Volatility in Focus: A Trader's Perspective on S&P 500 Futures1. Introduction
Volatility is a critical concept for traders in any market, and the E-mini S&P 500 Futures are no exception. Traditionally, traders have relied on tools such as the Average True Range (ATR) and Historic Volatility (HV) to measure and understand market volatility. These tools provide a snapshot of how much an asset's price fluctuates over a given period, helping traders to gauge potential risk and reward.
ATR measures market volatility by analyzing the range of price movement, often over a 14-day period. It reflects the degree of price movement but doesn’t differentiate between upward or downward volatility. Historic Volatility looks at past price movements to calculate how much the price has deviated from its average. It’s a statistical measure that gives traders a sense of how volatile the market has been in the past.
While these traditional tools are invaluable, they offer a generalized view of volatility. For traders seeking a more nuanced and actionable understanding, it's essential to distinguish between upside and downside volatility—how much and how fast the market moves up or down.
This article introduces a pragmatic, trader-focused approach to measuring volatility in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures. By analyzing daily, weekly, and monthly volatility from both the upside and downside perspectives, we aim to provide insights that can better prepare traders for the real-world dynamics of the market.
2. Methodology: Volatility Calculation from a Trader’s Perspective
In this analysis, we take a more nuanced approach by separating volatility into two distinct categories: upside volatility and downside volatility. The idea is to focus on how much the market tends to move up versus how much it moves down, providing a clearer picture of potential risks and rewards.
Volatility Calculation Method:
o Daily Volatility:
Daily upside volatility is calculated as the percentage change from the prior day's close to the next day’s high, assuming the next day’s high is higher than the prior day’s close.
Daily downside volatility is the percentage change from the prior day's close to the next day’s low, assuming the next day’s low is lower than the prior day’s close.
o Weekly Volatility:
Weekly upside volatility is determined by comparing the previous Friday’s close to the highest point during the following week, assuming the market went higher than the prior Friday’s close.
Weekly downside volatility is calculated by comparing the previous Friday’s close to the lowest point during the following week, assuming the market went lower than the prior Friday’s close.
o Monthly Volatility:
Monthly upside volatility is measured by taking the percentage change from the prior month’s close to the next month’s high, assuming prices moved higher than the prior monthly close.
Monthly downside volatility is calculated by comparing the prior month’s close to the lowest point of the following month, assuming prices moved lower than the prior monthly close.
3. Volatility Analysis
The E-mini S&P 500 Futures exhibit distinct patterns when analyzed from the perspective of upside and downside volatility. By measuring the daily/weekly/monthly fluctuations using the trader-focused approach discussed earlier, we gain valuable insights into how the market behaves on a day-to-day basis.
Key Insights:
Trend Observation: The data reveals that during periods of market distress, such as financial crises or sudden economic downturns, downside volatility tends to spike significantly. This indicates a greater propensity for the market to fall rapidly compared to its upward movements.
Implication for Traders: Understanding these patterns allows traders to anticipate the potential risks and adjust their strategies accordingly. For instance, in highly volatile environments, traders might consider tightening their stop losses or hedging their positions to protect against sudden downturns.
4. Comparative Analysis: Rolling Volatility Differences
To gain deeper insights into the behavior of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures, it’s useful to compare the rolling differences between upside and downside volatility over time.
Rolling Volatility Differences Explained:
Rolling Analysis: A rolling analysis calculates the difference between upside and downside volatility over a set period, such as 252 days for daily data (approximately one trading year), 52 weeks for weekly data, or 12 months for monthly data. This method smooths out short-term fluctuations, allowing us to see more persistent trends in how the market behaves.
Volatility Difference: The volatility difference is simply the upside volatility minus the downside volatility. A positive value suggests that upside movements were more significant during the period, while a negative value indicates stronger downside movements.
Key Insights:
Trend Observation: The rolling difference analysis reveals that downside volatility generally dominates, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty or financial crises. This confirms the common belief that markets tend to fall faster than they rise.
Implication for Traders: Traders could use rolling volatility differences to anticipate changes in market conditions. A widening gap in favor of downside volatility may signal increasing risk and the potential for further declines. Conversely, a narrowing or positive rolling difference could suggest improving market sentiment and potential opportunities for long positions.
5. Volatility Trends Over Time
Understanding the frequency and conditions under which upside or downside volatility dominates can provide traders with valuable insights into market behavior. By analyzing the percentage of days, weeks, and months where upside volatility exceeds downside volatility, we can better grasp the nature of market trends over time.
Volatility Trends Explained:
Percentage of Days with Greater Upside Volatility: This metric shows the percentage of trading days within a given year where the upside volatility was higher than the downside volatility. It highlights the frequency with which the market experienced more significant upward movements compared to downward ones on a daily basis.
Percentage of Weeks with Greater Upside Volatility: Similarly, this metric calculates the percentage of weeks in a year where the upside volatility was greater than the downside. It provides a broader perspective on market trends, capturing sustained movements within weekly timeframes.
Percentage of Months with Greater Upside Volatility: This metric reflects the percentage of months in a year where upside volatility exceeded downside volatility. It is particularly useful for identifying longer-term trends and understanding the market’s behavior over extended periods.
Key Insights:
Trend Observation: Historically, again, we can see the data shows that downside volatility tends to dominate, especially during periods of market stress. However, there are years where upside volatility has been more frequent.
Implication for Traders: Traders can use these insights to adjust their strategies based on the prevailing market conditions. In years where downside volatility is more frequent, defensive strategies or hedging might be more appropriate. Conversely, in years where upside volatility dominates, traders might consider more aggressive or trend-following strategies.
6. Key Takeaways for Traders
The analysis of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures’ volatility, broken down by daily, weekly, and monthly intervals, provides crucial insights for traders. Understanding the distinct patterns of upside and downside volatility is essential for making informed trading decisions, particularly in a market that often behaves asymmetrically.
Practical Conclusions for Traders:
Risk Management: Given the dominance of downside volatility, traders should prioritize risk management strategies. This includes using stop-loss orders, protective options, and other hedging techniques to mitigate potential losses during volatile periods.
Strategic Positioning: Traders might consider adjusting their position sizes or employing defensive strategies during periods of heightened downside volatility. Conversely, when upside volatility shows signs of strengthening, more aggressive positioning or trend-following strategies could be beneficial.
Timing Entries and Exits: Understanding the patterns of volatility can help traders better time their entries and exits. For instance, entering the market during periods of lower downside volatility or after a significant downside spike can offer better risk-reward opportunities.
Adaptability: The key to successful trading in volatile markets is adaptability. Traders should remain flexible and adjust their strategies based on the prevailing market conditions, as indicated by the volatility analysis.
By incorporating these insights into their trading approach, traders can better navigate the E-mini S&P 500 Futures market, enhancing their ability to capitalize on opportunities while managing risks effectively.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
ATR
Beating the S&P500 (SPX) Buy&Hold strategy by 16 timesS&P500 (SPX) strategy using Stochastic RSI Min-Max, normalized Volatility and Trailing Stop signals, beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 16 times
Embarking on the quest to time the market accurately, the 'Holy Grail' of strategies, led me to create a script to approach this goal. Unlike other strategies that I tested, this one not only surpasses the long-term S&P500 Buy&Hold approach but does so by a remarkable 16.38 times!
