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Emotions

The importance of intelligence to tradingINTELLECTUAL QUOTIENT The one we hear the most nonsense about and for 1 legit piece of info there are 500 TB of crap. People are super insecure about this. Even in investing circles, where individuals are at or above average, still insecure. Academics using Finnish data (because at 19-20 men have to pass an IQ test for the military) found that 25% top IQ (IQ > 110) make up 50% of market participants 25% bot IQ (IQ < 90) make up 9% of market participants So virtually everyone reading this should be average or above, and I don't do simple magical indicators so that probably adds another filter. Academics looked at tech stocks on the Helsinki stock exchange and found that in the sample period 1/1995-11/2002 the annualized returns (dividends etc included) were: - For the 42% with the lowest IQ 9.52%. The 1rst to 4rth stanine. IQ <96. I'll call them INT 1-4. - For the 4% with the highest IQ 14.45%. The 9th stanine. IQ > 126. I'll call them INT 9. A significant difference. Remember the vast majority are passive investors that just follow the market as a whole. Imagine 1/3 of a country invests, they have a separate life they're not all active. Much of the difference in performance - which is monotonously correlated with IQ - comes from lower IQ individuals joining at the wrong time. But even when ignoring the timing, and looking at returns as if they all joined equally over time (by adding weights to the data) scientists found that INT 9 (IQ > 126) returned 14.84% and INT 1-4 (IQ < 96) returned 12.65%. So not only wrong timing but also wrong stock selection. I am guessing they regrouped 1-4 to not humiliate people with intellectual disability (INT 1)? Sources: papers.ssrn.com papers.ssrn.com Proven by science, all the big liars saying it does not matter are big liars trying to be liked. About market timing. There is a clear pattern, it just jumps at you. Page 61 of IQ, Trading Behavior, and Performance you can see for yourself so I'll keep it short: Basically like it or not, people with an IQ over 105 (37% of the population), which already is the majority of market participants, are the ones buying during the bull market, and the average and below all rush in when prices start to go parabolic, making them go even more parabolic, smart people step away, and 1-5s hold the bag and keep buying when the price is clearly in a bear market (poor pattern recognition). To all the people that joined crypto in 2017 and are going "oh no not me": The Finnish data set only looks at men over 20. And the vast majority of those are well over 30. They had more than enough time to earn some money, hear about stocks, and get into investing. The European demographic pyramid is really terrible. And of course older people invest more than broke young people that study or barely started to work. People get into investing in waves. The tech bubble was when plenty of 20 yos (back then) got in. I didn't know I could invest by myself before 2017. All of us 20-30s are just a tiny minority that makes no difference stat-wise compared to the vast number of middle aged workers and retirees. For my defense I entered at the top, during the parabola but I was not a permabull, all the bagholding 1-5s were laughing at me for being bearish... I like it here, how it is now. If Bitcoin goes vertical to over 100K the 25% at the bottom will start to appear again. And start arguing. And making circular logic. And screaming. And sending threats. Oh boy. INT 6 represents 17% of the general pop & in this data 23-24% of market participants, INT 7-9 23% of the general pop is 36-37% of market participants. You know, even today after they lowered the level drastically, only 1/3 of people completes college education (or equivalent for us French), and they're not 1-4s. Seems obvious to me that someone that struggles with a division won't be making money in the markets, do people think this is manual labor? But whatever, as I said, IQ matters because these 4 things matter: 1. Pattern Recognition: The ability to understand the world through analogies. Predicting a crash because many elements are similar to the previous crash is not very different to looking at a bunch of dominos in an IQ test and guessing which one is next in the list. 2. Numbers skills: being able to quickly calculate risk, volatility, as well as understand probabilities. Good way to avoid holding a bag and waking up "Oh what? How am I down 75%? Didn't see that coming". You have to see that coming. You need to know how much you'll make or lose if the price goes up/down by x percent, how likely it is to happen using implied volatility, and much more. 3. Planning & Problem Solving: NEW problems. Not "learn by heart your school lesson" problems. Parrots and college professors do not make great traders. Learning by heart is useless. Every time it's different. "This time it's different". You can mix this with pattern recognition and it becomes obvious where I'm getting at: dumb money ALWAYS goes "this time it's different". You should be able to adapt to new variables, solve new problems, and be able to recognize how NOT different they are. All snowflakes are different. This is literally IQ at its finest and nothing more. You either see the "different" pattern of dominos and can solve the problem or you don't have the IQ and simply do not see it (and insult people that do see it call them stupid and conspiracy theorists). 4. Dealing with a lot of info: being able to analyse much information, while ignoring distractions. Academics that looked at data unsurprisingly found that higher IQ individuals had more diversified portfolios. And also, higher IQ individuals are able to analyse more data as well as ignore distractions (according to a BBC article). How to increase my IQ? There is a way. Only 1 way I know of: "Scientists found that multitasking reduced men IQ by 15 points, lowering them to the level of an 8 year old". I am certain it's not like this for women, prob just reduces it by 5 points or something, or maybe 0 idk. We men tunnel vision. So ye just focus on 1 goal only and get good at it. This "multitasking" will make you a complete noob. Literally an 8 year old to be more precise :D. Women have same average IQ as men also. I don't really know what the differences are for investing, probably not much. They're probably better at being organised too. That's just... so bad for me you have no idea. What a mess. Obviously it's also possible to learn about numbers and improve at it... And one learns to recognize snowflakes by studying plenty of snowflakes, regardless of his abilities (just will be easier for someone who scores higher that's all). EMOTIONAL QUOTIENT Why do I write so much? Good thing there is very little research about this, so not much to say. First, no, women do not score higher (in IQ either btw). Just because there is the word "emotional" in it people assume silly things. It's just a word. Irrelevant. So I'm calling it brzbjfbrhdjf from here on. These are pretty self-explanatory honestly. People with high brzbjfbrhdjf perform better than people with low brzbjfbrhdjf. There are exceptions. I found that people with LOW empathy made better debt collectors XD Better serial killers too I bet! A doc, not sure how serious, shows how they tested portfolio managers, and these had significantly higher brzbjfbrhdjf than average people. There is very little research on brzbjfbrhdjf, as opposed to IQ that has a lot of it, but there sure is a lot of "understanding" media articles about brzbjfbrhdjf, saying how great it is, as there are tons of articles saying how awful IQ is (insecure much?) and none praising it or just listing some of the positives. The market does not care where you bought, remember? It's about what the market is feeling, so go scream "BITCOIN IS GOING TO ZERO!" and find out if: - They are mocking you (honestly): They are complacent, euphoric or thrilled, depends. Can't really teach this... Have to "feel it" idk. - They are angry (includes mocking you but if you have high "empathy" & "social skills" you can tell they are mad): Anxious - They go "pfff", "I'm over it", they sigh: Well capitulated and depressed, bottom? So many people think the world revolves around them, and when there is someone they don't like they get persuaded that person is dumb or loses money XD They think if they believe hard enough it will happen? I find it stupid, so the term "emotional" intelligence might be accurate, the intelligence part anyway. I could go on but I think that's enough. If I find something interesting I'll share. It might be more important than IQ, OR not be more important but since all investors have high IQ anyway then IQ won't matter but "EQ" will differentiate between the mediocre ones and great ones. Having both = jackpots. OF COURSE here we talk about people that put in the hours. Obviously just having "good genetics" won't make you Mr Olympia if you drink beer all day long and never work out, know what I mean? People with low empathy can make money by the way, plenty of autists (famous for not being able to understand people feelings) are great money manager. Remember Michael Burry? Predicted the housing crisis and shorted morgage swaps, great at stock picks. Famous now, made lots of money. You know what else Michael Burry did? Short WAY too early. Because people were still way thrilled back then. And he quit managing other people money (I doubt he understood their stress), in an interview he explains how they were mad even after he made them lots of money. A guy with low empathy dealing with very emotional people (very emotional doesn't mean high "emotional" intelligence) and very little self-management (also little ba**s). 1. Self-Awareness: is the ability to understand how emotions affect yourself and other people. 2. Self-Management: is the ability to control impulsive decisions. 3. Motivation: is having a passion for what you do along with a curiosity for learning. 4. Empathy: as in the ability to understand how people feel (fear, euphoria, etc). 5. Social Skills: as in being aware of the people around you, people with different point of views. The military gets the best results by filtering at entry. Rather than punish everyone because of some gamblers, regulators ought to filter at entry. In some video game, would a MAGICIAN starting with 0 STR and built as a melee tank do well? No. People with low "IQ" and "EQ" have nothing to do in this business. Better to do something else. What else that I do not know. Society has a problem with low IQ individuals, there are no jobs for them. Tech advanced too fast humans can't keep up. Just convince intelligent women to focus on their careers and give welfare to dumb ones when they have kids, that'll solve the problem long term! I do not have autism (kinda disappointed), it's not that I do not KNOW this sounds distasteful to people, I am very aware of it, it's just that I don't give a rat's ass. Not going to start lying to be popular. Plus everyone can keep burying their heads in the sand, things will just keep getting worse. Specific to investing, people will low IQ/EQ will be told everyone can make it, buy a course or whatever, waste hundreds of hours, lose their money, quit. Oh great. But for a moment they felt really good and had high hopes. High hopes that got completely crushed. Great. At least some bullshiter got to be the nice guy! Most "1-4s" know they're not super smart and avoid the market, most people that get offended are 5+ but get offended in their name because they're so virtuous or something. But idk recently they're trying to "democratize" investing, and all sort of random people with no clue what they are doing and a gambling mentality are jumping in to pump the pyramid scheme higher. This can only end badly. So I wonder, are the people pushing for this nonsense really "well intentioned"? Or just trying to keep the pyramid scheme alive a bit longer and pump their holdings at the expense of "useless eaters"?
Education
by MrRenev
5
The Market Cycle of EmotionsWhen things are great, we feel that nothing can stop us. And when things go bad, we look to take drastic action. Because emotions can be such a threat to an investor's financial health, it is important to be aware of them. This awareness can then protect you from the negative consequences of impulsive and irrational reactions to these emotions. 1: Optimism, thrill and euphoria Investors all start with optimism. We commonly expect things to go our way, or we tend to expect a return for the risk of investing. As expectations are met, it is common to get excited about the possibility of even greater returns and the excitement becomes thrilling as the returns exceed expectations. At the top of the cycle is when investors experience euphoria. But it is here where investors are at the point of maximum financial risk. When we believe everything we touch turns to gold , we fool ourselves into believing we can beat the market, we cannot make mistakes, that excessive returns are commonplace and that we can tolerate higher levels of risk. 2: Complacency, denial, hope The second phase of the cycle occurs when the market stops meeting our new lofty expectations and begins to turn. At first, we anxiously watch the market for any signs of direction. Anxiety turns to denial and then quickly to fear, as the value of the investments decline. Many people will then start to act defensively and may think about switching out of riskier assets to more defensive shares or other asset classes such as bonds. 3: Panic, capitulation, despondency In the third phase of the cycle, the realities of a bear market come to the fore and an investor may become desperate. Many panic and withdraw from the market altogether – afraid of further losses. Those who persevere become despondent and wonder whether the markets are ever going to recover and whether they should be there at all. Ironically, at these times, an investor will commonly fail to recognize they are actually at the point of maximum financial opportunity. 4: Skepticism, caution, worry In the fourth stage of the cycle, investors may experience some skepticism when markets start to rise. They often have a sense of caution or worry, wondering if market growth will last.—and may be reluctant to invest money in the market at a point when prices are still relatively low and opportunities are attractive. What are the consequences of this emotional roller-coaster? Emotions turn rational investors into irrational investors. So it is important to remember that markets move and investments will always go in and out of favour. Developed, diversified long-term financial plans are placed in jeopardy when investors are confronted by extraordinary events because we are guided by our emotions. This is where the role of the financial advisor is of utmost importance – your advisor can help you separate your emotions from reality and endeavour to steer you on the path of rational investing. You can also help to avoid the emotional roller coaster by being aware of the emotions you are likely to experience. The five most common behavioural pitfalls are: Overconfidence – when investors over-rate their ability to select winning shares or investment managers. Loss aversion – research indicates a loss causes about twice as much pain as a gain causes pleasure. During periods of market volatility investors experience the sense of loss more acutely. Chasing past performance – we see this time and time again, but unfortunately, individual investors who abandon a well-diversified portfolio for bonds, or even cash, may be jeopardizing their future financial security. Timing the market – It is difficult to correctly predict the market's movements. Failure to rebalance – the risk/return characteristics of an investor's portfolio should be independent of what's happening in the market and this means selling high and buying low.* The temptation to fall into one of these traps can be resisted by developing and committing to a well defined, long-term investment plan. This may be the best way to protect yourself from your emotions. Diversification does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets. People do not change over time. Information and actions of the consonant received information people do the same actions. Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
59
Trading habits that lead to SUCCESS...Plan for success but have no expectations... A lot of trading emotion comes from expectation. Traders expect the next trade to be a winner, they expect this month to be profitable, they expect the USD to become bearish, etc, etc. Having no expectations can really help to reduce trading emotions. Obviously, you should still stick with a strategy and do all you can to BE success, just don't expect to succeed. Success will come as you unemotionally stick with a strategy that gives you an edge. Success comes from trading your strategy with consistency, not be giving-up when expectations are not met.
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
1
FALSE Trading Expectations #3... Win Rate (continued) I lose a lot of the time. A large amount of my trades are stopped-out for a loss. This does not make me a bad trader, it actually makes me a real trader! Most profitable traders are right only 40%-65% of the time. A lot of traders understand that there will be losing trades. What they don't understand is that there will be consecutive losing trades. Even a strategy that has a win rate of 65%, could have 10 consecutive losing trades, maybe even more! This does not make the strategy unprofitable or not worth using. Conclusion... Expect a lower win rate. A win rate of around 50% is ideal. Expect to have consecutive losing trades. Also expect to have consecutive winning trades.
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
FALSE Trading Expectations #2... Win RateForex trading is not a 'get rich quick' scheme. It can make you rich, but it will do this slowly. In order to make large returns, a trader may have to take large risks. High risk trading guarantees greater emotional and psychological challenges. This may lead to quick short-term profits but it will also lead to discouraging long-term losses. Too many traders expect far too much far too quickly. They review their performance and results on a daily or weekly basis, this can lead to discouragement and disappointment. Profitable traders review their results much more longer-term. Conclusion... Trading can make you rich, but it will make you rich slowly. To make trading work long-term, you need to risk a minimum. Expect to be patient. Review profits once a quarter or once a year.
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
2
Trading with WRONG expectations... #1Almost all traders understand the concept of a drawdown - a period of loss making. A trader is not going to have a 100% trade win rate - there will be losing trades - and there will be times of consecutive losing trades. For some reason, despite understanding this concept, many traders don't ACCEPT this concept. Let me explain... As soon as a trader hits a drawdown, the reaction is panic or discouragement. The following statements could flood the mind of the trader... 'The strategy is not profitable anymore' 'I need a more profitable trading strategy' 'I am going to lose too much, so I will reduce my position sizes' 'I need to increase my position sizes to win back these losses' 'I am so angry, I am going to risk all that I have left in my account' In other words, the trader becomes emotional and let's his emotions determine his trading decisions. This will always result in long-term failure. Conclusion... Accept that drawdowns will happen and expect drawdowns to happen, because they will happen!
