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EURAUD 15M UNIDIRECTIONAL TRADING STRATEGYUnidirectional Trade Strategy STEP 1 - The first step to start trading is to choose the right market to trade and the best time of the day to trade. You chose a market and you stick with it until you master it. For the purpose of his unidirectional trade strategy review, we’re going to stick with trading FOREX. Moving forward, we’re going to lay down some rules to trade only in one direction. STEP 2 - Only Buy if We Trade Above the Opening Price We’re not going to predict which way to trade, but instead, we’re going to go along with the intraday momentum strategy. What we mean by this is simple: If the market price trades above the opening price of the new trading day, it’s an indication that the buyers are in control, so we want to go along with the flow of the market. The other alternative is to try to guess the market, which is a lot harder. Note* conversely, if the price is below the opening price we only trade on the short side. Since we’re trading within the forex market, we want to focus only on the major trading session like the forex London market and the New York sessions. Step 3 - Buy at the First Green Candle that closes above the Opening price of the New Trading Day. We need to clarify some rules: If during the first hours of trading the market has spent most of its time above the opening price our bias for that day is up, and we only look to buy. Conversely, if during the first hours of trading the market has spent most of its time below the opening price our bias for that day is bearish and we only look to sell. When the next major trading session opens (i.e. The London session) we look for the first bullish candle that closes above the opening price to trigger our entry: You can actually buy each time you see the price retesting and getting rejected from the opening price. We’re going to use the same rules and buy at the first bullish candle that closes above the daily opening price. Now, you may be asking yourself: “What if the market is already above the opening price?” “How do we enter?” Buy after each two consecutive bullish candles. Or, if you have a big bullish candle with its trading range bigger than the surrounding candles, you can go ahead and buy. Step 4 - You determine your own Take Profit levels or Take Profit Equals 2 times ATR We are going to use the average true range (ATR) indicator which measures the price volatility. This will give us a more efficient way to pinpoint the dynamic exit price level. As our profit target, we’re going to use the 14-period ATR applied to the 15-minute chart and multiply that by 2. For example, if the ATR is 5 pips our take profit will be 2 x ATR, which is 10 pips. Here are some of the advantages that come with trading only in one direction: Trading along with the momentum. A big profit potential on strong trading days. Reduces risk and improves the risk-reward ratio. Final Words – Unidirectional Trading Strategy In summary, a unidirectional trading strategy is an easy-to-use approach that is a great way for novice traders to get their feet wet. Short-term traders are better off with our unidirectional intraday trading strategy because they can profit without predicting the market. The bottom line is that if you stay nimble and react to the current market price, you’re better than trying to forecast the market. When you’re tied to your predictions you’re blinded to what’s really going on in the market. Keep it simple and trade in one direction! Thank you for reading!
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
2
MONEY BOTH WAYS - IS THAT OKAY?Many people have asked me what I'm doing and how I'm doing it. Basically - it's very different. This is an educational post. I'm an open book - no secrets. This methodology is a bespoke trend following strategy. It loses! You got that? It also wins. The job of a trader is to use any methodology to limit losses and maximise gains. That only comes with lots of practice. It doesn't matter which system you use. Perfect our skills on paper trading accounts - Tradingview has an excellent free paper trading account. Blow up no fewer than 10 of those. 😃😂 Seriously it's a good idea to do it that way. But in my own methodology, I've noticed that when following a trend it is a good idea to take profits in a sudden deep RSI if going short (and very high RSI if long). The rebellions nearly always comes. In this 2H strategy would be nested other trends on say 5 min or 15 min. Those who need to see more can check my scenario on Gold. I also combine 'theory of curves' in my trend expectations (not predictions). I predict nothing in trend following. How would I know how far the trend is going? I can't know! See also EURAUD 1H Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX:GER30Education
by Captain_Walker