Initially, I employed an A.I. program based on an LSTM Neural Network using TensorFlow. Despite achieving a 55% next-day prediction accuracy for short/long positions, I sought improvement using a heuristic pine-scripting approach, incorporating stochastic RSI oscillators, moving averages, and volatility signals.
With default parameters, this strategy, freely available as "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" delivered a staggering 2,663,001% profit since February 1871. In the same period, the Buy&Hold strategy "only" generated 162,599% profit. Picture this: a $1,000 investment in 1871 would now be worth $26,630,014 by February 2024. Check it out for yourself loading this strategy.
The script operates as a Stochastic RSI Min-Max script, automatically generating buy and sell alerts on the S&P500 SPX. What sets it apart? The strategy detects "corrections," minimizes losses using Trailing Stop and Moving Average parameters, and strategically re-enters the market after detecting bottoms using tuned Stochastic RSI signals and normalized Volatility thresholds.
Tailor its parameters to your preference, use it for strategic exits and entries, or stick to the Buy&Hold strategy and start new buy trades at regular intervals using buy signals only. In the pursuit of minimizing losses, the script has learned the effectiveness of a 9% trailing stop on trades. As you can clearly see on the upper graph (revolving around 100), the average overall green surfaces (profits) of all trades are much bigger than the average red surfaces (losses). This follows Warren Buffets first rule of trading to "Never lose money" and thus minimizing losses.
Update: Advanced S&P500 Stochastic RSI Min-Max Buy/Sell Alert Generator
I have also created an Alerter script based on the same engine as this script, which auto-generates buy and sell alert signals (via e-mail, in-app push-notifications, pop-ups etc.).
The script is currently fine-tuned for the S&P500 SPX tracker, but parameters can be fine-tuned upon request for other trackers or stocks.
If you are interested in this alerter-version script or fine-tuning other trackers, please drop me a message or mail xplorr at live dot com.
How to use this Strategy?
Select the SPX (S&P500) graph and set the value to "Day" values (top) and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right).
Select in the Indicators the "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" script and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right)
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values "Percent Profitable" and "Net Profit" (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters).
How to interpret the graphical information?
In the SPX graph, you will see the Buy(Blue) and Sell(Purple) labels created by the strategy.
The green/red graph below shows the accumulated profit/loss in % of to the initial buy value of the trade (it revolves around 100%, 110 means 10% profit, 95 means 5% loss)
The small purple blocks indicate out-of-trade periods
The green graph below the zero line is the stochastic RSI buy signal. You can set a threshold (green horizontal line). The vertical green lines show minima below that threshold and indicate possible buy signals.
The blue graph above the zero line is the normalized volatility signal. You can set a threshold (blue horizontal line) affecting buy signals.
The red graph above the zero line is the slower stochastic RSI sell signal. You can set a threshold (red horizontal line). The red areas indicate values above that threshold.
However real exits are triggered if close values are crossing below the trailing stop value or optionally when the fast moving average crosses under the slow one. The red areas above the threshold are rather indicative to show that the SPX is expensive and not ideal to enter. Please note that in bullish periods the red line and areas can stay at a permanent high value, so it is not ideal to use as a strict sell signal. However, when it drops below zero and the green vertical lines appear, these are strong buy signals together with a high volatility.
These Parameters can be changed
Buy Stochastic Lookback
Buy Stochastic Smoother
Buy Threshold
Buy Only After Fall
Minimum % Fall
Sell Stochastic Lookback
Sell Stochastic Smoother
Sell Threshold
Sell Only With Profit
Minimum % Profit
Use Sell MA
Fast MA Sell
Slow MA Sell
MA Sell Threshold
Use Buy Volatility
Volatility Smoother
Volatility Threshold
Use Trailing Stop
Use ATR (iso of a fixed percentage for the trailing stop)
ATR Lookback
Trailing Stop Factor(or fixed percentage if "use ATR" is false)
Trailing Stop Smoother
Important : optimizing and using these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
Mastering Stop-Loss with ATR IndicatorMastering Stop-Loss and Take-Profit with ATR Indicator
What is the ATR Indicator?
The Average True Range (ATR) indicator is a nifty tool that helps traders gauge the market's volatility. Simply, it tells you how much an asset typically moves in a given timeframe.
Placing Stop Loss to Avoid Getting Stopped Out
Step 1: Identify ATR Value
Look at the ATR indicator on your chart; it's usually at the bottom or top of your screen.
Note the ATR value; the higher it is, the more volatile the market.
Step 2: Setting Stop Loss
Set your stop loss beyond the ATR value to avoid getting prematurely stopped due to regular market fluctuations.
For instance, if the ATR is 50, consider placing your stop loss at least 60 points away to give your trade room to breathe.
Understand ATR's Role
ATR not only helps with stopping losses but also guides in setting realistic take-profit levels.
It gives you an idea of how much the asset can move in a given time, assisting you in capturing profits before a potential reversal.
Final Tips for Beginners
Adapt to Market Changes: ATR values change as market conditions shift. Stay adaptable and reassess your stop-loss and take-profit levels accordingly.
Practice on Demo Accounts: Before diving into live trading, practice using the ATR indicator on demo accounts. Gain confidence and refine your strategy without risking real money.
In essence, the ATR indicator is your ally in navigating market volatility. By using it wisely, you can enhance your risk management, safeguarding your trades from unnecessary stop-outs while optimizing your profit potential. Happy trading! 📈✨
Thriving in Volatile Market ConditionsNavigating financial markets often involves confronting periods of high volatility. For traders, the question invariably arises: what is the best way to deal with volatility? This article aims to provide a comprehensive overview of understanding market volatility, managing risks, choosing appropriate trading styles, and utilising key analytical tools to help traders survive and thrive in volatile conditions.
The Meaning of Market Volatility
Market volatility refers to the degree of variation in a financial instrument's price over a specific time frame. Simply put, it's the measure of how wildly or moderately the price of an asset, such as a stock, currency, or commodity, fluctuates.
Several factors contribute to market volatility. Macroeconomic indicators like inflation rates, unemployment data, and geopolitical events can send ripples through the market. Furthermore, company-specific news, such as earnings reports and mergers, can result in sharp price swings. Understanding volatility is essential for traders because it directly impacts the risk and reward profile of any trade.
Why Volatility Isn't Always Bad
Contrary to popular belief, market volatility isn't necessarily a negative phenomenon. While it does introduce an element of unpredictability, it also creates opportunities for traders to capitalise on price movements.
Volatility expands the trading range, allowing for potentially higher returns when executed correctly. The key is to manage market volatility, meaning aligning trading strategies to exploit these fluctuations rather than shy away from them. In more static markets, such opportunities are limited. Volatile markets can be highly lucrative, especially with the right approach to risk management.
Risk Management in Volatile Markets
In volatile market conditions, effective risk management becomes even more crucial. One indispensable tool is the stop-loss order. Unlike stable markets where narrower stop-losses can work, volatile markets often require wider stop-losses to avoid premature exits due to temporary price spikes.
Position sizing is another pivotal element. In a volatile market, the theory states it may be best to reduce the size of individual trades, usually risking between 1-2% of your account balance. Smaller positions equate to reduced risk, allowing traders to absorb unexpected market shifts without significantly damaging their accounts.
Diversification in the context of trading volatile markets often means spreading trades across multiple, uncorrelated markets. For instance, if you're trading equities, consider diversifying into commodities or currencies that are not strongly correlated with stock market performance. This strategy can provide a safety net, diminishing the impact of adverse moves in any single market.
Trading Styles for Volatile Markets
When it comes to thriving in these market conditions, selecting an appropriate trading style is paramount. Two styles that are often effective in volatile markets are swing trading and scalping. Swing trading involves holding positions for several days or weeks to capitalise on expected upward or downward market shifts. This style allows traders to take advantage of larger price swings and bypass the short-term noise often prevalent in volatile markets.
Scalping, on the other hand, is all about making quick profits from small price gaps that are usually created by order flows or spreads. In volatile markets, these opportunities arise more frequently, allowing scalpers to profit from quick moves.
Both styles have their own set of advantages and disadvantages, but they share the common trait of requiring strict risk management techniques to be effective. The choice between them largely depends on a trader's risk tolerance, time commitment, and skill level.
Tools for Analysing Volatility
In order to navigate volatile markets effectively, traders often turn to specific technical indicators designed to measure and interpret volatility. Two such popular tools are Bollinger Bands and the Average True Range (ATR), both of which you’ll find waiting for you in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
Bollinger Bands consist of a middle band, which is a moving average, and two outer bands calculated based on price volatility. When the bands widen, it suggests increased volatility; conversely, narrowing bands indicate lower volatility.
The Average True Range, on the other hand, measures market volatility by calculating the average range between the high and low prices over a specific period. A rising ATR signifies increasing volatility, while a falling ATR indicates decreasing volatility.
The Bottom Line
Successfully navigating volatile markets requires not just strategic planning and the right tools but also a strong psychological approach. Maintaining discipline and focus in the face of extreme price swings is essential. Mindfulness practices and a well-structured trading plan can help traders keep strong emotions in check.
For those ready to apply these principles in a live trading environment, consider opening an FXOpen account. Once you do, you’ll gain access to hundreds of markets, from stable to highly volatile. Good luck!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
How to Use the Supply and Demand Deluxe Indicator
Welcome, fellow traders, to this exciting tutorial where we dive deep into the world of supply and demand analysis using the powerful Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator that I launched this morning. Prepare yourself for an enjoyable learning experience as we unravel the mysteries of supply and demand levels across various timeframes. So, grab your favorite trading beverage, sit back, and let's embark on this adventure together!
Section 1: Understanding Supply and Demand Analysis:
Before we delve into the specifics of the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, let's understand the importance of supply and demand analysis in trading. Supply represents the availability of shares or contracts for sale, while demand represents the number of buyers interested in purchasing those shares or contracts. By analyzing the interaction between supply and demand, traders can identify potential turning points, support and resistance levels, and areas of high buying or selling interest. This knowledge forms the foundation of effective trading strategies, and the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator is here to assist us in this journey.
Section 2: Introducing the Supply and Demand Deluxe Indicator:
The Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator is a powerful tool designed specifically for TradingView. Its primary goal is to identify supply and demand levels on various timeframes, including weekly, daily, and hourly. With visual plots and customization options, this indicator empowers traders to make well-informed decisions based on the principles of supply and demand. It caters to traders of all styles and timeframes, from day traders to long-term investors.
Section 3: Getting Started: Installing and Adding the Indicator to Your Chart:
To begin using the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, install it on your TradingView platform. Visit the TradingView website, navigate to the indicators section, and search for "Supply and Demand Deluxe (Stock Justice)." Click on the indicator to access its details and add it to your chart. The indicator will be added and ready to unlock its potential.
Section 4: Exploring the Key Components and Functionalities:
Let's explore the key components and functionalities of the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, which help us identify and interpret supply and demand levels effectively.
4.1 Daily and Weekly Pivots:
Daily and weekly pivots provide essential reference points. The indicator allows you to plot the previous week's high and low, yesterday's high and low, and the midpoint of yesterday's range. Visualizing these pivots helps gauge potential areas of interest and determine price behavior.
4.2 Weekly Supply and Demand Levels:
Weekly supply and demand levels are critical for understanding the broader market context. With the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, you can plot these levels, customize the number of levels displayed, choose line colors and styles, and decide whether to extend the lines. Enabling the "Show Price" option enhances your analysis.
4.3 Daily Supply and Demand Levels:
Similar to the weekly levels, daily supply and demand levels provide valuable insights into intraday price dynamics. Customize the number of levels displayed, choose line colors and styles, and determine line extensions. Enabling the "Show Price" option visualizes corresponding prices.
4.4 Hourly Supply and Demand Levels:
Intraday traders will appreciate the Hourly Supply and Demand Levels feature. The indicator automatically identifies these levels based on the highest and lowest values of the past 10 bars. Customize the number of levels displayed, choose line colors and styles, and even show prices associated with these levels.
4.5 ATR Expected Moves:
The ATR Expected Moves feature calculates expected price moves based on the Average True Range (ATR). Customize the lookback length and multipliers. Extend lines, choose colors and line styles, and display prices. Incorporating ATR Expected Moves helps set realistic profit targets and manage risk effectively.
4.6 Futures Levels:
For futures traders, the indicator provides specific levels for the Midnight Open, London Open, Asian Open, and the 8:30am EST level. These levels act as potential reference points, aiding in identifying intraday opportunities and aligning trades with global market dynamics.
Section 5: Customizing the Indicator to Fit Your Trading Style:
The Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator offers customization options to align with your trading style and preferences.
5.1 Adjusting Input Parameters:
Fine-tune the indicator by adjusting parameters such as the number of levels plotted, lookback length, multipliers for ATR calculations, and more. Experiment with different settings to better suit your trading strategy.
5.2 Customizing Visual Elements:
Customize line colors, styles, and extension options to enhance aesthetics and readability. Choose colors, line styles, and decide whether to extend lines to the left, right, or both. This level of customization ensures a visually pleasing trading experience.
Section 6: Practical Applications and Trading Strategies:
In this section, we explore practical applications and trading strategies using the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator.
6.1 Identifying Key Supply and Demand Levels:
The indicator helps identify key supply and demand levels across different timeframes. Analyzing these levels in conjunction with other technical analysis tools can identify high-probability trade setups.
6.2 Using Pivots for Reference Points:
Pivots, both daily and weekly, serve as crucial reference points. Consider price reactions around these pivots and consider them in conjunction with supply and demand levels to gain valuable insights into market dynamics.
6.3 Incorporating ATR Expected Moves in Risk Management:
Use the ATR Expected Moves feature for risk management. Set realistic profit targets and define appropriate stop-loss levels based on expected price moves. This statistical framework helps adjust position sizing and manage risk effectively.
Section 7: Tips and Tricks for Maximizing the Indicator's Potential:
To enhance your trading experience with the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, consider these tips and tricks:
7.1 Leveraging Different Timeframes:
Analyze supply and demand dynamics across different timeframes. Use higher timeframes for overall market context and lower timeframes for precise entries and exits. Combining multiple timeframes improves analysis accuracy.
7.2 Combining Multiple Timeframes:
Combine the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator with other technical analysis tools such as moving averages, oscillators, or chart patterns. This synergy provides confirmation signals and increases the probability of successful trades.
Section 8: Conclusion:
Congratulations on completing this comprehensive tutorial on the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator! We've covered the fundamental concepts, explored features and functionalities, and discussed practical applications and trading strategies. Experiment with different settings, customize visual elements, and integrate the indicator into your trading plan. As you gain experience, you'll be well-equipped to make informed trading decisions. Keep exploring, stay disciplined, and may the markets bring you success!
Stop Losses: A Trader's Best DefenseIn a perfect world, every trade would go our way, but alas this is usually not the case. A stop loss is a risk management tool used by traders and investors to minimize their losses when trading. It is a predetermined price level at which a trader's position will automatically exit the market, causing the loss to be realized. Stop losses are crucial to any trading strategy, as they help traders limit their losses and stay disciplined. In this blog, we will look at what stop losses are, why they are important, how to set realistic stop losses, and five different examples of stop losses with a description of how to set the stop loss.
What are Stop Losses?
A stop loss is an order to sell a security when it reaches a particular price. It is a predetermined price level at which a trader's position will automatically exit the market, causing the loss to be realized. This means that if the price of the security falls to the stop loss level, the trader's position is automatically closed, and any losses incurred are limited to that level. Stop losses are essential because they help traders limit their losses and stay disciplined.
Why are Stop Losses Important?
Stop losses are important because they help traders limit their losses and stay disciplined. In trading, it is easy to become emotional and let your losses run. Stop losses help traders avoid this situation by automatically exiting the market when the price reaches a predetermined level. This ensures that losses are limited, and traders can move on to the next trade without being emotionally affected by the previous loss.
Setting Realistic Stop Losses
Setting realistic stop losses is crucial to any trading strategy. A trader needs to consider the volatility of the security, the trading style, and the risk-reward ratio when setting stop losses. The stop loss should be set at a level where the loss is acceptable but not too close to the current price level, as this may result in the stop loss being triggered prematurely. A stop loss should also not be set too far away from the current price level, as this may result in the trader losing more than they are willing to risk.
Stop Loss Examples
Below we will list five examples of setting effective stop losses. For consistency, we are going to use the same long stop loss example, but these same examples can be set for stop losses for short positions as well.
Percentage-Based Stop Loss: A percentage-based stop loss is a stop loss that is set at a specific percentage below the purchase price. For example, if a trader wants to place a long at $0.088602 and sets a 0.5% stop loss, the stop loss would be triggered at $0.88160. For a short stop loss at 0.5%, you would add the value instead and have a 0.89035 stop loss. To set a percentage-based stop loss, the trader needs to determine the percentage they are willing to risk and place the stop loss order at that level.
ATR-Based Stop Loss: An ATR-based stop loss is a stop loss that is set based on the average true range of the security. The average true range is a measure of volatility and is calculated by taking the average of the high and low prices for a particular period. To set an ATR-based stop loss, the trader needs to determine the number of ATRs they are willing to risk and place the stop loss order at that level. For a long stop loss, you would subtract the ATR times its multiplier from the current price. For a short-stop loss, you would add the ATR times its multiplier to the current price. The unique upside to this stop-loss style is the ATR accounts for market volatility which can aid your risk management and help set more appropriate stop losses.
Using Moving Averages or Super Trend: Moving averages and super trend are technical indicators that can be used to set stop losses. Moving averages are calculated by taking the average price over a specific period, while the super trend is a trend-following indicator that uses the average true range to calculate the stop loss level. To set a stop loss using moving averages or super trend, the trader needs to identify the period and place the stop loss order at the appropriate level. The Moving Average or Supertrend can then act as a moving stop loss as it trails the price.
1. Moving Average:
2. SuperTrend:
Donchian Channels: Donchian channels are a technical indicator that can be used to set stop losses. Donchian channels are created by taking the highest high and lowest low over a specific period and plotting them on a chart. To set a stop loss using Donchian channels, the trader needs to identify the period and place the stop loss order at the appropriate level. In the example below we use a more standard 20-period Donchian level to identify areas of lowest low interest that would be a good place for a stop loss. If we were setting a short order we would look to recent highest highs as potential stop-loss areas
Conclusion
Stop losses are crucial to any trading strategy, as they help traders limit their losses and stay disciplined. When setting stop losses, traders need to consider the volatility of the security, the trading style, and the risk-reward ratio. Stop losses can be set using many different techniques, including percentage-based, ATR-based, using moving averages or super trend, and Donchian channels. By setting realistic stop losses, traders can minimize their losses and stay disciplined, which is essential for long-term success in trading.
WHAT IS ATR AND HOW TO USE IT?Investing and trading in the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to the game. With so many different indicators and metrics to consider, it can be difficult to know which ones to focus on. One key metric that traders often use to measure market volatility is Average True Range (ATR). In this blog post, we’ll explore what ATR is, how it’s calculated, why it’s important for analysis, and how it can be used as an exit strategy. We’ll compare ATR with other popular technical indicators as well, so you have all the information you need to make informed decisions about your trading strategies.
Defining ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is an important metric used by traders to measure market volatility. It’s a technical indicator that can provide insight into strength or weakness in the markets, and can be used to identify breakouts and set stop-loss points for trades.
ATR is calculated as an exponential moving average of true range values over a given period. True range is defined as the maximum of three values: the current high minus the current low, the absolute value of the current high minus the previous close, and the absolute value of the current low minus the previous close. This calculation provides a more accurate reading than simply measuring one day’s trading range or attempting to track changes in individual stock prices.
ATR values are generally presented in decimal form (e.g. 0.1 or 0.3) rather than percentage form (e.g. 10% or 30%). This allows for more precise measurements when tracking market movement, which can be especially important for day traders who need to act quickly on market changes and opportunities.
Traders use ATR to gauge overall market volatility as well as individual stock movements over time; it can also be used for trend identification and momentum strategies when combined with other technical indicators such as moving averages and Bollinger bands. And because ATR takes into account both recent highs and lows, it can also help traders set stop-loss points for their trades – at least until they become comfortable enough with markets to make decisions without them.
Whether you’re new to trading or seasoned professional, ATR is an invaluable tool that should be incorporated into your analysis strategy if you want to stay ahead of markets and take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves.
How to Calculate ATR
In conclusion, ATR is a valuable tool for traders and investors alike. It helps measure market volatility and can be used to set stop-loss points as well as combine with other technical indicators to get a more accurate picture of where the markets are headed. Understanding and employing ATR can help traders become better informed about their investments, allowing them to make more informed decisions when entering or exiting positions.
Analyzing ATR in Trading
When it comes to analyzing the markets for trading decisions, Average True Range (ATR) is an invaluable tool that helps traders gain insight into market volatility. By understanding how ATR works, investors can measure the current conditions of a stock or index in comparison to its past performance, allowing them to identify trends and set stop losses accordingly. It also provides them with an effective exit strategy so they can take advantage of opportunities while minimizing their risk exposure. Ultimately, having a good grasp of this indicator will allow traders to make more informed decisions when engaging in securities markets globally.
Using ATR as an Exit Strategy
Using ATR as an Exit Strategy Average True Range (ATR) is a powerful technical indicator that can be used to measure market volatility and identify trends. It can also be employed as an exit strategy in trading, allowing traders to determine when the best time is to exit their positions and take profits or minimize losses. When using ATR as an exit strategy, it is important for traders to set the parameters for their strategy correctly. The most common approach is to set a multiple of ATR for both profit taking and stop loss levels. For example, if a trader sets the multiple at two times ATR, then they will take profits when the price moves by two times the average true range from their entry point and cut their losses if it moves against them by two times the average true range. In addition to setting up these parameters in advance, traders should also consider any potential rewards and risks associated with using ATR as an exit strategy. On one hand, it can help protect capital from large losses due to quick market movements, but on the other hand, it may cause traders to miss out on larger gains if prices move further than expected. There are various types of ATR-based exit strategies that traders can employ. Some of these include: fixed percentage or dollar exits; trailing stops; dynamic exits; time-based exits; or support/resistance exits based on chart patterns or technical indicators such as moving averages. Each type of strategy has its own advantages and disadvantages depending on market conditions so it is important for traders to understand which one will work best for them before implementing it into their trading system. Finally, traders should look at real-world examples of profitable trades made using ATR as an exit strategy. By studying these examples they can gain insight into how successful trades were managed and use this knowledge when formulating their own strategies going forward. With enough practice and experience, traders will eventually become adept at using ATR as part of their trading system and be able to capitalize on profitable opportunities more effectively in future investments.
ATR vs Other Technical Indicators
Average True Range (ATR) is a technical indicator used to measure market volatility and identify trends. Unlike other indicators, ATR measures the degree of price movement instead of the strength or weakness of a trend; this makes it ideal for spotting trading opportunities in volatile markets. Compared to indicators like Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), ATR offers traders a greater understanding of market volatility so they can more easily recognize good entry and exit points.
In addition, ATR allows traders to set stop-loss points that are tailored to their individual risk tolerance levels. This helps them reduce losses when prices move against them but still provides an opportunity for profits if prices turn back in their favour. Ultimately, ATR is not meant to be used as an isolated indicator when making decisions about trades, but combining it with other indicators will improve accuracy when entering and exiting positions.
Overall, ATR is a powerful tool designed for those looking to gain insight into market volatility and make informed decisions about their trades. By using this indicator in combination with others, such as RSI and MACD, traders can better understand the kind of environment they are working with which can help them maximize profits while minimizing losses.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Introducing the Volatility Adjusted ADX (VADX)In this video, Stock Justice introduces you to the Volatility Adjusted ADX (VADX), a powerful tool that combines trend strength and market volatility. Learn how to customize your settings for optimal analysis and how this indicator, with its proprietary mathematical formulation, offers a nuanced perspective on market dynamics. Discover the benefits of normalized data and how to read and interpret the VADX line in conjunction with other indicators. All of this, delivered in Stock Justice's engaging style, will empower your technical analysis toolkit. Be ready to trade safe, trade smart!
Top 10 Technical Indicators for Successful TradingTop 10 technical indicators for successful trading
Introduction:
Technical indicators are essential tools for traders to analyze market trends, identify potential trading opportunities, and manage risk. These indicators are mathematical calculations based on past price and volume data that can help traders make informed decisions about buying or selling assets. In this article, we'll discuss the top technical indicators that traders can use to enhance their trading strategies.
Moving Average:
A moving average is a widely used technical indicator that helps traders identify market trends. A moving average is calculated by averaging the price of an asset over a specific period, such as 10 days or 50 days. This indicator smooths out the price data and makes it easier for traders to identify the direction of the trend. When the price is above the moving average, it's considered a bullish trend, and when the price is below the moving average, it's considered a bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the strength of a price trend. The RSI is calculated by comparing the average gains and losses over a specific period, typically 14 days. The RSI value ranges from 0 to 100, with values above 70 indicating an overbought market, and values below 30 indicating an oversold market. Traders can use the RSI to identify potential trend reversals and overbought or oversold conditions in the market.
Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger Bands are another widely used technical indicator that helps traders identify potential trend reversals and price volatility. Bollinger Bands consist of three lines: a moving average in the center, and two outer bands that represent the standard deviation of the price data. When the price is within the bands, it's considered normal market volatility. However, when the price reaches the outer bands, it's considered an overbought or oversold condition, and a potential reversal may be imminent.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that helps traders identify changes in momentum and trend reversals. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A signal line, which is a 9-day EMA of the MACD, is also plotted on the chart. Traders can use the MACD to identify potential buy and sell signals, as well as divergences between the MACD and the price of the asset.
Fibonacci Retracements:
Fibonacci Retracements are a popular technical indicator that helps traders identify potential support and resistance levels. Fibonacci Retracements are based on the idea that prices tend to retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they may continue in the original direction. Traders can use Fibonacci retracements to identify potential entry and exit points, as well as stop-loss levels.
Stochastic Oscillator:
The Stochastic Oscillator is another momentum oscillator that helps traders identify overbought and oversold conditions in the market. The Stochastic Oscillator is calculated by comparing the closing price of an asset to its price range over a specific period. The Stochastic Oscillator value ranges from 0 to 100, with values above 80 indicating an overbought market, and values below 20 indicating an oversold market. Traders can use the Stochastic Oscillator to identify potential trend reversals and overbought or oversold conditions in the market.
Average True Range (ATR):
Average True Range (ATR) is a technical indicator that measures the volatility of a stock or currency. Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., ATR calculates the average range of price movements over a specific period, taking into account gaps in price movements. ATR is typically calculated over a period of 14 days, but traders can adjust this period to fit their specific trading strategy.
To calculate ATR, traders first calculate the true range (TR), which is the greatest of the following:
Current high minus the current low
Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
Once the true range is calculated, traders can calculate the ATR by taking an average of the true range over a specific period.
ATR can be used to measure volatility in the market, helping traders to identify potential trading opportunities. When ATR is high, it indicates that there is a lot of volatility in the market, which can present opportunities for traders to profit. Conversely, when ATR is low, it indicates that the market is relatively stable, and traders may want to avoid entering trades at that time.
Ichimoku Cloud:
The Ichimoku Cloud, also known as Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, is a technical indicator that provides a comprehensive view of potential support and resistance levels, trend direction, and momentum. The indicator was developed by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda in the late 1930s and has gained popularity among traders in recent years.
The Ichimoku Cloud consists of five lines, each providing a different view of the market:
Tenkan-Sen: This line represents the average of the highest high and the lowest low over the past nine periods.
Kijun-Sen: This line represents the average of the highest high and the lowest low over the past 26 periods.
Chikou Span: This line represents the current closing price shifted back 26 periods.
Senkou Span A: This line represents the average of the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen, shifted forward 26 periods.
Senkou Span B: This line represents the average of the highest high and the lowest low over the past 52 periods, shifted forward 26 periods.
The area between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B is referred to as the "cloud" and is used to identify potential support and resistance levels. When the price is above the cloud, it indicates a bullish trend, and when the price is below the cloud, it indicates a bearish trend.
Traders can also use the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines to identify potential entry and exit points, with a bullish crossover of the Tenkan-Sen above the Kijun-Sen indicating a potential buying opportunity, and a bearish crossover of the Tenkan-Sen below the Kijun-Sen indicating a potential selling opportunity.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, technical indicators are valuable tools for traders in the financial markets. The Average True Range (ATR) can be used to measure volatility in the market, while the Ichimoku Cloud provides a comprehensive view of potential support and resistance levels, trend direction, and momentum. By using these indicators in combination with other technical analysis tools and market knowledge, traders can make informed trading decisions and improve their chances of success. It's important for traders to experiment with different indicators and find the ones that work best for their trading strategy.
Strategy Coding E01: Adding a custom Trailing-StopIn my experience there are phases to creating a strategy. In this episode we will cover one of the most important steps: establishing an exit strategy. Exiting a position is crucial to risk management. If your entries are terrible but you have a good exit strategy, you might get by and not lose a lot of your capital. And vice-versa, if your entries are great, but your exit strategy is terrible, you my not make any profit.
Concepts we will cover in this episode:
Integrating an indicator value as a trailing stop.
Lowering the trailing stop sensitivity by using the Average True Range (ATR).
Customizing the ATR value.
Brief introduction to 'modules'.
Average True Rangehe Average True Range is a volatility indicator measuring how much the price of an asset has moved over a certain number of periods, in other words how volatile the asset is. It was created by J. Welles Wilder and was featured in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading System”. It was originally designed as a volatility indicator able to capture gaps in commodities, since a volatility formula based solely on the high-low range would miss that movement. However, the ATR can be used for stocks, indexes and currencies as well.
What traders use the ATR for is to determine their profit target and the optimal price level for placing protective stops by predicting how far the asset may move in the future. The Average True Range is most commonly calculated on a 14-period basis, but as with most other indicators, it can be fine-tuned according to each traders unique trading system.
The ATR is a directionless indicator, basically a type of moving average of the assets price movement over a certain period of time, which does not indicate the direction of the trend. You can see how the ATR is visualized on a chart on the screenshot below.
As you can see, We have plotted in every opened trade the value of the ATR at that moment. We've used the default 14-period basis, which means that the average price movement over the last 14 periods ( candles ) is 151 pips for the first trade, 137,8 for the second, and 196,2 for the last one. A trader can therefore expect the price to move within the range of 151 / 137 and 196 pips during these trades, thus giving a hint of where his/her profit target and protective stops should be.
As you can see. We have used 2 methods for using the ATR on these trades.
On the first trade, we have opened a position on the pullback of the previous Resistance, the SL and the TP have been calculated using the ATR multiply one time.
151 pips for the SL and 151 for the TP.
The second trade is based on a continuation trend strategy and also on this occasion the TP and SL have used the multiply ATR 1 time.
Last trade, Again Pullback on previous support with ATR multiply 2 times.
How is the ATR calculated?
The Average True Range is calculated by estimating the True Range for each of the included periods and then finding their average using a formula, which is shown below.
The True Range is defined as the greatest of the following:
– The difference between the current high and the current low
– The difference between the current high and the previous close in an absolute value
– The difference between the current low and the previous close in an absolute value
The first scenario is used when the current high is above the previous period's high and the recent low is below the preceding period's low (the previous candle is engulfed by the current one).
The second and third scenarios are used when a gap has occurred or the current period is engulfed by the previous period. Since Wilder was interested in measuring the distance between two points, and not in the direction of movement, here we use absolute values.
After we've calculated the True Range for each period we have decided to track back, we must now calculate the Average True Range by adding these values and calculating their average (as we've already said, the ATR is a moving average of the TR values).
As mentioned before, the most commonly used and set as default in most trading platforms' period settings is 14 periods. After we estimated the ATR for the initial 14 periods, we must then use the following algorithm to estimate future values:
Current ATR = / 14
How to trade the ATR
You've already learned that the Average True Range acts as a tool to measure the degree of interest or disinterest in a price movement. This means that inspiring moves are often accompanied by large TRs, especially at the beginning of a move, while weak moves are followed by narrow ranges. This allows us to use this indicator to gauge the enthusiasm behind every move, including breakouts.
For example, a price reversal, accompanied by an increase in the ATR value would suggest strong sentiment toward that move and reinforce the reversal, while a weak ATR would suggest proceeding with caution.
This is also true when the price breaks through support or resistance. If the breakout is supported by a rise in the ATR, it will be most likely a real move, but waning support from the indicator would suggest that the breakout might be false.
👑 THE UNCROWNED BEST INDICATORS PT.1That's the Part.1 of my collection of Uncrowned best indicators for trading.
I choose to call this post " uncrowned " because these indicators are firstly free resources and second well utilized and combined are much better than most of the paid indicators.
Often the best indicators are forgotten just because seem too basic or have no marketing behind them.
I can assure you, the top perform algorithm traders at least use for sure one of these 5 indicators. ( or more.. )
Making a great algorithm requires time to find the right combination of indicators and patience in backtesting.
If you don't know some of these indicators, I suggest you have a look, you can find them for free here in Tradingview.
N.1 AROON
The Aroon indicator is a technical indicator that is used to identify trend changes in the price of an asset, as well as the strength of that trend. In essence, the indicator measures the time between highs and the time between lows over a time period. The idea is that strong uptrends will regularly see new highs, and strong downtrends will regularly see new lows. The indicator signals when this is happening, and when it isn't.
The indicator consists of the "Aroon up" line, which measures the strength of the uptrend, and the "Aroon down" line, which measures the strength of the downtrend.
The Aroon indicator was developed by Tushar Chande in 1995.
Here is an Idea of how to use it, very basic. You can combine this indicator with your own favorite ones to create your best strategy.
Check the settings to find the right setup.
N.2 STOCH RSI
I personally love The Stochastic RSI. This indicator as the normal stochastic shows ranges between zero and 100 and is created by applying the Stochastic oscillator formula to a set of relative strength index (RSI) values rather than to standard price data. Using RSI values within the Stochastic formula gives traders an idea of whether the current RSI value is overbought or oversold.
The StochRSI oscillator was developed to take advantage of both momentum indicators in order to create a more sensitive indicator that is attuned to a specific security's historical performance rather than a generalized analysis of price change.
The StochRSI was developed by Tushar S. Chande and Stanley Kroll and detailed in their book "The New Technical Trader," first published in 1994. While technical indicators already existed to show overbought and oversold levels, the two developed StochRSI to improve sensitivity and generate a greater number of signals than traditional indicators could do.
The StochRSI deems something to be oversold when the value drops below 20, meaning the RSI value is trading at the lower end of its predefined range, and that the short-term direction of the underlying security may be nearing a low a possible move higher. Conversely, a reading above 80 suggests the RSI may be reaching extreme highs and could be used to signal a pullback in the underlying security.
Along with identifying overbought/oversold conditions, the StochRSI can be used to identify short-term trends by looking at it in the context of an oscillator with a centerline at 50. When the StochRSI is above 50, the security may be seen as trending higher, and vice versa when it's below 50.
The StochRSI should also be used in conjunction with other technical indicators or chart patterns to maximize effectiveness, especially given the high number of signals that it generates.
N.3 ATR Average True Range
I think the ATR is the base of any algorithm or at least every algorithm trader has at least one setup with this indicator to calculate the Stop loss or the Take profit or both together.
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The ATR may be used by market technicians to enter and exit trades and is a useful tool to add to a trading system. It was created to allow traders to more accurately measure the daily volatility of an asset by using simple calculations. The indicator does not indicate the price direction; rather it is used primarily to measure volatility caused by gaps and limit up or down moves. The ATR is fairly simple to calculate and only needs historical price data.
The ATR is commonly used as an exit method that can be applied no matter how the entry decision is made.
N.4 The Bullish and Bearish Engulfing
Well, this indicator, free by tradingview show exactly the presence of Bullish and Bearish reversal made from Engulfing pattern.
