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BOIL

NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Chart Forming a Top?Bullish factors: NG Natural gas price has been rallying for the past month reaching $2.5 level on increased consumption during summer months, improving LNG flows reaching 5.1 bcf/d in mid-August, and two tropical storms in the Gulf area threatening natural gas production. The fundamentals remain bullish going into mid September. Bearish factors: Production is steady at about 92 bcf/day, while consumption has been declining to 83 bcf/day lately on cooling temperatures. Two tropical storms, Marco and Laura, are not expected to produce substantial disruption to natural gas production, but may produce loss in demand due to cooling temperatures and power outages. Technical analysis: Divergence between price and volume is pointing toward a potential top. On a daily chart , RSI is above 70, approaching overbought territory. We have an unclosed gap at $2.77 level, which may be the next top. National demand is expected to be cooling going into September. Overall demand will be driven largely by LNG exports, which are expected to remain steady at around 5 bcf/day, 10-20% below levels seen in the fall of 2019. The forward curve seems to be pricing in a more robust recovery in demand than actually observed.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Chart is Forming a TopBullish factors: NG Natural gas price has been rallying for the past month reaching $2.5 level on increased consumption during summer months, improving LNG flows reaching 5.1 bcf/d in mid-August, and two tropical storms in the Gulf area threatening natural gas production. The fundamentals remain bullish going into mid September. Bearish factors: Production is steady at about 92 bcf/day, while consumption has been declining to 83 bcf/day lately on cooling temperatures. Two tropical storms, Marco and Laura, are not expected to produce substantial disruption to natural gas production, but may produce loss in demand due to cooling temperatures and power outages. Technical analysis: Divergence between price and volume is pointing toward a potential top. On a daily chart, RSI is above 70, approaching overbought territory. We have an unclosed gap at $2.77 level, which may be the next top. National demand is expected to be cooling going into September. Overall demand will be driven largely by LNG exports, which are expected to remain steady at around 5 bcf/day, 10-20% below levels seen in the fall of 2019. The forward curve seems to be pricing in a more robust recovery in demand than actually observed.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
Natural Gas - Winter ContractsWinter contracts for Natural Gas are already trading near the pivotal $3.00 level. If Winter this year turns out to be average prices will likely sell off towards $2.50 (the 200 Day EMA). However, if production continues to fall and Winter is cold enough, prices can break above $3.00 and complete the parabolic move that is forming. If the latter happens, I see prices for December(Z) contracts topping out around $3.10 - $3.30 February(F) I see topping out around $3.40 - $3.60 I'm looking for a buying opportunity on the December contract and praying for a cold November to sell it in.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ryan-snk
Natural Gas - Winter 2020-21 UpdateOn June 3rd I posted my strategy for trading Natural Gas this coming Winter (linked below). As prices slowly drift lower, it looks like traders are beginning to accumulate long positions. I've opened a long position on the December(Z) E-mini contract and might add 1 or 2 more over the next couple months with the sell target up around $3.30ish. Will see how it plays out. I chose the December contract because the volume on the E-mini is extremely thin on the January and February contracts. +1 @ $2.76
NYMEX:NGZ2020Long
by ryan-snk
Tis the Season to be Gassing - Natural Gas is ready for a Boost I've been curiously watching natural gas for the past month on and off learning more and more about it. It has a season, mainly the winter months, but we do sometimes see spikes in the spring months. Gas has been in a really nice pattern for years on end and its finally shimmied its way back into the buy zone indicated by the green box below. I've found that when it hits this zone its only a matter of time before it jumps. How high will Natural Gas jump? Hard to say, but the last 2 spikes occurred within 2 years apart and the last was in 2018, so we may have a lucky year. However it has been sinking since 2014 hardcore, so the possibilities of height in the winter are hard to tell. Either way it is likely that gas will eventually make a decent penny for those that wish to hold long term into Nov/Dec to see if it sticks to an uptrend. Can gas go lower? Sure. In the next 2 weeks it might go lower if the dollar rises. But the estimate is that within 2 weeks there will be a rise from natural gas, likely the latest date being Aug 17th. So keep an eye out. ETFs for Natural Gas: BOIL (still official) / UGAZF (OTC, has been decommissioned in July, trade at your own risk)
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by Harley_Drake
1
Natural Gas - Bought the DipNatural Gas prices got hammered this past week. There's too much supply and not enough demand however, prices are near the bottom of the trading range and Summer heat should give prices a boost soon. It's also worth mentioning that the Dollar DXY is trending lower and which is bullish for all commodities. Prices are breaking out of a downtrend so I've opened a long position on the September(U) contract. It's nearing the end of the month and the August(Q) contract will expire soon. +1 @ $1.725 ($QGU20)
NYMEX:NGU2020Long
by ryan-snk
Natural Gas - Buy the HeatHot weather will likely boost Natural Gas prices in the near term so I opened a long position after price broke above $1.80 again. $QG - E-mini Natural Gas Futures +1 @ $1.815 Sell Limit -1 @ $1.94 Additionally, the MACD is showing bullish momentum on the 4hr chart and prices are being supported by the 50 and 200 EMA. If price clears $1.83 I see the momentum taking it up to $1.94 at the very least and $2.04 at the most. Should prices fall I might buy more and average down my cost basis since I don't think prices will stay down for very long under these conditions. weather.com
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!Long
by ryan-snk
BOIL Logarithmic Since Inception Do Not Buy and HoldBOIL is designed to be used for short term trading and only truly tracks natural gas on a intraday basis. BOIL decays because it is a commodity ETF and leveraged ETF. Commodity ETFs have to roll futures contracts, natural gas is typically in contango causing BOIL to decay. Leveraged ETFs re-balance each day to maintain the leverage, re-balancing results in volatility decay. BOIL can be used for short term trading but as you can see by this chart should not be held for long periods of time. Do Not Buy and Hold
AMEX:BOIL
by Natural_Gas_Trader
Natural Gas - Summer 2020As of now, expecting lots of chop within a range between $1.50 and $1.83 all Summer. Supply is abundant and demand is slow however, bankruptcies from 25-year low prices will soon take chunks out of production and demand may have bottomed already. Hot weather forecasts in high demand states (the South and Northeast) should also pop prices. Risk to the downside is if New York starts locking down again, signalling more demand loss on the way. Trade strategy: Buy near the bottom of the range and sell near the top and/or on bounces from the 200 (4hr) EMA If there is a daily close below $1.50 or some kind of big push below that level I'll close all positions. Active trades ($QG Natural Gas E-Micro Futures): +1 @ $1.53
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!Long
by ryan-snk