GOLD: Exploiting a trend - secrets shared! Some have asked me about my rather different methodology. This 15 min chart of Gold which isn't my favourite, shows it all. No secrets. No fees. No signups. No signals. No obligations! 😃👍 The position setup shown looks back only to show how it works. There are 5 points at which this trend could have been shorted. If you're a day trader, you might have lost some sleep on this one, but it would have been worth as much as 69 points, or multiply that by whatever you put in for a position sizes. If you had the 'bottle' (not recommending alcohol), you could have added one or two position sizes. (The trend shown could have happened on any time frame - no law says it couldn't. Unlikely on a 4H but who cares). Some knew that gold was likely to head south, but nobody could predict how far, when an important plunge came. Trends predict nothing. You just follow and 'a system' can determine your get-out point. I can't provide skill in this methodology. It sure has it's losses like any other methodology. I can only show how it's composed. The following are important: 1 - one has to spot the trend switch early - so alerts can be set up to spot it. 2 - flattening of price and trend may say something is about to happen (north or south) 3 - price alerts can be set up, so you know to look when something happens (if you're asleep - tough). 4 - an initial RSI plunge or punch does not necessarily mean that price is going to recoil - it could mean start of a big move. 5 - do not fear the RSI - but respect it. 6 - take some or all profits in a very deep or high RSI (depending on direction of trade). 7 - Watch for a 'theory of curves ' - it often gives a warning of the trend ending (approx 55% chance). Skill in any methodology means lots of time and effort sequencing and practicing. Do it on a paper trading account. If you don't do the time you don't get the 'dime'. One day traders will wake up to the value of teamwork. So some can take the watch while others have a nap - the 'watchman' wakes everybody when important stuff happens. 😃🤣 Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
6
SuperTrail Indicator Video / Trailing Stop LossWas just playing around with the replay function in Trading View and thought I'd share this to show how the SuperTrail indicator worked on a couple of different stocks. The SuperTrail is basically a modified SuperTrend but instead uses a percentage to allow you to manually set the trail level for individual stocks. Some need a wider trail, some a smaller one. You might set a trail based on the last months range, or the last 3 months. Totally up to you and the stock itself. The idea is to find what I call the natural range of a stock based on its past behaviour and hope that the stock maintains this range into the future. You can of course simply adjust it from time to time as the stock and the market goes through different behaviours (eg bull or bear), reacting to good or bad company news etc. I use the percentage value that I come up with to set as my stop loss / trailing stop with my broker. This way if the stock drops below the trail value (which automatically moves up as the stock price moves up, but never down if the stock goes down), the stock will automatically sell and I will hopefully bank any profits. Works best of course with trending stocks. You could use the buy signal to go long and the sell signal to short. Main thing for me is I don't have to sit and watch the market and worry how my shares are going. If one is starting to go the wrong way, I automatically get out. Completely up to you how you use it. It is a very simple system :) If you want to see more examples, just have a look at my profile, and if you would like access to the script, just message me and I'll send you the details.
NASDAQ:TSCOEducation
by zAngus
3
EURCAD 1D RANGE TRADESRanges are repeatable trading chart patterns. Ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction. Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern. What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart). Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place. Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement. When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern. Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close. 1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line). a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size. b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+) 2 - Enter two trades. 3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR. 4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR. 5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price. 6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven. 7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price. *8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade *9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open. a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size. b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open. c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade. d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
2
EURUSD 1H RENKO CHARTRenko Trading Strategy #1 This profitable Renko strategy you can use is to focus only on the bricks. No additional technical tool is required for this system. We’re going to explore a very simple and yet very powerful Renko chart pattern that incorporates the wicks. This Renko price pattern looks for two consecutive bricks of the same color and both bricks have wicks. The location of this Renko pattern doesn’t really matter. It can be at the end or middle of a trend. This pattern has a very high rate of success if traded in the right context. You have to look around these two brick patterns and make sure the blocks are not moving back and forth within a trading range. If that’s not the case, then you have a green light to take the signal generated by this trade setup. The entry is on the third brick after the two bricks that have wicks. The stop loss can be placed above the wicks and exit once a reversal pattern is produced. Conclusion – Renko Trading Strategy Renko bars ensure that you have a cleaner and neater representation of price action. If you’re having a hard time reading the price on a candlestick chart, maybe it’s time to look in another direction. Trading with our profitable Renko strategy can be the perfect fit for you. We truly believe that Forex Renko charts are more suitable for traders who still struggle to analyze a candlestick chart. The Renko trading strategies presented through this trading guide are just an introduction into the world of Renko bricks. We hope you now have a clear idea of what the possibilities are by using this new charting technique. When you’re actively trading the markets (scalping, day trading) it’s important to have a methodology to clear out the market noise. The Renko trading strategy is time-independent and gives you an eccentric way to view price action. Even though the free Renko charts can be used across different asset classes, including cryptocurrencies our simple Renko system is designed, but not limited, to be used in the Forex market. What are Renko Charts? A Renko chart is a technical tool or a type of chart that is built by only using price data. Unlike the Japanese candlestick charts, which are built using price, time and volume, the Renko chart only measures price movement. Renko has no time dimension. Renko charts are not some long-hidden secrets dating back to feudal Japan times as some trading gurus would like you to believe. Renko bars were actually developed several decades ago. The name Renko means brick in Japanese and comes from the word “renga.” These charts are sometimes referred to as brick charts by traders. Steve Nison who is the father of modern candlestick charting is the man who actually made Renko charts forex known to the general public. These charts are often compared to traditional candlesticks but have some key differences. While candlestick charts have varying lengths of “wicks” throughout, Renko bricks are all the same size. The simplified bricks found in Renko charts make it easier to read the market and make quick decisions. These charts are ideal for day traders, though they can be used by traders using any timeframe. By removing the noisier parts of the candlestick chart that apply to longer-term trading strategies, Renko charts make it possible to determine where the market is actually moving. Every candlestick on the Renko chart is called a brick because it has the shape of a building brick. The rectangular bricks used for building walls are about the same size. The same goes with Renko charts; every brick is the same size. The size of a Renko brick is pre-determined by the user. How to Read and Build a Renko Trading Chart Reading a Renko chart is simple. Because the bricks have a fixed size, they can all easily be compared to one another. The color (and direction) of the Renko brick will change once the value of the previous brick has been exceeded. This indicates to traders that trends are changing and that the price is likely to swing in the opposite direction. Each brick represents a price range (example – $0.25). However, while the bricks are evenly sized within the same graph, they can be adjusted to your trading objectives. Individuals opening and holding longer, high-cap positions will use different brick sizes than penny stock day traders. We recommend using the average true range—or, ATR for short—in order to construct each brick. The ATR is derived from the closing price of the stock. This means that a Renko chart is a lagging indicator. In the next step, we will show you how to read Renko bars. Note #1: if you use Renko bars with wicks or tails, then some bricks may display additional wicks either at the top or the bottom of a brick. But the brick size remains the same. On the Tradingview charting platform you can go to Chart Settings – Style – Wick, and select which way you want the bricks to be displayed, with or without wicks. Before returning to the Renko bricks with wicks, let’s give you the basics or the foundation of a Renko brick. We already established that the brick size is pre-determined by the user. If you’re trading with Renko charts, and your preferred brick size is 20 pips, then bricks only form when price moved either up or down by 20 pips. The best way to illustrate this concept is to look at Renko blocks through the eyes of the candlestick charts. In the EUR/USD 5-minute candlestick chart below, we highlighted areas of 20 pips worth of price movement. A green Renko brick would form only after the price will advance 20 pips. Conversely, a red Renko brick would form only after the price declines 20 pips. As you can tell, the time intervals between each brick are inconsistent. It’s clear that Renko is less noisy and cuts through a lot of the noise between the swing low and swing highs. Important note: When you trade with Renko charts, the price needs to travel double the price distance of your brick size in order for the Renko brick to change color. For example, if the brick size remains 20, it means that we need to actually move 40 pips for a red brick to be printed after we had a green brick. Let’s return for a second to why some blocks have wicks? Trading Renko charts with wicks can be a very powerful tool in your trading arsenal. Bricks with wicks give us further clues on the battle between the bulls and the bears. A wick is printed on a Renko brick only when there is a strong attempt to produce a reversal (a change of brick’s color from green to red and vice versa), but it fails. The wick will simply show you how many pips it went in the opposite direction. Note #3: a wick is printed on a brick only when the price moves in the opposite direction of the previous candle by at least the length of the brick size +1. Let’s see how you can optimize the Renko block, and how to choose the right Renko brick size. How to choose the right Renko Brick Size? If you don’t know what the right size for Renko charts is then, we have a solution. If we want a dynamic reading of the price through the Renko blocks, we can use a brick size that is determined by the ATR (Average True Range). Instead of picking a random brick size, this will give you dynamic support and resistance levels that are more accurate. The ATR will automatically detect the right brick size that is more in tune with the price action. Note #4: The disadvantage of using an ATR based Renko chart size is that when the ATR value changes, your Renko bricks are redrawn again to reflect the new changes. When selecting your Renko brick size, ask yourself the following questions: What are my objectives as a trader? What are my time constraints? What is the cost of trading? Am I opening small positions or larger positions? Do I consider myself risk-tolerant or risk-averse? If you are pursuing large, lower-risk positions over longer periods of time, then it will make sense to use a larger Renko brick size. On the other hand, if you are pursuing high-risk positions that require paying close attention to volatility, then smaller bricks will be better.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
2
EURCAD 4H SHORT TRADETSG MONEY MANAGEMENT RULES. 1 - Enter 2 trades @ Sell Limit @ 1.4554 - 1% Trade Balance each. 2 - 4H ATR = 25. 3 - SL = 1.5 x ATR (1.5 x 25 = 37.5 = 1.45915) SL for both trades. 4 - TP = 1 x ATR ( 1 x 25 = TP = 1.4529) TP is for 1st order only, 2nd order no TP let profit run. 5 - When 1st TP hit move 2nd order SL to breakeven. 6 - Trail 2nd SL behind previous fractal highs. Price moved up to retest a previous Sup/Res level. Sell Limit made @ 1.4554 for 2 trades. 1st TP hit @ 1.4529, move 2nd trade SL to breakeven @ 1.4554. Price had a bullish pullback and hit 2nd trade SL Price stayed below the previous Sell Limit level of 1.4554. Price re-setup short trade and re-entered another Sell Limit order @ 1.4554. 1st TP hit @ 1.4529, 2nd SL moved to breakeven. Price created a new current fractal low support of 1.4513. Moved Trail SL to current fractal high @ 1.4537. Price created a 2nd current fractal low support at 1.4483. If Price breaks that level then Trail SL to 1.4505 current fractal high. Continue to trail SL if Price continues its bearish move. This current EURCAD 4H Short trade was found by DACapitalTrading Jan 13th. We added to this short trade our TSG money management trade plan.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
USDMXN - HOW TO TRADE WEEKLY SIGNALS WITHOUT BREAKING THE BANKThe weekly trade signals are very powerful to trade but the weekly stop losses are so large it makes you trade very small size positions. It takes a long time for a weekly entry to hit it's first target. This technique takes that built up explosive energy in a huge weekly pattern. But to trade a size that will make it worth while and to get in and out of the trade more quickly. The weekly chart shows the week of Dec. 9th is the candle that triggered the trade. It closed on Dec 13th at an ATR of .3457. This pair moves a hugh amount of pips every day. Weekly ATR = .3457 Weekly candle close entry @ 19.00 Weekly SL is 1.5 x ATR (.3457) = .5186 pip SL or SL @ 19.5156 Weekly 1st TP is 1 x ATR = .3457 pip TP or TP @ 18.65 Use the free trade size calculator at our TSG website under free tools. Demo Acct Size $10,000 Risk Percentage 1% (open two positions of 1% each) & SL of 5186 pips = You can trade 3.62 Micro Lots or 3 micro lot trade size. You still watch weekly chart for breakout setup but use 1st Daily chart for SL & TP. Your alternative option is to use the Daily SL & TP for the daily breakout candle close. Dec. 9th Daily Close breakout candle. Daily ATR = .1361. Daily candle close entry @ 19.24. Daily SL is 1.5 x ATR (.1361) = .2041 pip SL or SL @ 19.44. Daily 1st TP is 1 x ATR = .1361 pip TP or TP @ 19.1039. Free Trade Size Calculator - Demo Acct Size $10,000 Risk 1% with SL of .2041 You can trade 9.59 Micro Lots or 9 Micro lots. Your Daily 1st TP is closer now also at 19.1039 which your are trading with 9 miro lots. 1st TP was hit on 4th day. USDMXN 1W trade was tied up for 5 weeks with 6 micro lots without hitting 1st TP. Use Weekly Chart Pattern Trade set. But use 1st Day Candle Breakout Close for Trade Management data. No reason to use full week numbers on a weekly trade signal. This applies to all markets that you trade. We often see big patterns on indexes and metals where you can use this technique to shorten your trades. This also allows you to use a bigger size. Much better to see your TP hit in a day or two.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
S&P 500 ETF 1D ASCENDING TRIANGLE LONG BREAKOUTAscending Triangle An ascending triangle consists of a strong resistance level. Strong levels are usually pretty obvious. There will be lots of wicks and bodies that touch a horizontal trendline. A trendline is not just a line but it is always a zone. So you can expect the price to push through the level sometimes. Other times price will just approach the level. Draw the line with the intent of finding the price where the activity seems to be most prominent. Draw it so there are no candle bodies above the line so the line can be used as a trigger price. A close above the line will be a trade trigger. Just like all ines this line is very subjective. You won't get it exactly right every single time. You can adjust this line if a head fake happens and price falls back inside the triangle. A far less important line but an important indicator of what is happening in this marketis the ascending portion of the triangle. This shows us that fewer and fewer traders are willing to see the price drop lower. Everytime the price is pushed down it gets pushed back up more quickly. Price gets trapped between these two lines and the pressure to break the resistance level gets stronger and stronger until it finallys breaks. If price pushes below this uptrend line then redraw it as long as the price goes back into the triangle. Watch that the volume continues to decline also. Watch that a triangle will break usually when price reaches 2/3 to ¾ of completion. Price could break sooner. As a confirmation of the consolidation pattern watch for a decline in volume and ATR/volatility. This represents boredom on the part of traders. Fewer traders are willing to participate in the consolidation and are sitting around waiting for it to break. Use the built-in Trading View volume indicator. Click on indicators- select built-ins – scroll down until you see volume – click on it. The volume will appear in the same window pain as the price action. To seperate it from the price action right-click on the indicator- select “move to” to “ new pane below”. This will seperate the volume frpom the price action pain. Select the default volume MA of 20 periods. Use the volume indicator with a moving average because we need to know what the average volume is. Right click indicator – select style – click volume MA. 20 periods is roughly 4 weeks of data for most markets. Volatility is trader speak for how much the price is moving around. For volatility use the average true range (atr) which is the average of the lengths of the last number of candles. Use the default of 14 periods for the Trading View indicator. This is a short er time period for the ATR so to bet a little quicker idea of what the volatilityis doing. 14 periods represent roughly 3 weeks of data for most markets. There are always anomalies, news events and a data release that is messing with these patterns. A brief hiccup in a pattern does not necessarily negate the pattern if the price falls back into the pattern after these events. Trade the ascending triangle only with a bullish breakout of the resistance level. Enter a buy trade on a breakout candle close of the resistance level on your timeframe. Our upper triangle trendline has no candle closes above it os a close above that level is significant. What if it is a false breakout or head fake? Look for volume on the breakout and just go with it. If there is a cnadle close back inside the consolidation triangle then close the trade for a loss and move on the keep the loss small. How to move on depends on what the chart does for the next few bars. If price settles back into the original triangle with the exception of the head-fake and the volume & ATR/volatility continue to decline, then redraw the resistance level to above the candle bodies on the head fake and look for another breakout. Otherwise just call it a blown pattern and look for other opportunities. Everything also applies to a descending triangle. Just look for a strong support level and for the break to the downside.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Tradingstrategyguides
6
ATR PRE-ENTRY STRATEGYATR PRE-ENTRY STRATEGY The Average True Range or ATR is a measure of volatility. Volaltility = the amount the price of a market moves around. The highly volitile GBPAUD moves in hughs jumps. It can move a few hundred pips in a single day. You can win or loss a bunch of money of the GBPAUD. EURCHF is a very low volaltility market. Possibly 50 pips in a single days movement. You can find this out by looking at the ATR. The ATR is simply an average of the length of the last number of candles Most use an average of the last 14 candles which is roughly 3 weeks of the price data of most markets. That will give us an idea if the market is in compression (declining) or expansion (inclining). The ATR automatically adjusts for time frame market or market compression or expansion. So it is useful for everything. Including for determining a valid stop loss or target. Also how active a market happens to be. How to use ATR as an pre-entry technique. I look for a decline in volaltility during a corase of a pattern of consolidation to gauage the compression that is taking place in the market during that consolidation. The market is like a spring. The more you compreise it the more power it generates when the compression is released. The decline of the ATR during the consolidation means a bigger explosion in the breakout from the consolidation.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
EURUSD 1H INSIDE CANDLE METHOD BREAKOUTINSIDE CANDLE STRATEGY What is an Inside Candle 1. Previous candle engulfs next candle. 2. 2nd candle high is lower that 1st candle. 3. 2nd candle low is higher than 1st candle. INSIDE CANDLE METHOD 1. Incoming Trend 2. Inside Candle – Opposite Color 3. Enter Break of Engulfing Larger Candle Inside Candle method is a great short term consolidation indicator. If your trade plan contains breakouts and consolidation then this method is for you. This is a great way to find smaller consolidations quicker which will give you more trades on whatever time frame you want to look. On a daily chart it may take weeks for a consolidation pattern to form. Inside candle represents a pause, consolidation or compression in the market after a big move. Often you will also see reduced volume on the inside candle. Inside Candle method is a pause or a reversal of the trend . So it is more effective if there is an incoming trend. Enter a break of the larger engulfing candle in the direction of the break. Enter with a Stop Order a few pips above or below breakout level. Which trades you take is a matter of preference. Some like reversal trades or trend following trades. Scalping in doesn't matter what direction you may go. Trend following you will want to see this in context of a larger trend. Take all the trade setups and just shut down the ones that don't preform. Trade Management: Enter 2 trades Stop Loss is 1.5 x ATR for both trades First Take Profit is 1 x ATR for 1st trade 2nd trade there is no take profit. When 1st TP is hit move 2nd trades SL to breakeven. Let profit run on 2nd trade by following/trailing SL. If a candle closes back inside the larger engulfing candle close down trade. Watch for a setup for the next breakout.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
HOW TO AVOID A BREAKOUT HEAD-FAKEAVOIDING FALSE BREAKOUTS 1. Declining Volume and ATR/Volatility. 2. Candle Close Outside the Consolidation 3. Significant Volume on the Breakout. 4. If You Get Head-Faked, Close the Trade. How to Avoid False Breakouts Prevent a Head Fake You can't avoid every false breakout. There is no magic formula. There is no way to know what the market is about to do. What we do as traders is take advantage of little patterns and clues that the market is going to possibly do a certain thing. This is all based on probabilities. These patterns and clues never worked out 100% of the time. That is why we manage our risk on every single trade because there are no sure things. There are things you can do to increase the probability that you are not going to get tricked by a false breakout. Lets take a look at them. AVOIDING FALSE BREAKOUTS 1. Declining Volume and ATR/Volatility. Watch for declining volume & atr/volatility on the consolidation before the breakout. This shows that there are fewer traders willing to risk money that price is staying in the consolidation. 2. Candle Close Outside the Consolidation. Candle closes, especially daily & weekly, are very important events. Day traders like to square their positions at the end of the day. A bearish day trader who is done for the day will close his open shorts which is a buy causing the price to pop up. If price has pushed below the consolidation during the coarse of the day, price will often retreat back into consolidation after day traders square their positions. A daily close below the consolidation means longer term traders are selling. Reverse is true for bullish breakouts. 3. Significant Volume on the Breakout. You want to see significant volume on breakout candle close outside of consolidation. If the volume is declining during the coarse of the consolidation and a volume spike on the candle close outside of the consolidation supports the fact that more traders are interested in the move. Look for the spike to be 100% of the average volume to enter a full sized position. You can enter a ½ sized position if there is at least 75% of the average volume. Use a 20 period simple moving average on the volume so it represents about a month of volume data on most markets. 4. If You Get Head-Faked, Close the Trade. You will eventually get caught in one. If you get a candle close back inside the consolidation, close the trade. You may have another opportunity to get back into the trade from a real breakout. Don't immediately give up on it. Especially if you see the volume and atr/volatility continue to decline. Taking a small loss early on will help you make it up on the real breakout.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
ATR MONEY MANAGEMENT FOR GBPAUD & EURUSD 4H & 1DUsing a set amount for SL and TP for different pairs and time frames is not effective money management. Using the ATR for a specific pair and time frame lets you custom yur SL & TP for what that pair actually moves. ATR 1D takes the last 14 candles and adds up then up together and then divides that figure by 14. Now you have an average of how much that pair moves in a day. GBPAUD 1D ATR moves 133 pips GBPAUD 4H ATR moves 47 pips EURUSD 1D ATR moves 42 pips EURUSD 4H ATR moves 15,6 pips This helps me determine a more accurate setting for my SL and TP for the pair I am trading and the time frame I am using.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
EURUSD 1D AWESOME OSCILLATOR (AO) STRATEGYLong Trade AO below Zero Line AO creates a Low AO then creates a Higher Low ENTER after AO bar closes Green Short Trade AO above Zero Line AO creates High AO then creates a Lower High ENTER after AO bar closes Red Stop Loss is 1.5 x ATR Take Profit is 1 x ATR 1 - Trade Management 2 - Enter two trades. 3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR. 4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR. 5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price. 6 - When 1st trade TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven. 7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
Using ATR To Find Daytrading OpportunitiesWhen The Trend Is Not Your Friend There's something to be said for the idea that ATR is more important than trend direction for intraday trading. This chart shows how this can happen. Overall the trend is up. It has pullbacks here and there but whether the larger trend is pointed up or down the big range days are at lower prices and when price pushes up to expand the overall range higher the daily ATR drops. This means that just because the trend is headed upward you might want to avoid daytrading at all. Even trading long can be dangerous when the range is so compressed. There are lots of big green large range days down in the pullback areas. The ES has not been triggering on my scripts hardly at all and I was wondering why since you'd think with all time high prices it would be a field day. This shows why and I'm going to be adjusting things to find where the high expected ATR days are likely to be rather than finding where it has broken from the value area.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mljones
How much of their money can europeans lose in a single day?Disclaimer: For new people, or just the dumb people (I heard there were alot of those in crypto), these are AVERAGE TRUE RANGE numbers. Those numbers do not represent the most or even average you can lose in a day but the trading range in an average day. Days can vary widely... Just look at the NatGas chart, or Bitcoin that has some days in a 2.5% range and then days where the price goes up or down (organically) 20% in 3 hours. The most: Natural Gaz ==> 4% ATR * 10 leverage = 40% a day. NatGas that regularly soars massively and wipes out funds, gaps insanely very regularly, is the one with the most risk allowed. Regulators <3 The least (outside of absolute troll FX minors and probably some mysterious stocks): 10 Year T-Note ==> 0.50% ATR * 5 leverage (30 with FCA) = 2,5% a day. What about FX majors? EURUSD ==> 0.75% ATR * 30 leverage = 22,5% a day. USDJPY ==> 0.75% ATR * 30 leverage = 22,5% a day. GBPUSD ==> 0.85% ATR * 30 leverage = 25,5% a day. EURCHF ==> 0.50% ATR * 30 leverage = 15,0% a day. (probably smallest) GBPJPY ==> 1.00% ATR * 30 leverage = 30,0% a day. (probably largest) What about FX "minors"? AUDUSD ==> 1.00% ATR * 20 leverage = 20% a day. USDZAR ==> 1.50% ATR * 20 leverage = 30% a day. The biggest one I think. USDHKD ==> 0.05% ATR * 20 leverage = 01% a day. ... USDCNH ==> 0.40% ATR * 20 leverage = 08% a day. Smallest one that is not a complete joke. My interest for this collpased with the new restrictions... What about agri? Biggest "major" one is Coffee ==> 3.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 30% a day. Smallest "major" one is Soybean ==> 1.60% ATR * 10 leverage = 16% a day. What about stocks? I cannot check 50,000 tickers, but the typical big ones have ATR around 2%, with the vast majority of > 1B cap between 1 and 3 % a day, so with 5 leverage ==> Typical is 10%, and range is 5-15%. What about my big 3 commodities (Gold Oil Copper)? Gold ==> 1.25% ATR * 20 leverage = 25% a day. Oil ==> 3.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 30% a day. HGC ==> 2.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 20% a day. What about crypto? Bitcoin ==> 5.50% ATR * 2 leverage = 11% a day. With BTC the biggest less risky one you have access to the less risk. Pure regulator logic here. ETHUSD ==> 11.5% ATR * 2 leverage = 23% a day. XRPUSD ==> 13.0% ATR * 2 leverage = 26%. EOSUSD ==> 10.5% ATR * 2 leverage = 21%. Excrement On Shareholders moves less than this bigger ones, does this mean it is more stable and secure? TRXUSD ==> 20.0% ATR * 2 leverage = 40%. I haven't access to this but I checked etoro which I know is a broker very geared towards morons, and surprise suprise TRX is here... So you have the poopiest of cryptos (well in the top 25) fighting for first place with NatGas with leverage adjusted ATR of 40% a day...
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by MrRenev
Pro tips: Trick to see when markets are most activeHello, if like me, you like to sleep at night and trade during the day, this trick might inetrest you. We could put alerts on silent but I would rather not. And why focus on a chart that is only active while you sleep? Waste of time... Unsurprisingly, the Australian pairs get some activity during europe and NA day, but also alot and I mean ALOT in the MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. I am soooo tired of getting woken up by some AUD alerts, sometimes JPY. SO DONE WITH THIS. TILTED. Better give up on all the AUD pairs, they are not worth it. NZD too. Also, for short term trading AUD and NZD were the major currencies with the biggest spreads. The JPY pairs seem to be active in the morning alot ... I don't know if I want to give up on these. At least I will ignore GBPJPY that is going to be always active when London opens. EURUSD, perfect one, it is most active when? You can guess it, it is most active when New York and London sessions overlap, and dead during the night, just look at the chart. There is a crater at 4 am every day. PERFECT. It feels good to clean up your watchlist :) Good riddance! * Do not try this with cryptocurrencies. Won't work.
Education
by MrRenev
Turtle Trading Strategy - Educational Overview & Results (v2)I have undertaken backtesting over the past few weeks on a number of Crypto / USD pairs using the famous Turtle Trading strategy. There are a number of good books written on this strategy and you can find the details rules online. On all of the pairs I tested the Turtle Strategy (version 1) performed best. The Turtle Trading strategy is a systematic trend-following breakout trading system which works well in trending markets - its designed to catch the big trends! The strategy looses money over time when the market is ranging. Historically crypto markets have primarily been trending which makes the Turtle strategy a good fit over time. In this trade I will follow these Turtle strategy principles: (main rules also shown in the chart) Entry: Long (or Short) is placed when the price breaks above (or below for Shorts) the price for the previous 20 days. Position Size: 1% of portfolio size adjusted to account for volatility of the market, known as 1N. More volatile markets have a wider Stop Loss (see below) but they also have smaller position size. This equalises risk across all entries and results in better diversification and more robust risk management. As the portfolio size increases or decreases so therefore will the subsequent position sizing. Additional Positions: Purchased if price moves in the direction of the trade at 1/2N or 1/2% of portfolio size/risk. A maximum of 3 additional units, making for a total of 4 units will be purchased. Stop Loss: Placed based on a calculation involving the Average True Range (ATR) for the previous 20 days where the Risk amounts to no more than 2% Portfolio size. i.e. Stop is placed at 2N. If additional units are purchased then each one has its own Stop Loss and each will be executed individually if and when they are reached. Target/Exit: No fixed target is set. Turtles do not agree with the old saying "You can never go broke taking a profit", instead they believe that taking a profit too early is one of the most common and damaging mistakes in trading trend-following systems. Instead an exit will be triggered when the trend has a 10-day low (or 10-day high for Shorts). Thus the Exit is not shown on this trade set-up. If additional positions have been purchased then ALL will be exited when the exit target is hit for the original position. Maximum Positions: The Turtle strategy advocates a limit on the number of positions held across all traded pairs for uncorrelated and correlated markets. Since all crypto pairs are closely correlated (see: cointrading.ninja) I will be ignoring this rule and instead following the rule which states that a maximum of 12 long positions and 12 short positions can be held at the same time. It is noted that it is unlikely that 24 positions will be opened as the close correlation of crypto markets means that positions will either be long or short but not both at the same time. History of trades for this Turtle S1 strategy (each trade is posted separately): 1) IOT/USD Long (11-Jun-18), 2% Loss 2) XRP/USD Short (03-July-18), 0.45% Loss 3) ETH/USD Short (03-July-18) 1.15% Loss 4) IOT/USD Short (11-Jun-18) 1.38% Gain 5) BTC/USD Short (03-Jul-18) 0.65% Gain 6) BTC/USD Long (03-Aug-18) 0.61% Loss 7) ETH/USD Long (31-July-18) 2% Loss 8) XRP/USD Long (17-July-18) 2.11% Loss 9) ETH/USD Short (01-Aug-18) 10.36% Gain 10) IOT/USD Short (03-Aug-18) 9.28% Gain 11) XRP/USD Short (06-Aug-18) 12.45% 12) BTC/USD Short (08-Aug-18) 0.36% Gain 13) EURUSD Short (10-Aug-18) 4.55% Loss 14) IOT/USD Long (28-Aug-18) 3.27% Loss 15) BTC/USD Long (28-Aug-18) -2.58 Loss 16) ETH/USD Short (05-Sep-18) ACTIVE 17) BTC/USD Short (09-Sep-18) ACTIVE 18) IOT/USD Short (18-Sep-18) ACTIVE Overall 16.05% Gain of closed trades I publish each individual trade I execute on TradingView - search for my trades using "turtle" tag. I will be keeping a log of trading results in this idea for full transparency. This is not investment advice. Please always do your own research. If you are interested in this trade or the Turtle strategy in general then please follow me and my turtle trades. "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity" If you want to know more about Turtle trading then follow me and my trades. If I get enough people interested I can update TradingView more frequently with my levels so people can copy trade. Peace.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by HackneyCrypto
3
What is the job of a trend-following trader?The chart is not going to tell anyone whether to go long or short. I cut deeper than that. This post is about what I see as the job of a trader, who wants to be consistently profitable over a long time using trend following strategies. The following therefore excludes systems that tend to have fixed targets, such as harmonic trading and exploiting levels of support and resistance. Trend-followers usually do not have fixed targets as they do not know how far a trend would go before changing. My job as a trend-following trader is to do the following: Estimate probability of direction of future price movement based on a sound system of analysis. Engage losses but make them controlled and reasonable within a sound methodology. Exploit probability of price movement in a favoured direction by trailing the trend. Have realistic expectations of gain in any single trade relative to the Average True Range (or other suitably reliable measure of volatility). For trading situations where the Average True Range is high, stop-losses need to be acceptable and broad. Sometimes 2 x Average True Range is used as a rule of thumb. However, human judgement has to prevail. On occasions some instruments have a pattern of spiking deeply down or up, and recovering. For those a stop-loss of 3 x Average True Range may be better to avoid being stopped out. If 3 x Average True Range or even 2 x Average True Range is unacceptable as a loss I do not enter the trade. Too often new traders are spiked out and left behind. Average True Range varies by time frame and naturally so does visual appreciation of volatility. Make volatility your friend - and treat her with respect. Develop ' nerves of steel '.
Education
by Captain_Walker