SP500 (E-mini Futures) - Decision TimeBigger Picture SP500 Futures Update - Decision Time
- Powell (FED) ruled out a recession in todays FOMC Press Conference (Bullish)
- Powell announced drastically slow down QT beginning next month (Extremely bullish for risk assets)
- The Asian and European stock market indices are still showing strength forming new ATHs week by week.
Eminisp500
S&P 500 – Unstable Ground, Smart Money Seeks Stability🚨 S&P 500 – Unstable Ground, Smart Money Seeks Stability 🚨
“Markets don’t like uncertainty. Money flows where confidence is strong, and right now… that’s NOT here.”
🔥 Key Concerns:
✅ U.S. Policies Creating Instability – A crisis-driven environment shakes investor confidence.
✅ S&P Struggling to Hold Strength – Momentum is weak, smart money is hesitant.
✅ Blue Box = First Resistance Zone – A tough level to break, especially in this macro climate.
💡 The Game Plan:
Short Bias from the Blue Box – Until proven otherwise, this level is resistance.
LTF Breakdowns & CDV Confirmation = High-Probability Shorts – We don’t guess, we react.
No Clean Break Above? The Trend Remains Fragile.
“Markets punish uncertainty. Right now, the S&P is walking on thin ice—be cautious, be tactical.” 🔥📉
I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
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I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..
$spx going to 11k over the next 3 to 4 yearsIm expecting the current bull to continue for another few years, with a deep correction in between now and the expected target of 11 k, by 2028/29...
From there I expect SP:SPX to enter a sideways bear market such as the ones of 68/75 and 2000/2009 in order to form the 4th base of the secular run since 1929 (shown the comments).
Bears always get it wrong, because of their self-delusions about the world and often also themselves!
It's bulls who - due to their prescience and foresight - actually get to foresee tops in the market.
Bears never catch a top, if they do it's either by coincidence, luck or something a four year old could have seen, like the covid top... anyway... we see so much madness in the ideas section, it's even fun!
S&P500 (ES) uptrend may still be intactRecent price action on S&P futures suggests a potential rollover happening now, particularly after today's sell-off. This downturn began after the index peaked at 5,333.5 on April 1, 2024. Despite this, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and forthcoming high-profile earnings reports, such as NVDA's in late May, add layers of uncertainty. Notably, NVDA has recently become a pivotal indicator not only for the AI and broader tech sectors but also for the general economy.
Taking a longer-term perspective, the S&P futures have maintained an uptrend, connecting a support trendline from a previous low of 4,122 on October 27, 2023, to the April 19, 2024, pullback at 4,963. This suggests that the trend remains intact, possibly ready to rebound from the support line and continue its upward trajectory.
In conclusion, while recent market behavior might suggest the beginning of a rollover, the increased market volatility means that stricter interpretation of technical indicators may not be as reliable until the noise subsides. Therefore, a broader perspective might be necessary to accurately assess trend behaviors. But it's important not to continuously adjust this perspective to justify an ongoing uptrend, especially considering the seasonal strategy of 'sell in May and go away,' which could still prove prudent in the coming weeks.
SP500// ES Key zone 26.9 stm.We have the initial Resistance zone which is the intraday Bias changing zone.
Where the market is going to move if ES/ SP500 holding below initial resistance following the FC announcement then the reason to weakness then could still remain in play for move down to initial support.
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Short-term Neutral-Bearish
Intermediate Neutral-Bearish
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Trend Extend SPX short term futures bullThis algo and automatic drawing system can indicate that an oversold short term furtures index price can retrace to trend extend levels.
the projection in the algo and short term futures or money network index risk may accumulate according to trend regularity 33, with automatic drawings suggesting a cross.
a bear pullback could look like something as indicated on the chart, where the market overall USI:TICK SP:SPX $DXY/SPY is still a weekly sell.
Will NVDA Gap Hold for ES?E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5062.25, down 30.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,658.50, down 222.25
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower for the fourth session in a row. Most crucially, the S&P tested our rare major four-star support at 5044-5055, this pocket aligns multiple indicators as well as the gap close on February 21st, ahead of NVDA’s earnings release. Given the relentless move down, failed bounce attempts and this critical area of support, it is imperative the bulls show up today.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5078-5082**, 5094-5097***, 5110*, 5119-5123.25***, 5127-5131.75***, 5147.25-5153.75***, 5162.75-5167.25***, 5182-5185.50**, 5207.75-5213***
Pivot: 5069.50-5075
Support: 5062.25***, 5044-5055****, 5026-5027.25**, 5018**, 4983.50-4994.25****
NQ (June)
Resistance: 17,767-17,796***, 17,850-17,874**, 17,959-17,988***, 18,051-18,072****, 18,131-18,167***, 18,226-18,254***, 18,326-18,343***
Pivot: 17,719
Support: 17,604-17,638***, 17,463-17,493***, 17323-17,372***, 17,106***
Micro Bitcoin (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 61,130, down 1,790
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 63,350-63,700**, 64,660-64,937****, 66,555-67,595***, 68,172-68,590*, 70,410-70,800**, 71,795-71,815**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***
Pivot: 62,535
Support: 61,632-61,680***, 59,700-60,830***, 57,410-58.250***
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Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
/ES: End of Week Double Top Could Result In Secondary SelloffThe S&P 500 E-mini Futures appear to be double topping at around 4,835 as the end of the trading week approaches, this could result in an end of week selloff that continues into next week. The range in which it could sell off to on an intraweek basis is pretty wide. I would generally target the 800 EMA at around $4,678
SNP likely flipping lower...looking for shorts on h1 etc...Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Flipping on the index to the downside, correlating with the strengthening in USD?Let's see...
Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place.
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March E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Weekly Chart - 12/18/23March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures continued the rally that began at the beginning of November, taking out the recent high from the last week in July. MACD recently experienced a bullish cross by crossing above its signal line. That relationship is widening, which indicates a continuing bullish trend. RSI is getting closer to being overbought at 70, though bearish divergence might be in play as the RSI is lower than its peak in August, even though price has taken out the high in August. This could indicate that momentum is weakening, and a reversal might occur. If the bullish trend continues, resistance might be found at the April 2022 high of 4,860. A reverse to the downside could find support at the 61.8% Fib level (4,530) and at the 52-week moving average (~4,400).
Please Note:
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of analysis (12/15/23). Market conditions are subject to change and may not reflect all market activity.
Jingle Bulls: Analyzing the E-mini S&P 500's Year-End RallyIntroduction
The Santa Claus rally, a well-documented phenomenon in the financial markets, particularly in the context of the E-mini S&P 500, presents a captivating study of market behavior during the holiday season. This rally, often characterized by an uptrend in the stock market, offers a confluence of joy and opportunity for traders and investors alike. Our extensive analysis will delve deep into the intricacies of this phenomenon, unraveling its significance in the broader market context.
Current Market Overview
Over the past two decades, the E-mini S&P 500 has often mirrored the festive spirit with its performance during the Santa Claus rally. A close examination of the rally's seasonality since 2006 paints a picture of resilience and optimism, with only a handful of years bucking the trend. This pattern sets a compelling backdrop for our current year's analysis.
Technical Analysis of the Santa Claus Rally
The preliminary signs of the Santa Claus rally begin to surface as autumn wanes. The technical indicators in November, particularly the moving averages, RSI, and MACD, provide a glimpse into the market's preparatory phase for the rally. This early analysis is critical in setting expectations and understanding the underlying market sentiment.
December's arrival marks the acceleration of the rally. The daily timeframe charts during this month are a testament to the burgeoning bullish sentiment, with technical indicators aligning to confirm the trend's strength.
A broader perspective is gained through a weekly timeframe analysis, which smoothens out the daily volatilities and provides clarity on the rally's sustained nature.
The monthly timeframe charts link the current rally to the historical market cycles, offering a comprehensive view of the rally's significance in the long-term market trends.
