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12/18 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Trend with Cautious Watch The market continues its upward trajectory, indicated by 8 consecutive green days, but now faces a critical juncture just under major resistance. While the bullish trend is dominant, traders should be vigilant for any trend reversals. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Tesla's Wage Increase: Impacts on union interest at the Nevada Gigafactory. North Korea's ICBM Launch: Escalating geopolitical tensions. Market Reactions: Mixed signals with rising Treasury yields and fluctuating European and Asian markets. Venezuela-Guyana Territorial Dispute: Agreement to resolve peacefully. China's Economic Challenges: Deflation risks highlighted by falling pork prices. Crypto Political Influence: Super PAC's significant funding for the 2024 elections. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: New EU sanctions amidst Putin's re-election plans. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4788-90, 4781, 4772, 4766, 4763, 4753, 4744, 4730-34, 4726, 4719, 4708, 4698-4700, 4692, 4684, 4673, 4663-66, 4654, 4648, 4634, 4630, 4618-20. Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4796, 4806, 4810-12, 4817, 4825-27, 4838, 4848, 4860, 4873, 4883, 4900, 4906, 4910, 4923-25, 4932, 4945, 4953, 4962, 4976, 4990, 5002. Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Key Levels: 4781, 4772. Strategy: Maintain the breakout, targeting 4808-10. Risks: Be cautious after 8 green days, the trend could shift. Bear Case Analysis: Target Short Entry: If 4773 fails, consider shorts with caution. Profit Targets: Watch for potential dips towards 4708. Strategy: Discipline in profit-taking is key, watch for market traps. Tomorrow’s Outlook: Discipline and Strategy: Monitor 4781 and 4773 supports closely. The market remains bullish, but a shift is possible at any moment. Monitor support and resistance levels diligently and adjust strategies as needed. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/17 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Monday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish The market has been on a steady upward trend, with the March ES contract rolling from December front month to March. The key support and resistance levels have been identified, focusing on the 4756-58 to 4786 range. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The discovery of a large tunnel near the Gaza border by Israel has sparked concerns about the adequacy of its prewar intelligence. In the U.S., the Biden campaign has sharply criticized Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric, comparing it to Adolf Hitler. Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair has cautioned against irrational market optimism despite expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. As inflation shows signs of decline, there's skepticism about whether corporate America will lower prices. Meanwhile, stock futures remain stable following a seven-week rally in major market averages. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4770-72, 4766, 4756-58, 4750, 4743, 4731-34, 4724, 4719, 4704-08, 4699, 4692, 4687, 4683, 4678, 4674, 4764-66, 4660, 4654, 4647, 4644. Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4776, 4781-83, 4786, 4794, 4808-10, 4817, 4826, 4838, 4848, 4860, 4871, 4877, 4883, 4900-05, 4920, 4925, 4933, 4945, 4953, 4963, 4975, 4985-90, 5002. Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis Recent Trend: The S&P 500 futures (ES) maintain a bullish momentum with 7 consecutive green weeks. Premise: Expecting further uptrend, consolidating within the 4756-4786 range. Key Zone: 4756-58, critical for bulls. Watch for consolidation and potential breakout towards 4808-10. Strategy: Bulls anticipate a continuation pattern within this range, eyeing a push to higher resistance levels. Risk Factors: Key risk includes a breakdown below 4756, leading to potential backtest towards lower supports. Bear Case Analysis Premise: Potential for a downturn if key support at 4756 is breached. Target Short Entry: Around 4752 post-breakdown of 4756. Profit Targets: Aim for 4740-43 and lower if the breakdown occurs. Strategy: High-risk/reward breakdown trades; caution advised due to their challenging nature. Execution: Avoid impulsive trades; focus on clear setups and key levels. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/14 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Stay light on OPEX day due to the potential for choppy trading. Look for a potential base building in the 4756-83 range for a potential leg up to the 4804-08 zone. If 4756 fails, prepare for a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a lot 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Mixed 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Markets rally strongly on FOMC Dot Plot forecasting 3 rates cuts totaling up to 0.9% in 2024. European Central Bank and the Bank of England each hold rates steady this morning. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4772, 4756, 4740-43, 4710-05, 4660-65 Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4780-83, 4804-08, 4845, 4860-63 Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis Scenario Overview: Recent Trend: ES (S&P 500 futures) has experienced a strong bullish trend, marked by six consecutive green days. Bull Case Premise: Continuation of the uptrend through pattern formation and support maintenance. Key Levels and Patterns: Support Zone: 4756, pivotal for bulls to maintain control. Target Range: 4756-4783, seen as a potential consolidation area. Upside Objective: A move towards the 4804-08 zone, acting as a magnet level. Strategy and Risks: Pattern Building: Bulls expect ES to form a continuation pattern within the target range, setting the stage for another leg up. Risk of Breakdown: Failure to hold 4756 increases the risk of a backtest towards the 4710-05 area. Execution Caution: Traders should be wary of false breakouts and maintain strict risk management. Bear Case Analysis Scenario Overview: Bear Case Premise: A break below key support leading to a downward move. Key Levels and Patterns: Critical Support: 4756, the level below which breakdown trades become viable. Target Short Entry: Around 4752, following a failed bounce at 4756. Profit Targets: First target at 4740-43, capturing the move below the day's low. Strategy and Risks: Breakdown Trades: These are high risk/reward but have a low success rate (60% expected to fail). Execution Skill: Requires skill to execute successfully; not advisable for traders uncomfortable with these odds. Rule of Thumb: Avoid chasing the price; wait for a clear trade setup and reaction at the key level. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/13 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed, China down a lot 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts COP28 deal calls for the tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030 and the eventual phase-out of fossil fuels. Today’s quarterly FOMC Economic Projections will contain an updated Dot Plot showing projects for the future of the Fed Funds Rate. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4758-60, 4734, 4710 Minor: 4743, 4720, 4701 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4772, 4780-85, 4808 Minor: 4793, 4812, 4820 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: For bullish scenarios, holding above major supports such as 4758-60 and then pushing towards levels like 4772. Bearish Scenario: For bearish scenarios, a focus on support failures, particularly at 4710-12, would signal a potential trend change and warrant a shift towards short positions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/12 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Very near unchanged after declining 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a lot 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down slightly but well off the lows 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts CPI inflation prints very slightly hotter m/m, inline with expectations. COP28 hits roadblock over fossil fuels phaseout language. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 🔍 Key Resistance Levels: 4755: Long-term target 4685-4697: (current) 🔍 Key Support Levels: 4630-4635: (current) 4573 & 4580: Significant resistance-turned-support zone. 4556-4558: Indicating a choppy trading range. 4540-4542: Acting as support post-breakout. 4514 & 4497: Important back-testing zones. 4450: Immediate backtest point previous post-CPI announcement. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4668, 4635-4630, 4593-4596, 4565-4560 Minor: 4661, 4655, 4647, 4642, 4617-4620, 4606, 4585, 4576, 4547, 4534, 4524, 4511-4513, 4504, 4485, 4475, 4466, 4458, 4449, 4433, 4426, 4410-4415, 4405, 4392, 4386, 4377, 4366, 4353, 4342, 4331, 4320, 4310 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4685-4697, 4710-4713, 4723, 4734, 4743, 4753-4756, 4768, 4775, 4788, 4794, 4805-4810, 4816, 4826, 4838, 4860, 4869, 4885 Minor: 4673, 4697, 4718, 4734, 4743, 4768, 4775, 4788, 4794, 4816, 4826 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Watch key support at 4668 and 4635-4630 for potential entry points on a reclaim. Bearish Scenario: Resistance at 4685 could offer short opportunities if it fails to break, but with the trend being bullish, counter-trend trades are not preferred. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
12/11 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Both the 4-hour and daily data indicate a bullish sentiment for the S&P 500 Index Futures, with closing prices consistently above the 9, 21, and 55 EMAs. 🔄 Market Recap Last Thursday's rally from 4556 to 4590 occurred on a textbook failed breakdown. This was followed by another squeeze after the NFP release last Friday, due to yet another failed breakdown. The market exhibited a strong performance with closing prices maintaining above key EMA levels, indicating sustained bullish momentum. This trend was consistent across both the daily and 4-hour charts. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up, Japan down a lot 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Japanese stocks continue their steep decline fall, the Yen continues to rally as traders expect the Bank of Japan will exit it’s longtime negative rate policy this month. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Closest Support and Resistance: Support at 4580, resistance at 4632. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Closest Support and Resistance: Support at 4580, resistance at 4642. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 🔍 Key Resistance Levels: 4755: Long-term target, significant in current market context. 4680-4685: Crucial for validating bullish trend strength. 4658: First major breakout zone. 4642-4645: Key current market zone. 4620-4625: Potential for breach due to significant basing. 🔍 Key Support Levels: 4573 & 4580: Significant resistance-turned-support zone. 4556-4558: Indicating a choppy trading range. 4540-4542: Acting as support post breakout. 4514 & 4497: Important back-testing zones. 4450: Immediate backtest point post-CPI announcement. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4556, 4539-42, 4520, 4496, 4463, 4450, 4431, 4408, 4389 Minor: 4548, 4530, 4524, 4512, 4507, 4485, 4475, 4443, 4436, 4418, 4414, 4399 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4573, 4580, 4590-93, 4618-22, 4640-42, 4657, 4680-84, 4711, 4727, 4747, 4755 Minor: 4565, 4597, 4609, 4633, 4648, 4666, 4693, 4704, 4722, 4739-41 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Sustaining above key supports and breaching resistances, particularly at 4620-4625 and 4658, suggests a continuation of the bullish trend. Bearish Scenario: A reversal below key supports, notably below 4556, could signify a shift to bearish sentiment. 💡 Wrap Up In conclusion, last week was good for the market with a bullish trend. However, some hangover is likely today, and the market will most likely be waiting for CPI and FOMC releases to commit to further moves. As long as 4647-4540 holds on dips, the market can continue the path higher to 4660, 4667, and 4685 target. If 4640 fails, we test 4624, potentially leading to a sell-off. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
3
12/8 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish The current market sentiment is bullish, as indicated by various key factors. The closing prices are consistently above the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for 9, 21, and 55 periods in both the 4-hour and daily datasets, highlighting a positive trend. Additionally, the market is maintaining levels above key support zones while approaching significant resistance levels. This bullish sentiment is further supported by global market trends, with most markets showing upward movement, robust crude oil prices, and strong yield performances. 🔄 Market Recap November proved to be a bullish month, with the ES rallying over 450 points, demonstrating remarkable resilience. However, since November 20th, ES has been in a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range of 4550-56 to 4575-80. Despite repeated tests of this range, a definitive breakout has yet to materialize. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up, Japan down a lot 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Japanese stocks continue their steep decline fall, the Yen continues to rally as traders expect the Bank of Japan will exit it’s longtime negative rate policy this month. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis EMA 9, 21, 55: Similar to the 4-hour data, the daily data also shows a bullish sentiment with closing prices above the EMAs. Closest Support and Resistance: The closest support level is at 4580, similar to the 4-hour data, and the closest resistance level is at 4632. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis EMA 9, 21, 55: All are indicating a bullish sentiment as the closing prices are above these EMAs. Closest Support and Resistance: The closest support level is at 4580, and the closest resistance level is at 4642. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 🔍 Key Resistance Levels 4755: A significant long-term target connecting August 2022 and July 2023 highs. It's a major magnet/target in the current market context. 4680-4685: Represents a re-test or slight overthrow of the August highs. It's crucial for validating the strength of the bullish trend. 4658: A critical resistance level that was tested on June 20th and July 25th, 2023. Previous failures to sustainably clear this zone led to a correction, making it the first major breakout zone above 4620-4625. 4642-4645: A key zone in the current market structure. 4620-4625: This represents the upper green dotted line in the chart, connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. This level was a target for some time and is now more likely to be breached due to significant basing. 🔍 Key Support Levels 4573 (and 4580): This zone capped rallies in the last week and a half, with multiple failed attempts to clear it. It's seen as a significant 2-week resistance cluster now turned into support. 4556-4558: A key zone tested multiple times (32 times in the last week), indicating a range of choppy trading between 4556 and 4580. 4540-4542: A multi-month level, it was key resistance in June and July 2023, and following a breakout, it has been acting as support. 4514: An important zone from mid-November. 4497: Serves as major support, back-testing the channel resistance dating back to highs of December 2022 and February 2023. 4450: The immediate backtest point of the line after the CPI announcement on November 14th. 📉 Support Levels 4556 (major), 4548, 4539-42 (major), 4530, 4524, 4520 (major), 4512, 4507, 4496 (major), 4485, 4475, 4463 (major), 4450 (major), 4443, 4436, 4431 (major), 4418, 4414, 4408 (major), 4399, 4389 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4565, 4573 (major), 4580 (major), 4590-93 (major), 4597, 4609, 4618-22 (major), 4633, 4640-42 (major), 4648, 4657 (major), 4666, 4680-84 (major), 4693, 4704, 4711 (major), 4722, 4727 (major), 4739-41, 4747, 4755 (major) 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: If the market sustains above key support levels and breaches resistance levels, especially 4620-4625 and 4658, the bullish breakout trend may continue. Bearish Scenario: A reversal below key supports, particularly below 4556, could indicate weakening of the bullish sentiment, leading to a potential bearish shift. 💡 Wrap Up The market is showing bullish sentiment, but vigilance is key. Monitor resistance and support levels for changes in market dynamics. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/7 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral The immediate market conditions lack a strong bullish drive, thus leaning towards neutrality in the short term. 🔄 Market Recap November proved to be a bullish month, with the ES rallying over 450 points, demonstrating remarkable resilience. However, since November 20th, ES has been in a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range of 4550-56 to 4575-80. Despite repeated tests of this range, a definitive breakout has yet to materialize. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Mixed 🌏 Major Global Catalysts A ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking one lane of the two-lane section and reducing transits by more than 50%. It’s since been cleared but the situation highlights ongoing difficulties in global shipping. 🔍 Key Structures 4755: A long-term target, connecting the August 2022 and July 2023 highs. 4680: Represents a re-test of the August highs. 4658: Crucial resistance encountered in mid-2023. 4639-42: A pivotal zone. 4618-22: The green dotted line on the chart, marks a significant trendline. 4573 (with 4580 just above): A two-week resistance cluster. 4556: A repeatedly tested support level. 4539-42: A notable horizontal zone, acting as a key resistance in mid-2023. 4520: A significant level from mid-November. 4497: A channel resistance tracing back to late 2022. 4450: The immediate backtest point post-CPI announcement in November. 4430: The bull market trendline from late 2022 to early 2023. 📉 Support Levels 4556 (major), 4548, 4539-42 (major), 4530, 4524, 4520 (major), 4512, 4507, 4496 (major), 4485, 4475, 4463 (major), 4450 (major), 4443, 4436, 4431 (major), 4418, 4414, 4408 (major), 4399, 4389 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4565, 4573 (major), 4580 (major), 4590-93 (major), 4597, 4609, 4618-22 (major), 4633, 4640-42 (major), 4648, 4657 (major), 4666, 4680-84 (major), 4693, 4704, 4711 (major), 4722, 4727 (major), 4739-41, 4747, 4755 (major) 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Maintain a long position as long as the 4556 support holds. Key supports at 4556 and 4539-42 safeguarding the upward trajectory. Bearish Scenario: Prepare for a bearish shift if support at 4556 or 4542 fails. This scenario would involve breakdown trades below these support levels, with a high risk-reward ratio and the potential for substantial sell-offs. 💡 Wrap Up As long as the support levels at 4556 (with the lowest being 4542-39) are maintained, there's potential for the ES to continue operating within its current range and possibly revisit levels like 4573, 4580, then dip to 4590, followed by another dip, before potentially approaching the vicinity of 4620. If the 4542 level fails, we might see the ES embarking on a downward trajectory, moving from one level to the next. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
12/5 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral We remain in consolidation, holding between 4550-55 support and 4575-80 resistance. 🔄 Recap After rallying 460 points from October 27th to November 22nd, ES has been stuck in consolidation for two weeks. The market has been largely stuck between 4550-55 support, and 4575-80 resistance, making the round trip countless times. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Near unchanged 🌏 Major Global Catalysts CEOs from the eight largest US banks will testify before the Senate Banking Committee today, voicing their opposition to a rule that would increase capital requirements by 20%-25%. 🔍 Key Structures 4755: A far off target for those with a big picture view 4680: A re-test of the August highs 4658: Important resistance on June 20th and July 25th 2023 4640: A key zone 4618: Green-dotted line in the chart 4573 (with 4580 just a little above): A 2 week resistance cluster 4556: A key zone, tested 25+ times in the last week 4542: A multi-month level, it's been support since Nov 20th 4520: A key zone from Nov 15th-20th 4497: Important channel resistance dating way back to December 2022s and February 2023s highs 4450: Immediate backtest point of the line we lifted off after CPI on Tuesday November 14th 4430: The rising bull market trendline connecting the October 2022 and March 2023 lows 📉 Support Levels 4563, 4556, 4548, 4542, 4540, 4531, 4520, 4513, 4507, 4497, 4484, 4470, 4462, 4450, 4444, 4436, 4430, 4424, 4418, 4413, 4408 📈 Resistance Levels 4573, 4580, 4587, 4590, 4600, 4609, 4618, 4622, 4633, 4640, 4646, 4658, 4666, 4675, 4680, 4693, 4702, 4710, 4720, 4724, 4729, 4737, 4746, 4755 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: The plan is to remain long as long as 4556 keeps holding. Bearish Scenario: If 4542 fails, we should see a short-term bearish trend takeover. 💡 Wrap Up The market remains in consolidation, with a bullish structure. The focus is on trading the consolidations, with optionality to be exposed during the trend. The plan is to remain long as long as 4556 keeps holding, with a focus on failed breakouts/breakdowns. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
12/5 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish The S&P 500 Index Futures have been hovering in a choppy zone between 4550-4580, presenting a challenging environment with limited predictability. Despite the uncertainty, the overall trend remains slightly bullish, contingent on the key support level of 4555 holding firm. It's imperative for traders to acknowledge the inherent risks in trading, as no strategy is foolproof. 🔄 Recap Navigating the current market conditions requires a flexible and tactical approach, focusing on trading from one significant level to the next. The previous week concluded with a notable surge on Friday, characterized by a failed breakdown and the formation of a bull flag. Contrastingly, today's session was predominantly characterized by short trading opportunities. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a lot 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Moody’s cuts China credit outlook to negative on growing debt risks US foreign policy funding in doubt. 🔍 Key Structures 4755, 4658-66, 4635, 4618, 4573, 4556, 4542-45, 4520-25, 4494-96, 4448, and 4424-26. 📉 Support Levels 4573, 4568, 4564, 4556-58, 4549, 4542-45, 4535, 4531, 4525, 4520, 4511, 4507, 4495-96, 4484, 4472, 4462, 4452, 4447, 4436, and 4425-30 📈 Resistance Levels 4580, 4590, 4597, 4601, 4609, 4618, 4623, 4632, 4636, 4642, 4647, 4658, 4666, 4680, 4692, 4700, 4706, 4720, 4725, 4736, 4744, and 4753 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Bulls should focus on maintaining the 4556-58 and 4542 support levels to sustain upward momentum. Potential additions in bullish conditions could be considered within a bull flag formation, particularly between 4573-68 and below 4580. Bearish Scenario: For bearish traders, actionable opportunities arise only if support levels fail. Trades below these supports should be approached with caution and skill. 💡 Wrap Up The trend continues to lean towards bullishness. As long as the 4555 level is sustained, the market has the potential to consolidate within this range and possibly advance towards 4618. However, a breakdown below 4542 could trigger selling pressure into bearish territory. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
2
12/4 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish As December unfolds, the market sentiment leans towards a neutral to slightly bearish outlook. This cautious stance reflects the global financial landscape's current dynamics and the anticipation of key economic events. 🔄 Recap November stood out as the most bullish month of the year, showcasing a significant rally of +470 points. This aligns with its historical trend as one of the strongest months over the past five decades. However, December starts with a mixed sentiment, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Large caps down, small caps up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The Supreme Court's engagement with the tax code marks a notable event. This, combined with the seasonal strength of November and early December trends, sets a complex backdrop for current market movements. 🔍 Key Structures The key structures to watch out for are 4755, 4658-60, 4630-35, 4618, 4573-75, 4550-52, 4542, 4520, 4494-96, 4445-47, and 4424. 📉 Support Levels Support levels to watch out for are 4597, 4587-90, 4580, 4575, 4568, 4561, 4556, 4551, 4542, 4532, 4525, 4520, 4514, 4510, 4502, 4494-96, 4484, 4473, 4457, 4445-48, 4436, 4430, 4424, 4418, 4409, 4399, 4388, 4375-80.. 📈 Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch out for are 4609, 4618, 4625, 4630-35, 4642, 4647, 4658-60, 4666, 4676, 4680, 4698, 4703-06, 4715, 4721, 4733, 4742, and 4753. 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Continuation of the uptrend if the 4575-80 support holds. Key targets include 4590, 4607-09, and 4620. Bearish Scenario: Watch for a breakdown below 4575, which could indicate a shift to a bearish trend. Focus on short positions below major resistance levels. 💡 Wrap Up The market is currently in a bullish trend, with the price breaking out of the consolidation range. The key to profiting from this trend is to not chase moves and instead trade alongside the institutions after the traps. This requires careful management of trades and a focus on failed breakdowns and breakouts. Today's key is to observe the market and wait for price discovery. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
