Explaining a Circuit Breaker and Trading HaltsToday, the S&P 500 dropped 7% in a single session of trading. What does this mean? It triggers a Level 1 circuit breaker across equity markets and all trading pauses for 15 minutes.
A Level 2 halt happens when a a drop of 13% takes place, but if the drop happens after 3:25 p.m. ET, there is no halt. If the market ever drops 20% in a single day, all trading is halted for the entire day.
Circuit breakers do not happen often and they only apply to certain markets like equities, futures, and more. Knowing the levels for circuit breakers can help you better understand moments when markets are dropping swiftly.
We hope this explanation helps and please press like if you enjoyed it or write in the comments if you want to learn more.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Began with near 50% drop from high last time judging by VIXStudy of VIX etc. and what could happen to bitcoin before halvening. Chart shows peak in VIX to MA cross. Just picked cross which had MA on close peaking afterwards. See what happened to bitcoin last time. Began with a near 50% drop from the previous month's high! NOT ADVICE. DYOR. (See previous posting on VIX and SPX for more info)
SPX | S&P500 Analysenever forget that price will roll between key levels as RS or SP.
Within this zone you should consider some topics that can be effective:
- Main support & Resistance, which are included in the above timeframes like D1 / W
- Fucking COVID-19 that is going global by reckless chinese
11 Years im money injection, ho long will it work on.We see here sth special. Gain since 2008/9 crisis.
Why?
In the crisis worldwide money injection went on to delay a full recession.
Problems, we need more and more injection of monetary pol. or endless injection.
Companys like Amazon, Facebook, Alibaba, Bitcon and the other only rised of this unlimited injection of liquidity.
We don't solve recession, we only make the future recession worse.
The American Dream 2008-2020 was to found a tech company and rise is to a point of to big to fail.
Take care of your own future! stay well prepared.!!!
When the S&P500 catches the fluIn this screencast I look at the S&P500 on the 4H time frame only. I show how I estimate the probable direction (this does not mean prediction).
I give some information on why the markets are reacting to a low grade coronavirus called 2019-nCOV (same family as MERS and SARS).
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. If you make decisions based on this screencast and lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
How the Russell 2000 indicates a correction in the S&P 500The Russell 2000 small cap index has been a prevalent lagger throughout the whole US equity rally into all-time highs. This is of concern for the health of the economy and the health of the S&P 500 index. The small-cap sector reacts the most to economic conditions and monetary policy, being the most affected if they cannot make new highs and are over 8.5% away from all-time highs we can infer that a stronger correction of 8-10% may occur in the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 is full of companies that have been artificially inflated by stock buy-backs and also monetary policy allowing for cheaper borrowing. There is a healthy retrace coming out to catch down to small caps since they have not relished in the strong economic conditions. Which presents another concern, is the economy that strong to begin with? If there is a correction, there could be more buyers in both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 companies to help markets reach all-time highs yet again.
The correlation: Bond yields indicate SPX CORRECTIONUS treasury yields and the S&P 500 have a positive correlation. The two usually move lockstep to a certain degree and when they diverge, they don't stay divergent for too long.
This time, however, at the beginning of 2019, the divergence occurred and has continued for nearly 12 months now.
The idea behind the correlation is that bond prices are typically inverse to the equity prices, due to the yield of bonds being related to the SPX.
From darkest blue to lightest: 30-year yield, 10-year, 5-year.
The area at which the divergence began, the S&P 500 gained over 25% while bonds fell about 35%. This leaves us with three alternatives.
1. The S&P 500 corrects 50% to catch down with the bond yields (least likely)
2. Bond Yields for the 30, 10 & 5Year all rally 50% (not likely)
3. The two meet somewhere in the middle. Meaning bond yields rally 15-25% or so, while the S&P 500 drops 10-15%. (a most likely scenario)
This is why the SPX is overdue for at least a 2.50% pullbackThe equity markets in the US have been moving really well through highs like its nobody's business, however as they continuously progress the moves get shorter and the pullbacks non-existent. Recent a 1.5-2 year wedge in formation was broken to the upside which indicates a bull trend continuation. Usually, the pop above the broken resistance will revert at least temporarily to the broken level before moving higher. This isn't a crash and recession call to all-time lows rather an opportunity to identify a potential retrace before a larger pop.
The facts are, the volume on this whole break higher has been terribly low, no one wants to buy a market at all-time highs and no one wants to sell because they want more profit.
Its been 2 months with just 1 red week and that red week was insignificant. The pullback brings the price down to the wedge break and previous highs at least 2.50% lower than the price right now. From there, there will be 2 catalysts that bring price higher.
1. A lot of big money is waiting for an "in" on the long side of the market and when deemed cheap enough will bid up the market by strong buying.
2. The Fed is still pumping A LOT of money into the economy at abysmally low rates.
Long BONDS? Bond futures strength could spell S&P 500 weaknessThe recent upside in the bond market has been in tandem with the upside in the S&P 500. The move higher in bonds is largely due to the lower rates in monetary policy. Which should not directly affect long-term bonds by much but they have had some effect. Over the past three months, Bonds have gone down while the S&P 500 has made a lot of gains.
The 30-year bonds should rebound at the previous broken high which should hold as support. Max, the move may go down to the 50% retrace level based on the Fib retracement before rebounding. Till the retrace opens up we could see more upside in the equity market. The long extended wicks near support suggest the bond buyers coming in a pop above the recent high into all-time highs could crush the S&P 500.
There is a chance that the bond market continues to drop through the support levels, the opening upside for the equity market. This is the tail end of bond investments that have grown exponentially over the last year.
Correlations in markets are pivotal to identifying the current economic cycle on a longer-term perspective.