Could CPI data help the US30 confirm a continuation? Hi, and welcome to today’s update. In today’s video update, we’re looking at the US30 and wondering if today’s CPI could break the consolidation deadlock we are currently seeing price sitting in.
Price continues to be held in an ascending triangle pattern, and in uptrends, these are typically seen as continuation patterns. We can clearly see that price remains in an uptrend, so if we see better than expected CPI data today, could that be a driver that sets off buyers? Better than expected data could tell the market that peak inflation could be here and that rates could move into a holding phase or at least see a smaller increase.
But if we see worse than expected data, this could set the pattern up to fail, and we could see a new break lower. For now, we will look for the current trend to remain in play until we see further price action telling us otherwise.
US CPI data is due out at 8:30 am EST. Good trading, and enjoy your Wednesday.
Breadth Indicators
On Balance Volume Educational Infographic
🚨ON BALANCE VOLUME INFOGRAPHIC
Why do we like On Balance Volume (OBV)?
It can often be a LEADING factor of price action (Volume precedes price).
Notice OBV leading price here and even breaking out prior to the price break out, leading to a beautiful move to the upside.
MASSIVE BOTTOM in the SP500?I was not looking for a bottom in the SP500, but for Relative Strength in Gold with the relative Strength line from Trader Lion´s Indicator, on the weekly timeframe.
Yet I noticed that the last peak in Relative Strength in Gold was on march 16th 2020. This made me curious so I went back and looked at all RS Peaks from 2008 till now, and they all coincided with bottoms in the SP500 to the very day.
Some of those bottoms were absolutely massive buying opportunities: 2/3/09, 6/28/10, 2/1/16, 3/16/20, I also counted the peak on 12/17/18, despite a missing peak signal.
Two Peak Signals were wrong or early, for example we had a signal on 3/9/20 (7 days before the real signal and real bottom), and one signal on June 6th 2022, so 7 days before the signal we got right now, on 6/13/22.
I also want to point out, that on every other occation, we didnt have massive inflation and a tightening into worsening economic conditions.
So I wanted to see more confirmation, for that purpose I´ve used the McClellan Summation Index, and the McClellan Oscillator.
The MO shows a nice bullish divergence, and the MSI shows an abysmall market breadth, often coinciding with bottoms in the market.
Do with this information, whatever your confirmation bias makes you want to do, but stay safe and manage risk!
This is not financial advice and I am more often wrong than right.
Pesonally, I will buy some Calls and reduce my short positions.
METAWORLD OVERRight when it leaves the circle
The galaxy is making ellipses that changes the rate of direction which is equal to time when it hits a lateral plane. Instead of being vertical it’s a tangent line.
CHF pairs like channels latelyEURCHF upside.
USDCHF downside.
Linear channels are objective tools.
Easy. But watch your stops
BTC capitulation?, Long19.2k-17.5k for max pain capitulation on this downtrend.
good buy zone for spot long-term portfolio ~16k-23.5k taking into account feasible scenarios of could go. Though,16k-17k will put BTC literally down to the wire of max pain, and maybe create a generational bottom.
w/ institutions being more public in their interest w/ BTC I suspect more ranging for a long time ~20k-37k. Mean rev. indicators are printing a good bottom so far today, but not yet confirmed w/ BBWP not crossing over its MA. VZO indicator also printing green. I'd only consider BTC to be out of a bear market until it closes over ~38k on a daily candle, so if you want to be giga-safe I'd wait for there. Breaking out of 32k gives some confidence of an uptrend, but thats only if we continue going up from here. Have some self-control and try not to capitulate.
Fundamental market risk factors are noted here thanks to WifeyAlpha. Only would add that there are a lot of put options expiring this Fri./June 17th on SPY that could squeeze tradFi for part 2 of a bear market rally, so hedge your open shorts. That and monkeypox, which falls under the currency wars.
Trying out 5R trades instead of the safer 2R, I have two of them out JIC the #1 gets stopped out
Trades:
#1
Entry: 21.6k
SL: 18.3K
TP: 39k
#2
Entry: 17.5k
SL:15.2
TP:29k
$BTC Weekly OBV - it did go to $20k / it's there to stayThe price did go to $20K, not sure if OBV will keep going down a little but in my own opinion, it won't go any lower, it may wick down here and there but it is an area of interest.
imo
Bitcoin Weely NTV and Gaussian Channel signal accumulation timeThe idea is pretty straight forward. Some ideas are targeted at traders and others are targeted towards investors. This idea is targeted more towards investors than traders but it can be used by both.
Bitcoin is a decentralized payment network while also being the name of the native currency of that network and the satoshi is the smallest unit of currency. Compare that with the SWIFT payment system which uses the dollar as currency with the cent as the smallest unit of currency.
Sometimes the system is cheap to use, and sometimes the system is expensive to use based on the network fees. The NVT helps us find times when the network is undervalued in some conceptual way. What do investors want to do? Buy things when they are relatively cheap and sell them when they are relatively expensive. This NVT by aamonkey helps us do that.
Likewise the weekly gaussian channel also helps us identify when something can be undervalued historically and help us with some long term planning. Perhaps you find buying underneath the red Gaussian channel to risky, because of how low prices could continue to go. Maybe wait for prices to get back inside or above, depending on your risk tolerance and how you want to manage the stress of investing or trading.
Likewise the trendlines also give you some resistance to watch for break outs. I personally have some altcoins I have been watching for a while and I like how they are looking individually and against BTCUSD. I think I will be taking my investments on them for now and they will be in the linked ideas.
But either way I see it as time to accumulate, so I will.
A massive bear market rally has just begunWhat I've shown in this video is an indicator to determine market breadth. When breadth reaches the extreme lows (like it did 2 weeks back), massive multi year bottoms have followed. However, this time I think it'll just be a multi week bear market bounce as we are in a long term bear market.
TAKEAWAY: SPY could go up to ~430 which would translate to ~17% rally from the bottom. Time frame is approximately early August.
The S&P 500 Could Be Holding a Key LevelMany chart watchers are focused on the S&P 500’s pre-Covid peak around 3393 as potential target for the current bear market. However, the index might have held a different level from another key moment in its history.
This chart highlights the 3646, which was the intraday high on November 9, 2020. In case you forgot, that was the day stocks broke out to new record highs on news of Pfizer’s successful creation of a coronavirus vaccine.
SPX probed the level by as much as 13 points on December 11, 2020, but closed above it. The result was a monthly high and monthly low around the same price. The index breeched that line by a similar amount last week but quickly rebounded. Is the old support still valid?
Second, consider the descending parallel channel in place since late March. It may suggest that a bounce is needed -- even if new lows are still coming.
Third, the advance/decline line didn’t confirm the most recent low.
Finally, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back below their 2018 highs and oil is sliding. That may suggest most of the inflationary news is priced in -- at least for the time being.
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BTC Accumulation Phase Testing out a new indicator I found, it's interesting that every time BTC has fallen below the top band, it has stayed in between both bands and moved sideways until breaking out to the upside. At this moment, BTC broken below the top band and even touched the bottom band as support, not sure if we have reached the bottom yet but based on past circumstances and if BTC doesn't break below the bottom band I could say we could be moving sideways until late November of this year.
$BTC OBV I have NOT changed anything to the chart - OBV holding$BTC OBV I have NOT changed anything to the chart - OBV holding
Right now the price is going down very slowly (no panic selling, no mega volume) and the OBV is holding, the RSI is super oversold.
This is max pain, it means it is max opportunity. I am not saying to sell your house to buy bitcoin now, I am saying the probability to have good entries for the next few weeks, is high.
I think we will play in this area until $20k. Then, run it back turbo. OBV is holding and I am happy.
$BTC Weekly OBV - Expecting to stay at this mid line a while Until we get big volume, I think we will stay at this trendline. We could imagine a scenario where BTC pumps to retest the upper trendline. If it can NOT pass through, it will be a confirmation of a downturn and a great short entry. This is when things could get nasty.