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
13
5 Rules For Successful Trading!Trading is simple, but not easy. Traders have difficulty succeeding simply because they are unable to follow clear rules over extended periods of time. So what are the rules that every trader should follow? (in my opinion) 1- Only invest what you Can Afford to Lose. Only invest money you can afford to lose, never ever borrow money or take a loan from the bank to invest in forex, or any other type of investment. Because if you do, you will get emotional and make irrational mistakes. 2- 1% Risk per Trade. We only risk a small portion of our account per trade. We enter with 1% risk per trade (2% max). We enter with a fixed risk per trade, not with a fixed stop loss in pips, nor with a fixed lot size. That’s a common mistake many traders make. 3- Three Confluences Trades. (Technical Edge) Trading is nothing but a game probability. Moreover, we consider ourselves risk managers not only traders, as the only thing we have control over is "risk". The market can go anywhere. To be on the winning side, we need to have an edge over the market. One way to put the odds in our favor is by only entering trades when we have at least three confluences/clues, three things telling us to buy or sell lined-up together. One confluence may be random. For example, we only enter when we have a pattern, support, and divergence. And our rules have to be objective following a well-defined back tested trading plan. I personally use RichTL to make objective (rule-based) technical analysis. 4- 1 / 2 Risk Reward Ratio. (Risk Management Edge) Our second edge is going to be through risk and money management by entering with a positive risk-reward ratio. Remember, it is not about how many trades you win, what matters is how much you win when you win, and how much you lose when you lose. That’s exactly why we enter with a ½ RRR (or higher), which means we always target double our stop loss. This way even with a 50% win rate, we are still profitable. 5- Emotional stability. In the trading world, emotions are considered the enemy of traders. Knowing how to control emotions while trading can prove to be the difference between success and failure. When getting into a bad trade, the trader who can manage his psychology well will be able to minimize risk, while the trader who is emotional may make the situation worse. Therefore, knowing how to control your emotions very crucial in order to succeed in Forex trading. If you are not feeling well, don't trade. Remember: You don't have to catch every trade, and you don't have to trade every week. In fact, our 5 rules are all connected in a way or another. If you invest money you can’t afford to lose or enter with 10% risk per trade, chances are that you will get emotional and not follow your trading plan objectively by closing your trades before reaching 2R or even entering trades that are not according to your strategy. In parallel, even if you invest money you can afford to lose and risk 1% per trade, you won’t be consistently profitable if you don’t have a well-defined strategy that gives you an edge over the market technically or through risk management. In brief, stay away from trading if you don’t have these 5 rules.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TheSignalyst
100
The Most Common Emotions For TradersThe Most Common Emotions For Traders J: Joyful Traders feel joyful and happy seeing the security hit a new high. H: Hope Traders hope the uptrend will resume after the other traders stop profit-taking. S: Scare Traders are scare and worry that the price will continue to drop. Traders have to make a difficult decision to sell at a loss or hold on to the security as the price continues to fall. R: Regret Traders regretted not selling at the previous high price. E: Excitement Traders have new excitement when they see the price bottom as an opportunity to go long. M: More Confident Traders feel more confident with the second bottom valley. I: Indecision Traders cannot make a decision temporarily to trade higher or lower. Thank you for reading! Greenfield Remember to click "Like" and "Follow!" Disclosure: Article written by Greenfield. A market idea by Greenfield Analysis LLC for educational material only.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by GreenfieldAnalysis
Surf the waves of investor emotionsThere all all these stages, 14 in total, but this is too detailled. Good to know and try to guess but no one is going to get them right. It is better and more accurate to see the market in 4 cycles, or 6 if we separate the top & bottom. Market participants go through those emotions every time, with stocks, gold, crypto. Speculation in currencies and commodities actually serves a purpose, I would not describe market movements the same way (except precious metals). Let me describe every emotion, starting with a trending bull market: 1- Optimism: The market is clearly in a bull market. Investors think the market is likely to continue higher. Excitement: As more investors notice the uptrend, it keeps going up, probably faster. Investors get positive confirmation bias & expect more gains. Thrill: Every one is a pro and they start making big calls, stop acting reserved/respectfully. Bulls start to celebrate. Bears are disgusted. 2- Euphoria: Day traders & Mainstreet are fully invested. Forums & investing sites get record new accounts. Everyone is a genius calling for the moon. 3- Denial: "It's ok we need to cool off". Investors start calling themselves long term investors that do not care about noise. Anxiety: Bagholders, which is the right description by now, start to really worry. The price is not going higher, the "pullback" lasted long. Fear: The price starts to go down, losses accelerate. Bears start saying "told you so" and bagholders get triggered very easilly. 4- Desperation: "Pff I hope you're happy". Baggies finally start to call it a bear market. Bulls see no light at the end of the tunnel. Panic: Bulls that saw light at the end of the tunnel realize it was a freight train. Losses start getting felt. Fund clients harass PMS. Capitulation: Gordon Brown, head of Her Majesty's Treasury, "rebalances" and sells the bottom. Bulls cannot take it anymore. 5- Depression: hopelessness - despair - nooses. Bears are empowered, forgetting they are permabears. A few will feel regret and buy at euphoria. 6- Skepticism: Investors gave up trying to time the market. They got slapped many times and are now cautious. Bad time for any short term strategies. Hope: They allow themselves to think the worse might be over, and day dream about new highs, but still very reluctant to buy (10/10 logic). Relief: Many investors are back in the green, or around breakeven, and the "scary prices" are now far behind. The pain is over they can breathe. A few practical examples People are calling the top on tech stocks and calling it euphoria. It is BIG euphoria, not small 1/14 euphoria yet, prob. Once we go higher, when the REAL crash begins, gamblers will go "last time they said", "I held the dip in the second half of 2020 every one was calling the crash", and so on. The clowns such as "captain of the ship" Dave Portnoy will get all these confirmation bias, he will probably end up rekt in the end. At this point the stock market has become a ponzi scheme. Grandma and 20 year olds will hear that some random idiot with no experience got rich, so hey they can do it too, and every ignorant beginner will join and be euphoric for a few weeks, then depressed for a few months. Late buyers will think Portnoy is an "OG" and the new Warren Buffet, I will point out his flaws and laugh at the "master the legend", I will be mocked and his fanboys will flame me, call me jealous, "why attack him? I made lots of money thanks to him". And then I will be proven right as always, and the "OGS" will vanish away. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. I'll try some small buys on the way up, short sell at 20k and skrekt every one as usual. Not sure with these annoying US tax rules. Some other ones than stocks. Already have one for BTC so no point making it again You sort of always find more or less the same thing. In Forex this does not happen the same, I have my own dynamic ever changing way to divide market cycles, does not always work, nice when it does. Gold is a bit of both world. Depends the TF. Bouncing from a level to another This is how I see it for forex, 80% of the time just stay away but who cares, there are plenty of pairs and you can also watch a secondary asset class (commodities are the most similar thing). And 20% of the time be picky, go for the good stuff. Not that complicated. Seems silly to be zooming in intensly. Days to weeks holding periods is considered short term. I do short to very short term already, but compared to the average retail trader I'm like a dinosaur that holds forever. It is just ridiculous. There is no supply and demand laws it's all noise. What do they think they are? Manual quants? Don't most quants trade stocks? Aren't most professional fx "day traders" just bankers with insider info that cheat and scam retail of their savings? Legally... I crack up imagine the average week end gambler with his chart full of ridiculous indicators on a 5 minutes time frame with huge spreads in some choppy random market try so hard to find something why oh why? The goal clearly is not money. So what is it? A challenge? Sure might find something. And I might get a stronger arm if I keep hitting my nuts with a hammer. "Well if it works for you". The goal is actually money. Ridiculous. That there are so many jokers that think they will make MORE money, not LESS. Like they'll make 1% a day gambling on noise. I find the idea of day trading absolutely repulsive: waking up at 7, drinking his little coffee, looking at his little charts, taking some gamble at a huge cost, then getting out pumpus interuptus closing everything at 4 pm or something while the market is still active and just going to watch tv and proud of his day patting himself on the back totally oblivious of how stupid he looks, a sheep that got brainwashed by brokers. Beurk. Day traders equivalent to lifting are crossfitters with their little tight green and yellow outfits, elastic bands around the head and arms and legs, little crossfit water bottle, and little 2 kg pink or green or blue dumbbells, training their injuries, lifting their little weights, making sure they stop before failure wouldn't want to hurt yourself princess. I want to throw up. Day traders are to Forex what Slipknot is to technical death metal fans. Lmao just hunting for some silly pattern they read somewhere and of course didn't bother to backtest because nah that would be too much hard work. Calling themselves speculators because they have several screens 🤢 And you can't even mock them because by the time you say "haha told you" they already blew up and quit. This isn't stupid? A big watchlist = ignore 80% of the lesser PA. Pick only the juiciest berries. There isn't much to it. Looking at the random noise is the best way to get lost. It's like chess. Simple rules. But then it takes alot to be a master. Ye that's how I see currencies. I divide it in 3: - "Skepticism": 85% of the time. Not good enough for me. Not just trend following, even other strategies. Especially counter trend. - Optimism: 14% of the time. Trend following but also anything else. When most pros are watching. Will buy falling knives, not sideways knives. - Weeee: 1% of the time. Quick. Less than 24 hours.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
5
Speculating & Investing: It is not for young people!All the middle age dudes that were worried that they don't have the fresh quick mind of younger players can rest assured, they are not disadvantaged, it is the other way around. Everyone has heard 1000 times that what made a trader/investor was being wise, or another way to say it is rational, or not emotional. It's not having quick reflexes or being young or even having 200 IQ. Note I said speculating not trading, market making arbitrage or executing someone else's orders doesn't count. Warren Buffet starter & Jesse Lauriston Livermore started at 15 yo or younger but they are exceptions. And Warren didn't make big returns before his mid twenties, Jesse Livermore started making real money in his twenties too i htink with his first big win in 1901 at 24 yo, he turned $10,000 into $500,000 after buying Northern Pacific Railway. It may be a stereotype that young people are dumb and reckless I don't know, and every one (except the teens themselves) has noticed that: - Wall Street Bets clowns buying options on leverage "it's within my personal risk tolerance" - 21% of college students with loans in the USA have used those loans to buy a cryptocurrency - Robinhood, Tesla, Bitcoin are extremely popular with 18-21 yo's - "Ok boomer" etc, they think absolute legends are just "too old to understand" their investment decisions - A large number of young have delusional beliefs "we can just tax the rich and start a communist utopia" - Licking toilet seats, licking groceries and putting them back for "fame" (these are of course the most extreme cases) - GUH! Learning to invest or gamble takes time, teenagers are better off continuing their lives, and if this interests them they can learn as a hobby in the background. Who loses everything? It's always young people that go nuts right? Maybe it's a rite of passage and they are all condemned to lose everything. So anyway, if you thought some people were "too young" to participate in the stock market or currency exchange etc, you are right. And if you thought old people were too old, and the best were all super young and super quick, you were wrong. Soros started in his 30s btw... Now, for the proof. Here is what the science says: www.nimh.nih.gov www.urmc.rochester.edu So all the 30+ boomers that thought it was too late, emm no actually it's not too late, 30 yo is scientifically the perfect and earliest time to get started ;) And maybe I didn't throw my life away by starting too late after all yay :) And next time a "legend master of charts" tries giving you a lesson, it might be the moment to throw this to them. They're so ridiculously embarassing and delusional thought, probably won't work. There is 1 exception: Our governments & lawmakers. They never seem to really develop that rational part much. When you are in this business for several years you can tell that the prefrontal cortex is the most important asset to success. Before IQ, before intuition, before how much money you start with. By very far. I hope you found this as interesting as I did. With lockdown & markets sideways 90% of the time, I think I will make more ideas about history like my last one, the winning mindset, how to develop a strategy and so on.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
5
Lessons about ultimate ignorance, survivor bias, exp. growthHello, I wanted to write about these 3 subjects, I have alot on my mind but I'll try keeping it compact and clean. 1- Ultimate Ignorance * People are persuaded the stock market will always go up. Why? They expect to all become rich with absolutely no effort like magical money will just appear in their pockets. Even a woldwide index isn't completely safe, global markets have dropped and stagnated for more than 100 years in the past and stock markets are only 500 years old. Concerning individual countries there has never been one that lasted forever... So it's pretty irrational as Einstein would say to expect a different outcome this time. And money doesn't just magically grow on trees forever what are those people thinking... They are going to learn a harsh lesson. * Certain people are completely stupid and out of this world. I have no word. The type of person crying because Bernie is not the dem frontrunner. One of those said, and it seemed it wasn't a troll, that "rich" bloomberg was so rich he could give every single american citizen $1 million which would change the life of most americans. And when people tried explaining how stupid that claim was, that person defended it "bla bla bla the point is he could give 1 million to every one and he wouldn't notice". The kind of people that watch clown news network every day and believe what they say. Even in congress alot fail basic maths taught to 6 yos. And of course they think infinite money can be printed and make every one rich. And if need money for free stuff always simple solution "just tax the rich". All of their idiotic ideas are traumatising. And on top of that it has been tried and failed. I lost all hope for the human race... Might be living in noisy stressful big towns making people lose their minds. We need to end wageslavery and have an exodus back to rural areas asap, but this is an idea for another post. * 2 years ago Paul Singer (the Argentina Vulture Capitalist managing a few dozen billions in a fund) had this to say about Bitcoin in a letter sent to investors, unlike Warren Buffet he does not try to look nice and friendly not hurt anyone feelings and just says it how it is: “This is not just a bubble. It is not just a fraud. It is perhaps the outer limit, the ultimate expression, of the ability of humans to seize upon ether and hope to ride it to the stars... But is it not glorious that when the equivalent of nothing attracts priests and parishioners who run up the price, the very willingness of the mob to buy it at higher and higher prices is seen as validation of the thing, rather than an indication of the limitless ignorance of swaths of the human race?” I completely agree. And like this person, I just say it how it is no point sugar coating it, Warren does it and crypto victims are still hating the guy so what is the point? He admitted there was genius in Bitcoin, when he called it a "Brilliant scam". I completely agree. Crypto HAS to be the ultimate never seen before super scam, the biggest ponzi in history. They can't ever have been any scam this big. Social security and debt are different so I'd count them separately. Bitcoin is one of the biggest mass delusion the dumbest the peak of human ignorance. "The outer limit" yes, this must be it, how can it possibly get dumber? 2- Survivor bias How ignorant are you? Here is a little test, got this from a recent video on youtube about prediction: This is an image extracted from the damaged planes the air force has in their hangar (I think it was the RAF but it doesn't matter): Command wants to armor the plane. Where should they place the armor? (can't full armor the plane makes it heavy and costs money & a nation cannot print or tax itself into wealth) The red areas represent where the planes took bullets on average. Well what does this tell us? It tells us that the planes in the hangars have this composite. In other words, the planes that made it home. I know alot of people ("just tax the rich make everything free") that would instantly say "armor the red area" but it is so wrong. This is why natural selection favors the smartest, and why wars are won by smarter faster thinking commands (cough cough france germany ww2). The reason why their planes had very little impacts in the mid fuselage engines and cockpit is really obvious... Those ones did not make it home. So all they get back are the survivors... That didn't get hit in the priority areas. Understanding survivor bias is important. In this video it was a class lesson and about half the students gave the wrong answer. Of the other half I am willing to bet they were mostly just afraid to look stupid or sleeping. 3- Exponential Growth The graph is a classic. Some examples: - Bacteria Colonies: the stagnate when food rarefies then just die of hunger/eat each other - Virusses (Corona...) - Internet Virusses - Ponzi Schemes (you know one...) - Product Life Cycle (the radio was introduced - Lag Phase, grew till every one had one, stagnated at 90% adoption or so, and has been dying with tv the internet smartphones) - Bubbles ("back to normal" is stagnation) - And more What is great about maths is how you learn that everything is correlated and works the same. And add finance which also does that, your brain goes boom. By the way, in Asia the coronavirus so many nuts are so afraid of, is in the decline phase. In Europe and NA I think we are at stagnation phase but there has been a spike in case, probably from all the people testing for it. What a joke. Idiocy to the limit "outer limit". Peak ignorance. People are fighting for toilet paper. I don't even understand. Some numbers. Worldwide cases of CoronaHoax: 150,000. Probably a bit more with the infected people that don't even notice it LOL! H1N1 2009 (swine flu) cases: 700,000,000 to 1,500,000,000. Half a million deaths. There was like easilly 1 billion cases of H1N1. It is still good that government try to limit the spread of the virus, to protect their elders. But all these ignoramus panicking, and whining Trump didn't do enough (Obama did nothing for 1 billion infected H1N1...). Oh and by the way an analysis was done on 1 billion infected H1N1... It was a smaller deal than the common flu THAT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR. The pathetic little common cold known as Covid-19 (it is a common cold) is on the decline already :) Mass hysteria over this... so this is it... Clown world. The exponential spread of idiocy is at max now right? Ah right we keep helping them out rather than let natural selection do its job so the decline won't ever happen. "You have to be a contrarian to make money". Yup. When the herd panics "CO2" (makes so much sense) "CoronaPoop" (sad) or gets all excited "Bitcoin moon soon" (reptilian brains) you know it is time to consider thinking the opposite. Interesting how everyone that makes money consistantly, all the big time billionaire financeers, all think the same. 90% are going to have this mob mentality to varying degrees. SHEEP. Illogical irrational ignorant sheep. Understand how the reptilian herd behaves, profit from it, rince and repeat. No one ever made money being a sheep (ok there were a few but they got lucky). Always stay rational. This gets repeated so often via "do not be emotional", but those that repeat this number 1 tip do not always understand it and think it means you should avoid going completely berserk (clearly they don't trade and just repeat something they read), it means BE RATIONAL (as opposed to emotional). And this is the 1 exception, the 1 free meal. In this case there is a very simple way (well maybe not for everyone, but simple on paper) to make alot of money. By simply being rational you already beat 90% of the competition. It is magical.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
9
EURJPY psychology can we accept that 1% loss ? so this breakdown shows 2 outcomes and what is possible in both situation and your trading psychology behind both sets up ? can you accept this 1% loss knowing that this trade shows and lines up with the higher time frames ? and seeing how we got there with some strong momentum would this put you of this trade ? biggest issue behind trading falls from your emotions we wouldn't take this trade if we haven't risk correctly or we haven't respected what the markets give us or we revenge trade after taking loss after loss accept any outcome and train your mind to cut your looses and ride your winners happy trading :)
Education
by LucasMatthew
The Market Cycle of EmotionsWhen things are great, we feel that nothing can stop us. And when things go bad, we look to take drastic action. Because emotions can be such a threat to an investor's financial health, it is important to be aware of them. This awareness can then protect you from the negative consequences of impulsive and irrational reactions to these emotions. 1: Optimism, thrill and euphoria Investors all start with optimism. We commonly expect things to go our way, or we tend to expect a return for the risk of investing. As expectations are met, it is common to get excited about the possibility of even greater returns and the excitement becomes thrilling as the returns exceed expectations. At the top of the cycle is when investors experience euphoria. But it is here where investors are at the point of maximum financial risk. When we believe everything we touch turns to gold, we fool ourselves into believing we can beat the market, we cannot make mistakes, that excessive returns are commonplace and that we can tolerate higher levels of risk. 2: Complacency, denial, hope The second phase of the cycle occurs when the market stops meeting our new lofty expectations and begins to turn. At first, we anxiously watch the market for any signs of direction. Anxiety turns to denial and then quickly to fear, as the value of the investments decline. Many people will then start to act defensively and may think about switching out of riskier assets to more defensive shares or other asset classes such as bonds. 3: Panic, capitulation, despondency In the third phase of the cycle, the realities of a bear market come to the fore and an investor may become desperate. Many panic and withdraw from the market altogether – afraid of further losses. Those who persevere become despondent and wonder whether the markets are ever going to recover and whether they should be there at all. Ironically, at these times, an investor will commonly fail to recognize they are actually at the point of maximum financial opportunity. 4: Skepticism, caution, worry In the fourth stage of the cycle, investors may experience some skepticism when markets start to rise. They often have a sense of caution or worry, wondering if market growth will last.—and may be reluctant to invest money in the market at a point when prices are still relatively low and opportunities are attractive. What are the consequences of this emotional roller-coaster? Emotions turn rational investors into irrational investors. So it is important to remember that markets move and investments will always go in and out of favour. Developed, diversified long-term financial plans are placed in jeopardy when investors are confronted by extraordinary events because we are guided by our emotions. This is where the role of the financial advisor is of utmost importance – your advisor can help you separate your emotions from reality and endeavour to steer you on the path of rational investing. You can also help to avoid the emotional roller coaster by being aware of the emotions you are likely to experience. The five most common behavioural pitfalls are: Overconfidence – when investors over-rate their ability to select winning shares or investment managers. Loss aversion – research indicates a loss causes about twice as much pain as a gain causes pleasure. During periods of market volatility investors experience the sense of loss more acutely. Chasing past performance – we see this time and time again, but unfortunately, individual investors who abandon a well-diversified portfolio for bonds, or even cash, may be jeopardizing their future financial security. Timing the market – It is difficult to correctly predict the market's movements. Failure to rebalance – the risk/return characteristics of an investor's portfolio should be independent of what's happening in the market and this means selling high and buying low.* The temptation to fall into one of these traps can be resisted by developing and committing to a well defined, long-term investment plan. This may be the best way to protect yourself from your emotions. Diversification does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets. People do not change over time. Information and actions of the consonant received information people do the same actions. Also I recommend reading these charts
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
71
How to play the breakouts!?!Lately, there has been a lot of buzz about BTC! Will it breakout or not? In the end, it did not as we predicted with the accuracy of a surgent in our most viewed post till now that you can find in RELATED IDEAS. Here is a nice school example of how ETH does the breakouts and probably similar pattern will be played in the near future. We will write more about that in the next posts but for now, let's focus on the lessons. A double top has been a pattern that ETH forms quiet often. Probably cause of false hopes when people just wait for ETH to do the same run as BTC and then hope gets denied or to say it better - run postponed! It happened before (2017), it happened in the near past (2019) and it will probably happen in the near future. In order to get the best return in time (RIT) and not only the best return on investment (ROI), it's important to know when to expect the moon so a trader can optimize his or her positions. Actually, trading is not about buying at the cheapest price, but buying (or selling) close to the time when the price will move the most. So when is that? In this example, it's clear that after breakout retest! People usually FOMO when the breakout happens but history shows that in most cases it will be retested. However, at the point of best entry (RIT), some start to get scared that the breakout was not successful. Some might even sell in panic (FUD - Fear, uncertainty, and doubt). This post is made in order to remember what to do and how to work with your emotions (fear, anger,...) when we are close to breakouts. Buy the retest! Patience is always the key. Keep calm, use the knowledge and you should be fine. Take care and GL! PS: You can see Elliot Waves count in this example also, but let's leave that for some other occasion. For now, it is just important to know that in this example wave 4 needs to be higher than wave 1.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDEducation
by Samoto
2
Lessons from an Experienced Trader #3Lesson 7 Trade Outcome is Random The outcome of any given trade is random, no matter how strong your edge is. It is impossible to predict whether a trade will result in a loss, decent profit, or a windfall profit. Contrary to what most Price Action traders and price analysts believe, you cannot and will never be able to predict the market. Most amateur traders fail to recognize this fact, or deny this reality altogether. They believe eventually, they will be able to avoid losing trades and pick winners. They do not understand the outcome of any given trade is random, and therefore impossible to know before hand. Consider weather prediction as an example. Meteorologists have highly sophisticated weather models and algorithms to predict weather behavior, just like traders and institutions in the market. Yet the weathermen cannot accurately predict what will occur. They can say "There is a 60% chance of rain today if you live in X." But they cannot say exactly when or where rain will fall. It is the same in the market. You may have a good idea of what may occur, and even be right! However, there is still a reasonable chance (usually around 40%) that you are wrong, and the exact opposite will occur. The market is always right. It does not matter what you think or believe should or will happen. All that matters is what is happening. Just because a trade looks good or an edge is strong, does not mean it will result in a profit. There is still an opposing probability that it will fail. The point is that you will never know beyond a reasonable doubt what the market will do next. You may have a hunch, or a strong edge, but that will only get you so far. Therefore the only thing to do is to always take your edge, because you never know if this will be the windfall profit you are looking for, a small profit, or a loss. And quite frankly, it does not matter! Lesson 8 Market Outcome Does Not Matter The outcome of any single trade does not matter. It is very common for traders to become attached to the outcome of this individual trade. This is what leads to emotions, anger and frustration with trading and the market. We get stuck in the mindset that we have to win X amount of profit like 2X risk on this trade, or have to make money every day to be a profitable trader. This is not the case at all. In fact you only have to win one 1 or 2 really good trades out of 10 to maintain a consistent performance. Any single trade is irrelevant to a trading system or strategy. It is the cumulative result over a series of trades that results in a profit. This is why it is so important to know and only trade your edge, otherwise you introduce randomness into your performance, and are unable to produce consistency. *If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
Education
by tradersmentality
Overcoming Emotions and Zen TradingOvercoming Emotions Most traders want to "overcome" their emotions. They view thoughts and emotions as the enemy which prevents them from succeeding in the market. This is a false perception. Yes emotions and thoughts can lead to actions in the market, but they are impossible to remove. So long as you are human you will have emotions and thoughts. There is an alternative to removing them, and that is to use them to your advantage in the market. By practicing mindfulness, which is awareness of thoughts, emotions, and perceptions, you can learn to recognize how these affect your trading performance. By recognizing and being aware of them, you have a chance to change the outcome. For instance if you consistently enter poor trades due to fear of missing out. When you become aware of this fear you can learn to stop yourself from entering and avoid the poor trades that hurt your performance. There is a direct correlation between how you feel about yourself or the market, and how you perform. If you are worried about money you will overly focus on risk or prices going against your position even if only slightly, and likely make a mistake by exiting too soon. Or you do not want to take the loss and will hold the trade too long, hoping the market will let you off the hook with a smaller loss. What is Zen Trading about? Zen trading is a mindset of flowing with the market without hesitation, being aware of and trading along side emotions, and making actions intuitively rather than forcefully. A Zen trader remains in a relaxed, effortless state of mind; without any internal struggle. He does not attach his self worth to his performance at any given time, and is unhindered by market outcomes. He acts on his edge when it is present without hesitating, and takes what the market gives him when it is time to do so. He trusts himself, his strategy, and the market to provide him with a consistent performance over time; whether or not he makes money on this trade, today, or this week. He is aware of the bigger picture; the Tao or life, and knows there is more to life than trading or money. Trading is not his life. It is simply something he does to earn a living, and he seeks to maintain a Zen spirit in his trading and actions in the market. *If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by tradersmentality