#SPX S&P500 the umbelievable/amazing match with 7th Oct 98Note: Matches with the past are no guarantee of future performance. Not Advice D.Y.O.R.
Note: Match = when purple MA closest to BB top band and at same time price low closest to orange MA
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
The fear in their eyesThe VIX is known as the 'fear index'. It has taken a pulse north which is not unexpected, as volatility on the P SPX500 took a leap recently.
The VIX is not an index I trade, nor do I know anyone who trades it. Its value is in keeping a finger on the 'pulse' of the stock market.
When the VIX begins to pulse, expect trouble. Some see trouble only after it has happened.
Stock buyback failures could herald a crashThe SPBUYUP index has not been shown in a published idea on Tradingview before now (I checked). It is the index which tells how much companies are buying back their own stock to keep the S&P500 afloat.
So if this fails, market 'manipulations' of the S&P500 could fail. Of course, this not the only thing that influences the S&P500 but it is a significant marker of influence or lack of it.
Putting the 'Poor' back in Standard & PoorThis is a nice case study in the usefulness of mating momentum indicators (if you could call averaging out candlesticks a la 'Heiken-Ashi' an indicator...).
'Heiken-Ashi' translates to 'average bar' in Japanese, and aside from being aesthetic as hell they're also a great way to cut out noise. Since the Heiken-Ashi candles are formed from an average of the open, high, low, and close of the prior candle they are able to reliably display the general "temperment" so to speak of the local price action. The formula is simple: Wicks up top with a clean bottom is bullish, vice versa for bearish, and anything with a wick on both ends shows indecision.
In combination with Bollinger Bands one can not only identify the markets mood, but also its volatility and relative mobility within the bands. Thicc BB means high volatility, and in addition to slim BB being the inverse; it often indicates a pending move (especially on lower timeframes). As well, the two 'channels' in the BB and their respective boundaries provide targets for entries as well as being indicative of the trend.
Using the SPX as an example two things readily appear: 1.) A bear trend has been established 2.) It's got a few hundred more points of 'room' to fall before its hits anything significant in the BB structure, which it historically bumps into bull or bear....but especially bear.
That's about it, technical analysis can be that simple.
The difficulty in trading is often the problem solving involved in risk management, not technical analysis.
That being said, none of this is advice of any sort; I don't even know how to read: Trade responsibly.
Intelligent Moving Average EXPLAINED!If you already understand how this works, skip through to the scripting for a deeper look into the in-script back-tester.
Enjoy the video and don't forget to like!
Is bond market signaling something like 1937 and 2007?As all can see that 10 yr yield broke out of the long term trend line, and it has completed the double top. My hunch is it will come back to retest the trendline around 2%. That is the flight to safety. We can see that in 2008 what happened when 10 yr yield sharply dropped, equities dropped more than 30% in a short period of time.
All in all, short bond is a crowded trade, it may trigger a bond squeeze and equities bloodbath in the coming months. Be prepared and don't be blind sighted by the short term ramp by MM. Because they know it is coming so they need to make it look like we are going way higher, thats the only way they can dump overhead inventory.
For the reference, see the comparison that I did in 1937. Link is below.
#EURNOK and #UKBRENT #UKOIL CorrelationWhen we look at correlations in charting, we sometimes see certain #FX pairs are correlated to a #commodity or #index, in this instance I am giving you an example of #EURNOK vs #UKOIL #BRENT. These charts can help you make distinctions in the trend of the commodity, so when we see a #bullish EURNOK, you want to be looking a trades that are bearish Brent/UKOil, again this is not tick for tick, so, you will use confirmation like trendlines, underlying fundamentals etc. But you can clearly see the correlations. I suggest you try this with other markets, like #USDNOK #WTI #USDJPY #NIKKEI #SPX #10YR
RSI Top sellingRSI is the easiest and the most simple to read indicator in lifetime.
When RSI is approaching a 70-80 zone, you have to be extremely aware of shorting opportunities.
If market was an electric water heater , you should understand, that it can't go higher of boiling temperature or it will explode.
Anyway outcome is a drop and if RSI reached 80 , drop will be significant.
When RSI drops to 30-40 levels it's perfect time to take profit , preferably by using deversified take profit stops.
This is the most safest trading opportunity for anyone just because it can't go wrong.
Try to practice by scrolling Top 100 stocks.
Keep in mind - Drop in SPX index means significant drop in stocks across the board. There have to be perfect opportunities
besides SPX top 20 list for sure.
Never Trade on Amount of Money That You Don't Feel Comfortable too Loose.
Take It As A "SAFE" gambling only. Always use EXTRA margin , just to sleep well :)
It should be for fun , other wise you should not trade ever.
Investing and Trading are different things. Please understand that fundamentally.
This is a technical lesson / mentorship , not a financial advice of any kind.
Broad market update: DeleveragingI think we might be about to see deleveraging in the market, judging by the action in the yen, together with Gold rising on falling $VIX, while $SPX peaks, but fails to advance further after $VIX fell slightly. I suspect mid term election woes plus all the barrage of bad news related to trade wars and other topics might push investors into cash. Personally I've sold all my holdings except for my positions in gold and $TSLA, and will look into rebuying once a bottom is clearly spotted in the broad market.
For now, I will focus on determining if this thesis is correct, and if so, look into maximizing my gains in the gold rally that might emerge from here.
Gold hit a monthly support level, got oversold, whilst being in a monthly uptrend and flashed a huge buy signal from the Commitment of traders report data, whilst the daily trend ended, forming a potential reversal setup. Risk/reward is optimal on the long side now. I will scale into the trend as we get more and more confirmation and other trend continuation signals later on. Targets for it are as high as 1550, if we confirm a monthly T@M signal eventually.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
HYPERBITCOINIZATION: Shiller 10Yr Price/Earnings Ratio (S&P500)Similar to dividend yield price:earnings (P/E) looks at the profitability of stock shares. A high P/E ratio means that stocks are becoming less profitable which indicates that they are overvalued.
When the market becomes overvalued it is a sign to attentive investors to stop buying and think about closing positions. The more a market heats up, the more the proportion of cautious investors gives way to reckless investors and day trading / speculation. Such a runaway process does not carry on indefinitely. it will correct.
The Shiller P/E is therefore a warning to investors of an impending crash.
Shiller calculates the ratio for a given year over the proceeding 10 year period (adjusted for inflation). This approach helps to dampen short-term, intra-year "noise". It allows us to visualise risk and make direct comparison with market history.
Shiller calculates Price/Earnings as follows:
1) For any given date, take the yearly earnings of the S&P500 -0.24% -0.24% for the previous ten years.
2) Adjust for inflation based on Consumer Price Index
3) Take the average
4) Divide current price of S&P500 -0.24% -0.24% by the average calculated above.
5) Repeat for every year in the chart
Data provided by Quandl.
Today's Lesson (#5) : How trade possible market manipulations.Before playing that video, be aware that I'm a very agressive trader, which means high level of risk into trying to copy my trades. The quality in those videos comes out of their content, not just following blindly. I'll be trading this with low leverage as this is highly speculative. So please don't just follow blindly but just take the educational content out of this to learn how to trade manipulated market more "safely", still being aware that this remain high risky thing !
Market Review / Apr. 27th : BTCUSD, SPX, NGAS, VIXHope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
If you want to see my chart more closely, click the share button below that video.. You will be able to have access to the chart used in that video.
Indicators used in this forecast are PRO Sinewave BETA & PRO Momentum .
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
If you want to learn more about the basic rules to trade with my indicators here's the educational video link :
how not to play RSI! #SPX #RSIOverbought oversold signals are pretty important when entering a trade, i mostly use it to decide on the position size.
but, it can be seriously misleading in strong trending markets and cause massive losses when used alone.
you can see the massive rally btw 1997-2000 after RSI signaled overbought and kept making new lows...
Understanding Market Expectation Is ImportantUnderstanding and having a basic expectation of how the market tends to move is important not only for traders, but for investors too.
If you get in too early, you suffer unnecessary drawdowns.
If you get in too late, you will either suffer losses, or miss the train.
In trading and investing, there is more than just entry and exit.
Elliott Wave: Week of 11/20/17 - Unhappy Thanksgiving?The odds are lining up against the bulls. They may see a holiday cheer with a kiss of 2600 if lucky. However, the pullback from 2597 is incomplete and Bears are preparing for their feast. Continuing last week's issue the pullback is underway for an eventual total of 2-3% from the 2597 peak.
Elliott wave count, a Fibonacci level of 1 from the the 2/2016 low, a head and shoulder technical analysis pattern and violation of a lower channel line are all bearish signs for the near term. There is even a case for a harmonic butterfly pattern I've placed here:
The Bears will have their time - for now. Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the holiday.
Elliott Wave: Week of 11/13/17 - Something for everyoneTime for a pause of the upward trend while the Bears to welcome cooler times. Their romp will be brief, but I expect their volume to be loud. A pullback of 2-3% has been long anticipated and is finally here. For the Bulls it provides a breather before the next advance. A much larger tussle is ahead in Dec/Jan. For now, there is something for everyone.
S&P 500 DrawDowns indicated by VIX and SKEWIf you look at SKEW and VIX and combine both indicators, you can clearly see draw downs coming.
