Boxes trading strategy example. $ABNB stock.Continuing my tutorials on boxes trading strategy.
This time let's analyze NASDAQ:ABNB stock price movement.
Taking all appropriate steps as described in my first lesson:
1. Identifying long-term trend channel.
2. Finding supply and demand zones.
3. Drawing a box inside which price is moving sideways.
4. Buying demand zone bounces.
5. Watching for breakouts.
There are some curious details in this stock's price movements.
We can see there was an attempt for a breakout from the box on the session opening of July 1st. However, there was not enough volume for the move higher, so the breakout failed.
As expected, the stock reversed to go lower in the followind days.
Even though this stock is in a falling trend channel, it's very news sensitive stock.
For instance, if there are positive news regarding COVID mitigation, we could see a major breakout from the falling trend.
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Airbnb has been on my radar for a long time now. Personally, I think it's a great long-term investment and I've been buying the stock on it's way down. I believe it will be a great post-COVID play.
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Disclaimer!!!
This is not financial advise.
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Leave it, Grab A Cup Of Coffee And Relax ☕So, we are reaching the end of the year folk.. 2020 will be gone.. HAPPY NEW YEAR..
What a year it was.. Lot's of ups and downs, We saw both 3000 and 24000 price channel in just one year.. We've experienced Covid-19 and the quarantine.. What a journey!!! We've learned a lot together from this year..
I tried my best to give you my experience on trading, analysis, technical/fundamental parameters and newest oscillators.. I hope you found them useful for yourself and you're satisfied..
I wanted to add one more important tip about market near new year.. All the capital markets, including crypto market, are so risky near and in this big holidays.. Most of big companies closes their 2020 financial reports top traders stop trading for a break or going to holiday and etc.. These reasons make all the markets so volatile and risky.
I strongly recommend you to stop trading until mid-January.. Just relax, try to enjoy holidays.. Try to have some time with your family and your loved ones.. These holidays are extraordinary time for you to update your knowledge on the market.. Try to learn something new so you can have a progress for new year of trading.. Try not to be temped to make profit during the holiday, because you're going to regret it with a big loss.. And by the way, You came a long way studying the market this year, you deserve a rest.. We all do deserve it..
For my final words in this post, I want to thank you for accompanying me during this journey that was a great honor for me, I hope you enjoyed it too..
I have a little request.. I really love to read your comments about my idea that I gave you this year, I want to know what do you think about them? How useful were them to you? And the most important thing is that what do you suggest me to write about in upcoming year for you??
If you have friends that you think My profile and ideas can help the give the my address so we all can learn and gain from the market and make our educational community larger and stronger..
I'm waiting to read your comments below my friends, Wish you a great 2021 and HAPPY NEW YEAR...
Hope but also fear & despairHOPE
I have to start with a little lesson or reminder:
- Parasites: Organisms that live temporarily or permanently in a host, feeding off its host rent free, in its best interest to keep the host healthy or at least alive.
- Bacteria: Entire domain (Bacteria, Archaea, Eukarya - Animals & Plants are Eukarya) that just doesn't care, some of them eat their "host" alive or dead.
- Virus: Undead creatures (technically...) that inject dna in their host to make more of them. They cannot spread on their own. Need living host.
- Prion: Misfolded protein which transmits its shape to other ones in a chain reaction and causes terrifying psychiatric symptoms, death. No diagnosis, no cure.
Let's focus on viruses. Their objective is to multiply. They're quite basic.
Take 2 viruses, which one do you think will spread the most?
A- Host instantly collapses to the ground, bleeds through his eyes, and dies in 3 days.
B- Host is full of energy, never gets any symptoms, speaks to people, laughs, goes into nightclubs weekly.
The second epidemic of SARS-cov-2 which was also called covid-19 had more cases but less deaths.
The UK has a third mutation (third is incorrect as there have been at least thousands of mutations) and this one is far more contagious than the last ones...
If it is more contagious it would not be crazy to expect it to be less severe... FFS it's a virus that's not even alive, not an alien invasion trying to wipe us out.
Most viruses have very low mortality rates. All the very lethal ones come from? From other species! In particular flying critters, and in more particular bats.
HIV is said to come from some monkey, could be flying primates who knows?
These viruses have adapted to their hosts, and when they transmit to humans they come in another form.
Common sense says "don't eat anything that looks like you". Eating humans enough times will result in a guaranteed light speed devastating exponential spread of 100% death rate prion disease. Eating monkeys often ends up badly. I would also avoid bats.
Why do bats develop so many "super viruses"?
This is the answer: Bats fly, and when they do their body heats up (I think it goes up to 40°C which is what a human gets when they have hardcore fever - fever is a body method to get rid of disease by killing it with heat). Since their body heats up it damages their dna so they have a super saiyan immune system.
A virus is fragile. Only the "strongest" ones, in this case severe, will survive, and they'll be just severe enough to live in bats without killing them.
The "weak ones" just go away.
So when this bat virus jumps to humans it's super deadly compared to where it should be at, because humans don't heat up all day long like bats and humans do not have a radioactive immune system. The virus is overtuned for humans.
Then what happens is now the "strong" virus individuals - the most severe ones - are now the "weak" ones, host dies, host does not spread, and the virus dies with it.
The "weak" ones are now the "strong" ones that will spread their genes. The virus evolves until it finds the perfect balance, which is never ending as the environment in general always changes but not as fast as changing species.
Oh by the way, this blows out the "survival of the fittest" theory. The organism that survives is the one most adapted to its environment, and the result can be as we see here a total 180°.
We can expect things to calm down, and no need to get all paranoid and have panic attacks. Anything can happen, but things settling down is very likely.
FEAR & DESPAIR
Haha just kidding we're all going to die. In the past years the world has become completely open. Globalism always existed but not as much as today.
SARS happened about 20 years ago, who knows how bad it would have been if there were no borders like today?
Look at Europe and the rest of the world, they blocked all travel from the UK.
Even Bill Gates was able to predict something like covid-19 (I think we got very lucky here, could have been really terrible), it was obvious it would happen, only a matter of time.
There are extreme diseases all the time, but most of the time they remain local and die off (not during the black death era).
If half the planet is constantly jumping around countries you can be certain some local deadly diseases will jump with them.
Having noble virtuous openness philosophical ideals is cute and all but keep in mind opening up comes with everything: ideas, people, problems, disease.
It's like always putting all your eggs in the same basket, you are very optimistic.
The science cult believes science will save us all. All I've seen until is mass panic and a rushed untested vaccine with coinflip long term effects against a virus that mutated dramatically, no idea if it will work against this new virus.
The vaccine also came long after the epidemic was over and it killed more than 1 million people.
Now imagine a kind hearted virtuous noble open world with a continent wide schengen area in every continent, and ease of movement, migrants can go anywhere they want, illegals are welcome with open arms and actually are not illegals because it's legal to do whatever you want.
Now. Tell me.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN DURING THE NEXT EBOLA/MARBURG VIRUS OUTBREAK?
It's only a matter of time. Maybe the next one won't spread. But EVENTUALLY I can guarantee with absolute certainty there is one that will spread.
And it will be lots of fun. Towns will fall first. Armed civilians and/or tanks will obliterate anyone trying to leave the cities. But this won't stop the spread.
Half the planet will die. Every one will become ultra-racist and murder anyone that looks different. Governments will collapse.
There will be no more order. People will isolate, kill each other for food. Wow such inclusiveness.
Or the next plague could be hantavirus (rats), or something else (with climate change there has been an explosion of wildlife - boars, foxes, deers, goats...)
Or maybe it will be much much worse than even Ebola. We'll all get our food from the same place, and our food will develop some prion disease.
People that eat this food will catch a disease we can not diagnose. The proteins will end up spreading exponentially to fields hence all types of food, they will end up in the water, they will end up everywhere with no sign of illness. And then people will start dying by the millions. Those alive will know deep down they have it. And remember prion causes horrifying psychiatric symptoms yay!
Governments will straight up nuke all large cities in a desperate attempt to save humankind. It sounds crazy but it's very real.
People will get paranoid and shoot anything that moves in a 25 meter circle around them.
But it will be too late anyway. No one will survive. Everyone will die a horrible slow excruciatingly painful death. The end.
If you risk 100% of your money on each trade, no matter how high your winrate YOU WILL BLOW UP this is a promise I make to you.
Same concept with getting all food from the same source, or 1 single worldwide globalist borderless nation.
THIS MEANS TROUBLE!You don't need to be a scientist or epidemiologist to see what's going on here. The COVID pandemic is out of control.
These charts are limited because they show total infections - not rate of infections per day.
The exponential appearance of total infections is because of the summation of infections.
However, if a country is gaining some control over the virus then we could expect some flattening of the curve like with Australia. A flattening would mean they're not piling on loads of new infections.
Many parts of Europe, America and UK are in big trouble - but we're not hearing much about the economic impact of any of that. Why? Because everybody is focused on fiscal stimulus and hopes that a vaccine will cure economies.
Stock markets all over the world are looking past what rising infections mean for the future. Many countries are actually locking down but their stock markets are rocketing!
Driven by hope and greed, those who look past reality are courting delusion. The gap between fantasy and reality closes suddenly at times. I don't know when this is going to happen. I don't have a crystal ball.
DJI: Trump's Covid-19 Case - A Historical ComparisonIn this analysis I'll be shedding light on my own theory on:
- How President Trump's Covid-19 Positive news may impact the market
- Similarities and differences in historic cases
- Why Trump possibly announced his testing positive so quickly
Trump's Testing Positive
- Trump testing positive for Covid-19, 4 weeks before the presidential elections, is not good news
- Especially considering that the current market is momentum driven, such bad news is good enough to scare new investors from pouring money into the market
We can see a similar case where the president's medical condition negatively impacted the market
Historic case
- President Eisenhower suffered a heart attack in September 25, 1955.
- Before this incident, the stock market was at an unprecedented bullish rally
- Immediately after news was released that he was hospitalized, the market fell by 6%, leading to $14 billion instantly vanishing
- Eisenhower recovered, and it was later announced that his condition was not serious
- Eventually, the market bounced, and continued to rally upwards
- President Trump also announced his testing positive for Covid-19 a few hours ago
- Just as Eisenhower's case, the stock market is in an uptrend, with significant bullish momentum
- The market is correcting, due to bad news, but not as significantly as that of the past
- Just as Eisenhower, considering the fact that Trump will be taken care of seriously, it's most likely that he will recover from the virus
- As such, it's reasonable to expect that the market will continue to rally upwards
- However, it's also important to consider that market situations are not the same as the past
- For more in-depth explanation on what makes today's market special, check out my previous analysis below:
Why did Trump announce his condition?
- This is an important question to ask, as Trump announced his testing positive for Covid via twitter
- Trump is arguably the most powerful person in the world. He could have concealed his condition if he really wanted to, and later justify it as "classified information"
- What could have been Trump's intentions behind this?
- In the case of the Prime Minister of the UK, Boris Johnson, his support rate was at 48% prior to him testing positive
- After he got the virus, there was a sentiment of sympathy among the general public, leading to his support rate skyrocketing to 72%, an all time high support rate ever since Tony Blair
- Given this case, and the fact that the presidential elections will be held in 4 weeks, Trump could have been targeting this sympathetic sentiment among the general public
- It's also highly likely that Trump recovers quickly, with the best medical staff from the country treating him
- As such, he will be qualified to talk about the issue (as someone who has caught the virus), and suggest that he's the only one capable of solving the problem.
Conclusion
As past cases demonstrate, problems regarding the President's medical condition is never good for the market. However, given that the president recovers quickly, this could end up being a 'buy the dip' opportunity.
If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content!
I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
GOLD TRADING PATTERN 2006 TO 2020 ANALYSIS - LEARN SETUP As we discussed earlier, The pandemic vaccine is expected to reach in 2021 so it will achieve it before the vaccine, second corona vawe is affecting world economic hopes again, China-US trade and political tensions are escalating with US elections. Us pandemic situation is not under control.
WINNERS in battle against COVID-19In this sample of countries, China and New Zealand appear the most successful in fighting infection rates of COVID-19.
India and Brazil are still going exponentially north.
Do you believe lamestream media, or do you believe the data? The choice is yours.
China seems to be closest to developing a plateau, followed by NZ. I see the start of a second wave in the USA from around 14th June. Spot the slight increase acceleration in the curve for USA in green.
COVID-19 France confirmed/recovered/deathsI would like to know someone who studied normalized Gaussian curves with expected value u and variance o2.
In theory, the more we will test people, the more the curve will spike rapidly, to go down rapidly, but it's just mathematics, not epidemiology.
According to epidemiologists, there won't be second wave before September 2020.
Here is the official numbers according to the Regional Health Agency : dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr
160 750 confirmed cases
Reduction in confirmed cases due to a change in calculation method.
Since June 2, patients who test positive are only counted once.
29 663
deaths
9 693
hospitalizations
74 612
returns to home
701
in reanimation
19 206
deaths at hospital
37 901
confirmed cases in retirement house and medical social establishment
10 457
deaths in retirement house and medical social establishment
Airlines, bottlenecks and COVID-19!Have a close look at this very busy chart. There is a crisis in airline industry after COVID-19 struck. Some do not realise how serious this thing is. Expand and drag the chart a bit if everything does not fit nicely.
The airlines are connected up to many things. I could not include everything. But for basic GDP when the airlines are hit GDP and trade are hit. Of course a big part of air travel is the holiday and entertainment industries.
What his chart means really, is that a sizeable proportion of people won't be 'in the air' if they can't get a hotel or other accommodation. All that is very much linked up to ground transportation, and places of work (or entertainment).
Your leaders can 'open up the economy'. However, it'll be like wheels spinning on ice - no traction. I have to let my followers know that 'I don't rule the world'. You all need to talk to a chap who has golden hair. LOL!
I'm not flying anywhere for the next 18 months, even if I get an all expenses paid trip handed to me! Others can take their chances. The point is that lots of people may be thinking their life is more important than a holiday. Of course, if you saw protests in the UK and the USA, you would know that not everybody thinks like me.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
LOG Long Term Trendline SupportWe can see the long term support forming a channel with the overhead support from 20k ATH. We can see how a BIG MOVE IS SETTING UP...ON or before AUGUST 27th 2020.
Brian Brooks is having fun making the new crypto dollar everyone is expecting.
Your dollars are just digits on a screen...unless a blockchain application creates a new transparent world.
Imagine knowing exactly how many dollars there are!
Don't worry... Privacy coins still exist... but YOUR AMERICAN EXPRESS CARD tracks you anyways evertime you swipe...lol
Just wait until AMERICAN EXPRESS releases the BITCOIN REWARDS CARD!
welcome to the roaring 20s...
just need to destroy the swamp first...
enjoy.
Second wave or no wave - the choice is yours! Just have a look. I present a case for probability south on the DJI (Wall Street).
Reality is catching up.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
For science! So here we are... Typical exponential lifecycle.Another mass hysteria to look at.
On this chart I took the sum of coronavirus new cases in GB + France + Italy + Germany + Spain + Portugal + The Netherlands.
A reminder, I posted the idea "Virus spread/Bacteria poluation/Ponzi scheme lifecycle" March 20th, as we were near the top of the Log Growth phase and everyone was panicking.
As you can see the stationary phase lasted from the 27 March to 16 April.
In my idea I posted a stationary phase going from the 30 March to the 17 April.
This time was not different, and the entire situation was painfully simple to predict.
"More than 50 million will die" I laughed hysterically at this idiotic nonsense 2 months ago, and today, I still laugh.
I got violently and heinously criticized, and I was right. Again.
I refuse to give attention to these people. I refuse to debate with people which expertise level is so far below my own.
I also got called a perma bear alot. "The EU will never break apart" We'll see about that. "Europe will always be free", that one aged well.
If we learned something it is that when the mindless herd becomes afraid, OUR liberties, for all of us, not just the dumb scared people, can fade away more rapidly than we can run away to another country.
Whatever the consequences of this event are, this period will enter history as just another mass hysteria, a new entry to the list of "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds".
We have also witnessed absolute cretins fight for toilet paper, disgusting parasites try to profit from the situation by hoarding goods.
And of course we have seen how "for the people" far left politicians instantly turned to complete NAZIS. Wow! Didn't see that coming right?
"We're the good guys". I kept repeating how evil and dangerous they were, and how they'd go really bad at the first chance! Proven right once again!
While we're at it, still the same view of BTC
We can look at other places curve. Turkey is situated at 35-40°N and have similar flu seasons to west europe.
The average flu or common cold seasons per country exists, but good luck finding it on the internet (I stumbled on it a few weeks ago).
Depends when their flu season is, depends when they got hit...
India is going to get rekt.
I know there is data for rhinovirus, coronavirus, influenza virus seasonality, it's just impossible to find because no one is interested.
India has one of the most expensive stock markets and is full of ponzis and gamblers.
Lmao I find it hilarous that India is crashing its own economy with a lockdown when they have rabbies (aka the zombie apocalypse) and corpses lying around or floating in rivers with no animals to clean up, and dump chemicals and feces in the Ganje, and have huge flu numbers every year and no one cares, people there don't even vaccinate they can't be bothered 😆
But let's shut down the country because "your papaya has covid quick declare national emergency" communist scheming WHO said to.
There is so much bad hygiene in India man, they have all kinds of parasites and viruses, the situation is so bad I think soon they'll have aliens.
This is too much. How will history look at this period? This must be by far one of the dumbest periods in history.
And go figure, it's the one where people think they're so smart and so advance and "muh science".
COVID: POP! BANG!This is the latest picture for COVID-19 deaths in USA v UK. The virus has pricked the DJI'S bubble!
I don't see any plateaus or defined peaks. A peak is defined relative to a trough. No trough, or retracement means no defined peak. There is a whole lotta spin out there in lamestream media telling us that COVID has peaked. I can't see it.
The virus's pinprick caused a POP. From April 2020, it took off with a BANG! The FED believes it can fight a virus with free or easy cash. They don't seem to be winning (at this time only).
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
If Bitcoin Really is The New GoldLet's say the equities market crashes along with commodities, then we would expect gold's price to increase, but maybe Bitcoin will become the new gold due to the nature of the pandemic that we are currently amidst. The key point is this: gold is neither easily transportable, transferrable, nor is it readily portable. It would be impractical to expect be able to readily access gold throughout the entire time it takes for our planet to either acquire herd immunity to SARS-CoV-19 or to produce a vaccine which would be used to prevent said virus. Bitcoin is advantageous in this aspect. A $120,000 per coin call sounds hopeful at one point or another, but such lofty thoughts like that don't seem too far out of reach, especially during times like these.