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11/20 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap Last week's newsletter accurately predicted the market's behavior with the CPI acting as a catalyst for a significant breakout from the core downtrend channel. This led to a substantial uptrend, marking one of the year's pivotal trades. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Mixed near unchanged 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts A significant event in the global market is the victory of the Libertarian candidate in the resource-rich presidential election of Argentina. This could have far-reaching impacts on global trade and market dynamics. 🔍 Key Structures Upper Resistance: 4623, connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. Notable Resistance Zones: 4580, 4556, 4535-43. Significant Supports: 4485-88, 4445, 4405. 📉 Support Levels Major: 3502, 3788, 3839 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4051, 4180, 4209. 📝 Trading Plan Short-Term Focus: Monitor 4514-07 as critical support. A break below could signal a short-term bearish trend. Long-Term Strategy: Maintain focus on the uptrend as long as the market stays above 4405, the core downtrend channel from August. 🔚 Wrap Up The market is showing signs of consolidation after a significant uptrend. Key levels to watch are 4514-07 for potential downward movements and 4535 for resistance. The market remains in a strong uptrend, and any pullbacks should be considered within this context. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/17 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap This week's market activity showcased the transition between trend and consolidation phases. Friday exhibited a strong uptrend, while Monday shifted to a consolidation mode. Notably, the breakout from the downtrend channel and CPI data fueled a significant rally. However, the consolidation session resumed post-rally, raising questions about a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight Asia: Mixed performance. Europe: Strong upward movement. US Index Futures: Mixed strength but generally up. Crude Oil: Price increase. Dollar: Slight decrease. Yields: Marginal decline. Crypto: Mixed trends. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Yesterday, President Biden signed a temporary government spending bill, preventing a government shutdown. This move has implications for market dynamics. 🔍 Key Structures The ES has entered a post-trend consolidation phase, with key structures ranging from 4507-10 to 4543+. The market is currently in "Mode 2," characterized by basing, chop, and pattern formation. The current pattern forms a bull flag with a 60% upside resolution bias. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4507, 4484-86, 4445, 4418-24. Minor: Various levels between 4507 and 4418. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4625, 4556-58, 4543. Minor: Levels ranging up to 4543. 📝 Trading Plan Supports: Focus on 4520, 4514, 4507-10, 4485-87, 4444. Resistances: Watch for 4524, 4535, 4543, 4557. Bull Case: Maintain control above 4507 for an upward trend. Bear Case: A breakdown below 4507 could lead to a short-term dip. Strategy: Emphasis on level-to-level trading within the 4507-4535 range. 🔚 Wrap Up As we approach today's trading session, the focus remains on the 4507-10 support level and the 4535-40 resistance zone. With the market in a consolidation phase, traders should be prepared for choppiness and focus on level-to-level trading strategies. Remember, today is OPEX Friday, so expect pinning around key levels and limited follow-through on movements. Stay informed, trade smart, and let's navigate the markets together. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/16 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap This week's market activity showcased the transition between trend and consolidation phases. Friday exhibited a strong uptrend, while Monday shifted to a consolidation mode. Notably, the breakout from the downtrend channel and CPI data fueled a significant rally. However, the consolidation session resumed post-rally, raising questions about a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The Biden-Xi meeting concluded with a mix of agreements and tensions, impacting global market sentiments. Notably, the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES) showcased remarkable resilience this November, defying the typical seasonal trends. 🔍 Key Structures 4625: Upper green line, connecting January 2022 and August 2022 highs. 4556-59: Channel resistance and notable September area. 4543: A recurrent resistance level in June and July 2023. 4518: Trend line resistance from early to mid-September. 4442-45: Post-CPI rally's critical support level. 4418-25: Breakout point of the downtrend channel from August 2023. 📉 Support Levels 4507-10, 4496, 4484-86, 4476, 4462, 4452, 4442-45, 4430, 4426, 4418, 4413, 4403, 4390, 4385, 4375, 4366, 4353, 4348, 4341, 4333-35. 📈 Resistance Levels 4518, 4525, 4535, 4543, 4549, 4558-60, 4566, 4577, 4580, 4587-90, 4596, 4610, 4625, 4632, 4638-42, 4648, 4658, 4667, 4674, 4687, 4699, 4705, 4722, 4734, 4744. 📝 Trading Plan Thursday's focus is on pivotal support at 4507-10. A break below could initiate a rare red day, while holding this level might extend the bullish trend. Resistance levels to watch include 4543 and 4558-60. Trade management will be strictly algorithmic, focusing on level-to-level execution without emotional bias. 🔚 Wrap Up The market is currently in a post-trend consolidation phase, requiring traders to be adaptable. Key points for Thursday include maintaining support at 4507-10 and watching for potential resistance challenges. The long-term bullish outlook remains as long as the breakout level at 4418-24 holds. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/15 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap In our previous newsletter titled “SPX Is About To Break Out A 4 Month Downtrend”, we anticipated a significant move in the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES). On Monday, ES demonstrated a breakout from its 4-month trendline channel, driven by CPI, resulting in an impressive 100-point surge. This movement aligns with historical trends observed in November 2022. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts President Biden and President Xi are set to meet today at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. Their four-hour discussion will cover bilateral and global issues. The US House has passed a stop-gap spending bill to fund the government until January 19, preventing a government shutdown. The bill is expected to pass in the Senate. 🔍 Key Structures The ES experienced a breakout from its major downtrend channel that originated in August. This breakout is now the primary focus for potential future movements. We observed a bullish “megaphone” pattern formation on Monday, which set the stage for the current surge. 📉 Support Levels 4484: A crucial support zone, previously acting as resistance. 4439-40: A pivotal level, marking the liftoff point for today's CPI-driven movement. 4418-25: The breakout point from the downtrend channel and a significant area for dip buying. 📈 Resistance Levels 4543: A major resistance level, previously encountered in mid-2023. 4517: Trendline resistance connecting recent lows. 4596: Though not identified in our latest analysis, this level remains a key watchpoint for potential resistance. 📝 Trading Plan Continue monitoring key support and resistance levels. Emphasize the importance of holding runners in trading strategies. Focus on level-to-level trading, staying alert for breakout points and channel resistances. 🔚 Wrap Up Today's market movement, especially with CPI as the catalyst, highlights the importance of understanding technical structures like channels and the strategy of holding runners. As we continue to monitor these developments, our approach remains agile, focusing on data-driven insights for informed trading decisions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/14 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap In yesterday's trading, ES finally bumped into resistance after an 80 point monster short squeeze on Friday. The level of resistance was no coincidence, as it was noted last week that we were closing just above the most significant resistance in ES at 4418-25. This level is the core downtrend line from the August high. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Exploding higher 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down a lot 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit Major Global Catalysts CPI inflation prints below expectations. Today is CPI day, which is often one of the most volatile, random, and difficult-to-trade days of the year for ES. Key Structures Key structures to note include 4484, 4418-25, 4400-05, 4385, and 4330-36. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4418-24 (major), 4410, 4400-05 (major), 4386 (major), 4375, 4366 (major), 4360, 4348, 4335 (major), 4326, 4315, 4302, 4290-95 (major), 4279, 4268, 4250-55 (major), 4243, 4233, 4225, 4213 (major). Resistance Levels 4434, 4439 (major), 4445, 4460-63 (major), 4473, 4480-85 (major), 4496, 4507 (major), 4514, 4517 (major), 4525, 4534, 4543 (major), 4550, 4557-60 (major), 4566, 4574 (major), 4581, 4591 (major), 4596, 4610-14 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today depends on the megaphone discussed above holding at 4400-05. The bear case generally begins on the failure of 4400-05. On a normal day, there would be a possible breakdown short here, but on CPI day it is very hard to execute without getting trapped. Wrap Up CPI day, expect traps, and failed breakdowns are your best friend. If you over-trade on these days, you are almost certain to lose. Predictability on CPI days is essentially 0, so I can only provide a lean based purely on the structure. My general lean is the megaphone fills out, then plays out. This would look something like defend 4418-24, 4400 lowest, then test 4439, then higher into 4460-63. Megaphone fails at 4400, it gives bears a chance at a proper pullback finally. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/13 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week, we saw a major squeeze to the 4418-24 upside target. Triggers for this squeeze were a failed breakdown of the 4377-85 level, which was then backtested and cleared on the second attempt, leading to a rapid squeeze higher. The largest, fastest moves often come from failed breakdowns, and this system is built around exploiting this edge. The RSI provided "fuel" for the squeeze, suggesting substantial energy already available for another rally. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down very slightly 💵 Dollar: Up very slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit Major Global Catalysts Moody’s changed the outlook on US government debt from stable to negative. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit and APEC Economic Leaders’ Week is underway in San Francisco all week. Key Structures The notable structures and levels from highest to lowest include: 4418-25, 4399, 4381-86, 4330-36, and 4302. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. They are not predictive, but will form the basis of level-to-level trading. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4418-25 (major), 4412, 4399 (major), 4394, 4381-86 (major), 4367,4355, 4347 (major), 4331-36 (major), 4326, 4315, 4302 (major), 4290 (major), 4279, 4268, 4255-58 (major). Resistance Levels 4434, 4439, 4445, 4452, 4460-63 (major), 4472, 4480-85 (major), 4497 (major), 4502, 4514 (major), 4525-28, 4534, 4540-43 (major). Trading Plan Today, the plan is to continue holding the long runner from high 4380s and allow for price discovery to unfold. If we begin a dip today, 4418-25 is first support down. If last Friday’s late-day breakout was a trap, we could sell quite hard starting today. If 4385 fails, we will sell deeply. All shorts are high risk knife catches. Wrap Up In summary, after last Friday's monster rally, it's time to step back and let price discovery reveal what is next. As long as 4418-24 holds, we can continue up the levels to 4439, 4445, 4460-63. If 4418-24 fails, we likely need to dip to 4399 at least. We get a proper leg down only when 4381-86 fails. The aim is not to catch every move, but to catch the portion of the daily moves that correspond to your edge and your pre-planned setups. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/12 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap After an incredible eight-day green streak for ES, we saw a shift on Wednesday as the consolidation range finally broke down, triggering shorts. This was the first real pullback since October 27th, marking the first red day after eight green ones. This week's price action has normalized, and we've settled back into more typical price action, with the 85/15 ratio generally holding before an afternoon trend to the downside yesterday. The Markets Overnight “We are not confident we've achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance. If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate.” Jay Powell in a prepared statement for yesterday’s global economy panel discussion. Some US Treasury market settlements were affected by ransomware attacks. Major Global Catalysts 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up Key Structures The core structures/big zones to engage include 4425, 4399, 4376, 4336-26, 4279-83, and 4254-58. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4356, 4347, 4327-35 (major), 4314, 4306-4302 (major), 4290, 4280-83 (major), 4268, 4255-58 (major), 4242 (major), 4231, 4221, 4214 (major). Resistance Levels 4366, 4377 (major), 4386, 4399 (major), 4412, 4418-25 (major), 4430, 4439, 4445, 4452, 4462-65 (major), 4477, 4483 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4525, 4530-33 (major), 4542 (major). Trading Plan The general lean is that we can defend 4377, head down to 4336-27, and then bounce. If 4377 reclaims, that is probably it for this pullback. Any bear case mentioned here is purely short-term. Generally, though, the bear case is in play as long as we are below 4377ish. As long as it is below it/as long as it holds on any backtest, ES likely dips to 4335-27. Wrap Up It's the first red day after eight green days, but bulls remain firmly in control, and the RSI suggests energy for a squeeze with the right trigger. If 4377 reclaims, that is probably it for this pullback. As always, the solution to trading the above action is reactive level-to-level trading. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
SPX Futures: Leading Diagonal into a 1 or A? Downside ahead.The analysis of the S&P 500 futures (ES) presents an intriguing scenario for traders, especially those new to the market. Let's break it down in a way that's easier to understand. Understanding the Market Movements Five-Wave Decline : The ES has seen a decline in a structure that can be described as a 'five-wave' pattern. In market analysis, a five-wave structure often indicates a complete cycle of market movement in one direction. Complex Correction Possibility : Initially, there were indications of a complex correction. A complex correction in market terms refers to a price movement that doesn't follow a straightforward pattern and often involves multiple peaks and troughs. Impulsive Move Upward : Recently, there was a significant and rapid upward movement, known as an impulsive move. This was the largest of its kind in about a year, suggesting a potential change in market sentiment or dynamics. Current Scenario - ABC Correction : Based on the recent price action, it seems we're in an ABC correction phase. This is a common pattern in market analysis where the price movement is divided into three parts - A, B, and C. We seem to be completing the B wave. Wave A: Completed in a leading diagonal pattern. Wave B: Currently in progress. Wave C: Expected next, which might lead to higher price levels temporarily. Future Predictions and Risks Potential Downturn : There's a looming financial crisis and geopolitical tensions, which could turn the current Wave B into a Wave 2, leading to a significant sell-off and a new downward wave (Wave 3). Primary Count - ABC Correction : The primary expectation is still an ABC correction, suggesting a rise to around 4400-4500 levels before a decline. New Lows Possible : If the downward trend continues post-correction, we might see new lows below 4100, possibly nearing 4000. Santa Rally : A short-term rally is anticipated, likely ending well before Christmas. Key Dates to Watch December 7: Futures roll date, marking a shift from one futures contract to another. December 15: Futures expiration date and a potential turning point for increased volatility, including in cryptocurrencies. Advice for Traders For beginner traders, this analysis suggests caution and vigilance, especially around the mentioned key dates. It's crucial to monitor market news and global events, as these can significantly impact market movements. Remember, while predictions and analyses are useful, the market can always behave unpredictably, and risk management should always be your top priority.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bitdoctor
11/9 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap In Tuesday's newsletter, we discussed the historic rally of the ES, which saw 7 green days in a row for the first time since November 2021. While there was a slight dip yesterday, this “red day” was quickly bought up, with ES closing only marginally off the recent highs. The extreme magnitude of this recent 8-day rally was demonstrated by yesterday’s 31-point micro-dip, the largest we have seen since October 27th. ES has spent since Friday in consolidation mode around the 4385 level, likely producing another large move. The Markets Overnight Eurozone finance ministers meet for the Economic and Financial Affairs Council. The council coordinates the economic policies of the 28 member states, and their initiatives and decisions can have a widespread effect on the Eurozone's economic health. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in San Francisco today in an effort to improve relations and economic ties. Major Global Catalysts 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Unchanged 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly Key Structures The ES chart is now very close to some of the most significant multi-month resistances. These include 4433, the core downtrend channel from the August high; 4418-24, a major resistance cluster in October and a major support cluster back in June and August; and 4399, which backtests the exact August 2023 low. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels Several big-picture structures/levels are notable from highest to lowest. These include 4425-30, 4399, 4376, 4336-26, 4279-83, and 4254-58. These structures are not comprehensive, but they provide some major ones to note. Resistance Levels 4398 (major), 4410, 4418, 4425-30 (major), 4439, 4445, 4460-63 (major), 4473, 4480-84 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4525-30 (major), 4537, 4543 (major). Trading Plan For today, there are two main scenarios to consider. In the bull case, we expect the ES to continue defending 4385 4375 supports, then push higher up the levels to 4410, 4418, 4425-30. In the bear case, we would need to see a failure at 4375-78, which could trigger the significant unwind many are waiting on. As long as above there, though, we continue basing for further upside. Wrap Up We remain in extreme uptrend mode. My general lean is as long as 4386-88, 4375-78 continues to hold on dips, and the rally continues with 4410, 4418, and 4425-30 magnets. If 4375 fails, we can finally begin a pullback. It should be substantial when it triggers. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/7 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap The market has seen an extraordinary seven green days in a row, with ES not only recording its largest single green week since the first week of November last year but also forming a clear bull flag. Yesterday was largely a consolidation day, but it continued the green streak, making it an even rarer six in a row. Today, we tested 4368-66 in the morning, rallied to 4399 minimum, and then rejected there. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down Key Structures The ES chart is now very close to some of the most significant multi-month resistances. These include 4433, the core downtrend channel from the August high; 4418-24, a major resistance cluster in October and a major support cluster back in June and August; and 4399, which backtests the exact August 2023 low. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and also reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4387-85 (major), 4376, 4367-71 (major), 4356, 4343, 4338 (major), 4326, 4321 (major), 4314, 4302-97 (major), 4290, 4279 (major), 4268, 4258, 4253 (major), 4243 (major), 4230, 4215 (major), 4205. Resistance Levels 4399-4401 (major), 4412, 4418, 4424 (major), 4430-32 (major), 4440, 4447-52 (major), 4462 (major), 4473, 4481-84, 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4520, 4525, 4532 (major). Trading Plan The bull case for tomorrow depends on the bull flag continuing to defend, meaning bulls want to hold above 4385, 4367-72 at the absolute lowest. If these hold, ES may have one pop left in it, with the obvious magnet being 4424, 4430-32. The bear case generally begins on the fail of 4367-72, with 4385 failure being an initial warning shot. Wrap Up In summary, any upside from here is purely a bonus. Setups are quite scarce up here, but the general lean is that as long as the bull flag defends (4385, 4367-72) ES can see a pop up the levels to 4424, 4430-32 then try a dip. If 4367-72 fails, we dip direct. In higher, we could expect some short-term consolidation to build up energy before heading higher. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/6 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap We witnessed an impressive stock market rally, marking the largest green week since the inception of the current bull market in October 2022, and a record not seen since November 2020. Every trading day experienced significant gains, driven by a strategic short squeeze following a preceding sell-off period. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Near unchanged 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirm commitment to oil production cuts. (link) KOSPI exchange index soars 5.6% after South Korea bans short selling until June 2024. Key Structures The pivot began post eight consecutive red days, fueling the rally through a significant buying pressure indicative of a short squeeze—a momentum mirrored only by the market's robust ascent since October 2022. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and also reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Continued strength as we head into next week would further solidify the case that this bull market still has room to run. Support Levels Major support levels: 4378, 4367-65, 4336, 4313, 4290, 4279, 4250-53, 4236, 4213-16, 4184. Minor support levels: 3929, 4060, 3798, 4453, 3536. Supports at 4367-65 are pivotal, having been tested last Friday, and now presenting potential weakness. Resistance Levels Major resistance levels: 4385, 4398, 4418-24, 4440, 4485-89, 4496, 4508, 4514, 4537-42. Minor support levels: 4135, 4020, 3906, 4595, 4480 The major resistance zones at 4418-24 could be critical for establishing the market's short-term trajectory. Trading Plan The initial support to watch is at 4367-65. A break below could signal a pullback, with 4335-38 as the next critical juncture for potential long positions, reflecting last Friday's breakout point. Wrap Up While the market's direction seems to sustain its ascent, caution is paramount given the unpredictable nature of this 'melt-up' phase. Watch for a potential dip to 4335 as a litmus test for the market's strength; a failure here may precipitate a retrace towards 4290. Maintain a reactive stance, ready to adapt to the market's signals. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/3 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap In the past week, we saw an impressive rally of 180 points, marking one of the best trades of the year. This was largely due to a textbook failed breakdown bottoming setup triggering on Sunday evening, demonstrating the power of the short squeeze. The rally continued for four days straight, reaching a peak at a major pivot point of 4336. This marked the largest rally since the broad correction began on August 1st. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down a lot 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Down Major Global Catalysts Non-Farm Payrolls come in light showing a slower jobs market Key Structures The market's structure is currently framed by several crucial levels that demand attention. The most pivotal of these is the 4135 level, which has emerged as a significant point of contention between buyers and sellers. This level served as a major resistance point and is now a key marker to watch for potential support. The 4020 level is also of note, having previously acted as resistance. As the market dynamics evolve, this level could be tested again, potentially reinforcing or invalidating its role as a resistance-turned-support. Moreover, the levels of 3928 and 3797 are essential to monitor as they have provided substantial support in the past. Any movements towards these levels could indicate a market seeking stability. The market has reached an important juncture today, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and also reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Continued strength as we head into next week would further solidify the case that this bull market still has room to run. Support Levels The foundations of our market are clearly defined by critical support levels. Our analysis highlights key supports at 3928, 4059, and 3797. These levels are pivotal, having been tested and held firm under market pressure, signifying their importance. It's imperative for investors to monitor the 4452 and 3535 zones as these levels have also served as significant support. Their role in historical price movements has been substantial, and they remain crucial for the market's underpinning. Resistance Levels As for the upside barriers, our analysis identifies resistance at 4135 and 4020. Overcoming these levels could signal strength and a potential bullish continuation. The minor resistance levels at 3905, 4594, and 4479 also pose hurdles for price advances and should be watched closely by traders. Trading Plan In the context of recent market movements, it is paramount to focus on preserving capital. The period following a significant price trend is often marked by uncertainty, making it a challenging trading environment. Caution is advised, with a preference for observing the market's reaction to key levels rather than committing to new positions. Wrap Up After a period of gains, the market appears to be entering a consolidation phase. Although the momentum is with the bulls, there is a palpable risk of pullback. Close observation is required to see if the critical support at 4269-71 holds, as it was instrumental in the last upward movement. Conversely, if the 4302 support gives way, it could lead to a notable decline, offering opportunities for bearish positions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/2 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap This week started off with a firm yes rallying 100+ points from Friday’s low to yesterday’s high. The rally was triggered by a reclaim of 4154 on Monday, which put in a failed breakdown bottoming trigger. This led to three large green days in a row. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up except Mainland China down slightly 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Down a lot 🧐 Yields: Down considerably, TLT up very strongly 🔮 Crypto: Mixed Major Global Catalysts FOMC does not raise interest rates Apple set to report fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Key Structures Several big picture structures/levels stand out, arranged from highest to lowest. Notable levels include 4594 (minor resistance), 4479 (minor resistance), 4368 (major resistance), 4335 (minor resistance), 4307 (major resistance), 4279 (major resistance), and 4250 (major support). These are key levels to monitor, providing a snapshot of major structural points within the market. Support Levels 4250 (major), 4230 (major), 4214 (major), 4205 (major), 4135 (major), 4112 (major), 4321 (minor), 4452 (minor), and 3535 (minor). These levels are pivotal, with major supports being more critical junctures and minor supports offering additional layers of potential price stabilization. Resistance Levels 4594 (minor), 4479 (minor), 4368 (major), 4335 (minor), 4307 (major), 4279 (major), 4250 (major), 4135 (major), and 3905 (minor). These represent significant barriers to price movement, where we might expect sell-offs or reversals, with major resistances likely posing stronger opposition to upward trends. Trading Plan Following the significant rally, caution is advised against immediately purchasing at the first support. Watch for failed breakdowns, which could be opportune moments. The 4230 (major) zone is the first substantial support level for potential entry. Should the price dip further, 4214 to 4205 is another key area with a higher chance of a rebound. Wrap Up After three consecutive days of gains, it's prudent to adopt a more cautious stance on long positions. Preferably, a period of consolidation or a slight pullback would be healthy. The bull scenario hinges on holding key levels, especially around 4230 (major) and potentially 4214 as the lowest dip locations. Maintaining these levels could pave the way for an ascent to 4279, followed by a potential retest, then upward to the low 4300s, which seems to be the next target. The bulls retain the upper hand for now. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/1 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap This week began with ES breaking the deepest sell cycle of 2023, which saw 8 of the last 9 trading days red before Monday. The market finally capitulated and put in a green day Monday, followed by another green day Tuesday. This was in line with my plan for the week, which was to get long when 4153-47 reclaims. We reclaimed this level on Monday, back-tested, and have been moving up since then. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up slightly, volatile 🔮 Crypto: Up slightly Major Global Catalysts FOMC day! US Treasury, FOMC, Jay Powell, and macro-economic data in focus today. Key Structures There are several key structures and levels to note in the current market landscape. These include 4280, 4247-50, 4230, 4203, 4154-57, and 4113. Each of these levels represents critical resistance or support points that will play a significant role in determining market direction. Support Levels 4203-05, 4190, 4182, 4171, 4163, 4154-57, 4147, 4135, 4125, 4113, 4103, 4090, 4075-80, 4064, 4055-60, 4043, 4025-30, 4011, 4000-4005, 3987, and 3976-79. Resistance Levels 4247-50, 4262, 4268, 4277-79, 4290, 4297, 4302-05, 4314, 4322, 4336, 4341, 4350-55, 4366, 4376, 4381, 4387. Trading Plan Given the volatility and complexity of FOMC days, my strategy is to size down and focus on failed breakdowns. I am looking for a level/key low to flush, trap, reclaim, then I get in. I will be trading the plan below, level to level, one move at a time. The bull case remains in play as long as we are above 4154-57, with 4247-50 being the obvious magnet. The bear case begins on the fail of 4154-57, with a new low down to 4112 quite likely if that support goes. Wrap Up Today is FOMC day, which is notoriously the most volatile, complex, and defining day of the year. It is essential to be reactive and not to predict the action in advance. 4213-4215 was a big resistance that cleared, as seen in the 4-hour chart. My lean is we can defend 4180 on any flushes then head to 4250 target. However, I will react to whatever path price chooses - I follow price, not tell it where to go. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/31 Trading Plan -Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap The last week has been tough for the SPX, with 8 of the last 9 days seeing red. After a relentless three-day sell-off, ES managed a 70 point relief rally from Friday's lows. Yesterday, the bulls managed to reverse it and reclaim the 4147-54 level, leading to a green day. The question now is, can bulls manage green day #2, and perhaps more? The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit Major Global Catalysts US Treasury lowers it’s borrowing estimate for Q4 and Q1. Key Structures 4247-50: This was the zone where it all began last Wednesday. We broke this down on Wednesday morning following 2 days of basing here. It is now a key backtest level. 4225-30: Big breakout level back in August. 4205: This area was an important support way back in May. We tested it 3x between May 10 and May 24th and it started a significant multi-month rally. 4147-53: This zone was an important level back in March, April and May. It was an important resistance in March, which then became support in May and set the ultimate May low. Support Levels 4180-82 (major), 4171, 4162, 4147-53 (major), 4136, 4125 (major), 4112 (major), 4101, 4092 (major), 4075-80 (major), 4069, 4055-60 (major), 4043, 4037, 4025-30 (major). Resistance Levels 4213 (major), 4225-30 (major), 4242, 4248-50 (major), 4258 (major), 4268, 4279, 4285 (major), 4297-4300 (major), 4314. Trading Plan Bull case today: ES did put in the framework for another attempted relief bounce, and generally, this is in play as long as we are above 4153-47, and sensible targets would be 4225-30, then 4247-50. Bear case today: Begins on the failure of 4147-53. If 4153-47 fails, we must make a new low before another attempt. Wrap Up In summary, bulls are attempting another relief rally. These have nearly all failed for the past month, but in general, as long as 4147-53 keeps holding, the attempt is alive. If 4153-47 fails, we must make a new low before another attempt. As always, trade tactfully and avoid impulse entries. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/30 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap The week saw a continuation of the red streak in ES, with 8 of the last 9 days being red. The week was characterized by heavy selling, with ES losing its core bull market trendline from the 2020 COVID lows. Since then, ES has been in “sell the bounce” mode, with periods of basing interspersed by sharp sells lower for a total of 100 points down since the loss of this level on Wednesday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up slightly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit Major Global Catalysts Markets shrug off intensification of Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza. Key Structures 4225: It was a big breakout level back in August. 4205: An important support way back in May. It failed on Wednesday after hours, backtested from below on Thursday, and we continued lower. 4153: An important level back in March, April and May. It was major support on Thursday, and acted as support yet again last Friday before flushing after 5 tests. 4120-26: The zone we ultimately broke out from in late March 2023, after nearly a full month of basing. 4075-80: A critical support zone. 4050-52: A major channel support. Support Levels 4125 (major), 4117, 4112, 4102 (major), 4092 (major), 4076-80 (major), 4060, 4050-52 (major), 4045, 4025-30 (major), 4017, 4000-4005 (major). Resistance Levels 4136, 4141, 4147-53 (major), 4163, 4171, 4181, 4187-90 (major), 4205 (major), 4213, 4218, 4225-30 (major), 4237, 4248-50 (major), 4255, 4264-68 (major), 4286, 4297-4300 (major), 4314-16 (major), 4323, 4335-40 (major), 4346, 4355, 4366-68 (major). Trading Plan The bull case started today with the reclaim of 4147-54. The bear case begins on the fail of 4125. The best shorts are on bounces, not on chasing red at the lows. If we test 4125 again put in another tradable bounce/failed breakdown (perhaps to 4117) then lose it after, I’d be looking short perhaps 4116 for the next leg down to 4102 then 4092. Wrap Up Although bears remain in control, downside is heavily stretched here, and RSI extremely oversold. As long as 4154 holds, we can work down to that 4101, 4092 zone before trying to hammer a low and reclaim 4154. Since 4154 reclaimed off the bat today, we start up direct. We could see a few large green days in the day ahead, but no promises. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/27 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week was the longest stretch of consecutive red days in 2023, with the SPX experiencing 5 red days in a row for the first time this year. This week started off with a single green day, representing a 70-point bounce to reset after 5 days. We spent 3/4 of yesterday in sell mode, making it 7 out of the last 8 red days. The question is whether this bounce is another dead cat or the beginning of a sustained recovery leg. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly Major Global Catalysts Core PCE eases slightly in September Key Structures 4279: Connecting the two rising October lows acting as ultimate resistance this week. 4247-50: The key support zone for the last few days collapsed on Wednesday. 4205: Important support zone back in May. 4153: Important support zone in March, April, and May. Support Levels 4163, 4153 (major), 4147, 4135, 4126 (major), 4112, 4102-4106, 4092 (major), 4083, 4076 (major), 4060, 4048-50 (major), 4040, 4026-29 (major), 4016, 4000-4005 (major). Resistance Levels 4171 (major), 4185-90 (major), 4205 (major), 4213, 4220-23 (major), 4231, 4248-50 (major), 4259, 4268 (major), 4279 (major). Trading Plan The context remains very bearish as long as we are sub 4205. If we can hold 4153, we could see a relief bounce. If 4153 fails, we could see another deep leg lower that should see 4126 at least. For those looking for short reactions, 4220-23 and 4248-50 are the best probability spots to look for a dip. Wrap Up With Amazon earnings out, we should expect more volatility, and predictability may be difficult. However, if we can defend 4153, we could see a relief bounce with 4171 as a trigger. If 4153 fails, we should expect to continue lower to 4126, 4076. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/26 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap The past week has seen the ES experience an unusual streak of red days, with six out of the last seven days ending in the red. This rare occurrence was followed by a green day on Tuesday as part of a broader relief rally at the Sunday futures open. However, the bulls could not sustain this momentum, and we saw a return to the red. The ES has been base building between 4245 and 4275 but lost this support on Wednesday, triggering a bearish start to the session. The RSI is oversold again, suggesting a potential short squeeze may be on the horizon. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down a lot, China up slightly 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Mostly down but rallying off earlier lows 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a lot 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Mostly up Major Global Catalysts ECB holds rates steady for the first time in 10 meetings. The US House has a new speaker who’s expected to support a stop-gap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown in November. Key Structures The 4335-40 zone remains a major pivot, connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. The 4247-50 zone has been key support over the last few days, but this collapsed on Wednesday. The 4205 area was an important support in May and has been held so far this week. Support Levels 4214, 4205 (major), 4186-90 (major), 4173, 4163, 4154 (major), 4143, 4127 (major), 4112, 4108, 4101, 4093 (major). Resistance Levels 4221 (major), 4233, 4247-50 (major), 4258 (major), 4271, 4279 (major), 4290, 4297-4302 (major), 4310, 4322 (major), 4328, 4335-40 (major), 4349, 4355-59 (major) Trading Plan The bear case remains dominant until proven otherwise. The best shorts are on backtests, but for those looking at breakdown trades, the failure of 4205 and 4185-90 is key. For the bull case, a reclaim of 4220 is needed to start, then a reclaim of 4247-50. A reclaim of 4220 would open a retest of 4247-50, and from there, it's likely we could see at least a few green days back to 4300. Wrap Up While bears remain in control, there is a risk of a short squeeze, which is often sudden and violent. The general lean is that 4185-90 can hold, then try the reclaim of 4220 to push back to 4247-50, dip there, then try higher. If 4185-90 fails, we sell to 4163-53. The key is to remain reactive, trading level to level, and leaving any bullish or bearish big-picture outlook at the door before the trading day starts. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/25 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap Yesterday, ES broke its 5-day red streak, the longest in 2023. The green day was expected as ES tested its primary bull market trendline from the 2020 COVID lows and put in a failed breakdown bottoming setup of last week's lows. This setup led me to go long on Sunday/Monday from 4215, adding to it at Monday's close at 4245. The market action played out as expected, with ES holding 4245 overnight and rallying to 4270s this morning. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Near unchanged 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts More stimulus rolled out to boost China’s economy. Key Structures Some notable structures/levels from highest to lowest include 4335-40, 4302-4297, 4275, 4245-50, 4220, and 4205. Support Levels 4268 (major), 4254, 4245-50 (major), 4238, 4237, 4220 (major), 4213, 4205 (major), 4196, 4185-90 (major), 4172, 4163 (major), 4153, 4144, 4126 (major), 4108, 4101, 4090-95 (major), 4076 (major), 4062, 4055, 4045-50 (major). Resistance Levels 4275 (major), 4280, 4297-4302 (major), 4308, 4314, 4322-25 (major), 4335-40 (major), 4347, 4355, 4366-70 (major), 4376, 4386 (major), 4395, 4402, 4408 (major), 4418, 4424 (major), 4436-39, 4449, 4460 (major). Trading Plan The bull case remains unchanged. As long as ES remains above 4245, the 4245-75 zone is considered a consolidation zone to set up a run to 4300ish, then onto 4322, 4335-40. For the bear case, 4245 needs to fail. If 4245 fails, we retest 4220. Wrap Up In summary, while tech earnings after hours yesterday could introduce trappy volatility, the general lean remains unchanged. As long as 4245 continues holding (and ideally for bulls now, 4268), we can push back to 4297-4300, perhaps dip, then onto 4322, 4335-40. If 4245 fails, we retest 4220. This level must hold for bulls. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/24 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week, ES ended with a rare 4-day losing streak, pushing the RSI(5) into oversold territory. Despite a short squeeze yesterday, ES failed to close green, ending the day around the same spot as Friday. However, a bullish hammer candle was formed, indicating potential for a bullish follow-up today. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Near unchanged 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Mixed 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly Major Global Catalysts Yields finally pullback Key Structures The breakdown of the core uptrend line from October 2022 through March 2023 was met with a short squeeze that occurred yesterday due to a failed breakdown and hitting multi-year support. As long as 4245 holds, we could see a return to 4272, and possibly 4297-4300. Support Levels 4242-45, 4227, 4217-20, 4214, 4205, 4185-90, 4173, 4162, 4154, 4145, 4127-30, 4110, 4101, 4092-95, 4075, 4067, 4055, and 4047. Resistance Levels 4258, 4268-72, 4279, 4287, 4297-4302, 4314, 4322, 4327, 4335, 4342, 4355, 4365, 4372-75, 4385, 4396, 4404, 4408, 4412, 4418, 4427, and 4439. Trading Plan The bull case for today would see the 4242 level hold, with any dips below going no lower than 4220 and spiking back up quickly. If this level holds, ES could aim for a green day, re-testing 4270 before heading up to 4297-4300 and 4335. The bear case starts with the failure of 4220-17, with a possible short at 4217 after a clear trendline/structure forms. Wrap Up Despite 5 red days in a row, the bulls have shown potential with a failed breakdown of last week's low, a daily hammer candle, and defending the trendline from the COVID lows. As long as 4245 holds, we could see a return to 4272, and possibly 4297-4300. However, failure of 4245 could lead to a retest of 4217-20 and a new leg down to 4185-90. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/23 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap Last Friday, we saw the market slowly grind down through supports all day, with a few minor relief pops. This marked the fourth consecutive red day for ES, closing at the lows. At the same time, the RSI is nearly the most oversold this year, leading to speculation about a potential relief bounce. In this newsletter, we'll discuss the triggers and setups that led to last Friday's selling and break down the actionable trade plan for today. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts 10-year yield breaks through 5% Key Structures Last Thursday, ES lost support of a significant zone that I had been discussing daily for weeks. This zone was a confluence between the core rising bull market trendline from October 2022 and 4330-35, as well as an important horizontal trendline connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. This zone has been referred to as the “bull/bear line” - bulls control above, bears control below. Support Levels 4215 (major), 4205, 4200, 4190 (major), 4182, 4172, 4163 (major), 4153, 4145 (major), 4134, 4127(major). Resistance Levels 4259, 4268-70 (major), 4279, 4287, 4297-4302 (major), 4313 (major), 4322, 4330-35 (major), 4342, 4346, 4355, 4365 (major), 4373, 4383-85 (major), 4395, 4399-4400, 4408, 4413 (major), 4424 (major) Trading Plan There is no bull case until bulls reclaim a resistance to make the case for one. The main one here is 4330-35, but this is quite a ways away now, and this is needed to set a “bottom”. Shorter-term, 4268-70 would be critical, and reclaim there should start a move back to 4300, then likely all the way back to 4330-35 for the backtest. Bears remain in control until proven otherwise. The best shorts are on bounces (backtests) rather than chasing at lows, especially when RSI is dangerously oversold. Wrap Up In summary, bears remain in control, but after 4 red days and with RSI buried, there is a risk of a short squeeze. The focus should be on reacting to the above plan, with a general lean towards a potential relief pop off 4245, before resumption down to a new low to 4222-4215 area. As always, trade what you see, not what you think. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
10/20 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap After being in corrective mode for several days, ES arrived at the technical equivalent of ground zero - the 4330-36 zone. This zone is significant as it defines the uptrend that ES has been in for exactly 1 year. The arrival at this zone resulted in some of the most volatile, trap-filled, bipolar price action in many months. The 4330-36 zone was tested 5x over the past 24hrs, with multiple liquidity grabs below and multiple resultant 30-40 point squeezes, before finally losing it late day and flushing hard. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Unchanged 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly Major Global Catalysts Jay Powell’s hawkish statements. China imposes restrictions on graphite used in EV batteries in retaliation for new US chip export controls. Key Structures Two lines have been discussed for weeks and months. One is the core bull market trendline from October 2022, which fell 4336 yesterday. The other the horizontal trendline connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. These lines converged at the same spot at 4335-4330, causing significant price action. Support Levels 4296-4302, 4280, 4268, 4222, 4213, 4205, 4182, 4153. Resistance Levels 4330-35, 4355-57, 4373, 4385, 4413, 4418, 4439, 4460, 4468, 4480-85. Trading Plan For any "bull case" in a sustained sense, 4330-35 must reclaim. If we continue selling today, 4268 is the absolute lowest bulls can see, as below there we start down to new lows at 4222. In terms of spots to add on strength before 4335, reclaims of 4302 are of interest. The bear case today begins on the fail of 4296-4302. If ES accepts this zone overnight and clearly fails to push and builds a base - very low 4290s/high 4280s 1 spot to try a "breakdown short". The next "big short" for me comes on the fail of 4268. Wrap Up We have lost a major support at 4330-35 and put in a big red day. It is likely the level backtests from below now. My general lean is we can perhaps push lower to 4279 or 4268 lowest, then attempt to backtest 4330-35. If 4302 reclaims, we may backtest direct. New lows below 4268.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
10/19 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap Yesterday marked the fifth consecutive day of intensive rangebound trading, making it one of the choppiest days in recent months. It ended with a late-day downward trend, following a 187-point rally from the October 6th low. The market spent nearly a week in consolidation mode, oscillating between 4366 and 4418. This range eventually tightened and peaked yesterday before finally breaking. The 4375-67 zone was a key battleground, with the market bouncing there twice before finally breaking down mid-day. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a lot 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Mixed Major Global Catalysts Yields and mortgage rates approaching two-decade highs. Key Structures The key structures to note include 4477-82, 4418, 4374-67, 4336, 4330, 4302, and 4268. Each of these represents important pivot points or trendlines that have influenced the market's movements. Support Levels 4343, 4335, 4329, 4322, 4314, 4302, 4292, 4286, 4279, 4266-68, 4258, 4251, 4233, 4227, 4224, 4213, and 4205. Resistance Levels 4356, 4367, 4373-75, 4385, 4394, 4404, 4412, 4416-18, 4432, 4338, 4449, 4458-60, 4473, 4480-85, 4494, 4505-07, 4515, 4525, 4532-35, 4542, and 4549. Trading Plan For bulls, the 4330-36 zone must hold, and 4373-75 must be reclaimed to set a "bottom". For bears, a fail of 4335 could initiate a bearish move. In both cases, avoid chasing and aim for entries close to recent highs/lows or near a recent base. Wrap Up The market is still in a corrective phase following last week's rally. The core bull market trendline from October 2022 at 4330-36 was backtested late yesterday and will be key today. If 4330-36 holds, we could backtest 4373-75 once more. If it fails, we could start a leg lower to 4302. The RSI is now extremely oversold, indicating a potential for a reversal. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro