Overextended MarketsKnow when price is overextended
and allow it to correct/consolidate
before taking setups with the trend
Correction
Weekly Trading Recaps: AUDJPY, XLMUSD, SUGAR, BTCUSD Jan 24 2021Hello everyone
Welcome back to another quick weekly trade recap video on the positions.
I am currently in the mountains (lol) so may not get to my usual weekly outlook stream due to internet. But hopefully still update analysis :)
AUDJPY - Second position got out for BE. Currently in the third position in.
XLMUSD - Took out for a 1% loss.
BTCUSD - Still Holding, currently @ 3% profit.
SUGAR - Still holding, currently @ 2.5% profit.
Any questions, comments, or feedback welcome to let me know below.
Thank you
How I trade Head and Shoulder Price Action Pattern/StructureHello everyone:
In this quick educational video, I will go over how I utilize Head and Shoulder Pattern/structure in the market.
Specifically, how I identify reversal price action from a Head and Shoulder Pattern.
It's important to understand that Head and Shoulder Is a reversal structure in the market.
When we identify these patterns, they are usually at the top or the bottom of the over price action,
and its signaling a bullish or a bearish trend may be exhausted, and a reversal trend may begin.
Typical H and S will have a bullish move up, followed by a continuation correction (Left Shoulder), and move up again.
At the peak (Head) , instead of a continuation to push up further, we then see a reversal bearish push down.
Then, we see price form that bearish continuation correction (Right Shoulder) now, looking to push the price back lower.
Just like any other price action structures/patterns that I have been talking about, these structures/patterns will appear in any time frames, any market.
So it's important to understand multi-time frame analysis and top down approach.
A 5 min H and S pattern may not be that strong reversal to give you 100 plus pips because the HTF is showing us different bias.
From my experiences, a H and S pattern works best when we spot on the LTF price action. When we have a clear bias on the HTF for a potential bearish reversal, we go down to the LTF to look for confirmation and entry.
Remember a H and S pattern will not always be “textbook” perfect like you will learn from various courses/lessons. The market itself is not perfect, so remember that when you analyze the market.
Last but not least, and inverse H and S is just a mirror of a typical H and S. It's just now you are spotting them at the bottom of the overall price action, and rather to reverse into a bullish trend.
As always, any questions, comments or feedback please let me know.
Thank you
Jojo
Setting up and utilize tradingview (layout, drawing panel)Hello everyone:
Welcome back to a quick video on tradingview setups. Many of you have asked me about how you should set up your charts, your settings, customizations, watchlist..etc. So I will make a quick explanation video on this.
Chart:
-Create a blank chart
-Save under different names for different purposes
-candlesticks
-timeframes
-screens
-syncing
Setting/customization:
-color
-appearances
Drawing Panels:
-favorite the ones you're gonna use the most.
Watchlist:
-create watchlist
-flagging
Alerts:
-set only the ones with high probability potential, do need to set like 30 alarms.
As always, any questions, comments or feedback please let me know.
Thank you
In depth look at continuation bull/bear flag structures/patterns
Hello everyone:
Welcome back to another quick educational video on price action structures/patterns.
Today let's go deeper into the continuation correctional structure. Specifically, the continuation bull/bear flag structure.
First it's important to understand that a bullish/bearish flag is a continuation correction.
They are representing a correctional phrase of the price action, before resuming the previous impulse phrase.
As price action traders, we must be able to identify what correction we are seeing.
This will allow you to get ahead and make your forecasting so you are prepare to any potential entries
Second, bullish/bearish flag correction will appear in any time frames, any markets, and in different sizes.
Typically a flag correction will have at least 2 swing highs and 2 swing lows and relatively even and proportion in angle or length.
They can be slightly slanted or very parallel to each other. Remember the market is not perfect, it wont always present us picture perfect, textbook structures.
Thirds, So its important to understand multi-time frame analysis, top down approach.
A LTF bullish/bearish flag may or may not have the potential to start taking off massively due to the higher time frame showing us a conflicting bias.
So its important to add as much confluence to your trade as possible.
As always, any questions, feedback or comments please let me know :)
See you all in my next weekly outlook stream.
Thank you
DJI (Wall Street): Pattern in the chaos.In this chart I show a tight summary of what's been happening with the DJI (Wall Street). I apply the theory of curves. It shows weakening momentum in its north side drive.
I refer to just a handful of fundamental issues for both the bulls and the bears . In recent times various forms of 'stimulus' has kept this market afloat. Then in the last 2 weeks, hope and greed surrounding the Consolidated Appropriations Bill 2021, gave some life but volatility in the market.
This evening (2020-20-23), there is nervousness because the Bill was referred to by POTUS as "a disgrace". That is a real cause for nervousness because POTUS has snookered himself i.e. if he doesn't veto the Bill. This is a matter of law and politics but entirely relevant to market volatility. I take no sides. All I know is that there is money to be made (and lost), wherever there is volatility.
But anything is possible, they say in these markets.
It's probable that price can move up as well as it can correct down. The main job of a trader is not be to right, but to limit how wrong s/he might be with controlled affordable losses. The other nice part of the job is letting winning positions run when the market is in his/her favour.
It's so simple - but NOT easy, obviously. 😄
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
In depth look into double tops/bottoms price action structures
Merry Christmas everyone:
Hope everyone is well and healthy, and enjoy the holiday season as much as we can :)
Back here with another quick educational video on price action structures/patterns. I am going to go into detail on double tops/bottoms type of price action.
Many of you have asked me to elaborate more on what double tops/bottoms truly mean, and they sometimes get confused with a support/resistance. I will go into more detail on this topic to clarify the differences.
In addition, I will bring out some different examples in the market, and demonstrate how I see double tops/bottoms the way that works for my trading and its analysis.
How I confirmed what a true double tops/bottoms is, and how to look for potential entries once you see them form.
Understanding that multiple time frame analysis, nature of the market plays a big role to determine if the double tops/bottoms are “valid” and to give us more confidence to enter a position.
The higher the time frame, the more significant it is to that double tops/bottoms and the potential reversal move from it.
As always, any questions or feedback please let me know.
Merry Christmas and happy new year everyone :)
Thank you
Jojo
How to scale into the impulsive phrase of the market condition? Hello everyone:
I want to go over an important topic of scaling into the market. This is something more advanced in my opinion, and should be used cautiously when applicable.
First you will need to understand that it's important to fully accept the risk when you try to scale in a trade.
Essentially you are doubling down on a trade when you do so. What is your risk management when it comes to scaling in ?
Second thing to watch out for is managing your first initial position.
I would generally move my SL to at least BE or in 1:1 profit. This way even if the second trade that I scale in end up to be a lost, I am BE overall on the two trades.
Third point to remember is before you scale in the trade, is there enough R:R to justify it?
No random entries just because there is a continuation correction on the 5 min chart as an example.
Some price action must be present and give you enough confidence that the price is likely to continue from a structure, and then look to scale in the trade.
Any questions or comments please let me know :)
Thank you
Take a closer look at price action analysis in trading Hi traders:
Hope all is doing well. I want to do another quick educational video on price action analysis.
Many have asked me to elaborate on this topic, and I thought video is the best way to do so.
So basic understanding of price action analysis is that after a strong impulse phrase in the market, we will get a period of consolidation (correction) before the price is likely to resume the direction.
This is what we can structures and patterns when the correction begin to form.
Understand that when we dont see a correctional structure after a strong impulse, this is usually a sign from the market telling us the price may reverse soon.
Its important to fully acknowledge what the market is presenting to us, and if we are seeing different clues from the market, then accept it, and change your analysis's view.
As always let me know if you have any questions or comments.
Thank you
Trend Trading Techniques and Strategy!!! In a strong trending market, it is important to find entries at the high probability zones i.e. Fib Retracements. Ideally within the .382 - .618 zones. It may be tempting to enter the market during a period of strong momentum, but itmust be known that every strong trend contains correction phases, this is where you capitalise on the trend momentum. Entering the market mid-impulse can work occasionally and can be misleading to the beginner trader, over a long period of time this just wont work(All profitablilty and success of a trader comes from a long period of trades/ time trading, one trade does not determine success). Once price has corrected to the ideal Fib zone, you can now look for an entry setup to capitalise on the potential momentum shift and continuation of impulse.
Elliott wave Principle : Triangles There are 3 Types of Triangle,
Triangle forms in Corrective waves,
Triangle occurs in wave 2, 4 & B,
1) Contracting Triangle
+ Always Subdivides Into Five waves
+ at least four waves among wave A, B, C, D, each subdivide
into a Zigzag or Zigzag Combination.
+wave C never moves Beyond the end of wave A, wave D never moves beyond the end of waves b and D converges with a line connecting the eds of waves A and C.
+A triangle never has more than one Complex sun wave, in which case it is always a zigzag combination or a triangle.
2) Expanding Triangle :
most Rules are same as for contracting triangle
differences is :
+ wave C, D and E each moves beyond the end of the preceding same- directional sub-wave.
+ sub-waves B, C and D each retrace the last 100%
but no more than 150 Percent of preceding sub-wave.
3) Barrier triangle :
+ a Barrier Triangle has the same characteristics as a contracting triangle expect that waves B and D end at essentially the same level.
We have yet to observe a 9-wave barrier triangle, implying that this form may not extend.
+ when wave 5 follows a triangle, it is typically either a brief, rapid movement or an exceptionally long extension.
Elliott Wave Analysis: OMGUSD In A Correction Before HigherHello traders!
Today we will talk about OmiseGO (OMGUSD) and its price action + wave structure from Elliott Wave perspective.
Some cryptocurrencies were in a massive and impulsive rise since March and one of them is also OMGUSD, in which we clearly see a five-wave bullish cycle into wave A/1 on the weekly chart. We know that after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows, so an a-b-c correction in wave B/2 could be already in progress, which can send the price ideally back to 50%-61,8% Fibo. retracement before the uptrend for wave C/3 resumes.
If we take a look on a daily chart, we can see five-wave fall from the highs labeled as the first leg "a", so current recovery can be only temporarily, as part of a lower degree three-wave (a)-(b)-(c) corrective rise in wave "b" with ideal resistance around 5.0 - 7.0 area, from where we should be aware of another sell-off for wave "c" to complete a higher degree wave B/2. And ideal strong support, where bulls may show up again, would be around the previous wave "iv" swing low and 1.5 support area.
Be humble and trade smart!
If you like what we do, then please like and share the idea!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
How to utilize Multi-time frame analysis in your trading
Hello everyone:
In this educational video, I will discuss how I utilize multi-time analysis in my trading.
-What multi-time frame analysis does is to help us to get more clarity on what the overall market is doing from a top down approach.
-Analysis should always start on the higher time frames such as Monthly/Weekly/Daily.
-Then, drop down to the lower time frames such as 4H/1H,30/15/5 Min to confirm the HTF move and look for possible entries.
Price action and structures work inter-related with multi-time frame analysis.
-In a HTF impulsive phrase, there will be many LTF impulses and corrections to push the price up/down.
-In a HTF correctional phrase, there will also be LTF impulses and corrections, but within the larger HTF correction.
The key to multi-time frame analysis is to properly identify the next HTF impulsive phrase, and capitalize it by entering on the LTF price action. This allows you to maximize your R:R greatly.
In addition, combining multi-time frame analysis with price action will also give you clues on where the price is likely to go, hence calculating your targets and anticipating the movement from the market.
As always any questions or feedback please let me know :)
Thank you
DAX COLLAPSE POSSIBLE: Does history repeat itself?This is an analysis of trend formation.
The DAX (Ger30) appears to be in a precarious position. Several features are shown on the charts.
No one knows what the future will bring. Some may have ideas but no one can know the future. Sound traders take positions with an acceptable, affordable loss.
Looking back to 25th February 2020, no one knew with near certainty that the DAX would fall further from around 12600. Then it happened. This does not mean that in the current situation, I'm saying that the DAX will fall in the same way from 11600. It's a strange coincidence though that '600' appears in the numbers. Please do not attach significance to that.
