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Macroeconomic Analysis And Trading Ideas

The Influence of Central Banks on Forex TradingThe global foreign exchange (Forex) market constitutes a vast and intricate financial ecosystem in which currencies from across the globe are traded. This marketplace witnesses the exchange of trillions of dollars on a daily basis, rendering it among the most liquid and dynamic markets on earth. Amidst this bustling activity, central banks play a pivotal role, especially through their institutional obligation to determine and conduct the country’s monetary policy. In this article, we will delve into the crucial influence that these major players exert on currency pairs and explore the role of central banks in the forex market. Central Banks and Their Roles Central banks are the main financial institutions in a country and serve as custodians of the domestic currency. They steer economic activity mainly through the money supply, which is influenced by setting a reference rate for domestic banks to borrow and lend money. Thus, by targeting specified central bank interest rates, a central bank sets exchange rates through the market forces of demand and supply. Anticipated hikes or cuts in interest rates are conveyed throughout all financial markets well in advance of official announcements, influencing the decision-making of traders and investors. Impact of Central Bank Foreign Exchange Measures on Forex Trading Central banks have numerous instruments to manage the foreign exchange rates of their domestic currencies, including different rate regimes, central bank foreign exchange interventions, and interest rates. Exchange Rate Regimes and Their Effects Two major regimes determine the framework within which central banks operate and influence the broader financial landscape. Fixed exchange rate regimes involve pegging the local currency to a specific measure of value, often a major international currency like the US dollar. The stability of this kind of central bank exchange rate can be attractive; however, it limits the ability to independently manage the interest rate in the central bank policy. Here, interventions are typically geared towards maintaining the established peg. Conversely, floating exchange rate regimes provide the flexibility to determine the interest rates, as well as use all other vital tools for achieving monetary policy objectives. Central Bank Foreign Exchange Interventions Currency interventions are a common strategic tool in central bank foreign exchange policies, and they can cause notable fluctuations in forex. A direct intervention occurs through the direct buying or selling of the local currency. This action is often used to stabilise or manipulate the exchange rate in the desired direction. Buying increases demand, and the forex rate of the currency appreciates. Selling does the opposite. An indirect intervention involves adjusting target interest rates to influence investors' perceptions and behaviour. This involves actual raising or lowering; however, it can also include giving out subtle signals and implications through public statements made by officials. Central Bank Interest Rates and Their Influence Decisions regarding targeted central bank interest rates are at the heart of monetary policy. Depending on the general economic stance, the monetary authority has the option to raise rates (or keep them high) or lower them (or keep them low). Hawkish Monetary Policy Hawkish monetary policy refers to a stance that favours higher interest rates. This approach is also known as contractionary monetary policy, and it is adopted when the central bank seeks to combat high inflation or cool down an overheated economy. Hawkish policies are conducted by raising central bank interest rates, leading to an increase in capital inflows due to the expectation of better returns. The demand for the local currency rises, leading to its appreciation relative to foreign currencies, which is also reflected in the central bank forex rates. Dovish Monetary Policy Conversely, a dovish monetary policy involves favouring lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth by encouraging investments into the real economy. Lower rates can make borrowing cheaper and encourage spending and investment in the real economy. That may potentially weaken the demand for the domestic currency as it becomes less attractive to investors seeking higher returns, causing depreciation in the exchange rate. Central Bank Interest Rate Instruments The primary objectives of central banks are to maintain low and stable inflation, promote economic growth, and improve the purchasing power of the domestic currency, which in turn should provide for a healthy labour market and encourage strong consumption. Several instruments are available for that purpose. Open market operations (OMO) are the main tools for achieving the targeted interest rates. The impact on forex rates follows these decisions and actions. OMO refers to the buying or selling of securities (typically government bonds) in the open market. Buying injects money into the system, indirectly lowering banks’ interest rates, while selling acts in the opposite action. Another instrument that explains the role of a central bank in the forex market is the discount rate at which commercial financial institutions can borrow money from the central financial authority. Adjusting it adds/removes liquidity from money markets. The reserve requirements are another available instrument. Modifying the percentage of total liquid assets to be held by financial institutions as reserves can either enhance or diminish domestic currency liquidity and affect interest rates. In their pursuit of specific objectives, central banks wield a direct influence over forex trading. Fluctuations in central bank interest rates significantly impact currency values, can cause severe volatility, and create lucrative arbitrage opportunities for forex traders. Interest Rate Differentials: Opportunities for Traders Interest rate differentials are observed when there are gaps between the central banks’ interest rates. A higher interest rate in one country can lead to an influx of foreign capital, strengthening its currency. Respectively, when one country raises its rates while another keeps them lower, it creates a differential that attracts capital towards the higher-yielding currency, causing its appreciation and also a higher forex rate. If you are interested in exploring trading opportunities, you can head over to FXOpen and try out the TickTrader trading platform. Central Bank and Foreign Exchange Related Events Traders use economic calendars to plan their strategies and stay ahead of potential opportunities or risks. Important announcements include employment reports, GDP releases, inflation figures, and consumption numbers. Yet, among the most closely followed events by traders are central bank interest rate decisions, as they have a profound impact on currency exchange rates and financial markets. The timing and frequency of these announcements are known well in advance. For instance, in the US, the Federal Reserve holds eight scheduled meetings throughout the year, the European Central Bank conducts meetings every six weeks, while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England typically hold meetings on a monthly basis. Several weeks after they announce the target rates themselves, many central banks release the so-called “Minutes” – a detailed record of their latest monetary policy meeting. The “Minutes” can be of crucial importance as they offer a deeper insight into the discussions and deliberations among the officials and may provide insights into their future intentions and assessment of the economic outlook. Trading Behaviour Around Major Interest Rate Releases Trading before and after major interest rate announcements is challenging. Before a major announcement, traders consider the forecasts based on previously released economic data. If the expected rate estimate is in favour of a rate hike, appreciation of the respective currency is likely, and traders will buy it; otherwise, if data speaks for a rate cut, currency depreciation can be expected, and traders will sell. Traders typically avoid holding open positions during an announcement. This way, the risk is mitigated, as, during an announcement, rapid, unpredictable movements of currency pairs can occur, especially if the actual announced rate differs from market expectations. After the announcement, new positions can be opened. Conclusion Central banks are formidable players in the forex market, wielding significant influence through their monetary policy decisions and interventions. Traders and investors must closely monitor the authority’s actions and signals, as these can create substantial profit opportunities and risks in the dynamic world of forex trading. Curious about exploring the vivid world of forex trading? You can consider opening an FXOpen account that will grant you advanced trading opportunities. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
3
Central-Bank-Digital-CurrenciesHello, Welcome to this analysis about Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies in which I will explore the ongoing process by central banks to generate Digital-Currencies that replicate the individual Fiat-Currency, its characteristics, its possible manifestations, and its differences to the classical cryptocurrencies we all know as Bitcoin or Ethereum created in the beginning. Since Cryptocurrency was invented by the esteemed Satoshi Nakamoto publishing the open-source white-paper about Bitcoin as a completely decentralized Peer-To-Peer Digital-Currency which supply is limited and is generated through mining and the Proof-Of-Work concept many other decentralized cryptocurrencies emerged such as Ethereum or Litecoin that approved a secure and stable way of payment solutions operating within the determined blockchains. This completely new form of currency and the digital interface was watched by critics as well as supporters and a hype created with cryptocurrency enthusiasts accelerating the innovation process in cryptocurrency. On the other side, banks and governments watched the Cryptocurrency development not always with a non-critical eye, and especially in this process central banks took a greater study into the technology and the idea came into the foreground for digital currencies held and issued by the central banks that should replicate the real fiat-money which is printed by the central banks and distributed through commercial banks. The digital currencies that should be issued by the central banks became the name CBDC (Central-Bank-Digital-Currency) and today many countries' central banks started to work on pilot projects and prototypes to launch the digital replicate of fiat money, in some countries they are already launched and implemented in the economy. __ - Comparing The Classical Concept Of Cryptocurrency To The Central Bank Concept Of Digital-Currency The main characteristics of the classical cryptocurrency like invented in 2009 are that it is decentralized and that its supply is limited while the bitcoins are generated through the mining process there can be no more than 21 Million Bitcoins at all that defines the value of Bitcoin as miners need to improve the technological alignments to rightly mine the Bitcoins and come up with a mining-revenue to keep the process ongoing. On the other side, there is fiat money which is printed in the central bank printing press and which supply can be multiplied by will especially in times of crisis as it was in the last year the money supply increased exponentially by the central banks, this has an inflationary character and comes up with many other issues as in times of crisis the central banks need to print always more and more money as before. Now the fiat money printed by the central banks is issued to commercial banks with zero interests at this time and from there is supplied to the merchants and persons who taking up credits and which account money is held in a bank account as a "digital back-up" by the printed fiat money, the tendency with this bank account money is also to be multiplied by the banks and moved around in the system to be taken for credits so that one holds money in an account while it is used for the other individual's credit. Now as the central banks working on the digital currencies to substitute the fiat money in circulation the biggest difference is that its supply is not limited like it is in Bitcoin or many other cryptocurrencies, as the central bank fiat money can be printed further this is also the case with the upcoming central-bank-digital-currencies. Besides that the central-bank-digital-currencies are not decentral because they are issued by a central authority like the central bank, the system on which the CBDC is settled can be decentral however on a broader scale it is still centralized by the individual central bank, there is still a difference if the CBDC model is indirect, direct or hybrid nevertheless it is always centralized as the intern blockchain is created by the certain central bank. Another factor is also privacy as the public Bitcoin blockchain does not store any private user information, depending on the model with a CBDC this can be very different as there is indeed the possibility that private user information is stored in the blockchain by the central bank. Taking all these assumptions into consideration it comes to the conclusion that CBDCs aren't the same as the classical cryptocurrencies in common sense, it is rather a system that replaces the fiat money with digital money and gives the central bank much better opportunities to handle, store and track it with a faster network and potential storage of data. __ - Examining Models On How Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies Can Function With the gained assumptions it is important to note that there are different type models under which CBDCs can operate. Every model has its own characteristics and handles money circulation in an altered cycle. Besides that, the different models can have very different effects on the economy and especially on sectors like the banking industry or payment solution providers. Furthermore, the types on how payment data and information is stored differ within these models. It is highly necessary to recognize these concepts to assume how the CBDC infrastructure affects the economical landscape. The Indirect CBDC Model Within this model, the central bank keeps track records of wholesale accounts by the commercial bank as an intermediary between the central bank and the persons or merchants. The consumer as the person or merchant has a claim with the intermediary as the commercial bank and handles payments with the commercial bank. In this case, the intermediary handles all the communication with the consumer as retail clients and its net payment information, sending payment messages and storing the data. It would be a similar model to the actual credit distribution that exists with credits given by the central banks to commercial banks and from these distributed to the persons or merchants. The Direct CBDC Model The Direct CBDC Model functions differently from the Indirect one as the payments are handled directly between the central banks and the persons or merchants, in this case, receives, stores, and processes the information given by the consumer. This model is much more functional and practicable for the central bank as the commercial banks as intermediaries aren't necessary for the gateway. A full-scale implementation of this model will cause a higher decrease in commercial banks at all of which the sector already struggles, the model would further this process. The model would also set the central bank as the central authority handling all the payment relevant mechanisms with the consumer as persons or merchants. The Hybrid CBDC Model In this model the Persons or Merchants have a direct claim on the CBDC with the central bank while an intermediary, in this case, a PSP (Payment-Service-Provider) keeps track of the payments information and handles direct payments, the PSP in this case does not need to be a bank essentially. It is also integrated within that when technical issues come up with failures in the system that the central bank can handle direct payments with the consumers and restore retail balances. This system offers more flexibility at the cost of a more complex infrastructure to operate for the central bank. Besides that, it has a similar negative effect on the banks like the direct model as banks arent necessarily needed for the payment communication. __ It is not unlikely that the development of Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies will keep going within the upcoming times, therefore it is necessary to elevate how these diverging models can affect the actual economy. As many countries moving on with the projects and prosecution of CBDCs these will be realized in a more fulfilled way with a high possibility and it will be an important question on central banks will govern these CBDCs as they aren't decentralized like the cryptocurrency roots they can not be held as a direct comparison to these and are indeed a fiat money replication in digital terms, it will definitely open new doors for the central-banks money policy however what it has for effects on consumers as peoples or merchants is a serious examination. Thank you, for watching, it was important for me to scrutinize the significance of Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies and elevate a perception to this omnipresent topic. In this manner what do you have for an opinion of Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies implementation? Let us know in the comments below. Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by VincePrince
40
Algorithm vs Liquidity In Determining PriceBased on my research into IPDA and algorithms, central banks, trading firms/hedge funds, and smaller banks use execution algos (EAs) for trading with different objectives. Small banks use EAs to split large parent orders into smaller child orders generally in one direction, buy or sell. These orders are executed separately over a period of time to either open or close positions. Trading firms and hedge funds use opportunistic EAs to buy and sell to turn a profit. Central banks use market making EAs to buy and sell in order to bring liquidity providers net positions back to or close as possible to neutral. (This sounds like equilibrium). Central banks use EAs cautiously and only during their main trading hours and always under the supervision of people. A key reason for using EAs is to access multiple liquidity pools in order to reduce market impact or footprint. This is similar to a parent child relationship between Central Bank algos and other smart money players, where smart money (including central banks) accumulate orders in consolidation before expanding price, then the central bank algo pulls them back to equilibrium like a parent calling their child that has strayed too far away. Then they rinse and repeat. I am of the opinion that with the function of central bank algos to facilitate the provision of liquidity with minimal market impact, that liquidity itself is the determining factor in price delivery. Algos used by smart money break up large orders in to smaller chunks and funnel them to multiple liquidity providers (market makers) for fulfillment since forex is decentralized. If there is enough liquidity (buyers and sellers) to open/close positions at a certain price then it is done at that price. When liquidity is low or there aren't enough buyers and sellers at the current price, the market maker's algo has to fill these received orders where there is enough liquidity based on available buyers and sellers. The algos move very quickly which can deplete available buy or sell orders rapidly leaving unfilled counter party orders in its wake which defines liquidity voids (imbalance). Algo adjustments to meet buyers and sellers at their price is perceived as a stop hunt but it's just economics. Example: If I must sell something and I want to sell it for $100 but no one is willing to pay $100, I would have to look for buyers willing to pay $95. If I must buy something and I only want to pay $100 but the seller is charging HKEX:105 , then I have to pay $105. Either the buyer crosses the spread to meet the seller or the seller crosses the spread to meet the buyer. When there are limit and stop orders the buyer or seller isn't moving so the liquidity provider has to move to meet these buyers/sellers at their limit or stop order prices (including orders left behind in liquidity voids). When the orders trigger and price reverses it takes out both buyers and sellers so people call it a hunt, but I'm sure it is intended for actual institutional trading entities because retail traders such as ourselves can not provide the liquidity to be on the other side of every order placed by institutions. We are simply collateral damage in the battle between financial titans seeking to provide and tap into liquidity.
Education
by MartialChartsFX
How to use ECONOMIC INDICATORS for informed trading decisionsHello everyone! Here you have some information that I consider useful on how to interpret and use economic indicators and data to make informed trading decisions in the foreign exchange market: GDP (Gross Domestic Product) - GDP is a measure of a country's economic output and is considered to be one of the most important indicators of economic growth. A higher GDP indicates a stronger economy, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Unemployment Rates - Unemployment rates measure the percentage of the workforce that is currently without a job. A low unemployment rate indicates a strong economy, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Inflation - Inflation measures the rate at which the average price level of a basket of goods and services in an economy is increasing. High inflation can lead to a decrease in demand for the country's currency, while low inflation can lead to an increase in demand. Interest Rates - Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are set by central banks. High interest rates can attract foreign investment, leading to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Trade Balance - The trade balance measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Political Stability - Political stability is an important factor to consider when trading in the foreign exchange market. A stable political environment can lead to an increase in demand for a country's currency, while political instability can lead to a decrease in demand. In summary, GDP, unemployment rates, inflation, interest rates, trade balance and political stability are important economic indicators to keep an eye on when making trading decisions in the foreign exchange market. By considering these indicators, along with other market conditions, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell a particular currency. Please note that the above information is not a financial advice and only for educational purpose, Economic indicators are important but not the only factor to consider while making trading decisions and It's always important to do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance before making any trades.
Education
by m_maia14
THE IMPACT OF INTEREST RATES ON FOREX MARKETHello again! Interest rates can have a significant impact on the forex market , as they can affect the demand for and supply of different currencies. In general, higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment and increase the demand for a currency, as investors can earn a higher return on their investments. This can lead to an appreciation of the currency in the foreign exchange market. On the other hand, lower interest rates may discourage foreign investment and reduce the demand for a currency, leading to a depreciation of the currency in the forex market. Interest rates can also affect the attractiveness of a country's assets, such as stocks and bonds, which can in turn affect the demand for its currency. For example, if a country has high interest rates, its assets may be more attractive to foreign investors, leading to an increase in demand for the country's currency. In addition to the interest rate level, the direction and pace of change in interest rates can also affect the forex market. If a central bank is expected to increase interest rates in the near future, it may lead to an appreciation of the currency, as investors anticipate higher returns on their investments. On the other hand, if a central bank is expected to lower interest rates, it may lead to a depreciation of the currency. Overall, the relationship between interest rates and the forex market is complex and can be influenced by a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inflation expectations, and global market conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by m_maia14
ECONOMIC CYCLE & INTEREST RATESHello traders and future traders! The state of an economy can be either growing or shrinking. When an economy is growing, it typically leads to improved conditions for individuals and businesses. Conversely, when an economy is shrinking or experiencing a recession, it can have negative consequences. The central bank works to maintain a stable level of inflation and support moderate economic growth through the management of interest rates. What is an economic cycle? An economic cycle refers to the fluctuations or ups and downs in economic activity over a period of time. These cycles are typically characterized by periods of economic growth and expansion, followed by periods of contraction or recession. Economic cycles are often measured by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) and other economic indicators, such as employment, consumer spending, and business investment. Economic cycles can be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in monetary and fiscal policy, shifts in consumer and business confidence, and changes in global economic conditions. Economic cycles can also be influenced by external events, such as natural disasters or political instability. Understanding economic cycles is important for businesses, governments, and individuals, as it helps them anticipate and prepare for changes in the economy and make informed decisions about investment, hiring, and other economic activities. How is an economic cycle related to interest rates? Interest rates can be an important factor in the economic cycle . During a period of economic expansion, demand for credit typically increases, as businesses and consumers borrow money to make investments and purchases. As a result, interest rates may rise to control the demand for credit and prevent the economy from overheating. Higher interest rates can also encourage saving, which can help to balance out the increased spending that often occurs during an economic expansion. On the other hand, during a period of economic contraction or recession, demand for credit tends to decline, as businesses and consumers become more cautious about borrowing and spending. In response, central banks may lower interest rates to stimulate demand for credit and encourage economic activity. Lower interest rates can also make borrowing cheaper and more attractive, which can help to boost spending and support economic growth. Overall, the relationship between interest rates and the economic cycle can be complex and dynamic, and the direction and magnitude of changes in interest rates can depend on a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inflation expectations, and the goals and objectives of central banks and other policy makers. I hope you leant something new today!
Education
by m_maia14
FOMC Meeting Next Week: Bank of America Expects 50bp Rate Hike The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet next week, and investors are eagerly anticipating the outcome of the meeting. Bank of America Global Research has discussed its expectations for the meeting, saying that it expects the Fed to raise its target range for the federal funds rate by 50bp in December to 4.25-4.5%. According to Bank of America, the Fed has telegraphed this move over the last few weeks through its communications. However, the more important question is where the Fed will go next. Bank of America expects the median forecast for 2023 to move up by 50bp to 5.125%, which is consistent with its terminal rate. The bank also expects the dot plot to show 100bp of cuts each in 2024 and 2025. In addition, Bank of America expects the macro projections in the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) to be revised to show lower GDP growth and inflation than in September, and higher unemployment. At the press conference following the FOMC meeting, Bank of America expects Chair Powell to push back against easing in financial conditions and remind investors that a slower pace of hikes does not mean a lower terminal rate. The bank believes that Powell will stress that the Fed's job is far from done. Overall, Bank of America expects the FOMC meeting next week to be consistent with the Fed's previous communications and for there to be no major surprises or shifts in policy. Some Jargon Explained The Dot Plot The dot plot, also known as the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), is a visual representation of Federal Reserve policymakers' individual forecasts for where they think key interest rates will be in the coming years. The dot plot shows the central tendency, or the middle of the range, of the individual forecasts for the federal funds rate. Each participant in the FOMC meeting provides their own individual forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year, as well as over the longer run. These forecasts are then plotted on a chart, with the dots representing the individual forecasts and the lines connecting the dots indicating the median of the group's forecasts. The dot plot is released four times per year, along with the FOMC's policy statement, and provides insight into the collective thinking of FOMC members about the future path of interest rates. It is an important tool for investors to gauge the future direction of monetary policy. The Terminal Rate The terminal rate, also known as the long-run federal funds rate or the equilibrium real interest rate, is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve believes is consistent with the long-run health of the economy. It represents the level of the federal funds rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and is expected to prevail in the long run, once the economy has reached its full employment and price stability goals. The terminal rate is not a fixed number, and can change over time depending on a variety of factors such as changes in the underlying productivity and demographic trends of the economy. The Federal Reserve uses the terminal rate as a reference point when setting its short-term interest rate targets. In general, the terminal rate is expected to be lower than the current federal funds rate, as the Fed typically raises interest rates in the short run to prevent the economy from overheating and then lowers them in the long run to support economic growth. This means that the terminal rate can provide important information about the future direction of monetary policy.
TVC:US10YEducation
by JoelWarby
Thoughts on the current environmentThese are my comments from some conversations I had and I hope you like it :) It is a weird environment overall, as the market is pretty cheap, the derivatives markets are fairly well balance, on chain data & stablecoins paint a bullish picture for crypto... but in terms of TA and the overall psychology of the market, getting to anywhere between 20-28k & 1300-1700 at some point in 2022 is quite likely. I just have no idea when. In late Jan around 37.5k and 2600 I turned bullish in the short term as the market showed strength, it was very cheap and sentiment was really bearish. We are at a fairly similar situation now, only that we did have the pump up to 46k. To me that was always the key point we'd have to retest and as that was hit, the next one is 24k. The same way we perfectly filled the 32-33k CME gap and bottomed, we are going for that one too. In the short term however I see similar dynamics as people are scared, the market is cheap and we are bouncing at support. The price action of both crypto and stocks is telling me that yesterday's bottom was at 'do or die' level which means we've either bottomed now or if we go below that we'd go much lower. Who knows, maybe it's just temporary relief and we could go up by another 3-7% before reversing lower. In terms of the macro picture I think it is very unclear but also pretty clear. The global economy is turning into shit and tensions are rising. People aren't happy, be that inflation or mandates. To me unfortunately we will soon be reliving the period of 194x. Same way 1929 =2008, 1936-1938 = 2020-2022. Poor financial conditions have lead to the rise of authoritarianism, with governments scrambling to gain as much power, while people lose faith in them. There is too much debt and everyone is in a whole that is very hard to get out of. People are losing their minds and tensions then start to manifest internally and externally. Unfortunately history repeats itself and that's what we as traders/investors are doing, we need to learn from it as human beings are the same now as they were 10, 100, 1000, 10000 years ago. Nothing new under the sun. Like Su Zhu said in a tweet the other day twitter.com . This is one of the best tweets I've ever read and I truly mean it. So if that's the period we are in, what do we do? What could come next? Bond yields will go down in one way or another, while inflation stays high. For now we are at a point that bond yields are rising and have some room, until they come crashing down. The Fed will be forced to cut and to support the government. The Gov + Fed will have to do a lot of printing that will be met with very little resistance by the public. We'll be united against a common threat. And to be honest this is usually the only way out of this debt hole. Unfortunately a war and insane amount of currency debasement is the only politically viable way to reduce debt and do a reset. I hate the people who want to push for the 'great reset', but a reset is coming. It's a natural cycle, these always happen and they are usually not nice. But it's like the phoenix rising from its ashes. A rebirth. Now when I say bond yields will have to go down, I think it will be a combination of the Fed trying to keep them low, but also people chasing the safest and most liquid instruments. Most people in such a period won't want to take risks. Low bond yields = not many opportunities anyways. So then we have high inflation + no opportunities + disruptions + tensions + less freedom and so on. So of course we are in the right market. If the physical world is suffering and there could be wars here and there (I have no idea at what scale), then the digital one should be booming. With sanctions and accounts getting frozen, while governments do insane amounts of QE, this is the place to be. Make no mistake, they will come after us to some extend at some point, but as long as we try to preserve some privacy and keep our coins/tokens in our wallets, we might be safe and able to go to locations that we can protect our wealth. Now the issue is, how do we get there? How do interest rates go down again and the bull market resume? Well to be honest I currently feel like we are somewhere in Q4 2019 - Q1 2020 or Q3-Q4 2018. We are close to having a last major leg down, before a major leg up. One catalyst (rate hikes, higher inflation, war), I don't know what... that will lead to the final shakeout which will trigger a huge monetary & fiscal response. This fractal I've mentioned on my previous ideas is what I still expect. twitter.com This is great, but I completely disagree with one part: 'it is unwise to assume that Central banks will respond with more stimulus if inflation is rising'. At the current environment I am a disinflationist, but at the end of the day I know they will have to print. In the past it was banks that printed, but since 2008 banks aren't creating much money... The worse things get, they more risk averse they become. Now we are in a situation that is nowhere near like 1987, but more like 1940s and it something Lyn Alden has been talking about for quite some time. There are big differences from then to now of course, but the setup in terms of Governments - Central Banks - Banks is very similar. What people need to understand is that we are getting inflation mostly not because because of issues on the supply side, not so much by Fed & Gov actions. These issues could become worse, in an environment where banks aren't lending, there is too much debt, too much uncertainty, overvalued stock markets, ESG mandates and so on. The yield curve flattening so much is a sign that the Fed might not even be able to raise rates more than a couple of times, and that in 2023 they might be forced to cut. Think of it like this... Prices are going up and people aren't making enough money to keep up with inflation. The way things are going they won't be making much, so they need someone to give them money. Who are they going to ask for that money? The government. If prices are going up, they will demand more, something that could create an inflationary spiral. Except if, maybe, by creating a CBDC to control everything they will be able to control inflation. They want full control of the banking system and where people spend their money. For example if there is a shortage of milk, they might be like OK with your account you can only buy 1 litre / week. The majority of people think that vaccine passports are about reducing the spread and that them being used as a gateway for a CBDC is a conspiracy theory. Well in my country they already created an app called government wallet that can contain your ID + vaccine certificate. Wouldn't it be nice connect your bank cards + accounts in there and route all transactions through the government directly? It's been extremely clear that that's the goal. It is their belief, and it is possible, that by having total control over the monetary system they will control inflation. But at this stage, they will be forced to do something. Let's no forget they always printed/borrowed for wars. And let's no forget that in the case of a war, they won't care about inflation. They will shut down the debate about inflation as they have a bigger goal. Markets crashing + Russia going for Ukraine & China for Taiwan, and they will be nah, we'll raise interest rates. Let's not forget that they can't let markets crash completely. The eurodollar & US bond markets are screaming loud and clear : you raise rates a few times at best and then you go back to cutting. So if they have to save markets again and can't fight inflation, then it's time for Universal Basic Income as this is the last time they will only save markets and not ordinary folks. At the end of the day, the situation with passive investing and the whole structure of the system in general has gone too far. They can't do anything to fix it, and they most certainly aren't capable of fixing it. Replacing the old system with a new one won't be easy and there will many shocks along the way, but I have no doubt that crypto and commodities are the best place to be in this environment. End of rand😝
TVC:VIXEducation
by BitcoinMacro
1
BITCOIN IN PERSPECTIVE How many times have you heard that bitcoin is very expensive? How many times have you heard that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme? PERSPECTIVE. That is what is needed to combat some of the myths that surround this cryptocurrency, which will probably take part in the digital economy. Regarding the first question, is $1T too much capitalization for a finite, decentralized and immutable asset, which could gradually update our entire economy? I do not think so. Could a Ponzi scheme hold 1% of all global currency for more than a decade? I do not think so. So is Bitcoin too expensive from a macroeconomic perspective? I do not think so. Before you buy Bitcoin. What are your reasons? A decision without a plan is guided by emotions. Profitability and emotions don't get along very well. Perspective. See you later.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by CryptoAlkaline
GBPUSD - basic Interest Rates StudyThis is a simple study of how interest rates influence the market. I included 10 last values in my indicator. The base currency (GBP) is black. The second currency (USD) is red. Between June and December, FED (USD) increased the interest rates 3 times by 0.250 BoE (GBP) also increased the interest rates by the same number but only once. Obviously, this was a catalyst for a major bearish move. Not only that the rates difference had already been bearish at a time. The gap between the rates further increased! But look at the moment when BoE increased their rates. Even if insignificant for the long-term, it started a good counter-trend rally in the short-term. In 2019, FED decreased the rate a few times, hence the difference changed a little in favor of GBP. At look how long the pair grew. It even smashed the previous highs until it resumed its downward trend based on the rate difference. March 2020 was full of interest rate changes across all currencies. When BoE dropped the rate a little (in relative terms), FED decreased the dollar's interest rate rather drastically leading to a more than a year and a half long rally. Although it is losing its steam, it might yet continue for a while. I created two indicators that can be used to study these relations and create a long-term vision once the rates change again (might take a moment to update). You can find them both in the public library :)
Education
by OrcChieftain
1
How I work in Forex: Nzd-Usd analysisIn this article, I show you my way of working in Forex, starting with the choice of the currency pair, passing through all aspects of the operation (position size, maximum loss, etc.), until the analysis of the currency pair and the strategy to be adopted (entry-level, stop-loss and target). Looking at the table of currency pairs I follow, the one that caught my eye was Usd-Nzd. The price is at a level that is not sustainable in the long run for the New Zealand economy. In the last few years, the area 0.72300/0.72800 has been a very important level for Nzd-Usd and above that, the currency pair would be in an area of excess price (actually, already above 0.70000 Nzd-Usd is in an area of excess price). The operation that I am going to open has an optical of the medium-long period, if you are not in a position to hold open the position also for several months, do not replicate it. Let us proceed. The first thing I decide in each of my operations is how much I am willing to lose. My maximum loss is not equal for all the operations, with some more "particular" I have a smaller propensity to the risk. An example is precisely this operation. Although Nzd-Usd belongs to the currency pairs so-called "Majors," the New Zealand dollar is very similar to an "Exotic" currency, therefore with less volume and consequently more volatile and easily speculate. And besides, I already have other long positions on USD. For these reasons, I have decided that my maximum loss on the whole operation is $ 500, and based on the stop-loss, I will decide the position size to open. I now analyse Nzd-Usd trying to understand how it might move in the coming weeks and establish the type of trade and the entry-level. Above, you can see the daily chart with the Nzd-Usd sensitive levels highlighted. New Zealand had less impact from the covid-19 pandemic and this allowed its economy to be less affected. This led to a strong rise in its currency to the 0.75000 area against the US dollar. New Zealand, however, has a strongly export-based economy and a currency so strong, as mentioned earlier, is not sustainable in the long run. The New Zealand dollar also strengthened as many expected the central bank to intervene with a rate hike, "the Committee agreed that the risks to the economic outlook remain balanced, conditional on ongoing stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies. The Committee agreed that, in line with its least regrets framework, it would not remove monetary stimulus until it had confidence that it is sustainably achieving the consumer price inflation and employment objectives. Given that uncertainty remains elevated, gaining this confidence is expected to take considerable time and patience." However, this is currently unlikely, at least in the short term. Also because in recent months the New Zealand economy has slowed down, "Economic activity in New Zealand slowed over the summer months following the earlier rebound in domestic activity. December quarter GDP was weaker than expected and more recent indicators suggest that momentum has reduced. Some members noted that supply chain disruptions could potentially constrain domestic activity in the near term. In addition, business credit growth and investment remain subdued." As for the US, the focus in recent weeks has been on inflation following the entry into force of Biden's economic stimulus plan, "with inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal (2%), the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 per cent for some time so that inflation averages 2 per cent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well-anchored at 2 per cent." In the March "Summary of Economic Projections," the PCE inflation forecast for 2021 rose to 2.4% from 1.8% in December, and the Core PCE inflation forecast rose to 2.1% from 1.8% in December. Inflation is forecast at 2.0% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2022 for both. In the same document, you can see (you can find it on the Federal Reserve's website) that in March compared to December the GDP forecast was raised (to 6.5% in 2021 from 4.2% in December) and the unemployment rate lowered (to 4.5% in 2021 from 5.0% in December). Macroeconomic analysis shows what has already emerged above with New Zealand's data deteriorating in recent months while US data is improving almost steadily. If the vaccination continues apace, the US economy will recover quickly, as the UK economy is doing in Europe. Once the analysis is complete, how do I intend to proceed? I do not want to open the operation at once. The moment is particular and I would not be surprised to see Nzd-Usd go up even 300 pips. So, I decided to open a spy order at 0.72400 to see how the currency pair will react to that level. I will place the primary order, which is larger in size as it is closer to the stop-loss, at 0.73700. For both orders, spy order and primary order, I destine the same maximum loss, which I had decided to be $ 500, so my maximum loss for the two types of orders is $ 250 each. Now with the Value-at-Risk, I calculate the stop-loss and with the stop-loss, I calculate the size of the two orders. To be precise, I use CVaR to calculate the stop-loss (it is all explained in my book on fundamental analysis in forex) and the calculation gives me a stop-loss at 0.75200. I now calculate the two position sizes. Ultimately, I will open a short position of $ 9,000 at 0.72400 (spy order) and a short position of $ 17,000 at 0.73700 (primary order), with a stop-loss at 0.75200. As for the target, I always like to see how the currency pair moves to assess where to take profit. This, somewhat summarised, is how I work in Forex, how I analyse a currency pair and how I organise the whole operation.
Education
by TradingwDavid
2
The Top 5 Fundamental Currency DriversThe goal of this article is to understand what really moves the markets. 1. Central Bank Decisions These organizations manage the countries monetary system and policy. They control the countries money supply and operate through specific mandates. Stable inflation is a common mandate applicable to the majority of central banks. Interest rates are a crucial tool used by them to reach their mandates. Changes in interest rates have a tremendous impact on the Forex markets. Rate decisions from central banks can cause lots of volatility. They’re also great opportunities for making money. For this reason, interest rates should be something all Forex traders monitor. Good to start here as a beginner in fundamentals. 2. Economic News Releases News releases like: GDP Gross Domestic Product CPI Consumer Price Index Employment Data like average earnings, NFP, and unemployment Rate could have a huge impact on interest rate decisions and traders always have expectations on these releases if it differs from it market reacts. 3. Geopolitical Events Politicians are an important part of the market moves. Investors seek stable economies, also tax decisions and fiscal policy decisions are drivers of the market. 4. Natural Disasters Things like earthquakes or tsunamis can negatively affect a country’s economy. 5. Intermarket Movements Equities Bonds and Commodities are all connected to each other so one spike in an asset class could lead to moves in the other asset classes too. Things like risk aversion and risk appetite are a daily play on the markets because the risk is a great factor of daily currency moves. Safe haven bids are bonds Japanese yen and Swiss franc in a market crash these assets have money inflows. Hope you enjoyed this small article for more information visit my website vitezabraham.com. Have a Nice day! Vitez
Education
by Vitezabraham
UNDERSTAND MACRO-FINANCE!WHILE ALL PRICES HAVE RISEN SINCE 1913 (THE CREATION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE), SOME HAVE DONE SO MORE THAN OTHERS! THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM HAS BECOME SO LARGE AND COMPLEX THAT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACE THE ACTUAL SIZE OF THE ENTIRE MONEY SUPPLY ( M3 )! WHEN IT COMES TO ESTIMATION, YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS ANY EXPERT'S! THE ONLY WAY TO DETERMINE IF M3 IS RISING OR FALLING IS BY LOOKING AT THE PRICE OF OIL , THE PRICE OF THE 1-MONTH TREASURY BILL AND THE YIELD CURVE, ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THERE WAS A DEFLATIONARY PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF 2020! STOCKS, WHICH ARE THE MOST FINANCIALIZED ASSET CLASS, HAVE SEEN THE GREATEST INCREASE IN PRICE, BECAUSE MUCH OF THE CREDIT THAT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM CREATES BIDS UP THEIR PRICE BEFORE ANYTHING ELSE! COPPER AND OIL , THE PRICES OF WHICH ARE MUCH MORE IMPACTED BY SUPPLY AND DEMAND CONDITIONS WITHIN THE REAL ECONOMY, HAVE BARELY MOVED IN COMPARISON AND REFLECT THE LACK OF REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE PAST HALF CENTURY! GOLD , FOR ANYONE WHO CONSIDERS ITS PRICE EVEN REMOTELY ELEVATED, HAS BARELY EVEN KEPT UP WITH THE INCREASE IN M2 (WHICH INCLUDES PHYSICAL CURRENCY, CHEQUING ACCOUNTS AND SOME SAVINGS ACCOUNTS). THROUGHOUT HISTORY, THE MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF GOLD HAS ALWAYS EVENTUALLY MATCHED THE TOTAL MONEY SUPPLY, AND THEREFORE THE PRICE OF GOLD MUST INCREASE BY SEVERAL TIMES EVEN FROM HERE TO BE VALUED CORRECTLY!
TVC:SPXEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
The best long-term indicatorOne of the main economic indicators for currency valuation is the real interest rate differential between the two countries / currencies. The large flows of fixed income always go to where there is the highest real yield, interest rate discounted from inflation. The carry trade. It is possible to see in the USDCAD example on the graph the great correlation between the interest rate differential and the appreciation / depreciation of each currency. Currently, this indicator does not seem to make much sense due to extremely low inflation and low interest rates in the worldwide. However, the big draw is to know where the economic recovery will be faster, will create more jobs and income, will lead to an increase in inflation and consequently to an increase in interest rates and currency appreciation. Make your bets! I would bet on Australia and Europe, maybe that's why the dollar is so weak.
Editors' picks
Education
by blacksheepforex
11
PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO THE FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds. PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S. JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE , COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION. -THE NOTES ON THE CHART REFLECT KEY EVENTS THAT MARKED THE PEAK IN THE U$D's EXCHANGE RATE VS OTHER CURRENCIES
INDEX:DXYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO TO FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds. PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S. JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE, COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION. -IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 0% YIELD ON U.S. 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND IS A DANGER ZONE IN EITHER CASE, AS FOREIGN ENTITIES WILL NO LONGER HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO HOLD U.S. TREASURIES, PREFERRING CASH, GOLD OR OTHER ASSETS OVER A NEGATIVE YIELDING BOND. -THE NOTES ON THE CHART OFFER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS AS TO WHY YIELDS BOTTOMED OR PEAKED AT VARIOUS POINTS DURING THIS BOND BULL MARKET.
TVC:US10YEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
UNDERSTAND THE EURODOLLAR!THE EURODOLLAR FUTURES CONTRACT REFLECTS THE L.I.B.O.R. INTEREST RATE (A BENCHMARK FOR THE INTEREST RATE AT WHICH MAJOR BANKS LEND TO EACH OTHER)! WHEN THE PRICE OF THE CONTRACT INCREASES, THE L.I.B.O.R. INTEREST RATE IS DECREASING, WHEN THE PRICE FALLS, IT IS INCREASING! THE PERIOD I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS POST IS THE PERIOD OF DOLLAR ILLIQUIDITY THAT OCCURRED IN THE LATE 00s-EARLY 10s! AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE INTERVENED AND PROVIDED LIQUIDITY, L.I.B.O.R. WAS SUPPRESSED, AND THE SIZE OF THE INTERVENTION ALMOST PUSHED THE RATE TO 0! THE SIZE OF THE INTERVENTION IS IMPORTANT IN THAT IT REFLECTS THE SIZE OF THE PROBLEM, INDICATING THAT THE GLOBAL LACK OF DOLLARS WAS SEVERE! WHILE THE INTERVENTION SUCCEEDED IN SUPPRESSING L.I.B.O.R. OVERALL, THERE WERE SEVERAL PERIODS DURING WHICH THE LACK OF AVAILABLE U$Ds CAUSED LENDING BETWEEN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TO CONTRACT, INCREASING L.I.B.O.R., CAUSING A NUMBER OF PROBLEMS AND FORCING FURTHER ACTION BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE! THE 2008 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS WAS NOT NECESSARILY CAUSED BY A REDUCTION IN U.S. HOME PRICES, BUT BY A SYSTEMIC BANKING DOLLAR SHORTAGE! THE LACK OF U$Ds REMAINS, AND HAS EVEN INCREASED, HOWEVER ENTIRE NATIONS ARE AT RISK OF SUFFERING THE CONSEQUENCES, NOT ONLY THEIR BANKS! NOW THE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS ARE: 1. IS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY NOW DEPENDENT ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE PROVIDING NEW U$Ds TO AVOID A COMPLETE DEFLATIONARY COLLAPSE? (MOST LIKELY YES) 2. IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE ABLE TO SATISFY THE INTERNATIONAL DEMAND FOR U$Ds, NOT IN TERMS OF AMOUNT, BUT IN TERMS OF DEPTH, REACHING FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND CORPORATIONS NOT DIRECTLY TIED TO THE MAJOR U.S. BANKS? (QUITE POSSIBLY NO, BUT THEY WILL TRY THEIR HARDEST) 3. IF WE ASSUME THIS IS THE DEATH RATTLE OF THE DOLLAR'S WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS, WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, THAT IT IS INFLATED AWAY OR THAT IT IMPLODES ON ITSELF? (I WOULD ARGUE GIVEN THE FED'S ACTIONS, THAT IT WILL BE INFLATED AWAY) 4. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE LOSS OF RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS OCCURS, A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS PROCESS WILL BRING ABOUT A COMPLETE SELL-OFF IN THE U.S. TREASURY MARKET, FORCING THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO COMPLETELY MONETIZE THESE BONDS TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING: IF THIS UNFOLDS, CAN ANY OTHER POSSIBILITY BUT HYPERINFLATION BE CONSIDERED? (NO)
GEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
5
GET READY: A big fortnight ahead!This is an educational post - compliant with the house rules on text-based contributions - showing some of the tension between monetary policy taken by the FED and real world fiscal issues at deeper levels. Click and drag chart if all text does not show. Thanks. The tension has caused whipsaws in the US Dollar, and price of Gold. The IMF has declared a global recession and several countries have gone into recession. Reputable opinion out there is that the world is heading for an economic depression based on a 50 to 75 year cycle, which is coinciding with a 10 year recessionary cycle. I have no doubt that central banks around the world will have limited success in propping up economies. I'm more concerned for the longer term view. Last week extreme volatility took a break compared to the previous week. The next 2 weeks could see a return of volatility to indices and forex markets. Stay safe, fellow traders.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
3
POV 4Y in a nutshell & what matters if you trade equity indicesThe following is just my point of view and not the single source of truth. Hence, I would appreciate any comment which would lead to a fruitful discussion. When you are trading equity indices, you are simply trading a bundle of cashflows (compromised by the companies within the index). If you are not a scalper (I am not) but rather a swing trader (what I try to do to finance my living/ family) you would do your analysis based on 4H, daily and weekly charts. But apart from that, the most important question is, is there any event, which affects the cashflows within the index. Then, is this effect temporary or permanent. Typical events which affects more or less all cashflows within an index: Interest rate (central banks) GDP (incl. e.g. unemployment rate...) Inflation (defines the price for goods, hence the cashflow) Costs (incl. e.g. workforce costs...) Solvency (i.e. of your customers and the solvency is driven by market liquidity and interest rates) Uncertainty (these are mainly political risks like war, trade war etc. but sometimes also natural disasters and usually temporary even if they last for 1-2 years) To better understand these cashflow drivers, lets take as an example - the DJ and lets walk through 4 years and a couple of events, which drove the ups/downs in the DJ (from my POV): When Mr. Trump won the election in 2016 he soon started to initiate a very important law, the corporate tax law . Which would reduce the corporate tax significantly, hence has a hugh positive impact on the cashflows. Today, companies profit significantly from the law and uses the profit to buyback own shares or just pay higher dividends. Many companies have chosen the first option, which has two effects: First, higher demand for the own shares (which usually increases prices) and secondly, every share which they buy increases the profit of the company since dividendes paid are paid to the company and increases the income of the company (cashflows from financial activities), which increases the value of the company. The market anticipated the new law and consequently increased the valuation of the companies, knowing (or betting) that the law would effect the cashflow positively and smooth out any overvaluation in the future. This explains why we saw such an increase in asset prices starting in July 2017 (6 months before the law would come into effect). This is why we have left the Obama-Trend Channel moved to the Corporate-Tax-Cut-Trend-Channel . Then two things happend at the same time , which was not anticipated by the market: Trump started a trade war with China in Feb. 2018 and the FED announced, that it would start the process of balance sheet normalization , hence reduce the liquidity in the market. Both have negative effect on corporate cashflows. At that time, nobody knew how much liquidity would be reduced by the FED, how many rate hikes we would see and how long the trade war would last and would the consequences would be. After 4 rate hikes and further escalation of the trade war, everyone in the markets was nuts. Apart from the fact, that sentiments were in panic modus due to uncertainty , you could not see such negative effects in the cashflow of the "healthy" companies, but companies with a lot of debt were in panic modus, because money became more and more expensive (keep in mind, we have a lot of zombie companies, i.e. negative cashflows. These companies hope to pay back the corporate debt with own share (actually they sell these share to us) or some of them really believe, they will become profitable in the future). On the peak of this panic modus Mr. Mnuchin organized a call with the CEO of the 6 major US banks . The day after, they started to buy like crazy (here I have to guess: probably Mr. Mnuchin told them, that the gov would increase the pressure on the FED to lower interest rates and that before the next election Mr. Trump would find a solution (interim solution) regarding the trade war.) During this 12 months many traders made a fortune or maybe have lost a lot, this mainly to uncertainty. So never underestimate uncertainty and try to keep calm. When the FED announced the end of the balance sheet normalization and induced afterwards USD 400 billion into the markets again, the current rally started, which was just shortly stopped by the coronavirus. In my opinion, the market (nobody want to say that) hopes, that Mr. Trump will be re-elected and that he is going to do even more tax cuts, this time for the middle class in order to boost demand, this would again lead us to a new trend channel: The "Corporate Tax Cut and Middle Class Tax Cut" trend channel. If he does not win the election, we would have again some uncertainty in the market. I focus on these above mentioned "cashflow drivers", but I do not care so much on all the little indicators (these may change sometimes daily/weekly. Nevertheless I have build a heat map, showing me, when to many indicators are declining). But I use also the technical analysis, especially to define when to enter a trade and when to exit a trade. And I am not always right, just recently I posted a trade (S&P) which proved how wrong someone can be (in this case I had underestimated the PBOC and the ECB). I hope you like my thoughts, if you disagree, just leave a comment and let's share our thoughts.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Chimbarosa