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NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Looking for Support NG: Natural gas NG contract may find its support at $2.6 level before moving higher into January contract. Prices dropped on warmer weather forecast Nov 18 -Dec 2. From technical perspective, NG is approaching oversold condition on 4 Hr chart. Lower prices are still possible due to bearish EIA report on Nov 19, as built is expected on the backdrop of low demand through November 20. However, roll into January contract Nov 22 - 25 may provide support for this transition into colder temperatures starting first week of December. Should NG start rolling into January as early as November 19, the dip may not be a slow as expected due to warm weather.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas testing support before moving higherFundamentals remain bullish. NG Natural gas futures are getting ready for December roll. November contract made a rally up to $3.1 on Wednesday and now is testing support at $2.97 - $2.95 level. A three dollar price level needs some digestion. To break above $3.2 December price will require support from colder weather forecasts and higher LNGs. Rise in seasonal demand is confirmed by weather forecasts for the second half of November and into December - January. Last week in October forecast has now turned colder predicting high national demand for the next week (NatGasWeather). Supply/demand balance is tightening. LNGs are at 8-8.5 bcf/d with expectations to increase to 10 bcf/d within the next a couple of weeks. Technicals are pointing toward a pullback before the roll begins and prices move higher. Currently, support for November contract is seen at $2.97-$2.95 level. Even if lower prices are seen on Friday, the dip may represent a buying opportunity before the roll.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by tradexchart
NATURAL GAS EXPLOSIVE ACCUMULATIONNatural gas has been under pressure for quite some time. As a whole, the energy sector has been beaten down severely and is historically cheap. I do not believe this will last. We can certainly have another big drop and even take out March lows but I wouldn't count on it. There are some BIG BIG BIG changes heading our way and we will look back on these days and regret not paying closer attention to energy.. Look at what's cheap.. look at what's expensive. BTW, we're at a critical junction here. There's a 3x hidden bear divergence that has been respected on weekly timeframe. I think this could push price lower. I sure hope so. But big picture is wildly explosive. here's a chart on XLE to XLK (energy compared to tech). What do you think is the better deal?
OANDA:NATGASUSD
by gghsusa
2
Holiday GasNatural Gas continues to show a build up of bullish price action. Linked below is a previous analysis on the winter contracts showing the target hit DEAD on. Being that winter is not here yet, it's very possible this pattern continues to play out to the upside. First. The most recent weather outlook now points to December being the coldest month which means the January contract is in focus. On the daily chart the price action continues to knock on the ceiling of resistance with several key indicators all flashing bullish signals. 1. Support at the 50 EMA 2. RSI breakout 3. MACD above zero with room to run Targets. The fibbonaci extensions map out objective targets. A big enough cold blast could easily send prices to the $4.20 level by Christmas. Which happens to line up almost perfectly with a macro fibonacci retracement from the 2018 highs to the 2020 lows. Are you bullish yet? Taking a step back looking at the weekly chart it looks even more bullish bouncing off both EMAs. My buy signal will be a break above the top of this weekly candle at 3.435 with a stop below last weeks candle. Trading is risky and should not be attempted by anyone.
FX:NGASLong
by lynaldendips
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Upside Potential vs. Bearish WeatherNatural gas NG is getting ready to roll into higher priced December contract, Oct 25-29. The upside potential on a roll is $3.2 price level vs. current $2.8. However, weather forecast is bearish for the rest of the week and into early November. LNGs are higher at 8 bcf/d, but Cameron facility and Sabine pass are still blocked and expected to stay that way for the next a couple of weeks. NGI predicts trough in demand later this week. NatGasWeather predicts low national demand Tue -Fri on warming in high consumption areas. November contract may dip toward expiration. Technical Indicators: MACD chart has formed a double bottom pointing to higher prices. RSI has potential for a move higher, but may also form an island top with a dip lower before going higher, should traders react negatively to bearish weather forecast for end of October - beginning of November. The Volume bars on a price chart (see circle on top chart) showed limited buying at $2.8 level. Support for November contract is seen at around $2.7 level. Some analysts see support at $2.595 - $2.572 levels, should weather models lose TDDs later in October. Higher prices on Monday afternoon were supported by cold shot over Plains and Rockies and trader optimism.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
Spooky GasTime to start looking for another spooky Halloween trade as the latter half of October brings in cold temps. Prices are now sitting near historically supportive levels and bullishly above the 200 week EMA, with the 50 curling up. A closer look at the 4hr chart shows prices are coiling up with the RSI in buying territory. Buying here. Targets 2.8 to 3.08 Longer term we can also see the Winter contracts are consolidating at the 50% retracement and the next targets would be the 61.8% and possibly the 78% level. Remember, December has been a "warmer than normal" month the last couple years so if this repeats there should be a nice pullback to take advantage of next month.
