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BITCOIN - Head and Shoulders Targeting $21000BTC is in a good setup for a head and shoulders to the downside. The head and shoulders is a bearish pattern where the price bounces and returns to the "Neckline" support level the 3 times with the final return resulting in a break of neckline support. How to spot The easiest way to spot a head and shoulders is to find a support level that the price is bouncing off of. Look for a moderate bounce that returns to support followed by a larger bounce that also returns to support. This is the left shoulder, head setup. In this case, you can see a possible right shoulder forming around $23120. This price area has proven to be strong resistance. It has kept the price at bay for weeks now with all breakouts retreating back below it. As a result, it's the perfect set up for a head and shoulders. How to set your target price To determine your target price, measure the distance between the top of the head and the neckline. In this case, $1500. Subtract this amount from the neckline and you will get your target price. Make the bearish case How is the price action looking? Is the price action bearish? Is there a lot of buy or sell volume? By making a bearish case prior to your head and shoulders call, you will have more success in your trades. BTC BEARISH CASE -Broke the red channel -Returned back below strong resistance -Bear flag setup for right shoulder How to Trade Some traders like to enter their short at the top of what they perceive to be the right shoulder. The weaker (lower) the right shoulder in comparison to the left shoulder, the better. This shoulder is still early so its difficult to say whether we've topped yet, but the strong resistance would make me feel better about entering here. Other traders like to enter their short once the price has broken the neckline, which would be a more definite bearish move. Technical patterns are never 100% for certain. However, if you can spot them and trade them in the right circumstances, you will find a lot of success. Best of luck! I hope this helps improve your trading and your PnL!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by jpbrown1023
1
Bitcoin Cycles Explained (Elliott Wave Theory + NVT Indicator)Hello Traders. In this post, we are going to revise our Elliott Wave counts and also go into a deeper dive of how we can interpret the current decade cycle for Bitcoin. I am going to do my best and divide each section by using past cycles, Elliott Wave Theory, and one indicator in combination to help validate my point of view on where Bitcoin might be heading for the next cycle. If you haven't already, please do make sure to read my post on parabolic patterns and how I was able to predict the the 2021-2022 bullrun: As stated above, the three factors that I will be covering on how we can dissect the next Bitcoin cycle is: 1) Cycles (growth cycles according to the halving cycles) 2) Elliott Wave Theory + Market Psychology 3) NVT Indicator (Network Value to Transaction) --------------------- 1) Cycles (growth cycles according to the halving cycles): One of the biggest phenomenon to ever occur in the current financial market period is that Bitcoin has been working in a relatively algorithmic parabolic trend where cycles have been continuing in a compounding matter in terms of percentages. That begs the question, “are we going to assume that all past cycles will rhyme with the current cycle?” This is impossible to answer, but, we can take the time and try to predict cycles within cycles by discerning the growth phase of each cycle, and whether it will transition into something new, or, continue the fashion of rhyming cycles of the past. The best way to interpret Bitcoin's price action is via the logarithmic chart which shows the overall square root function of each cycle. Simply put, realistically, the log chart is slowing down on the longer timescale, meaning that Bitcoin is now currently in its fourth phase as shown in the chart - price maturity and store of value. Price maturity is shown in most stock models, meaning that markets do not move in straight lines and will always eventually have an end to all finite things, including price action. This chart also helps support the 'lengthening market cycle' theory, which is based on how fast the growth of a stock is shown. This idea works for Bitcoin in respect to how we cannot just continue to grow exponentially, which can then be backed by the Elliott Wave theory, which we will discuss later down below. As stated above, the cause of these growth cycles are what I believe (and the only way we can divide it by) is done via Bitcoin halvings, which leads to a supply shock and a subsequent rally, as that has been the only way we have observed in the past decade. As stock markets have their own cycles, mostly in the form of recessionary phases, Bitcoin works more along the line of where scarcity is the main factor. As history has shown that with a lower supply, the demand for the coins go higher, meaning that the fundamental value of Bitcoin may go down, and that becomes more of a 'Store of Value' asset, just like gold. Although this chart is just an observation and educated guess, we can still assume that this chart is realistic and a probable scenario as it is calculated with a balance of market psychology, technicals, and overall market cycle theories. If we also apply Murphy's law, we will also have to assume that all good things will come to an eventual end for a cycle. This is why I have divided each trading period in terms of Bitcoin's halving cycles, as that has been a great psychological indicator of how markets have reacted accordingly to price action in terms of time. The four cycles I have witnessed, and witnessing now in regards to the evolution of the markets, can be divided as such: a. 1st Growth Cycle - Use Case Discovery 
b. 2nd Growth Cycle - Price Discovery
 c. 3rd Growth Cycle - General Institutional Interest
 d. 4th Growth Cycle - Price Maturity (Store of Value); Retail Interest The first use case discovery is essentially the bare bones of the beginning of a trading period. The use-case discovery phase helps the sole investors create impactful change in the organization by bringing all investors together to collaborate. This format identifies high-value, low-effort use-cases and ensures these initiatives are being driven from the bottom-up rather than top-down. This is what has sparked the idea of currency replacement, or, as an alternative to the banking system as explained in the White Paper. The second growth cycle is what is known as the price discovery phase. Price discovery is the over balancing result of the interaction between sellers and buyers, or in other words, supply and demand outweighs one another. This is the next process of finding out the price of a given asset or commodity and gives higher interest to the early investors as the first resistance has been breached. There is a fair chance that this is a sound project and may be deemed as viable investment. Price discovery is the central function of all markets. It depends on a variety of tangible and intangible factors, from market structure to liquidity to information flow. The third phase is where we see enough people entering the markets to show that there is demand. As bitcoin moved higher throughout the year, the question was asked, “What makes bitcoin different now than the rallies we saw back in 2013 and 2017?” The biggest difference between this rally and past moves is that institutional investors have bought into the game, and this is seen as a crucial confidence boost for retail investors. The launch of CME Bitcoin futures in 2017, for example, and options in 2020, has helped spark massive institutional interest, and allowed investors to gain exposure to bitcoin without the regulatory, tax and custody issues facing the physical market. General institutional interest brought massive amounts of liquidity into the market by luring retail into the game as well. By this time, we can now see Bitcoin as solidified. This stage of the growth cycle is still considered to be the "early stages" of price action. The fourth phase is what is known as the price maturity phase, or store of value phase. This is where fundamentals have been solidified to the point of no return. Everyone knows what Bitcoin is. They may not necessarily know how it functions, but it's embedded within the society and more so even in cultures. We will see people interested in Bitcoin no matter what it brings to the table in terms of fundamentals. It is now considered a store of value, which is why it is widely regarded as the digital gold. The store of value concept does not mean it's a hedge against financial markets like many are deeming it to be, rather, Bitcoin should be seen as a highly liquid and a finite asset where people will try to find a price that is deemed "fair". Due to the finite aspect of it, this creates the idea of scarcity (i.e. one BTC = one lambo) and everyone wants a piece of the pie. This phase creates the largest liquidity within the markets making Bitcoin one of the easiest and most accessible assets to trade, relatively. As Bitcoin is now in its highly liquid state, this has created a much different and indirect investment philosophy than what we saw back in 2016-2018. Most people have "hoarded" to buy as much Bitcoin as they could back in that time period. Now, it's more of trying to find the "fair value" price and continued speculation on where Bitcoin actually might bottom for the current trading period. Due to this, we can see that the Bitcoin market has fully evolved into a huge liquid asset where the masses are trying to find the price floor, making it more difficult to trade. This in return can make the cycles longer. --------------------- 2) Elliott Wave Theory + Market Psychology Elliott Wave Theory has been a great tool to help increase the probability of predicting a larger cycle by using progressive actionary and corrective waves, in the form of 5 waves (actionary) and 3 waves (correction). There is no doubt that the Elliott Wave Theory has recently seen a surge of interest within the Crypto space and we are seeing an abundant amount of new traders trying to decipher Bitcoin through the Elliott Wave Theory. By having more people interested in trying to predict cycles via the Elliott Wave Theory, it then creates more impact on the herd psychology and efficacy of the theory, essentially increasing the percentage chance of a scenario playing out if many can agree to a collective scenario, also known as the self-fulfilling prophecy. The drawback is that it creates a plethora of open interpretations and can create a divide on which scenario is deemed viable. By understanding the theory inside out (please read my complete Elliott Wave Theory tutorial), you may have a great advantage in understanding what scenario is deemed best for you and the market.
 By adhering to the rules (rules must be met within the Elliott Wave Theory) and a set of guidelines provided by the Theory itself (the more guidelines the better - but doesn’t have to meet all guidelines, hence, this is what creates variations within wave interpretations and counts), you can then create multiple scenarios that may help you narrow down a sound scenario. Market Psychology is inherently tied to each wave structure of the motive and corrective waves. If you understand the rules and guidelines, you can then use that to your advantage by breaking down each wave degree according to market psychology. Each wave degree, both motive actionary and corrective, can be seen as a story as Ralph Elliott, the creator, said himself. How we can apply the psychology to each wave: a) Wave 1 (Actionary) + Wave 2 (Corrective): Buying on a wave 1 of the smaller degree has always been considered to be the best time to buy, usually by hindsight. Most of the general public will not be invested into Bitcoin during this phase, no matter how bullish one may be. This is usually where you will see the most fear related news within the markets when correcting for a wave 2. Most people will collectively think that the markets cannot recover as wave 2 can be the deepest of retracements within the five wave structure. Every correction within Bitcoin’s cycle is what we can call the ‘delusional phase’, or self-deception for that matter. The first bear market that Bitcoin has ever witnessed can be seen all the way back in 2010-2011, where the cycle degree of Wave 1 has corrected roughly 93% for Wave 2, wiping out an immense amount of profits that people bought on the way up of the previous cycle.
 A great example of that time period after that 93% correction has occured, can be that Bitcoin was seen by many as an insecure form of currency, had hacking issues, and just was overall considered to be a risky asset because of the sharp corrective nature of wave 1 to 2. At the bottom of 2015, we saw similar news along the lines of “Bitcoin is unsafe”, “Hacking issues”, “Bitcoin is not going to be able to recover”. The current bear cycle of 2022 can be deemed as the era of stablecoins, DEFI hacks, Mt. Gox payouts, and so forth. Wave 2’s are also very interesting in the idea that it is usually the period of time where people will usually say “I told you so”. Usually, the aftermath of wave 2’s will see even more bad news during this period of time. Due to the already harsh correction after wave 1, the price will usually not correct as hard even if the sentiment is worse than what we saw during the correction phase. A typical example you will see people saying during this time is, “This is the end for Bitcoin, and is going to $0”. b) Wave 3 (Actionary): This is a phase where everyone can be considered a genius and is not losing money. Most importantly, this is a period where most bears have already swapped to a bullish stance. The general public is almost always a step behind the markets because of this haze of euphoria. Due to this, this creates an extreme surge in price creating the characteristic of a Wave 3, where it will be the strongest movement in terms of time and price (most often, not always). This is a period of time where the general public is also where they are the invested into Bitcoin the most (or any other asset). You will typically see investors buying in or near the top of wave 3. This is where most people will question themselves, “this is not going to end, is it?” , “when will this parabolic trend end?”. This is where the wave 4 correction usually starts to come in once the general mass is asking the same question to themselves). c) Wave 4 (Corrective): This is surprisingly not the stage where most will call for an extreme bottom like we see in wave 2’s. Rather, due to the extreme rise of wave 3’s, most will deem this as the “healthy” correction stage because most will not sell their positions in anticipation for higher levels. The interesting aspect of market psychology is where the vast majority of people will hold through a wave 4, and will typically be in surprise when the wave 5 comes in, which helps re-confirm their bullish bias that the trend is going to continue. d) Wave 5 (Actionary): This is most often the stage where people will be even more invested into the asset, creating the highest liquidity vulnerability of any stage. All of the problems that occurred in wave 3 rolls over into wave 5 due to most people having already entered on a wave 3 or 4. Wave 5 usually offsets the anticipation of reconfirming the bullish bias that was created from the wave 3, hence, why most people will get burned the biggest after wave 5 ends. You will typically see mass psychology saying that, “this is going to $1M per Bitcoin”. The opposite can be applied on every bear market structure as well on the A and C waves of the larger ABC pullback for wave 2, where A and C are considered the actionary waves. As long you understand the 5 wave + 3 wave structures which can't be discussed in full detail within this post, you can then apply the exact opposite of what happens in a downtrend. For example, as stated above, I have mentioned that most people will buy into the top of actionary waves of 3 and 5. The reverse can be said for the downtrend - most people will sell off on the bottom of the actionary waves of 3 and 5 of the downtrend (also known as a capitulation phase), and instead of being euphoric like we see at top of waves 3 and 5, we see complete despair on waves 3 and 5 of the downtrend. --------------------- So this continues to beg the question, how can we take advantage of making sure we buy or sell at the right time according to the wave psychology structure?
 - Future of finance is seen at resistances, and Fear/Uncertainty is seen near supports, most typically. Remembering this will help indefinitely to your investment practices as the general public will usually be fearful during supports (Bears will also take advantage of trying to drive price down further), and euphoria during resistances or price discovery. After the 5th has ended, this is where the reset continues on each smaller 5 wave degree cycles. Those who have turned too bullish in waves 3 and 4 as stated above, the biggest mistake will be continuing to “buy the dip”, thinking it’s still part of that healthy correction like we saw for wave 4. 
 - Understand that if you know we are nearly finished with a 5 wave move, you are most likely transitioning into a bear market correction. Every correction of the bear market has been consisted of a 3 wave move as seen in the chart above. - By understanding that Bitcoin has gone through vicious cycles, we have countlessly seen this happen on every cycle. The question continues to be begged, will this finally be the beginning of an end to Bitcoin’s cycle, or, will this be the continued algorithmic continuation to newer highs? --------------------- 3) NVT Indicator (Network Value to Transaction This simple indicator has been one of the best predictors for accumulation zones for the past 10 years, and may be the only indicator you may ever really need to know when to buy Bitcoin. This answers my personal, "When Do I Buy Bitcoin?" question. The 'NVT' Indicator, is one of the most simple, yet highly effective indicators to date. This can be used to find ALL of the accumulation zones indicated by the overbought (red) and oversold (gray) territories. For simplicity: ⚪ Gray = Buy 🔴 Red = Sell The NVT indicator excludes the ‘FAIR PRICE’ of Bitcoin, and disregards the price at any given level. It is merely used as a metric to tell you that people may be accumulating in the GRAY zone due to the inactivity of the Bitcoin network. The current bear market has brought the NVT indicator BACK into the gray zone, further suggesting that even at $20,000 levels, you may be looking at possible BUYS for the next major cycle. This is also, effectively, a Dollar Cost Average (DCA) strategy, at best. It is the value of the market cap divided by the data transactions. In simpler terms, it is the number of Bitcoins in circulation divided by the number of Bitcoins transacted at the end of the day. In essence, the lower the value ratio, it can essentially give an extended warning signal that Bitcoin is most probably entering a period of inactivity and prolonged correction if it is in the gray zone. This can be translated to possibly as a buy signal. The reverse can be said about the NVT indicator going into the red zone. This means the activity is far higher and can indicate a signal that a prolonged period of overbought-ness can occur in the markets.

 As this is merely a preparation indicator, this can help you confirm a certain bias if used in conjunction with the Elliott Wave Theory. As with all indicators, this does have its drawbacks, hence, why it should be combined with other indicators and theories. The main drawback can be that it doesn't give a certain range of a time to "Buy" or "Sell". It is merely an indicator to tell you that, "hey it might be time to sell or buy Bitcoin". --------------------- 4) Scenarios (combining the Elliott Wave Theory and NVT indicator) 1st Scenario: If we are going to combine the rhyming cyclical moves for Bitcoin of the past decade, and speculate (assume) that we will see no real changes in corrections, we can assume that this cycle may have the biggest weight when combined with market psychology, with the added help of the NVT indicator, which is also in the gray zone. By assuming that the actionary cycle wave 3 has ended, we have to assume that the current move down is in a corrective wave. We can assume that wave 4 of the cycle degree is in its finishing stages. The correction can be either completed here, or, we can be seeing one more move down. As the current sentiment is collectively seeing this as a potential bottom zone, this can also help us stick to this scenario bias. This scenario in theory should work perfectly in retrospect if this scenario were to play out. For example, I mentioned that the biggest mistake of buying near the top of wave 3 happens the most by general investors. We are seeing to extent, actually, by a large degree, that most people are still holding their Bitcoins at a relatively high loss (can be backed by on-chain data by using the Unrealized Losses theory), and is still anticipating for more moves up. The next biggest mistake will be people continuing to hold their positions up until where wave 5 ends, or even worse, buying more near the top that will end abruptly short in this scenario. The best trading strategy for this scenario is to take profits accordingly and assume that the cycle is not going for a larger move to the upside, rather, assume that the larger 5 wave cycle is going to end near 100K as shown in the chart. 2nd Scenario: By simply adjusting our cycle waves, we can also arrange the degree waves to fit a certain bearish bias where the cycle wave 5 has ended. Adhering to the idea that we are in the market maturity phase, this can indicate that the markets are now already fully matured to the point where we can now go for the bigger correction that many may be looking for. Instead of seeing this as a shorter duration of a correction, we can also say that the current move down is just a larger 5 wave impulse creating an A Wave. The bear market rally should then follow suit, followed by another 5 waves for the larger C wave that can bring us down to levels that many would again deem Bitcoin dead. As for the NVT indicator, we can assume that Bitcoin is going to stay in the gray zone for a large extended time. 3rd Scenario: This scenario works on the idea of us being in a series of 1-2's. As we are working in a 10 year timespan, this is the least likely scenario. The only definitive backing to this scenario is that Bitcoin is going for a parabolic run that will be heavily nested for the next 5 years into uncharted territories well beyond 500K+. This would mean that Bitcoin would have to defy the next bear market for the running 5+ years or so. I hope this has helped you! All of these ideas are combined for educational purposes by using a theory that is hard to grasp technically. In the end, no one knows where Bitcoin is really heading, but we can help alleviate that by using some of the combined techniques of theories and technical analysis explained in this post. Enjoy, and be safe!
BNC:BLXEducation
by XForceGlobal
18
A Comprehensive Guide to Elliott Wave Degrees (Timeframes)Hello Traders. In this supplemental post to my Elliott Wave guide, I will help you understand wave degrees, and what the numbers actually mean when you are labeling each wave. Identifying the wave level (degree) that you are trading is going to be identified at any given time and will be based on what's known as a "degree". One of the biggest problems that new Elliott Wave traders have is grasping the structure or "nesting" of the wave patterns (check the diagram within the chart above). The patterns identified by Elliott himself, occurs across multiple time frames. This means that a completed "five wave" wave structure on a smaller time frame, for example, the 15 minute chart, may represent just the first wave of a larger wave structure unfolding on a 60-minute chart, and so forth. In a micro-macro sense, each of the unfolding wave patterns is just part of a bigger wave pattern unfolding in the higher timeframes. The sequence from wave 1 through 5 completes one wave of a higher degree (again, refer to the diagram above), that is, a wave belonging to the next higher tier of wave sequences. The movements from wave 1 through 5 completes either a wave 1, 3 or 5 of the higher degree, while the a-b-c sequence completes either a wave 2 or 4 of the higher degree. When you are getting into lower degrees, each wave of the sequence can be broken down into smaller waves accordingly to the same dynamic (this is not so important as many claim to be). The most commonly used degrees are the Primary, Intermediate, and Minor degrees when labeling your micro-macro wave counts. In the diagram above you can see how Wave 1 of the high degree is made up of a smaller 5-wave impulse waves and Wave 2 is made up of smaller three wave corrective waves. And each of these waves is, in turn, always comprised of smaller wave patterns, and so forth.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PEducation
by XForceGlobal
15
A Comprehensive Guide to Elliott Wave Rules & GuidelinesHello Traders. In this post I will be discussing every single Elliott Wave rule and guideline according to the Elliott Wave Theory. There are many confusions upon traders when applying Elliott Wave rules, as there are also guidelines to be considered when trading. ***RULES AND GUIDELINES ARE TWO DIFFERENT SET OF TOOLS!*** Elliott Wave Theory "Rules" MUST be obeyed, I repeat, they MUST be obeyed, and obeyed precisely for an Elliott Wave pattern to qualify as an Elliott "Wave" - However, the "Guidelines" do not have to be obeyed. The more Guidelines obeyed by an Elliott pattern, the higher its "rating" or "probability" of being correct. This guide is purely a supplement guide and a quick reference for ANYONE who is trying to remember the rules and guidelines. I hope this guide helps you to further advance into the Elliott Wave Theory. Please write in the comment section below if I have missed anything, I will be glad to add them in the update section. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ We can categorize the Rules and Guidelines into TWO distinctive pattern groups: 1. Impulsive Wave Patterns (5 wave moves), and, 2. Corrective Patterns (3 wave moves) ------- **IMPULSIVE WAVES** Impulsive Wave Rules: •Wave 2 may NEVER move beyond the origin of wave 1 (it cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1). •Wave 4 may NEVER enter the price territory of wave 1. •Wave 3 may NEVER be the shortest wave. •Impulse waves ALWAYS subdivide into 5 waves. •Waves 1, 3, and 5 are ALWAYS 5 waves. Impulsive Wave Guidelines: •Wave 3 most often exceeds the pivot of wave 1 •On rare occasion, wave 5 will not move beyond the pivot of wave 3. This is known as TRUNCATION (refer to my EW guide). •Usually, wave 3 will extend and have 5 waves within the third wave. Occasionally, two waves will extend (3rd and 5th waves). Never will all three extend. •When wave 3 extends, wave 5 tends to EQUAL in length with wave 1. •When wave 5 extends, it frequently reaches to the length of waves 1 plus 3. •Wave 1 is the least likely to extend, but can be valid. •Sometimes, the extended wave corresponds with the current parent wave. (for example, In a higher degree wave 5, it is common for the lower degree wave 5 to extend as well) •Sometimes, the extended wave will match the number of the current parent wave •The center of Wave 3, normally has the steepest slope of the entire 5 wave structure. •Wave 2 will develop into a ZIGZAG correction, FLAT, or a COMBINATION wave (WXY, WXYXZ). Wave 2 cannot be a triangle in its entirety. •Wave 4 will develop into a ZIGZAG, FLAT, COMBINATION (WXY, WXYXZ), or TRIANGLE. Diagonal Rules: a. Leading Diagonal b. Ending Diagonal A Diagonal is a common 5 Wave Impulsive pattern labeled as a 1-2-3-4-5 that moves with the larger trend (up or down). Diagonals move within two channel lines drawn from Waves 1 to 3, and from Waves 2 to 4. A Diagonal MUST be contracting. There exist two types of Diagonals; Leading and Ending. They have a different internal structure and are seen in different positions within the larger degree pattern. Ending Diagonals are usually more common than Leading Diagonals in terms of probabilities. •Wave 1 of a Leading Diagonal must be an Impulse or a Leading Diagonal. •Wave 1 of an Ending Diagonal must be a Zigzag family pattern. •Wave 2 may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle. •Wave 2 must be less than Wave 1 by price. •Wave 3 of a Leading Diagonal must be an Impulse. •Wave 3 of an Ending Diagonal must be a Zigzag family pattern. •Wave 3 must be greater than Wave 2 by price. •Wave 4 may be any corrective pattern. •Waves 2 and 4 must either overlap or be within 10% of length Wave 3 of doing so. All internal data points are considered. •The time taken by Wave 4 must be between 10% and 10 times the time taken by Wave 2. •Wave 5 of an Ending Diagonal must be a Zigzag family pattern. •Wave 5 of a Leading Diagonal must be an Impulse or Ending Diagonal. •If Wave 1 is a Leading Diagonal then Wave 5 cannot be an Ending Diagonal. •Wave 3 must not be shorter than both Waves 1 and 5. •Wave 5 must be at least 80% of Wave 4 by price. •Wave 5 is never the longest when compared with Wave 1 and Wave 3. •Wave 5 is always less than Wave 3 by price. •The intersection of the channel lines must be beyond the end of the pattern. •Diagonals must move within the two channel lines or be within 10% of gross movement. •Channel lines must converge, slope in the same direction and neither be horizontal. •The maximum number of pattern lengths into the future that the channel lines intersect is 4. •The minimum time for Wave 5 is 10% of Wave 4. The maximum time for Wave 5 is 5 times Wave 3. Diagonal Guidelines: •Wave 1 of a Leading Diagonal is usually an Impulse, but in rare cases may be a Leading Diagonal. •Wave 2 is usually ZigZag family pattern. •Generally Wave 2 is greater than 35% of Wave 1's total price movement. •Wave 4 is commonly a Zigzag. •It is rare that at least either Waves 2 or 4 of an Ending Diagonal is not a Zigzag family pattern. •Generally Wave 4 is greater than 35% of Wave 3's gross price movement. •The end points of Waves 1 and 4 generally overlap. •Expect the time taken by Wave 4 to be between 20% and 5 times Wave 2. •Wave 5 is usually greater than Wave 4 by price. •It is typical for Wave 5 of a Leading Diagonal to end before reaching the channel line. •It is typical for Wave 5 of an Ending Diagonal to exceed the channel line. ---------- **CORRECTIVE WAVES** ZigZag Rules: A ZigZag is a three wave structure labeled A-B-C, generally moving counter to the larger trend. It is the most common three wave Elliott pattern. Zigzags are corrective in nature. •Wave A must be an Impulse or a Leading Diagonal. •Wave B can only be a corrective pattern. •Wave B must be shorter than Wave A by price. All internal points are considered. •Wave B must be at least 20% of A by price. •Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave B, it must not exceed 10 times the time taken by Wave A. Wave C must be an Impulse or an Ending Diagonal. •If Wave A is a Leading Diagonal, then Wave C must not be an Ending Diagonal. •Wave C must be longer than 90% of Wave B by price. •Wave C must be less than 5 times Wave B by price. •It is not allowable to have both Wave 5 of A a failure (Wave 5 is shorter then Wave 4) and Wave 5 of C a failure. •Wave C must be no more than 10 times either Wave A or B in price or time. ZigZag Guidelines: •It is unusual for a Wave within Wave A to have a greater gross price movement than Wave A. •Wave B should end nowhere near beginning of Wave A •Wave B should retrace at least 30% of Wave A. •Wave B is most likely to retrace Wave A by about 38.2%. •Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 50%. •Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 61.8%. •The largest Wave in B is usually less than the gross price movement of Wave A. •The time taken by Wave B is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of the time taken by Wave A. •Wave C is most likely to have a similar price length to Wave A. •The next most likely price lengths for Wave C are 61.8% and 161% of Wave A •The next most likely price length for Wave C is 61.8% of Wave A beyond the end of Wave A. •If Wave C is much longer than 161.8% of A, then the pattern is more probably the beginning of an Impulse than a Zigzag. •If Wave C is complete, and has a greater slope than Wave A, expect the Zigzag to extend to an Impulse. •Although Wave C should always be greater in price to Wave B, in rare cases Wave C can be up to 10% shorter than Wave B. •The largest Wave within C by price is usually less than the gross price movement of Wave A. •The time taken by Wave C is usually between 61.8% of Wave A and 161.8% of the shortest Wave of A and B. Flat Rules: A Flat is a three wave pattern labeled A-B-C that moves generally sideways. It is corrective and counter-trend and is a very common Elliott pattern. •Wave A can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle. •Wave B can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle. •Wave B must retrace more than 70% of Wave A. •Wave B is less than twice the price movement of Wave A, including internal points of Wave B. •Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave B, it must be less than 10 times Wave A. •Wave C must be an Impulse or Ending Diagonal. •Wave C must share some common price territory with Wave A. •Wave C must be less than twice the longest of Waves A and B, including internal points of Wave C. •Wave C must be less the three times the price distance of Wave A. •Disallow back to back failures. •Wave C must be no more than 10 times either Waves A or B in price and time. •There is no minimum time constrains for Wave A. Flat Guidelines: •Wave A is usually a Zigzag family pattern. •Wave A is rarely an Expanding Triangle. •The largest Wave within Wave A is usually less than Wave A by price. •Wave B is usually a Zigzag family pattern. •Wave B is rarely a Flat. •Wave B is usually greater than 95% of Wave A by price. •Wave B is usually less than 140% of Wave A by price. •The largest Wave within B is usually less than Wave A by price. •The time taken by Wave B is generally between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave A. •Wave C is rarely an Ending Diagonal. •Wave C is often about the same length as both Wave A and B. •Wave C often ends at point which is a percent of Wave A beyond end of Wave A equal to the same percentage away from the start of Wave A. •Wave C usually retraces a minimum of 100% of Wave B. •Wave C normally reaches to the end of Wave A •Wave C is not often more than 140% of the longer of Wave A or B. •If Wave C is longer than Wave B, then Wave C is often about 61.8% of A beyond end of A. •If Wave C is longer than Wave B, then Wave C is often about 161.8% of Wave A from end of Wave B by price. •The time taken by Wave C is generally between 61.8% of Wave 1 to 161.8% of the shortest of Waves A and B. Triangle Rules: CT = Contracting Triangle, ET = Expanding Triangle A Triangle is a common 5 Wave pattern labeled A-B-C-D-E that moves counter-trend and is corrective in nature. Triangles move within two channel lines drawn from Waves A to C, and from Waves B to D. A Triangle is either Contracting or Expanding depending on whether the channel lines are converging or expanding. Expanding Triangles are rare. •Wave A of a CT is always either a Zigzag based pattern or a Flat. Wave A of an ET can only be a Zigzag based pattern. •Within Wave A of a CT, Wave B must be less than 105% of Wave A's price length. The same rule applies for Waves C and D of the CT. •Wave B must be a Zigzag based pattern. •Wave C of a CT can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle. Wave C of an ET must be a Zigzag based pattern. •Wave B of a CT must retrace Wave A by 50%. •For a CT, Wave C must be less than Wave B by price and Wave C must be greater than or equal to 50% of Wave B by price. •For an ET, Wave B must be less than Wave C by price and Wave B must be greater or equal to 50% of Wave C by price. •Wave D of a CT can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle. Wave D of an ET must be a Zigzag based pattern. •Wave B, C and D must not move more than 10% beyond the A-C & B-D channel lines (based on the length of Wave C). •In an ET, Wave C must be less than Wave D by price and Wave C must be more than 50% of Wave D by price. •In an ET, Wave A must move within the A-C channel or pass through it by no more than 10% of the length of Wave B by price. •In an CT, Wave D must be less than Wave C by price and Wave D must be greater than or equal to 50% of Wave C by price. •The intersection of the channel lines must occur beyond the end of a CT, and before the beginning of an ET. •The channel lines must either converge or diverge. They cannot be parallel. •Wave D of a CT must not end such that when retraced 25% by E, E will not reach the price territory of A. •Only one channel line in a CT may be horizontal. Neither channel line of an ET can be horizontal. •The maximum time for Wave D is 4 times Wave C. •Wave E of a CT can either be a CT or a Zigzag family pattern. For an ET, Wave E must be a Zigzag based pattern. •In an ET, Wave E must be greater than Wave D by price and Wave D must be greater or equal to 50% of Wave E by price. •In an ET, either Wave A or B will be the shortest Wave in the pattern. •In a CT, Wave E will be less than Wave D by price and Wave E will be greater than or equal to 25% of Wave D by price. •In a CT, either Wave A or B will be the longest Wave in the pattern. •In a CT, the maximum time for Wave E is 4 times Wave C. •Wave E must end in the price territory of A. •Wave E must not pass through the B-D line, or if it does, by no more than 10% of the length of Wave D. •The maximum number of pattern lengths into the future that the channel lines intersect is 6. Triangle Guidelines: •Wave A is usually a zigzag family pattern. •Wave B is usually a zigzag family pattern. •Wave C is often a zigzag family pattern. •Wave C usually takes more time than any other Wave in the pattern. •Wave D is usually a zigzag family pattern. •Waves B, C and D rarely move outside the B-D line. •Waves A, B, C and E rarely move outside the A-C line. •Wave E is usually a zigzag family pattern or the same type of Triangle as the larger pattern. •Usually at least two Waves travelling in the same direction will relate by about 61.8%. •It is common for two or more adjacent Waves will be related by 61.8%. •In a CT, Wave E normally retraces Wave D by about 70%. •Double and Triple ZigZag Rules: •Double (DZ) and Triple (TZ) Zigzags are similar to Zigzags, and are typically two or three Zigzag patterns strung together with a joining Wave called an x Wave, and are corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Zigzags, Double Zigzags and Triple Zigzags are also known as Zigzag family patterns, or 'Sharp' patterns. Double Zigzags are labeled w-x-y, while Triple Zigzags are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double Zigzag is illustrated below. Double and Triple ZigZag Rules: •Wave W must be a Zigzag. •Wave C of W cannot be a failure. •Wave X can be any corrective pattern except an ET. •Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price. •Wave X must retrace at least 20% of W by price. •The gross price movement of Wave X must be less then 3 times the price movement of Wave W. •Wave X must be no more than 5 times Wave W by time. •Wave Y must be a Zigzag •Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price. •Back to back and double failures are not allowed. •Wave Y must be greater than 90% of Wave W by price, and Wave Y must be less than 5 times Wave W by price. •Wave Y must be no more than a factor of 5 times either Wave X or W in price or time. •Wave C of Y cannot be a failure. •Wave XX can be any corrective pattern except an ET. •Wave XX must be smaller than Wave Y by price. •Wave XX must retrace at least 20% of Y. •The gross price movement of Wave XX must be less than 3 times the gross movement of Wave W. •Wave Z must be a Zigzag •Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price. •Wave Z must be less than 5 times Wave Y by price, and must also be less than 5 times Wave W by price. •Wave Z must be no more than a 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in both price and time. •Double and Triple ZigZag Guidelines: •The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than Wave W by price. •Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern. •Wave X is usually less than 70% of Wave W by price. •Wave X will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave W. •Wave X is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave W. •Wave X is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave W. •Wave X is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave W. •The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price. •The time taken by Wave X is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave 1. •Wave Y is next most likely to be equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of W by price. •Expect the time taken by Wave Y to be between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of shortest of Wave W and X. •Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern. •Wave XX is usually less than 70% of Wave Y by price. •Wave XX will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave Y. •Wave XX is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave Y. •Wave XX is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave Y. •Wave XX is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave Y. •The largest Wave within Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price. •Wave Z is most likely to be about equal to Wave Y by price. •Wave Z is next most likely to be about equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave Y. •The largest Wave in Wave Z is usually less than Wave Y by price. Double and Triple Sideways Rules: Double (D3) and Triple (T3) Sideways patterns are similar to Flats, and are typically two or three corrective patterns strung together with a joining Wave, called an x Wave, and are all corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Doubles are labeled w-x-y, while Triples are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double 3 is illustrated below. •Wave W may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle, double or triple. •Wave C of W cannot be a failure. •Wave X may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle, double or triple. •The minimum X Wave retracement is 70% of Wave W. •The maximum price distance of Wave X is 150% of both the previous Wave and ensuing Wave. All internal data points are considered. •Although there is no minimum time for Wave X, the maximum time is 10 times the time taken by Wave W. •Wave Y may be any corrective pattern except double, triple or a Triangle in a Triple Zigzag. However, Wave Y cannot be a Zigzag if Wave W is a Zigzag. •Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price, except if Wave Y is a Triangle. •Wave C of Y cannot be a failure. •Wave Y must be no more than 5 times either Wave X or W in price and time. •Wave Y has no minimum time constraint. •Wave XX may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle, double or triple. •The minimum Wave XX retracement is 70% of Wave Y. •The maximum Wave XX retracement is 150% of previous Wave and ensuing Wave. All internal data points are considered. •Wave Z may be any corrective pattern except double or triple. However Wave Z cannot be a Zigzag if Y is a Zigzag. •Wave Z is greater than or equal to XX by price. •Wave Z must be no more than 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in price and time. •Back to back and double failures are not allowed. •If Wave Y is greater than Wave W by price, then the maximum Wave Z price movement is twice the price movement of Wave W. Double and Triple Sideways Guidelines: •The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price. •Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern. •The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than Wave W by price. •Wave X is usually less than 140% of W by price. •Wave X is usually greater than 95% of Wave W by price. •The most likely retracement for Wave X is 110% of Wave W. •Time for X is generally between 62% of W1 and 1.618 of the time of W1. •If Wave Y is a Triangle, the most likely length of Wave Y is about 61.8% of Wave W. If Wave Y is not a Triangle, the most likely lengths for Wave Y are 100% of Wave W, 161.8% of Wave W and 10% of the length of Wave W beyond the end of Wave W. •The largest Wave in Wave Y is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price. •Wave Y is usually less than twice the longest of Wave W and Wave X in price. •Wave Y is generally between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of Wave W in time. •Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern. •The largest Wave in Wave XX is usually less than Wave Y in price. •Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price. •Wave XX is usually greater than 95% of Y by price. •The most likely retracement for Wave XX is 110% of Wave Y. •If Wave Y is a Triangle, most likely length by price is 61.8% of Wave W. If Wave Y is not a Triangle, then the most likely lengths are 100% of Wave W, 161.8% of Wave W and 10% of length of Wave W beyond the end of Wave W, all by price. •The largest wave in Wave Z is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price. •Wave Z is usually less than twice the longest of Wave Y and Wave XX.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
44
Marubozu Candlestick Pattern 📉📉📉‼️ What is a Marubozu in forex? A Marubozu is a long or tall Japanese candlestick with no upper or lower shadow (or wick). The candlestick pattern comes in both a bearish (red or black) and a bullish (green or white) form and is easy to spot due to its long body. It basically looks like a vertical rectangle. ‼️ How can you tell if Marubozu is bullish? The closing Marubozu is a stronger candlestick pattern. It is formed when the close price is equal to the high or the low of the day. When the close price is equal to the low then it is called bearish and when the close is equal to the high it is a bullish Marubozu ‼️ What happens after a Marubozu candle? After two long red candles, the bearish Marubozu close pattern occurs, which signals that the bears are still a dominant force. Ultimately, the price action continues to move lower as the market was very bearish during this period of time ‼️ How do you use a Marubozu candlestick? Basically, when trading marubozu candlesticks, Watch for bullish or bearish candlesticks to form. If bullish, take a long when price breaks above. Place stop below candlesticks. If bearish, take a short when price falls below. Place a stop above candlestick.
GEducation
by AnonimFXRO
RISK ON vs RISK OFF 📉📉as i use this confluence to enter trades. 🎯 Risk ON vs Risk OFF market sentiment reflects all the market activity, its not a market sentiment for crypto or forex or stock market its for all the financial markets, when i use this confluence i try to understand what are institutional/retail investors are doing are they buying risk on assets or they are buying risk on assets. 🎯 Usually investors buy risk on assets when they are looking for risk meaning they want higher yield on their investment they want to MULTIPLY money(key word) this is happening during times of financial prosperity, no wars, no lockdowns, no problems around the world everyone are doing great and making money 🎯 On other side RISK OFF is when investors tend to buy financil assets that PROTECT (key word) their capital they dont want a high yield they want just to save their money and protect during time of financial stress, wars, lockdowns when everything is not clear and safe. ✅ RISK ON Assets Stock Market Crypto USOil AUD NZD CAD EUR GBP ✅ RISK OFF Assets Government Bonds JPY CHF USD GOLD SILVER
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by AnonimFXRO
Entry Confluences - Examples 📉📉📉🎯 Those are the examples where you use all the confluences i am teaching in my community posts. ✅ Market Structure ✅ Key Level ( Support, Resistance areas) ✅ Candlestick Patterns ( bullish or bearish ) ✅ Fibonacci Retracement ( discount or premium ) You can use them as a single confluence but to have a better trade probability i recommend to allign them together, remember focus on the quality not the quantity. You don't need a lot of trades to make money in the markets, you need high quality trades patience and discipline. What is your analysis ?
Education
by AnonimFXRO
Fear/Greed Index = NEUTRAL ✅As many of you guys know closely look at the Fear/Greed Index indicator when trading the crypto market and i try to allign the technical analysis with the sentiment analysis because crypto market is very emotional and many moves are based on the emotions either it's fear/greed or anything else. For today the 04.02.2022 FEAR/GREED index indicator is located at a NEUTRAL area meaning we have no ENTRY, the RETAIL HEARD is not in a GREED or a FEAR Sentiment so there is no trading opportunity based on this market analysis tool, let's wait for the btc drop somewhere around 45k - 42.5k in those areas there is a high probability the tool will be somewhere around 40-50 FEAR area so that will be a good LONG ENTRY. ✅ Why Measure Fear and Greed? The crypto market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear of missing out). Also, people often sell their coins in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With our Fear and Greed Index, we try to save you from your own emotional overreactions. There are two simple assumptions: ✅ Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity. ✅ When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction. Therefore, we analyze the current sentiment of the Bitcoin market and crunch the numbers into a simple meter from 0 to 100. Zero means "Extreme Fear", while 100 means "Extreme Greed". See below for further information on our data sources. What do you think ? Do you use this market tool ?
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by AnonimFXRO
BITCOIN EXCHANGE RESERVE 📉📉📉📉 WHY I AM BULLISH ON BITCOIN FROM A FUNDAMENTAL-MACRO PERSPECTIVE ? ✅ Exchange reserve is a collective measure of potential coins that are ready to be sold in the market. Exchange Reserve is the accumulated result of Exchange In/Outflow & Netflow which naturally follows the indications that in/outflow has. Similar to Exchange NetFlow's interpretation, an increasing trend in netflow indicates the selling pressure and the decreasing trend indicates the buying pressure. However, instead of Exchange In/Outflow & Netflow indicating the specific moment or period, Exchange Reserve is easy to track the result of the entire period's movements ✅ It indicates the degree of accumulated selling pressure in the exchange High : High selling pressure A large number of coins are staying in the exchange to be traded indicating high selling pressure Low : Low selling pressure A Small number of coins are staying in the exchange to be traded indicating low selling pressure ✅ It shows the changing status in scarcity Increasing trend: Decreasing scarcity -Bearish More coins are available in the exchange indicating decreasing scarcity of coins that are being traded which supports bearish movement Decreasing trend: Increasing scarcity - Bullish Fewer coins are available in the exchange indicating increasing scarcity of coins that are being traded which supports bullish movement
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by AnonimFXRO
The Madness of the Crowds ✅✅✅ ✅ The Madness of Crowds One way to view the market is as a disorganized crowd of individuals whose sole common purpose is to ascertain the future mood of the economy—or the balance of power between optimists (bulls) and pessimists (bears)—and thereby generate returns from a correct trading decision made today that will pay off in the future. 🎯However, it's important to realize that the crowd is comprised of a variety o individuals, each one prone to competing and conflicting emotions. Optimism and pessimism, hope and fear—all these emotions can exist in one investor at different times or in multiple investors or groups at the same time. In any trading decision, the primary goal is to make sense of this crush of emotion, thereby evaluating the psychology of the market crowd. Understanding Herd Behavior The key to such widespread phenomena lies in the herding nature of the crowd: the way in which a collection of usually calm, rational individuals can be overwhelmed by such emotion when it appears their peers 🎯 The Risks of Following the Crowd The key to enduring success in trading is to develop an individual, independent system that exhibits the positive qualities of studious, non-emotional, rational analysis, and highly disciplined implementation. The choice will depend on the individual trader's unique predilection for charting and technical analysis. If market reality jibes with the tenets of the trader's system, a successful and profitable career is born (at least for the moment). 🎯 So the ideal situation for any trader is that beautiful alignment that occurs when the market crowd and one's chosen system of analysis conspire to create profitability. This is when the public seems to confirm your system of analysis and is likely the very situation where your highest profits will be earned in the short term. Yet this is also the most potentially devastating situation in the medium to long term because the individual trader can be lulled into a false sense of security as their analysis is confirmed. The trader is then subtly and irrevocably sucked into joining the crowd, straying from their individual system and giving increasing credence to the decisions of others. 🎯 Inevitably, there will be a time when the crowd's behavior will diverge from the direction suggested by the trader's analytical system, and this is the precise time at which the trader must put on the brakes and exit his position. This is also the most difficult time to exit a winning position, as it is very easy to second guess the signal that one is receiving, and to hold out for just a little more profitability. As is always the case, straying from one's system may be fruitful for a time, but in the long term, it is always the individual, disciplined, analytical approach that will win out over blind adherence to those around you.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by AnonimFXRO
Order Types in the Markets💰💰💰🎯 In the financial market the orders are on two categories. ✅ Market Execution orders LONG - BUY SHORT - SELL meaning that you are ok with the price on the certain asset and you would like to short or long it on the other side there is ✅ Pending Orders - meaning you are not ok with the actual price and you would like to buy/sell it later in time I use pending orders when i am out of my trading office so i dont miss trading opportunities Was this valuable, drop a comment !
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by AnonimFXRO
2
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 4.3 - "Market Psychology"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 4.3, where we will be learning about the 'Market Psychology' aspect of Elliott Waves . This is one of the most important and interesting proponents of the Elliott Wave theory as it constitutes all the psychological aspects within the whole market. If you have a clear understanding of market psychology within each level of wave structure or correction, you can get a good gist of what to predict what will happen even in the most basics of the five wave and simple abc correction. 📚 Chapter 4 Glossary: 4.1 Alternation 4.2 Channeling 📖 4.3 Psychology 4.4 Fib-Ratio 4.5 Motive Wave Multiples 4.6 Corrective Wave Multiples ----- Market Psychology of the complete five wave and abc structure within Elliott Waves The beauty of EW is that its price actions are based on the collective reflection of the beliefs of all market participants - which is why market psychology is included within the theory. They represent mass psychology and the underlining dynamics from pessimism to optimism, back and forth . Waves 1-5 Market Psychology - Wave 1 is sometimes difficult to identify since it's the beginning of a trend, as the previous trend may be still intact. It also does not have clear price action, looks choppy and the waves are overlapping, forming wedges /diagonals. - Wave 2 retraces a lot within the price action made from wave 1. Most traders still speculate on the previous trend to continue and do not notice a possible new trend forming. - Wave 3 is almost always the biggest move. Most new EW traders can at least identify this. It represents the finished trend change, as wave 2 made a higher low followed by a higher high in wave 3. Also it is frequently extended, moving with strong momentum without any major corrections. - Wave 4 can generally be predicted easily, as they tend to "alternate" (ch. 4.1) to wave 2 and take more time to finish. It is usually a complex movement, tricking traders into false signals. - Wave 5 represents the final push in the direction of the PRIMARY trend. Usually wave 5 comes with lower volume and often shows a clear divergence in the indicators like the RSI ( bearish divergences). ABC Correction Market Psychology - Wave A can unfold in either a three or five wave structure depending on the situation. It represents the exhaustion created from the previous 5 wave, and is regularly not clearly visible as a lot of traders just think it is a normal pullback of the dominant trend. - Wave B is can take many shapes and are known for being a "bull-trap“. Many will long the top of the B wave. The B wave can either retrace much lower than wave A or shoot up fast, sometimes even above the last high, catching traders on the wrong side as a fake breakout occurs. Most will have subwaves and in textbook technical analysis , a right shoulder in a Head-Shoulder formation. - Wave C is impulsive and has five waves against the dominant trend. It usually has the length of wave A, but an extension to the 1.618 fib or even greater is possible, making them fast and devastating moves as they are punishing impulse waves.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
14
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 4.2 - "Channeling"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 4.2, where we will be learning about channeling in Elliott Waves (also known as, parallel channels) - something that many of you are probably already doing in your daily technical analysis, but probably have not known that it could be used within the Elliott Wave theory. This method is going to give us an extra edge when it comes to pinpointing the end of certain waves in certain patterns, basically a way to predict the future in some ways by reducing some of the probabilities of unknown trajectory of waves. 📚 Chapter 4 Glossary: 4.1 Alternation 📖 4.2 Channeling 4.3 Psychology 4.4 Fib-Ratio 4.5 Motive Wave Multiples 4.6 Corrective Wave Multiples ----- What is Channeling, or Parallel Channels? One of the major guidelines or rules within in the Elliot Wave theory is that two of the impulse waves (please refer to chapter 1) in a five-wave basic structure will tend to be equal. This is true in a normal five-wave basic structure or in a basic structure where we have one extended wave. In even more simpler terms, we almost always will have two impulse waves that will be similar in length. When we have the relationship between two waves inside the parallel structure, the ends of these waves can be calculated in points or percentages of extensions like the 127.2%, 161.8% (the golden fib zone! - more on the fibs in the next chapter). Most of the time these two waves will be equal in length, and if one wave was 100 points longer, then there is a very high probability that another wave will be 100 ticks long (also known as a measured move). And of course you already know that if the first wave is 90 points and the second wave is 100 points, there’s a high probability that the fifth wave will be an extended wave, and etc. Again, if you are lost, I highly recommend you go back to reading chapters 1 and 2. So since we have an arithmetic relationship (or equality) within the structure in terms of line connections, the upper and lower boundaries of the impulse waves can be marked by two major trendlines. EW Traders will often draw a temporary channel when enough data is given, and what we have here is actually a temporary channel in the chart above. This is not a fancy term - this merely means you are drawing the channel ahead of time since you have a rough idea of the 3rd wave already being drawn out. You then can visually predict by connecting two or three of the major points to create a channel to help you assume where the next possible wave will end by simple support. You can see that the next wave will be a down move and then we have to complete the 4th wave. We don’t know if we are in a five-wave basic structure just yet, but the channel will help us validate this idea. Furthermore, since the two waves inside of the structure tend to be equal and the longest wave here is the third wave, you can see that we can have a predicted fourth wave that will bounce at the channel support due to the 'temporary' channel support line we created as we can see in the chart, and the fifth wave will be equal in length of the wave 1, and will end up most likely at the channels resistance in the upper boundary. What makes a parallel channel invalidated? Well, that's easy - if price breaks the channel prematurely, and continues to fall, this will invalidate our count and the idea of channeling. If the fourth wave doesn’t end at a point touching the lower boundary of the support line channel, you must reconstruct it by connecting the ends of wave 2 and 4, to correctly estimate the end of wave 5. Then draw a parallel line for the upward boundary from the end of wave 3. Parallel channels help INCREASE your probability of wave counts, and also have a good direction of where simply support may be!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
14
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 4.1 - "Alternation"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 4.1, our FINAL chapter! In this sub chapter, we will learn the theory of alternation. In chapter 4, you will learn all of the applications and guidelines on how to connect a lot of the patterns that we learned in the previous chapters. The rule of alternation lies within the pattern of two corrective macro swings in a completed 5-wave sequence to alternate between a simple (very often an ABC) correction and one of the more complicated or complex Elliott corrections. In simple terms, as long as the general picture of the five wave structure is in tact, we can look for any alternations within the five wave structure. In even more simple terms, an alternation is basically a five wave structure that just has two different patterns within the overall trend. This is a very helpful observation on a macro perspective, because if Wave 2 unfolds as a simple ABC correction then probability will suggest that Wave 4 is more likely to unfold as a more complex correction. And vice-versa, if Wave 2 is complex, then you should anticipate that wave 4 is likely to unfold as a simple ABC pattern. That is it, literally. Chapter 4 Glossary: 4.1 Alternation 4.2 Channeling 4.3 Psychology 4.4 Fib-Ratio 4.5 Motive Wave Multiples 4.6 Corrective Wave Multiples ----- Alternation: Now that we have the understanding of all the theories and rules behind each pattern discussed in the previous chapters, we need to start understanding guidelines and applications. The first application that we must learn is the concept of 'alternations' In simple terms, alterations occur when you are analyzing the markets and you expect the next common pattern to occur, that differs from the previous related pattern as shown in the above example. If you look at the above graph, the first example shows that: • Wave 2 corrects rather sharp against the major trend to the expected 61.8% Fibonacci level. • Wave 4 on the other hand is more of a sideways correction and only corrects to the 38.2% Fibonacci level. ❗NOTE: Wave 2 is usually a 'zig-zag' pattern which corrects much of the price movement and wave 4 is either a flat, triangle, double or triple three correction whose purpose lies in the extension of duration (accumulation phase). On the right of the graph, we can see alternations within the actual waves within themselves. Not only does an alternation take place between different primary waves, but but you can have alternations inside of the waves, too. Let's look at the two corrections: they are both showing an (A),(B),(C) pattern, but differ in the actual development of the pattern itself. 1. In the first variation example, wave (A) is made of an ABC Flat correction, which is followed by an ABC Zig-Zag correction that forms a wave (B). 2. The second variation represents the exact opposite. In both cases the second component of the correction (Wave (B)), varies from the first component. → BOTH of these corrections finish with a classic wave (C), which is a five-wave countertrend movement. Confused? Re-read over and over.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
27