EURAUD Sell (Forecast) Technical Analysis:
Price on the 4h has just broken structure to the downside showing the maybe for the next few days or even weeks we could be falling pretty heavily. When you look on the 1h timeframe it looks as if EA has a lot of momentum to the upside, which it does for now but at the same time this could be an ABC corrective wave to the upside before falling once again. The purple zone has many confluences telling us that could be our zone where we fall heavy.
-4h level where price fell heavy before
-1h Fib extension
-4h 78.6% fib pullback
-Broken Trend Line retest
So there are a lot of things telling us that this pair could fall massively, but before we enter into the sell we want to first understand when it has run out of steam to the upside and then know when it is starting to shift it's momentum back to the downside.
D-EUR
EURUSD Quick Short Trade *LEARN TO TRADE MARKET GAPS*I have recently had a lot of success trading the weekend market gaps forming on a few major FX currency pairs so I thought I would show you another example and explain it in more detail.
Market gaps most commonly occur when price moves quicker than the market or, in the case of weekends, when the market is closed. Things happen in the market over the weekend so when Sunday evening trading opens, price has normally moved or "gapped" away from the close price on Friday.
I don't trade every gap I see in the market and that is because of how the gap forms as part of the prevailing trend that is showing. I always try to trade with the trend and use market gaps as a discounted way of entering into a normal trend following trade.
This example is on EURUSD.
The market gaps upon opening and is now around 20 pips higher than the close price on Friday. This is good because the price has gapped up when I have the bearish trend marked on the chart with the lower highs and bearish TL. A gap up means I can enter short and be onside with the current bearish trend. This seriously helps with profitability and success in the long term.
My confluences for taking this trade are:
- RSI showing over bought.
- Price is around daily pivot level.
- Bearish trendline
- Lower highs and lows.
I always place my Stoploss 10 pips above the current high when taking my pivot trades and I have used this same method for these quick gap trades.
Profit Targets:
My TP1 is always set to the Friday close price. This means the gap has been fulfilled.
TP2 is set at the daily S1 level. This is taken from my day trading strategy because if there is a lot of momentum then it makes sense to ride it out for more profit.
TP3 is set at the daily S2 level if there is still enough bearish momentum to make it there.
R:R Ratios:
- If price makes it to TP1 then that is a very simple 2:1 trade.
- TP2 would make the trade a 4:1 trade.
- TP3 would make this trade over 6:1 R:R which is crazy but sometimes possible if there enough momentum in the markets.
Thanks for reading and I hope this helps at least a few of you to start spotting and trading market gaps. They really are very good to help you get a head start on the week ahead and lock in a few % profit before Monday has even began!
Elliot Wave Alternation Elliot Wave Alternation
The guideline of alternation states that if wave two of an impulse is a sharp retracement, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. Figure 22 shows the most characteristic breakdowns of impulse waves, both up and down. Sharp corrections never include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave. They are almost always zigzag (single, double or triple); occasionally they are double threes that begin with a zigzag. Sideways corrections include flats, triangles, and double and triple corrections. They usually include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave.
Assessing your Trading Journey!! Are you moving forward?SELF-DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Assess your Trading Journey!!
Whether you are new to trading, or you are a veteran everyone needs to constantly improve and developing themselves and their trading. Would you expect to become a brain surgeon after attending a weekend seminar and reading a few books? So why do so many people expect to become market experts within a short period of time?
Trading is a journey. We must have steps in place( Trading Plan) in order to achieve trading success.How long does it take to become a competent trader? This will all be determined by the individual. Below is a quick guide line:
Years (0-1)
Spend the time and effort in creating a Trading strategy that suits your personality and lifestyle
Educate yourself on basic trading books, podcasts, you tube videos and seminars.
What asset class will i be trading?
Determine whether you will use Fundamental or Technical analysis?
Will i be a discretionary or use a mechanical trading system?
Open a demo account and learn to use the software and execute orders.
Start using a trading journal.
Buy self help books and listen to motivational you tube videos
Towards the end of the year you will know whether trading is for you or not.
Year 2
Fund your trading account with a small amount of cash.
Continue learning by reading trading books, attending seminars, Podcasts, forums, watching you tube videos and listening to motivation videos
Start to understand the importance of psychology in trading
Back test your strategy and gain more confidence in your strategy
Develop a trading plan
Year 3
By this time you should have created a strategy that fits your personality and life-style.
You will be starting to make small gains
Improving your trading psychology
Improving your trading plan
Years 4............
At this stage you should be taking a regular profits from the markets
Continue learning through books and listening to motivational videos
Always looking at ways to improve your trading strategy and yourself
The above is just an example. There are many more steps that you can take in your trading journey and this will be determine by the individual trader :)
Follow your Trading plan, remained disciplined and keep learning !!
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Thank you for your support :)
This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
EURUSD / H4 / Cypher PatternAs many of You are familiar with the Cypher Pattern.In this Scanerio We have Cypher Last Leg in formation which will complete the Pattern and from where we can place our Long position
Typical Cypher has these Fib Levels
1- Cypher pattern starts with the X and A points
2- Point B retraces to 0.382 – 0.618 Fibonacci level of the leg XA
3- Point C is formed when prices extend the XA leg by at least 1.272 or within 1.130 – 1.414 Fibonacci extension
4- Point D is formed when it retraces 0.782 Fibonacci level of XC.
How I trade this Pattern ?
First of all at the Completion of D , I personally Dont place orders ,What i do is
1- wait for market to go close to X to get a Good R/R
2- wait for double bottom on H1 or H4
3- Candlestic formation ( Bullish Hammer or Bullish Engulfing Candle)
Targets :
First TP is 0.382 Fiv retracement from C to D
TP2 can be varied Depending on Structure levels
SL : Below the X
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Is there correlation between two economies? The line graph is EUR/USD & Candles USD/CHF
This is a common pair that traders say is inversely correlated...
Is there correlation between economies? Is it because of USD's part?
Will correlation make you the good R/R trades or structure?
Is there a way to trade the correlation (if any) effectively?
Draw your own conclusions & have a good weekend!
Why 90% of Retail Traders Fail - "Fear of Missing Out!"There are so many reasons why 90% of retail traders fail. One of the main reasons is because retail traders over trade. They fear missing an opportunity and because of this they think there is always an opportunity when in reality there isn't. As traders, it is our job to find high probable setups. Probable setups are limited though... so you need to have patience to wait for them to unfold.
All too often I see traders here chasing price , and this EURUSD today is a perfect example of this. I can't even imagine how many traders got short on the break out of this short term up trend line. Many probably waited for the hourly candle to close to enter, but what happened? Immediately after they entered price reversed sharply and is on the way to stopping those traders out who most likely have their stop loss just above the high around 1.047.
If we look at the price action over the month of December on this pair, we can clearly see the 1.05-1.052 area have been strong support where buyers continuously stepped in every time price approached it. Once that support was broken you can see that the role of the level reversed and it became resistance. Sellers came in on the back side of the level, however only intraday did it retest the level. It is likely that there will be an official retest of the figure and another major attempt to the downside, even if it is just to the previous low.
IF price comes back to a major area that was support it will VERY LIKELY become resistance. A setup like this is a high probable setup, but it takes a while to unfold. It has been 6 days so far since the level has been broken. Maybe it will hit the level today... maybe not. Maybe it will hit the level tomorrow... maybe not. Maybe it will hit the level next week. Maybe it will NEVER come back to the level... Who knows... but as traders we must be patient if we want to get the most probable setups.
It is better to miss a trade than to take a poor trade!
If you want to get setups that have low odds of working out, that is fine. You do you, but if this resonates with even one trader and helps them trade better than my job here is done.