Get started

Federalreserve

PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO THE FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds. PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S. JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE , COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION. -THE NOTES ON THE CHART REFLECT KEY EVENTS THAT MARKED THE PEAK IN THE U$D's EXCHANGE RATE VS OTHER CURRENCIES
INDEX:DXYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO TO FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds. PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S. JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE, COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION. -IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 0% YIELD ON U.S. 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND IS A DANGER ZONE IN EITHER CASE, AS FOREIGN ENTITIES WILL NO LONGER HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO HOLD U.S. TREASURIES, PREFERRING CASH, GOLD OR OTHER ASSETS OVER A NEGATIVE YIELDING BOND. -THE NOTES ON THE CHART OFFER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS AS TO WHY YIELDS BOTTOMED OR PEAKED AT VARIOUS POINTS DURING THIS BOND BULL MARKET.
TVC:US10YEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
UNDERSTAND THE EURODOLLAR!THE EURODOLLAR FUTURES CONTRACT REFLECTS THE L.I.B.O.R. INTEREST RATE (A BENCHMARK FOR THE INTEREST RATE AT WHICH MAJOR BANKS LEND TO EACH OTHER)! WHEN THE PRICE OF THE CONTRACT INCREASES, THE L.I.B.O.R. INTEREST RATE IS DECREASING, WHEN THE PRICE FALLS, IT IS INCREASING! THE PERIOD I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS POST IS THE PERIOD OF DOLLAR ILLIQUIDITY THAT OCCURRED IN THE LATE 00s-EARLY 10s! AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE INTERVENED AND PROVIDED LIQUIDITY, L.I.B.O.R. WAS SUPPRESSED, AND THE SIZE OF THE INTERVENTION ALMOST PUSHED THE RATE TO 0! THE SIZE OF THE INTERVENTION IS IMPORTANT IN THAT IT REFLECTS THE SIZE OF THE PROBLEM, INDICATING THAT THE GLOBAL LACK OF DOLLARS WAS SEVERE! WHILE THE INTERVENTION SUCCEEDED IN SUPPRESSING L.I.B.O.R. OVERALL, THERE WERE SEVERAL PERIODS DURING WHICH THE LACK OF AVAILABLE U$Ds CAUSED LENDING BETWEEN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TO CONTRACT, INCREASING L.I.B.O.R., CAUSING A NUMBER OF PROBLEMS AND FORCING FURTHER ACTION BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE! THE 2008 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS WAS NOT NECESSARILY CAUSED BY A REDUCTION IN U.S. HOME PRICES, BUT BY A SYSTEMIC BANKING DOLLAR SHORTAGE! THE LACK OF U$Ds REMAINS, AND HAS EVEN INCREASED, HOWEVER ENTIRE NATIONS ARE AT RISK OF SUFFERING THE CONSEQUENCES, NOT ONLY THEIR BANKS! NOW THE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS ARE: 1. IS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY NOW DEPENDENT ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE PROVIDING NEW U$Ds TO AVOID A COMPLETE DEFLATIONARY COLLAPSE? (MOST LIKELY YES) 2. IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE ABLE TO SATISFY THE INTERNATIONAL DEMAND FOR U$Ds, NOT IN TERMS OF AMOUNT, BUT IN TERMS OF DEPTH, REACHING FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND CORPORATIONS NOT DIRECTLY TIED TO THE MAJOR U.S. BANKS? (QUITE POSSIBLY NO, BUT THEY WILL TRY THEIR HARDEST) 3. IF WE ASSUME THIS IS THE DEATH RATTLE OF THE DOLLAR'S WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS, WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, THAT IT IS INFLATED AWAY OR THAT IT IMPLODES ON ITSELF? (I WOULD ARGUE GIVEN THE FED'S ACTIONS, THAT IT WILL BE INFLATED AWAY) 4. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE LOSS OF RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS OCCURS, A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS PROCESS WILL BRING ABOUT A COMPLETE SELL-OFF IN THE U.S. TREASURY MARKET, FORCING THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO COMPLETELY MONETIZE THESE BONDS TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING: IF THIS UNFOLDS, CAN ANY OTHER POSSIBILITY BUT HYPERINFLATION BE CONSIDERED? (NO)
GEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
5
DXY THEORY YOU HAVEN'T HEARD YET!THE DXY IS ONLY MADE UP OF 6 MAJOR CURRENCIES MEASURED AGAINST THE DOLLAR: EUR (57.6% OF THE WEIGHTING), JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), CHF (3.6%) A MISTAKE MANY PEOPLE MAKE WHEN PREDICTING THE DOLLAR'S STRENGTH IS USING THE DXY AS A GAUGE FOR ALL CURRENCIES' PERFORMANCES AGAINST THE DOLLAR! EMERGING MARKET AND MANY OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE DXY! RECENTLY, PETER SCHIFF PLACED A BET WITH BRENT JOHNSON ON THE DIRECTION OF THE DXY, STATING THAT THE DXY WOULD BE WEAKER THAN 99 IN JANUARY 2021, WHILE BRENT JOHNSON PREDICTED IT WOULD BE HIGHER! PETER'S THEORY CLAIMS THAT THE CURRENCIES OF PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WILL STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR FOR MANY OBVIOUS REASONS, WHILE BRENT CLAIMS THAT THE MASSIVE SHORTAGE OF U$Ds WORLDWIDE WILL ACT AS DEMAND ON THE DOLLAR, INCREASING IT'S VALUE AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES! I BELIEVE THEY COULD BE BOTH RIGHT, AND THAT PETER MAY HAVE MADE A MISTAKE IN USING THE DXY AS A BAROMETER: BRENT JOHNSON IS RIGHT BECAUSE: THE WESTERN FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL ABSORB ALL U$Ds CREATED, AND EUR, GBP, CHF AND CAD WILL ESPECIALLY SUFFER BECAUSE OF THE EURODOLLAR SYSTEM! WESTERN ECONOMIES COULD ALSO WEAKEN SEVERELY WHICH WOULD DEVALUE THEIR CURRENCIES IN ADDITION TO A EURODOLLAR SQUEEZE! PETER SCHIFF IS RIGHT BECAUSE: AS COUNTRIES NOT INCLUDED IN THE DXY DIMINISH THEIR TRADE WITH THE U.S.A., AS THEY CEASE USING THE EURODOLLAR TO SETTLE FORMS OF TRADE NOT INVOLVING THE U.S.A. (MAINLY OIL), AND AS THE AMOUNT OF U$Ds' CREATED IN EXCESS OF THEIR DEMAND FOR DOLLARS INCREASES, PRODUCTIVE ASIAN AND EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES WILL ABSOLUTELY STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR, BUT THIS WILL NOT APPEAR IN THE DXY! IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE MEETS THE GLOBAL DEMAND FOR DOLLARS, AND THEN SOME, WHICH WOULD DEVALUE THE DOLLAR AGAINST ALL CURRENCIES, AND I BELIEVE THIS IS THE CASE, BUT I DO NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY EXPLAINED ABOVE!
INDEX:DXYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Monday Was a Classic ‘False Breakdown’ in the S&P 500False breakdowns and false breakouts can be some of the most powerful reversal patterns in the market. We saw the start of one last Friday, when the S&P 500 closed below the key 2347 low from December 2018. Many traders had been watching that line in the sand as key support since the selloff began weeks ago. The bears managed to score some early victories with a big limit down on Sunday night. But then the Fed unloaded a bazooka full of cash and the sellers couldn’t push prices any lower. Unlike other limit-down moves, this time the regular session had no follow-through below the overnight price action. That was the first sign things were different. The second sign – and real signal – came first thing the next morning when SPX ripped above 2347 and never looked back. That erased the significance of the breakdown and confirmed the key support line. The candle’s long tail also created another potentially bullish reversal pattern: a hammer candlestick. In conclusion, support and resistance lines are always important but the stage of the move can matter more. The initial breakdown under 3200 on February 25 was a big deal because it confirmed the beginning of a trend. But after four weeks of vicious downside, SPX’s failed violation of 2347 could mark the end of its current decline.
SP:SPXEducation
by TradeStation
1
ILLUMINATI OWL PIG GOES TO MOONImagine time traveling to 2019 from 1999. You get here and there is a digital currency market. ~Sears is Bankrupt. ~United Nations Going Bankrupt. ~Debt is so big Interest Rates can never "NORMALIZE" in current structure. ~Central Banks are doing REPO but are ~SCARED TO CALL IT QE. ~Trump is saying Central Bank has lost their minds. ~Venezuela is adopting the cryptocurrencies. ~Goverrnment is attacking the facebook but GOVERNMENT CREATED FACEBOOK COVERTLY. ~Mainstream media is faking bombings. ~California is Burning. ~Fracking is a LOSING BUSINESS. ~BUT EVERYONE EITHER THINKS its all great...its all chaos...or its all a master plan. DO YOU TIME TRAVEL BACK TO 1999 OR STAY AND BUY BITCOIN?!!!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by denniswokeupinanewbitcoin
Federal Reserve news: markets leap around the world!In the screencast I show how supposedly good news from the Federal Reserve today caused stockmarkets all over the world to leap north. Wall Street jumped some 600+ points, for the joy of many people. I don't see any reason for joy. Sorry. Forex pairs influenced by stock markets also moved seriously. The reality is that Powell used softer more measured and 'pleasing' language. However, the 38 page full text of the Feds Financial Stability report of 28th Nov 2018, contains a rather worrying situation that was in need of 'monitoring'. Lovely language - isn't it? ;) Powell actually pointed to the " Bottom Line: Financial Stability Risks Are Moderate ". It's all in the 'choice of words'. So - beware of crowds and what you pick up on the news.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Prediction of the S&P500 and NIkkei based on financials and CPIIn the following content i will explain how you can forecast the market with CPI (inflation) and Financials: If we look at our figure we can say a few things, i will assume them below: 1. ABN AMRO (a dutch Financial) is highly correlated to the NIKKEI225 index. 2. Since nearly May 2016 we can see that the CPI (inflation)-chart has change 5 times. If we look at the Nikkei225 index we can see a few things: when the inflation in the US rose, the Nikkei225 fell 4 out 5 ( a chance of 90% or mathematical: a chance of 0.900). Using maths we know that ABN AMRO has an statistic correlation of 0.70 < r < 0.90 (70% - 90%) to the Nikkei225. Conclusion: The fInancials are following the NIkkei225, and in turn the Nikkei is following the US CPI (inflation) in a divergence/opposite movement. 3. We can use the inflaton from the US as a staircase for the movement in the S&P500 (on this moment a consolidating market) Sources: Bloomberg Markets, ING Technical Analyses NOTE: I don't make any predictions, making decisions based on my reports is at you'r own risk!
INDEX:NKYEducation
by tmp_cox