Beam Found Its Bottom | Starts To Grow! (How To Trade)Beam (BEAMBTC) hit a new low just yesterday and is now having a strong bounce... Looking at it closely, this can turn into more and additional growth can happen.
I've marked multiple resistance levels based on Fibonacci proportions on the chart.
I think it will move up and then start to retrace only to continue growing after this retrace. This can all develop in several weeks (2-3).
I am seeing at least 20%+ growth and even more depending on how the chart and markets develop.
Each day the charts are changing and we have certain rules setup based on experience for when to switch from bearish to bullish and vice-versa.
So you can see an analysis I post with a bullish chart and then it crashes and it goes contrary to the chart... This isn't good or bad, right or wrong, simply we adapt to whatever is going on.
So if BEAMBTC moves below EMA10, we are no longer bullish, instead, we switch to bear mode.
If the last low is broken, 0.0000634, then the chances of prices going much lower increases... So if we are trading this is where we put our stop-loss.
This is Alan Masters...
Thanks a lot for your support.
Namaste.
Altcoins
VIBE Action Starts Now | Full Trade Inside (Over 132% PProfits)You know what I always say right?
PATIENCE IS KEY!
The first lesson I learned while buying and selling cryptocurrency.
Early on getting started, making an unlimited amount of mistakes and losing money, after a few months (years) of doing it wrong, I realized that just waiting would have been a million times better than buying and selling with no idea of how to read charts, how the market works and how far up or down a crypto can alter...
And here is VIBEBTC (132%), below you can see our full trade from August...
Profits are starting to come in... That's the whole point of this article... Not to collect profits, but learning, knowing and benefiting from knowing and applying the fact that patience is key to win.
So if you manage to build your patience for trading or while trading, it will increase your chances and possibilities to win. You will be able to make better choices and you will also be able to better enjoy the profits that will come in.
Additional Tips for Trading & General
Build a plan (prepare for all outcomes).
Do your own research (if so you wish).
Get started! (when you feel ready).
Jump in & wait patiently (when you are 100% sure).
Hit like. (If you want to show your support or enjoy the content).
Enjoy your profits as they come by selling on target. (always secure profits by selling on target).
And be open to receiving and grateful for every single penny that you receive. (being grateful will bring more into your life of what you are being grateful for...)
It is not the trade, not the altcoin, not the trader, not the amount you put in that will decide how much money you make, how wealthy you can grow to be... It is all about your energy and your own life belief... So start believing that you are Rich if that is what you want to be or start being Rich, if that is what you want to be.
Get up and get started...
Namaste.
DEFENDING ALTSEASON - SHITCOIN MANIFESTOIn this post I will explain why there will be another alt season and alts will perform well at some point against Bitcoin.
1. Shitcoins piggy back on Bitcoin's success. For as long as Bitcoin is doing well, people will try to find the next Bitcoin. Many newcomers will feel they missed the boat or they will simply believe Bitcoin is outdated tech. Most people don't understand what Bitcoin is about, so the moment someone pitches to them Bitcoin 2.0 / 3.0 etc they start believing him. This is mainly based on greed as they think the'll get much better returns by betting on these shitcoins. At the same time whales and everyone here, wants to either increase their Bitcoin stash or USD stash in one way or another... and altcoins are on of the best ways to do so. People can't easily manipulate Bitcoin that is so big and liquid, but they can easily manipulate shitcoins. This is still the wild west! People can form groups to pump and dump these little shits, so they will keep on doing it. Doesn't matter who these people are or who these people will be, for as long as it possible for somebody to do it.
Remember that maximum opportunity comes at the point of maximum pain, not before that. Getting a 10-20-30x isn't easy as you have to get in when everyone else wants to get out. You have to be a contrarian and ready to feel pain for some time before you get the big returns. Do you think that all the people that made money in before haven't put or won't put some money back in? When something is down 90-99%, that means that the people that sold high can buy a lot more than what they had for much less, while they don't really feel pressure to sell if it goes up or down a bit as they have already made good money. That's part of the reason these cycles in all markets and not just crypto. Not everyone has lost money and not everyone has lost faith forever.
On the other hand it is funny to see people say that nobody could had seen this massive collapse coming. Since mid April I was calling for Bitcoin dominance to 70-77% and for now I am not convinced alts have bottomed. To me their bubble still hasn't completely popped yet and I find it amazing how altcoins are still holding this well. Notice however that I believe we are very close to the bottom... Based on several time analysis I've done and have put it on twitter both price wise and time wise we are getting there. The bottom should have already come and some other analysis says we are 50-120 days away. At the moment I can't see them dropping more than 25-50% from here, so maybe waiting for them to go lower is me being greedy, but I'd like to see them reclaim certain levels before I get in.
*Fun fact: Some alts topped in late 2013 - early 2014 and it took them 1100-1200 days to bottom. Just think about that...
2. Fundamentals in the space are complicated and there is no real model to evaluate shitcoins as an asset class. Simplistic models and explanations don't work and should be instantly dismissed. Nothing is as simple as finding one narrative and sticking with it. What I know for sure though is that shitcoins in 2012-2017 had way worse fundamentals in all aspects. Less exchanges, shady exchanges, no funding, worse technology, more pure scams, no regulatory clarity and no fiat on ramps. However they all pumped to insane highs... if you don't believe me go have a look at how several coins survived 2012-2017 on CoinMarketCap, check how much they had dropped, for how long they were falling and despite all that so many of them pumped more than 40x from their bottoms in a 2-3 months. Seriously zoom in and try to imagine how these people felt like.
I was in the Bitshares community for quite some time in 2016. That thing was going down forever... Seriously I thought it was dead. As I was growing and I was studying the technicals of Bitcoin, Bitshares and various other projects, I started realizing how flawed alts really were. The claims they were making were insane, unsubstantiated and relied on attracting money to the project. At that time the serial scammer Daniel Larimer left the project, people were having constant fights and all the proposals for improvements were awful. The Chinese community was blocking funding for several proposals and the whole thing was in death spiral. Yet it survived and had one of the biggest bubbles in Q2 2017.
Most people that claim shitcoins are dead haven't been there and haven't experienced what several of us have. Looking at charts and fundamentals along is irrelevant. If you don't get the feeling, if you don't see things happening live... You will never understand. Experience can't be substituted with knowledge. I've made and lost money on shitcoins and ICOs, and my biggest mistake was being emotional and saying that: I DON'T INVEST IN SCAMS, THESE PEOPLE ARE FRAUDS, i DON'T WANT TO MAKE MONEY LIKE THIS. I WILL ONLY TRADE BITCOIN AND THAT'S IT. THE CLAIMS THEY ARE MAKING ARE INSANE, THESE PEOPLE ARE JUST GREEDY LIARS, NOBODY WILL BELIEVE THEM! THESE CHAINS WILL BE ATTACKED AND GET WRECKED. This was literally how I was thinking and then they all took off. I seriously got suicidal at the time as people around me where making money off scams and I wasn't. May and June were awful... Every morning I'd wake up with Bitcoin going up and I wanted to die because I missed one of the biggest opportunities of our lifetime. Imagine how you'd feel looking at something going up and up, 50-100-200x in BTC terms from the bottom. Now why would you wanna feel that again? Personally I don't plan to feel this way.
3. Now let's look at some of the fundamentals of shitcoins compared to normal companies: Shitcoins don't have to pay taxes, they don't have specific investors whom they have to satisfy immediately, they can't go bankrupt, they don't have to do buybacks, they could technically survive without employees (Dogecoin), they can print and they have printed their own money which they can use to *bribe* people and they have the incentive to pump the price to make more money from the money they have printed (Ripple). Most aren't promising something right now, but something in the future. They claim they are building the infrastructure and technically this isn't false. They can cut down costs and keep on operating to an extend, until they they both run out of money and they keep getting delisted from exchanges. What they have that Bitcoin doesn't is money for advertising and insane bag holders that will shill their shitcoins to anyone just so that they can be able to get their money back.
It has to be understood that there will be more delistings and there will be several alts that will never recover. Having an alt season doesn't mean that everything goes up... Even before 2018 there were many shitcoins that died and are not around anymore. I estimate that until now there have been about more than 3000 altcoins, tokens, ICOs, projects that have died and more than half of the coins on Coinmarketcap are essentially dead or simply listed only on scammy illiquid exchanges that nobody uses.
You might think this is bad, but in my opinion it isn't. It is a good thing for the rest of the coins, not bad. The more useless and less liquid alts give their place to new, more 'interesting' assets, the bigger the potential they will have for big pumps. Initially everyone feels the pain as everything is interconnected in this space (as people hold several shitcoins along with Bitcoin), however once more awfully managed / scammy / illiquid projects are gone, the more money can be focused on 'good' shitcoins. The reality is that not everything will pump and the average Bitcoin returns will not be as high as 2017. Larger market caps, more coins now and more coming in, most highly inflationary, fractured liquidity on exchanges, Bitcoin being more scarce, the success of derivatives on Bitcoin and the current infrastructure for institutional investors favoring Bitcoin alone, all mean that alts won't give such great returns and will most likely never reach their old highs again. Yet this doesn't mean they are dead either for reasons I will explain below.
4. The lower alts go the more smart money and whales can buy while there are less sellers. Altcoins can create short term narratives that can fuel demand, they can give incentives for people to hold them (BNB) and staking is a new component that in my opinion will play an instrumental role in this new bull run. The more and more people hold and stake long term, the less supply there is on exchanges making pumps easier as there are less sellers. The current extremely low yield environment globally will make people chase both returns and yields and this is making altcoins extremely attractive. Bitcoin doesn't offer extra returns by holding it, altcoins do. Yes they are scammy and PoS is trash, but most people don't get why.
With most other assets being already too high, assets that are down significantly are extremely attractive. There are bubbles and antibubbles. Altcoins are an antibubble while real estate for example is a bubble in many places. Buying assets with inherently high risk at extremely low valuations helps you increase your potential returns substantially. The risk remains the same, but risk to reward x probabilities of success is the formula every investor should look at before making decisitions.
It has to be noted that most traditional investors don't believe in Bitcoin, but in Blockchain and Cryptocurrency. Not only that, but their goal is to maximize returns for themselves or their customers, so they are ready to buy anything. They don't care about feelings, revolutions and at a time where making money is really really hard altcoins will most likely be an oasis for them. Most people can't distinguish between Bitcoin and Shitcoins, so people in this space need to separate themselves from the masses. What you know isn't what the market knows, and you need to trade based on both.That's how I fucked up in early 2017, as I thought that the market knew what I knew. This means: manage risk very well, study your picks well, always use TA to get in and out and don't marry your bags.
What I find interesting is how people think Coinbase is irrelevant and that there will be no institutional money in shitcoins. Coinbase is extremely important as it holds ~5% of all Bitcoins and is one of the most important fiat gateways. Them listing new shitcoins is very important and Kraken has been following slowly too. What do you think people will do when Bitcoin goes up a lot and they also see these other things next to it go up even more? They will diversify of course...
Something that can't go unnoticed is how most big exchanges have been building infrastructure for big players. Creating OTC desks, custodial solutions, indices and even normal fiat on ramps / stablecoins. These aren't just for Bitcoin, but for shitcoins too. It is important to note that none of these existed in before 2018 for shitcoins. Exchanges have a much larger incentive that anyone else to make these things pump and succeed. The higher they go, the more people trade on their platform, the more money they make. These markets run on incentives and exchanges are the most powerful players off all in this ecosystem. A few years ago all shitcoins traded only against Bitcoin on a few illiquid exchanges, but now there are fiat pairs, altcoin pairs, more bitcoin pairs and more established shitcoin exchanges. Not relying 100% of Bitcoin or Poloniex is really important.
6. One of my followers mentioned something about current investors being wiser and avoiding altcoins, which I think is completely irrelevant for several reasons.
First of all most of them are already burned out and they don't have much money to put in. Most retail investors in the space are cumulatively worth ~50-100B which in the grand scheme of things is nothing. I am seeing this asset class growing to 20-30T before alts have their final bubble. I can't see why we can't get to the size of the Dot Com x5. Here we are reinventing money, there is a lot more fiat now than back then (thanks Central Banks), it is global, it is easily accessible and it has come at a time where fiat money is dying. No better place to have a mega bubble. So what matters more than anything is new investors coming in and with deeper pockets. The real 'flippening' is when old investors capitulate and new investors, smart money and whales take over. If you haven't noticed already, lots of people from before 2017 are gone because they lost pretty much most of their money or they are simply holding Bitcoin. That's why you don't hear from many people from back then. Burned investors usually don't come back until much later and usually near the top, like all the people that got burned in 2017-2019.
The reality is that most people here are doing this to make more money and don't really know what is going on here. Be that Bitcoin or altcoins... Even old investors will eventually start buying them once they start trending. These things trend for a while (be that up or down), and that's why they have these constant cycles. Study the cycles and understand why they occur. Understand why you shouldn't be betting on what is the biggest sin in trading: *this time is different*. This doesn't mean that you should fool yourself and see them as long term investments. Once you do your homework you will understand how this game is being played.
At the bottom smart money gets in (smart traders, whales, founders etc) and then they start pumping the shit out of these coins. Then retail money starts following and you get a bubble. This whole thing is about supply demand imbalances, it is all about strong hands taking over and weak hands slowly getting getting shaken out completely. 'Pumpers' need to do specific things to take over and pump the price to a level that they have sufficient liquidity to exit. So first they need a good entry and then they need a good exit as they can't keep pumping shit forever or they'll start losing money. 90% of the people don't like buying things that go down, but they like buying things that go up and this will never change. Most old investors might be able to avoid being the fool at the top, but this doesn't mean that there will be no new entrants.
7. Finally let's get into market caps, potential valuations and how Bitcoin fits in. I'd like to start by saying that shitcoins are very illiquid and these market caps are not real. What matters most is liquidity and who controls the supply. For a shitcoin to go from 10M to 1B you don't need to put 1B in. If you bought most of the supply for 5-10M during depression/capitulation, then with 50-100M you can take that asset to 1B. These market caps are an illusion that will eventually face reality and come crashing down. Markets are irrational most of the time and on the long run they oscillating around a mean/fair/rational valuation. We have seen such things again and again on exchanges like Huobi, where the worst of the worst shitcoins have pulled 10-60x over the last year. 1-10M USD shitcoins being in accumulation for several months, then pumping like crazy and then coming down like crazy
Part of the reason why alt seasons last 1-3 months and the down trends much longer, is because people need to chase the market, they must not have enough time to think, they must feel urge to FOMO and then only time and despair can wash them out for a new cycle to begin. When the price go up it doesn't mean that this money has come in the market. All it means is that there is an illusion of wealth being created and the new money that comes in near the top is going straight into the pockets of the smart money. The people that buy afterwards are playing a game of hot potato that is essentially redistributing the losses that don't occur at the bottom, but at the top.
During the main phase of the Bitcoin bull run, alts are being used to accumulate more Bitcoin and at the end to accumulate more USD. They serve as an exit for big players. By initially pumping Bitcoin you force people to chase Bitcoin and dump their altcoins, making it a lot easier for you to buy them cheaply. That's why after an altseason Bitcoin is going up stronger and alts go down hard. Bitcoin becomes more scarce and accumulated by strong hands, whereas alts are held by weak hands. So to me smart money either already has or will soon start accumulating altcoins. Big players can't simply buy the top or the bottom, so they always need some time to enter and exit positions, while they might even be sitting on big losses while they are trying to build their position.
My initial idea was that we'd first see new ATHs and a big increase in Bitcoin like we did in early and late 2017, but with alts bleeding so much this doesn't seem like a bad place for big boys to enter. They most likely will want to accumulate Bitcoin before the 2020 halving and this doesn't seem like a bad place to do so. We don't have much data on pre-halving alt seasons, but getting an alt season like the one in early 2016 seems pretty logical to me.
Perlin [PERLBTC] | New Binance AddThis is a new Binance Add (Perlin )
Perlin is a leaderless, highly scalable, PoS smart contract platform with a mission to power the future of decentralized technologies and accelerates the transformation of international trade to a purely digital, autonomous industry.
Wavelet (Perlin's ledger) is a highly scalable, PoS smart contract platform that achieves a throughput of 31,000+ TPS and consistently has 0 to 4 second time to finality, all of which is made possible by Wavelet, a DAG-based probabilistic consensus mechanism. It also has a leaderless proof of stake protocol which does not use committees or delegation ensuring the security properties of bitcoin but speeds comparable to private chains.
Perlin is pursuing several adoption strategies but is currently focused on the $US 11 Trillion international trade market with its distribution partners such as the International Chamber of Commerce, Enterprise Singapore, Dubai Chamber of Commerce and others.
The biggest IEO on Binance... Share your thoughts in the comments section.
Where is Perlin headed?
How do you like the project?
Are you in?
What about the team behind it?
Thanks a lot for sharing.
Namaste.
Nuls (and most altcoins) stuck in downward trend vs. BTC.Using Nuls as an example: since I was considering if I should buy some now, due to my personal interest in its fundamentals. However its chart, like with most other altcoins, look horrible at the moment.
Here, the chart shows NULs finding support on top of the thick-green LVDT line on the 3hr chart (note, for BTC, the 3hr, as well as 4hr, and especially the 1D chart works better).
However, LVDT guide bands are in an overall downward trend vs. BTC. I will wait till the overall LVDT bands to plateau before I am confident of investing into altcoins again.
My indicators used:
LIVIDITIUM + 2STDEV-AEONDRIFT {EMA}
LVDT guide-bands + 2 level Standard Deviation bands + with a set of detection algorithms implemented.
FUSIONGAPS {EMA} ( color fills removed here)
Net market Bullish/Bearish state oscillator, with DFG and D2FG indicators implemented.
also check out the following accompanying oscillators.
DIFFERENTIAL FUSIONGAPS {DFG} = Momentum oscillator
DOUBLE-DIFFERENTIAL FUSIONGAPS {D2FG} = Accelerator oscillator
Also the FUSIONGAPS{EMA} 50/15-Series = that shows the FG, DFG, and D2FG lines for 50/15 {EMA}
{SMA} version also available.
OmiseGo Full Chart Analysis + AlanMasters TOP Signals DetailedOmiseGo (OMG) Overview
OmiseGO (OMG) is a public Ethereum-based financial technology for use in mainstream digital wallets. OmiseGo enables real-time, peer-to-peer value exchange and payment services agnostically across jurisdictions and organizational silos, and across both fiat money and decentralized currencies. Designed to enable financial inclusion and disrupt existing institutions, access will be made available to everyone via the OmiseGO network and digital wallet framework.Omise, which serves business customers in Japan, Thailand and Indonesia, currently operates an ecommerce platform that lets companies take payments from customers online. It has a full-featured white label payment management platform for these businesses. With OmiseGO, and the OMG token, Omise aims to simplify the barriers to payments by removing the need to own a bank account.
OmiseGo (OMGBTC) Chart Analysis
Here we are looking at the chart for OmiseGo (OMGBTC) on Binance. We are going to be looking at it from late 2018 until today and focus on the main signals that I look for to find out bottomed out altcoins, or in a potential reversal zone.
It is all pretty simple and easy, and we use the same signals almost always as they work pretty well in general, but we also know about chart patterns, candlestick reading, price action, and so much more...
Bullish divergence on the MACD (purple arrow). Notice the price of OMGBTC going lower. Now look at the MACD (the first indicator below the chart) and notice the price moving up... That's it, bullish divergence.
MACD Bullish crossover (green circle). On the same indicator, the MACD, notice how the MACD (blue line) crosses up the Signal (orange line), I call this bullish crossover... Most likely it has another name in the books but this one easily gets the message across.
RSI hit oversold and is trending up. The last indicator at the bottom is the RSI. When it goes below 25 we call this "oversold". This is a buy signal on its own.
Low volume. Volume is still low, this is a bearish signal. You want to see above-average volume when you see a bounce of this type... But this can also mean that volume will come up later and that there is still lots of room left for growth.
Break above EMA10. We use EMA10 (green line) as the main resistance/support (depending on where it is sitting compared to the price action). Below EMA10 = Bearish. Above EMA10 = Bullish.
These are some of the basics, you will see these over and over and over. I came up with these by looking at the charts for hours and seeing how the candles and indicators behave, then practiced to see if I made the right conclusions... I made it all up.
In another trade idea, we can take a look at candlestick reading which we also use commonly.
Feel free to leave a comment, follow or like if you enjoyed this content.
Namaste.
Educational video about shitcoin trading on many topicsIn this video I go through:
How to choose your exchange you buy a coin (differences between exchanges)
How to set your sell orders depending on the exchange you are on
Optimal exits (orderbooks + TA)
How to avoid your target not getting hit
How to learn faster
How to keep yourself in check when trading
Opportunity cost
When to get out and buy another coin
Why it isn't worth buying a coin that is up 200% right now
And more! All with examples of my mistakes (for which I will provide proof on twitter) explaining what went wrong.
Bitcoin Dominance | Gauging Contiunations and ReversalsBTC's dominance has been growing since the crypto bear market began at the beginning of 2018. Now we see a large flag formation that provides us with evidence that the dominance might continue growing. This also provides further evidence to support our forecast:
Once the BTC dominance starts to show a technical reversal, the bear market will likely come to an end:
Bitcoin To The Moon Pt.6 (The End?!) - Altcoins Market UpdateBitcoin has been doing really good lately, it is moving up strong and into the positive.
My indicators are all over the place, but there is something more interesting to look at than indicators... Trend lines...
Yes, we are now above a major trend line, we broke through it like it was butter and Bitcoin is giving out signals of additional bullish action in the coming days and weeks ahead... Don't get it twisted, this is just the beginning of a trend change!
The altcoins market keeps on doing good, and Bitcoin turning bullish confirms each and everyone of the signals that we have been talking about since late June. We rightfully spotted the bottom and now we reap the rewards.
Altcoins Market Update
When the alts where going down, we focus on rebuy and reload.
Now that many are moving up strong, hitting our targets and generating profits... It is time to sell.
Buy low to sell high... BACK TO BASICS.
I will be posting a full update on Bitcoin soon, but I wanted to say hi before that.
Hi amazing human being, how are you doing today?
I am hoping and wishing that live gives you everything that you desire and for your days to always become better, for you to be everything that you want and attract infinite wealth and success.
Thanks a lot for reading...
Come back and read my update... Maybe tomorrow... maybe today!
NAMASTE!
Bitcoin To The Moon Pt.3 (Altcoins * BULLS * Drive To The Moon)Bitcoin just broke another resistance, the $6400 price level, and is moving up as expected.
The Altcoins were crying for quite a while, bleeding and bleeding after the bears fed themselves on them for a long time, but now, they alts aren't crying anymore.
The signals and indicators that I am looking at are telling me that Bitcoin will continue on this path. I see slow but steady growth happening in the coming days, with a few strong burst up with more relaxation (I mean retrace), while the Altcoins market takes most of the attention and go on a bull run for us to get paid.
We have been expecting a bull run for the Altcoins right about this time, June/July, and July it is now and we are seeing coin after coin go for 50%+ increase in price in a very short time frame. This is a very strong signal that the time has come. That the action is already here.
We had a nice close yesterday (1st July) on the daily time for Bitcoin, with more signals developing and showing that another push up might come in the next 3-5 days. Ok Bitcoin, take your time, we are happy to wait.
Anyways, I will be posting our Bitcoin updates here. We are going bullish short term, we are bullish long term... We need only be careful with the medium term...
I will be keeping you updated, if you like you can come and read me everyday, about Bitcoin's movement so that we can know what the Altcoins will do next.
As I've mentioned before, I am highly interested in the altcoins because of their huge growth potential. See how the top coins at the famous altcoins exchanges are exploding in just a few days. 20%, 30%, 50%... That's a lot. That is really nice... It is actually great.
I write/share what I get from the charts. Basically I translate what the charts are saying. There are many different factors that can affect the cryptocurrency markets, but please know than when you read my analysis, it is purely based on the charts indicators, candles and signals unless I specify otherwise.
So you can use this information to your advantage. Not to make decisions based on the info that I share but more as a tool that can increase your understanding of where we are right now in this game.
So please read my trade ideas everyday, read the other great analysts we have here and use that information to make your decision on what, when and how much to trade. Basically you can see my article as a point in favor or against, and based on the whole market picture, my side, his side, your side and everything else... You will end up with a good idea of why Bitcoin will go to the moon next.
Note: I learned that some people are not happy with the word "moon". I love the moon, but that has nothing to do with Bitcoin. When I say moon I simply mean "up". Just as Bitcoin bounced from a price of $5800, after going down, it will also bounce in the future after going up.
So it can reach $8,000 and go down, as it can be $10,000 and then retrace. When I say "moon" I don't mean a new all time high, simply, that we are going to make money... That our profits are on their way...
I LOVE YOU TODAY AGAIN.
Namaste.
Study: Why you should stop trading BTCUSDHello all and welcome to my analysis of trading patterns in crypto markets!
Before we begin, there are several key assumptions we must establish:
The reference data is based on trading prices and volumes on Bitfinex. This is because I believe that Bitfinex is the leading exchange in the cryptocurrency market due to its popularity, despite higher recent BTCUSD volumes on Binance.
Only USD-based pairs are examined
The index is a dollar-volume weighted aggregate of margin-tradeable alt coins on Bitfinex, excluding BTCUSD
The correlation and beta calculations are on a 14-period basis, which are benchmarked against BTCUSD
Given limitations with the data, the index is examined only on a range from October. An second index, consisting of only ETHUSD and LTCUSD will be provided to show the longer timespan
In this snapshot, I have split the frame into three timeframes (A, B, C), which highlight a changing market dynamic over time.
Timespan A captures the peak of bitcoin's 2017 hype. The lowest correlation point is -0.65 which was accompanied by a beta of -1.65, while the highest correlation was 0.80 with an index beta of 3.44. During this span, a relatively volatile correlation (refer to the standard deviation of correlation oscillator) between the altcoin index and BTCUSD can be examined, with similar volatility patterns in the beta. The interesting component here is that, during the price rise, alts would follow BTCUSD when BTCUSD was rising, but experience inflows of money from BTCUSD when the latter was falling. As such, the market mentality was bullish - the money would flow from BTCUSD to alts and then back around. By examining the index beta over this period, you can see how alts outperformed BTCUSD when times were good and when times were bad.
Timespan B begins to paint a different picture, where the volatility in correlation and beta measurements is far less drastic. Over this span, the lowest correlation was 0.28, showing that directional movement between the index of altcoins and BTCUSD remained positive, even when weak. It is important to note the longer duration of high correlations during this period, which were accompanied by similar movements in beta.
Timespan C is where we currently are and, in my opinion, this is a very interesting setting in the market. As the chart shows, the lowest correlation was 0.50, while beta almost consistently remained above 1. The standard deviation of correlation had been only trending downwards from Timespan A , which is reflected in the relatively consistent correlation measurements over the period. The conclusion to be made is that altcoins, in aggregate, have become strongly correlated to BTCUSD, while a beta above 1 indicates higher performance in alts than BTCUSD.
TL;DR: chart BTCUSD and trade altcoins based on BTCUSD momentum. As the statistics show, the market mentality has shifted away from moving money from one crypto to another, but rather buying/selling alts and BTCUSD simultaneously.
Furthermore, we can examine a longer timeframe in the chart below:
In this chart, the correlation and beta, as well as the standard deviation of correlation, are based on a dollar weighted aggregate of ETHUSD and LTCUSD, which were the longest standing altcoins on Bitfinex. The narrative described above remains the same, where the correlations have become far stronger in recent times compared to their historical trends, while the beta has become stronger over time, gaining more ground above a measure of 1 during the high correlation periods.
The final point is an examination of dollar volume in BTCUSD compared against altcoin dollar volume:
As can be seen from the chart, the dollar volume in BTCUSD has been losing ground to the dollar volume in USD-based alt pairs (on Bitfinex)
CRYTOCURRENCIES - OPEN DISCUSSIONOnly for Educational Purposes: Don't you think that trade platforms are making unviable the cryptocurrencies that are being traded there? Numbers and Graphics with Stats and projections are made based on the numbers provided by those platforms but there is no way to verify. What if someone is manipulating those numbers for a selected group of people who's have an strong interest?
My understanding of the market cyclesThe idea is purely for educational purposes and SHOULD NOT be considered as trading advice.
Based on my understanding of the market cycles I have tried to summarize how the money flows into the crypto market using Bitcoin USD and Large Cap Index/ BTC price as reference.
The large cap index consists of XRP, ETH, LTC, ETC, NEM, XMR - basically large caps which are consistently in the top 15 since 2016 and covers more than 50% of the altcoin market. There are several reasons why newer alts(like BCH, Cardano, Neo) are not considered for the analysis, lack for sufficient historical data being the primary reason.
Moreover, I have seen the market to move in tandem i.e. all altcoins go up and down togeather so the index is sufficient to study the market cycles.
I hope you like the idea. Please share and follow incase you find it useful.
I am also curious about why
Strategy for ALTCOINS VS BTC (Beginners) - How To Split Your BTCOne of the many issues beginners face when trading ALTCOINS, is how to split their money.
Where to invest? How much to invest? How long to wait?, etc.
It happens that in this market, the cryptocurrency market, opportunities are endless, and we are bathed with a wave of new opportunities all the time, everyday, but this can turn into
a problem rather than a solution. A disadvantage rather than an advantage. Why is that?
Well, if we don't have a plan we tend to make mistakes, because of lack of experience.
We might join a trade and buy an altcoin, we feel all pumped up and hyped up, and feeling good and positive. The next minute another opportunity comes, and this one seems bigger and better, and somehow you don't want to wait, you move to the new one, on and on. Leaving loses behind each time you jump from coin to coin, and worst yet, the action seems to start, almost always, as soon as you go.
So how do we deal with this problem?
How can we plan to take advantage of all the opportunities, without worries and end up in success?
That's the question that I am here to answer for you.
THE 10% PLAN
Let's say you have 1 BTC (Or 0.10 BTC), or any amount for that matter, and a awesome, charismatic, helpful and optimistic trader, like myself (:P), posts a new idea and you want to join. How much of your capital will you put in?
Will you put in 100% Of your capital? NO.
"Well this is a huge trade", "This guy knows his stuff", "I will take the chance to recoup my losses", etc.
Remember that we do not, and cannot, predict the market. We look at signals which points to a certain direction, but the market can choose to do whatever it wants. That's why we set targets and also stop loss.
So instead of putting all your money in one place, divide all your trades in increments of 10.
You have 1 BTC, then you have the chance to open 10 trades.
You don't have to join them all at once. You are not losing anything if your money is resting fine.
This new trade I just posted, you can put in 10%. Set it and forget and you will do well.
The next trade, go ahead, another 10%. Now you are feeling good, because you have a plan and you feel strong.
And even if the trade goes wrong, you have 80% of your capital safe, and in the worst case scenario, you will see a 10% loss.
On the other hand, if the trade goes as planned, and you get to earn, you can be looking at a maybe a 100, or even 200 percent.
Follow this strategy wherever you go.
And trust, that in time, you will see your money grow.
NAMASTE.
Anatomy of BTC-ALTS Relationship: Makings of a MEGA Bull CycleLong gone are the days where it's a simple "BTC UP, ALTS DOWN" and vice versa.
In fact, I would say that it now resembles more of a general "BTC UP, ALTS UP" and vice versa, though it's not as simple as that, with many small waves within waves, each with its own unique characteristics.
However, in the grand scheme of things, you can probably tell that both go up in tandem in the largest trend. Also, there is some pattern we can glean from this, but you really need to delve deeper into the price action comparison between BTC & ALTs since beginning of 2017 to get a clearer picture of the characteristics of the "waves within waves".
Twitter Sentiment ScriptGBPUSD |-0.208333333|Negative
i.imgur.com
Buy on the bounce ???
Little python script i would like to share to the TV community i made it works out twitter sentiment for most things, crypto currency's or forex.
ie: Today GBPUSD = Negative, and we can see the charts agree.
Todays Forex Sentiment <---
Crypto Currency Sentiment Example
# Shows forex currency + how many times its been mentioned on twitter within 24hrs + trade symbol +
# percentage of change in mentions + sentiment from twitter by breaking each sentence the symbol has been
# mentioned in into individual words then rating the words using a lexicon of words and feelings a score
# has been assigned from -1 to 1, then based on the score a rating of POSITIVE or NEGATIVE is given
# using a threshold. Results are saved in a txt file and printed to terminal
Crypto Version:
github.com
Forex Version:
github.com