Historical Context and Comparative Analysis
The Santa Claus rally, particularly in the E-mini S&P 500, is not a recent phenomenon. Historical data dating back over the past two decades reveals a pattern of consistent end-of-year rallies. Analyzing these instances, we find that in 14 out of the last 18 years, the E-mini S&P 500 experienced a significant uptick during this period. Notably, the failed rallies often coincided with broader market stressors or significant global events, offering insights into the rally's sensitivity to external influences. This comparative analysis underscores the rally's reliability but also highlights its exceptions, reminding traders that historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.
Economic Indicators and External Factors
The Santa Claus rally in the E-mini S&P 500 doesn't occur in isolation. It is influenced by a myriad of economic indicators and external factors. Key among these is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which can significantly sway market sentiment. Inflation rates, employment data, and GDP growth figures also play a crucial role in shaping the market's direction during this period. On a global scale, geopolitical tensions and international trade relations can impact investor confidence, thereby affecting the rally. This interplay of factors necessitates a vigilant approach to market analysis, recognizing that the Santa Claus rally is as much about economic fundamentals as it is about seasonal trends.
Market Sentiment and Trader Behavior
The psychology driving the Santa Claus rally is a fascinating aspect of this phenomenon. During this period, a general sense of optimism pervades the market, often leading to increased buying activity. For many traders, this rally represents a culmination of the year's trends and a final push for year-end profits. However, this optimism needs to be tempered with caution. The rally can sometimes lead to overexuberance, resulting in inflated asset prices and increased volatility. Traders should be aware of the potential for a market correction following the rally and should approach trading during this period with a balanced mindset, combining optimism with risk awareness.
Trading Strategies and Risk Management
Navigating the Santa Claus rally requires tailored trading strategies and effective risk management. Traders might consider positioning themselves to capitalize on the expected uptrend, but with safeguards against unexpected market shifts. Utilizing stop-loss orders and setting clear profit targets can help in managing risks. Diversification across asset classes may also provide a buffer against potential volatility within the E-mini S&P 500. Additionally, traders should stay attuned to market indicators and news, as these can provide early signals of changes in the rally's trajectory. Ultimately, a disciplined approach, balancing the eagerness to exploit the rally with prudent risk management, is key to navigating this period successfully.
Conclusion
The Santa Claus rally, particularly in the E-mini S&P 500, offers a microcosmic view of the broader market dynamics at play during the year's end. This phenomenon, while rooted in historical patterns and influenced by a blend of economic indicators and market sentiment, requires a nuanced understanding and a strategic approach. As we close the chapter on another year's rally, traders are reminded of the constant interplay between market optimism and the reality of economic fundamentals. The insights gleaned from this analysis not only shed light on the rally itself but also serve as a guiding framework for navigating future market movements with agility and foresight.
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
E-mini S&P - Weekly Timeframe Analysis Price had a relatively convincing reversal back to the upside.
In my opinion the highest yielding position would be a long from the weekly Bisi annotated on the chart. A short could be identified from the weekly Sibi, but I would be wary that the Sibi could be used as a point of support of there are Discount PD Arrays on lower timeframes within.
A possible target would be the relative equal highs residing near the top of the highest weekly swing.
S&P / ES Setting up for shorts tomorrow and next week.S&P / ES are in an abnormal distribution right now; up 5% in a week even including priced in prior to Fed Interest rate, looks like a convenient short hunting continuation path at this point. Idea is, it should present a short set up pretty soon after the NFP and into next week, levels are stated in the chart, good luck.
Emini S&P500 LONGStill holding e-mini S&P long. Took a second entry at 4326.75 and moved stops below pivot point strong support @ 4315.5 I am looking for upside swing targets: Swing Target 1 =4415, Swing Target 2 =4431.25 and Swing Target 3 =4457.50
Regular session Targets:
TP1: 4357.50
TP2: 4373.50
TP3: 4383.75
TP4: SwT 4430
TP5: SwT 4457