Fundamental analysis
The erratic tariff plan of the US administration has shaken the entire global market, and market participants are scrambling for direction and certainty. This usually supports gold, which has risen 18% this year. Gold is also boosted by expectations of further monetary easing and central bank purchases by the Federal Reserve.
The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May has fallen to 19.5%, a sharp drop from 44.6% on Tuesday. The probability of a rate cut in June is 75.3%.
Technical analyst interpretation:
From the 4-hour chart, spot gold has completed a typical V-shaped reversal pattern, rebounding strongly after a deep correction. After hitting a low of $2956.67, gold prices launched a counterattack, breaking through the suppression of multiple moving averages in one fell swoop, and finally stood firm at the key resistance level of $3100. It is worth noting that gold prices are currently running above the rising trend line, which indicates that the short-term trend has clearly turned bullish.
Market Trend Analysis
After gold price broke through the key resistance of $3,100, the technical side showed a clear trend of strengthening. If it can hold this position, the next target will point to the historical high of $3,167.60, and a new round of upside will be opened after the breakthrough. Recent US inflation data and trade situation development will become the key catalyst for short-term trends.
Medium- and long-term trend analysis: With the continuation of global trade frictions and the rise of risk aversion, the safe-haven property of gold will continue to be exerted. However, traders are also wary of profit-taking pressure after the rapid rise of gold prices. If the subsequent Fed monetary policy turns to hawkish, it may put a certain pressure on gold prices. Overall, in the current environment of increasing global macro uncertainty, gold will continue to maintain an upward trend in the medium and long term.
GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD 
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✔Copy accurate trading signals✔Manage accounts🎁Stable profit of more than 210.8% per week🎁Success rate is as high as 98.55%, real-time communication: t.me/cryptoanalyst_baker
Signal entry: t.me/FcCygjylf
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.