Mex Shorts rekt? | Artificial move | More liquidity on downside Good morning TView,
Hope y'all liked my analysis. As you can tell that I still believe we're going to ultimately move down but the 5 wave structure may play out with a max target at $7000 as I've mentioned before. We have to see if our resistance turned supports will hold though. Given the nature of that artificially created move yesterday, I'd wait to see price create a higher low before even trusting a trade. Let's see what happens.
Cheers!
Bitcoin-btcusd
E wave drop | Max 8500 | Down goes BTCHope you guys enjoyed my analysis. If you did not get to read my post from yesterday, read below. Enjoy and have a wonderful day. If you have any questions, please post them. I love feedback, criticism, recommendations etc. Cheers!
--------------------
The formula for the next bull run:
1. Make exchanges safer for investors
2. Regulation needs to come in
3. Strong catalyst such as starting ETFs or government(s) moving money into crypto
4. Clean up fraud and manipulation in the market
5. Mass adoption and use from retail consumers and corporations
6. Panic + capitulation to bring price down significantly
7. More direct fiat on-ramps built for the novice retail consumer to get in on crypto
8. Get weak hands out of the market and put BTC -4.36% and alts in the hands of strong investors who believe in this space
If we check off all the 8 points above fairly successfully, I believe we are ready for the next bull run.
When will this happen? Just a guess: If the past is any indication anywhere from 3 months to another 9 months.
What will be the bottom? Just a guess: Somewhere between the $3500-4500. I came up w/ this range because BTC -4.36% has a history of retracing 80-90% from its previous bull cycle beginning price. Also, there is significant support around this range as well as the 100 MA (weekly).
Please see my post here:
My opinion is the bottom for Bitcoin -4.36% will not be a straight drop and then reverse (V bounce). I think this market will bleed to the point where people just lose all hope and this takes a long time to accomplish. Whether this is 3 more months or another full year. It will happen eventually.
I am bullish in BTC -4.36% in the long-run but for now I am still bearish and have been since Feb/March.
Fun prediction: I think we over the next few months we go to low $5000 and break under that 786 fib mentioned in my analysis above. We spent the next few months under this level and finally start the next bull run around March 4, 2019. How did I come up with that date? Read Jake Chervinsky's BTC -4.36% ETF decision calculation on his Twitter page.
Bitcoin Bears Backhanded And Why A Second May Be ComingToday Bitcoin exploded higher up over 10% at multiple points throughout the day. As I'm writing this it's off it's highs by a little, currently trading at around 8.31%. With a little room before the next major area of resistance, I think we may see another 4-6% move in BTC before things start to get dicey. Around 7800 we have the confluence of Fibonacci Extension, a long-term downtrend couple with moving average resistance...it's where the rubber meets the road. It's the first time in a while that it look like the bear market may finally be coming to an end, but I think it's a little too early to tell. Using USDTBTC as a great inverse indicator, you can see it too looks like it has 4-6% lower before it finds support. Another crypto market internal I've been using lately is BNB which has been slowly selling off for nearly the entirety of the recent rally in Bitcoin , Ethereum and the rest of the crypto market. There are a lot of good signs popping up for the next bull run, but I'm not ready to dive back in head first just yet
Elliott Wave Analysis:BTCUSD Bears Are Not Done Yet; Room For 5kGood morning traders,
After recent developments on bitcoin I decided to updated you in video as it appears that we are still in downtrend and that this weakness may continue to a new low once again.
There will be time to buy, but just not yet.
GH
The Chart Pattern On Ethereum Everyone Is Looking AtRight now I think everyone sees the same thing: A big ole wedge setting up on ETHUSD...now I hate to burst your bubble, but I don't think it's ready to head higher just yet. As we speak Ethereum, Bitcoin and the rest of the market after a rather quiet day has started to sell into the last hour of the session. We're at a pretty key decision point here in the markets and with multiple Squeezes coiled with Bearish momentum, I wouldn't be surprised if the bull's bubble's are burst yet again.
Bitcoin - how to lose your money - demonstration of FOMOThis is on BTCUSD on the Daily time frame. I get right into my own psychology and explain what I'm feeling terms of FOMO.
I point out how the FOMO mentality causes people to lose big money. I've put on a paper trade, to explain this.
Note that ESMA and the NCA's have pointed out that:
... trading across different EU jurisdictions shows that 74-89% of retail accounts typically lose money on their investments , with average losses per client ranging from €1,600 to €29,000.
Did you get that? if you're a new trader your chance of losing a substantial part of your account is up to 90%!!
We're talking about serious risks in all trading. But where is the risk coming from? It's about a majority of traders having a psychological framework that cannot cope with chaos and uncertainty.
Loads of traders are preoccupied with winning a single trade or not missing what they think is a good opportunity. They're largely influenced, as well by big media and 'forum talk'.
Profitability depends on a consistent approach, avoiding the lure of bandwagons heading in one direction, missing on what turns out to be 'good trades', but controlling loss (the only real control we have).
Just to be clear - I have pointed out the dangers. I have not said that people should not enter on Bitcoin. I actually said if they want to do so, it's better with a carefully managed risk on a much lower time frame. Nothing in here is advice, even if you think of it as such.
I predict nothing.
BTCUSD / Bitcoin - 2 bearish short selling opportunitiesAs I predicted in my last video, bitcoin hammered down through the pennant support after a very weak and unconvincing small bullish rise in price. You may have already went short at a break of the pennant at around $7250 and are now solidly in profit. If not, do not dismay as these pennants often times offer "2nd chance entries". Very often in breaks of a pennant price will pull back to the level-of-breakout and retest. What this would look like with bitcoin is price pulling back to $7250 and re-testing. What we would want to do is watch for any bearish price action signal off of this $7200 level such as a large bearish pin bar, 2 bar reversal, double top, etc. That would then give us the signal we need to get short for the next leg down. The next major support level is 6,000 and a common sense level to cash out on profits. A second possible scenario is price dropping aggressively and not retesting the pennant breakout but rather crashing right down through $6000. In this case we have the same things to watch for which is price to eventually reach exhaustion and begin pulling back up. We would want to watch for price to pull back to the $6,000 range and look for bearish candlestick signals to get short for the next leg down to $5,000.
Change of perspective: Maybe Bitcoin is dyingMy probability estimate for the south is 51% on a 12H to 8H time frame. My estimate is based on my own analysis and perspective.
I changed my mind based on new evidence and what I think is a more robust perspective.
It would be great to hear other perspectives. That's how we learn. Share and learn. I'm not here to be right or to make predictions etc.
I urge all traders not to be influenced just by my perspective. You must plan your trades and trade your plans according to your own methodology.
For more of a write up see here .
BTCUSD - Bearish Daily invalidated w/ bullish inverse H&SIn this video I provide a follow up analysis to the daily bearish pin bar setup that formed yesterday and look at some bullish patterns forming on the hourly. Because we are still in a bearish trend on the daily, but have bullish signals on the hourly, this is the time to remain neutral until the markets give clear direction
Overnight the bearish pin bar setup was invalidated. That means price broke above the high of the candle and it is no longer a valid signal. Prudent price action traders were waiting on the sidelines for price to break below the low of the bearish pin bar. Because that never happened we should not have entered a short trade and avoided an sort of losses. This is an example of why it is critical we stick to the cardinal rules of price action/candlestick trading 1)Only take trades that form off of key support and resistance levels 2)Only trade high quality, obvious, nicely formed patterns, 3)Only enter a trade once the pattern has been broken out of. There is no such thing as a short cut to profitability, and you will not make more money by breaking the rules. Be patient and disciplined!
BTCUSD And EOS: More Upside After PullbacksHey, hey, Hey!
How are you everyone?
After a month or so we have seen a very nice and strong push up on some cryptocurrencies. EOSUSD moved very nice since last update and it appears that there can be more gains ahead. I am watching levels around 14-15.
BTCUSD also recovered nicely recently, and more upside can be seen, either after a flat or after zigzag based on two different wave interpretations. Support on that one is at 8k-8500
If you like the video, please give me a feedback in commentary below or by clicking like button.
Trade well!
Grega
Ready to juggle some knives? BTC/ market updateGood evening, folks. A rare article by Roti has appeared! I honestly am not making these often these days, as I’ve got a lot of things going on. But from time to time I do post some updates over on the Discord so do check my status update on Tradingview for the link to that.
I won’t repeat much of what was said in the video, but essentially we’re getting a tightening pattern of consolidation in BTC with some correlation with the S&P500. The recent upswing was partially riding on good earnings from the tech sector and I think there were enough crypto FOMO articles to balance out the FUDicles. Other pairs are correlating with BTC though that is occasionally breaking down. LTC is a laggard while ETH continues to test an uptrend with more strength than BTC. BNB is doing the same but I’d be cautious of a correction.
Focusing on BTC, we lost the higher lows on the 15min as the weekend approaches and volume drops off and stabilizes.
The video hit the 10 minute mark before I could tell you the specific areas to watch on BTC so here they are:
With a breakdown of the 1hr/ 15min channel of 9266, I am expecting a return to the support of 8977 though we may dump as low as the 23.6% fib zone (8914). We now have resistance at 9320 with a 61.8% fib zone supporting it. In the event of a bull break there’s a psychological resistance of 9500 overhead, a bull break target has a pretty solid wall around 9530 with a 78.6% fib zone supporting that.
Here’s a 4h view:
Roti out!
--
This has been for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice.
