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Crude-oil

Crude Oil Repeating the Pattern from 1985 to 2008I posted this pattern originally back in 2019 which showed the relationship between sharp drops in crude oil prices and the resulting support levels created in the stock market, as measured by the $SPX500 S&P500 Index. Crude oil has basically gone sideways over the last 40 years when adjusted for inflation and when you factor in efficiency in that we get 22 mpg on average now in our vehicles vs closer to 10 mpg back in the early1980's. Essentially, the price of oil has only kept up with inflation. When there is a spike in crude oil, it sets the seeds of its own destruction. We figure out how to use less and save more and find more oil. In this latest spike, there is a strong move again to save in the form of solar panels, battery storage and natural gas. Time will tell how the current pattern pans out. The historical pattern suggests downside risk of 30%-40% for crude oil and upside of 200% which is a decent 10 year risk/reward ratio. If crude oil falls 20% from current levels near $84/barrel on 9/22/22, the risk/rewards gets extremely attractive as it drops to down 40%. The upside potential becomes 400% and the downside risk is 10% or less at that point. Stay tuned! Tim West Key Hidden Levels Chat Room - Time@Mode Method specialist
FX_IDC:USDWTI
by timwest
2
CADJPY – holding for 109.50 While NOK (Norwegian krone) has the strongest statistical relationship with Brent and WTI crude, we can see a strengthening correlation between crude and the CAD. We see the 1-month correlation between crude and CADJPY at 0.68, so it's meaningful. We also see (on the daily) price breaking out of the top of its recent range of 108.50. While many will be concerned with being short JPY, given BoJ intervention risk, for now, traders remain happy to fade JPY strength as carry is still attractive (given the low volatility). Also, with crude on the rise the market sees this benefiting Canada’s terms of trade, while it negatively impacts Japan’s economics given, they are a big importer of energy. The bulls happy to hold for 109.50, stops on a daily close below the 5-Day EMA.
Long
by Pepperstone
SpotCrude – higher levels starting to impact risk Further highs in crude have been seen in this momentum move. This time courtesy of some punchy OPEC forecasts for a 3.3m barrel p/d deficit in Q4. The IEA (International Energy Agency) are due to provide their update in the session ahead, and one can also expect a change in the forecast, given they previously pencilled in a 230k bpd deficit. $90 is the obvious round-number target for longs, ahead of the Oct 2022 highs of $93.52. Clients are biased to fade the move here though (61% of open positions are now held short), but while crude is certainly overbought one considers the trigger for a pronounced mean reverting move. Higher levels from here are likely going to increase market anxiety, where we see inflation expectations rising once again.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by Pepperstone
1
Crude Oil potential shortCrude oil is looking double sided, potential drop or bounce of support. Next week will be interested how it will pan out. Will support hold up? Will oil dump? The one day uptrend has been broken since the last high has been broken through and so far a little down trend has formed and it looks like Friday could have been a pull back to continue the 5th wave of this down trend. Watch on Monday, sell if oil breaks through support. And buy if the potential upside forms, buy. If it begins to break through support, we sell with a stop loss at around 80 for a decent stop loss and around 80.6 for a looser one. The target is minimum of 78. If it starts bouncing off, we buy and set stop loss for around 79.1 (a lot of risk for bullish side) and target is 81 and higher if we continue to move the stop loss up. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE JUST PRACTICE...
TVC:USOIL
by darzzzz
WTI OIL Rejection on the 4H MA50, sell if the 4H MA200 breaks.WTI Oil (USOIL) got emphatically rejected yesterday on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and formed another Lower High on the emerging Channel Down. The price is now approaching the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on an additional sell signal as the 4H MACD just completed a Bearish Cross, the first since the one that started this correction at the top on August 10. As a result, we are waiting for this bearish continuation confirmation, and will sell after a 4H candle closing below the 4H MA200. Our target will by 76.00 (just above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line)). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
1
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/11/23For Friday, the 81.49 - 81.64 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.15 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.   In the more immediate vicinity, 84.14 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.15 indicates 86.15 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures - once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 81.49 long-term support within 1 - 2 weeks.   A daily settlement above 86.15 indicates 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.   Downside Friday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, 78.02 then expected by the end of next week, 70.85 attainable by the end of September.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/10/23For Thursday, the 81.49 - 81.66 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.28 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.   In the more immediate vicinity, 84.18 can contain session activity, above which 86.28 is attainable intraday and able to contain weekly buying pressures, once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 81.49 long-term support within 1 - 2 weeks.   A daily settlement above 86.28 indicates 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.   Downside Thursday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, 77.86 then expected within 3 - 5 days, 70.77 by the end of September.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/8/23For Tuesday, the 81.49 - 81.71 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.54 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.   Upside Tuesday, 84.17 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.17 indicates 86.54 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.   Downside Tuesday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, and quite possibly through the balance of the year, 75.49 then considered 1 - 2 week target, possibly yielding 62.14 by the end of the year.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Cracking the Crack SpreadThe ‘crack spread’ is a term used in the oil industry that refers to the differential between the price of crude oil and the petroleum products extracted from it, such as gasoline and heating oil. The name comes from the process of 'cracking' crude oil in a refinery to produce these valuable products. The spread serves as a measure of refining margin, or profitability, for oil refineries. When the prices of petroleum products are high relative to the price of crude oil, the crack spread widens, and refining margins increase, making it profitable for refineries. Conversely, when the price of crude oil is high relative to the products, the crack spread narrows, and refining can become less profitable or even unprofitable. The crack spread is typically expressed in terms of the ratio between the input (crude oil) and the outputs (refined products). For example, a 3:2:1 crack spread assumes that three barrels of crude oil can produce two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of heating oil. In the futures market, the crack spread can be traded by buying crude oil futures and selling futures in its products, thus locking in the margin between input and output prices. This can serve as a form of hedging against price risk for those involved in the oil industry. This week, we will delve into various factors influencing the crack spread and evaluate their potential impact on the current spread; Geopolitical Concerns SPR Refill One of the key points mentioned when we last covered oil was the potential refills of the SPR which are still pending as an attempt to purchase up to 6 million barrels was abandoned at the last minute. As the drawdown in the SPR continues, it seems inevitable that the Biden administration will have to replenish the reserve, likely pushing oil prices higher due to increased demand. Russia Ukraine escalation The simmering tensions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict leave us wondering if the price of crude oil might escalate further. The ongoing conflict focuses on a key port in the Black Sea. Consequently, this could potentially impact up to 20% of oil exports from Russia. Although most major nations no longer rely on Russia for oil supply, some countries are still buying from Russia. This leads to the concern that such countries might have to turn to the open market to make up for their supply shortage one day. Seasonality Crack falls in the 2nd half of the year Seasonal trends indicate a pattern where the 3:2:1 crack spread declines in the second half of the year. This trend has persisted for 6 out of the past 10 years, with the average decline of 29%. Three of the remaining four years closed flat, with one year ending approximately 20% higher. Economic Growth Current economic growth weak but some soft landing expected The year-on-year GDPs for major economies are trailing their long-term averages, indicating still fragile economic growth as industries and consumers grapple with sticky inflation and high rates. Weak economic growth generally dampens the crack spread, as industries and consumers cut back on spending, reducing the demand for refined products. Currency Interplay Between Dollar, Crude, and Crack Spread The Inverse Dollar and Crude Oil has as long-standing positive correlation up until the Russian-Ukraine Crisis when both Crude Oil and the dollar move sharply higher. As this relationship now begins to normalize again, any weakness in the dollar could provide the fuel for Crude & the Crack Spread to rally again. The crack spread is also highly correlated with Crude Oil outright prices, hence any view on crude oil can also be expressed using the Crack Spread. The crack spread hit an all-time high in June 2022 amidst the Russia-Ukraine tensions. Currently, the spread trades at a higher range relative to the past two decades and seems to face some resistance at the previous all-time high in 2013. On a shorter timeframe, the crack spread appears to be breaking out of a symmetrical triangle to the upside, typically a signal of bullish continuation. With prices slightly dipping, this could present an enticing opportunity. On balance the impending risk of the geopolitical event breaking out as well as the structurally weakening dollar seems to outweigh the seasonality and economic weakness effect. To express our view on the 3:2:1 crack spread, we can set up a long position on the crack spread. This can be set up by buying 2 RBOB Gasoline Futures & 1 NY Harbor ULSD Futures and selling 3 Crude Oil Futures at the current level of 114.5, stop loss at 97 and take profit at 140. The calculation of the 3:2:1 crack spread should also be noted as: (2 * RBOB Gasoline Futures + 1 * NY Harbor ULSD Futures ) * 42 – (3 * Crude Oil Futures). The factor 42 is multiplied to the RBOB Gasoline Futures and NY Harbor ULSD Futures as the two are quoted in USD per gallon, this converts the price quotation in Barrel terms, which is the same as Crude Oil Futures. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.eia.gov www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by inspirante
2
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/7/23For Monday, the 81.49 - 81.73 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.67 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year. Upside Monday, 84.17 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.17 indicates 86.67 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis. Downside Monday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, and quite possibly through the balance of the year, 75.49 then considered 1 - 2 week target, possibly yielding 62.14 by the end of the year.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/4/23For Friday, the 80.50 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.77 is likely by the end of next week, 62.14 attainable over the next 3-5 months. On the other hand, a weekly settlement today at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61 – page 2) would set off a meaningful buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3-5 weeks, 103.33 within 3-5 months (p 2). Downside Friday, 78.97 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 78.97 allows 76.77 intraday, able to contain selling into next week and the point to settle below for then indicating 70.40 over the next 2-3 weeks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/3/23For Thursday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.57 is likely within 1 - 2 weeks, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months. On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.44 within the week, while a weekly settlement tomorrow at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 within 3 - 5 months. Downside Thursday, 78.56 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 78.56 indicates 76.57 - 77.37 intraday, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for then indicating 70.40 over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/2/23For Wednesday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.48 is likely within 1 - 2 weeks, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.   On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.44 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 within 3 - 5 months.   Downside Wednesday, closing below 80.53 indicates a good weekly high, 76.48 - 76.97 then expected by the end of next week, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/1/23For Tuesday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 73.40 is likely by the end of August, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.   On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.48 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 over the following 3 - 5 months.   Downside Tuesday, 78.12 can contain session weakness, while closing below 78.12 indicates a good high through next week, 76.12 - 76.13 then expected over that time horizon, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/31/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 81.61 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity. Upside, 81.61 can contain buying into later year, once tested 62.14 attainable over the following 3 - 5 months, where the market can bottom out on a seasonal basis. On the other hand, a weekly settlement above 81.61 indicates a good low for the year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 considered a 3 - 5 month target able to contain buying well into next year. - For Monday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area remains can contain buying through summer activity, below which 73.40 is likely by the end of August, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months. On the other hand, closing today above 81.61 allows 84.52 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 over the following 3 - 5 months. Downside Monday, 78.12 can contain session weakness, while closing below 78.12 indicates a good high through next week, 74.83 - 75.41 then expected within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/28/23For Friday, the 78.04 level can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which 80.65 - 81.73 long-term resistance remains a 3 - 5 day target able to contain buying through summer activity. A weekly settlement today at or above 82.55 (1% above 81.73) would set off a significant buy signal into later year, 103.70 then expected over the next 3 - 5 months. Downside Friday, closing below 78.04 indicates a good high through next week, 76.57 then expected within several days, 73.38 within 2 - 3 weeks, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/27/23For Thursday, the 77.96 level can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which 80.65 - 81.73 long-term resistance remains a 3 - 5 day target able to contain buying through summer activity. A weekly settlement above 81.73 would set off a significant buy signal into later year, 103.70 then expected over the following 3 - 5 months. Downside Thursday, closing below 77.96 indicates a good weekly high, 76.23 then expected within several days, 73.35 within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis