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Cycles

Daily crypto hate. The basics: nothing is free.Back with an educational post to spread the hate! Grrr how I hate crypto I am so angry that I got into trading and soon do not have to work anymore. I have to bring balance back to the force. Crypto sentiment has to get back to reasonable levels. All this ridiculous fanatical love for crypto has to end, and it will end. Everyone, but in particular anyone that wants to get into finance, should know the riskier (in apparence) an investment is, the greater their returns will be. And if an investment main purpose is wealth preservation 100% bullet proof, then the returns will be small. Applies to Bitcoin, back in the early days, talk about it to random beer belly dude in the road he'll laugh at your face and call it a nerd/geek thing. Remember late 2017 the stories about beer belly bar owners that invested in crypto and were accepting it as payment? We got to the other extreme where every beer belly random dude that didn't even go to school thinks he knows how things work and is persuaded crypto is the "next big thing". Every one is SOOO persuaded it is the future and will 100% be used. I was working for a bank recently, and in our internal newsletter we had messages saying that "Ok so obvioulsy crypto will be the new currency, there is no doubt about that, but which one? We think it will be issued by governemnts bla bla bla". EVERY ONE thinks he is a visionary (10 years after the thing is created...). EVERY ONE thinks crypto is this "huge revolution". Well guess what? It is not. It will fall, and all these people are going to start thinking very very negatively of it. I will be the FIRST ONE to tell you when we get to excessive negativity (some worthless crypto's can never reach a point where the negativity is excessive: it would have to be infinite as their value is truly 0). NOTHING IS FREE. If something is free, then it will get noticed and the rentability will go down suddenly. The more risk there is, the higher the payout. The safer it is, the lower the returns. Take that home. Every one thinks crypto is a FAD and a joke and it is almost certain you will lose your money = incredible reward. Every one thinks crypto is awesome and will change the world and you will become rich = garbage reward. NEGATIVE reward even (you lose money). Applied to trading Forex and Commodities: if you join a trend early, you will get big returns, BUT you will often be wrong, high risk high reward. If you join a confirmed trend late, your risk is much lower, but your profit too. So pick your favorite (or both) and/or decide where you prefer it, the "optimal" point where risk is low enough and returns big enough for you. This is why we can see clearly traders have a use, other than bringing liquidity to the market, it is pushing tradable instrument into reasonable levels, either by going long when they are too low, or selling when too high. See? We are not totally useless :) And this is also yet another reason why Bitcoin priced a few hundred dollars makes the most sense: it spent years at that price, when people were being more reasonable about it. It was not this "mad scientist" thing anymore. You could talk about it without looking like a nutcase living in mum basement with an aluminium hat. 500$ my highest probability target long term. 5$ Litecoin. I almost forgot to bring my dose of hate that makes people cry: What do you think will happen about all the crypto's (not even talking about 90%+ ICOs that are outright scams) that were born during the big bubble of 2017? Where is their bottom? They did not exist during the "reasonable" times, so their price at that time was 0 and they have no innovator phase. I will let you figure out what that means :) www.ou.edu
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
8
DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average- MARKET CYCLES Lesson OneIntroduction to Market Cycles Lesson One Markets are more predictable than you and I have been led to believe. We have been told that historical data cannot be used to predict what will happen. But is that statement actually true? Answer -- YES and NO. It is not a lie. Even with the best techniques of technical analysis and analyzing the repetitive and predictable cycles which occur, we can make a fairly accurate prediction of future movements, but it is not 100% reliable. We must always leave some room for the unexpected to occur at any moment. That is true! But, can we learn to analyze market cycles in such a way that we can get a fairly accurate prediction of a rough prediction of future movements? My answer is YES! Not with 100% accuracy though. But honestly, even a 60% accurate prediction would be good. But I think we can do much better than 60 percent. I expect if we work at this method we can approach 80-90% accuracy But How? I am going to take you on a journey of discovering market cycles which occur in every chart on every time frame. These cycles have been staring at you in the face, but you likely have not noticed them. They are hidden in plain sight. Perhaps some of you already see these cycles, and some of them are more obvious than others. Maybe you already know all you need about market cycles on every level, in which case, why read more? My prediction is that not all of you will be able to understand or believe what I will tell you, maybe you will say I am crazy! If I am crazy, then let me be crazy, because this is working for me, better than other methods have. But if this is not helpful for you, then of course, I wish you well and hope you find something that is helpful. This method of analyzing charts does take a lot of work, mental effort and concentration. There is nothing easy about it. If you are looking for a quick and easy way to trade successfully then you should try looking somewhere else. It will take hard work and time and motivation to perfect this strategy. All this to say, if you don’t like what I am writing for any reason, you do not have to read this. You are completely free by me to stop reading now. First – we are taking about Market cycles – what is a market cycle ? People may mean different things but I am talking about recurring cyclical patterns in any chart. Sometimes we draw cycle diagrams in a circle – which is perfectly