FX:NGASLong
by lynaldendips
NG, not Coal. Thanks!The big question is what is going on with Nat Gas this year??? The December(Z) contract is still coiling up in a wedge pattern and about to reveal the answer. A closer look at the bullish scenario... It's looking technically hopeful with the 200 Week EMA, $3.00 level, and the bottom of the wedge all lining up. Now the bearish scenario... The RSI could actually be showing that the strength of this trend is toast and it's possible the MACD is over-extended. It would be a good idea to keep a close watch for the whole thing to fall apart, just as bulls are piling in for an anticipated leg up. As of now I'll be looking to buy December(Z) again around $3.00 if a bounce is confirmed and it remains within the wedge pattern.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by lynaldendips
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Chart Forming a Top?Bullish factors: NG Natural gas price has been rallying for the past month reaching $2.5 level on increased consumption during summer months, improving LNG flows reaching 5.1 bcf/d in mid-August, and two tropical storms in the Gulf area threatening natural gas production. The fundamentals remain bullish going into mid September. Bearish factors: Production is steady at about 92 bcf/day, while consumption has been declining to 83 bcf/day lately on cooling temperatures. Two tropical storms, Marco and Laura, are not expected to produce substantial disruption to natural gas production, but may produce loss in demand due to cooling temperatures and power outages. Technical analysis: Divergence between price and volume is pointing toward a potential top. On a daily chart , RSI is above 70, approaching overbought territory. We have an unclosed gap at $2.77 level, which may be the next top. National demand is expected to be cooling going into September. Overall demand will be driven largely by LNG exports, which are expected to remain steady at around 5 bcf/day, 10-20% below levels seen in the fall of 2019. The forward curve seems to be pricing in a more robust recovery in demand than actually observed.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Chart is Forming a TopBullish factors: NG Natural gas price has been rallying for the past month reaching $2.5 level on increased consumption during summer months, improving LNG flows reaching 5.1 bcf/d in mid-August, and two tropical storms in the Gulf area threatening natural gas production. The fundamentals remain bullish going into mid September. Bearish factors: Production is steady at about 92 bcf/day, while consumption has been declining to 83 bcf/day lately on cooling temperatures. Two tropical storms, Marco and Laura, are not expected to produce substantial disruption to natural gas production, but may produce loss in demand due to cooling temperatures and power outages. Technical analysis: Divergence between price and volume is pointing toward a potential top. On a daily chart, RSI is above 70, approaching overbought territory. We have an unclosed gap at $2.77 level, which may be the next top. National demand is expected to be cooling going into September. Overall demand will be driven largely by LNG exports, which are expected to remain steady at around 5 bcf/day, 10-20% below levels seen in the fall of 2019. The forward curve seems to be pricing in a more robust recovery in demand than actually observed.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
Natural Gas - Winter ContractsWinter contracts for Natural Gas are already trading near the pivotal $3.00 level. If Winter this year turns out to be average prices will likely sell off towards $2.50 (the 200 Day EMA). However, if production continues to fall and Winter is cold enough, prices can break above $3.00 and complete the parabolic move that is forming. If the latter happens, I see prices for December(Z) contracts topping out around $3.10 - $3.30 February(F) I see topping out around $3.40 - $3.60 I'm looking for a buying opportunity on the December contract and praying for a cold November to sell it in.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by lynaldendips
Natural Gas - Winter 2020-21 UpdateOn June 3rd I posted my strategy for trading Natural Gas this coming Winter (linked below). As prices slowly drift lower, it looks like traders are beginning to accumulate long positions. I've opened a long position on the December(Z) E-mini contract and might add 1 or 2 more over the next couple months with the sell target up around $3.30ish. Will see how it plays out. I chose the December contract because the volume on the E-mini is extremely thin on the January and February contracts. +1 @ $2.76
NYMEX:NGZ2020Long
by lynaldendips
Tis the Season to be Gassing - Natural Gas is ready for a Boost I've been curiously watching natural gas for the past month on and off learning more and more about it. It has a season, mainly the winter months, but we do sometimes see spikes in the spring months. Gas has been in a really nice pattern for years on end and its finally shimmied its way back into the buy zone indicated by the green box below. I've found that when it hits this zone its only a matter of time before it jumps. How high will Natural Gas jump? Hard to say, but the last 2 spikes occurred within 2 years apart and the last was in 2018, so we may have a lucky year. However it has been sinking since 2014 hardcore, so the possibilities of height in the winter are hard to tell. Either way it is likely that gas will eventually make a decent penny for those that wish to hold long term into Nov/Dec to see if it sticks to an uptrend. Can gas go lower? Sure. In the next 2 weeks it might go lower if the dollar rises. But the estimate is that within 2 weeks there will be a rise from natural gas, likely the latest date being Aug 17th. So keep an eye out. ETFs for Natural Gas: BOIL (still official) / UGAZF (OTC, has been decommissioned in July, trade at your own risk)
N
by Harley_Drake
1
Natural Gas - Bought the DipNatural Gas prices got hammered this past week. There's too much supply and not enough demand however, prices are near the bottom of the trading range and Summer heat should give prices a boost soon. It's also worth mentioning that the Dollar DXY is trending lower and which is bullish for all commodities. Prices are breaking out of a downtrend so I've opened a long position on the September(U) contract. It's nearing the end of the month and the August(Q) contract will expire soon. +1 @ $1.725 ($QGU20)
NYMEX:NGU2020Long
by lynaldendips
Natural Gas - Buy the HeatHot weather will likely boost Natural Gas prices in the near term so I opened a long position after price broke above $1.80 again. $QG - E-mini Natural Gas Futures +1 @ $1.815 Sell Limit -1 @ $1.94 Additionally, the MACD is showing bullish momentum on the 4hr chart and prices are being supported by the 50 and 200 EMA. If price clears $1.83 I see the momentum taking it up to $1.94 at the very least and $2.04 at the most. Should prices fall I might buy more and average down my cost basis since I don't think prices will stay down for very long under these conditions. weather.com
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!Long
by lynaldendips
BOIL Logarithmic Since Inception Do Not Buy and HoldBOIL is designed to be used for short term trading and only truly tracks natural gas on a intraday basis. BOIL decays because it is a commodity ETF and leveraged ETF. Commodity ETFs have to roll futures contracts, natural gas is typically in contango causing BOIL to decay. Leveraged ETFs re-balance each day to maintain the leverage, re-balancing results in volatility decay. BOIL can be used for short term trading but as you can see by this chart should not be held for long periods of time. Do Not Buy and Hold
AMEX:BOIL
by Natural_Gas_Trader
Natural Gas - Summer 2020As of now, expecting lots of chop within a range between $1.50 and $1.83 all Summer. Supply is abundant and demand is slow however, bankruptcies from 25-year low prices will soon take chunks out of production and demand may have bottomed already. Hot weather forecasts in high demand states (the South and Northeast) should also pop prices. Risk to the downside is if New York starts locking down again, signalling more demand loss on the way. Trade strategy: Buy near the bottom of the range and sell near the top and/or on bounces from the 200 (4hr) EMA If there is a daily close below $1.50 or some kind of big push below that level I'll close all positions. Active trades ($QG Natural Gas E-Micro Futures): +1 @ $1.53
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!Long
by lynaldendips