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6 INEVITABLE Stock Market DownturnsIn the world of stock trading, and crypto trading, volatility is as much a part of the landscape. Whether you’re a day trader or a long-term investor you’re bound to undergo different degrees of stock market downturns, drops and crashes. And each level of downturn has its own set of characteristics, challenges, and strategies for recovery. Let’s dive into the nuances of market downturns, so you can navigate these stormy waters with confidence and savvy. DOWNTURN #1: Down -2%: A Ripple of Volatility Think of a -2% drop in the stock market as your morning coffee spilling over a bit—it’s unpleasant but hardly the end of the world. This level of decline is typically seen as a blip of volatility, a common occurrence in the stock markets that often corrects itself in the short term. DOWNTURN #2: Down -5%: The Pullback Perspective When the market drops by 5%, it’s is often referred to as a pullback and, while it might cause a bit of concern. However, if you look at the bigger time frame, you’ll see it might not signify a long-term trend. DOWNTURN #3: Down -10%: Entering Correction Territory A 10% drop is a clear signal that the market is in a correction phase. This is where the uptrend will come to a temporary halt and the market will drop and correct itself. You’ll see moving averages will cross down and the medium term trend will be showing downside. You’ll also most likely look for shorts (sells) and take advantage of the correction. DOWNTURN #4: Down -20%: The Bear Market Looms Now we’re in the territory of the bear market. This is generally characterized by a 20% or more drop. It might be time to look into more defensive stocks or sectors, such as utilities or consumer staples, which tend to be less affected by economic downturns. DOWNTURN #5: Down -50%: The Market Crash Crisis A 50% plunge is the equivalent of a financial earthquake, causing widespread panic and uncertainty. It’s quite rare, but when it happens, it’s all hands on deck. We saw this in the financial crisis. We saw this during the tech bubble. We saw this with the oil crisis. Silver Linings: Even in the darkest times, opportunities can be found. And whenever we’ve had a crash with world markets, they have turned up, made a come-back and moved to all time highs. DOWNTURN #6: Prolonged downside: The Depression This one I don’t have a number for you. Unlike recessions, which are typically shorter and less severe, depressions are rare and can last for several years, causing long-term damage to a country’s economic health. The most famous example is the Great Depression of the 1930s, which started with the stock market crash in 1929 and lasted for about a decade in most countries. During this period, unemployment rates soared, reaching as high as 25% in the United States, while industrial production, prices, and incomes plummeted. Conclusion: Steady as She Goes As I like to say. It’s important to know that the downtrends, downturns and downside will come. We need to be clued up and prepare for these situations. That way we’ll take advantage as traders of what to do. With the right approach, you can not only survive these downturns but emerge stronger and thrive profitably on the other side.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Why Good News Crashes Markets"But the news wasn't that bad, why is the market falling??" When news or economic data hits the wire, markets move. Many traders are left scratching their heads, trying to come up with an explanation for why the market tanks on good news or rallies on bad news. Don't waste your time. It turns out, news is usually just a catalyst that allows momentum traders to profit off of a position they've already established, or lays the groundwork for their next trade. As an example, take the overnight session preceding this morning's PPI print. First, size traders accumulated (bought) under VWAP. Then, they drove the price up around 12am, and proceeded to distribute (sell) for a profit above VWAP. Look at where the majority of volume was transacted, the VPOC. When this moves above VWAP, it tells you distribution may be done. What happens next? Size traders have made their money for the night, and no longer provide a bid. As soon as news or data comes out, they allow price to fall and may even sell into it. And the cycle starts over again, now at an even better (lower) price. Understanding this has helped me immensely; I sincerely hope it helps you too. Questions? Hit me up in the comments.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by gr8fultrading
2