Bitcoin: Bullish BAT that is working + Smaller Bearish BAT SO the BAT from previous video (see below) seems to be working which is nice to see. In the video I also mention a smaller Bearish Bat that looks to be setting up and how that might impact price this week.
I also mention that if price does turn at 78.6 that could be the B point of a Butterfly before price moves down to C which I will then look to trade up to D.
I will update at things progress.
More videos to come now that I have new laptop :)
The importance of admitting you were wrong. I was wrong. Sorry.Hello.
I have changed my background, I realized the full white one just blasts the human eye. Better go for something more easy on the eyes.
I have to make a 180° on my previous bear position. In the trading & investing world, it is important to realize you were wrong and stay humble.
If you don't, that's when you end up destroying your account. From what I saw I believed it very likely we drop all the way to 3500 before going to a bull market.
I don't know if I said this exactly, but I at least might have led people to believe this.
I was wrong. This is not likely. I zoomed out and saw what was happening around me, and I now strongly believe I was wrong.
I am a bear no more. Believing we are going to reproduce 2014 crash and bounce on whatever trendline because it "looks similar" is stupid (I already posted an idea about this).
I have now turned to an Orca. You know, the second biggest predator on the planet, and the most cruel animal on the planet, they love to torture their prey for hours before eating it.
It's over. Bubble is about to pop.
I will first show the graph for the short term. I guess that's what we're going to do, but that doesn't matter, I will next show what will happen long term.
And it is not pretty. There's going to be blood in the streets and I'm not speaking metaphorically.
A death cross will happen tonight, unless the bulls can push the price to 17000$. There's probably some of them that think it's possible.
I also forgot to show the weekly MA 10, yet another resistance in the area. We are still following the usual bubble pattern and it's looking like 2014, I just think this time it will be worse. I'll explain later. There's so much data I don't know if I can throw it out all at once.
I wanted to say, at my workplace there's this programmer guy, midly shy guy, just your average programmer I guess, back in early december when I started working closer to him he was pretty euphoric alwyas smiling laughing and extroverted I was wondering why he liked me so much gay or something?
Well he started isolating himself 2 months ago "to focus on work" and complaining more and more and working long hours, and now, haven't seen him for 3 weeks he's having "medical" issues. After the double top to 11k when we went down he started being isolated and below 9k that's when he just vanished.
I guess he's one of the victims. I hope for his health we crash soon? I guess? So he can sell, lose his money maybe, but at least he's free.
Or maybe he sold and then bought back in on the "back to normal".
In a while, we will get the suicide stories, the divorces and homeless people, there will be a ton of them.
People are extremely stupid. The more something goes up, the more idiots put everything they have in and get lucky, the more the next people will put in.
There has already been suicides.
But it will get worse. Much, much worse. South Korea is going to be a bloodbath. Their "millenial" population was already deep in shit, but boy oh boy it's going to get worse.
They thought crypto was the miracle magical thing that will give every one free magical money. It will end up being hell. Their doom.
I'm betting on hundred of suicides at the VERY LEAST.
ONE thing can save the bagholders now. A very evil person or group with alot of money that pumps crypto (not even sure it'll work out) to scam at a higher price, more people. It would end even more badly... But if they get caught what would happen to them would be worse than Mussolini Ghadaffi or 'Abd al-Ilah from Iraq.
Let's zoom out and see where we are now:
We have visited the long term investor average buy price twice, just like in 2014, and they have supported Bitcoin. The second time, we dug deep and found very strong support, bounced 100% to a double top (again).
I will continue in an update.
Fractal Strat 2 | BNBUSDT, BTCUSDT Binance | quick flipsHere’s a quick look at what I’m seeing on BTCUSDT and BNBUSDT on Binance. We’re continuing to get sort of sideways overall bearish price action, not many patterns are breaking bullish in a predictable manner at the moment, so secure your profits and take losses early. We’re in oversold bounce territory, but be careful.
Happy trading! Roti out.
--
This has been for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice.
Watchlist Update 34 | BTC flag evolves, key areas to watch on 4HHello everyone, today BTC is forming a flag on the 4h and it will either be a symmetrical triangle or an ascending triangle, we need more time for it to play out. In the video I describe ideal entries and stop losses, as well as how to set your own stops and trail them as needed. There are some key levels to break for the bears, one being 8088.4. Resistance for the bulls a bit longer term may be 9067.09
Happy trading! Roti out.
--
This has been for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice.
Watchlist Update 33 | BTC | Called this one a moment too late. Hey everyone, another daily short update on BTC. The market has been slowly downtrending with random pops in either direction of several hundred dollars/ USDT. Binance can't seem to handle even these spurts of activity that well, as the whole server freezes up. I can't imagine they'll fare well when the big money starts to return. Watch the video and see how the T.A. played out!
Roti out.
--
This is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice.