Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious on OPEX Friday
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by OPEX)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5213 (major), 5207, 5200 (major), 5196, 5192 (major), 5181, 5176, 5165 (major), 5160, 5152, 5146 (major), 5141, 5136, 5126, 5119, 5109-11 (major), 5102, 5091 (major), 5086-88 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5221 (major), 5229-32 (major), 5236, 5240, 5246, 5251 (major), 5257, 5264, 5269, 5278, 5287 (major), 5294-96 (major), 5308, 5315 (major), 5326, 5337, 5343 (major), 5352 (major), 5362, 5375-80 (major)
Trading Strategy: OPEX Caution
OPEX Volatility: Expect potential chop and poor follow-through due to options expiration dynamics. Exercise increased caution and prioritize capital preservation.
Limited Positions: Reduce position sizes or consider sitting out the majority of the day. Avoid impulsive overtrading.
Watch Out for Chop: The zone between 5192 and 5230 is particularly messy. Trade with extreme care within this range.
Support Focus: Watch 5213 and 5200 for potential bounce plays, however, these zones are heavily used up and may not offer reliable setups.
Long Opportunity: Look for longs around 5192 (the last major support before a steeper sell-off). Avoid longs below 5165.
Bull Case
OPEX Range: Expect a potential ugly range trade between 5192 (lowest support) and 5230. A successful defense of supports would set up a breakout towards 5251 and further toward the 5290s.
Overnight Strength: If overnight trading shows basing below 5220, consider potential upside towards the next resistance level.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5191 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces, ideally after a test of 5191.
News: Top Stories for March 15th, 2024
Stock Market Rally: The S&P 500 continues its upward momentum, driven by strong fundamentals, earnings growth, particularly in the tech sector (AI stocks), and investor optimism for a Fed soft landing.
Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rate policy but signals potential rate cuts later in the year.
Mixed Economic Data: Economic indicators show both strength and pockets of weakness. GDP growth remains impressive, while inflation data suggests challenges in the Fed's fight to control prices.
Banking Regulations: One year after bank run concerns, regulators prepare new rules to mitigate future financial instability.
Corporate Debt Concerns: Corporate defaults rise, highlighting the strain of inflation and high interest rates on riskier borrowers.
Private Equity Expansion: Private equity giants expand into consumer debt markets, potentially impacting household financial health.
Inflation Updates: The CPI and Core CPI remain critical for understanding inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve rate changes.
Global Risks: Monitor ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate risks, technological disruption, and election-related uncertainties for impacts on global markets.
CFO Trends: Focus on digital transformation, strategic planning with AI/automation, and balanced growth strategies.
Energy Transition: Challenges in the transition to net-zero energy become evident as major players face hurdles.
Remember: Options Expiration (OPEX) can cause unpredictable market behavior. Trade with reduced risk, prioritize capital preservation, and be prepared for rapid shifts in direction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor for trading decisions.
