EMOTIONS! Chapter-2In trading, emotions can easily become your biggest enemy, and it's crucial to understand that “you are your own opponent.” The market isn’t against you—it’s neutral, driven by global forces like supply and demand, economic policies, and geopolitical events. It doesn’t care whether you win or lose. The real battle is internal, and your success depends on your ability to manage your emotional responses. Emotions like fear, greed, frustration, and overconfidence are powerful forces that, if left unchecked, can lead to impulsive decisions and costly mistakes. The key to thriving in the forex market is learning how to control those emotions, because if you don’t, they will control you.
I learned this lesson the hard way back in 2016. At the time, I had just started gaining confidence after a string of successful trades. That confidence quickly turned into greed. I started taking bigger risks, convinced that I was riding a winning streak. Then, things turned. The market shifted, and I began losing trades. Instead of stepping back and re-evaluating, I panicked. I felt this urgent need to recover my losses, so I started chasing the market. Every time I saw an opportunity, I jumped on it without thinking, trading out of desperation rather than strategy. I kept telling myself I could make it all back with just one more trade, but the more I tried, the deeper I sank into losses. It felt like the market was conspiring against me, but the truth was, I was sabotaging myself. I was letting my emotions dictate my decisions, and that was the real problem.
Fear took over when I lost, and greed controlled me when I won. I wasn’t sticking to my trading plan, and I wasn’t thinking rationally. Instead of approaching the market with a clear, calm mindset, I was reacting emotionally to every price movement. It was a vicious cycle—each loss made me more desperate to win, and each win made me more overconfident. I was chasing quick fixes, but in reality, I was only digging a deeper hole. That experience was a painful reminder that in forex trading, the market isn’t there to beat you—it’s neutral. *You beat yourself* by letting emotions cloud your judgment and control your actions.
After that tough period in 2016, I knew something had to change. I realized that emotional control was not just a skill—it was a necessity if I wanted to succeed. I had to stop reacting impulsively and start trading with discipline. The first step was getting back to basics: sticking to my trading plan no matter what. I began to follow my risk management rules strictly, using stop-loss orders to protect myself from the emotional urge to "let a trade ride" in the hope of recovery. I also limited the amount of risk I was willing to take on each trade. Instead of chasing profits, I focused on preserving capital and managing risk.
One of the biggest changes I made was learning to step away when my emotions were running high. If I felt myself getting anxious, frustrated, or overexcited, I would close my trading platform and take a break. This gave me the space to regain perspective and come back with a clearer mind. I also started keeping a trading journal, documenting not just my trades but also how I felt during them. This helped me recognize emotional patterns—like when I was more prone to making impulsive decisions—and take steps to prevent them.
Over time, I developed a deeper understanding of how emotions influence trading. I came to realize that *success in forex isn’t about controlling the market—it’s about controlling yourself.* The market will always be unpredictable, but how you respond to that unpredictability determines your outcome. You can’t let fear make you exit a trade too early, nor can you let greed push you into taking unnecessary risks. By learning to control your emotions, you can make decisions based on logic and strategy rather than impulse. I also learned to embrace patience. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The best traders are those who wait for the right opportunities and don’t feel the need to constantly be in the market.
Looking back, that difficult year taught me a vital lesson: the market isn’t out to get you; it’s indifferent. You are the only one who can stand in your own way. By mastering your emotions, you can avoid self-sabotage and make rational, calculated decisions that will lead to long-term success. Now, when I trade, I do so with the understanding that my biggest challenge isn’t the market—it’s keeping my emotions in check. Trading with a clear, calm mind has made all the difference, and I know that no matter what the market throws at me, my success or failure depends on how well I manage myself.
Happy Trading!
-FxPocket
G-money
10 Effective Tips for Trading Profitably Without IndicatorsIn the fast-paced world of financial markets, trading profitably is a skill that every professional aspires to master. While indicators are commonly used tools for making trading decisions, there's a growing trend towards trading without relying on them. If you're a professional trader looking to enhance your trading strategies and achieve profitability without indicators, these ten tips will guide you on your journey.
Price action is the most direct representation of market dynamics. By focusing on price movements and patterns, you can interpret market sentiment and make informed trading decisions without the need for indicators.
Identifying key support and resistance levels on your charts can help you anticipate price movements and determine optimal entry and exit points. These levels are crucial for making trading decisions based on pure price movements.
Candlestick patterns provide valuable insights into market psychology and potential price reversals. Learning to recognize and interpret these patterns can give you a competitive edge in your trading strategies.
Effective risk management is essential when trading without indicators. Set clear stop-loss levels, calculate position sizes based on your risk tolerance, and adhere to disciplined money management principles to protect your capital.
While trading without indicators, trend analysis becomes even more critical. Identifying market trends and aligning your trades with the prevailing direction can increase your chances of success in the absence of traditional indicators.
Trading without indicators requires a high level of discipline and patience. Avoid impulsive decisions, stick to your trading plan, and wait for clear signals based on price action and analysis.
Stay informed about market news, economic events, and geopolitical developments that could impact the financial markets. Conducting thorough market analysis will help you make informed trading decisions based on fundamental factors.
Volume can provide valuable insights into the strength of a price movement. Analyzing trading volume alongside price action can help confirm potential trade setups and validate your trading decisions.
Understanding your emotions and psychological biases is crucial when trading without indicators. Develop mental discipline, manage stress effectively, and cultivate the mindset of a successful trader to navigate the challenges of indicator-free trading.
Continuous learning and improvement are key to mastering the art of trading without indicators. Explore new trading strategies, attend webinars, read trading books, and seek mentorship from experienced professionals to refine your skills and stay ahead in the competitive financial markets.
How to Trade Profitably without Indicators
Based on the insights shared and the site activity data analysis focusing on forex trading, it's evident that traders are embracing alternative approaches to trading, including strategies that do not rely on traditional indicators. By following these ten effective tips, professionals in the financial markets can navigate the complexities of trading without indicators, enhance their trading skills, and strive for profitability with confidence and precision.