$ETH - OBV is not necessarily bullish to me, I'm not bullish ...$ETH - OBV is not necessarily bullish to me, I'm not bullish ...
$BTC Weekly OBV - are we going to hold this middle line?The $BTC volume has been going down for 9 weeks in a row.
We are off to a good start - if this weeks stays green, we will see the OBV respecting the middle trendline.
$BNB Weekly OBV Don't know what is nextThis confirms the RSI and Volume data - it is very hard to guess where it is headed next.
It is nice to see the weekly OBV at a major trendline, but the price gap and the weekly RSI give confusing indication.
Like I said, be ready for anything, as always.
$ETH with WEEKLY OBV - Do you think the green line will HOLD?$ETH with WEEKLY OBV - Do you think the green line will HOLD?
The weekly shows a clear trendline on the OBV. It could stay on this green dashed line but this is quite likely that it will visit the solid line as well.
Trade safely!
Extreme market breadth saying a major bounce is comingIn this video, I've shown a means of measuring the current breadth in the market. It's at extreme lows which have historically marked major bottoms for the market.
TAKEAWAY
Combining this with my cycle analysis, I think a rally is coming over the next 6 weeks
OBV on Bitcoin$BTC OBV went down a little.
If it goes like this for a few weeks and it touches the lowest red line, while price stays where it is, I will call this a bottom and regain confidence toward the upside.
Officer Omicron and Insurgent Inflation Team Up To Fight the FedScene 1
Darth Powell summons the legends of the past to formulate the plan to fight the Omicron and Inflation insurgence.
Brigadier Bernanke, General Greenspan and Veteran Volcker report for duty.
“We are at an event horizon, what should we do?” declares Powell.
“Pretend it isn’t happening”, says Greenspan
“Bailout everything, print more money,” says Bernanke
“I killed inflation forever, this cannot be happening,” says Volcker
Powell rises from his throne and addresses the senate.
"There is nothing to see here. We will continue as normal, and start to cool off our insurgent inflation with the ice bath of interest rates, and the tepid taste of tapering."
In the background the sound of screaming.
Cut Scene 1.
Scene 2.
The morning after a sweet night of passion, Omicron and Inflation wake up with a hangover and get to work on terrorizing the economy. Officer Omicron has already infected 30% of the planet and inflation is rampant.
Cut Scene 2.
Well, that was exciting, but if the global economy was a star wars movie, it would be something like this.
A big gap down today, and the short-term outlook is definitely to the downside, with limited room for stimulus, and unlimited room for inflation, virus infections, and lockdowns.
Short-term RSI – Nasty
KST – Nasty
AD Ratio - ouch
Choose Your Ending
Scene 3.
After two hard years the people of Naboo (earth) are battered yet determined to summon the force to fight whatever stands in their way. It will be tough, but we will beat nature and fight to live another day. 15% to 20% drop in equities, a collapse in crypto, followed by a green revolution where we live in ESG harmony.
Scene 4.
Mother natures death star finally scourges us to hell causing the next great depression, which takes an entire generation to recover from. (Like the 2000 dotcom bust 8-year recovery)
Scene 5.
Darth Powell farts, and the world goes on as normal 😊
Cast your vote now.
Scene 3, 4, or 5.
If you like, then hit like.
Barry
Major BULLISH signal (BTCUSD)BTCUSD offers a good buying opportunity.
Disclaimer: All content has only educational and informational purposes, and never should be used or take it as financial advice.
1hr to go. Bullish OBV on the 4H for $BTC?These bullish divs in the 4H BTC chart often play out quite well. I'm not excited that we are below the SuperTrend on that timeframe, but the OBV div is set to print in the next 50 minutes. Keep your eyes peeled. Elliot Wave has fully played out as well on multiple time frames.
Let's see how it goes. Market feels super heavy except for NEAR and AVAX is holding onto it's POC at around $85. $*7 for AVAx is quite a critical point .
REMINDER: It's Friday, a weekend.
We have had historically bad dumps on Friday nights when everyone is AFK. Keep those stops tight.
Stay safe and rich out there.
