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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

Indexes - What are they and how do they work?Index tracks performance of multiple assets that are grouped together. One of the first people to introduce the concept of indexing were Charles Dow and Edward Jones when they created the Dow Jones index in 1896. This concept allows for an easy tracking of performance of any particular sector within the economy. For example, the Nasdaq 100 index tracks performance of hundred biggest tech companies in the U.S.; similarly, the Russell 3000 index tracks three thousand largest companies in the United States. These indexes contain U.S. securities which account for over 90% of U.S. corporate equity; therefore, analyzing an index provides an investor with information about the overall health of the economy or particular sector. Diversification Generally, investing in indexes is associated with lower risk than investing in stocks. This is because indexes are structured in such a way that they diversify risk by tracking performance of multiple assets rather than by tracking performance of one single asset. For example, if an investor's portfolio consists of shares of a single stock company and the value of those shares drops, then it directly affects the portfolio in a negative way. However, if an investor owns an index tracking performance of 10 companies instead of a one stock title, then the investor's risk is diversified among ten companies instead of one single company. Therefore, an index tends to perform well as long as the majority of its components perform well. Similarly, when the majority of companies incorporated within an index perform poorly then the index tends to reflect it. Illustration 1.01 Illustration above depicts the monthly chart of Hang Seng Index (Ticker: HSI). It is observable that the index performed well in the long-term. Though, massive drops in the index are observable too in 1997, 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018. Source: www.tradingview.com Value of the index and weight distribution The value of an index is dependent on its underlying holdings; further, it can be based on the price, market-cap or any other metric related to these assets. There are various methods on how to weight an index which plays an important role in how it performs. For example, in an unweighted index all its components have equal significance, regardless of their size. However, in a market-cap weighted index these components hold significance that is proportional to the size of their market-cap. Therefore, a volatile move in a big company would have a bigger impact on the overall performance of an index as opposed to the volatile move in a small company. Most indexes are price-weighted and market-cap weighted. Indexes as financial assets Generally, indexes tend to move in trends and produce good results over a long-term period. Index investing is preferable for inexperienced and passive investors because it tends to outperform active management in the long run. Additionally, it takes off psychological pressure that is associated with an actively managed portfolio while providing more free time to an investor. Exposure to an index can be gained by investing in index futures, options, CFDs, ETFs and other derivatives. Major indexes include: Dow Jones Industrial Average - thirty large U.S. companies that trade on the NYSE and NASDAQ. Nasdaq 100 - hundred biggest tech U.S. companies that are publicly traded. Standard & Poor 500 - five hundred biggest companies in the U.S. that are publicly traded. Russell 2000 - two thousand smaller companies that comprise the Russel 3000 index. Russell 3000 - three thousand biggest companies in the U.S. that are publicly traded. DAX 40 - forty biggest German companies that trade on the Frankfurt Exchange. Hang Seng Index - sixty biggest companies that trade on the Hong Kong Exchange. Seasonality and trends Indexes tend to move in cyclical trends and less often in trading ranges. They are less prone to the effects of calendar and industrial seasonality when compared to stocks and commodities. Change in components Since their inception many indexes have changed the composition of their underlying assets. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Index started as Dow Jones Transportation Average in 1896 and consisted of only twelve companies. These companies operated mainly in railroads, cotton, tobacco, gas and oil sectors. However, eventually new companies were added to the index until it reached the total number of thirty companies in 1928. Since then the composition of the index changed several times; although, the number of companies stayed the same. This concept of rebalancing indexes is common to many other indexes; and it usually occurs on a quarterly basis. Illustration 1.02 Picture above shows the monthly chart of the Nasdaq 100 Index (Ticker: NDX) between 1995 and 2006. Companies included in this index changed over time. Nowadays, the Nasdaq 100 index includes such companies as Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Tesla, etc. Source: www.tradingview.com If you have not read our previous articles on stocks and commodities, please feel welcome to do so. They are attached to this idea. Additionally, feel free to express your own thoughts and ideas in the comment section below. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by Tradersweekly
43
What is going on in the market..?All major indexes have reached new lows today and bounced back a little, Which shows sellers are strong..! on the other hand they bounce back a little and none of them even touched the middle of yesterday's candle, which shows buyers are not strong enough! I think any trader in order to be successful should have a predefined plan for trading! That plan must look like an algorithm code: a combination of 0,1, and, if, or..! It means: IF A, B, C... happened I will open the position! But he should not forget to monitor his position! So, IF X, Y, Z, ... happened, I will close my position! But, What if A, B, C, .. do not happen for a while? The answer is I will sit calmly and wait for the next opportunity..! In other words, A, B, C to happen! One of the biggest trading mistakes is not defining a "No-Trade Zone"! I think we are at the highest level of uncertainty in the market, in other words, "No Trade Zone". One question: Did you define your A, B, C,...X, Y, Z??? Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:RUTEducation