How To Reset Your Money Paradigm | Trading PsychologyMoney isn't the root of all evil; the lack of money is! If you're a trader, you know this better than anyone. You’re out there every day, battling the markets, trying to turn your hard-earned dollars into more hard-earned dollars. But let me tell you, your success isn't just about charts and indicators; it's about what’s going on between your ears—your money psychology. Your mind is either your greatest asset or your biggest liability. So let’s get into how to reset that money paradigm and become truly prosperous!
5 Bullet Points on How to Reset Your Money Paradigm:
Money is a Divine Substance
Inspired by Catherine Ponder
Stop thinking of money as some cold, hard, external thing you have to chase after. Money is energy—Divine Substance! When you align yourself with prosperity, you don’t chase money; it chases you! Start affirming every day: “I am one with the energy of abundance, and money flows to me effortlessly!”
Change Your Inner Talk, Change Your Outer Reality
Inspired by Joseph Murphy
What do you say to yourself about money? “I can’t afford it,” or “I never have enough”? Cut it out! Your subconscious is always listening, and if you feed it scarcity, that’s what it’ll deliver. Instead, say things like, “I am wealthy in every way,” and watch how your financial reality begins to shift.
Leverage the Power of Compound Interest—On Your Thoughts
Inspired by Sebastian Mallaby
In trading, we all love the magic of compound interest. Well, guess what? Your thoughts work the same way! Start compounding positive, wealth-attracting thoughts, and over time, the interest will pay off big. Just like in finance, the earlier you start, the better your returns.
Expand Your Money Consciousness
Inspired by Catherine Ponder
Most people live with a 'just enough' mentality—just enough to pay the bills, just enough to get by. But if you’re going to be a successful trader, you need to expand your money consciousness. Think bigger! Envision yourself with more than enough. Prosperity loves a grand vision, so give it something to work with!
See the Market as a Mirror
Inspired by Rev Ike (yes, that’s me!)
The market reflects your beliefs about money. If you believe money is hard to come by, you'll see scarcity in the market. If you believe in abundance, you'll find opportunities everywhere. So, start seeing the market as a mirror of your inner world and polish that mirror with thoughts of prosperity and abundance.
So, beloved traders, remember this: money isn’t something you earn; it’s something you align with. Reset that paradigm, and you won’t just trade for money—you’ll attract it like a magnet!
Trade Safe, TL Turner
We’ve Paid Over $25,000 To Our Creators and CodersOur vibrant community is not only for professional investors, everyday traders and Pine scripters, it’s also home to content creators who share their wisdom, experiences, and market insights. We love our content creators and that’s why we recently launched our first-ever community content rewards program that gives $100 cash to anyone who is selected to Editors’ Picks and Pine Script Picks .
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The Evolution Of Money: From Barter-System To Cryptocurrency!Hello,
Welcome to this analysis about The Evolution Of Money. Till today money had a protracted history reaching back to times where there even did not exist electricity or industry like we now it these days. Since these beginnings money constantly reshaped and emerged new forms of money that theoretically can be applied still today however it is also a fact that it is important in which form the money circulates bringing innovation and prosperity to the civilization as there are money forms although logical from its form however contra-productive for the further developments.
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The Barter System (High Phase 98000 BC - 900 BC):
It is clear that in times where people did not have the ability to keep a sufficient store-of-value they had to adapt to circumstances and exchange what they had in order to receive things they need for everyday living, this form of money is called the "Barter-System". This system principally defines the exchange of goods and services against other goods and services. It was a typical hunter-gatherer-form of exchange between the individual occupations. For example, a fisherman had a lot of fish however no grain to exchange for and on the other side there was a farmer which had a lot of grain, however, no fish to eat, so these two come to an agreement to exchange the fish against the grain in order to fulfill both sides needs.
This system had a lot of substantial problems as it was not possible to store any value with the goods and services, besides it only functioned when the other side also searched for the offered product therefore there needed to be a double coincidence of wants otherwise an exchange was not fulfilled by both sides agreements. Besides that there was the issue with the indivisibility of goods, for example, one had one goat and needed one pot therefore it was only possible to exchange one goat against 10 pots and now the goat holder was stuck because he could not share the goat into 10 pieces to received his one pot as needed. Overall it was a complicated exchange system that definitely could have been improved.
Commodity Money (High Phase 6000 BC - 500 AD):
Since it was not possible to store values with the Barter-System as there were also many goods that fouled by the times this could also be improved by the right commodities that do not foul. In ancient Rome, the Romans moved on to keep salt as a store of value and exchange for goods and services. Salt is easily divisible, it can be stored for a long period of time and it was expensive and labor-intensive to produce therefore limited in quality, besides that it was widely consumed by everybody. Additionally to salt, many other forms of this commodity money emerged such as Cattle, Tobacco, Rice, Sugar, or Tea. All commodities which can be stored over a long period and exchange properly.
Together with these new gained advancements, it was a step in the right direction nevertheless there remained significant negative aspects in the commodity money these are various things such as some forms of cattle are very difficult to store because they need to be fed constantly and can not obtain a passive store, other forms like cowry shells are fragile and need to be transported carefully. Besides these storing problems, it was always difficult to transport over long routes as the commodities can take up so much room that it was simply so unpracticable to transport them over long distances. Also, there existed not universal acceptability so the two exchange partners needed to agree on the exchange of these commodities to come up with a deal.
Metal Money (600 BC till today)
Metal money was a true revolution in the money evolution and the story speaks for itself as it is still today widely accepted and a sufficient store of value with gold and silver holding its values. Against the commodity money, it was stable and had an inherent value as it is rare in nature as well as its supply is limited, the perfect characteristics for a natural store of value and also exchange value. As metals were already used for armors and tools and had already the value within these products this kept advancing with the first coins to be pressed in ancient Greece 600 BC after which the metallic money kept advancing into more sophisticated forms such as the IOUs and also tender coinage bringing a practicable way to pay for goods and services.
