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EUR/USD forecastLet’s talk a bit about USD. December job report has been strong with the US economy adding the most jobs since February. However, an increase in average hourly earnings won’t be enough to keep the dollar strong this year. Yes, over the short-term, we will see a rally in USD, but over a long-term dollar will dive. We expect 2 rate hikes this year. In recent speech Powell said all need to be prepared for flexible policy. This message brought worries into the markets. I don’t think investors trust much Powell and Fed. And should they? Greatest periods of economic growth were till Fed was established. What happened after? – Well, 10 recessions, few bubbles, Great Depression… Thomas Edison and Henry Ford warned us about this useless and dangerous system. I am not a Fed hater and I don’t think Fed as institution is a problem. Most important is how it’s managed, its policy and how transparent it is. Fed is trying to do all to keep you (and your money) away from gold and other markets. All they want is to sell their debt notes. Yes, Fed is a huge debt machine. The result will be terrible. I believe the debt bubble will be reason of the next financial crisis. I know many people trade crypto. But I don’t think it has a future. Central banks could make electronic central bank money many years ago. But they didn’t, because they don’t need it. There is no place for crypto in the central banks system. Sooner or later blockchain will be killed, as it happened with Esperanto. To be honest crypto is the 21 century version of tulipomania – don’t spend your money and time on it. Trade and invest into real assets ans it’s derivatives. A few weeks before the finicial crisis Bernanke kept repeating how strong is US economy and no drop of real estate prices will happen, having clear understanding world economy was in danger. What did they do to prevent it? – Nothing. Were they so stupid to fail? – No, they just didn’t care. $ 6 trillions were given out to support banks. Isn’t that funny? – Banks created 2008 crisis playing Mortgage CDO. Always, taxpayers pay for the crisis, not banks or Fed. Think about it, maybe Henry Ford was right and we have to change the system? But let’s come back to making money and see EUR/USD chart. Based on Fibo levels, I expect 1.1425 should be tested So, watch this range and go short if it gets rejected with same sl above daily resistance. Wave 3 should send this pair to 1.11650 and final wave to our target 1.11200. This range should be reversal point and big buying opportunity for long term traders.
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
FOMC Setup on EUR/USDThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to unveil another rate hike this Wednesday, December 19th 2018. Probability of a rate hike is quite high, as a neutral or easing federal funds rate would indicate "a need for stimulus" in the U.S. economy (God forbid the FED indicates weakness in the economy while the stock market is sitting just above critical support). A rate hike is an indication of tightening monetary policy, which fundamentally strengthens the dollar against other currencies. This will produce a down move on the EUR/USD (want to sell EUR for USD). If rates remain neutral (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken considerably (up move on EUR/USD). If rates are lowered (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken quite rapidly (up move on EUR/USD).
Short
by Derivati_Capital
1
Weekly Breakdown of EURUSD (Weekly to 15min) So here is what I see playing out for the upcoming week with EURUSD, it is my bias and style of trading from the Weekly down to the 15 min chart! If you enjoy this style of trading and want to learn more than please reach out to me and I would love to help, the best places to reach me are below... Contact me: -Instagram: @krystianstreit -Facebook Course/Community: Alpas FX - Forex and Crypto Currency Trading Have a great trading week my friends!
by EsotericTrader
EURUSD Short Idea ** Sorry for the noise in the beginning it gets better haha ** Here is my Top-Down analysis of EURUSD, and my thoughts on where we could be moving for the rest of the week and even next week. This will break down my thoughts from the M > W > D > 4h > 1h to see more in depth of long term moves and entries for the sell. I hope you guys enjoyed the video and got some knowledge from it. ** Resources ** -Instagram: @krystianstreit - Youtube: Krystian Streit - Facebook: Krystian R Streit If you have any questions, needs, or just want to say hi... HMU!
by EsotericTrader
EURCAD - inside bar/fake-out from key supportAn inside bar/fake-out setup formed in the EURCAD minor pair last week. These types of setups can be very powerful false break signals where large numbers of retail traders were tricked into going one direction and price immediately whips in the other direction, trapping these traders. That can provide strong movement in the other direction as these traders are forced to liquidate losing positions. This setup has already ran up about 100 pips since my entry point and I will be looking to move my mental stop up to break even going into next week, essentially locking in a free trade and attempting to bag my original 3-to-1 RR.
Long
by krugman87
1
EURUSD - Approaching critical resistance and potential H&SI mentioned in a EURUSD video analysis 2 weeks ago that we might see price drop a bit further and then reverse back up to potentially form a head and shoulder pattern. That looks to be exactly what the EUR is doing right now and is now only a short distance from a key resistance level where we will be intently watching for trade setups. I will be watching for price reversal signals at this key resistance zone to get short with the overall trend. Due to the relative bearishness over the past month or two my bias is still solidly bearish and any trades I take will be short positions. The only way I may change my bias on this is if price were to break through this key resistance and show continued bullishness. Although that hasn't happened yet and I will be watching as price reaches this resistance zone for high quality bearish price action candles. Previous EURUSD analysis will be linked below
Short
by krugman87
2
ECB PreviewOnce again the ECB is challenged with managing market expectations, while at the same time assuaging concerns within the governing council that the prospective tightening profile (if we can call it that) is starting to lag the growth seen (on average) in the region. Emphasis is being placed on the possible wording on the easing bias, which naturally is hard to include with economic traction developing despite some modest fade in the growth metrics. Sluggish inflation will be the counter-balance to this argument/view, and herein lies the direct and indirect reference to exchange rates, which also serve to add headwinds (or tailwinds) to exporters, who are in the spotlight at present given the proposed actions of the Trump administration in the US. Nevertheless, some form of adjustment in the statement would appease the hawkish members, and the ECB are ever hopeful that the market is or has priced in the eventual end to QE, hence the constant reiteration that rates will not rise until well past the end date. Focus on the staff projections will be on the growth figures, with core inflation picking up, and forecasts on the headline rates tempered by currency forecasts which will have been adjusted higher. Economic expansion is more likely to be revised up if anything, given the ongoing robust outlook, and only minor adjustments are anticipated at best if at all. There is a strong chance we get a less volatile reaction from the EUR today, but the market is tightly constrained by limits ahead of 1.2100 on the downside, while 1.2500+ looks a stretch at this point given market positioning.
Short
by RajDhall