Correction
The VIX: A Measure of Market FearThe VIX, or Volatility Index, is a measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days. It is calculated using the prices of options on the S&P 500 index. A higher VIX indicates that market participants are expecting more volatility in the future, while a lower VIX indicates that they are expecting less volatility.
The VIX is an important tool for investors because it can help them understand how risky the stock market is. A high VIX indicates that the market is expected to be volatile, which means that there is a greater chance of large price swings. This can make investing more risky, but it can also create opportunities for profit.
The VIX is also correlated with the S&P 500 index. This means that the VIX tends to move in the opposite direction of the S&P 500. When the S&P 500 falls, the VIX tends to rise, and when the S&P 500 rises, the VIX tends to fall. This correlation is not perfect, but it is strong enough to be useful for investors.
The VIX can be used in a variety of ways by investors. Some investors use the VIX to assess the risk of their portfolios. Others use the VIX to trade volatility, either by buying or selling VIX futures contracts. Still others use the VIX to hedge against risk in other assets.
The VIX is a complex and volatile asset, but it can be a valuable tool for investors who understand how to use it.
Here are some additional things to keep in mind about the VIX:
The VIX is not a direct measure of the volatility of the stock market. It is a measure of the expected volatility, which means that it is based on the opinions of market participants.
The VIX can be affected by a variety of factors, including economic news, political events, and natural disasters.
The VIX is not always accurate. It can sometimes overshoot or undershoot the actual volatility of the stock market.
Despite its limitations, the VIX is a valuable tool for investors. It can help investors understand the risk of the stock market and make informed investment decisions.
I hope this post is helpful.
This analysis represents my thoughts at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
MOMENTUMB and MARKET CORRECTIONHello everyone!
Today I want to draw your attention to the momentum and price correction.
In fact, any price movement consists of an impulse and a correction.
You can earn money on each of these phases.
Impulse
An impulse movement is a strong price movement towards the main trend.
As a trader, it is right that you should open positions in this direction.
This movement is quite easy to identify.
How correctly an impulse movement will spend less time covering a longer distance than a corrective movement.
The impulse has a large force that pushes the price in the right direction, so the movement is strong and fast.
Correction
The corrective movement is characterized by a smaller force of movement.
Very often, the correction will move in one corridor without much updating of the highs or lows.
The fact is that with a corrective movement in the price, there is not enough force to update the maximum or minimum.
The movement will be weak, resembling trampling on the spot.
Of course, you can earn money in such a period, but it will be more difficult to do this than when trading on impulse movement.
In addition , there is always a risk that the trend will pick up again and push the price against you and very quickly .
You simply won't have time to close a position if you haven't set a stop loss.
Support and resistance
It is important to note how the level from which the price makes a reaction is first support, then resistance when breaking through.
This is a frequent occurrence in all markets.
The impulse conceals a force that cannot break through the level immediately, so the correction begins and the accumulation of new energy to overcome the level.
After that, a breakdown occurs.
At this point, support becomes resistance.
The price during the correction, as we remember, does not have sufficient strength to update the maximum and the level becomes a resistance that the price cannot pass.
The correction rests on the level and failed to overcome it.
And this structure is quite common.
Conclusions
The main conclusion is simple - trade according to the trend.
Learn to identify impulse movement and corrective movement, so it will be easier for you to determine the trend.
Watch how the price reacts to the levels.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
How the higher time frames help you to avoid unnecessary losses Hello everyone:
Today I want to discuss the importance of higher time frame analysis.
Doesn't matter what type of trading strategy, method or style you use,
the higher time frame often will help us to strengthen our bias overall and give us a good perspective of the possible direction for the price to go.
In addition, it helps traders to avoid unnecessary losses and mediocre entries that will eat up your profits.
More often I hear traders will execute trades on the lower time frames, and not factor the overall higher time frame bias and perspective.
Although entering on the smaller time frame can potentially give you more Risk:Reward, it's often more risky and trades can easily reverse, then hit the stop loss.
This often creates stress, negativity, and revenge trading psychology for traders which ended up blowing accounts.
I want to give a few examples of higher time frame analysis, how they can help traders to avoid “traps” on the lower time frames, avoid unnecessary losses, and keep the emotion at bay to trade another day.
When having a bullish bias on the HTFs, its good risk management to not consider any short term, bearish sell setups.
These sell setups may form on the LTFs, but they can easily not continue to your desired target, and reverse up before you have time to react.
In addition, traders hate to see profit come and go.
So if a trader has a short position running in some profit, but decides to hold onto the trade, and once the position reverses, traders don't want to exit, and then end up holding a losing position to its SL.
Examples:
AUDUSD:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: Many LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, they ended up with losses
NZDUSD:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: Many LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, they ended up with losses
AUDCHF:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
NZDCHF:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
NZDCAD:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
SILVER:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
How to analyze any market from scratch #3Hello everyone:
Many of you have asked me to continue making more of these analysing from scratch video, so I have prepared another one here for you today.
Not only will we refresh the previous 2 educational videos on this topic, I will go into a bit more details on the confirmation on the lower time frames with multiple examples in the chart.
Recall from the previous videos I made, when we want to analyze the chart from scratch, we always start:
1. From the higher time frames (HTF) to identify the impulse/correction phases of the market conditions so we can come up with a possible bias and direction of the current price.
2. Once we have a possible direction and bias, then we go down to the lower time frames (LTF) to also identify the impulse/correction phases which will lead to your confirmation and entry.
These are simple steps to follow, based on multi-time frame analysis, top down approach.
Many have told me it's not hard to identify the HTF’s impulse and correction, but what can be classified as a LTF confirmation before entry?
Let's take a detail look into a few examples:
A LTF confirmation is when the price is developing a few more price action structures/patterns that align with your HTF direction and bias.
These can be continuation/reversal corrections on the LTF; impulse phases on the LTF that go with your bias on the HTF; multiple corrections within the larger corrections (patterns within patterns)...etc.
The more of these LTF price actions you can identify, the more it strengthens your analysis and forecast on the HTF.
Thank you
Do check out my previous educational contents on this same topic to better learn my approach to analyse any market from scratch.
How to analyze any market from scratch #1
How to analyze any market from scratch #2
The Anatomy of a Bear MarketRecently, a lot of people have been talking about the possibility of a multi-year recession. I don't think that is a clear depiction of the current situation, but I am aware that the idea stems from a lack of understanding of bear market structures, and influence of market sentiment. So in this post, I'll be going over Ken Fishers' rules and conditions that must be met in order for a market to be clarified as a bear market, and how you can best position yourself to minimize downside risk.
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
The Four Rules of a Bear Market
- The first rule is the two percent rule: a bear market typically declines by about 2% per month.
- Sometimes it declines by more than 2%, sometimes it’s less—but overall and on average, bear markets don’t often begin with the sharp, sudden drop some anticipate.
- If a bear does drop by more than 2% per month, there’s often a market counter-rally that can provide better opportunities for investors to sell.
- The three month rule: This rule advocates waiting three months after you suspect a peak has happened before calling a bear market.
- Rather than trying to guess when a market top might come, this rule ensures one has passed before taking defensive investment action.
- It provides a window of time to assess fundamental investment data, market action and possible bear market drivers.
- I often see lots of people call market tops and bottoms, and time the market perfectly, but it needs to be clearly understood that this isn't the right approach to understanding the market.
- Next, we have the the two-thirds / one-third rule.
- About one-third of the stock market’s decline occurs in the first two-thirds of a bear’s duration, and about two-thirds of the decline occurs in the final one-third.
- This was the case in the bear market caused by the financial crisis, as well as many other bear markets including that of 1973.
- Combining this with the three month rule, it also implies that if you have identified that a market has indeed begun its bear run, you might be better off taking profits/losses on your position, managing risk by increasing your cash holdings, and buying back when capitulation has happened.
- And finally, we have the 18-month rule.
- While bull market durations vary considerably, statistics demonstrate that the average bear market duration, since 1946, has only been 16 months.
- Very few in modern history last fully two years or longer.
- If you’re engaging a defensive investment strategy, you probably shouldn’t bet on one lasting so long.
- The longer a bear market runs, the more likely you’re waiting too long to re-invest.
- If you remain bearish for longer than 18 months, you may miss out on the rocket-like market ride that is almost always the beginning of the next bull run.
- Missing that can be very costly for investors.
So are we currently in a bear market?
- Based on the four rules above, there's a high probability that we are not in a bear market.
- Since I've uploaded this post, the market has bounced swiftly off the 100 moving average on the weekly.
- Just as the covid-induced drop of March 2020 turned out to be a 'buy the dip' opportunity, as opposed to the beginning of a bear market, the sharp correction we have seen since the beginning of this year goes against the first rule of the bear market.
- It’s critical not to call a bear market falsely, and this is a huge mistake that a lot of people make.
- If the market is just going through a correction (a short, sentiment-driven downturn of -10% to -20%), you’re better off riding through it and maintaining your portfolio.
- It is impossible to accurately and consistently time market corrections because of the way they behave.
- A correction can start for any reason or no reason. So if you believe that the economy is strong, and the fundamentals of the company you invest in remain solid, there's no need to sell off your holdings, especially when your actions are motivated by fear.
Conclusion
Bull market corrections are not fun, but it's important as an investor for you to be able to distinguish bear markets/recessions from bull market corrections. Choosing to undertake a bear market investment strategy and go defensive should be rare and shouldn’t be done by gut feel or by your neighbor’s opinion. Exiting the market is among the biggest investment risks you can take—if you’re wrong and you have a need for portfolio growth, missing bull market returns can be extremely costly.
If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content!
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
Safe Haven Currency, How are they affected by global eventsHello everyone:
Want to talk a bit more about safe haven currency in the market.
Since the recent tension between Russia and Ukraine,
the safe haven currency could strengthen as a result of such uncertainty in the world.
We will take a look at some past history of these currency pairs,
how they react to the market at the time, and what could we reasonably expect in the current market conditions.
Safe Haven Currency
USD
JPY
CHF
It's in our interest to look for opportunities when a strong currency is paired with a weaker one.
This generally will move the price very impulsively with strong momentum.
Pair such as these below will potentially develop the best price action for good R:R trades.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
GBPUSD
AUDJPY
NZDJPY
CADJPY
GBPJPY
AUDCHF
NZDCHF
GBPCHF
CADCHF
Always have good risk management when it comes to entering. Don't enter all the pairs, don't open too many positions,
and understand correlation between the currency pairs.
Thank you
DISCLAIMER:
-My forecast and analysis are NOT trading signals nor financial advice, you should not enter trades and invest solely on this information.
Jojo
Two Types of Elliot Wave CorrectionsWhen it comes to Elliot Wave Theory, we know of two different correction patterns .
On the left you can see the classic correction, which is less common in real market situations. On the other hand, the flat correction (right) occurs more frequently in the market, since modern price action is often characterized by fakeouts . In this case, a fakeout looks like a wave B making a new high above wave A. In most cases, traders would open a trade here due to a structural break, which then runs against them (bull or bear trap).
In the following table you can see how the respective correction patterns differ from each other and what you need to pay attention to.
It is very important that you learn how to use Fibonacci tools correctly so that you can calculate the wavelength properly. Maybe I'll do a separate educational post on the proper use of those tools in future.
Thank you very much for your attention,
Your RT
How to analyze any market from scratch (Impulse & Correction) #2Hello everyone:
I received positive feedback on the last video on how to analyze the market from scratch,
and many have told me to make more of these similar contents. So here we go :)
I will go through multiple examples of how I would analyze the market by following these simple steps:
Multi-time frame analysis (Top Down Approach) Start from HTF to LTF
Identify the Impulse Phase and Correction Phase
Identify whether the Corrections is Continuation or Reversal
HTF Bias > LTF Confirmation > LTF Entry
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :)
Thank you
How to analyze any market from scratch #1
DISCLAIMER:
-My forecast and analysis are NOT financial Advice, you should not trade and invest solely on this information.
-There are many scammers & fakers impersonating me, my channels/platforms to scam people. Be very careful as I will NEVER private/direct message you first no matter what.
supports and resistances and how they convert ✔First of all lets start with the brief technical explanation and after that go through the analyse DOGE ✔
1 support( an imaginary line, level or area )
👍one of the most simplest technical tool that use for indicating the proper point for buyers to enter or purchase one stock
for using support line
we need more than tow price points that an asset doesn't fall below more than those points and using line to connect them
2 resistance ( an imaginary line, level or area )
👍unlike support line investors use it to figure out the place for exit or selling one stock
and for using resistance
exactly like support line we need more than tow price points and one line to connect them but we should pay attention to this point that asset doesn't ascend above those points
⏲how support and resistance line convert to each other ⏲
👍support and resistance can easily change to each others in simple word when acceptable penetration of the price happen in one line for next price hit (be touched by the price ) this line act as an opposite function
for example we have strong support area if the price stand below this line and stay away for awhile for next time when the price become close to this area it will works as a resistance for the price
3 breakout
👍usually indicates new trend
when the acceptable penetration happens by the price to one support or resistance in indirect way
for example we have strong support line and the price start to stands below the line and continue its movement here we have breakout
you can use horizontal line at the left corner of your charts at trading view for indicating your supports and resistances.
or using other tools like Rectangle or Ellipse and indicate support or resistance zone instead of simple line.
🚀🚀analyse of idea🚀🚀
here we have important daily trend line and strong support area 💣
so
If the price breaks this trend line and price stay above this line we expect gain for the price
and
our noticeable resistance line and our next target are located on the chart.
This is not financial advice, always do your own research.
🐳MAD WHALE🐋
CHFJPY - Identify These Moves - FULL Breakdown 📚A key part of technical analysis is to identify the different phases and patterns in the market.
So, what can we see?
- We can see that we're within a major ascending parallel channel and price has been respecting it. When price approaches either extremes of the channel, it rejects aggressively.
- There are 2 key phases at play here. The blue phase is the impulse and the red phase is the correction.
- The impulse phase is an upward movement and the corrective phase is a downward move
After identifying these phases, what next?
- So now that we know that the impulse phase ends at the upper limit of the channel, we know there's a corrective move coming back down to the channel support.
- If there's enough momentum, we can break the channel support and keep falling. As we're in an ascending channel, it is often a reversal pattern = there's a high chance that CHFJPY can come back down all the way to 109
- Now we need a trading plan to enter this trade
How do we trade it?
- The risk entry would have been at the rejection of the channel resistance
- The safe entry would be to identify when the impulse has ended. One way we can do this is by identifying when the uptrend has ended. This can be done by using a trendline (like the one we have) and watching for a break to indicate that the uptrend has ended and the next phase has begun.
Trade Idea:
Watch for the ascending red trendline to break and enter with stops above the channel.
First Target: Target the channel support for first targets (500pips)
Second Target: The bottom of the channel (1,600pips)
Hope this breakdown was helpful. If so, do leave a like and comment what you think!
5 Key Advices To Share With Trader Who Is Struggling In TradingHello everyone:
Lately many of you have messaged me about getting FOMO and entering trades without confirmations.
In addition you can't seem to “not” enter trades when the market hasn't shaped up to your strategy and entry criteria.
I am hoping in today’s educational video it can help some of you guys to get back on track.
I want to share 5 main pieces of advice that can help out traders who are currently struggling.
These are experiences and lessons that I accumulate throughout the 8 years of trading and in hope to help some of you who are struggling in your current journey of trading.
1. Do “NOT” think about get rich quick in trading
-Trading is a marathon, not a sprint
-90-95% traders fail due to a combination of: Greed, FOMO, mindset/emotion, risk management, trading psychology.
-Trading is not a get rich quick scheme, but it can produce consistent, sustainable passive income if you can put in the time and effort
-Most try to jump to the result right away, without going through the journey, that is not how life works.
2. No trading strategies, style, method can give you 100% strike rate
-Trading is probability, not right or wrong.
-Understand you can have the best strategy in the world, and still not be profitable.
- Technical, Fundamental, Algo, EA...etc can all not work. This is why risk management is important to not over risk, over trade, over leverage your trading account
3. Backtest and journal
-Backtest your strategy so your brain acknowledges and recognizes it over and over again.
-Slowly build up confidence in your strategy and method. IT will come to you like second nature
-Journal all your wins and losses so you can review them. Work on them, accept your mistakes to grow and improve.
4. Control your EGO
-Human beings have ego to prove others are wrong and they are right
-We refuse to admit we made the error/mistakes, and blame others/external as the cause.
-Acknowledge that in trading, stop blaming the market, the broker, the mentor, the strategy...etc.
-Don't take things personally and be offended by it.
5. Never Give Up
-I blew several accounts in the beginning of trading career, gave up and quit trading multiple times
-I always ended up coming back to trading. After taking time off. Whether that is weeks or months in the beginning journey.
-No one is born into a trader, just like no one is born into a doctor, lawyer.
-If trading was that easy, then everyone would be rich.
-Success is measure by how many times you get back up when you failed
I hope these pointers can help you guys to get more focus and get back on track in trading.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know, thank you
Jojo
Below I will share others educational videos that have direct relations to the topics above:
Trading Psychology: How to deal & manage losses/consecutive losses in trading ?
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Trading Psychology: Is there Stop Loss Hunting in Trading ? How to deal with it ?
Prevent Blowing an account by backtesting:
Risk Management 101
How to analyze the market from scratch (Impulse & Correction)Hello everyone:
Many have asked me about demonstrating how to analyze the chart from complete scratch.
When looking at my chart and educational video, it all seems very simple, but many are telling me they are struggling to identify the market.
Today I will go over how I analyze the chart, from the Higher time frame down to lower time frame by using multi-time frame analysis, top down approach.
Specifically by identifying price action, impulse and correction phases of the market.
1. Start from the Higher Time Frame (HTF): HTF can be any time frame higher than the daily chart, such as monthly, weekly, daily.
Personally I like to use daily as a go to time frame as it is widely used by traders.
2. Identify the impulse phase of the market. Understand the impulse phase is a period of fast momentum,
price is either pushing up or down very aggressively, and not much consolidation visible on the HTF.
3. Identify a period of consolidations. Using trendlines, connect the swing highs and lows of the price.
This is to identify the correction/consolidation phase of the market.
Which is the most important aspect in price action analysis.
You will need to be very knowledgeable on the type of continuation, reversal correction patterns/structures the market usually will form.
(I will share many price action patterns/structures that I identify and use in the market below)
4. Once you identify the HTF phase of the market, you will then go down to the Lower time frames (LTF).
LTF can be anything under 2/1 HR, 30/15 Min charts. It's not a specific time frame, rather “Multi time frame analysis”.
You will also identify the impulse phases & Correction phases on the LTF and use trendlines to connect the swing highs and lows of the correction/consolidation phase, just like what we did on the HTF.
5. Now that you have both the HTF and LTF charts drawn out, the key here is to have both the HTF and LTF tell you the same direction/bias.
They should align up and have the same bullish/bearish bias. This will strengthen your probability of success.
I always make sure when I am about to enter any trades, I want the multi-time frames all telling me the same story. Same bias, same direction.
6. Now all that comes down to is forecasting the possible entries, which I have made many videos on this topic and I will share some below.
Understand you would always want to make sure you are either entering during the impulse phase on the LTF,
or the price is about to start the impulse phase to gain the upper hands in the market.
You do not want to enter when the price is in a consolidation which is why many traders end up losing money, stuck in the correction and price isn't moving too much, rather just sideways.
7. Continue to work on analyzing the chart from scratch, get comfortable at identifying the impulse phase in the market,
and do backtesting continuously so you identify the corrections in the market.
This will make you see the chart and the market completely different than before, and you will have a much better probability of entering trades that work out in your favour.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know.
Jojo
Below I will share many educational videos that will help you to understand more on price action analysis, impulse/correction phase, entry, forecasting, backtesting and more.
Continuation and Reversal Correction
Identify a correction for the next impulse move in price action analysis
Multi-time frame analysis
Continuation Bull/Bear Flag
Parallel Channel (Horizontal, Ascending, Descending)
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Reversal Rising/Falling Wedge
Reversal Double Top/Bottom
Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern
Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
Continuation/Reversal Expanding Structure/Pattern
Risk Management: 3 different entries on how to enter the impulsive phrase of price action
Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an impulse move in the market
Risk Management: When/How to move SL to BE and to profit in a running trade ?
How forecasting can benefit your trading journey
Backtesting & Chartwork on Forex Market
Backtesting & Chartwork on Indices Market
Backtesting & Chartwork on Crypto Market
How & Why I backtest:
When/How to move SL to BE and to profit in a running trade ?Hello everyone:
Today I want to discuss a topic in Risk Management, specifically on when and how to move your STOP LOSS to BREAKEVEN or in PROFIT when you have a running profit trade/position.
In an impulsive phase of the market, we want to make sure to protect our entry as well as secure profits.
In this example of EURUSD, I managed to get 2 entries in, and manage it to my best ability and secure profits
Trade close down for +7.9% profit
Original Trade Forecast and Analysis:
This is a topic that will have various answers across traders, as this is certainly up to each individual trader’s strategy, style, and management approach.
So understand there is no right or wrong, “holy grail” kind of decision.
It's up to you individually as a trader. I will share my management, and why I choose to go with these types of approaches, and you can certainly use them to your advantage to tweak/modify them to fit your strategy.
Few things to keep in minds are:
1. Moving the SL to BE or/and in profit is a way to protect your entry, as well as secure profit.
2. Sometimes moving the SL too early may “choke” the price, and you can get stopped out for BE or small profit. Then watch the price take off in your desired direction, which can create negative emotion.
3. Whereas sometimes if you don't move SL to BE or in profit, you can watch a trade that hits 3:1 RR or more, end up reversing down, passing your entry point and to your actual SL of -1%, which can also create negative emotion.
4. No perfect scenario or management when it comes to the aspect of trading, as every trade is unique, and different outcomes may happen, since the market itself is not perfect, and can do whatever it wants to do.
Now, I will explain my own management when it comes to moving SL to BE or/and in profit.
Certainly this is NOT the only way, nor it will be the best way, but over the years of backtesting & chartwork have given me reassurance on these types of management ways.
I will then show some real live examples on the trades that I closed down, and how I manage them as well.
CADJPY -
Original Trade Forecast and Analysis:
GBPJPY -
Original Trade Forecast and Analysis:
CHFJPY -
Original Trade Forecast and Analysis:
NASDAQ -
AUDNZD -
Original Trade Forecast and Analysis:
First, a general rule of thumb for me. IF the price has hit about 1:1 RR or so, and has broken past the previous recent lows,
I will move my SL to BE. There is no exception in this rule.
Again, I explained earlier that sometimes this will help you to protect your entry when price reverses, and sometimes it will choke the price.
In this case, I would rather take a BE first, and re-look for entry again in the same position, as long as the bias and the price action is still valid on both the higher time frame and lower time frame.
Second, once the entry is in some profit, say 2:1 or higher, I generally will move the SL up to about +0.5% profit or so.
Just want to secure a little profit while not choking the price entirely.
Third, once the entry is in 3:1 profit, then I will move my SL to +1% profit.
This is where I generally will decide whether I should take full profit here, or hold the trade for a mid-long term if the higher time frame has given me the bias.
Fourth, since the trade has already been in 3:1 profit or higher, generally we can expect a continuation correction to form now after the impulse phase.
If it's a smaller correction and price isn't reversing up sharply right away, I will move my SL to about +1.5% profit, set my alert above the continuation correction and observe the development of the correction.
This is generally a point where I can decide to hold the trade longer, or if it reverses up from the continuation correction, then exit the trade for profit.
Fifth, if we start to see a possible reversal development, then I will move down my SL to the recent swing highs/lows,
or just above the reversal correctional structure, and will let the trade tag me out for profit if it reverses.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :)
If you enjoy these contents, and the educational lessons are helpful, please press like, subscribe and follow for more.
Jojo
How to use trendline to identify price action structure/patternHi everyone:
Many have asked me about how to properly use trendlines to identify price action structures and patterns. So in today’s educational video, I will go over this topic in more detail.
First, I use the trendline as a “frame” to identify structures and patterns, and NOT use it as a Support/Resistance.
What I do is to put in the trendline for the highs and lows of the price action that can help me to pinpoint what the price is doing, what kind of a correctional structure that it is currently in.
Typically after an impulse phase of the market, then we start to identify a structure/pattern by connecting the swing highs and lows.
Second, as I always point out in my videos/streams, a structure/pattern needs at least 2 swing highs and lows to classify as a structure.
Certainly more swing highs and lows are good, but it's not necessary. Often I get asked about the “third touch” or more. To me it's not necessary, but if price does form the third touch, I would proceed the same as the price has a second touch.
Third, we are identifying the price action correctional structure, and sometimes the market is not perfect, it will not give you a textbook looking bullish flag as an example.
Hence the backtesting and chartwork from each trader is important to get your mind familiarized with the market and its “imperfect” development of the price action.
After identifying the impulse phase, then look to see what the market is doing. Is it falling into a consolidation ?
Not much movement except sideway price action, or ascending/descending like consolidation will give you a clue on whether the price is correcting to continue, or correcting to reverse.
Take a look at the educational videos I have made in the past regarding the type of correctional structures we typically see in the market. All the videos are down below.
Continue to backtest and do chart work to get familiar with drawing in the structures/patterns. The more you do these, the better and easier it is for you to identify them in your trading journey.
Remember, the market is not perfect, so not all the structures/patterns will be “Textbook” like on the real, live market. Learn to deal with the “imperfect” market, so you can better utilize price action analysis to your advantage.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :)
Thank you
Below are all my price action structures/patterns videos on different type of corrections.
Continuation and Reversal Correction
Identify a correction for the next impulse move in price action analysis
Impulse VS Correction
Multi-time frame analysis
Continuation Bull/Bear Flag
Parallel Channel (Horizontal, Ascending, Descending)
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Reversal Rising/Falling Wedge
Reversal Double Top/Bottom
Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern
Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
Continuation/Reversal Expanding Structure/Pattern
NVDA, Continuation of correction or making new ATH ?Is NVDA on the way to make a new ATH or correction still continues? We have to follow.
NVDA is a beautiful example of different scenarios possibility! If we look at the chart (right side) we simply may consider that correction is completed at 0.382 Retracement of last rally with clear abc form of correction but, is this the only possible scenario? Of course NOT
Flat corrections may mislead many traders. Being aware about flat corrections and its characteristics is necessary but not enough at all.
Being realistic is a key. We have to consider all possible scenarios and control our emotions. Traders who are long from the last low may not want to see the other possible scenario. They certainly wish to see new ATH but it may takes some more time than they expect!.
On the left side of the chart we can see the flat correction. In a flat correction wave (a) is a 3 leg wave. wave (b) typically goes above 0.618 Retracement and touches 0.786 and even goes higher to 0.88 Retracement . Then, when every one expect a new high it suddenly goes for a 5 leg down wave (c).
Which scenario is going to happen? No one knows. We have to use some risk management tools to manage our risk . Of course opening a position at such conditions is gambling not trading.
We always trade objectively and try to see all possible scenarios. Don't we?
Closer look into Rising/Falling Wedge, Reversal Price Action
Closer look into Rising/Falling Wedge, Reversal Price Action structures/patterns
Hi traders:
Today I will go more in detail on rising/falling wedge correction in price action structures/patterns.
You might have already heard about these types of correctional structures, and many traders who utilize them.
Certainly there are many ways of traders identifying them and taking advantage of these kinds of price action, so it's ideal for you to understand them in your analysis.
We first need to understand that a rising/falling wedge is a REVERSAL price action. Meaning when the correction completes, there's a higher probability of the price to reverse.
You might have already seen multiple price action videos from me that go over all sorts of continuation and reversal price action (I will share links below),
and I always talk about when combining multiples of different price action structures/patterns will give you a better edge at entering positions that work out in your favor.
Same idea here, so let's take a look at how rising/falling wedges are, how to identify them, and how to effectively use them in your analysis.
Rising/falling wedge, just as the name suggests, is an ascending/descending type of correction where the price is getting squeezed into a “wedge”.
As the price gets narrower and narrower, there's a higher probability of the price to “reverse” from the wedge.
Now about entries, certainly many traders have their own method of entering, so I will share my point of view and the way how I like to enter them.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :)
Thank you
Risk Management: 3 different entries on how to enter the impulsive phrase of price action
Multi-time frame analysis
Identify a correction for the next impulse move in price action analysis
Continuation and Reversal Correction
Continuation Bull/Bear Flag
Parallel Channel (Horizontal, Ascending, Descending)
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Reversal Double Top/Bottom
Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern
Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
Continuation/Reversal Expanding Structure/Pattern
Continuation & Reversal Correction in price action structures
In-depth look at Continuation & Reversal Correction in price action structures/patterns
Hi everyone:
Today I want to revisit the fundamental aspect of trading impulsive and corrective phases in Price Action Analysis.
As you all know I focus on multi-time frame analysis and forecasting/anticipating the next impulsive move in the market.
To me, the most important part of identifying the next impulsive phase of the market, is to understand how correction works.
An impulse phase usually happens after a correction has finished correcting, so the key is to identify and understand how a corrections structure will complete so we anticipate the next impulsive move.
You may have seen my videos on this topic, but today I will go more in detail on this, and explain the 2 types of correctional structure the market can create.
The market can only be in 2 phases, impulsive phrase or corrective phrase.
In addition, the corrective phrase can only be continuation, or reversal.
So to fully have an edge in the market, is to understand what the correctional structure the price is currently making,
whether a continuation/reversal, then forecast the possible price outlook, and go down to the lower time frames for possible entries.
Now, it's important to understand that different traders/strategies/styles will call these patterns/structures in varies names.
What they are called or identify isn't important, but the important aspect is to understand whether they are continuation, or they are reversal.
In addition, simply seeing price action structures/patterns by itself, is not a good enough entry criteria for me.
You want to combine multi- time frame analysis, top-down approach, and with multiples of these price actions all happening so it adds extra confluence for you to enter a particular trade.
Seeing a H and S pattern, on a 5 minute chart, without considering the overall HTF and other factors, will not be a consistent move in the long run.
Continuation Correctional Structure/Pattern
Bullish/Bearish Flag
Bullish/Bearish Pennant
Parallel Channel
Reversal Correctional Structure/Pattern
Ascending/Descending Channel
Rising/Falling Wedge
Double Top/Bottom
Head & Shoulder Pattern/Inverse H and S
“M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
I will forward all the price action structures/patterns videos I have made in the past to help you understand each of the structures more.
Impulse VS Correction
Multi-time frame analysis
Identify a correction for the next impulse move in price action analysis
Continuation Bull/Bear Flag
Parallel Channel (Horizontal, Ascending, Descending)
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Reversal Double Top/Bottom
Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern
Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
Continuation/Reversal Expanding Structure/Pattern
Any questions, comments or feedback please let me know. :)
Thank you
Jojo
Filter opportunities if multiple setups are presenting entries
Risk Management: How to filter trading opportunities if multiple setups of the same currency pairs are presenting entries.
Hello everyone:
Today let’s take a look at how to filter trades if multiple opportunities shape up on the same currency pairs.
It's in our best interest to understand risk management. If there are trade setups shaping up for the JPY pairs for example, it's a good practice to choose the best ones to enter rather than most of them.
When the JPY gets strength or weakness, most of the JPY pairs will move together impulsively, so it's susaintable to filter out all the potential opportunities, and choose the best 1-2 pairs.
Taking multiple positions on different pairs of the same currency may potentially put your trading account at a greater risk.
Sure, on short term samples and examples, traders may find taking more positions can earn extra profits, but long term sustainability wise, it's not ideal to open up so many positions of the same currency.
When traders simultaneously take multiple losses, especially due to correlations, this usually “tilts” the traders, and all sorts of trading psychology effects happen.
They may go on to revenge trade, over trade and over leveraged to “win” back the losses they just took. Best to avoid such negative emotions.
When I am filtering out potential opportunities, few key areas I will focus on when I choose between multiple pairs:
Multi-Time Frame Analysis: Where is the price currently at, and is it in the beginning of the impulse phase on the HTF, or is it closer to the end ?
Risk:Reward: 3:1 RR or higher. Can I comfortably enter with proper Risk:Reward ? or is the price already approaching a previous swing lows/highs ? Which pairs may yield the best reward potentially ?
Price Action Development: Are we getting the confirmation price action structures/patterns on the lower time frames for entries ? Is there a better, more clear price development between the currency pairs ?
Compare the currency pairs with each other, and identify the best 1-2 pairs that fit all the above criteria. Then simply look to set your stop entry orders when applicable.
To wrap it up, understand you can always enter or scale in more positions, as the price continues to develop and in your bias favor. As long as our original positions’ SL are at BE or in profits.
This way you will never lose money from the original account, while potentially maximizing your profits.
Any questions, comments, or feedback welcome to let me know.
Below I will list out some of the other educational videos that tie in closely to what we talk about today:
Risk Management 101
Risk Management: 3 different entries on how to enter the impulsive phrase of price action
Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an impulse move in the market
Multi-time frame analysis
Identify a correction in price action analysis
Continuation and Reversal Correction
Thank you :)
Trading - Expectations VS RealityHey Traders,
In this post we will aim to clear some of common misconceptions of trading and how we can help you go further in your trading career by giving you all the tools you need to better understand the market and kill the game.
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1. Trading is easy.
Trading is relatively easy IF you know the rules of the market and use certain analytical techniques. Once you have a full arsenal of technical tools, you can easily understand the market and figure out where it may go next.
2. Market moves in one direction.
That can be true to a certain extent where we have trending markets. However, within that trend there are various types of pullbacks. Once you understand the different market phases, you can make money whether it's a trending or ranging market. Opportunities are endless!
3. Buy when low. Sell when high.
If only things were that straight forward, right? Sometimes the lows aren't really the lows and the highs push higher and higher. This is when you need to understand the different patterns and structure of the market to help you figure out where the best possible place is to buy or sell.
Once we understand the market, we need a trading plan. How do we enter? Where do we enter? Where is the stop loss? This is where having rigid checklist really helps! You can tick things off the list and grade the trade setup from good to bad and then enter accordingly using various entry methods.
It may sound like a lot of but once broken down into little bits, you can learn this EASILY and know exactly how to analyse and enter trades!
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What we will be covering:
- Market structure: Impulse & Corrections
- Using Index charts to correlate your trades (Very important Topic!)
- Drawing a trendline and levels correctly – There’s a hack to it!
- Using Moving Averages Correctly
- Combining higher timeframe & lower timeframe
- Different patterns and how to trade them
- More topics to come!
Comment below on what other topics you would like to see!
I hope this post help clarify some of the misconceptions of trading and the different elements involved.
See the links below for information on how we can help you!
EURCHF - How To Trade This BreakoutEURCHF is within a descending channel of an ascending channel... pretty confusing I know but have a look at the chart and you can see which way price will be heading. What we need to do now is find the best entry which is safe and clean.
From the diagram in the chart, you can see that our entry will only be after the break of the descending channel and after a bullish correction such as a bull flag. We need to make sure that price has the momentum to move up so we will be waiting for a breakout of the bullflag before entering with stops below the correction.
Goodluck and trade safe!