by Moshkelgosha
11
Some important questions & answers (for beginner investors)Today we prepared for you several questions and answers that might be helpful to new investors. Please feel free to post your own questions and answers in the comment section. What is technical analysis and why does it work? Technical analysis is a scientific discipline that analyzes investments by evaluating statistical data (usually price and volume). This method works because of fractal nature which represents the ability of same price patterns to appear across multiple different time frames independently. This applies also to patterns observable in oscillators, indexes and other technical tools. What trading systems are the best performing ones? Best performing trading systems are trend based. Purpose of such trading systems is to identify the trend and then „ride it“ – which means investing in its early stage and taking profits in its latter stage. Which time frame is the most reliable? Generally, bigger time frames are more reliable as opposed to smaller time frames. Though, patterns and trading signals usually take longer to develop when using a bigger time frame. Most common time frames are: 1-hour, 4-hours, daily and weekly. What is leverage? Is it a really fast way to make money? Leverage simply represents borrowing money in order to fund an investment. For example, when a trader uses leverage with ratio 1:10 and underlying asset moves by 1% then leveraged asset moves by 10% in the same direction. Leverage is definitely one of the possible ways to generate money fast. However, it is also a quick way to lose money. Should I use a leverage when I am new (unexperienced) investor? Use of leverage by new investors is pretty common as it represents an enticing opportunity to make money fast. However, in our opinion, an unexperienced investor should not use leverage at all. That is because leverage is very difficult to manage and its use by an unexperienced trader usually results in loss of capital. Is it possible to time exact market tops and bottoms? Timing exact market tops and bottoms is incredibly difficult even for an experienced trader. There are several technical tools at disposal of a technical analyst which he or she can use to indicate market reversal points. However, picking these exact spots is not necessary in order to turn profitable in trading. As mentioned previously, best performing trading systems are trend based. Such trading systems work by identifying trends and by exploiting them (without requirement to identify exact market top or bottom). What is diversification? Why should I implement it? Diversification is one of the possible ways to manage risk in the portfolio. It simply stands for diversifying capital into multiple different investments rather than focusing capital in a single investment. Proper diversification protects investor's capital from price fluctuations within particular market sectors. Additionally, it is crucial in order to build a long-term lasting portfolio. Should I invest in the stock market when it just reached all time high? Probably not. Usually, the market tends to pull back when it reaches a new all time high. Therefore, in our opinion it is not best to add to the long position just when a new all time high was reached by an asset. One of the best strategies in a strong bull market is to add to the long position when price drops and then sell the position once an asset reaches new all time high. Should I invest in an asset just because it fell 90% in value recently? Not necessarily. Fall of such high magnitude does not necessarily mean that the price trend will reverse. There may be various reasons why an asset fell by so much; and therefore, doing your own due diligence is highly advised before entering any trade. Is past performance of an asset indicative of its future performance? No. Past performance of an asset should not serve as a basis for predicting future performance of that same asset. Should I use options/other derivatives as a new trader? There is no restriction to use options as a new trader but derivatives in general are more complex instruments than stocks or bonds; additionally, their price is determined by numerous factors that an investor should be aware of. If a trader does not fully understand how some asset class behaves, then he or she should avoid such a particular asset class. Should I keep holding a losing position? It depends on the investor's own assumption but in general it is better to close positions that keep losing to prevent further losses and to be able to use capital somewhere else. I feel I haven’t made many trades in the recent past. What should I do? Trading is not about making enough trades but about generating profit. Sometimes there are not enough opportunities in the market; making too many trades could lead to entering positions that a trader is not fully comfortable with. Also too many trades reduce profit due to trading fees being stacked up. So if a trader can not find another opportunity to make a trade, the best solution is to take a “break” and to keep looking for the next opportunity rather than force himself or herself into trading. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade. This content serves solely educational purposes.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by Tradersweekly
116
Options flow predicting moves on Derivatives (Futures)Options have been and are an important instrument on the financial market for a trader trading Intraday Futures. Therefore, while exploring the mechanics of the option market over the last several months, as a result of work, indicators were created that load data from Quandl and then look for patterns that may herald a change of direction on the derivative market - in this case Futures Contracts. There are two main types of Options: CALL - allow their owner to buy a given product in the future at a predetermined price (Strike Price) PUT - allow you to sell this product at a predetermined price (Strike Price) By observing the market volumes of both types of Options, we can observe the sentiment of investors. The key factors are which volume (call or put) prevail in the volume and the dynamics of the volume - what is the trend on volume, whether the difference between them increases or decreases. In addition, the Put / Call Ratio analysis allows you to confirm or negate the signals from the Option volume. The Ratio indicator behaves inversely to the price movement - in the case of a bearish sentiment, we expect the ratio to increase, and in the case of bullish sentiment - the indicator should decrease. If the Ratio follows the price in the same direction, it is an anomaly. Of course, the mere observation of the Option volumes and the Put / Call ratio is not sufficient, as the Options Market is a much more complicated activity. It is worth including in the calculations such factors as Expiration Date, Bonus Amount, option type (In the Money, Out of Money or At the Money). Not each of the factors is equally important, therefore the key is additionally the appropriate selection of the weighting factors. For this purpose, due to the multitude of data, it is worth using Machine Learning, which I also do by saving the resulting data in a dataset in Quandl and displaying the data in TradingView using Pine Script. Below are some additional examples from recent sessions on ES showing the predictive nature of the Option sentiment, often preceding major movements in the ES index (during the spot session): First, from the left, the session from November 15 is shown and an opportunity to play Short. On the right, the session from November 16 and an opportunity to play the Long position this time. Session from November 10, where we first got the Bull's signal, and at the top we got a warning signal of traffic reversal and the possibility of entering Short: And one of my favorite moves on November 3:
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by skyline-trader
SPX'S Elliot. What's ABC- WXY- WXYXXZ = Coffee Espresso shots !THE ONLY NOTICABLE DIFFERECNE IS THE CONNECTION WAVE "X" & "XX" IN WHICH THEY CAN BE ANYTHIGN BUT AN EXPANDING TRIANGLE !!! Double and Triple ZigZag Rules: Double (DZ) and Triple (TZ) Zigzags are similar to Zigzags, and are typically two or three Zigzag patterns strung together with a joining Wave called an x Wave, and are corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Zigzags, Double Zigzags and Triple Zigzags are also known as Zigzag family patterns, or 'Sharp' patterns. Double Zigzags are labeled w-x-y, while Triple Zigzags are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double Zigzag is illustrated below. Wave W must be a Zigzag. Wave C of W cannot be a failure. Wave X can be any corrective pattern except an ET. Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price. Wave X must retrace at least 20% of W by price. The gross price movement of Wave X must be less then 3 times the price movement of Wave W. Wave X must be no more than 5 times Wave W by time. Wave Y must be a Zigzag Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price. Back to back and double failures are not allowed. Wave Y must be greater than 90% of Wave W by price, and Wave Y must be less than 5 times Wave W by price. Wave Y must be no more than a factor of 5 times either Wave X or W in price or time. Wave C of Y cannot be a failure. Wave XX can be any corrective pattern except an ET. Wave XX must be smaller than Wave Y by price. Wave XX must retrace at least 20% of Y. The gross price movement of Wave XX must be less than 3 times the gross movement of Wave W. Wave Z must be a Zigzag Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price. Wave Z must be less than 5 times Wave Y by price, and must also be less than 5 times Wave W by price. Wave Z must be no more than a 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in both price and time. Double and Triple ZigZag Guidelines: The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than Wave W by price. Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern. Wave X is usually less than 70% of Wave W by price. Wave X will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave W. Wave X is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave W. Wave X is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave W. Wave X is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave W. The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price. The time taken by Wave X is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave 1. Wave Y is next most likely to be equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of W by price. Expect the time taken by Wave Y to be between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of shortest of Wave W and X. Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern. Wave XX is usually less than 70% of Wave Y by price. Wave XX will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave Y. Wave XX is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave Y. Wave XX is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave Y. Wave XX is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave Y. The largest Wave within Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price. Wave Z is most likely to be about equal to Wave Y by price. Wave Z is next most likely to be about equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave Y. The largest Wave in Wave Z is usually less than Wave Y by price.
SP:SPXEducation
by samitrading
H&S Pattern can be either horizontal or sloping up/down neckline ( """ The pattern consists of a head (the second and the highest peak) and 2 shoulders (lower peaks) and a neckline (the line which connects the lowest points of the two troughs and represents a support level). The neckline may be either horizontal or sloping up/down. The signal is more reliable when the slope is down rather than up. The pattern is confirmed when the prices broke below the neckline after forming the second shoulder. Once it happens, the currency pair should start a downtrend. So, a sell order is put below the neckline. To get the target measure the distance between the highest point of the head and the neckline. This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline. source FBS
SP:SPXEducation
by samitrading
4
Breaking down a movementMy goal is to help others see the reason behind my analysis and hopefully they learn something new or at least review what they already know I believe to be successful in the analysis regardless of the timeframe you should breaking it down to pieces and manage it piece by piece: 1- A bull trend is a period of time in financial markets when the price of an asset or security rises continuously. 2- A sideways trend is the horizontal price movement that occurs when the forces of supply and demand are nearly equal. This typically occurs during a period of consolidation before the price continues a prior trend or reverses into a new trend. A sideways price trend is also commonly known as a "horizontal trend." 3- A breakout refers to when the price of an asset moves above a resistance area, or moves below a support area. Breakouts indicate the potential for the price to start trending in the breakout direction. For example, a breakout to the upside from a chart pattern could indicate the price will start trending higher. 4- A pullback is a temporary reversal in the price action of an asset or security. The duration of a pullback is usually only a few consecutive sessions. ... Pullbacks can provide an entry point for traders looking to enter a position when other technical indicators remain bullish. 5- Resistance occurs where an uptrend is expected to pause temporarily, due to a concentration of supply. Reference Articles: www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com Now let's review my trading setup published last week:
TVC:SPXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
Global events - the last 18 Months. I recently posted a timeline of Bitcoin events as well as record several videos on the current Elliott Wave moves around Bitcoin, DXY and a few Forex pairs. Here’s a link to the Bitcoin timeline; Looking back at the last 18 months or so now, I wanted to cover some of the significant events that have taken place, which would have had some (but not as much as you think) of an effect on the Elliott counts as a whole. For those of you not familiar with Elliott, there is a link in the ‘related ideas’ section covering the basics. So, let’s go back in time; Brexit announced back in 2016 – carried through and completed in 2020. Thus, kicking off the year with a fair size event, the global markets not quite sure what the fall out would be, where the damage would come and of course if there where to be profitable positions to obtain. An awful lot of hesitation & fear seen in the market. Jump forward to the next big event; although COVID-19 was technically pre 2020, the real effects did not start to emerge until early 2020 when the world went into LOCKDOWNS, crazy mayhem soon followed and has not really disappeared since. After the world starts to go mad! A few other things happen during this period! - Oil goes negative for the first time in HISTORY - Gold hits $2,000 - S&P creates an all-time high If this was not enough to cause global confusion, we also had an interesting period in the United States. All though there are plenty of other events that have shaped this last 18 months or so, you can clearly see with so much – the charts will be a little more sporadic, a little harder to read. So, although methods such as Elliott and Wyckoff are still very powerful. Even Wyckoff Schematics got a good run in the social media platforms! (Probably kicked that off in March) 😉 Interesting times ahead - @TradingView community, take care of yourself and keep in mind! It’s been a crazy 18-months, 2 years! **(This is not a trade idea, even a bias - it's just highlighting how insane these last 18-months have been) For education on Wyckoff and Elliott - see my bio below; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
TVC:DXYEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
Why the S&P500 Micro Futures is one of the best markets to trade Hey Traders so today I wanted to show you a great market to consider trading the S&P500 Micro Futures. I think it is one of the easiest markets to learn vs the Forex and others. It offers great leverage and really good risk vs reward. Of course futures are different from stocks, crypto and forex. The are considered high risk because of the volatility and leverage. But definitely I think they are a good asset class to consider adding to every traders portfolio with the right risk management. Plus this market is a great way to start capturing all the great gains that the stock market has had in the last 10 years. As long as the bull market continues I think this market will remain strong. Enjoy! Trade Well, Clifford
CME_MINI:MESU2021Education
by TradeTheIndex
The Importance of Understanding the Commodities MarketIn this educational post, I'll be explaining the reason why both investors and traders need to understand the commodities market. The commodities market is a market in which raw, hard, and soft commodities are traded. Examples of commodity assets include gold, oil, wheat, grain, copper, and even livestock. While these aren't commonly traded markets among retail investors, understanding assets within the realm of commodities can provide an edge in trading and investing. Benefits to Investors - The primary reason that investors needs to understand the commodity market is because it helps provide an overall picture of the entire financial market. - For instance, in the case of Nickel, Copper, Zinc, and other industrial metals, the price action differs depending on the market cycle, and certain metals are sensitive to, and heavily affected by specific industries. - Popular commodities like Gold and Oil’s price action reflects the overall market trend and sentiment. - As such, a retail investor with a deep understanding in commodities is capable of looking at the stock market from a different angle. - Secondly, understanding commodities provides a huge advantage in terms of portfolio management. - How 'well' you have invested, isn't simply determined by your annual return. - Your sharpe ratio (your return divided by the volatility) tells a more accurate story. - In order to succeed as a retail investor, you need to focus on increasing your sharpe ratio, or your risk adjusted return. - And the best way to do so, is to diversify, specifically by looking at the correlation between certain assets. - There are a plethora of assets in the commodities market that provide a great hedge / means of diversification against the stock market. - Leveraging this knowledge will help investors design a portfolio that provides them great risk-adjusted-returns. Benefits to Traders - The commodities market can be a great opportunity for traders, as long as they spend their time getting used to the market. - Normally, when the stock market is overbought, or when it demonstrates sideways action, traders often make the mistake of overtrading. - Traders enter positions at suboptimal levels, because they have no option but to trade at the stock market. - However, understanding the commodity market gives them an edge. The best analogy to explain this, is like playing online poker. - When playing poker, the player waits for good hands to appear, so he can make a bet in his favor. - When he plays online poker, he can have multiple games going on at once, and play the game where he gets the upper hand. - In the same vein, when a trader knows how to trade commodities, instead of waiting for a good entry in the stock market, he can simply trade assets within the commodities market. - If you think stocks are overvalued, there’s a chance for you to move onto gold, silver, oil, or even industrial metals. - You can take a look at multiple assets, and find one that has a good risk/reward ratio right now. Conclusion The commodity market is a market that is huge in size, yet often overlooked my many, if not most retail traders and investors. However, understanding which assets are traded, their price action (in relation to other assets), can help both investors and traders acquire an edge.