The Metallic Money shaped into different forms like the IOUs where Goldsmiths backed the gold and gave people a trust which they can exchange in order to receive goods and services, so the people came to the goldsmith and bought basically gold for which they received the document to pay with. The only problem with this system was that the Goldsmiths created fake IOUs and kept spending them. Besides this form, there was the legal coinage in Rome for example with gold coins issued by the empire however the problem, in this case, was that it got debased over time as the people mixed more cheap metal like copper with the gold coins to get a higher supply, today it wont function so easily as it can be proved nevertheless in this time it marked a serious issue.
Paper Money (1690 till today):
The emerging paper money in fact marked a true change in the whole money system as now it was not possible to issue by everybody, now it was issued by a central authority whereas these authorities firstly existed private also the mission came more and more into central bank area. The first printed money was created in 1690 in the form of a bill of credit to serve as a promissory note by the government on its own credit, these bill of credits were unsecured paper money and at this time in the 17th to 18th century, it was still possible to have private money with private companies creating own bills with the individual exchange qualities to get into the circulation.
Till today many currencies have established holding the money as it is issued by certain central banks such as the US-Dollar by the Federal-Reserve-System or the EURO by the European-Central-Bank. The problem here is that this money is printed by will and the central banks have the ability to just print more when the time is needed to do so like it was seen in the corona crisis where the money sum moved exponentially to new heights. Although Paper Money is still omnipresent and used as a store of value as well as exchange value to there are important faults that need to be improved to keep a healthy economic balance and obtain continued stable money.
Plastic Money (1946 till today):
In the 20Th Century, the printed central bank money moved now into the account money especially backed by the payment providers in the individual credit or debit cards. The first bank-issued cards originated in 1946 as a Brooklyn banker created the charge-it card, these were forwarded to the bank account and then the service or good was released. In post-war times further cards followed and till now there established credit-card providers which issue credit or debit cards also with giving their own credits to people that can be paid back.
Cryptocurrency (2008 till today):
This is the very last money form and the most innovative so far, like Bitcoins, like they invented, are limited in supply and can only be created through the mining process and proof of work they provide a sustainable interface within the blockchain which transactions are scalable and easy to use for peer-to-peer-transactions. It is not a wonder that the cryptocurrency market since the beginnings expanded more and more and several other projects emerged, there are still many projects given however the market will likely sort the not innovative ones out. Cryptocurrency marks the point in the history of money evolution where money advanced significantly from its initial barter exchange system to cryptocurrency. This is a major step and as for now, central banks are looking also into cryptocurrency and blockchain technology to implement their own central-bank-digital-currencies. There are really not many contra-aspects like in the previously stated money forms as cryptocurrency improved all the issues that previously came up and also innovated increasingly above these.
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In this manner, this was my analysis about the evolution of money which is important as the money keeps on shaping as we see it especially in these times with cryptocurrency, it is also not unlikely that these technologies will improve further, and there comes something new that is more applicable and innovative however till now cryptocurrency serves as the highest quality money forms when comparing to the other money forms. Especially it is the case that all money forms still coexist today however mainly not applicable.
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In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day, and all the best to you!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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Central-Bank-Digital-CurrenciesHello,
Welcome to this analysis about Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies in which I will explore the ongoing process by central banks to generate Digital-Currencies that replicate the individual Fiat-Currency, its characteristics, its possible manifestations, and its differences to the classical cryptocurrencies we all know as Bitcoin or Ethereum created in the beginning.
Since Cryptocurrency was invented by the esteemed Satoshi Nakamoto publishing the open-source white-paper about Bitcoin as a completely decentralized Peer-To-Peer Digital-Currency which supply is limited and is generated through mining and the Proof-Of-Work concept many other decentralized cryptocurrencies emerged such as Ethereum or Litecoin that approved a secure and stable way of payment solutions operating within the determined blockchains. This completely new form of currency and the digital interface was watched by critics as well as supporters and a hype created with cryptocurrency enthusiasts accelerating the innovation process in cryptocurrency. On the other side, banks and governments watched the Cryptocurrency development not always with a non-critical eye, and especially in this process central banks took a greater study into the technology and the idea came into the foreground for digital currencies held and issued by the central banks that should replicate the real fiat-money which is printed by the central banks and distributed through commercial banks. The digital currencies that should be issued by the central banks became the name CBDC (Central-Bank-Digital-Currency) and today many countries' central banks started to work on pilot projects and prototypes to launch the digital replicate of fiat money, in some countries they are already launched and implemented in the economy.
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- Comparing The Classical Concept Of Cryptocurrency To The Central Bank Concept Of Digital-Currency
The main characteristics of the classical cryptocurrency like invented in 2009 are that it is decentralized and that its supply is limited while the bitcoins are generated through the mining process there can be no more than 21 Million Bitcoins at all that defines the value of Bitcoin as miners need to improve the technological alignments to rightly mine the Bitcoins and come up with a mining-revenue to keep the process ongoing. On the other side, there is fiat money which is printed in the central bank printing press and which supply can be multiplied by will especially in times of crisis as it was in the last year the money supply increased exponentially by the central banks, this has an inflationary character and comes up with many other issues as in times of crisis the central banks need to print always more and more money as before. Now the fiat money printed by the central banks is issued to commercial banks with zero interests at this time and from there is supplied to the merchants and persons who taking up credits and which account money is held in a bank account as a "digital back-up" by the printed fiat money, the tendency with this bank account money is also to be multiplied by the banks and moved around in the system to be taken for credits so that one holds money in an account while it is used for the other individual's credit. Now as the central banks working on the digital currencies to substitute the fiat money in circulation the biggest difference is that its supply is not limited like it is in Bitcoin or many other cryptocurrencies, as the central bank fiat money can be printed further this is also the case with the upcoming central-bank-digital-currencies. Besides that the central-bank-digital-currencies are not decentral because they are issued by a central authority like the central bank, the system on which the CBDC is settled can be decentral however on a broader scale it is still centralized by the individual central bank, there is still a difference if the CBDC model is indirect, direct or hybrid nevertheless it is always centralized as the intern blockchain is created by the certain central bank. Another factor is also privacy as the public Bitcoin blockchain does not store any private user information, depending on the model with a CBDC this can be very different as there is indeed the possibility that private user information is stored in the blockchain by the central bank. Taking all these assumptions into consideration it comes to the conclusion that CBDCs aren't the same as the classical cryptocurrencies in common sense, it is rather a system that replaces the fiat money with digital money and gives the central bank much better opportunities to handle, store and track it with a faster network and potential storage of data.