Some have been disappointed that I do not do predictions. I've explained my position on predictions before. Trend following requires no predictions. Why? Because one is just following the markets rather blindly! I've also explained how my unique methodology works in other posts.
On a related note you can see that one thing the markets are deathly afraid of is the effects of COVID-19. Well, around now the world is facing second and third waves of the virus heading at speed for Winter in the Northern hemisphere.
I have evidence for both second and third waves. Due to house rules this is not posted here.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
EW Analysis: DigiByte Can See A Deeper Corrective DeclineHello traders!
Today we will talk about crypocurrencies, specifically DigiByte (DGBUSD) and it's price action from Elliott Wave perspective.
Cryptocurrencies are turning to the downside together with stocks after that strong and impulsive rally from March lows. Why cryptocurrecies follow the stock market is because they are not generally in use yet and they are just speculative asset based on investors mood at the moment. So, if investors do not trust the stock market, then they will not trust the Crypto market neither.
Anyway, let's take a look on an interesting pattern that can be seen on the DigiByte. As you can see, DGBUSD has a completed five-wave cycle from March lows, mainly because we can see a clear triangle formation in wave "iv" with perfectly reaching target into wave "v". And we know that in EW thoery, after every five waves, a three-wave a-b-c pullback follows, so watch out for a deeper decline, because wave "c" is still missing, which can actually push the price even down to golden 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 0.019 - 0.013 support zone before we may see a bullish continuation. If we consider that correction may last for about 71 days like it was previous triangle in wave "iv", then we can expect a support to be reached at the end of October, but this is still just an analysis, so time will tell!
Be humble and trade smart!
If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Impulse VS Correction - Price Action Analysis Hello everyone:
In this educational video, I will go over what an impulse and a correction is in the market.
I will point out how to distinguish them in different time frames, and give a few examples on them as well.
The market can only be in two phrases.
Either its in an impulsive phrase, or a corrective phrase.
It doesn't matter what market or the time frames you are looking at, there will always be impulses and corrections.
So, what is an impulse, and what is a correction?
Impulse - price is in the high momentum period, and it's moving very fast.
Correction - price is consolidating, and moving sideway, or slowing ascending/descending sideway price action.
Determine what is impulse, and what is correction will give you a better edge in the market. You don't want to get trapped in the consolidation within the corrections.
How can I utilize this to my analysis ?
Multi-time frame analysis:
From HTF, top down approach, Understand what HTF is doing and go down to LTF for confirmation and entries for the best R:R.
Thank you
In Depth Look at Continuation & Reversal Structures/Patterns
Hi everyone:
In this educational video, I will explain how I determine reversal and continuation structures/patterns in the market.
Many have asked me to break this topic down more in depth and in live, so I hope I can address all the questions I get on this.
So, in my opinion there is only 2 main type of structures/patterns:
Continuation Structures
Reversal Structures
The key to find consistency in price action trading is to identify what kind of correction the structure is forming. Is it a reversal, or is it a continuation?
Since after a correction is finished, we are likely to see an impulse move from that structure, and it's good to understand when and how likely that structure will either continue or reverse the current price.
Below I will list out some of the most commonly identified reversal and continuation corrections.
To me, it's not too important what people call these structures/patterns, but what you need to determine is, is it a reversal or continuation structure?
Because, the market is ever evolving, and price action structures/patterns are also evolving.
Sure we can learn a lot from the typical “Textbook” structure and patterns, but they often or not won't be picture perfect,
and we need to utilize what else the market is telling us to determine the structures.
Continuation Structure
-flag
-channel
-triangle
-pennant
Reversal Structure
-wedge
-ascending/descending channel
-Double Tops/Bottoms (M and W pattern)
-Head and Shoulder
Understanding how the price has been moving thus far, will give you a more clear understanding of what the structure is going to form.
For example:
-When we see price at the top of a HTF structure, slowing down and correcting itself up, you will be looking for reversal structure from the top, and looking for the sell.
-When we see prices broken out of the HTF structure, you will be looking for a continuation structure to form and continue the buy.
As always ,feel free to ask me questions or comments.
Thank you
Clear points of entry for either scenario - VERY clean setup.This pair has been sat in some serious corrective price action. i'm hoping we can see a break next week. Which way do i think its likely to break?
Probably up, but i'm also very aware that if the bears muster the strength to break that 1.180 area, then we also have a double top that could be good to trade to the bottom of that correction.
Targets for the (potential) double top sit near enough directly on that bottom level.
So to summarise, although i think this pair is likely to break above, i will not be trading my opinion. i'll be trading what i see.
A break, close & pullback on the upper level and ill be looking for longs.
A break of that (potential) double top neckline and ill be looking to short to the corrections bottom.
MACD looking as though the double top could easily come into play, but as above, i'll trade whatever it wants to give us.
EW Analysis: NEOUSD Can See A Deeper Corrective DeclineHello traders!
Today we will talk about cryptocurrencies, specifically NEO and its price action from Elliott Wave perspective.
NEOUSD made an impulsive five-wave cycle from March lows, which suggests a bullish reversal at least in three waves A/1 - B/2 - C/3. Since the beginning of June, seems like NEO is making a three-wave a-b-c correction, where wave "c" is still missing. So, don't be surprised if we see another decline towards projected 8.0 - 6.0 support zone around important 61,8% - 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and this is where a higher degree wave B/2 correction may come to an end, which can be followed by strong and impulsive bounce back to highs for wave C/3. In case if we see something deeper and more complex, invalidation level remains at 4.0!
Be humble and trade smart!
If you like what we do, then please like and share!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
EW Analysis: SPY May Face Another DeclineHello traders!
Today we will talk about stocks, specifically SPY (S&P500 ETF) and its price action from Elliott Wave perspective.
At the beginning of June SPY turned sharply and impulsively down, clearly with five waves, which in EW theory actually indicates a bearish reversal at least in three waves A-B-C.
Currently we can see it finishing a corrective wave B, also with three waves a-b-c, where wave "c" should be made by five subwaves. Ideally we will see a fake Monday rise into a wave (v) of "c" that can be a nice bull trap before we may see a bearish turn.
If we also consider an important 78,6% Fibonacci retracement, strong channel resistance line and equality measurement of wave a=c, then ideal resistance would be around 318-320 area and this is from where we should be aware of another stock market sell-off now at the beginning of July, similar as occured at the beginning of June.
So, watch out for limited gains in the stock market in the upcoming week and if we see a strong decline from projected resistance zone, then we might be on the right track back to lows below 300 region for wave C, but the price needs to stay beneath 232.50 invalidation level.
Be humble and invest smart!
If you like what we do, then please support us with a like and share!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
EW Analysis: USD Dollar Index May Face Limited DownsideHello traders!
Today we will talk about US Dollar - $DXY - USD Index.
DXY was in a big sideways consolidation since March, ideally within a bearish triangle in wave B. Currently, we can see it finally breaking into new lows for wave C that can stop in the 97.50 - 96.50 support zone around important 61,8% - 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and from where we may see a bullish reversal at least in three waves, maybe even back to 103 highs, but to confirm our view, we need to see a bounce and recovery back above 100 region.
What we want to point out is that if you are familiar with Elliott Waves, then you know that triangles cannot occur in wave 2, so it must be a B wave, followed by the final wave C decline and then the whole structure looks corrective within uptrend.
We just want you to be careful at this stage, so don't fall in love with bears just yet, because even stocks can be trading at extreme levels and with a potential sell-off, USD Dollar may be a safe-heaven again.
If you like what we do, then please support/follow us!
Trade smart!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
S&P500 - Looking back to 2001. This is a pretty short vid. I'm looking back to 2001 to see what happened, to cautiously draw some ideas about what may happen in the 2020 bear market. The present picture is very different, of course.
2020 is showing a faster deeper dive. The SPX has recovered to a 61.8 fib. It could go higher.
If it heads south, it's impossible to say how far south.
Second wave or no wave - the choice is yours! Just have a look. I present a case for probability south on the DJI (Wall Street).
Reality is catching up.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
