Long

Daily 4XSetUps - Uptrend Channel In Danger, The Battle Has Begun

2025/02/23 - 8th Calendar Week
Daily 4XSetUps - Uptrend Channel In Danger, The Battle Has Begun
“the importance of the upward trend is self-evident and sets the direction!
are the bears now in command? what about us bulls? what is important?”

As I wrote yesterday already, the now bearish mood, if I may write it that way, solidified on WallStreet on Friday due to economic and inflation concerns. Bearish? Yes! Correct me if I'm wrong?! Nevertheless, the main trends - at least as far as price action developments are concerned - are still bullish. But it doesn't feel like a bullish mood and/or reporting! For better or worse, also because all three indices recorded significant losses on a weekly basis: the Dow lost -2.5% , the S&P 500 -1.7% and/or the Nasdaq 100 -2.3% .

Despite WalLStreet's robustness, Bank of America warned that 19 out of 20 of its valuation metrics suggest the S&P 500 is "trading above historical averages." A very clear bearish signal - but I'm not bearish (yet) either! Because traders and/or investors do not seem to be willing to sell at this level (yet). However, Savita Subramanian's strategists emphasize that the US leading barometer has appeared expensive for a long time - reference to the rating could still be justified. In a Thursday note, equity strategist Savita Subramanian said deregulation is "the last bullish theme" that has yet to be priced into the stock market. "Policy headlines have been dominated by tariffs - perceived to be growth-negative - but a growth-positive component of Trump 2.0 is deregulation, via cost cutting and efficiency gains," Subramanian said. Nevertheless, I think that, for better or worse, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy - i.e. its reaction to the US economic data - is likely to be given even greater importance by the majority of traders and/or investors. Because the monetary authorities are still looking at a green US stagflation that was politically ideologically wanted by the previous government - i.e. lower growth combined with higher US inflation - which is why most experts, observers, financial market participants like you & me, are currently assuming this weekend that the US Federal Reserve will hardly lower the key interest rate in 2025 - me too! Because tariffs are fundamentally a useful instrument for every economy - but only if at the same time there is an internal national offer that is better and/or cheaper for its own consumer! Otherwise the calculation doesn't add up - imports fall, the economy shrinks and/or a new wave of inflation rises if consumers don't consume less because demand will get greater than supply.

“Don’t let fears of what others think of you stand in your way. You must be willing to do things in the unique ways you think are best”
Ray Dalio

45227 : 2025/01/31 - Annual High 2025
45176 : 2024/12/04 - Annual High 2024
43486 : 2025/02/21 - last price action
41967 : 2025/01/13 - Annual Low 2025
37463 : 2024/04/19 - Annual Low 2024
Bullish upward trend is in danger - but not broken (yet)! As we see in the chart, the price action fell back into the upward trend channel for the first time on Friday, February 21st, 2025. This is not yet a bearish signal - but it does now signal the danger of the end of the upward trend. Because a break of the uptrend would definitely be the end of the current uptrend! Why? Because the classic bullish upward trend has been running since the annual low of 2024, on April 19th, 2024, at 37463 points, and/or also the annual low of 2025, on January 13th, 2025, at 41967 points. And as long as the price action is above? We can argue, to stay bullish! On Friday traders and/or investors sent the price action back into the upside trend channel for the first time since January 17, 2025. Which, in principle, poses no danger. Nevertheless, traders and/or investors could now start to argue bearishly as long as we do not reach new all-time highs again. Because the annual high in 2024 with 45176 points from 2024/12/04 and/or 2025 with 45227 from 2025/01/31 was more or less at the same time at their heights. On the other hand, the arguments of bullish traders and/or investors convince me more - and not just because the upward trend is longer. And therefore more consistent - probably more bulls are likely to take over the terrain than bears. And this is regardless of the fact that the bears have already sent the price action below the high of November 6th, 2024 at 43965 points - the day the US Americans re-elected Trump to the White House. Sure? Of course not! Therefore let this long YM1! 4XSetUp run - and or also trade and/or invest on isolated long stock picks that are self-sufficient with regard to Trump's US customs policy - with a good cash flow, yes, even pay out dividends.

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50000 : 2025/12/31 - Target Price
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43681 : 2025/01/21 - Entry Price
43486 : 2025/02/21 - last price action
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40000 - 2025/12/31 - Stop Price
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Have a good time
- regardless of the price action!
Aaron

“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.

Devise2Day

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