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- Examining Models On How Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies Can Function
With the gained assumptions it is important to note that there are different type models under which CBDCs can operate. Every model has its own characteristics and handles money circulation in an altered cycle. Besides that, the different models can have very different effects on the economy and especially on sectors like the banking industry or payment solution providers. Furthermore, the types on how payment data and information is stored differ within these models. It is highly necessary to recognize these concepts to assume how the CBDC infrastructure affects the economical landscape.
The Indirect CBDC Model
Within this model, the central bank keeps track records of wholesale accounts by the commercial bank as an intermediary between the central bank and the persons or merchants. The consumer as the person or merchant has a claim with the intermediary as the commercial bank and handles payments with the commercial bank. In this case, the intermediary handles all the communication with the consumer as retail clients and its net payment information, sending payment messages and storing the data. It would be a similar model to the actual credit distribution that exists with credits given by the central banks to commercial banks and from these distributed to the persons or merchants.
The Direct CBDC Model
The Direct CBDC Model functions differently from the Indirect one as the payments are handled directly between the central banks and the persons or merchants, in this case, receives, stores, and processes the information given by the consumer. This model is much more functional and practicable for the central bank as the commercial banks as intermediaries aren't necessary for the gateway. A full-scale implementation of this model will cause a higher decrease in commercial banks at all of which the sector already struggles, the model would further this process. The model would also set the central bank as the central authority handling all the payment relevant mechanisms with the consumer as persons or merchants.
The Hybrid CBDC Model
In this model the Persons or Merchants have a direct claim on the CBDC with the central bank while an intermediary, in this case, a PSP (Payment-Service-Provider) keeps track of the payments information and handles direct payments, the PSP in this case does not need to be a bank essentially. It is also integrated within that when technical issues come up with failures in the system that the central bank can handle direct payments with the consumers and restore retail balances. This system offers more flexibility at the cost of a more complex infrastructure to operate for the central bank. Besides that, it has a similar negative effect on the banks like the direct model as banks arent necessarily needed for the payment communication.
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It is not unlikely that the development of Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies will keep going within the upcoming times, therefore it is necessary to elevate how these diverging models can affect the actual economy. As many countries moving on with the projects and prosecution of CBDCs these will be realized in a more fulfilled way with a high possibility and it will be an important question on central banks will govern these CBDCs as they aren't decentralized like the cryptocurrency roots they can not be held as a direct comparison to these and are indeed a fiat money replication in digital terms, it will definitely open new doors for the central-banks money policy however what it has for effects on consumers as peoples or merchants is a serious examination.
Thank you, for watching, it was important for me to scrutinize the significance of Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies and elevate a perception to this omnipresent topic.
In this manner what do you have for an opinion of Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies implementation? Let us know in the comments below.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Blueprint to Success: How to Master Trading Sessions & Planning👑 Pre-Trading Sessions & Planning:
🔥 Key Details + Concepts
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(Psychological, Technical & Concepts):
🟠 Psychological:
- Don’t trade if your emotions aren’t aligning with what is on the screen.
- If you’re not super happy about entering, and you don’t fully accept the loss, don’t take the trade.
- Don’t ‘force’ something to work because it won’t.
- Trade as if you are looking for buys and sells in your markup. This removes mental bias, and effectively emotion in trading.
🟠 Technical:
- Cause is the most important factor in trading – find what caused the injection of volume (‘follow the money’). Did it get effectively mitigated? Did it leave imbalance? … Find that block of orders and don’t get liquidated
- The more inducement respected, the more liquidity to take out, the bigger the move
- Zones to trade from must have resting orders to mitigate. Make sure they have inducement above/below (or create it), and they are the cause of structural breaks, demand/supply fails etc
- Start analysing on the daily first! Find the intention of price and follow it
- Mark out S/R – (support becomes resistance levels vice versa) as that level will be liquidated to usually meet our orderblock above/below it
- Previous daily/weekly highs/lows can act as strong structural inducement points
- Price needs reason to move to certain levels – imbalance
- Often when we have a low Phase 2 inducement, we will sweep it’s orderblock as a SMT because of the zone’s large imbalance = lack of inducement
- If you don’t spot the buyers/sellers who got swept before entering, you’ll become liquidated
- Mark out pullback zones too
- If we break our LPOD/S, we are effectively going to run through all mitigated price until the next valid orderblock
- Ensure you wait for your respective time-frame reaction (e.g., don’t look for a 1m reversal from a 4h zone)
- If price taps the outside of a zone but doesn’t enter it, it can still be used as inducement
- We don’t recommend stacking countertrend trades
- A mitigation can be confirmed when price sweeps into its previous range over another small-range inducement.
🟠 Concepts
- The demand/supply that took out the Phase 1 inducement then gets broken confirms a shift in market structure. If it is respected, we can trade a continuation.
- A ‘slight mitigation’ is when price sweeps liquidity into a range, but doesn’t properly mitigate the orderblock where the high-volume orders lie. Even though we may react from there, we can come back to this orderblock and properly mitigate it, using the ‘slight mitigation’ level as a point of inducement.
- It is important for the AR (automatic rally) to ‘fail’ in a reversal range after the B/SC (Buyers/sellers climax) as it often grabs the LPOD/S (the last point of demand & supply), so it is successfully mitigated
- News candles can be targeted high/lows as they don’t have inducement
- Price works with momentum. You will never see something shoot up or down randomly
- Refine zones by excluding the inducement it swept before it
– draw a line through the orderblock from the inducement it swept. This will refine your orderblock to the pure manipulation *has exceptions*
- If an inducement phase isn’t very clean or only sweeps a small range, there will be another opportunity as more manipulation is needed to fuel a larger move
- Weak highs and lows are determined after a leg has been properly mitigated; the 5-15m TF is best to determine an active zone
- A high/low is likely to be targeted when it wicks the other side’s high/low (to sweep) instead of having a candle closing over (BoS)
- The first part of a ChoCh is often formed from Phase 1 inducement getting swept, creating a slight pullback, then breaking it again to hit the refinement
Used Word Definitions:
- LPOD/S – Last point of demand/supply
- ChoCh – Change of character (a sweep of liquidity then a break of structure)
- BoS – Break of structure (a failure of supply or demand creating a price leg break)
- OB – Orderblock (a valid zone to trade from)
- FVG – Fair value gap (a form of inefficiency/price gaps in the market)
- IMB – Imbalance (a form of inefficiency/price gaps in the market)
- IPA – Inefficient price action (imbalance)
- S&D – Supply and demand (the levels of buying and selling)
- IFC – Institutionally funded candle (a candle created by institutions to push price to a certain area)
- IPB – Inducement Pullback (The level where price pullbacks before a continuation)
- PA – Price action (how price is moving)
- B2S – Buy to sell (often seen as a wick to mitigate or sweep)
- S2B – Sell to buy (often seen as a wick to mitigate or sweep)
- AOI – Area of interest (an area of price that is reactive or tradable)
- POI – Point of interest (a specific point where price is reactive or tradable)
- IND – Inducement (placement of liquidity that is used to manipulate traders)
- EQH/L’s – Equal highs/lows
- SMT – Smart money trap (a zone that doesn’t have liquidity under/above it, and gets run, trapping SMC traders)
- MSS - Market Structure Shift (a confirmed shift in the markets direction towards the next reversal zone)
- Vectors – Large-bodied, impulsive candles that are to push price to its purposeful target
- V-SR – V-Shaped Recovery (quick movement of price to enter and exit a zone)
- TF – Time frame
- FR – Failed Reaction (Internal supply/demand failure)
- OF – Order-flow (the movement of money through the market)
- True Zone – The actual orderblock that will be used which holds the high volume or orders
- PDH/PWH or PDL/PWL – Previous daily/weekly high/low
🟠 Colour Codes:
🟠 Time and Price (Times in AEST):
ASIA > FRANKFURT > LONDON > NEW YORK
- Asia: – Asia is important to analyse as it can create the model for New York and London its purpose is to create liquidity above and below its session. Mark the bottom and top to create a range, as well as the midline. Often, price will aim to take a high/low or both (AWS) starting with Frankfurt + London Open. If Asia takes a form of liquidity and is impulsive, a continuation trade can be played.
- Frankfurt: - Frankfurt often prepares London for its main movement of the day. It often does this by taking out the high or low of Asia to create an orderblock mitigation for London, creates more Phase 1 inducement for London to take out, or helps to move price to an already-made valid orderblock.
- London: - When London opens, there is a volatility spike in price. London’s purpose is to attack the liquidity created during Asia. Often, London creates a continuation mitigation after 1.5 hours, but can also contribute to a larger liquidity build-up for New York. Entries that induce + mitigate can be taken at the open (sometimes +30). After 2 hours of opening, we often see a shift in direction.
- Pre-NY: - Before New York opens, we often see an impulsive move that directly contributes to the New York session. Sometimes, we can create a valid zone for New York to play from by mitigating high-volume orders. Most often, we see an impulse in price to move into a higher timeframe orderblock to then become targeted liquidity, or we create more low timeframe reversal inducement to then be swept.
- New York: –We open with a volatile shift of momentum. New York’s purpose is to attack the liquidity created during the London session, or to create a continuation from London. The New York trap usually starts 1 hour after opening and reverses. After 1.5 hours of opening (MMM), we often see a clean mitigation of the ‘correct’ orderblock and liquidate the opening move. Sometimes, New York Open can mitigate the high-volume orders and continue in the correct direction of the day.
- London Close – mitigates the peak of NY open / Reversal for a continuation in NY open direction. Sometimes there is a mitigation-inducement before London Close.
- Magic Minute Mitigations (MMM) - refer to high probability trading times that mitigate active continuation orderblocks. We can best see these 1.5 hours after London and New York Opens – rarely, we can see these 3.5 hours after these opens instead.
In the next post I will continue with my 8-step daily markup process and my Asian session manipulation formulas.
If you found this article helpful, please share it with your friends and leave a comment!
Cheers!
Navigating Volatile Markets Navigating Volatile Markets: Strategies for Turbulent Times
Introduction
Financial markets are no stranger to volatility, with unpredictable twists and turns that can test even the most seasoned investors. However, turbulent times need not be daunting. In this blog post, we will explore strategies to help you navigate volatile markets with confidence, turn uncertainty into opportunity, and make informed investment decisions during challenging times.
1. Stay Informed, Not Overwhelmed
During periods of market volatility, it's essential to stay informed about market developments and economic indicators. However, avoid becoming overwhelmed by constant news updates and opinions. Focus on reliable sources and maintain a balanced perspective.
2. Diversify Your Portfolio
Diversification is a time-tested risk management technique. Spread your investments across different asset classes, industries, and geographic regions. A well-diversified portfolio can cushion the impact of volatility on your overall holdings.
3. Set Clear Goals and Stick to Your Plan
Define clear financial goals and create an investment plan tailored to your objectives and risk tolerance. During turbulent times, emotions may tempt you to deviate from your plan. Stay disciplined and trust in the strategy you have set forth.
4. Consider Defensive Investments
Explore defensive investments, such as bonds, dividend-paying stocks, and precious metals. These assets may provide stability during market downturns and act as a hedge against heightened volatility.
5. Focus on Quality
In uncertain times, prioritize quality over speculative bets. Look for companies with solid fundamentals, stable cash flows, and strong balance sheets. Quality assets are better equipped to weather economic storms.
6. Assess Long-Term Value
Volatility can create buying opportunities. Look for high-quality assets that have been oversold due to market sentiment rather than inherent flaws. Assess their long-term value and potential for recovery.
7. Implement Stop-Loss Orders
Use stop-loss orders to protect your capital from significant losses. Set stop-loss levels that align with your risk tolerance and allow you to exit positions if the market moves against you.
8. Avoid Panic Selling
Resist the urge to panic sell during market downturns. Selling low locks in losses and may hinder your ability to benefit from potential market rebounds.
9. Focus on Risk Management
Adopt prudent risk management practices. Only allocate a portion of your portfolio to higher-risk assets and avoid overexposing yourself to individual positions.
10. Seek Professional Advice
If navigating volatile markets feels overwhelming, consider seeking advice from a financial advisor. A professional can help you assess your financial goals, devise a tailored strategy, and stay on track during turbulent times.
Conclusion
Volatility is an inherent part of financial markets, but with the right strategies and a disciplined approach, you can navigate turbulent times with confidence. Stay informed, diversify your portfolio, and focus on long-term value rather than short-term fluctuations.
Remember, every market cycle presents opportunities. Embrace volatility as a chance to refine your investment approach, grow your wealth, and turn uncertain times into prosperous outcomes.
Happy investing, and may your journey through volatile markets lead you to a more secure financial future!
The Power of Dollar-Cost AveragingThe Power of Dollar-Cost Averaging: Building Wealth Gradually
Introduction
In the world of investing, there's a powerful strategy that enables individuals to build wealth over time without the need for market-timing skills or significant capital: dollar-cost averaging (DCA). This method involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of market conditions. In this blog post, we will explore the concept of dollar-cost averaging and how it can be a valuable tool for building wealth gradually and with discipline.
Understanding Dollar-Cost Averaging
Dollar-cost averaging is a disciplined investment approach that involves investing a fixed dollar amount in a particular asset or investment vehicle on a scheduled basis, such as weekly, monthly, or quarterly. The key feature of DCA is that the same amount is invested consistently, regardless of whether the asset's price is high or low.
The Power of Consistency
Reducing Market Timing Risk: Dollar-cost averaging eliminates the need to time the market, which is notoriously difficult even for seasoned investors. By investing regularly, you spread your purchases over different market conditions, reducing the risk of making ill-timed investments.
Taking Advantage of Market Volatility: DCA allows you to purchase more shares when prices are lower and fewer shares when prices are higher. Over time, this strategy can lead to a lower average cost per share.
Embracing Disciplined Investing: Dollar-cost averaging promotes disciplined investing habits. It encourages you to stay committed to your investment plan regardless of short-term market fluctuations.
Building Wealth Gradually
Regular Contributions: Set a consistent schedule for investing, such as monthly or quarterly contributions. This habit ensures that you continually add to your investments over time.
Automate Your Investments: Automate the investment process by setting up automatic transfers from your bank account to your investment account. This reduces the temptation to deviate from your plan.
Stay the Course: Remain patient and steadfast during market ups and downs. Stick to your dollar-cost averaging plan, as its true power lies in its long-term impact.
The Magic of Compounding
Dollar-cost averaging harnesses the magic of compounding, where reinvested returns generate additional returns over time. The longer you maintain your dollar-cost averaging plan, the more significant the compounding effect on your wealth.
Conclusion
Dollar-cost averaging is a time-tested and straightforward strategy for building wealth gradually and with consistency. By investing regularly and without the need to time the market, you can overcome the pitfalls of emotional decision-making and take advantage of market volatility.
Embrace the power of dollar-cost averaging as your ally in wealth-building, and watch your investments grow steadily over the years. Remember, the key to success is to start early, stay committed, and let the power of compounding work its magic on your journey toward financial prosperity.
Happy investing, and may your disciplined efforts lead to a brighter financial future!
Dividend Growth InvestingDividend Growth Investing - Building Wealth One Payout at a Time
Introduction
In a world of volatile markets and uncertain returns, dividend growth investing has emerged as a popular strategy for investors seeking steady income and long-term wealth accumulation. This approach focuses on investing in companies with a history of consistent dividend payments and a commitment to increasing those payouts over time. In this blog post, we will delve into the art of dividend growth investing and how it can be a powerful tool for building wealth, one payout at a time.
Understanding Dividend Growth Investing
Dividend growth investing involves selecting and holding shares of companies that not only pay dividends but also have a track record of regularly increasing those dividend payments. These companies typically exhibit financial stability, strong cash flows, and a commitment to rewarding shareholders with a share of their profits.
The Principles of Dividend Growth Investing
Dividend Yield: Dividend yield measures the annual dividend payment as a percentage of the stock's current price. Dividend growth investors often seek companies with reasonable dividend yields, balancing income with growth potential.
Dividend Growth Rate: The dividend growth rate measures the annual percentage increase in a company's dividend payments. Investors look for companies with a history of steadily growing dividends, signaling financial health and shareholder-friendly management.
Long-Term Horizon: Dividend growth investing is a long-term strategy. Investors aim to benefit from the compounding effect of increasing dividends over time.
Benefits of Dividend Growth Investing
Steady Income Stream: Dividend growth investing provides a reliable income stream for investors, which can be especially beneficial during market downturns.
Inflation Hedge: As companies increase their dividends over time, investors can potentially beat inflation and preserve the purchasing power of their income.
Potential for Capital Appreciation: Companies that consistently grow their dividends often attract investors, leading to potential capital appreciation in the stock price.
Key Strategies for Dividend Growth Investing
Research and Analysis: Conduct thorough research on companies' dividend histories, financials, and future growth prospects. Look for companies with sustainable dividend growth potential.
Diversification: Diversify your dividend growth portfolio across different sectors and industries to reduce risks associated with individual company performance.
Reinvestment: Consider reinvesting dividends back into the same dividend growth stocks or other investments to maximize the compounding effect.
Dividend Aristocrats: Explore companies that are part of the "Dividend Aristocrats" or similar lists, which consist of companies with a history of consistently increasing dividends for many years.
Conclusion
Dividend growth investing is a disciplined approach that rewards patient investors with a growing income stream and potential capital appreciation. By selecting companies with a commitment to increasing dividends over time and holding them for the long haul, investors can build wealth, one payout at a time.
Embrace the principles of dividend growth investing, do your due diligence, and let the power of compounding dividends work its magic on your investment journey. With the right mix of dividend growth stocks, you can create a robust and resilient portfolio that supports your financial goals for years to come.
Here's to the journey of building wealth through the steady flow of dividends, and may your investment endeavors be filled with prosperity and success!
Value InvestingValue Investing - Unearthing Hidden Gems in the Market
Introduction
In the world of investing, where trends and market sentiments often drive decision-making, value investing stands out as a timeless strategy embraced by legendary investors. Value investing involves searching for undervalued assets that have the potential to deliver substantial returns in the long run. In this blog post, we will delve into the art of value investing and how it allows investors to uncover hidden gems in the market.
Understanding Value Investing
Value investing is a strategy that seeks to identify assets trading at prices below their intrinsic value. These assets may be temporarily undervalued due to market fluctuations, unfavorable sentiment, or lack of attention from investors. Value investors believe that the market will eventually recognize the true worth of these assets, leading to price appreciation and potential capital gains.
The Principles of Value Investing
Intrinsic Value Assessment: Value investors analyze the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of a company or asset to estimate its intrinsic value. Fundamental analysis involves evaluating financial statements, earnings, cash flows, and competitive advantages.
Margin of Safety: A key principle of value investing is the concept of a margin of safety. Investors aim to buy assets at prices significantly below their calculated intrinsic value to provide a cushion against potential errors in estimation.
Patience and Long-Term Perspective: Value investing requires patience and a long-term perspective. It may take time for the market to recognize the undervalued asset's true potential and drive its price higher.
Benefits of Value Investing
Potential for High Returns: If the market eventually recognizes the true value of an undervalued asset, value investors can reap substantial returns on their investments.
Less Susceptible to Market Fluctuations: Value investing tends to be less affected by short-term market trends and sentiments. Investors focus on the underlying fundamentals, which remain relatively stable over time.
Contrarian Approach: Value investors often take a contrarian approach, going against prevailing market sentiments. This allows them to find opportunities that others might overlook.
Key Strategies for Value Investing
Stock Screening: Use stock screening tools to identify companies with low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, low price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and strong financials that indicate potential undervaluation.
Focus on Dividends: Seek out companies with a history of paying dividends, as this may be a sign of financial stability and value.
Avoiding "Value Traps": Be cautious of companies facing structural challenges that may not recover their intrinsic value over time.
Conclusion
Value investing is a time-tested strategy that has proven successful for legendary investors like Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham. By focusing on the underlying fundamentals of undervalued assets and exercising patience, value investors can unearth hidden gems in the market and build a portfolio with the potential for significant long-term returns.
Embrace the principles of value investing, conduct thorough research, and let your discerning eye lead you to those overlooked opportunities. As you refine your value investing skills, remember that great investment opportunities may sometimes be hidden in plain sight.
Happy hunting for hidden gems in the market, and may the strategy of value investing guide you to prosperous investment decisions!
Inflation vs Innovation Can the Markets Handle the HeatGlobal markets face contradictory forces in 2023. Inflation still simmers as central banks tighten money supply worldwide. Geopolitical friction continues while economic growth likely slows ahead. Yet technological transformation charges ahead, with artificial intelligence poised for explosive improvements. Investors and policymakers must stay nimble in this uncertain environment.
After plunging painfully in 2022, stocks have rebounded with vigor so far this year. This despite raging inflation and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates. Hefty liquidity efforts in China likely buoyed prices. Investors may also have grown too pessimistic amid still-sturdy corporate profits. But sentiment could sour again if supply chain snarls resurface.
In bond markets, yields continue reflecting dreary growth expectations after last year's surge. The inverted yield curve especially screams pessimism on the near-term economy. Meanwhile, the Fed's bond portfolio shrinkage has yet to rattle markets. This implies the Fed's quantitative easing and tightening have limited impact on actual money supply, defying popular perception.
On inflation, early 2023 figures show it easing from 40-year heights but still well above the Fed's 2% bullseye. The Fed remains leery of declaring victory prematurely. Taming inflation sans triggering severe recession is an epic challenge. Geopolitical wild cards like the Russia-Ukraine war that evade the Fed's grasp will shape the outcome.
Amidst these crosscurrents, technological forces advance relentlessly. The frantic digitization around COVID-19 now gives way to even more seismic innovations. The meteoric success of AI like ChatGPT provides a mere glimpse of the transformations coming for healthcare, transportation, customer service and virtually every industry.
The promise appears gargantuan, with AI generating solutions and ideas no human could alone conceive. But the warp-speed pace also carries perils if ethics and safeguards fail to keep up. Mass job destruction and wealth hoarding by Big Tech could ensue absent mitigating policies. But wisely harnessed AI also holds potential to uplift living standards globally.
For investors, AI has already jet-propelled leaders like Google, Microsoft, Nvidia and Amazon powering this tech revolution. But smaller firms wielding these tools may also see jackpot gains, as costs plunge and new opportunities emerge across sectors. That's why non-US and smaller stocks may provide superior opportunities versus overvalued big US tech.
In conclusion, the global economic and financial landscape simmers with familiar threats and novel technological promise. Inflation may moderate but seems unlikely to vanish given lingering supply dysfunction and distortions from massive stimulus. Stocks navigate shifting sentiment amid rising rates and demand doubts. And machine learning progresses rapidly into a future we can now scarcely envision.
Nimbly navigating such turbulence requires flexibility, tech savviness and philosophical courage. Responsibly steering AI's development is a herculean challenge, to maximize benefits and minimize pitfalls. Individuals need to stay skilled while advocating protections against job disruption. Policymakers face wrenching tradeoffs between growth, inflation and financial stability - all compounded by geopolitics.
Yet within uncertainty lies opportunity for those poised to seize it. The future remains ours to shape, if we summon the wisdom and will to guide technology toward enriching human life rather than eroding it. The road ahead will be arduous but need not be hopeless, if compassion and conscience inform our creations.
TOP 10 Money MYTHSAre you tired of hearing the monotonous refrains of personal finance advice that seems to pervade every medium? “Create a budget,” “spend less than you earn,” – it's an endless loop. It is time to dissect and debunk 10 persistent myths that shroud the domain of personal finance.