12/1 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment Neutral to Short-Term Bearish: Entering December, market sentiment is mixed with a cautious outlook. Traders are closely watching Jay Powell's speeches for potential market-moving insights. After a record-breaking November, markets are consolidating, suggesting a period of uncertainty. 🔄 Recap November concluded with a mix of bullish runs and consolidation phases. The S&P 500 Index Futures were dominated by a tight consolidation range between 4555-4575, with 4555 emerging as a crucial support level. The market ended November with a late-day squeeze but spent the majority of the session in choppy trading. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Unchanged 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down a bit 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global CatalystsAnticipating Jay Powell speeches today 🔍 Key Structures 4658: A significant resistance level from mid-2023. 4620-22: A pivotal trendline connecting key market highs. 4573-75: A recent resistance zone. 4555-50: A heavily tested support level, crucial for market direction. 4533-36: A key support, previously a resistance. 4510-14, 4493-96, 4447-50, 4424: Additional support levels to monitor. 📉 Support Levels 4550-52 (major) 4561, 4568 4533-36 (major) 4520, 4525 4510-14 (major) 4506 4493-96 (major) 4472, 4479 4447-50 (major) 4420-24 (major), 4418 4399, 4405 (major), 4375-77 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4572-75 (major) 4580 (major), 4590-92 4597 4607-09 (major) 4620-22 (major) 4631-33 (major), 4643 4648, 4657 (major) 4666, 4672, 4683 4693, 4701 (major), 4710 (major) 4720, 4731 (major), 4742, 4752 (major) 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: As long as the 4550-55 support holds, a continuation of the uptrend is likely. Breaking above 4575 could signal further upward movement, with targets at 4590, 4607-09, and 4620. Bearish Scenario: A break below 4550 could indicate a shift to a bearish trend, with potential short positions at major resistance levels. Watch for 4550 and 4533-36 as critical points for breakdowns. 💡 Wrap Up The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with 4550-4575 as the dominant range. Traders should watch for a breakout or breakdown from this range for directional clues. As always, maintaining discipline and focusing on key levels is essential for successful trading. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
11/29 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment Neutral to Short-Term Bearish: Today's market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with global markets showing modest gains. The anticipation of the COP28 Climate Change Conference in Dubai is influencing global sentiment, and the US Index Futures are trending upwards. Notably, crude oil is experiencing a strong surge. 🔄 Recap The S&P 500 Index Futures experienced a volatile day, initially surging to a high of 4597, then retracted to the 4555 level. This fluctuation indicates an ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish forces in the market. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up a bit 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Mixed 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The COP28 Climate Change Conference is commencing in Dubai, potentially influencing energy and environmental sector stocks. 🔍 Key Structures 4618: A critical upper trendline connecting key historical highs. 4573-75: A pivotal resistance zone that has capped recent rallies. 4555: Strong support level, consistently tested over the past week. 4534-36: Key support zone, previously a significant resistance. 4508, 4489-93, 4446, 4418: Other notable support levels to watch. 📉 Support Levels 4556 (major) 4547, 4542 4534-36 (major) 4525, 4514 4508 (major) 4489-93 (major) 4484, 4473 (major) 4462, 4452, 4445 (major) 4437, 4430, 4424, 4418 (major) 4410, 4399, 4375-80 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4563, 4573-75 (major) 4580, 4588-90, 4597 4609 (major), 4618 (major) 4622, 4628-31 (major) 4642, 4648 (major), 4658 (major) 4668-70, 4681, 4692, 4700-05 (major) 4716, 4720, 4731 (major), 4741, 4754 (major) 📝 Trading Plan For Bulls: Focus on the 4556 and 4534-36 support levels. A rebound from these levels could indicate bullish momentum, offering opportunities to enter long positions. For Bears: Watch for a breakdown below 4556. A sustained move below this level could signal bearish momentum, with potential short opportunities at major resistance levels. 💡 Wrap Up With mixed signals and a failed breakout, today's market presents a challenging environment. Traders should adopt a cautious approach, focusing on key support and resistance levels for guidance. As always, maintaining a disciplined risk management strategy is crucial. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
2
11/28 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment Neutral to Short-Term Bearish: Current indicators suggest a cautious approach, with a lean towards a short-term bearish outlook amid mixed global signals. 🔄 Recap In today’s issue, we delve into the performance of S&P 500 Futures, analyzing the recent consolidation phase after a notable rally. We examine the tight trading range that has defined the market over the past week, emphasizing caution in these choppy conditions. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Hawkish Fed Governor Waller turns dovish saying rates are in the right place. European CPI inflation reports coming in lower than expected. 🔍 Key Structures We've identified crucial structures ranging from 4620-25 as a broad upside target, down to 4418, a pivotal bull market trendline. The ES is currently consolidating under 4580, indicating a potential move on the horizon. 📉 Support Levels 4536: A prominent horizontal zone, critical for maintaining the current bullish structure. 4508: A support level that played a significant role in sustaining the rally after the November CPI release. 4485: A pivotal support-turned-resistance that could be retested. 4445-37: Key support zones that could act as a staging ground for future rallies. 📈 Resistance Levels 4620-25: A major trendline target, marking the intersection of historical highs. 4580: A strong resistance level that has been tested and held thus far. 4565: An immediate resistance that could dictate short-term price action. 📝 Trading Plan For Wednesday’s session, we focus on key support and resistance levels. The plan includes monitoring for base building above 4555 for a possible move to 4580+ while also considering short positions on breakdowns below key support levels. 💡 Wrap Up The market remains in a tight balance, with a persistent bullish undertone. It’s crucial to navigate this choppy phase with a disciplined trading plan, recognizing the potential for both upward continuation and downward reversal. Stay tuned for updates on major catalysts that may impact the market dynamics. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
11/27 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Recap Today's newsletter provides a comprehensive look at the current market situation, emphasizing the S&P 500 Futures and the essential strategies for upcoming trading sessions. 📈 The Markets Overnight Asia: Mixed Europe: Down a bit US Index Futures: Down slightly Crude Oil: Up a bit Dollar: Down slightly Yields: Up slightly Crypto: Up slightly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Saudi Arabia is actively seeking allies for a production cut before the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Thursday. 🔍 Key Structures A significant breakout from a 4-month downtrend channel occurred on November 14th, influenced by CPI data. This bullish setup has sustained its momentum, with minor sell-offs being quickly absorbed. The S&P 500 Futures are currently consolidating under 4580, hinting at a potential upcoming move. 📉 Support Levels 4536-42: Crucial zone, acting as a major support. 4507: Notable support from mid-November. 4491-95: Key level from September's downturn. 4445, 4436-32: Secondary support zones. 4385: Represents the lower bound of a potential pullback. 📈 Resistance Levels 4620-22: Ultimate target, connecting historical highs. 4580: Recent resistance, tested last Wednesday. 4565: Immediate resistance zone. 📝 Trading Plan Remain alert for support levels, especially around 4555 and 4535, to hold for continuing the bullish trend. Key resistances at 4580 and above may offer opportunities for adding strength. Watch for breakdowns below 4535 as a sign of a potential trend reversal. 💡 Wrap Up The current market condition is a blend of strong bullish trends and consolidation phases. It's vital to stay aware of major support and resistance levels and adapt strategies accordingly. The market remains in a delicate balance, with potential for both continuation and reversal of the current trend. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
11/25 Trading Plan - Friday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap In the past month, the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES) has demonstrated an unusual bullish trend, closing four consecutive green weeks. Notably, after breaking out of a downtrend channel on November 14th at 4425, the market has largely maintained an upward trajectory. This breakout signifies a classic technical analysis pattern typically seen in 4-month downtrend reversals. 🔍 Key Structures 4620: Represents a significant trendline connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 most recent high. 4577-80: A major resistance level encountered back in late August/early September. 4536-42: A critical horizontal zone that served as key resistance during the summer of 2023. Other Notable Levels: 4507, 4488-90, 4445, 4436-32, 4408-11, and 4390. 📉 Support Levels The primary support levels to monitor include 4507, 4488-90, 4445, 4436-32, and the critical 4408-11 zone. These levels have historically played a significant role in the market's movement and will be crucial in determining future trends. 📈 Resistance Levels Key resistance levels to watch are 4577-80, the upper zone of 4536-42, and the overarching 4620 level. These levels have previously acted as barriers to upward movement and will be critical in assessing the potential for continued bullish momentum. 📝 Trading Plan Supports to Monitor: 4554, 4549, 4542, 4535, and other major supports down to 4408-11. Resistances for Potential Reversal: 4565, 4572, 4580, and upwards to 4620. Bull Case Scenario: Maintaining above 4542-36 on dips to continue the bullish trend. Bear Case Scenario: A breakdown below 4536-42 could signal a short-term bearish shift. 🔚 Wrap Up As the market transitions from the Thanksgiving holiday, traders should be prepared for potential volatility and abrupt changes in direction. The emphasis should remain on trading within pre-planned, high-conviction zones and reacting to market shifts rather than predicting them. The approach for Monday hinges on the market's ability to sustain support levels, particularly around 4542-36, to continue the upward trend or signal a bearish reversal if these levels fail. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/22 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap The S&P 500 futures (ES) are continuing the seasonally bullish trend of Thanksgiving week. Recently, ES exhibited a bullish triangle pattern around the 4536 resistance, leading to a breakout that aligns with our analysis from the last newsletter. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a bit 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Trending Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down significantly 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Four-day ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Drama ahead of the OPEC meeting after a sudden reversal of its cancellation. Decrease in Thanksgiving dinner costs by 4.5% from last year. 🔍 Key Structures 4622: Core trendline connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. 4577-80: A major resistance level observed in late August. 4543-35: A critical resistance level, now the most important zone to hold. 4521-18: A vital support level that has been crucial in the recent rally. 4488: An important zone for back-testing as the first major support down. 4445-47: A key back-test support level post-CPI day breakout. 📉 Support Levels Major Supports: 4556-58, 4542, 4536-38, 4521, 4488, 4446-48, 4400-4405. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistances: 4577-80, 4607-09, 4623, 4658. 📝 Trading Plan Short-Term Focus: Watch 4536-38 for potential bearish indications. Long-Term Strategy: Bulls remain in control; maintain focus on key supports for signs of sustained upward movement. 🔚 Wrap Up As we get closer to Thanksgiving, market strength is typical, yet vigilance is essential. Despite predominantly green indicators this month, cautious trading is advised due to potential shifts during the holiday week and overhead supply considerations. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/21 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap Todays price action highlighted the power of technical analysis, with ES breaking out of a 4-month downtrend post-CPI, rallying 120 points. The market formed a bullish triangle pattern last week, which led to a breakout and an upward trajectory today, aligning perfectly with our analysis from the last newsletter. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down slightly 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts FOMC meeting minutes and NVDA earnings later today. 🔍 Key Structures 4622: Core trendline connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. 4577-80: A major resistance level observed in late August. 4543-35: A critical resistance level, now the most important zone to hold. 4521-18: A vital support level that has been crucial in the recent rally. 4488: An important zone for back-testing as the first major support down. 4445-47: A key back-test support level post-CPI day breakout. 📉 Support Levels Major Supports: 4556-58, 4542, 4536-38, 4521, 4488, 4446-48, 4400-4405. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistances: 4577-80, 4607-09, 4623, 4658. 📝 Trading Plan Short-Term Focus: Watch 4536-38 for potential bearish indications. Long-Term Strategy: Bulls remain in control; maintain focus on key supports for signs of sustained upward movement. 🔚 Wrap Up As we approach Thanksgiving, typically strong for the market, we need to stay vigilant for potential shifts. The market's resilience with only one red day this month suggests strong bullish control, but caution is advised due to the holiday trading week and potential overhead supply. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/20 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap Last week's newsletter accurately predicted the market's behavior with the CPI acting as a catalyst for a significant breakout from the core downtrend channel. This led to a substantial uptrend, marking one of the year's pivotal trades. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Mixed near unchanged 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts A significant event in the global market is the victory of the Libertarian candidate in the resource-rich presidential election of Argentina. This could have far-reaching impacts on global trade and market dynamics. 🔍 Key Structures Upper Resistance: 4623, connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. Notable Resistance Zones: 4580, 4556, 4535-43. Significant Supports: 4485-88, 4445, 4405. 📉 Support Levels Major: 3502, 3788, 3839 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4051, 4180, 4209. 📝 Trading Plan Short-Term Focus: Monitor 4514-07 as critical support. A break below could signal a short-term bearish trend. Long-Term Strategy: Maintain focus on the uptrend as long as the market stays above 4405, the core downtrend channel from August. 🔚 Wrap Up The market is showing signs of consolidation after a significant uptrend. Key levels to watch are 4514-07 for potential downward movements and 4535 for resistance. The market remains in a strong uptrend, and any pullbacks should be considered within this context. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/17 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap This week's market activity showcased the transition between trend and consolidation phases. Friday exhibited a strong uptrend, while Monday shifted to a consolidation mode. Notably, the breakout from the downtrend channel and CPI data fueled a significant rally. However, the consolidation session resumed post-rally, raising questions about a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight Asia: Mixed performance. Europe: Strong upward movement. US Index Futures: Mixed strength but generally up. Crude Oil: Price increase. Dollar: Slight decrease. Yields: Marginal decline. Crypto: Mixed trends. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Yesterday, President Biden signed a temporary government spending bill, preventing a government shutdown. This move has implications for market dynamics. 🔍 Key Structures The ES has entered a post-trend consolidation phase, with key structures ranging from 4507-10 to 4543+. The market is currently in "Mode 2," characterized by basing, chop, and pattern formation. The current pattern forms a bull flag with a 60% upside resolution bias. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4507, 4484-86, 4445, 4418-24. Minor: Various levels between 4507 and 4418. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4625, 4556-58, 4543. Minor: Levels ranging up to 4543. 📝 Trading Plan Supports: Focus on 4520, 4514, 4507-10, 4485-87, 4444. Resistances: Watch for 4524, 4535, 4543, 4557. Bull Case: Maintain control above 4507 for an upward trend. Bear Case: A breakdown below 4507 could lead to a short-term dip. Strategy: Emphasis on level-to-level trading within the 4507-4535 range. 🔚 Wrap Up As we approach today's trading session, the focus remains on the 4507-10 support level and the 4535-40 resistance zone. With the market in a consolidation phase, traders should be prepared for choppiness and focus on level-to-level trading strategies. Remember, today is OPEX Friday, so expect pinning around key levels and limited follow-through on movements. Stay informed, trade smart, and let's navigate the markets together. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/16 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap This week's market activity showcased the transition between trend and consolidation phases. Friday exhibited a strong uptrend, while Monday shifted to a consolidation mode. Notably, the breakout from the downtrend channel and CPI data fueled a significant rally. However, the consolidation session resumed post-rally, raising questions about a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The Biden-Xi meeting concluded with a mix of agreements and tensions, impacting global market sentiments. Notably, the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES) showcased remarkable resilience this November, defying the typical seasonal trends. 🔍 Key Structures 4625: Upper green line, connecting January 2022 and August 2022 highs. 4556-59: Channel resistance and notable September area. 4543: A recurrent resistance level in June and July 2023. 4518: Trend line resistance from early to mid-September. 4442-45: Post-CPI rally's critical support level. 4418-25: Breakout point of the downtrend channel from August 2023. 📉 Support Levels 4507-10, 4496, 4484-86, 4476, 4462, 4452, 4442-45, 4430, 4426, 4418, 4413, 4403, 4390, 4385, 4375, 4366, 4353, 4348, 4341, 4333-35. 📈 Resistance Levels 4518, 4525, 4535, 4543, 4549, 4558-60, 4566, 4577, 4580, 4587-90, 4596, 4610, 4625, 4632, 4638-42, 4648, 4658, 4667, 4674, 4687, 4699, 4705, 4722, 4734, 4744. 📝 Trading Plan Thursday's focus is on pivotal support at 4507-10. A break below could initiate a rare red day, while holding this level might extend the bullish trend. Resistance levels to watch include 4543 and 4558-60. Trade management will be strictly algorithmic, focusing on level-to-level execution without emotional bias. 🔚 Wrap Up The market is currently in a post-trend consolidation phase, requiring traders to be adaptable. Key points for Thursday include maintaining support at 4507-10 and watching for potential resistance challenges. The long-term bullish outlook remains as long as the breakout level at 4418-24 holds. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/15 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap In our previous newsletter titled “SPX Is About To Break Out A 4 Month Downtrend”, we anticipated a significant move in the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES). On Monday, ES demonstrated a breakout from its 4-month trendline channel, driven by CPI, resulting in an impressive 100-point surge. This movement aligns with historical trends observed in November 2022. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts President Biden and President Xi are set to meet today at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. Their four-hour discussion will cover bilateral and global issues. The US House has passed a stop-gap spending bill to fund the government until January 19, preventing a government shutdown. The bill is expected to pass in the Senate. 🔍 Key Structures The ES experienced a breakout from its major downtrend channel that originated in August. This breakout is now the primary focus for potential future movements. We observed a bullish “megaphone” pattern formation on Monday, which set the stage for the current surge. 📉 Support Levels 4484: A crucial support zone, previously acting as resistance. 4439-40: A pivotal level, marking the liftoff point for today's CPI-driven movement. 4418-25: The breakout point from the downtrend channel and a significant area for dip buying. 📈 Resistance Levels 4543: A major resistance level, previously encountered in mid-2023. 4517: Trendline resistance connecting recent lows. 4596: Though not identified in our latest analysis, this level remains a key watchpoint for potential resistance. 📝 Trading Plan Continue monitoring key support and resistance levels. Emphasize the importance of holding runners in trading strategies. Focus on level-to-level trading, staying alert for breakout points and channel resistances. 🔚 Wrap Up Today's market movement, especially with CPI as the catalyst, highlights the importance of understanding technical structures like channels and the strategy of holding runners. As we continue to monitor these developments, our approach remains agile, focusing on data-driven insights for informed trading decisions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/14 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap In yesterday's trading, ES finally bumped into resistance after an 80 point monster short squeeze on Friday. The level of resistance was no coincidence, as it was noted last week that we were closing just above the most significant resistance in ES at 4418-25. This level is the core downtrend line from the August high. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Exploding higher 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down a lot 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit Major Global Catalysts CPI inflation prints below expectations. Today is CPI day, which is often one of the most volatile, random, and difficult-to-trade days of the year for ES. Key Structures Key structures to note include 4484, 4418-25, 4400-05, 4385, and 4330-36. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4418-24 (major), 4410, 4400-05 (major), 4386 (major), 4375, 4366 (major), 4360, 4348, 4335 (major), 4326, 4315, 4302, 4290-95 (major), 4279, 4268, 4250-55 (major), 4243, 4233, 4225, 4213 (major). Resistance Levels 4434, 4439 (major), 4445, 4460-63 (major), 4473, 4480-85 (major), 4496, 4507 (major), 4514, 4517 (major), 4525, 4534, 4543 (major), 4550, 4557-60 (major), 4566, 4574 (major), 4581, 4591 (major), 4596, 4610-14 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today depends on the megaphone discussed above holding at 4400-05. The bear case generally begins on the failure of 4400-05. On a normal day, there would be a possible breakdown short here, but on CPI day it is very hard to execute without getting trapped. Wrap Up CPI day, expect traps, and failed breakdowns are your best friend. If you over-trade on these days, you are almost certain to lose. Predictability on CPI days is essentially 0, so I can only provide a lean based purely on the structure. My general lean is the megaphone fills out, then plays out. This would look something like defend 4418-24, 4400 lowest, then test 4439, then higher into 4460-63. Megaphone fails at 4400, it gives bears a chance at a proper pullback finally. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro