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Eurusd-3

EURUSD – Is it doing an about turn for the worse? - Update In my previous chart of EURUSD, you will find lots of details explaining why I am anticipating a new bearish cycle in which the wave 4 (in circle) was about completed and wave 5 (in circle) was about to commence. There are lots of additional charts in comment section to help validate longer term view. This chart is linked below for your reference. We did not have the follow through to initial decline. Instead a new high was pasted last week. At present, I do not think that this has really changed much for the longer term. In the short term wave 4 was still in progress. So this is a second attempt to identify possible completion of wave 4, which could now be in place or will be shortly. If correct then wave 5 will follow as anticipated. In addition to details describe in the earlier chart referred to above, here is the summary of updated technical: 1. We have a trendline from July 2008 high, connection April 2011 high (but ignoring May 2014 as over throw) which comes in to proximity of current price that might mark wave 4 high. 2. We have an uptrend line on RSI from 2013 and August 2017 peak appear to suggest a hidden bearish divergence along with normal divergence with price making new high above August peak and RSI making lower high. 3. In addition to that, we have possible time symmetry shown on the chart – namely April 2011 High to March 2014 closing high measures 150 bars on weekly charts, which equates to approx 149 bars measured from March 2015 low to current high. 4. Fibonacci time relationship between Waves 1 – 3 and wave 4 is approx Fib ration of 1.3618 as shown in the chart. 5. Open Interest and Net Long by Large Speculators is even more extreme now than the one we noted at previous peak in August/September 2017, see chart below. Short Entry: You can drop down to daily or 4 hour time frame to time short entry on confirmation using your normal method. Just keep in mind that it might can chop about before it gets going in anticipated decline. Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps the me most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV
Education
by DanV
14
EUR & YEN Futures - Use of Commitment of Traders data Commodity & Futures Trading Commission gather data from various Exchanges and compile which are then released and are available on their Websites - www.cftc.gov Commitment of Traders Data = COT (abberiviation) These data are released on Friday of Each Week after Market Closes. They are based on Positions as close of Tuesday of that week. These are compiled to show 3 main groups which are: Commercials = Banks, Broker/Dealers (Hedging the Risk), Producers, Wholesalers, Or Commodity Users – Either looking to Hedge Risk or Receive or Send Delivery Speculators – which are: Non-Commercials = Money Managers, Hedge/Leveraged Fund Mangers, who are Speculators and are not looking to for delivery or receiving one on settlement day Non-Reportable = Still large traders, but a whose positions falls below the threshed to be classes as Non-Commercial Non-Commercials have Research Departments manned by Fundamental and Technical Analysts. These are then use by their trader. Therefore their positions reflect both the Fundamental and Technical analysis and can be viewed as Hybrid. Their sudden change from week to week of significant amount or percentage and their overall net long or short compared with historical behaviour can be used as what might be deemed as relative extreme together with Open Interest and Technical Analysis can provide interesting and useful insight in the strength of the trend or possible reversal. See the linked EURUSD chart and a video publication of Oil for further details on how I have used them. Below is a link of examples of the weekly data released for Futures for respective Instrument: drive.google.com I hope it will helps you in your own application of this to your Technical Analysis. Thank you for viewing my video and welcome comments or questions. DanV
Education
by DanV
8
Trends are THE MOST IMPORTANT tool in the toolbox.Hello Traders. Hope everyone is staying warm. Snow and zero degree temperatures expected in Virginia. Many traders use many different indicators. There are so many its impossible to tell which ones are useful. Simplicity is key. The most important tool in a traders toolbox is the ability to deceiver the prevailing trend. Using higher high/ lower low analysis we can identify the difference between strong market moves and weaker ones. This stems from the well known philosophy that in order for markets to continue moving in the correct direction they need to confirm momentum shift before making large moves. -Resistance is considered overhead levels that price struggles to break AND CLOSE above. -Support is considered under price levels that price struggles to break AND CLOSE below. Notice how I mention, AND CLOSE. It is 100% required that price CLOSES above the support or resistance level to declare it broken on whatever time frame chart being traded. After the perfect head and shoulders pattern unfolded many traders continued to short EURUSD without much success (Took a stop loss myself) One must recognize the downward momentum was triggered by the bearish head and shoulders pattern (see attached post, traded perfectly.) In actuality the trend is still bullish. At the end of the head and shoulders move, trend reversed only briefly. Price was unable to break the low before moving higher. At (1) the first top was made. After making new highs, we always expect a retest of old resistance confirming support. (2) Price came back and tested old resistance, confirming support in a reckless fashion. This wiped all long traders out and assured direction for short traders who were burned before. Once everyone was mixed up, the trend prevailed to the upside. Now we find ourselves at (3). New highs have been confirmed so price is expected to retest old resistance to confirm as support around the 1.19500ish level. At this level I will be watching diligently for signs of rejection and ready to take entry on a single close of any rejection formations. If we confirm price action, targets are estimated around 1.2300. IF you found this useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! TElphee – Self-made Technical Analyst. 5-year market enthusiast with experience in Forex, Futures and Cryptocurrencies. Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. This is NOT investment advice.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629
8
What does a Break-Hook-Go look like.Break Hook Go is a candle pattern of several candles not just one candle. Here is what it looks like on this EURUSD trade. The bearish breakout did not complete the break-hook-go (B-H-G) and failed. The bullish breakout did have a B-H-G. There was a green breakout candle on the 15m chart. The second green candle had a bearish wick for the Hook (pullback) then it closed green for the Go. On the 5m you can see the separate candles that made that up the 15m B-H-G. 5m - Break green candle Hook red candle Go is a green continuation bullish candle.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
If you are continuously loosing money ,read and apply this......PART 1 Are you tired and exhausted of finding a strategy that works, are you tired of predicting forex markets only to find out sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. First of all, you have to see what are your beliefs and you need to verify if you have right beliefs. Many traders think that forex trading is not gambling and to make money from forex you just need a golden strategy that works. I can write thousands of words on how beliefs always defend itself from discomforting knowledge and people with such wrong believes end up giving their money to markets. In simple words: TRADING IS GAMBLING If trading is gambling then how to make money out of it? There are many people who make consistent profit from the market. { including me :) }. TREAT FOREX LIKE CASINO TREAT THIER GAMBLERS Forex trading is a probability game. Corporations spend vast amounts of money, in the hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars, on elaborate hotels to attract people to their casinos. How do you suppose they justify spending vast sums of money on elaborate hotels and casinos, whose primary function is to generate revenue from an event that has a purely random outcome? Here’s an interesting paradox. Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, facilitating an event that has a purely random outcome. At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market’s behavior is not random, yet can’t seem to produce consistent profits. Shouldn’t a consistent, non-random outcome produce consistent results and a random outcome produce random, inconsistent results? What casino owners, experienced gamblers, and the best traders understand that the typical trader finds difficult to grasp is: Events that have probable outcomes can produce consistent results, if you can get the odds in your favor and there is a large enough sample size. The best traders treat trading like a numbers game, similar to the way in which casinos and professional gamblers approach gambling. ___________________________________________________ Patterns, Fibonacci, indicators, support and resistance lines etc don't work ___________________________________________________ Before you start to think i am crazy, please continute reading. I know many pattern traders, support and resistant traders and fibo traders on this websites. They hardly predict market 50% right. Some of them are around 50-60% range. I can toss a coin and can come up with a 40-60% winning rate. Therefore if your strategy works, then my coin strategy works as well. Technical Strategies sometimes work and sometimes don't, just like a flipping a coin. If you have a strategy which won last 9 times, does it mean it will work 100% 10th time? No ! there's still a 50-50% chance, just if 9 coin flips showed heads last 9 times, doesn't mean 10th will also be a head. 5 rules to be a consistently successful trader over the long term: >> ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN: There are always unknown forces operating in the market at every moment. Regardless of how much time, effort, the money you have to spend in your analysis, from the market perspective, the outcome will always be random. >> YOU DON'T NEED TO KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT IN ORDER TO MAKE MONEY: why? because there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variable that defines an edge. Just like a casino with random outcomes, you can make a consistent profit. >> THERE IS A RANDOM DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN WINS AND LOOSES FOR ANY GIVEN SET OF VARIABLE THAT DEFINES AND EDGE: Every losing trade puts you one step closer to a winning trade because the outcomes of any edge are totally random. The same theory is applied by casinos if someone wins money casinos don't get scared as they knew over the long term they will win. >> AN EDGE IS NOTHING MORE THAN INDICATION OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ONE THING HAPPENING OVER ANOTHER: If you have a strategy which gives you higher probabilities .....( limited words)..
Education
by Wave-Expert
5
"Trade Like A Casino" (Trading Psychology)What is the best way to make money on gambling? Own a casino. - Casinos operate as a business. - Casino have table limits to manege and their customers are likely to risk it all. - Casinos have a mathematical edge, and gamblers are at a disadvantage. - Casino has no ego or emotion, but gamblers do. Now what give us a trading Edge: .Trends .Support and Resistance .Moving Averages .Divergence .Fibonacci Levels .Technical Indicators .Candle Stick Patterns .Harmonic Patterns .Consolidation Patterns .News Catalyst -By them self, technical signals are not reliable enough! but in the right combination...they give you a statistical Edge, turns to a profitable system!! If you are now talking to yourself, like man I use nearly all of that list but I keep losing money !? Lemme tell you why in the chart above! All what you have to do is to find out which one is your missing circle, and start working on it ! please chick out my related idea about risk management, and why you should always be a process-oriented not a results-oriented also if you can keep a trading journal, cuz it'll help you when things gets bad you'll get back to it and find out what you have done wrong cause without information you can't make improvements to your trading plan. P.s. if you want more about risk management and ways to limit your drawdowns in trading plz leave a comment ! Best of trading Forex brothas $$
Education
by YaseenG.Housari
13
Simple Trading Strategy > 10/20 SMASimple Trading Strategy > 10/20 SMA > Basic Education Chart: EURUSD Timeframe: Any Indicators: 10 SMA / 20 SMA 10 SMA = Faster 20 SMA = Slower If 10 SMA crosses 20 SMA to the downside = downtrend probable IF 10 SMA crosses 20 SMA to the upside = uptrend probable Very basic only ... be aware of false breaks/breaches, etc. This is a very simple strategy which can provide good results. Practice on Demo Account to test. * Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market. ** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK. Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.
Education
by ALSM59
How all charts work. The case of USDCHF.When you analyse charts, what picture do you see? Is this the type of a candle or the position of a moving average?Perhaps you prefer Fibonacci analysis alone? But are these techniques explain what really happens on the market and could truly predict what is going to occur? Today we would like to show the true nature of every single chart and how forecast might be made without the use of indicators or tough mathematical calculations. To make that prediction you will need your eyes, open mind and understanding that each impulse is followed by another impulse after a period of correction. In order for that Fractology will use the daily chart of USDCHF. If we look at the chart we could clearly see three waves of correction (depicted with ABC) and an impulse (depicted with an arrow). The fact that the pair has broken out of a terminal structure on the final stages of wave C tells us that it will make an attempt to test the structure of a high degree. Correspondingly the break of that next structure will force the pair to take off. Most commonly this analysis is known as a wave patterns analysis. It stipulates that at every time charts work within some wave structures on the "matryoshka" principle, repeating itself.
Education
by AleksandrLombrozo
EURUSD weekly Fibonacci levels for long term view and trading EURUSD is adhering or responding to the Fibonacci levels all most all of the times. When trader wants to ride the trend this much information is enough to enter and exit trades. We are not trying to forecast the direction or the top/bottom. We are trying to identify important zones in which price may turn in Future. Price patterns like double top or bottoms or many other patterns can be used along with Fibonacci. I have mentioned few on chart. Going ahead we can look for shorting opportunity near level 1 of Fibonacci and long near 1.27. Price may stop and turn(as expected) or continue up or down movement from mentioned levels. To avoid such scenarios where price continues the move instead of reversing, we need to take help of price structure and candlestick patterns. Many traders msg me about how Fibonacci doesn't work, I recommend them all to stop using Fibonacci and use the tool in which you believe. As a trader our job is not to criticize any tool or method of analysis. Our target needs to be "designing trade plan which works for us". No tool works independently in my experience, we always need to club different tools and use them collectively.
Education
by dhananjay.d.joshi
EURUSD MISSED OPPORTUNITY :(TECHNICALS -- WEEK - up trend following trendline A DAY - Respecting trendline A - looking for upward movement 4 HR - Upward movement already happened -- waiting for pull back Bias - lookin for buy, but waiting for pullback. FUNDAMENTALS -- 3:00a EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 4:30am GBP BOE Financial Stability Report 5:00am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 9:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence All in all, I forgot to set alerts/buystops -- I did get UJ, but was unsuccessful with this pair :(. I missed it. My analysis was spot on, but I didn't get in it in time and it took off like a bullet. The news definitely hurried these movements along. Glad to know my analysis was spot on. Overall I see this going up a little more. May retrace to line A
Education
by AdaezeWachukuDuncan
GOLD with "magical" Support and Resistance LevelsAs you can see "Magical" SR levels work every time. Support/Resistance (SR) Levels and Zones are very important for all traders. Basically, you can expect that on specific levels price will stop remain for some time or bounce off. This help up define Risk to Reward Ratio. I know few methods how to mark SR. But I have found that this method is the best to define SR levels. We can mark round numbers 1.5000, 1.0800, 50.00 – and those are psychological levels - our subconscious is telling us we should paid very high attention to them. W. D. Gann never mention to us Fibonacci numbers but he is talking about 1/4, 1/8th and 1/2 (which is not Fibonacci value but every one is using). Those levels are not only SR but also helping our brain to quickly define size of the moves and how far price will go or trace back. Those are example values 1.5250, 1.0875, 0.7500, 0.975 and so on. I hope you now you will see those levels with more confident and they work each time. Take a look at levels 1300.00, momentum become weak and price just shy away from it. look at 1200.00 where third swing from the right stops on it. And what we have now? Price just stop on one more "MAGICAL" level 1225.00 I hope you can see what I see... cheers, Jim Poniat
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by jimmycdn
4
10 Great Trading Quotes It's always refreshing to hear from some of the trading greats that have made a killing on the markets. Here are ten quotes that'll make you think twice: "Volatility is greatest at turning points, diminishing as a new trend becomes established." - George Soros Soros cemented his position as a trading legend when he banked billions by shorting the British pound ahead of Black Wednesday - the day that traders broke the pound. They didn't really break the pound, but they forced the British Government to pull it from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), which it had joined in an attempt to unify European economies. Soros made a pretty penny from trading volatile markets, opting to use it as an indication of a the beginning of a new trend. "Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead." - Paul Tudor Jones Jones is a Tennessee-born hedge fund manager, investor and philanthropist who as of February 2017, was the 120th richest person on the Forbes 400. The market is a living, breathing thing. It is constantly changing and it is always right. Jones understood this, which is why he stressed the importance of being adaptable and capable of changing your trading style to suit market conditions. As Darwin famously said, it is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change. “You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.” - Warren Buffet A household name in the trading and investing sphere, Buffet has made more money than most of us put together. You don't need to understand electricity to flick the light switch, and you don't need to understand the physics of a wave to be able to surf it. “Superlative performance is really a confluence of dozens of small skills or activities, each one learned or stumbled upon, which have been carefully drilled into habit and then are fitted together in a synthesized whole. There is nothing extraordinary or superhuman in any one of those actions; only the fact that they are done consistently and correctly, and all together, produce excellence.” - Daniel F. Chambliss, Professor of Sociology Here, Chambliss emphasizes the mundanity of excellence. Each factor that helps us make our trading decisions may seem underwhelming on its own, but bundle them all together and it produces some incredible results. "I was seldom able to see an opportunity until it had ceased to be one." - Mark Twain Trust your analysis before you miss the move.
Education
by avidtrader89
3
Why bad psychology might be stopping you from succeedingYou are a Human. This is good. You are capable of making complex decisions. You can identify patterns. You can enter excellent trades. This is also bad. Between your ears is a narcotics factory that will put Heisenberg's mobile meth lab to shame. You've entered a trade. This is it. The BIG one. A one-way ticket to infinite infinity pools. Adrenaline dilates your pupils and switches off your digestive system. Suddenly you're not hungry anymore. Endorphins , stronger than morphine, are spewed out of the pituitary gland. Dopamine released from the middle of your brain means you can no longer hold in your excitement. This trade's a winner! Anandoline kicks in, you're hungry again. There's some the leftover beef bourguigion in the fridge. Who needs speed when you've got PEA ? Shit, the trade's gone sour! Suddenly you're anxious. It must be the serotonin . Being Human is something we can't get away from. But we can learn to master our mind. A recent study by DailyFX analyzed 43 million real trades to measure trader performance. They found that across 15 most traded currency pairs, the majority of trades were successful . Yet traders are still losing. Why? They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. So if you're reading this and it applies to you, you're probably very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities. Over 50% of your trades may well be profitable. Because you're Human and you're awesome. So how can we be more profitable? If your trading strategy has a high strike rate, then a low risk-reward ratio will suit - but you have to let the trades play out. If you don't do this, it will ruin your trading edge. If you fall into this category, then a 1:1 or 1:2 trade will suit you fine. remember to give the trade enough room to breath. I've seen traders make amazing calls, yet they place a stop loss 10-20 pips away from their entry. This is simply not enough. If you're not so confident with your trading strategy and you've not been consistently making winning calls, you first might want to learn from people that know more than you. Knowledge is power! The second thing you might want to do is have a slightly higher risk-reward ratio (1:2 or 1:3, even 1:4). If you fall into this category, try identifying excellent setups on the Daily or even Weekly charts. Trading on the hourly charts and expecting 1:4 trades to come in every time simply won't work. Set your stop and take, and leave it alone. Close your laptop and enjoy a caipirinha by the pool. Happy trading everyone, AvidTrader
Education
by avidtrader89
The Power Of "FRESH" Supply & Demand ZonesDetermining the strength of the fresh zones. Every time the trend changes direction, it is because of a change in the balance of supply and demand, but to use this to our advantage we need to know the likelihood of that imbalance being there the next time price returns to that zone. Supply and demand zones are similar to support and resistance lines in that supply zones provide resistance and demand zones provide support. When price breaks through a supply zone it becomes a demand zone, and when price breaks through a demand zone it becomes a supply zone—the same way a resistance line turns into support when broken and a support line turns into resistance. The similarities end there, though. A support or resistance line requires at least two points separated by time to be drawn, where a supply or demand zone can be plotted from one candle. Most traders will tell you that you should have three points for a support or resistance line to be drawn. Traders are also taught that the more times price bounces off of a support or resistance line, the stronger that line is. The opposite is actually true.
Education
by tradewonk
52
5 EASY STEPS TO TRADE THE BAT SETUPSTAGE 1: THE BULLISH IMPULSE LEG A bullish impulse leg is a strong move in price action to the upside. The impulse leg can be a mixture of bullish and bearish candles, but must have a bullish overall direction. The start of the impulse leg should be marked as X and the top of the impulse leg should be marked as A. STAGE 2: B LEG RETRACEMENT Now that you have identified your X to A impulse leg you are now looking for the B leg, which is a retracement of the X to A impulse leg. Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your X leg to your A leg. The crucial Fibonacci levels you are looking for are the 50.00% and 61.60% Price action must at least touch the 50.00% retracement but cannot touch the 61.80% retracement. As you can see by the illustration, the candle does not need to close below the 50.00% retracement but must at least spike through. The bullish Bat setup will be invalid if price action touches the 61.80% retracement of the X to A move. STAGE 3: C LEG RETRACEMENT Once you have identified a valid X to A impulse leg and a B leg retracement, you are now looking for a valid C leg retracement. Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your A leg to your B leg. The crucial Fibonacci retracement level you are looking for is the 61.80% Price action must at least touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance. The candle does not need to close above the 61.80% but must at least spike through. The bullish Bat setup will be invalid if price action spiked above the A leg resistance. STAGE 4: D LEG COMPLETION Now that you have a valid X, A, B and C move you are looking for the final leg in price action at which point you will buy the chosen currency pair. Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your X leg to your A leg. You are looking for a 88.60% which will now give you a valid D leg completion of the bullish Bat setup. STAGE 5: PLACING YOUR TARGETS When looking to take targets on the bullish Bat Setup the first step is to use your Fibonacci retracement tool. With your Fibonacci retracement tool draw from the A to D leg, you are looking for target 1 at the 38.20% and target 2 at the 61.80%. To protect the profits you have accumulated at target 1 it is advised you move your stop loss to breakeven once the 38.20% target 1 has been attained, thus giving you a risk free trade to target 2. KEY NOTES & RULES: When trading the bullish Bat Setup, the pattern is meant to be traded at 88.60% D leg completion only. If you believe the pattern is unfolding but price is only at point B, be patient and wait until price reaches the D leg completion. The power of the pattern comes from converging Fibonacci levels of all points from X to D. Point B must at least touch the 50.00% retracement but cannot touch the 61.80% from the X to A move. Point C must touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance. Point D is complete when price action touches the 88.60% retracement of the X to A move. Stop loss must be placed below the X leg structure support. Stop loss must also be a minimum of a 1:1 risk reward to the 38.20% target 1. Target 1 at the 38.20% retracement of the A to D move. Target 2 at the 61.80% retracement of the A to D move. CURRENCY PAIR: This setup like any other is more profitable with certain currency pairs, you should do your own back testing on this prior to trading. CANDLE COLOUR: Blue = Bullish Candle White = Bearish Candle DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information and techniques for your benefit and insight, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn180388
150