Chinese Real Estate Large Cap IndexThis is an updated version of my previous "Evergrande + others" chart of Chinese real estate. Instead of including some smaller companies with longer price history, this focuses on large market cap companies. I weighted the prices against each other equally by their 42 day average, and then weighted that by the market cap: 1. Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) HKD 268.5 billion -2.06% Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited develops and invests in properties for sale and rent in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and internationally. It...See Company Profile HKD 2. China Overseas Land & Investment (0688) HKD 252.28 billion 24.86% China Overseas Land & Investment Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment, and treasury...See Company Profile HKD 3. China Resources Land (1109) HKD 245.3 billion 4.88% China Resources Land Limited, an investment holding company, invests, develops, manages, and sells properties in the Peoples Republic of China....See Company Profile HKD 4. China Vanke Co. (2202) HKD 235.54 billion -11.14% China Vanke Co., Ltd., a real-estate company, develops and sells properties in the Peoples Republic of China. The company operates through...See Company Profile HKD 5. CK Asset (1113) HKD 202.95 billion 13.53% CK Asset Holdings Limited operates as a property developer in Hong Kong, the Mainland, Singapore, the United Kingdom, continental Europe,...See Company Profile HKD 6. Longfor (0960) HKD 177.07 billion -20.57% Longfor Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in property development, investment, and management businesses in China....See Company Profile HKD 7. Sino Land Co. (0083) HKD 91.07 billion 21.52% Sino Land Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, manages, and trades in properties. It operates through six...See Company Profile HKD 8. Country Garden Co. (2007) HKD 80.22 billion -49.28% Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests, develops, and constructs real estae properties primarily in...See Company Profile HKD 9. Greentown China (3900) HKD 40.51 billion 28.98% Greentown China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and related business in China. It operates...See Company Profile HKD 10. Yuexiu Property Co. (0123) HKD 29.82 billion 40 .17% Yuexiu Property Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, sells, and manages properties primarily in Mainland China and Hong...See Company Profile HKD source: fknol.com (Unfortunately they no longer sort by market cap by default. To view it you'll have to sign up for fknol's terrible website.) Here was the logic I used: 'a' = 42 day price average. 'b' = adjust b based on the market cap. if the market cap is larger, c gets smaller, market cap smaller, c larger. Market....a=42D_AVG.....b=a/Market_Cap_Billions --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0016.......94.14................0.3506 0688.......21.49................0.08518 1109.......35.14................0.1433 2202.......18.51................0.07858 1113.......51.73................0.2549 0960.......37.36................0.211 0083.......0.3542..............0.003889 2007.......5.662................0.07058 3900.......13.34................0.3293 0123.......0.09548............0.003202 (I had to fill in the table with dots so it would show correctly.) Now, for each row, take each market and divide by 'b': 'market1'/b1 + 'market2'/b2 + ... : '0016'/0.3506+'0688'/0.08518+'1109'/0.1433+'2202'/0.07858+'1113'/0.2549+'0960'/0.211+'0083'/0.003889+'2007'/0.07058+'3900'/0.3293+'0123'/0.003202 You can also exclude the second column, skip computing 'b', and instead divide the price by 'a' and you would have a 42 day average price weighted index. Dividing a price by an average would normalize it near 1, weighting each price equally. Does it make sense? Thanks for taking a look! Misc. Analysis: Total valuation, going by the info, is roughly 1623.26 billion HKD , which is ~200 billion USD. This is not an unusually large amount, but the importance of these companies is far beyond their numerical market cap. Chinese citizens and companies purchase properties around the world, so I think this price action goes hand in hand with global real estate, possibly with this index as a leading indicator. A large global surplus of buyers in the last few decades has pushed real estate prices everywhere to unreasonable levels and now there is a deficit of buyers. Any serious bailout will distort prices and at some point it's possible that the price action becomes useless. The CCP owns a piece of every company already so I think this would be the more probable route. Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets!
Editors' picks
0Education
by fringe_chartist
11
Bitcoin - For Trading Not for InvestingWhen Bitcoin was trading at around 60,000 level in late 2021 and before that year, whenever friends, acquaintance and participants asked my opinion about investing into cryptocurrency, immediately I knew they may not know much about cryptocurrency. To clarify, I am not an expert in cryptocurrency, but I know its intrinsic value could not be calculated then and even today, therefore it is an instrument not for investing but for trading. Let me elaborate, as long as we cannot define its intrinsic value to any so-call an asset, it is not an asset, but an instrument for trading. When we get into trading, meaning, we have to acknowledge the getting in and out, out also represent to exit the market with either a profit or a loss, it is part of the deal in trading – we have to be quick when we make a wrong decision. However, if you position yourself as an investor in crypto, you will either always perceive it will break new high or hope that it will someday go back to its former glory. Throughout the whole tutorial, I will do a recap on how I have spotted this top here in November 2021. I have done this in another personal forum I have back then. I will go through that and it may seem like a hindsight view, but I will apply the same strategy to the current market using just trendline and divergence. Bitcoin Futures Minimum Tick: $5.00 = US$25 or $1.00 = US$5 Contract Value: 20,000 x US$5 = US$100,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME:BTC1!Education
by konhow
2
The 5 Crashes That Shook The Markets.A very brief look at 5 of the most significant market crashes to date, using the Dow Jones Index. Content taken from various online sources. Great Crash 1929 Many factors likely contributed to the collapse of the stock market. Among the more prominent causes were the period of rampant speculation (those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their investment, they also owed money to the entities that had granted the loans for the stock purchases), tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve, the proliferation of holding companies and investment trusts (which tended to create debt), a multitude of large bank loans that could not be liquidated, and an economic recession that had begun earlier in the summer. During the mid- to late 1920s, the stock market in the United States underwent rapid expansion. It continued for the first six months following President Herbert Hoover’s inauguration in January 1929. The prices of stocks soared to fantastic heights in the great “Hoover bull market,” and the public, from banking and industrial magnates to chauffeurs and cooks, rushed to brokers to invest their liquid assets or their savings in securities, which they could sell at a profit. Billions of dollars were drawn from the banks into Wall Street for brokers’ loans to carry margin accounts. The stock market stubbornly kept on climbing. That is, until October 1929, when it all came tumbling down. Catching on to the market's overheated situation, seasoned investors began "taking profits" in the autumn of 1929. Share prices started to stutter. They first crash on Oct. 24, 1929, markets opened 11% lower than the previous day. After this "Black Thursday," they rallied briefly. But prices fell again the following Monday. Many investors couldn't make their margin calls. Wholesale panic set in, leading to more selling. On "Black Tuesday," Oct. 29, investors unloaded millions of shares — and kept on unloading. There were literally no buyers. The rapid decline in U.S. stocks contributed to the Great Depression of the 1930s. The Great Depression lasted approximately 10 years and affected both industrialized and non industrialized countries in many parts of the world. When Franklin D. Roosevelt became President in 1933, he almost immediately started pushing through Congress a series of programs and projects called the New Deal. How much the New Deal actually alleviated the depression is a matter of some debate — throughout the decade, production remained low and unemployment high. But the New Deal did more than attempt to stabilize the economy, provide relief to jobless Americans and create previously unheard of safety net programs, as well as regulate the private sector. It also reshaped the role of government, with programs that are now part of the fabric of American society. Black Monday 1987 Many market analysts theorize that the Black Monday crash of 1987 was largely driven simply by a strong bull market that was overdue for a major correction. 1987 marked the fifth year of a major bull market that had not experienced a single major corrective retracement of prices since its inception in 1982. Stock prices had more than tripled in value in the previous four and a half years, rising by 44% in 1987 alone, prior to the Black Monday crash. The other culprit pinpointed as contributing to the severe crash was computerized trading. Computer, or “program trading,” was still relatively new to the markets in the mid-1980s. The use of computers enabled brokers to place larger orders and implement trades more quickly. In addition, the software programs developed by banks, brokerages, and other firms were set to automatically execute stop-loss orders, selling out positions, if stocks dropped by a certain percentage. On Black Monday, the computerized trading systems created a domino effect, continually accelerating the pace of selling as the market dropped, thus causing it to drop even further. The avalanche of selling that was triggered by the initial losses resulted in stock prices dropping even further, which in turn triggered more rounds of computer-driven selling. A third factor in the crash was “portfolio insurance,” which, like computerized trading, was a relatively new phenomenon at the time. Portfolio insurance involved large institutional investors partially hedging their stock portfolios by taking short positions in S&P 500 futures. The portfolio insurance strategies were designed to automatically increase their short futures positions if there was a significant decline in stock prices. On Black Monday, the practice triggered the same domino effect as the computerized trading programs. As stock prices declined, large investors sold short more S&P 500 futures contracts. The downward pressure in the futures market put additional selling pressure on the stock market. In short, the stock market dropped, which caused increased short selling in the futures market, which caused more investors to sell stocks, which caused more investors to short sell stock futures. A key consequence of the Black Monday crash was the development and implementation of “circuit breakers.” In the aftermath of the 1987 crash, stock exchanges worldwide implemented “circuit breakers” that temporarily halt trading when major stock indices decline by a specified percentage. For example, as of 2019, if the S&P 500 Index falls by more than 7% from the previous day’s closing price, it trips the first circuit breaker, which halts all stock trading for 15 minutes. The second circuit breaker is triggered if there is a 13% drop in the index from the previous close, and if the third circuit breaker level is triggered – by a 20% decline – then trading is halted for the remainder of the day. The purpose of the circuit breaker system is to try to avoid a market panic where investors just start recklessly selling out all their holdings. It’s widely believed that such a general panic is to blame for much of the severity of the Black Monday crash. The temporary halts in trading that occur under the circuit breaker system are designed to give investors a space to catch their breath and, hopefully, take the time to make rational trading decisions, thereby avoiding a blind panic of stock selling. The Federal Reserve responded to the crash in four distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity, as needed, “to support the economic and financial system”; (2) providing support to the Treasury securities market by injecting in-high-demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements; (3) allowing the federal funds rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0% and below; and (4) intervening directly to allow the rescue of the largest options clearing firm in Chicago. Dotcom Bubble 2000 The dotcom crash was triggered by the rise and fall of technology stocks. The growth of the Internet created a buzz among investors, who were quick to pour money into start-up companies. These companies were able to raise enough money to go public without a business plan, product, or track record of profits. These companies quickly ran through their cash, which caused them to go under. The Internet bubble, grew out of a combination of the presence of speculative or fad-based investing, the abundance of venture capital funding for start-ups, and the failure of dotcoms to turn a profit. Investors poured money into Internet start-ups during the 1990s hoping they would one day become profitable. Many investors and venture capitalists abandoned a cautious approach for fear of not being able to cash in on the growing use of the Internet. With capital markets throwing money at the sector, start-ups were in a race to quickly get big. Companies without any proprietary technology abandoned fiscal responsibility. They spent a fortune on marketing to establish brands that would set them apart from the competition. Some start-ups spent as much as 90% of their budget on advertising. Record amounts of capital started flowing into the Nasdaq in 1997. By 1999, 39% of all venture capital investments were going to Internet companies. That year, most of the 457 initial public offerings (IPOs) were related to Internet companies, followed by 91 in the first quarter of 2000 alone. The high-water mark was the AOL Time Warner megamerger in January 2000, which became the biggest merger failure in history. As investment capital began to dry up, so did the lifeblood of cash-strapped dotcom companies. Dotcom companies that reached market capitalizations in the hundreds of millions of dollars became worthless within a matter of months. By the end of 2001, a majority of publicly-traded dotcom companies folded, and trillions of dollars of investment capital evaporated. The bubble ultimately burst, leaving many investors facing steep losses and several Internet companies going bust. Companies that famously survived the bubble include Amazon, eBay, and Priceline. The US government would date the start of the dot-com recession as beginning in March 2001. And by the time of the economic shock from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, there was no longer any doubt. In that tragic month of September, for the first time in 26 years, not a single IPO came to market. The dot-com era was over. Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 The crisis, often referred to as “The Great Recession,” didn’t happen overnight. There were many factors present leading up to the crisis, and their effects linger to this day. The foundation of the global financial crisis was built on the back of the housing market bubble that began to form in 2007. Banks and lending institutions offered low interest rates on mortgages and encouraged many homeowners to take out loans that they couldn’t afford. With all the mortgages flooding in, lenders created new financial instruments called mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which were essentially mortgages bundled together that could then be sold as securities with minimal risk load due to the fact that they were backed by credit default swaps (CDS). Lenders could then easily pass along the mortgages – and all the risk. Outdated regulations that weren’t rigorously enforced allowed lenders to get sloppy with underwriting, meaning the actual value of the securities couldn’t be established or guaranteed. Banks began to lend recklessly to families and individuals without true means to follow through on the mortgages they’d been granted. Such high-risk (subprime) loans were then inevitably bundled together and passed down the line. As the subprime mortgage bundles grew in number to an overwhelming degree, with a large percentage moving into default, lending institutions began to face financial difficulties. It led to the dismal financial conditions around the world during the 2008-2009 period and continued for years to come. Financial stresses peaked following the failure of the US financial firm Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Together with the failure or near failure of a range of other financial firms around that time, this triggered a panic in financial markets globally. Many who took out subprime mortgages eventually defaulted. When they could not pay, financial institutions took major hits. The government, however, stepped in to bail out banks. The housing market was deeply impacted by the crisis. Evictions and foreclosures began within months. The stock market, in response, began to plummet and major businesses worldwide began to fail, losing millions. This, of course, resulted in widespread layoffs and extended periods of unemployment worldwide. Declining credit availability and failing confidence in financial stability led to fewer and more cautious investments, and international trade slowed to a crawl. Eventually, the United States responded to the crisis by passing the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which used an expansionary monetary policy, facilitated bank bailouts and mergers, and worked towards stimulating economic growth. Covid Crash 2020 The 2020 crash occurred because investors were worried about the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. The uncertainty over the danger of the virus, plus the shuttering of many businesses and industries as states implemented shutdown orders, damaged many sectors of the economy. Investors predicted that workers would be laid off, resulting in high unemployment and decreased purchasing power. On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the disease a pandemic. The organization was concerned that government leaders weren't doing enough to stop the rapidly spreading virus. Investors had also been jittery ever since President Donald Trump launched trade wars with China and other countries. Under both the Trump and Biden administrations, the federal government passed multiple bills to stimulate the economy. These included help directed at specific sectors, cash payments to taxpayers, increases in unemployment insurance, and rental assistance. These measures further soothed investors, leading to additional gains in the stock market. Investors were also encouraged by the development and distribution of multiple COVID-19 vaccines, which began under the Trump administration. The driving forces behind the stock market crash of 2020 were unprecedented. However, investor confidence remained high, propelled by a combination of federal stimulus and vaccine development.
TVC:DJIEducation
by bL1TZZ
9
Cloudflare teaching moment. Meteoric rise = catastrophic dump.Hi everyone, Today I would like to share a piece of knowledge on parabolic growth and poor market structures. Let us take a look at NYSE:NET Cloudflare stock. This was an attractive buy back in 2020. As always, nobody saw that until everyone started screaming about this stock on Twitter. I saw an opportunity in investing into Cloudflare later in 2021 for a long-term. I did not know what's coming. At the beginning of October, after a decent sell-off something strange began happening. Stock rose TWELVE days in a row. And not just stayed barely positive, it gained insane 68% in price during this short period. Right there I knew this was not sustainable and price won't last up there for long. Yes, I sold at 175 . Yes, I missed a run up to 220 . But, really, did I? Noone can predict the top. But you can predict the inevitable downfall. The Lesson. Look at the chart. You see the price in the first box going parabolicly up. The price took off to the moon and was hovering up in the air. Thus, poor structure has been created. There is no single support level from 137 to 182 . The Market hates poor weak structures and it tends to repair them sooner or later. That is exactly what happened with Cloudflare stock. Price has been flushed from 204 down to 123 as fast as it flew up there back in October. You can see that in the second box. The structure has been repaired. A lot of data points were created in the process, which will help with the analysis in the future. This might be a rebirth of Cloudflare stock constituting healthy future movement. Trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NYSE:NETEducation
by AyBe_Invest
2
Which currency pairs benefited from stocks crash 2020With my previous post with the 2007-2008 theme making it to the front page, I decided to make another with a similar topic. A stock market crash causes all markets to get volatile and moving. This is why a currency trader will keep an eye on other asset classes to keep track of where money is going or where it was and has left. Since I don't think the next crisis is far off, I decided to study some of the historical patterns that have been occurring in times like that. I also improved my correlation mandate indicator to show overall correlation with the market, fixed some bugs and made it more clear. Guide: a candle correlating to the main chart = purple, a candle anti-correlating to the main chart = yellow, the correlation length is based on the latest 300 bars, not the crash back then First up, Dollar Index, JPY Index, Euro Futures (this means it is not an index) Japanese Yen did exceptionally well throughout the crash's duration - likely due to being considered to be an alternative-to-dollar safe-haven currency. Euro Futures performed great in the beginning but did reverse at the same time the US Dollar did. The US Dollar started off poorly but reversed at the same time Euro Futures did (could this have signified something?) Next: remaining majors - AUD Futures, GBP Futures, CAD Futures, and CHF Futures. NZD is absent because I can't find an appropriate index/futures All of them seem to have woken up later in March when the crash was two weeks in motion and all of them went down after. GBP with Brexit happening and AUD with CAD being a "commodity currencies" it makes sense they go down when the market switches to risk-off mode. Swiss Franc rather followed a path similar to the EUR. Being highly backed by gold, this should have been expected (again, could money leaving Franc and Euro and going somewhere else signify a possible reversal on stocks here?) This analysis would be incomplete if I didn't list interest rate changes over March 2020, although I did want to focus purely on the money flow & show the charts. NZD : 1 -> (16.3.20) 0.25 GBP : 0.75 -> (11.3.20) 0.25 -> (19.3.20) 0.1 USD : 1.75 -> (3.3.20) 1.25 -> (15.3.20) 0.25 CAD : 1.75 -> (3.4.20) 1.25 -> (13.3.20) 0.75 -> (27.3.20) 0.25 AUD : 0.75 -> (3.3.20) 0.5 -> (19.3.20) 0.25 -> (11.3.20) 0.1 And on this note, I will leave any interpretation to you. Good luck!
SP:SPXEducation
by OrcChieftain
BTC/USD Binance.US - This is why I do not use stop losses.. I must start by saying that I believe Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investing offers the greatest opportunity for the common man to build wealth to have ever existed in the history of the world. Yet, it is still an endeavor that must be entered into cautiously and with research if one is to be successful. The Daily Chart for BTC/USD on (the pathetic excuse of an exchange) Binance.US, serves as a teachable moment that should not be ignored. This chart demonstrates that if you cannot go to sleep peacefully without having a stop loss in place then you may need to reconsider being in this game. The traditional methods of trading securities that were used in the regulated stock markets of the world and which subsequently made a lot of the famous traders of old very rich, predated high frequency trading and algorithmic trading bots on these mostly unregulated cryptocurrency exchanges. Yet, these outdated methods are currently being peddled and taught by the get-rich-trading-crypto-gurus today as the "secrets to crypto trading profits", despite this being 20th century methods that will cause you to lose your shirt if adhered to when trading crypto. Any endeavor to read and learn about crypto trading will, almost without fail, lead to a regurgitated list of the same old trading clichés. One such example: the so-called number one rule of trading. Always use a stop loss. The number one rule of successful trading is undoubtedly to limit your losses. This may be true, but if you are doing that with a stop loss on an exchange then you are asking to be robbed. Yes, you have to know when to cut your losses and move on, but unfortunately, because of the nature of swimming these dangerous financial waters, the sharks in the crypto space will eat your lunch, steal your crypto at bargain prices and laugh as you weep over what could've been. The order books are open. Anybody with a desire to do so can launch a trading "bot" using an API on most any crypto exchange. If that person or entity happens to have enough capital to clear the buy or sell side of the order books of an exchange, then they are free to do so. Once this is done, your crypto is gone at a bargain price with the classic stop loss shake out. Which is why if I cannot hold it without a stop loss, then I don't need it. If a drop in price doesn't present an opportunity for me to buy more, then I don't need it. If I'm not confident that it will be around in 2-5 years from now, then I don't need it. To limit losses, set a price alert on Tradingview, CoinGecko, or your exchange watchlist. If you are afraid it will drop too much before you can act on it, or if it suffers from a lack of volume and thus has a lack of liquidity, then perhaps it's best to HODL or leave it be. If you don't know what any of this means, then that could be a sign that you may need to do a little more due diligence.
BEducation
by John_E_Crypto
Don't Miss the Stock Market Boom By Fearing the Crash.It is absolutely normal to worry about the next stock market crash. You probably have a portion of your life savings wrapped up in your retirement fund, which is tied to the success of the stock market. Should You Fear The Next Crash? Except for the perma-bears out there, no one loves a stock market crash. But the fact is Governments, Central Banks and Economists are getting better at responding to existential financial disasters. The recovery from the Corona crash has been nothing short of impressive. This crash was the most violent and volatile of all crashes, yet has been handled very well. It had the potential to be as big as 2000 and 2008, yet the response curbed the brunt of the disaster. How Long Until Stock Markets Recover From A Crash? If we analyze the 6 major US stock market crashes of the last 100 years, we see that the average peak loss was 57%. Also, the average duration of the recovery is 9.8 years. This can be somewhat misleading, though. The 1929 crash was exceptional in its size and duration. Additionally, governments and central banks have realized that they can manage inflation and stimulate the economy to speed economic and stock market crash recovery. Over the last 20 years, we have had 3 major crashes, with an average loss of 62%, but with an average recovery time of 7 years. the last 2 crashes lasted only 5 years and under 1 year. The History Of Crashes Year Loss Years Recovery 1929 -89% 23 1973 -46% 10 1987 -35% 2 2000 -83% 16 2008 -54% 5 2020 -38% 1 Average -57% 9.8 Will There Be Another Crash? Yes, there will be another crash, probably due to a needed correction of the current boom we are in. What Will Cause the Next Crash? Historically speaking, my analysis shows that the most common causes of crashes are: - Equity Bubbles (1929,1987,2000) - Easy Access to Credit (1929,1987,2000) - Poor Institutional Risk Management (1929,1987,2000,2008) - Asset Bubbles (2008) Right now we are experiencing an Equity Bubble, Asset Bubble (Property), and Easy Access to Credit. The Crypto Bubble is also a major risk. When Will Be the Next Crash? My in-depth business cycle analysis indicates a high probability of a correction in 2022. This also coincides with potential increases in interest rates to begin cooling off the current boom. Don't Be Crippled By Fear. The markets are booming, now is not the time to be crippled by fear. If you miss out on these gains in the good times, what do you have to look forward to in the bad times? Crashes do not happen overnight, they usually take 2 to 3 years to fully hit bottom, so you will have time to react. Just enjoy the ride for now.
TVC:DJIEducation
by liberatedstocktrader
8
STOCK MARKET CRASH, MARKET CORRECTIONS, BEAR MARKETSSo alot of terms being throw around about a Market Crash. Some people saying the market needs a correction, and others saying we have entered a bear market. They are not the same so what do each one of these look like? A Stock Market Crash This is usually caused by some economic damning event. Anything that would scare an investor into thinking our country and market are in real danger. This will usually cause a sharp drop in price, indicating fear is driving the market. Market Correction Usually multiple sharp drops and bounces in the nominal price of the company, and can be cause by inflation fears as they are now. This allows the market to regain its footing at a less overvalued level. Generally when playing the corrections the price will be trading within a channel and continue to bounce and drop until investors sentiment changes Bear Market A bear market is when investor sentiment is pessimistic across the market and we can see up to a 20 percent pull back from recent highs. Described as more of a slow declined or controlled pullback. Just thought I would post a quick elaboration on each. There are so many factors that can cause both but all generally center around these rules.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by SimpleStacks
1
VIX always the best forecaster of the stock market!Hi friends! As we all know, each market crash is accompanied by an increase in its volatility. Here's an example of how a low VIX perfectly predicted today's correction. Therefore, it is always advisable to have the VIX on our watch list to be able to do a preventive monitoring of the market. When we see low volatility, we must close positions or be very cautious. Please give me your like, your comments and follow me, you can see my other ideas. Good luck!!!
FOREXCOM:NAS100Education
by iaorozco
1
HYPOTHETICAL: BITCOIN - $30,000 BY 2024?The volatility of Bitcoin on anything less than a 4H chart, hides its path of momentum. On this monthly chart I show what I see. Move chart to left to see more. The path is more probably up in the long term based on monthly momentum. In my hypothetical $30,000 is possible - but I make no predictions. I previously made other speculations. If we hit a 1929-type depression in the next few years - and fiat becomes meaningless as in 1929, what will we use to exchange value? I think it could be Bitcoin - or possibly some other crypto(s). I can't say it won't be Ethereum. Some argue that 1929 is gone and the scenario would never happen again. I'm not so sure. When I look at the factors that contributed to 1929, I'm seeing them right now as the COVID-crisis evolves. This post does not mean that you should rush out and purchase or invest in Bitcoin or cryptos. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Is the Stock Market going to CRASH?!?!Is the stock market going to crash?!?! I reckon about 50 people a week ask me this question! The reality is that we have never experienced this kind of crash before, we have never fought COVID before and we are seeing a huge amount of stimulus from our governments. Even the most experienced traders and investors are struggling to predict the market. Here is what I know: • It's a crazy time, with things changing daily • The market has recovered well since the crash, but it's not yet "technically safe" • We are going through a digital evolution, meaning that things are different. Business is different. Life is different. • Companies are announcing loss in sales and increase in profits at the same time. Profit is what matters. • We are never going to see "work" in the same way again. • There is a huge amount of misinformation in the media • There is an even bigger amount of misinformation coming from the public (the new media - how ironic) • The stock market responds to supply and demand. You might think a stock is overpriced (and it may be), but if another person is willing to pay that price, is it 'overpriced', or just... 'priced'? • A company is not it's stock price. Read this 3 times. • An index is not a company. Read this 3 times. The world is changing and evolving. Here is my suggestion to investors and traders: Don't try to predict. Instead get really good at adapting and even better at reacting. Use technology to your benefit. Computers are better than us at processing things, we are better at strategy. Manage your risk every second of every day. Never stop doing what you love in he trading and investing world, instead, proceed with caution and have an exit strategy. Technicals: The below chart is how I personally see the ASX right now. We are looking very bullish technically, with a huge ascending triangle on top of a trip wire on the daily. We also have an ascending triangle on the 4hr. We are pressing against resistance right now. A push through could see us making new recent highs and moving up a couple of hundred points. If we do, be careful as we are going to hit a major supply zone, which could trigger a reversal. A push through this second level of resistance could see the market heading in a longer term positive direction. Marked on chart. Another thing to note, we are right on the 61.8 Fibs, a prime position for a reversal to occur. Does this mean the market is going up? No it doesn't, but it looks like it wants to. The market is a flaky, fickle, 2-faced, sadistic creature. Remember what you are dealing with. Be careful, its not your friend and it doesn't care about you. Does this make you feel bad? Why? Now you know what you are dealing with, you can milk it for everything it's worth. Your role as a trader is to take money from the market and put it in your pocket. Don't kid yourself, this was never a friendship. How I read it: It could easily go either way right now. Risk management is key. Invest in sectors that stand to benefit whether the crash happens or not. Read the following aloud to yourself: • Risk management is my number 1 priority • I'm going to do my own research and make my own choices • My friends and family aren't qualified to give me financial advice If you prioritise risk, you minimise loss. Its really that simple. Here's the thing, we just don't know what will happen. No one does. All the time you spend searching for someone to give you that answer could have been spent finding your next major trade. Spend it wisely. A couple of things to be aware of: - Australia follows the US. Elections are coming soon in November. - Jobkeeper is allowing companies to keep operating, it's potentially ending next March. - All business is changing. What you know today may not apply tomorrow. With that being said, I wish everyone an amazing week trading and investing! • Learn • Manage Risk • Adapt • Remove the ego • DYOR • Invest in what you know • Go your own way Have a great week 🚀
Editors' picks
ASX:XJOEducation
by glennleese
43
They have money to burn - you do NOT!FED-backed pumping or rather re-pumping of the popped bubble, has taken the DJI to unexpected levels. I think they're making the same mistake all over again. Have a look. No predictions. I don't do predictions. Tough. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
Second wave or no wave - the choice is yours! Just have a look. I present a case for probability south on the DJI (Wall Street). Reality is catching up. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
Don't bet against Elon!A little update/correction, just so You understand what I thought and what I said last year. Bottom line: Elon Musk MUST be right about this. As he is smarter then You, and after all, Tesla is His project, not Yours. First of all, He stated _last year_ that we can expect a 50% growth / year. Represented here by the thick magenta line. (Side note: That was before the virus thing.) Secondly he even tweeted that "price is too high" recently, hence he knows math a little better than the FOMO retail investors (the majority) who jumped in around $750 :D and still wondering what happened and why aren't we at $2000 by now? So just HODL! :D Oh dear! If someone, I'm an Elon fan/follower. Any other real Tesla fans here? I don't see many, as if there were, they would listen to HIM. Try to calculate this difficult math problem :D for me please: $350 + 50% each year from 2019 - 2024. (My previous idea was from $420 -I'm biased). But naaaa, You guys always know better, and hope for more and more and get rich quick... until one day you'll get disappointed and drop out and/or loose. Why is that? Just notice the blue dotted line. That is also a possibility. A good investment from $750 to $751 in about one year, right? That was Your plan? :D Please! At the end of the day (I mean the year), Elon is gonna be right and not You . Either way, if there is high volatility or if there isn't. The former case is the green and red arrows, later case is the blue dotted arrow. OK, just listen to Dave Lee then, (smart, high IQ investor, big Tesla bull I know). He predicts TSLA around $2000 in 2024 (BTW, I predicted $2600-$3000 for 2024, but don't listen to me, I'm a biased delusional fanboy). You know, that is a year 2024, anyone able to count to 4 (years ahead) or just blindly repeats some phrases heard on TV/youtube without context and any real time frames understood? Long story short? Tesla is a great car, a great company, and no, You are NOT gonna get rich fast! Mark my words.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by janfoux
Back to the past - 2008 - is this our future?In this educational post, I look back to 2008 to get a rough idea what may be in store for us in 2020. This is a cautious exploration because what happened in 2008 was very very different to what's happening today (though there are many similarities). This post does not exclude the possibility that the US and other stock markets may recover totally and head to the moon. Possibility is not the same as probability. How? It's possible that the sun may rise in the West tomorrow morning, but that is highly improbable. Technical analysis is a good thing, but relies totally on historical price movements. Ultimately technical analysis is not immune to the real-world issues that affect price. The world is moving into a 50-75 year cycle for depressions - which is very different to the 10 year cycle for recessions. Do NOT be influenced to make trading decisions based on this post. You have been told.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker