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BTCUSD BTFNX thoughtsI would like what currently I'm scared of on current graphics. Let's start with indicators analysis. As for me, I see a pretty good perspective for a BTC price. Currently, AO, MACD, Stoch RSI and RSI are awesome, I mean due to a daily chart all of them show that we can expect growth. Might be this could be confirmation that soon we will see the second shoulder and downtrend, but weekly charts are also good, due to indicators AO, MACD, Stoch RSI, and RSI are positive, also there is a huge bullish divergence on weekly MACD formed from 22 Jan 2018 with the first extremum on 14 Apr 2018 and second on 18 Jun 2018. But we have to be aware of the H&S pattern which is rather a strong pattern, due to indicators I'm 75% sure that we will see growth to the second shoulder. Soon we will see growth confirmation or the H&S, so be careful with it, and do not forget to set stop. As for me, I see a good perspective for a growth, let's say that I don't believe in a rapid growth, but I believe in a couple month growth. Due to the news, we have to expect good news in a couple of months ahead. Starting with CBOE BTC ETF verdict on 30th September, Nasdaq is about to add crypto trading on Gemini architecture in the second quarter, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), who own NYSE said that they are working on a BAKKT platform for exchange crypto for USD and BAKKT will be fully regulated. All of this is just a tip of an iceberg, lots of new positive updates are coming. Few words about crypto regulation in the USA. So, I don't think that people who work at the ICE, Nasdaq and other companies who work in a crypto sector are that stupid to invest that kind of money and not be sure that everything is going to be ok) I expect for a good perspective for a crypto in upcoming months. BTW I think current problems around crypto in the USA because of low volume on BTC futures.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by pmktyn
Sept 2018 BTC 4000/4500 or 7800?I was put the wrong chart in my last analysis and when I tried to rework again, tradingview just cleared all my chart so I have to do it from scratch ... Anyway, here's my analysis for next month! ------------------------- CBOE/CME BTC Future Conspiracy Theory ------------------------- Some claim that both CME/CBOE BTC future settlement date don't relate to the price of BTC going up or down at all. But it's fun to think about it because everytime CBOE/CME settle their profit, the price like to pump or dump from the top / or the bottom for 28-30% profit ( in short or long ) almost every time. ( check my previous arrow ). So that's why I believe that there must be something related to CBOE/CME BTC Future haha.. ------------------ My Analysis ------------------ Ok, since the month CBOE settlement date is on Sept 19, 2018. I think about some possibility as follow ( Current BTC price 5950 ) Scenario#1 : Price jump back to 6400-6500 after CBOE settlement date ( Aug 15 ) then dump down to 4500 due to ETF Rejection. * This kinda hard because market is kinda scare right now and people start to short if the price start to bounce back.. So it's really hard to happen. Scenario#2 : Price just staggering at 6000+- for a while, then dump to 4000 after ETF rejection * This is most possible scenario in my opinion, ETF will never get approve easily. Scenario#3 : ETF approved, price jump to 7800 * Just some hope in this cryptocurrency market lol.. ---------------- Since the market still very strong bearish...so keep shorting when price bounce might be the best strategy for now.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Real_inwCoin
CME Bitcoin Futures GapsLook at these boxes and how they affect price action and range. Wow bitcoin, very cool. When charting gaps like this, turn off magnet tool and enable "indicator values" in the chart formatting options so that the OHLC of BTC1!'s candles are viewable. Then use your preferred tool to create levels. Do note a majority of these gaps overlap due to their nature. In some cases, a gap may be a runaway gap. Many traders like to use these as areas of entry. Runaway gaps may be caused by exhaustion in the trend, ironically. If price is in a downward trend, there will be a moment where buyers capitulate and sellers are euphoric. In an upward trend, buyers are euphoric and short sellers feel short on logic. In the event of a runaway gap, expect price to pull back to where the gap is to "fill" the empty zone. A few of them are breakaways, too, where the break is caused by (usually) a fundamental reason. When a large breakaway gap occurs, the gap will become a support or resistance. A possible breakaway gap on the chart is the one on June 8th, 2018. A Korean exchange was hacked and bitcoin dropped to sub $7000 in a couple days.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by NeoButane
Bitcoin: CBOE Block Trades Detected At 0600, 13/7/18, CBOE /XBT August 18 Futures experience two large orders of 13,300 & 5,000 contracts respectively. The minimum size for a block trade is 50 contracts. No individual may control more than 5,000 contracts themselves. CBOE trades another 4,200 contracts between 2 and 3:30 Total daily volume reaches 21,834 contracts, the highest daily /XBT volume traded at the Chicago Board Options Exchange I noticed some very suspicious volume on the CBOE /XBT Aug 18 futures that totals to the amount of approx 22,000 contracts, which amounts to approx $162,800,000 USD assuming 1 BTC = $7400. Here is a chart detailing the daily timeframe, clearly showing the 22,000 contracts in volume: i.imgur.com Here is an intraday chart, with 90min candles. Note the volume: i.imgur.com Here is a 1 minute chart. This chart is very interesting as we can see the majority of the volume is coming from successive blocktrades of 500 contracts: i.imgur.com The total sum equates to ~$162,800,000, and considering they are all trades of 500 contracts at the same time, I assume these are all being made for/by the same individual. Additionally, its interesting the amount of slippage that occurred in this trade. This is NOT what an institution would usually do. However, given the limited number of products that can be used to hedge bitcoin, it may be an institutional investor. Finally, the timing of this trade relative to the spot price of BTCUSD gives us the largest clue as to what may be happening. With news of Bitcoin ETFs coming, it's possible that an institution has purchased a large sum of BTC spot and is opening a large sum of short future positions to hedge these assets until they are required. It's possible that they shorted the CBOE XBT contract first, and then later bought an equal sum of BTC (spot) valued at +$162,800,000 USD which caused the large spike in price over the last few days. It's also important to realise that this position may not be a complete hedge, and in fact the individual may have only hedged a quarter of the spot position, leaving them with positive BTC spot delta exposure. The /BTC contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) did not see any irregular volume. Here is a screenshot of the CME contract for reference: i.imgur.com Here you can see the contract spec for the /XBT futures contract at the CBOE. Note that no 'person' can control more than 5,000 contracts and that blocktrades have a minimum requirement of 50 contracts: cfe.cboe.com If anyone is knowledgeable about this trade please PM me. What's up with the slippage?
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn2421992
32
Update on CME & CBOE FUtures impact and forecast of BTCs we see on the expiry dates of both CME and CBOE -1.72% futures , Bitcoin -0.31% price generally drops heavily. This trend has to end at some point and always comes back from the dip level (6K-7K) that is defined when those companies announced they will launch those futures . This is the time the financial wolves joined the game and became market makers. This dip is the exact bitcoin -0.31% price when it was announced. So I'm pretty sure we will not go below. I don't know how many cycles it will take to boost and market makers play the bull, we will see but at some point this will happen. Also the cycles of shorts is telling us that not so long. Every time they decrease, the highest level of shorts reach is getting lower. So this paradox should end a new cycle should start in as of next week . I'm long in bitcoin -0.31% ... We will see a bullish market in august and september...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by turananil
1
BTC futures start and end dates: Manipulation?I have set the length of each rectangle to coincide with the length of each CME Bitcoin futures date. The height of the other rectangles is irrelevant as we don't have end date prices for those futures contracts. The blue rectangle is the only one where we have both open and close information. It seems to me that manipulation is obvious but I can't say that for sure. The open date for the first contract (starts December '17 ends June '18) opens one day before the all time high . The close date for the contract is one day after the local low , the lowest low Bitcoin has seen since $20K. Was this timed perfectly? Looks like it to me. Assuming this is right and the market is being manipulated, we could be seeing a real uptrend in the coming months that would match the start dates for the other future contracts. I wouldn't trade on this information, I'm still holding my coins as I'm holding medium-long term bullish. Open interest in CME futures is rising and price is rising which suggests a bullish move. Needs more volume to confirm the bullish sentiment though. Source: www.cmegroup.com
BLong
by reycripto
1
CME & Also CBOE Future Expiry dates are impacting the btc pricesAs we see on the expiry dates of both CME and CBOE futures, Bitcoin price generally drops heavily. This trend has to end at some point and always comes back from the dip level (6K-7K) that is defined when those companies announced they will launch those futures. This is the time the financial wolves joined the game and became market makers. This dip is the exact bitcoin price when it was announced. So I'm pretty sure we will not go below. I don't know how many cycles it will take to boost and market makers play the bull, we will see but at some point this will happen. Also the cycles of shorts is telling us that not so long. Every time they decrease, the highest level of shorts reach is getting lower. So this paradox should end a new cycle should start in upcoming months. I'm long in bitcoin... We will see a bullish market in august and september...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by turananil
The CBOE/CME Settlement cycle really dump & pump BTC price!You can check my previous analysis about his hellish CBOE/CME cycle that suppress/pump BTC price ( and the whole crypto market ) into dump & pump cycle. If my guess is correct, this dump will stop around 6-7 June 2018 at around 7000-7200 price. and it will continue to pump again. But since the price will stuck at trend line ... so the highest price for next BTC pump cycle will be around 8500 or 8200. But I think 9000 is the possible price target for next pump.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Real_inwCoin
Just an update for CBOE-BTC up and down cycle, so it's began.Since BTC test 10k and couldn't pass, the price start to crumble. Now it form very big Head & Shoulders pattern in 4H Timeframe, the neckline is around 9050 and I think it won't hold. Expect slow price drop to 8800 then struggling to go up to 9000. Then drop to 8500 and up to 8700.. Then 8000-8500. From my idea, the price will continue to drop to the bottom ( 7000 or 8000 ) around first week of June 2018. And start to rally up again.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Real_inwCoin
3
Bitcoin Quarterly Analysis 2013 - 2018In Q3 of 2013, BTC/USD printed a low of $1.00. 5 years later, the low for Q3 2017, was $1826.10. It is now 2018 and the LOWEST Bitcoin has printed is $6k. Even after this -49.68% loss, the $6k all time low for 2018 is +715.99% change from the 2017 year low. Over the 22 Quarters between 2013 Q1 and today (2018 Q2): Bitcoin has performed a. 12 of the 22 with an average positive change of +102.62% b. 10 of 22 with an average negative change of -19.62% Total average change for Bitcoin/USD in this period is A POSITIVE GAIN of 47.10% PER QUARTER. Despite material fact of BTC/U performance and trend over the past years, the effort to project a BTC/U Bear Market narrative shamelessly continues, claiming $4k as the true near term support. The reality is, $4k is a price level that BTC/U has not seen since, Q3 of 2017. Yes, it’s possible to see that price again but positing 4k as a bear market price is nothing short of embarrassing, considering this 2017 level of "support" represents a positive change of 444% from Q1, 273.83% from Q2, and 119.03% from Q3, all within the same fiscal year. With the historical data referenced above and readily known by anyone in the market prior to Q4 2017, the "4k Bear Market" narrative echoes nothing more than the bitter sentiment of a latecomer. Even the CME's, BRR and BRTI, can track an overall change of greater than a +1000% in BTC/U from it's official launch in Q3 2016 to the current day price. Since the first listing of BTC/U on an exchange priced at $0.003 on March 10 2010, to the current price at $8516.80, BTC/U has seen a 283,893,233.33% gain. Since it priced at $1.00 as the low for Q3 of 2013, to today, BTC/U has seen a 851,580% gain. Those that continue to insist that BTC/U is in a bear market, will have better luck finding losses in their credibility. Credit Suisse reported 1.1 Million new millionaires were created in the U.S. in 2017, for a total of 15,356,000 millionaires in the U.S. alone. Total current supply of Bitcoin is 17,044,825 with a max cap of 21,000,000. So to those intent on driving down prices; tread lightly, there are masses ready and waiting to take your seat at this table. “…the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.” Appreciate the risk.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by iSovereign
6
E-Mini S&P500 Future JUN18 (CME)Trading Signal Short Position (EP) : 2635.25 Stop Loss (SL) : 2643.5 Take Profit (TP) : 2604.25 Description ES1! formed Double Repo Sell at 30m time frame. Trade setup with sell limit at 0.382 level of FR (2635.25) and place stop loss at 0.618 level of FR (2643.5). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement zone (2604.25) Money Management Money in portfolio : $73,000 Risk Management (0.5%) : $365 Position Sizing $0.25 = +-$12.50 (Mini) Commission fee = -$2.05/contract (Mini) EP to SL = $8.25 = -$412.50/contract (Mini) Contract size to open = 1 mini contract EP to TP = $31.00 = +$1,550 (Mini) Expected Result Commission Fee = -$4.1 Loss = -$412.50 Gain = +$1,550 Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.72
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SuppasitWechprasit
Bitcoin needs to complete this last wave down to find bottom!!!BTCUSD is having a time right now, but I've been calling for a bottom sub $6k end of April / early May for months. I've been counting these waves down, and if this last 5 work out as planned that bottom should come in right on time. Also, LOOK OUT FOR APRIL DATES: - US TAX DAY ( APRIL 17th this year ) - BTC CME FUTURES EXPIRATION MARCH 29TH - March 29th expiration had a dip starting on the 25th with a massive push down on the 29th. I would not be surprised if we end in a truncation or a long flat or both. This is me trying to plot out what I'm seeing. Let me know what you think!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by foulmouthmuggle
Bitcoin - Analysed From Future's Traders ViewIn the above graph, Green Channels show large volume for CME future contracts where Red Channels indicate small volume, the darker the colour, the more intense the volume. As you can see, the early Green Channels signal large volatility hence large price rises where low volume future contracts resulted in significant drops, now later along in March, Contract volumes steadily rose, in which its seems this increase in Fututes volume has taken the volatility out of the market. MACD appears to be tightly entangled within the closing wedge, either this will limit future corrections or force an breakout with the amplitude of the wedge ranges from $6000 - $9000, Latest futures trading data shows net-long traders are converting to shorts although currently longs have just over 2-1 lead, there is rumors longs are coming back into favor yet the trends show differently, as two-three weeks of reversal hint at perpetual shorts. Taking a view of traders and their attitudes, seems to exhibit pressure to force BTC prices low although changes in sentiment suggest a reversal of the BTC downtrend despite the fact traders remain net-long, this could change with current price action as low BTC price mean net-longs are lucrative. We have declining open interest indicating the market is liquidating and could lead to current downward trend coming to an end. This is a contradiction as the overall Futures volume shows we can expect the existing trend to continue rather than reverse. Here is CBOE views on it: “The daily volume has mostly been concentrated in the near-month future and the open interest doesn’t change much from day to day,” said Gary Compton, a spokesperson for the CBOE, to Modern Consensus. “This could indicate that short term or day traders are concentrating on this contract. The farthest-dated contracts haven’t been trading too much" "This shows that asset managers and institutional investors—pension funds, insurance companies, and the like—have switched from being completely short bitcoin to long the Cryptocurrency, at least when ti comes to the futures contract on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)" According to the COT report, “Asset manager/institutional” traders required to report to the regulator are now long a total of 220 contracts, worth a little above $1.7 million as of Monday. There are no new short contracts. Just two weeks before, they were short 110 contracts but long no contracts. They are currently long 2,323 BTC contracts and short 953 contracts (for a net of 1,370 contracts). Two weeks ago, they were 2,531 contracts while short 815 (for a net of 1,716). Using commodities index as a base for open interest volume, states Falling Price + Falling Contract Volume + Falling Open Interest represents a market that is Strengthening for an uptrend where the price decline is likely being caused by disgruntled net-long traders liquidating their positions on current price action. The market in this scenario is viewed as in an strong position because the downtrend will end once all the sellers have sold their positions. Another option is Falling Price + Rising Open Interest + Falling Contract Volume is indicative of a weak market downtrend. During the course of the current trend, high and rising volume in Jan, Feb suggests trading activity supported the downward trend and that the trend continuation happened due to increased investors supporting overall downward price movement.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CerealTrader