ES SP500 Weekly Trade IdeaI'm looking to take a long into the PWH once H4 & M15 price action validate this HTF Narrative.
Es_1!
ES SP500 LONGThursdays Daily candle displaced and closed strongly above Wednesdays high and the fractal swing high from last week.
DOL is the PDH.
I want to see H1 bullish arrays respected to then look for M5 bullish displacement entry.
NFP volatility tomorrow will surely impact whether or not this idea works out or not.
ES SP500 ShortMonday's price action saw ES/SP500 trade above Fridays highs, but failed to displace above Friday's high.
My bias is for price to trade to Monday's low.
I am looking for H1/H4 bearish levels to be respected, and will then look for m5/m15 entry once I see premium bearish arrays are being respected.
#ES_F Levels of resistance going into Q2 closeAnother ugly quarter so far with US Equities officially going into a bear market, an abundance of bearish sentiment, and talks of recession.
Price is king and with the nice downward channel it looks like we may get a relief rally this week (possibly into next as well) given :
- Reversion to the mean with price now well beneath the 30 day moving average
- RSI near oversold on the daily
- Bottom MACD curl
- Quarter end window dressing
- Opex behind us
Until the regime changes it's a STFR (short the .. rip) trading plan . I'm trading around a core Bear Risk Reversal position with DEC opex in solid names and some China (mostly green with some slightly underwater after last week). Hedged with JUL QQQ put debit spread in case we open this week with a nasty leg down although R/R favors near term upside IMO.
Resistance levels charted but my eyes will focused on how price reacts at the 3925 zone (obviously assuming we get there) as I will take some long profit and start legging into shorts here.
Stay Liquid Friends
Cheers
$SPY respecting the support line so far!Respecting the downward channel support line so far. Started taking profits on some hedges and adding to longs. Break above 403 and will add more risk long. Sold puts this morning as downside may be capped for now but that doesn't mean we necessarily rip up .
Tough market to trade that's for sure !
ES_F: Daily Range Set - Tune in for This Weeks Levels!Defined range between 4450 - 4537 until proven otherwise. Try to stay away from buying 4480-4484 as that will be tough to find the direction. STAY VIGILANT TAKE PROFITS!
E-mini Defined Range Until Proven OtherwiseAs we spoke about last week, ES_F between 4273 and 4330 is our defined range until it isn't. There will be noise in-between, but until we get a daily close below or above those two areas it should be a very healthy area to long/short and make a lot of money with an elevated VIX.
We think we go revisit last weeks lows early in the week, only to bounce again. Once we breakout of 4330 and hold above on a daily close we should head back to 4700.
$ES Bear Flag or Accumulation - to be continuedInteresting time in the market - people calling a crash, people calling a melt up then crash etc.
Why try and predict ? As a trader your job is to react - level by level , price by price. Let price action determine next outcome.
Nice "Bear Flag" or "Accumulation pattern" ; you can trade the box or wait for a breakout higher / lower .
If you watched today you saw the fighting going on at SPY 430 , that's because these are important levels for the bulls. Similarly saw hard rejection at 441 zone , as these are important levels for the Bears.
React to what the price gives you and trade it. Quit trying to predict the direction solely on what Twitter or someone is saying. Easy way to burn your account.
Level by Level follow price action and react !
Good Luck !
ES: Bearish retest of breakdown then what? Looking for a bearish retest of the breakdown area of 4480, and then see if they chop into another leg up, or right back down on AAPL TSLA MSFT earnings. Take your profits when they are there this week.
Range Bound & Looking for a Local TopES flagging and creating a 30 point range. Take trades when you have them. A break and hold of 4800 should open up 4820 and possible 4840. Below 4770 is 4740 and a daily close under 4770 should get us to go retest that 4712 area which s/r flipped and hasn't been tested. Clean 100 point range to trade in.
$ES_F Squeeze OnBreakout here.. Possible squeeze to 4430 before it gets interesting.
PLAN : Anticipate a move to 4430 then close out longs. Wait for break of 4470 to reenter.
If rejection occurs go short. A direct move down to 4330 , close out longs and go short if this level breaks.
S&P 500 on its way to new ATHFor continued positive momentum, should hold 4208 overnight or at most 4190. Close below 4180 could mean deeper pullback till trend line support. Overhead trend line is possible resistance on its way to 4300 (target/resistance) there.
S&P 500 bulls under pressure Just like Nasdaq, bulls of S&P 500 are also under pressure. It rejected 4185 first and then unable to close above 4169 level. Now must hold 4129 level. Close below 4113 red flag. Trend line last line for bulls to defend. Then upside target still 4221. This week may decide direction for S&P 500. A cautious bullish bias.
Nearterm outlook on $SPX $SPX $ES_FConsidering the Thursday/Friday price action as an impulse wave to the downside