It can be a great confirmation indicator for your strategy if used together with other indicators inside your algorithm.
N.5 WAE - Waddah Attar Explosion
Last but not least, an incredible free indicator. Great for confirmation entry as well as Volume and trend direction.
Trading volume can help an investor identify the momentum of a currency pair and confirm a trend. If trading volume increases, prices generally move in the same direction and can provide a heads-up if volume diminishes. Once volume begins to diminish and the fuel for the trend starts to dry up, a reversal or ranging market may be on the horizon. This particular volume indicator has only three components to interpret, visually straightforward, easy to understand, and user-friendly.
I hope at least one of these Five uncrowned indicators will become part of your arsenal.
Please, support my work with likes and comments!
Average True Range... and BollingersATR is a great indicator designed to show you the previous ranges of the previous candles depending on the value chosen, in this example I have done 6 periods, so you can see in this chart I have highlighted when we have peaks and troughs and one thing to do is compare the times of day this activity happens, you can see at certain times the atr climbs, it stalls at others or can fall, so ATR is showing us previous candles range, so if you are in a trade you want the range to be growing usually so that your trade can head to TP, but the important thing to takeaway is the fact that price is moving alot, this is because it is experiencing higher level of trading activity price is trending, where as a falling ATR reading means typically things are slowing down or accumulating, remember this doensnt give direction though as price can still move up or down despite a falling range per candle. However what it can do is tell you good times to look for trades, you can filter down by time the best time to take trades based on your strategy winning or losing in the peaks of troughs. ATR can also be used to determine stop losses of TP, by taking the the reading and using a 2xreading stop loss or TP, the more volatile the market the bigger your stop losses and tp will be, but more volatility generally correlates well with that idea, not only does it offer greater protection it also prevents missing out on good moves. So 2nd part is Bollinger bands we can see how it works, it basically again is telling you the range of things, so Id like you to compare the reading on ATR to the Bollingers, and you can see when ATR falls and the Bollingers are squeezing tight we have very little to trade, energy is low and range is small, In crypto I have heard this term called the crab which I have to say... I do find quite amusing. When ATR is rising the Bollingers expand creating a wide cloud, so on the last box, where price falls despite ATR falling... what is the difference this time? That is right, Bollingers are not squeezed together, which tells us the ATR reading is acting like it is small and stuck in a squeezing formation but in fact we are just in an expansion of the Bollinger moving slowly. What do I want you to take away from this? Just a deeper thought about which market conditions are best for your strategy and how to avoid times which will not really offer a good trade yet ect, and have a look for patterns in how you trade around these volatility indicators! Happy trading... More to come
Tutorial | How To Calculate "Flush Zones" Using ATRHoly sell-off Batman. Today we finally had some volatility, and a 2-3% down day in the stock indices. This range expansion seems like a perfect day to come back with another lesson on market tendencies and using ATR to calculate flush zones. What's a flush zone you ask? It's where the weak hands get flushed.
For this lesson, I'm using prior session lows as the levels to measure the zone, but you can apply this concept to any significant level. And remember, you can do this with any instrument. Try it in AAPL or BTCUSD or your favorite symbol.
Tutorial | How To Use ATR & Volume Profile To Project Highs/LowsThere are many ways to project price levels when looking at un charted territory (e.g. new highs). Elliot Wave, Gann, fractals, Fibonacci, or a measured move, all are methodologies that can provide levels to watch to predict range expansion when there is no price to reference.
In this lesson, I show how to use another approach, utilizing the 7-Day Average True Range (ATR) and the prior session Point of Control (POC).
Settings
ATR
Period: 7 Day
EMA
P.S. I didn't mention in the video, but check out how well an ATR Projection worked leading into Jackson Hole Friday. 4470 prior day POC to a high the next day at 4510. I went to California schools, so math ain't my strong suit, but I think that's 40 points or 1 ATR.
ATR From ScratchHi, traders!
The volatility is one of the most important market indicator that could describe the instrument’s behavior. That’s why it’s deadly impossible to use it to predict the further price movements. But what is volatility? It’s the measure of price changing. The more volatility is, the more you can earn or lose, the price is prone to change. So, dear subscribers today we’ll speak about Average True Range (ATR), one of the most powerful indictors of volatility.
Well, from the very beginning, let’s speak about True Range (TR) and understand how to calculate it. True range is maximum of pairwise absolute difference between high and low, open and close, maximum and minimum.
TR=MAX(|high-low|,|high-close|,|low-close|)
So, it shows us how much the instrument’s price has changed during the one bar. It’s Whereas the Average True Range is Average of TR during some period.
ATR=sum(TRs of period)/length of period
It’s considered to be rather informative, but it’s kinda difficult to make any decisions. For example, is you see on the chart above we have two coins: MAKER and Bitcoin. The definition of ATR of the first is bigger sometimes, but the real volatility (price change) of the second is much higher. Thus, we would advise you to use ATR Normalized, cause you can make it in percentage scale and considering any period you like to make it more representative and smart.
The ATR may be used by market technicians to enter and exit trades, and is a useful tool to add to a trading system. It was created to allow traders to more accurately measure the daily volatility of an asset by using simple calculations. The indicator does not indicate the price direction; rather it is used primarily to measure volatility caused by limit up or down moves. The ATR is fairly simple to calculate and only needs historical price data.
The ATR is commonly used as an exit method that can be applied no matter how the entry decision is made. One popular technique is known as the "chandelier exit". The chandelier exit places a trailing stop under the highest high the stock reached since you entered the trade. The distance between the highest high and the stop level is defined as some multiple times the ATR. 2 For example, we can subtract three times the value of the ATR from the highest high since we entered the trade. Also it can be used as the tool that can help you to choose tokens that suits your strategy.
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
How to set the RIGHT Stop loss!Hey hey traders!!
Setting the "right" stop loss is a vital skill, yet for many traders... its a random act. This video will help you find stcutrue in setting the right stop loss, a stop loss that has the best chance of not being hit and allowing your trade to workout!
For us that comes down to basics:
1. Use the ATR value
2. Enter only via the fibs (definite entry)
and by following this process we have achieved great things so far, even increased our win ration by a solid 12% in February (since we added it)
If you have questions, feel free to ask!
All the best and good luck trading!
Indicators Vs Price action - or both?Many new traders face a magnitude of problems early in their trading journey. One of the biggest dilemmas is caused by the vast amount of indicators available. There are the free basic indicators like RSI, MACD, Bolli Bands and the list goes on. Then you have custom indicators - Paid for, free trails - each offering their own edge.
The issue is not what they can or can't do - it's more bout how they are used, even why they are used.
I put together the tutorial mostly to show what each of the basic & some custom indicators show on the same chart - at the same time.
The idea was to highlight what they can spot and compare it side by side with price action. Also using still simple methods but not automatically drawn indicators such as Elliott and Wyckoff Schematics.
Over the last 20 years, I have collected around 14Gb's worth of PDF's, MT4 indicators, expert advisors, BOTS n all sorts. I play with them and revert back to the old faithful.
PRICE
Take a look at this first chart. A simple RSI indicator that can help identify a shift in the trend.
This is not a strategy - it's a simple "spot the move"
This type of basic understanding of what a lagging indicator is telling you can actually be beneficial. But not necessary.
The next chart shows a simple MACD & this time it can help identify the major (3) move of an Elliott wave move.
From here - take a look at simple Bollinger Bands.
What you will notice above, is that the Mean of the bands matches the Wyckoff Average price. Obviously oscillating a little as the settings are off the shelf. But you get the point.
If we shift to a Parabolic SAR - you can see within the Wyckoff Range of Distribution, the SAR is narrowing almost making a type of sideways Christmas tree.
Below we have a basic Stochastic - this where I have the yellow line shows newfound weakness in the trend.
Elliott Theory
Move away from indicators and you can see an Elliott wave which is actually a 5 wave move within the 2-3 wave move on a bigger timeframe.
This move can be measured and sometimes forecasted by using simple Fibonacci tools - you will see from this chart below, the move was straight to the 50-618 range; sometimes referred to as the "Golden Zone" .
**Measure taken from the swing X to 1 of the impulsive move.**
What goes up, must come down. This move was then followed by a simple A,B,C formation in accordance with the Elliott Theory.
Jump forward a little and using Fibonacci again.
What you can see here, is that the Fibs from X - 5 (Major move) is now heading down to the 61.8% level.
Other Tools
Heiken Ashi - is another popular tool. Although it's replacing regular candles, bars or lines it basically takes an average and cuts out the noise. (this is not to educate as to how each indicator works) more highlighting how they can be used in simple terms.
What you will notice in the chart above - Is again, the level of respect the Average Price receives within the range. Without the noise.
Custom Indicators
As I mentioned above, there are thousands of indicators that come in all shapes, sizes and colors. As well as price ranges from free to thousands of dollars a month.
Here's an example of how a custom indicator can be built to help traders identify key levels or potential shifts in the market.
This indicator looks for the Mean Reversion as well as highlights a curved regression. As price is always trying to move towards its average you can calculate levels of potential reversals based on a load of tools including zones, pivots, or moving avergae touches for example. Again too many to list.
This next indicator shows two key areas of interest. Imbalance candles and Order Block levels.
There are methods to paint supply and demand zones.
These types of levels can be spotted (with experience) on naked price charts.
Another tool could be used to measure the strength of a currency or stock. For this, we have a simple Strength index calculation.
Showing the shift of power from AUD to USD during the range phase.
Conclusion
Regardless of the tools and indicators, bots n algo's - Price is still king of the market and all else is designed to measure it.
As I said, this post is not to teach anyone how to select or use an indicator - but to highlight how some of these things fit into painting or at least helping to paint a path that price will travel.
I hope this helps - please feel free to comment and question below.
Safe Trading!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Bitcoin Dip Buying - Part 0: Coding the IndicatorThis is a prequel video for a series on how to identify and buy liquidation dips in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Most aspiring traders do not have time to dig into the full process of becoming a successful trader and instead want to skip straight to making millions of dollars so this video is labeled as Part 0; it is optional. This video is for those that want an overview of Tradingview's Pine Script coding so that they may better understand what it takes to build a trading strategy from scratch.
ATR Indicator - How to Avoid Getting Stopped out of TradesIn this post we can see how the stops were taken out beyond. the 26600 price level.
For any setup that a noobie trader may place, the SL would be taken out at this level;
However using the ATR indicator we can avoid getting stopped out and keep our trade.
I recommend you watch some videos on this indicator to get a better understanding but the main jist of it is ->
Take a sweep low/high of a range and add/minus the ATR value (on the sweep candle) to get more legroom for price to move (but it will miss your stop)
I hope you find this useful.
EURAUD 15M UNIDIRECTIONAL TRADING STRATEGYUnidirectional Trade Strategy
STEP 1 - The first step to start trading is to choose the right market to trade and the best time of the day to trade.
You chose a market and you stick with it until you master it.
For the purpose of his unidirectional trade strategy review, we’re going to stick with trading FOREX.
Moving forward, we’re going to lay down some rules to trade only in one direction.
STEP 2 - Only Buy if We Trade Above the Opening Price
We’re not going to predict which way to trade, but instead, we’re going to go along with the intraday momentum strategy.
What we mean by this is simple:
If the market price trades above the opening price of the new trading day, it’s an indication that the buyers are in control, so we want to go along with the flow of the market. The other alternative is to try to guess the market, which is a lot harder.
Note* conversely, if the price is below the opening price we only trade on the short side.
Since we’re trading within the forex market, we want to focus only on the major trading session like the forex London market and the New York sessions.
Step 3 - Buy at the First Green Candle that closes above the Opening price of the New Trading Day.
We need to clarify some rules:
If during the first hours of trading the market has spent most of its time above the opening price our bias for that day is up, and we only look to buy. Conversely, if during the first hours of trading the market has spent most of its time below the opening price our bias for that day is bearish and we only look to sell.
When the next major trading session opens (i.e. The London session) we look for the first bullish candle that closes above the opening price to trigger our entry:
You can actually buy each time you see the price retesting and getting rejected from the opening price.
We’re going to use the same rules and buy at the first bullish candle that closes above the daily opening price.
Now, you may be asking yourself:
“What if the market is already above the opening price?”
“How do we enter?”
Buy after each two consecutive bullish candles. Or, if you have a big bullish candle with its trading range bigger than the surrounding candles, you can go ahead and buy.
Step 4 - You determine your own Take Profit levels or
Take Profit Equals 2 times ATR
We are going to use the average true range (ATR) indicator which measures the price volatility. This will give us a more efficient way to pinpoint the dynamic exit price level.
As our profit target, we’re going to use the 14-period ATR applied to the 15-minute chart and multiply that by 2.
For example, if the ATR is 5 pips our take profit will be 2 x ATR, which is 10 pips.
Here are some of the advantages that come with trading only in one direction:
Trading along with the momentum.
A big profit potential on strong trading days.
Reduces risk and improves the risk-reward ratio.
Final Words – Unidirectional Trading Strategy
In summary, a unidirectional trading strategy is an easy-to-use approach that is a great way for novice traders to get their feet wet. Short-term traders are better off with our unidirectional intraday trading strategy because they can profit without predicting the market.
The bottom line is that if you stay nimble and react to the current market price, you’re better than trying to forecast the market. When you’re tied to your predictions you’re blinded to what’s really going on in the market.
Keep it simple and trade in one direction!
Thank you for reading!
MONEY BOTH WAYS - IS THAT OKAY?Many people have asked me what I'm doing and how I'm doing it. Basically - it's very different.
This is an educational post. I'm an open book - no secrets. This methodology is a bespoke trend following strategy. It loses! You got that? It also wins.
The job of a trader is to use any methodology to limit losses and maximise gains. That only comes with lots of practice. It doesn't matter which system you use. Perfect our skills on paper trading accounts - Tradingview has an excellent free paper trading account. Blow up no fewer than 10 of those. 😃😂 Seriously it's a good idea to do it that way.
But in my own methodology, I've noticed that when following a trend it is a good idea to take profits in a sudden deep RSI if going short (and very high RSI if long). The rebellions nearly always comes.
In this 2H strategy would be nested other trends on say 5 min or 15 min. Those who need to see more can check my scenario on Gold.
I also combine 'theory of curves' in my trend expectations (not predictions). I predict nothing in trend following. How would I know how far the trend is going? I can't know!
See also EURAUD 1H
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