fine, but if we want to stretch out the cycle and measure a recurring cycle over time, then we need to use the example of a SINE WAVE. Sine waves are everywhere in nature. We have sine waves in SOUND WAVES, alternating current electricity, signal data, electromagnetic waves including radio, magnetic waves, light waves, xrays, gamma rays, etc. We can also use the sine wave to describe natural changes in the world – if we were to measure the quantity of light in the 24 hour cycle where we live, it would look like a sine wave. If we were to measure the cycle of inspiration and expiration, it would be a sine wave. If we were to measure temperature fluctuations in a temperate zone around the year, it would roughly form a sine wave. What about waking and sleep cycles, etc? There are many other examples. But in terms of the market, our sine wave describes two important phases – GROWTH and REST. GROWTH and REST, GROWTH and REST. Depending on the overall position of multiple cycles Rest can be a major correction, or just a flat zone, or even simply slower growth. But one thing is very important to understand – every chart and every market has MANY MANY MANY different cycles or sine waves of many different time durations, and amplitudes which are all occurring at the same time. If it were just one sine wave on a flat pattern, it would be obvious to everyone and there would be no need for me to point this out. (Continued in update section)
DJ:DJIEducation
by cedarfox
How to spot bear market. Live example.Pretty simple. 1- When we lose the important moving average's, it's an indication a bear market is possible, but by itself does not confirm the start of a bear market at all. 2- When the MA50 starts going downwards... you can start betting we're in bear market. 3- When we lost the MA100 and it starts pointing down, bear market is confirmed, but by then we already dropped alot thought. 4- Usually the faster the climb up is, the longer the bear market lasts. The more time we are in bull market, the more violent and quick the drop. Compare 2014 2017 perfect example. 5- Everything comes in wave of 3. 1rst time people don't notice, 2nd time don't really believe, 3rd time everyone with simple minds are thinking "last 2 times they said it wasn't going up/down, last 2 times it did this it keeps repeating itself, clearly I can buy/sell/join that sect/vote for that NAZI that knows how to manipulate minds. Etc. Always. *- Several factors and indicators have to point out to the same thing. It still needs an educated human eye (or hella good AI?!). Why anyone can't just use this blindy? Take this for example: But... I mean... to me it's obvious... we're not about to start a bear market when we just got out of one & people sold hard and there hasn't been any buying yet...Makes no sense.. But yeah every one doesn't see this I guess. But anyway, this is obviously not for finding signals, just getting an idea of the general trend and putting the odds in your favor. And you can use the MA's as support/resistance to long or short. when several resistances or support are at the same area it's bonus triple kill! The moving averages, especially higher numbers) are mostly viewed I believe by these wonderful people, the investors "in it for the long term", these wonderful people give us money everytime we hit one of their support or resistance. www.youtube.com This drawing (+ my evil plan ofc) gave me the idea to post this:
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
8
A Wyckoff Analysis of january 2018 Bitcoin "bubble"In Wyckoff Analysis, four main phases occur during the trading cycle: accumulation, markup, distribution and markdown. Accumulation phase is when smart money enters on a long position, when general public is not interested. Markup phase is when parabolic movements start, driving media and public attentions, when entusiasm and FOMO make their victims. Distribution phase is when smart money start exiting lasting only newbies' money. During distribution, bulls fail to stablish new highs, a big correction may be seen, driving fear to the market, this correction is followed by a lower high. Usually where traders exit positions and public think everything is back to normal, this is called bull trap. The Markdown phase is when ansiety, fear and pain make general public close positions with huge losses.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn288635
7
Core rules to trade with Sinewave & MomentumHope this educational content will help you make a better use of the indicators. Remember that these rules are just ground rules. Positions sizes and stops positionning will depend on your own risk profile. This is up to you to find your comfort zone on these parameters. Indicators used in this video are : PRO Sinewave & PRO Momentum Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators Kindly, Phil
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by PRO_Indicators
25
Late Cycle... or New Cycle? When will it end!Its worth considering what market cycles can tell us about when this run will end. I won't (can't) explain the logic behind cycles, but they appear in every aspect of nature, which includes human behaviour. Seasonality is a well known example. Using the Dow Jones as a barometer, its clear that there were 7 years between the 2002 and 2009 lows. We can't predict exact business cycle lengths, but it would seem from recent history that the next could have ended somewhere between 20015 to 2016. Because this did not appear to happen, investors now worry that a correction is overdue. But what if the cycle low did happen? The market did not in fact move for nearly two years - from January 2015 to the elections in 2016. If true then the next mid-cycle, marking a peak, is towards the end of 2018. Interestingly this coincides with US mid-term elections, and in Europe the exit of the UK from the EU. 2018 could also mark the turning point for 'Quantitative Tightening' and monetary policy. Momentum certainly is driving prices higher for now; reflecting easy financial conditions, low unemployment, and reasonable growth. Behaviourally, a bull market end when 'bears' throw in the towel, and euphoria reigns. For any market, it creates a simple demand/supply imbalance. This cannot be said of the current state, and so we may look to 2018 for the final phase.
DJ:DJIEducation
by MVedra
1
GOLD / D1-W1-M1 : MultiTimeFrame Analysis with Elliott+SinewaveTook me quite some time to build this up but the result shows a very clean sceanrio here ! Everything tends to correspond between each different timeframe and so the forecast is even more likely to occur. It shows that on the biggest timeframe, gold has made it's 5 wave impulse and is now retracing in 2 impulses . The first have been completed and we clearly see it confirmed by multiple timeframe sinewave signals. We're now working on the corrective wave of this rectacement ( the A to B wave ) . Which normally plots as ZigZag and tends to be the case here. Looks like we've made the first impulse of our sub ZigZag... working on the corrective wave (that appears to be a barrier triangle on daily chart). The next move should be a 3 wave bullish impulse reaching out to 100-127% extension of the previous wave . Completing this will give us our B point of major count that we will the sell for the second corrective wave of the monthly corrective count. It can seem messy... but hold on, zoom in and take the time to read ! You'll have much clearer sight of what would be about to come ;) Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'm pretty new to TradingView so I'ld appreciate any like/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;) You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by PRO_Indicators
4
ETHEREUM / D1 : Sinewave & Elliot suggests TP but still bullishCombined Elliott wave analysis and cycle analysis through PRO Sinewave (beta) both tend to confirm a TP area nearby the current prices which would mean the end of subwave 3 of our supposed last impulse (V) that is our extended wave. Which means that we may still have a final 5th wave to complete on the subcount in order to finish this cycle. Anyhow bulls must get out at that point and wait for retracement to eventually jump in again for the final wave 5 call. Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'm pretty new to TradingView so I'ld appreciate any like/comment/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;)
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by PRO_Indicators
8
Top of the WaveWell it is finally here.. We have reached the date of the above green time cycle. This cycle marks the date of significant highs, normanly followed by a sharp break down. This cycle has remained acurate for last 3 years (we are entering 4 year) and it remain spot on. The Green time cycle shows the dates when oil stops a bull run. Even in a bear market, there will be bull run leading into this date... On this date we see the high. Even thought I only use this to predict the Week of the event (break to bearish).. It has been acurate to the DAY the last three years. As it predicted the break happened on Friday. October 7th. That is six complete cycles going back over three years. Simply put, we have reached the top of the wave until Apex of Red cycle, Jan 20, 2017. Oil is going down. The Red sine wave shows at what point in the cycle oil will be at its low. Think of it as the inverse of the Green time cycle with a different wave timing. The low for oil will be on the Apex date of the Red sine wave. The last apex occurred (and was predicted) on Aug 4. This wave timing longer than the Green time cycle, so you can see it's apex can occur from days to months after the High of the Green time cycle. The difference in time between the two dictates the speed of the fall. This pattern is consistent. Sure... I only make a handful of trades a year, and i normally swing them for about 3months, so why is this important to short term traders.. Because if you know the direction for the next few weeks or months, and you know any spike up before the Red sine wave date will be reversed to at least the prior low since the Green time cycle date. All of last years gains where based on these trades.. I will be updating our other published ideas to consolidate them here. All are subsets of this cycle chart. If you have been following you know we are on a longterm big short from 47.10 You also know we made the trip from 40'ish to above 47 twice and our longterm shorts are still underwater. You also know that we also swung short-term shorts for +21% profits with a 1week trade. Neither of these cycles predict price, just course and direction. Our target remains 38 WTI by Jan. 20, 2017. No do overs, not yea buts.. We feel oil will bottom on this day for cycle, and although it will take a few days to confirm a top, and could test 50 this week, we feel this marks the end of this last bull run of the year.
TVC:USOILEducation
by BigEz
24