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Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 50 - EURJPY - (21st June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing EURJPY, starting from the 2-Month chart. If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
Education
by Road_2_Funded
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 10 - EURJPY - (31st May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing EURJPY, starting from the 6-Month chart. - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 8 - EURUSD - (29th May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing EURUSD, starting from the Monthly chart. - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
2
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series] When to trade for best bang for $$?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Okay, let's get started on today's topic. Knowing when to trade and when NOT to trade is very important. This is the "timing" element which is also a crucial part of trading. And, this is especially important if you are looking to trade on a lower timeframe! Understanding the different trading sessions in the forex market and identifying the best times and days to trade can significantly improve trading success. Here's a breakdown of the major forex trading sessions and their characteristics: Asian Session (Tokyo/Singapore/Hong Kong): The Asian session begins with the opening of the Tokyo market, though the AUD and NZD starts trading earlier than it. It's known for lower volatility compared to other sessions, with currency pairs like USD/JPY and AUD/USD often experiencing increased activity.At times, if there's a important news release such as FED interest rate release or Non- farm payroll on a Friday. The preceding Asian Session could have "spill over" activity and increased in volatility in the FX market. European Session (London): The European session, centered around London, is considered the most active session (besides the US). It often sees high liquidity and volatility, making it ideal for day traders. Major currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP typically exhibit significant movements during this session. 3. North American Session (New York): The North American session overlaps with the end of the European session, creating a period of increased activity. Day traders loved the volatility during this period of time, more over key news releases could be catalyst for further volatility. It's characterized by liquidity from both European and American traders. Currency pairs involving the USD, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD, are particularly active. 4. Best Times to Trade: To be specific, the best times to trade forex are typically during the overlap of multiple trading sessions when liquidity and volatility are highest. This occurs during the overlap of the European and North American sessions, known as the "London-New York" overlap, which occurs from 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST. Another optimal period is during the overlap of the Asian and European sessions. Best Days to Trade While forex markets are open 24 hours a day, five days a week, certain days tend to offer more trading opportunities. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are generally considered the best days to trade, as they typically see higher volatility and more significant price movements compared to Mondays and Fridays. By understanding the characteristics of each trading session and identifying the optimal times and days to trade, you can enhance your trading strategies and capitalize on the most favorable market conditions. Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Education
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]All you need for Order types in FX Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Understanding the various order types in forex trading is essential for navigating the market efficiently and executing trades effectively. Here's a concise overview of some common order types: 1. Market Order: This order is executed immediately at the current market price. It is used when a trader wants to enter or exit a trade quickly. More of for Day Trading - A trader might use market orders to quickly enter and exit positions based on real-time news events or technical signals. Live example > A trader sees a positive European's news release and expects a quick upward move in the EUR/USD pair. They use a market order to buy EUR/USD at the current price of 1.1950, aiming to sell it later in the day at a higher price based on the expected market reaction. 2. Limit Order: A limit order allows traders to specify the price at which they want to enter or exit a trade. It's used to buy below the current market price or sell above it, ensuring entry or exit at a specific price level or better. For example for Swing Trading - A trader might place a buy limit order at a support level, expecting the price to bounce back up, or a sell limit order at a resistance level, expecting the price to fall. Live Example > A trader identifies strong support for USD/JPY at 110.50 and places a buy limit order at this price, expecting the price to rebound. When the market price dips to 110.50, the order is executed, and the trader aims to sell at 111.50. 3. Stop Order(Stop-Loss Order): A stop order becomes a market order once a specified price level is reached. It's commonly used to limit losses or protect profits by triggering a trade when the market moves in a certain direction. This, in my opinion should be used as Risk Management for all traders - A trader sets a stop-loss order below the entry price for a long position or above the entry price for a short position to limit potential losses if the market moves against their position. Live Example > A trader buys GBP/USD at 1.3500, anticipating a rise. To protect against unexpected drops, they place a stop-loss order at 1.3450. If the price falls to 1.3450, the order executes, limiting the trader's loss to 50 pips. 4. Stop-Limit Order: A stop-limit order combines features of both stop and limit orders. It triggers a limit order to buy or sell at a specified price once the stop price is reached, offering more control over entry and exit prices. More of for Advanced Trading - A trader might use a stop-limit order to ensure they enter a position only if the price reaches a certain level but still want to control the maximum price they are willing to pay. Live Example: A trader wants to buy EUR/GBP only if it breaks above 0.8500 but not pay more than 0.8520. They place a stop-limit order with a stop price of 0.8500 and a limit price of 0.8520. If the price hits 0.8500, the order becomes a limit order, executing only if the price is 0.8520 or lower. 5. Trailing Stop Order: A trailing stop order is a dynamic stop-loss order that adjusts automatically as the market price moves in the trader's favor. It helps lock in profits while allowing for potential further gains. For Trend Following - A trader might use a trailing stop order to lock in profits as the price moves in their favor, allowing the stop price to trail the market price and protect gains if the market reverses. A trader buys USD/CAD at 1.3000 and sets a trailing stop order with a 50-pip trail. As the price rises to 1.3100, the trailing stop adjusts to 1.3050. If the price then falls to 1.3050, the order executes, locking in a 50-pip profit. Hopefully these explanations on the various Trading Orders open you up to more strategies that you can applied in the market for you to trade more efficiently and profitably! Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Education
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Implementing SEASONAL TENDENCIESHi guys, In this video I go through what are "seasonal tendencies", and how you can implement it into your analysis and strategy(ies). Seasonal tendencies in the context of financial markets are basically what the particular market or asset has historically done throughout the years in terms of bullish or bearish movement. For example, in April-May the US Dollar is usually bearish, and from May-June it is usually bullish. This is useful information because it can add confluence to your bias/analysis. However, you do not want to solely use this information as a reason to get into a trade. The data is based on the past, and is not indicative to the present/future and also does not represent how much a market or asset can move because the data is only measured relative to what it has previously done. The best approach is to use this as an additional thumbs up if it coincides with your analysis, and if it does, then it allows you to be a bit more cautious or risk averse. A simple analogy is the weather. If you were planning a holiday to Thailand for a sunny getaway, the best times would be from March to July. Most likely you are not going to book a holiday in November during the monsoon season, unless you actually wanted it to rain every day. However, some years have had very little to no rain during the monsoon season. That being said, you would most likely choose to go during a time that seasonally has hot and sunny weather. This is how you can use seasonal tendencies to add an additional layer to your analysis. I hope that was insightful and gave you some ideas to test if you've never heard of seasonal tendencies. You can implement this both as a technical or fundamental analyst (or both). Til next time, happy trading. - R2F
TVC:DXYEducation
by Road_2_Funded
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series] Various FX involved,Mostly..Hello Traders, here we go again! Let me cover a little bit more on the next topic in this mini series, the various currencies that are involved and a little descriptions about them! Let's begin! In the vast realm of forex trading, understanding the intricacies of currency pairs is fundamental to success. As a Full-time forex trader with years of live experience, I'm here to shed light on the major and minor currency pairs that dominate the market. Major Currency Pairs: The Powerhouses of Forex. Normally most retailers trade these pairs as they offer higher liquidity and therefore tighter spreads. Major currency pairs are the cornerstone of forex trading, encompassing currencies from the world's largest economies. These pairs typically involve the most traded currencies globally and offer high liquidity and stability. Among the major pairs, the most prominent include: 1. EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar): Known as the "fiber," this pair represents two of the world's largest economies, the Eurozone and the United States. It's renowned for its liquidity and tight spreads. 2. USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen): Dubbed the "ninja," , the JPY or the YEN, this pair reflects the economic relationship between the US and Japan, two economic powerhouses with distinct monetary policies. 3. GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar): Often referred to as "cable," this pair reflects the relationship between the UK and the US, and it's influenced by economic data, geopolitical events, e.g. Brexit developments. 4. USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc): Known as the "swissie," this pair is influenced by safe-haven flows, Swiss banking policies, and US economic data. 5. AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar): Termed the "aussie," this pair is closely tied to commodity prices, particularly gold and other precious metals, as Australia is a major exporter of raw materials. 6. USD/CAD (US Dollar/Canadian Dollar): Called the "loonie," this pair is heavily influenced by oil prices, given Canada's status as a major oil exporter. Minor Currency Pairs: Navigating the Market Beyond Majors While major pairs dominate forex trading, minor currency pairs offer unique opportunities that should not be overlooked as well. These pairs involve currencies from smaller or emerging economies and could be less liquid than their major counterparts. Notable minor pairs include: 1. EUR/GBP (Euro/British Pound): This pair reflects the relationship between the Eurozone and the UK, and it's influenced by economic data from both regions. In my opinion, this pair quite frequently range and sometimes it is termed as "mean reverting pair". 2. EUR/JPY (Euro/Japanese Yen): Combining two major currencies, this pair offers opportunities for traders seeking exposure to both the Eurozone and Japan. 9. GBP/JPY (British Pound/Japanese Yen): Known for its volatility, this pair attracts traders looking to capitalize on the economic dynamics between the UK and Japan. It is also one of the top favorite for scalpers. 10. AUD/JPY (Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen): Influenced by commodity prices and risk sentiment, this pair is popular among traders seeking exposure to the Australian and Japanese economies. 3. NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar): Known as the "kiwi," this pair reflects economic developments in New Zealand and global risk sentiment. 4. CAD/JPY (Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen): This pair offers insights into the commodity markets and the economic relationship between Canada and Japan. In conclusion, mastering major and minor currency pairs is essential for navigating the forex market effectively. Major pairs offer stability and liquidity, while minor pairs provide opportunities for some diversification. By understanding the dynamics of each currency pair and staying informed about global economic developments, traders can unlock the full potential of forex trading and achieve profitable outcomes in this dynamic and ever-evolving market. And of course don't forget about your technical analysis! Thank you for your time and hope you have enjoyed the content and if you do so please leave a thumbs up or a comment if you have any suggestions to make this better! Do check out the other links if you missed out on the other parts of this Forex Mini Series i put up for all (FREE)! Signing out! STBB
Education
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
1
Target Reached! EURAUD ReviewPrice bounced perfectly from our confluence support level and reached our target. But how did it happen? Join Desmond as he reviews how we managed to forecast the reversal with such a high degree of accuracy. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits.
Education
by FXCM
Decoding Forex Mysteries: USDCHF & EURGBP Reaction to Rate HikesWelcome to the intriguing world of Forex, where currencies act at their own rhythm, sometimes defying expectations and confounding even the most experienced traders. In this article, we are going to unravel the “mysteries” surrounding the reactions of USDCHF and EURGBP to recent interest rate hikes. We will dive into the realms of market anticipation, monetary policy statements, and the significance of staying ahead in this dynamic landscape. 1. The Resilience of USDCHF As the Swiss National Bank (SNB) raises interest rates from 1.5% to 1.75%, market observers brace for the anticipated downward movement of the USDCHF. However, contrary to expectations, the currency pair displays remarkable resilience. Let's explore the underlying factors: a) Priced-in Expectations: The forex market is renowned for its ability to assimilate information in advance. It is likely that market participants had already factored in the interest rate hike, blunting the immediate impact on USDCHF. Such anticipatory behavior highlights the importance of staying attuned to prevailing sentiment and analyzing market positioning. b) Comparative Interest Rates: Understanding the relative interest rates of different currencies is paramount. If the rate hike in Switzerland was aligned with or lower than market expectations, and other major currencies offered more attractive rates, investors might have favored those currencies, mitigating the downward pressure on USDCHF. c) Monetary Policy Statement Outlook: Monetary policy statements accompanying interest rate decisions provide crucial insights into central banks' future intentions (you can usually watch them live on YouTube 30 minutes after the data release or on Bloomberg type of channels). Since the SNB's statement revealed a cautious and neutral stance, it has tempered the impact of the rate hike on USDCHF. Market participants pay close attention to forward guidance, as it shapes expectations regarding future policy actions and influences currency movements. 2. The Curious Behavior of EURGBP Let us now turn our attention to EURGBP, which failed to sustain a short sentiment following the Bank of England's interest rate hike from 4.5% to 5.00% (versus the expected 4.75%) and left a nasty week. To understand this curious behavior, we delve into the following factors: a) Market Expectations: The forex market is often driven by expectations and anticipatory positioning. If traders had already priced in the interest rate hike, the actual announcement might not have triggered a significant market reaction. Therefore, the lack of sustained short sentiment in EURGBP could be attributed to market participants adjusting their positions in advance. The GBP was up already by 4% within the last month against major currencies, so a big chunk of market was already longing EG for the expected short term recovery (guilty, but we also made a 2.9% profit closure on this). b) Monetary Policy Outlook: Beyond interest rate changes, central banks' monetary policy outlooks play a vital role in shaping currency dynamics. The accompanying statement from the Bank of England, which shed light on their future plans, indicated a more gradual approach to tightening or expressed concerns about economic conditions. Such cues influence market sentiment and limit the downward pressure on EURGBP. In case of UK, this is already not a good look with their inflation rates :/ Now, you may ask: “Investroy, what do we do if fundamentals don’t exhibit the expected economical impact?” Don’t worry, we got you! A Prerequisite for Success In the ever-evolving forex market, staying ahead of the curve is crucial. To navigate the intricacies and maximize opportunities, traders must adopt a proactive approach: a) Monitor Central Bank Communications: Understanding central banks' intentions requires careful analysis of their policy statements, speeches, and press conferences. These sources provide valuable clues about future policy decisions and can guide trading strategies. b) Assess Economic Indicators: Keep a keen eye on economic indicators that impact currency valuations, such as GDP, inflation, and employment data. These indicators provide a foundation for understanding a country's economic health and can influence currency movements. c) Stay Informed of Geopolitical Developments: Geopolitical events, such as trade disputes or political instability, can significantly impact forex markets. Being aware of these developments and their potential consequences on currency movements is crucial for staying ahead. d) Analyze Market Sentiment: Sentiment analysis, gauging the collective psychology of market participants, can offer valuable insights. Monitoring market sentiment through various indicators, such as positioning data and sentiment surveys, helps identify potential shifts and align trading strategies accordingly. e) Embrace Technological Tools: Utilize advanced trading platforms and tools that provide real-time data, customizable charts, and algorithmic trading capabilities. These resources empower traders to analyze market trends, spot patterns, and execute trades swiftly. Bonus) this one is a little subjective, but markets are very cyclic, if something is oversold, but everybody is expecting further bearish move, be sure there is a retracement coming before that happens 😊 Stay safe and enjoy your day!
Editors' picks
Education
by Investroy
23
How FED / ECB Interest rates set trendsWatch how interest rates decisions set trends in EURUSD and Dollar Index impacting the entire forex market. I marked all the previous interest hike decisions by FED and ECB. 2023 EURUSD bullish reversal was triggerred by ECB starting to raise iterest rates (after EUR hit the alarming 1.00 level). EUR might continue bullish until next tow hikes. From what I read ECB does not plan to hike rates for the rest of the year after May meeting (rates will stay at 4), so it is likely to trigger bearish reversal from May. Likelwise, 2020 EUR bullish ride (and dollar weakness) was triggerred by FED lowering interest rates (in March 2020) after COVID hit. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. Good luck in your trading! God bless!
Education
by ICFX
SMART MONEY CONCEPTS #1: LIQUIDITY THEORYHi everyone! As you all should know by now, I mainly use smart-money concepts to enter into my trades. Today I will be talking about the concept of liquidity and how to capitalise on it. Looking at the graph, there are 4 main types of liquidity that I use and as stated in the chart, I will normally look for entries off the liquidity grab zones or liquidity hotspots as I would describe. Make sure to backtest and forward test into your chart data to identify which type of liquidity are the most prevalent. There are many many different forms to liquidity zones and knowing when a liquidity grab occur can be a very profitable strategy.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Jon_Jones_Junior
3
Trading EUR/USD with Moving Averages and Price ActionA simple way to trade EUR/USD is by taking advantage of its tendency to retest the 200-period moving average on the hourly chart. To do this, wait for the currency pair to move away significantly from the 200-period moving average and show signs of overbought or oversold conditions with two peaks or troughs, along with divergence. This presents an opportunity to enter a trade in the direction of the moving average. To execute this strategy, first, identify the 200-period moving average on the hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair. Next, monitor the price action to look for significant deviations from the moving average with clear signs of overbought or oversold conditions. This may include the formation of two peaks or troughs with divergence in the price action. Once you have identified these conditions, consider entering a trade in the direction of the moving average. For instance, if the price is significantly above the moving average and shows signs of overbought conditions, consider entering a short trade. On the other hand, if the price is significantly below the moving average and shows signs of oversold conditions, consider entering a long trade. In summary, this strategy involves identifying overbought or oversold conditions in the EUR/USD pair, along with divergence and two peaks or troughs, as it moves away from the 200-period moving average. This can help you identify trading opportunities in the direction of the moving average. ----------------------------------------------- Share your feedback in the comments and demonstrate your support by liking the tutorial. Please follow if you're interested in more tutorials like this. Your support is highly valued!
Education
by Candlestick_OB
2
InvestMate|December the worst month for bulls on the US dollar🐻December statistically the weakest month for the US Dollar, a statistic since 2000 against the EUR/USD. Relative to statistics, December is the month in which EUR/USD gains the most. The average EUR/USD increase for the month is over 1.58%. This year there is a really good chance that the rule could be confirmed. December statistically the weakest month for the US Dollar, a statistic since 2000 against the EUR/USD. Relative to statistics, December is the month in which EUR/USD gains the most. The average EUR/USD increase for the month is over 1.5% This year there is a really good chance that the rule could be confirmed Historically, the increases have been: 2000: +8% 2001: -0.37% 2002: +5.59% 2003: +5.04% 2004: +1.91% 2005: +0.44% 2006: -0.3% 2007: -0.3% 2008: +9.75% 2009: -4.48% 2010: +3.15% 2011: -3.62% 2012: +1.54% 2013: +1.43% 2014: -2.93% 2015: +2.84% 2016: -0.66% 2017: +0.85% 2018: +0.84% 2019: +1.8% 2020: +2.45% 2021: +0.4% 2022: ? Average: +1.589% 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Education
by InvestMate
1
Tug of War Among Central BanksThere is a tug of war situation among the central banks to hike interest rates. What is the bad and the good that will come out from this? i. Last week of October, European Central Bank officials announced another massive 75 basis point hike, increasing interest rates at the fastest pace in the history of the euro currency. ii. This week, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. iii. The Bank of England could join the club on Thursday. Content: . The Interest Rate race has just started, why? . The impact on different currencies . It may not be all bad news, why? With higher interest rates, it attracts investors to buy its currency, in this case the USD. Currency is always a pair, when USD strengthens, the other side weakens. When a currency gets weaker, it is very bad news for inflation because they will have to pay more on their imports. Therefore in order to counter inflation, one of the best measures is to hike rate Expect more volatility in the currencies market, meaning currencies will take its turn to move. And if you are a trader, you should welcome volatility. Because with volatility, there are opportunities. GBP Futures 0.0001 = $6.25 0.001 = $62.50 0.01 = $625 0.1 = $6,250 1.1000 to 1.2000 = $6,250 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
CME:6B1!Education
by konhow
77
Most of the time, you will observe a correction.Today we will go through a simple trading lesson, but an effective one. The example I will be using today in terms of timeframes is mainly focused on Swing Traders; however, these principles remain valid for any timeframe because of the fractal characteristic of the market. Also, this will be a bullish example, but the same principles apply to bearish examples. Here, you will have a 4 step process to understand how to improve your executions on any asset. 1)Major Daily Trendline: This is the main structure I have as context. The structure or trend must be evident, such as 300 days bearish trend, where we can draw a descending trendline. It's crucial when looking at these structures to see if they are close to a "major" support zone or if they have already made contact with them. That would be optimal! (Here I would use the weekly timeframe) 2)Breakout: Assuming that the previous conditions on item 1 were fulfilled, now we are in a situation where we can expect a change in direction, and we are interested in developing a setup on the new "expected impulse." Most people fail in developing a good setup because they trade the first breakout of the structure, thinking that the price will skyrocket. As a general rule, consider this: "Never trust the first breakout" This takes us to the next item. 3)Correction: After the breakout of a major structure like the daily trend of the last 300 days or more, we want to see a correction! Here corrections will tend to show some proportion to the previous structure the price is coming from. I draw an ABC pattern on this template, but the main idea is that you want to observe a clear retracement from the breakout where the price tests the broken trendline again or at least makes a clear consolidation of a few days. 4) Setup: Now that we observed all the previous sequences, we can easily develop setups: Pending Stop order for our Entry-level above "B" on the flag pattern. Then, stop loss below "C" or, in other words, below the correction. Finally, take profit on the next MAJOR resistance level. Why do this? Because you are adding filters before trading, and that way you need the price to fulfilled certain conditions which will have three major improvements: Increase the odds of engaging on a high-quality setup and the 2nd one avoid low-quality scenarios or fakeouts. Also, you will avoid overtrading because you need CONTEXT. Thanks for reading, feel free to ask all your questions or more information related to this in the comments ;)
Education
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Cyclic Nature of 23 HR charts. How to forecast volatility.I bet nobody of you looked at 23 hour chart of EUR or GBP. But this is the chart that will reveal some secrets to you as a trader. Take a better look at it. I have no logical explanation to this but its robotic nature is effective in forecasting impulsive price moves. You can use RSI with 23 hours chart. I find it esp useful as it is using closing prices, which are clearly cyclical on 23 hrs chart. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY!
Education
by ICFX
The Fundamentals of Forex - Lesson 1 PMIIn the next following days I am going to work on a full education course designed for understanding the fundamentals behind Forex market and at the same time showing how it can be used for days trading using fundamental news strategy. Our first lesson : U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Understanding the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing Reports The Service and Manufacturing sectors comprise the majority percentage of US GDP. As such it is important to gauge the overall health of these components. One of the most useful sentiment studies that can help traders and investors to forecast future economic trends is the ISM PMI Manufacturing report, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing report. What is the ISM Non-Manufacturing Report ? The Non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is released by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). The Institute was founded in 1915, and was the first supply management institute in the world. The report on business is a composite index that helps measure the economic health of the US economy. Though the Manufacturing PMI has been around for much longer, there was a need to measure the economic situation within the service sector as well. This is especially true since the service sector is attributed a majority percentage of US GDP in real terms As such the ISM Non-Manufacturing report was born. This report has been published by ISM starting in 1998. The data is compiled from surveys of approximately 400 purchasing managers in over 65 various non-manufacturing industries including mining, agriculture transportation, retail, and more. The report is released on a monthly basis on the third day of each month and reflects the data for the previous month. The Non Manufacturing Composite Index (NMI) is based on four equally weighted indicators: New Orders, Business Activity, Employment, and Supplier Delivery. All of these indicators are seasonally adjusted expect for the Supplier deliveries. Generally speaking, when the index is over 50, it demonstrates that the economy is growing, while an index of less than 50 signals a contracting economy. In addition, a better than expected reading is usually bullish for the US Dollar, and conversely a lower than anticipated reading is usually bearish for the US Dollar. Positive readings over time will also tend to help boost stock prices. Typically, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index has a somewhat diminished market impact compared to the Manufacturing PMI release. One reason for this is that the non-manufacturing sector is generally much less volatile and more foreseeable than its US Manufacturing Index counterpart. What is the ISM PMI Manufacturing Index ? PMI Manufacturing Index on trading view MAN_PMI chart It measures the manufacturing output for a particular time horizon. The ISM PMI Manufacturing report is released every month, on the first business day of the month. The data reflects the prior month’s activity. The manufacturing sector is an integral component of the overall economic health of a country. Although the manufacturing sector of the US economy is less than 15% of total GDP, it is nevertheless an important economic report and often highly watched by many Forex traders. The report is produced by ISM and is a diffusion index, which basically means that it has various components that comprise the index. The resulting number is then updated to take into account seasonality factors. The PMI Index composite takes into account the following indicators: New Orders, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The ISM Manufacturing report is gathered by surveying over 400 Purchasing and Supply managers about their future expectations on production, inventories, employment, and new customer orders. The benchmark number is 50 for the index. So, if the number is higher than 50 then this hints of economic growth, while a reading of 50 or lower is considered to be contractionary. The ISM PMI index is considered to be a leading indicator. It helps foretell future spending and expenditures that contribute to economic expansion. The indicator tends to reflect changes before the economy does. If there is an uptick in the PMI index, meaning there is more manufacturing output, then this is likely to lead to stronger economic considerations. And contrary to this, if there is a downtick in the PMI manufacturing index, meaning there is less manufacturing output, then this is likely to lead to weaker economic conditions. Trading the ISM Numbers As we have learned in the earlier section, an ISM composite index number above 50 indicates that the US economy is expanding. In addition, when the number has been above the 50 baseline for several months, it tells us that the economy is stable and strong. Conversely, when the number is below 50 it indicates that the US economy is contracting. And a number that has been below the 50 baseline for several months, can warn us of a potential recession. Aside from the longer term forecast that we can make using the ISM figures, short term traders, can take advantage of the ISM economic release for short term price movements. One of the more popular types of news trading methodologies using the ISM report is to trade a divergence between expected results and the actual figure that came in. For example, if economists are expecting a reading over 55 and the actual index composite comes in at 52 or 53, then the market may react to this discrepancy after the release. In this case, fundamental news traders would likely expect the lower than expected figure to be bearish for the Dollar, and a day trading opportunity could exist to ride the short term momentum on a weakening Dollar. You could sell the USD/JPY pair for example, or buy the EUR/USD pair for a short term day trade or scalp. However, this trading idea is a generalization and traders need to keep in mind other news events and/or technical levels that could override the ISM reading. Real examples For this analyse, lets take a look at EUR/USD pair since December 2020 using 15/30min time frame chart. Rules : Actual data is lower than forecast -> EURUSD LONG opportunity. -> USDJPY SHORT opportunity Actual data is higher than forecast -> EURUSD SHORT opportunity. -> USDJPY LONG opportunity Risk reward ratio : 1:1.5 OR 1:2 Also from my volatility calcuations over the last years, I found out that the best it should be to look for 10-20 pips movements in case of EUR/USD after the release of the PMI. Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Dec 01, 2020 (Nov) 11:00 57.5 58.0 59.3 -> EUR/ USD LONG OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have won the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Jan 05, 2021 (Dec) 11:00 60.7 56.6 57.5 -> EUR/ USD SHORT OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have won the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Feb 01, 2021 (Jan) 11:00 58.7 60.0 60.5 -> EUR/ USD LONG OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have won the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Mar 01, 2021 (Feb) 11:00 60.8 58.8 58.7 -> EUR/ USD SHORT OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have lost the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Apr 01, 2021 (Mar) 10:00 64.7 61.3 60.8 -> EUR/ USD SHORT OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have lost the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous May 03, 2021 (Apr) 10:00 60.7 65.0 64.7 -> EUR/ USD LONG OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have won the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Jun 01, 2021 (May) 10:00 61.2 60.9 60.7 -> EUR/ USD SHORT OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have lost the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Jul 01, 2021 (Jun) 10:00 60.6 61.0 61.2 -> EUR/ USD SHORT OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have won the trade RESULTS 5 Wins and 3 Losses Giving us a 60% win rate with a risk reward of 1:1.5
Education
by SoftKill21
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