Could we just chop around until Sept?Barring a major new event could this be our direction? Or with an equal balance of good and bad headlines..
ES
Weekly Market Update: Triangle Pattern Conclusion UnderwayAs of right now I would say the triangle pattern certainly is the prevailing pattern thesis. A triangle pattern is one that neither gives bulls nor bears much hope or despair as it tugs at both camps because its range bound. For this trader, I would classify myself as bearish on the overall market, however that does not preclude me from getting long for profit. As of my writing, I am currently short the ES and plan on closing out those positions down in my target box.
As we begin our descent into my target box, I should have enough price action to dial in my position closing area more so. From today’s price of 4130 down into the area of approximately (The Sweet Spot) 3950, I plan to access the pattern for a potential long. If price has declined in a corrective manner (3-Wave Pattern) into my target box, then a long into the 4300-4500 makes sense.
I wanted to keep this post simple, concise and to the point.
We have enough noise to contend with between this regional banking crisis, inflation, the Fed, Jobs and the overall economy.
Based on the pattern I have as of today, the above are my expectations…and as of today, I have no additional information that would cause me to change that analysis.
Best to all,
Chris
US 500 LongIf this is an Inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern, 4200 is the target.
What we need to see is the price get above the recent POC.
Blood is in the streets.
The Fed needs to get some new expectations out and deliver some news that comforts the market. Or this is their way of creating financial turmoil that gets job losses that crushes the demand. You choose your narrative.
Or, maybe the news is designed to shake everyone's confidence so that the actual money men of this world can buy at a discount.
4/4 Watchlist + NotesSPY - We were spot on with our analysis going into today's session. Last night I mentioned that we had a strong close on the daily and weekly and that I wanted to see us push higher. We also stayed within a 1% range today as I had also hoped to see (.71% range total today). Didn't quite get the movement we were hoping for (Inside Day), but we still were accurate otherwise. We closed green on the day and made a smaller green candle than we did Friday, which signals a few things for me. Here are all the considerations I have currently for my prediction for tomorrow:
1) Slightly overextended on the daily + close to exhaustion risk, (Bearish)
2) Still have strong momentum on the daily and weekly, (Bullish)
3) We are nearing the top of a broadening formation created a few weeks back, (Slightly Bullish)
4) Finished green today with a healthy looking green candle (Bullish)
With all of this in mind, I think that we now need to target 412-413 range sometime this week. There is really nothing stopping SPY from continuing to run other than the fact that it is in extended territory. For tomorrow my prediction is simple: I am slightly bullish, but understand that we can move hard in either direction tomorrow. Tomorrow's movement will be heavily influenced by 2 things: Whether we gap up or down during PM, and whether we break today's high or low first. If we break today's high first (Not including PM movement) then I think 412.91 is our target for tomorrow. If we break the low first, then I believe we could see somewhere in the 406.50-407.50 range. The 3rd scenario I can see happening is we take out today's high and then proceed to dump and take out today's low, forming an engulfing day. I think the first two scenarios are the most realistic, but they are all valid scenarios I could see happening tomorrow. Overall: Skeptically Bullish
Watchlist + Bias:
SHOP - 3-1 Daily: Bullish
QQQ - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
MSFT - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
PYPL - 2-1 Daily and Weekly: Slightly Bullish
DOCU - 2-1 Daily and 3-1-1 Weekly: Neutral
Main Watch: SHOP and DOCU
SHOP - 3-1 Daily with a huge gap that is partially filled to the upside. I am hoping to break to break today's high tomorrow and push higher. I think it has really good momentum to keep pushing higher. Would love to target 48.57 tomorrow. Will maybe play downside too, but mostly just focused on the upside move
DOCU - This one still hasn't broken out of the inside week setup. it is now actively a 3-1-1-1, which is just unheard of for the weekly chart. Im open to playing either side. I think with this one being in a 2-1 daily, we will get to see which direction we will finally move in for the next few days/weeks. Considering swinging as well. Preferably want to play upside, but I will take what I can get.
Yesterday's Main Watch:
SQ - (Status:) Winner (Personally Trade?) Yes
we opened under our put entry, but the play was still valid from open in my opinion. Cons from my trade peaked around 23% and I actually ended up taking a small loss because I was looking for a better entry to swing puts, but ended up not liking the swing setup, so I just took a small loss on my starter position + the extra cons I added when averaging down. Overall was in for about 40% of my target position size, and took about a 12% loss on that which translates to a roughly 5% loss had it been a normal position for me. I still count this as a winner for the list because it saw solid gains from a very readable entry. Had I been day trading and not looking for a swing entry, I would have had a different outcome, but at the end of the day, I had a plan and followed it, which is something I can't and won't be upset over. Weekly is still not broken out of, so SQ remains on my personal watchlist for the rest of the week. I wanna see what tomorrow holds for SQ before considering a new position.
Watchlist Stats:
1/1 Spy Predictions
1/1 Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: SQ (23%+)
Personal Stats:
0/1 On Trades This Week
Overall Green/Red: Red (extremely small). Early in the week. Can easily come back from today's small loss.
Trade Smart Tomorrow!
SPY | Informative | Day Trading 04-03-2023CME_MINI:ESM2023
Here are the price targets based on bullish and bearish price actions.
S&P 500 continue with the Uptrend ☝️On S&P 500 is nice to see strong buying reaction from the price 4118 , there is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated...
I thing that buyers from this area will be defend this long position...
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again...
Strong volume area + Uptrend is my mainly reason for this long trade....
Happy trading
Dale
ES Quarterly AnalysisES now at pivotal area, 50% retracement of the down move at $4201.75.
Staying neutral while paying attention to internals, news and data releases I believe will be just as critical as ever when attempting to risk in these markets.
Strong candle formed buying all previous quarters selling from highs, so I do think there's potential for continuation to the upside.
Weekly SPX Trade(another A ICT setup) 3/29/23Beautiful setup today and was able to catch a nice price swing. Here was once again my thinking for today and my reasoning for entry: Factors for trade:
Big London/Asian Session or Afterhours-Premarket run up.
Swept liquidity(high of day, premarket high)
bearish news
Market decision time again - Up or downDecision making time again~ watching closely these 2 days
Here are my POC targets on the weekly shown
$ES - Key levels - will shorts be trapped??Weird day today with NYSE VOLD up all day while NASDAQ VOLDQ down all day. Clearly shown by the big range indecision movements.
Key level to watch for a potentially huge bull run
- $4011 area, a breakout could trigger a significant bull run and catch shorts off-guard
Any thoughts?
$SPY $SPX $ES $QQQ $NAS $NQ
Special Update: Just a Precautionary MeasureAs of yesterdays close my entire 401k which is reasonably substantial was shifted to a 4% Money Market Account.
This will come as no surprise to my members (nor my followers on Trading View) that I’m not particularly bullish. From a planning standpoint I’m more comfortable with 4% and NO capital at risk than being exposed to the US Market. Maybe I’m early in doing so… but I felt it more honest to at least make my members aware of my actions.
Please do not ask me if I advise you do the same. I’m not a financial advisor nor am I licensed to provide such advice.
3/28 Daily Plan Please see attached videos for daily targets.
===========================================
03/27 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March
Weekly Pivot is 3,990
Targets
1. 4,038
2. 4,080
3. 4,130
Targets
1. 3,950
2. 3,890
3. 3,835
Now trading at 4,026
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 4,008
2. Weekly pivot at 3,990
3. Each weekly target.
**Side notes: ***
1. Balance is daily timeframe
2. Balance in weekly timeframe; H4082.5, L3840.75, HB3962
3. Balance in monthly timeframe. H4208, L3814, HB4020.
4. When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
TLTGimme gimme .. haven't posted on Tradingview in a while so now want to give heads up go long TLT very soon with dated calls or shares. possibly even 103 lvl
SPY/NQ Short-Squeeze Setting Up Nicely.Are you following my research yet?
Last weekend, I published a YouTube video suggesting the NASDAQ/TECH were poised for a 15~20% rally - driving the SPY 7 to 9% higher.
Now, my SPY Cycle Patterns called today as a Pullback and tomorrow as a Momentum Rally.
Get ready for a massive SHORT-SQUEEZE over the next few weeks. April will start off with the Nasdaq/SPY targeting higher peaks.
Follow my research.
Taking another shotSell: 4010 or higher
Stop: 4035
Notes : second sell attempt based on the model
The model:
The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums in price on a daily and weekly basis. A fancy way of saying a trading system that detects specific patterns in price, time, volume, and volatility and indicates whether to buy or sell.
On winning trades after 1 day take at least ⅓ of the position off and move stop to breakeven
SP500, All you need to know.S&P500
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
In this video I share my opinion on the current situation with the stock market. Plus, a lot of tips have been shared that you might want to add them to your trading skills.
Trade safely.
Trader Leo.
ES - Upside Breakout Underway? Observational at this point... "Prepare for the Unexpected" fits this thesis.
Are we breaking out to the upside? Time and price are ripe for a move out of this 5 month long pattern I am labeling the "a & b" of a higher order "B" leg with the "c" leg up to follow.
Notice the price pattern in the two white boxes...see how they touched the channel line, backed off, broke through, tested them on the retrace then sharply moved up. The fractals in both of these instances are typical of initiating bullish waves. They are more often than not very erratic, chaos laden time periods. Direction does not become clear until there is a clear breakaway from the price structure. Are we currently experiencing one of those events?
My expectation for months (See link below dated 2/4/23) has been that we would need to exceed the Aug '22 highs to complete the longer term corrective pattern and ameliorate the oversold condition in the overall market and specifically the NAS100 stocks. Basically luring retail participation back into the market before the next serious leg down.
Weekly ES chart dressed in Spring colors for longer term picture of what this COULD look like...
ES/SPX - What lies ahead...What is the near/longer term direction of the market?
Here's my take
I believe we are and will be in a "trader's market for the foreseeable future. This can be an excellent environment to make make in provided you manage risk by picking your entries judiciously.
From an Elliot wave perspective I think we are at an important fib level in the context of the current corrective wave as I see it.
I believe we have reached the peak of the b wave subdivision of b. This level is at the .618 fib level of the larger channel that we are in. From a risk perspective I think we can use the Groundhog's Day high or one marginal new high with a firm rejection as a stop point for this proposed scenario as laid out in the chart.
I am bullish on an intermediate term basis with one more sizeable sell-off that will set us up for a nice bull move to the ES 4500 area.
Good trading to you.
Weekly Update: Are we headed towards my Target Box Today?Today's price action will be crucial as to whether or not we head directly into my target box. My past posts have provided enough context. The sweet spot to target is 3772.
Daily Trade Plan In case daily targets are achieved, please follow targets from weekly plan.
Weekly Pivot is 3,950 .
Targets
1. 3,988
2. 4,038
3. 4,090
4. 4,140
Targets
1. 3,898
2. 3,840
3. 3,794
4. 3,696
#ES_F 3.22.23 Day Trading PrepFED Day!
Market might be gearing up for a big move today, on a bigger timeframe we found our top, found or low and now back to the middle of the range. Yesterday showed us that we still have buyers but most of the buyers right now are large short covering and momentum longs from Daily Support which puts us in interesting spot. Currently over 4012-3990 Daily Support inside Previous Days Range and looks like accepted in a bigger 4100-4000 range which to me says possibility that we push higher before or on the Fed BUT I also think that is a spot where we can find size sellers as well and if we will have Supply this thing is not held up by much Support IF 4012-3890 breaks and take out 3976-71 thing could get ugly to the downside with lower Daily Support to watch at 3915-3890 and if things get ugly to 3800-3790 but that only happens I think IF we do make a push towards 4084-4100 and cant hold/reverse. Currently we are in this 4046-4000 range if we can hold 4030-25 possibly move towards that 4061-46 area and then we can watching if we can continue out of it before the fed or not and if we fail to hold 4030-25 could head for our lower support.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77 Current 4046-42 For Continuation Higher 4061-56
Support : Key Daily 4012-3980 // 3915-3890 // 3810-3790 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 3994-90 // 3976-71 Current 4030-25 ?
Weekly Plan Update. ES Futures June03/22/2023
==========================
03/20 Weekly Plan. ES Futures June
Weekly Pivot is 3,950 .
Targets
1. 3,988
2. 4,038
3. 4,090
4. 4,140
Targets
1. 3,898
2. 3,840
3. 3,794
4. 3,696
Now trading at 4033
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 3,963.75
2. Weekly pivot at 3,950
3. Each weekly target.
Side notes:
1. OTFU in daily timeframe, ends at 3932.5.
2. OTFD in weekly timeframe; ends at 3999.
3. Balance in monthly timeframe. H4208, L3814, HB4020.
4. When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