Editors' picks
TVC:USOILEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
7
Importance of diversification across asset classesAny feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :) In this post, we have attempted to cover the importance of portfolio diversification. To drive our point home, we have taken a 2-year reference and divided it into 3 parts: Pre-pandemic : January 2019 to 10th Feb 2020 Height of the pandemic : Feb 2020 to 23rd March 2020 Post pandemic : 30th March 2020 till present The 3 classes of asset that we included in this analysis are: Cryptocurrency- ETH Stocks- S&P 500 Commodity- Gold Pre-pandemic period: ETH was on a bull run as were other major crypto currencies. It shot up more than 125% during that period. The S&P 500 index was up by 38.5% during the same period, while the precious commodity, Gold, rose by 24.15%. At the height of the pandemic: It was a testing time for the diversification of portfolio. Holding any particular asset class and not diversifying at all, proved to be a disaster for many naive investors. ETH dropped by approximately 65%. The S&P 500 index tanked almost 33%, while Gold, considered to be the safest asset, lost 12%. Post-pandemic period: It was one of the massive bull-runs in the history of bull runs. Patient investors who entered into the markets at the height of the pandemic saw their wealth growing multiple times. Moreover, with the Central banks around the world printing currencies at a furious pace, the only way to beat inflation was to invest in high alpha generating assets. ETH shot up almost 1800% during this period, which is a 18x return. The S&P 500 shot up over 94%, while Gold went up by a meagre 21%. Considering the returns and the risk over these 3 periods, it can be stated with absolute conviction that the need for diversification is supreme. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mudrex
2
A "Welcome to" Pinescript codingThis simple idea is an intro to @TradingView & @PineCoders Nothing fancy or complex, if you are already coding - you can skip this. simple MA build walk through & adding a second MA. If you want to get into coding, then here's the basic introduction. FYI - I am not a coder, 21 years trading experience and know a bit about the instruments - but new to actual coding, especially in Pine. Hope it helps someone! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
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COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
49
The Basics - Trend LinesTrend lines are used in technical analysis to define an uptrend or downtrend. Traditionally, uptrend lines are made by drawing a straight line through a series of ascending higher troughs (lows). ... With downtrends, trend lines are formed by drawing a straight line through a series of descending lower highs. In an uptrend, the “imaginary line” acts as support and in a downtrend, the line connecting the points at swing highs become the resistance. Although we can go into what and why – the logic for trend line, is to keep it simple. It’s another subjective area and people like to spot patterns. It’s human nature. This shows in it's most basic form the concept of a trend line. In an uptrend we want to see, higher highs as well as higher lows as shown below; And in a down trend, the opposite is true - Lower highs & lower lows to create the pattern as per main image of this post. Many other techniques and indicators use this concept, and perhaps the most famous being Elliott waves. Here's a post on Elliott basics; This then all points back to Dow Theory - where markets have 3 cycles and 3 waves (another lesson for another time) in short; Here's also a post covering the Dow basics; You can also use Moving averages as part of "working out the trend" And her is another simple guide to MA's (moving Averages) We thought it would be interesting to post, more of a beginners post that our usual stuff. Hope this helps some of the newer traders. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVEElliott Wave Post 2; after writing the first post I have received some questions. So I thought it easier to write a follow-up post here showing some tricks. To be clear, I am not an Elliottition as a whole, I use it as part of a wider strategy on the monthly and weekly timeframes. But also we have access to an automated Elliott wave tool. The Elliott wave logic still works today and with a couple of little tricks, you will be able to use to help forecast potential target zones. Elliott can be very subjective and the saying goes "if you ask 10 Elliott wave traders where to plot the waves, you will get 9 different answers" So just like everything else, you need to use it wisely and not rely solely on it. Again to reiterate - this is not a full-out lesson, there's more to learn on the topic. But these little tips will help you along the way, even to get into the overall concept a little quicker. Step 1 - if you have this in your mind, you will be able to start the process for an overall measure. Major rule Wave 2; If you can identify a wave 2 but it is less than 50% of wave 1 - be careful as it could create a double bottom (in an uptrend) and dip a little lower before moving up. with 1 & 2 identified you can start working on estimations for 3. Knowing wave 3 is usually 1.618 or 2.618 - will give you a good idea of where price is heading. Again you could use things like Stochastic or RSI to assist the directional bias when you feel you have identified the 2. Let's go all out - let's say we have the perfect setup... We can also say that a lot of the time, wave 4 is around 38.2% of wave 3 and often no greater than 50% (whereas, wave 2 is often more than 50%) Then lastly, if we know a potential target for 3 (maybe draw 2 target levels to test) we can use that with 2 levels for the 4 move 382 and 50 as a rule of thumb. You can see what works best for the instrument you are trading. How they play out with backtesting and so on. It would be great to get some additional comments from traders who use Elliott every day, even from new traders only now getting into Elliott waves. Any additional tips or trips from the pro's for the newer traders? If you are new to Elliott waves - see the related post below for the basic concept. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
35
How To Lose Money With CONFUSION (timeframe mixing) The issue for many new traders is understanding the correlation between timeframes. We often get caught up in indicators, news hype, chat room posts, and various other things. One of the biggest challenges I see when talking to new traders is simply the lack of "experience" in reading multiple timeframes. This causes confusion and even self-doubt. The issue with the internet being so vast is there is a lot of info - but what do you go with & why? In this post I have tried to "dumb it down" - the simple idea is to pick your timeframes based on your trading style. Now if work gets in the way and you need to trade end of day or even swing (Longer-term) then really, you shouldn't stress so much about a 15 minute candle. A lot can happen throughout the day. But on the opposite side of the spectrum, if you are sat in front of your screen every minute the market is open. (scalping) then trying to work out what the monthly is doing whilst you hold a trade for an hour is not going to affect your trade (in general). To give you a great example of this - I trade COT data as it's swing, with Monthly and weekly bias. I will have a mentee say something like "COT is a buy, but the price has dropped". Yes if you're looking at the 4-hour candle. If you think what institutional players can manage in terms of drawdown, especially using hedging techniques. It's far greater than the guy investing £5k of savings into Bitcoin. If a hedge fund buys Bitcoin at 45k and the price drops to 22.5k - the likelihood is they have a hedged position & will be buying it all back at fair value. Whereas Mr £5k has lost some sleep & half of his capital - bailed, only to see the price shoot back up above his original entry. You think of someone like Elon Musk - if his entry of a Billion Dollars was at 40k (example) and price drops to 20k, he has a paper loss of 500m for sure, it will hurt. But again if the Tesla share price drops from 800 to 700, he has a paper loss of (say 20 Billion) - a 500m loss on paper is less of a concern. *** You get the picture. Investors & traders know that things don't just moon! they have dips, impulsive moves and so on. So take the charts into account - You have an idea of what timeframes to pick based on your own personal availability or your style you have already identified. As a scalper it's easy to use 4 hour or even a 1 hour candle for your bias - a 15minute for a local area of interest & an entry on a 1m - 5m chart. (example only). If you trade swing trades (depending on the overall time & expectations) a weekly bias, a daily interest and a 4hour trigger could be what you look for. Here are some examples; In these examples - all I have done is used 1 tool. This is only to show the idea - If stochastic is up then I want to be Bullish, if down I'll consider Bearish moves. Keep in mind this could be anything from above/below a moving average, a key price level or a magnitude of other things. Even other tools like RSI for example. Example of step down The idea is this gives you a directional bias. Then we look at the area of interest. And finally - we want to look down on the next timeframe for the trigger (entry) Traders can easily get confused with one timeframe saying one thing and the next timeframe up or down saying something else. If you can treat it like a tick sheet, you can step down with confidence and work on a strategy favouring your directional bias & that's in confluence with the time period & your expectations. This really is an oversimplified breakdown. Just to give a general idea. Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
How to Trade a Scythe Pattern (SPY used as example)I see these all the time on 5-m charts. I attribute them to algos trading shares with each other. The way price action advances and declines (and the speed), leads me to believe computers performing high speed day trading with one another. That aside, be on the look out for them! They can sometimes be a wonderful tool to predict a large price movement in short time. I've included a 5-m chart of this pattern below. Refer to it after reading: To trade the Scythe Pattern: SHORT when you see this pattern after an uptrend or high (like the example illustrated below - SPY 2.17.2021), go LONG when you see the inverted scythe at the bottom of a downtrend or low. I treat it as a modified cup & handle. I use the measurement from the base of the scythe beard (lower left edge) to the top of the blade (see rulers in image below) I regularly see this pattern break out above the tip (fake out) before ripping in a cascade fashion lower. Look for this pattern where you see price cascade on lower time frames (1-10m). The tighter the price action in the scythe blade, the more accurate the results. I have not tested this pattern on higher time frames, but I am currently doing so with some hourly/daily/monthly charts I've identified. More often than not , I spot this at a high and realize that I should either avoid going long or open a short. This pattern wrapped up the trading session on 2/16/21, predicting the gap down to follow. Again, the dynamics of the scythe are much more clear on lower time frames. So add the scythe pattern to your tool chest and let me know how you like it. Enjoy!
Editors' picks
AMEX:SPYEducation
by SLOPolarBear
29
The Secret of Successful FEAR INDICATORSThe truth is - Indicators are only what you make them. 9 out of 10 indicators lag. The rest are used by so many people that it creates a type of unconscious bias. And above all else can clog up your chart as above! That's not to say indicators are pointless - far from it, it's more about creating a bias and using indicators or chart patterns as a confirmation instead of guidence in and out of trades. Especially in the COVID era, the markets are not behaving in any form of regular form. In the last 12 months, we have had the virus to deal with, we have had one of the craziest transitions of Presidents, In the UK - Well, Brexit. It doesn't get much crazier than this. Unconscious biases , also known as implicit biases, are the underlying attitudes and stereotypes that people unconsciously attribute to another person or group of people that affect how they understand and engage with a person or group. in trading terms, this is how indicators and groups of people that use specific indicators. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet when it comes to strategies and indicators. You will find tools that work in some market conditions, and not so well in other circumstances. A lot of information you can get from an indicator is actually in the chart. *as a pure example you can spot things like Imbalances from candles prior to current price action. as per the example. As an institutional investor, it's easy to understand the fear and the bias of retail traders. You only need to look at sentiment from companies like Oanda and IG index - you often find as trends rally 60% of retail positions are Bearish. The reason for this is 75% of retail trading is based on indicators and strategies like breakouts, trend line touches, and moving average crossovers. Measured using Fibonacci levels. Which then makes it easy for the experienced operators to see order blocks and go hunting for stop losses. If you look at simple indicators like RSI - A lot of what it shows can be visualised in the chart itself. Now I don't want to be fully negative to indicators - it's just understanding their value and not fearing the herd. It's not only indicators - patterns can either be complex and you need a mathimatical degree to pin them down to perfection (joke) and they can sometimes be somewhat subjective. Starting points, anchors, measurements etc. Fibonacci - an amazing tool with countless indicators using it in some way shape or form. But a lot of what makes it so accurate is the psychology underpinning the market moves. When you add fibs to charts, or measure using other tools and patterns or indicators - they create the levels based on entries and exits of many people at the same levels. I posted an idea recently on the market mindset (click image for full link)- The idea is that emotions can control the ups and downs of moves based on perfect entries, terrible entries, ideal exits are simple trades you wished you never took, ones that now look obvious looking back. So in short - tools cab be useful. But you should not need to be dependant on them. Especially with market conditions the way they are currently. To summarise - Once you have your bias you shouldn't rely on indicators nor the group chat to execute your trade plan. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
How to Spot Blow-off Tops - ES1!Here are 3 blow-off tops and 1 failed attempt which all occurred in the last 7 months. Successful completions are marked in solid black. The failed attempt is shown in dotted black. On all 4 attempts, the price accelerated upwards to different degrees. Each target can be roughly measured based on the price move. Notice how the failed blow-off begins closer to a price bottom than the successful ones did. Volume was either steadily increasing or declining during successful blow-offs, compared to the unsuccessful attempt when volume was not clearly trending. ROC (momentum) was increasing with all 4 attempts. The blow-offs were successful when momentum was at 0 or positive at the start of each blow-off. Disclaimer: This is my opinion. This is not advice. Trading involves risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by ValkyrieBlue