Long

Daily 4XSetUps - Trump Rally Broken But Not Over (Yet)

2025/02/22 - 8th Calendar Week
Daily 4XSetUps - Trump Rally Broken But Not Over (Yet)
“since Trump's re-election, price action has been trending sideways!
why is that? because of trump? other topics? and what does that mean?”

The now bearish mood, if I may write it that way, solidified on WallStreet on Friday due to economic and inflation concerns. Bearish? Yes! Correct me if I'm wrong?! The leading index Dow Jones Industrial fell by -1.69% to 43,428.02 points. The Nasdaq 100 , which is dominated by technology stocks, lost -2.06% to 21,614.08 points. While the broad-based S&P 500 fell by -1.71% to 6,013.13 points. This means that the short and/or medium-term chart picture becomes cloudy. Nevertheless, the main trends - at least as far as price action developments are concerned - are still bullish. But it doesn't feel like a bullish mood and/or reporting! For better or worse, also because all three indices recorded significant losses on a weekly basis: the Dow lost -2.5% , the S&P 500 -1.7% and/or the Nasdaq 100 -2.3% .

Differing sentiment data from industry and the service sector ultimately increased the selling pressure somewhat on Friday. "The S&P Global US Composite PMI dropped sharply to 50.4 in February 2025 from 52.7 in January, indicating a near-stagnation in the private sector, a preliminary estimate showed. It also marked the slowest pace of business expansion since September 2023, driven by a renewed contraction in services output that partially offset faster manufacturing growth." In addition, the consumer climate determined by the University of Michigan had deteriorated more than expected. "The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised sharply lower to 64.7 in February 2025 from a preliminary of 67.8, reaching the lowest level since November 2023. The gauge for current economic conditions was also revised lower to 65.7 from 68.7 and the expectations sub index was revised down to 64 from 67.3. The decrease in sentiment was unanimous across groups by age, income, and wealth." Furthermore, the fear of a through Tariffs triggered higher inflation - which doesn't make the mood on WallStreet bullish! It almost seems that the euphoria surrounding Trump has dissipated? What I don't assume - Trump has been in the White House only for just a month now! And it feels like a quarter? A year? Rather, observers - including me - are amazed at how the Ukraine conflict will (not) continue!? And/Or also in Israel!? His stated claim to want to position himself politically as a peacemaker - and to do so - I can and only want to take my hat off to that! And that with the strongest military force in our so-called West. Which is why I tend to assume that we will tend to see higher stock markets - and lower commodities - over the course of this year 2025. Yes, even much deeper if he can organize a peace between Putin & Zelensky, between Russia and Ukraine. But I am not a political analyst - and certainly not a supporter of war, let alone a warmonger. Just like he apparently does - and his US Republican Party!

“1+1=3. Two people who collaborate well will be about three times as effective as each of them operating independently,”
Ray Dalio

45227 : 2025/01/31 - Annual High 2025
45176 : 2024/12/04 - Annual High 2024
43965 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Day High
43486 : 2025/02/21 - last price action
42416 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Day Low
41873 : 2024/10/31 - October 2024 Low
41791 : 2024/11/04 - November 2024 Low
Basically, traders and/or investors are moving the in a bullish sideways trend, since Donald Trump was reelected, on the 6th November 2024. Sideways trend? Yes - look at the intraday day when Donald Trump was re-elected! Bullish? Yes - because the price action (so far) has hardly fallen below it, but rather always tries to break out upwards. It is easy to see in the chart that before the re-election, the low was 41416 points on November 6th, 2025. And the price action was only down on Friday, January 10th, 2025, as well as on Monday, January 13th, 2025 and/or even Tuesday, January 14th, 2025. Which can basically be seen as a bullish Trump rally! How high? How long? I don't know! But what I know, and what can also obviously be seen in the price action development, is that traders and/or investors have now more or less formed something like a trend reversal formation - with the annual low of 2025, on January 13th, 2025, at 41967 points. Which, in retrospect, proves that many traders and/or investors entered this price action zone bullishly. Nevertheless, I cannot and do not want to hide the fact that traders and/or investors have sent the price action below the high of the day of his re-election for the first time - i.e. below 43965 points again, from November 6th, 2025. Which is why I wouldn't be surprised if the bears have now tasted blood - or rather honey - and we might even experience the low of November 6th, 2025 again, scoring at 42416 points. Next days? Next weeks? I don't know! Maybe not at all??! Rather, Trump's topics seem to be unsettling many traders and/or investors. Above all, it feels like this - at least to me - that many people don't know what the US economy expects from March 2025? So starting next week! When US tariffs come into effect. However - it is how it is! As i wrote since days and/or weeks, if the US tariffs get into account since next month March 2025 and the US consumer dont get a Made In USA alternative for the goods, which will even be +...% more expensive? This could be the reason for the next US inflation wave! Which is why many bulls are a little more reserved. And/Or also wait for the company's numbers - such as Nvidia next Wednesday, February 26th, 2025. Which will be released after the final bell. And perhaps the price action in this index will also appear bullish again.

-----------------------------------------------
50000 : 2025/12/31 - Target Price
-----------------------------------------------
44635 : 2025/02/14 - last price action
43681 : 2025/01/21 - Entry Price
-----------------------------------------------
40000 - 2025/12/31 - Stop Price
-----------------------------------------------

Have a good time
- regardless of the price action!
Aaron

“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.

Devise2Day

Also on:

Related publications

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.