1. Debt is Always Detrimental. Debt is often depicted as inherently negative, but this is not always the case. It is crucial to differentiate between unwise debt, such as credit card debt, over-extended payments, and high-interest loans, and strategic debt which can be beneficial in creating value over time.
2. Credit Cards Are to be Avoided. Credit cards themselves are not inherently bad. When used judiciously, they can provide cash back, purchase insurance, discounts, and travel benefits. The key is disciplined usage and ensuring that payments are managed properly.
3. Retirement Planning Can Wait. Procrastination in retirement planning can be costly. The longer you wait to start saving, the more you will need to set aside later to achieve the same financial goals. Early investment taking advantage of compound interest is much more effective.
4. Wealth Requires a High Income. A high income does not guarantee financial security. It is not just about how much money you earn, but how effectively you manage and invest it. There are cases of individuals with modest incomes amassing significant wealth through frugal living and intelligent investing.
5. Saving Alone Leads to Wealth. Relying solely on savings is an inefficient path to wealth. The power of investing, especially in appreciating assets, is critical for wealth accumulation. Investments tend to offer higher returns over the long term compared to traditional saving methods.
6. Money Alters Your Personality. It is a common belief that money changes people, often for the worse. However, money typically amplifies pre-existing traits rather than altering a person’s character. Financial success or failure does not inherently change who you are at your core.
7. Investing is Synonymous with High-Risk. Investing involves risks, but so does not investing. With inflation, the value of money decreases over time. By not investing, you may risk having insufficient funds in the future. A balanced investment portfolio can mitigate risks and facilitate financial growth.
8. Homeownership is Essential. Owning a home is often considered an essential financial achievement, but it’s not always the best option for everyone. Homeownership comes with costs such as down payments, property taxes, maintenance, and insurance. Sometimes renting can be a more economical and flexible option.
9. Investing is Only for the Wealthy. This is a common misconception. Investing is a means by which individuals can build wealth, regardless of income level. Even modest investments, if managed wisely, can grow over time and contribute to financial stability.
10. Money is Meant to Be Spent. While it’s true that money is a medium of exchange, how you allocate your spending is important. Excessive spending on non-essential items can hinder financial growth. It’s important to focus on acquiring assets that can generate income and contribute to long-term financial security.
In summary, it is essential for anyone engaged in personal finance to critically examine common assumptions and develop strategies based on informed decision-making.
Unlocking the 6 Levels to Financial Freedom
If you’re living paycheck-to-paycheck or stuck in a job you don’t love just to pay the bills, it can be easy to feel as though you’re financially trapped. But financial freedom doesn’t need to be elusive—with some focused and consistent effort, you may be able to achieve financial freedom sooner than you expected. Below, we’ll discuss the different stages of the financial freedom journey
Stage 1: Dependence ✔️
The “dependence” stage of financial freedom can last from your childhood and teen years even into your adult life. If you rely on a parent, a significant other, or someone else to pay your living expenses, you’re in this stage. Fortunately, as soon as you become solvent—that is, when your income exceeds your expenses—you’ve moved on to stage 2.
Stage 2: Solvency ✔️
Solvency comes when you’re able to meet your financial obligations on your own. (If you’re partnered, you can still be considered solvent even if your partner’s income is necessary to meet your total household expenses—since you’re supporting two or more people instead of just yourself.)
Stage 3: Stability ✔️
You’ll transition from solvency to stability once you’ve created an emergency fund of a few months’ expenses, repaid high-interest debt, and are continuing to live within your means. While stability doesn’t require you to be debt-free—as you may still have a mortgage, student loans, or even credit card debt—you’ll have a savings buffer to ensure that you won’t go into debt if you encounter an emergency or unexpected expense.
Stage 4: Security ✔️
You’ll feel financially secure once you’ve eliminated your debt (or have enough assets to pay off all your debt) and could weather a period of unemployment without worry. At this point, money is not just a safety net, but also a tool you can use to build the future you’ve been planning. At this point, you may consider investing in other assets besides retirement accounts — a taxable account, rental real estate, or even your own small business.
Stage 5: Independence ✔️
Once your investment income or passive income is enough to cover your basic needs, you’ve achieved financial independence. A financially independent person can retire at any time without worrying about how to cover their costs of living, even if they may have to downsize their lifestyle a bit.
Stage 6: Freedom ✔️
The line between financial independence and financial freedom can be a fine one; for many, it’s simply the difference between having enough to cover your needs or having more than enough. Once you have financial freedom, you don’t need to pinch pennies (unless you want to), and you can take more risks with money you’re willing to lose.
Now that you know the stages of financial freedom, think about where you are. How much do you need to get to the next level?
What do you want to learn in the next post?
How to Build Wealth (Even During Monetary Tightening)One question that many investors are asking right now is: How can I build wealth during monetary tightening?
To answer this question, one must understand how the money supply works.
The Money Supply
The money supply refers to the total amount of currency held by the public at a particular point in time. M2 is one of the most common measures of the U.S. money supply. It reflects the amount of money that is available to be invested. M2 includes currency held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, travelers’ checks, savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds.
The chart above is a time-compressed view of the money supply. The time scale has been compressed such that the money supply appears as a vertical line with clusters of dots. Each dot represents a quarter (or 3-month period).
During periods of monetary easing, when the central bank accelerates increases in the money supply, the dots stretch wider apart, as shown below.
During periods of monetary tightening, when the central bank decelerates increases in the money supply, the dots tighten together. In rare cases, the central bank can reduce the money supply to fight inflation, in which case the dots can retrograde.
The central bank rarely reduces the money supply because it usually results in economic decline.
The Money Supply and The Stock Market
Since the money supply reflects the amount of money that can be invested in the stock market, the stock market tends to track the money supply. As the money supply (M2SL) grows so too does the stock market (SPX).
The chart above shows that despite the stock market’s oscillations, over the long term, the growth rate of the stock market tends to track the growth rate of the money supply. The stock market goes up, in large part, because the money supply goes up.
The chart below is from the book Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel, Professor of Finance at the Wharton School. The chart shows that compared to other asset classes, stocks generally perform the best over time.
Stocks generally perform the best over time because the growth rate of the stock market generally tracks the growth rate of the money supply fairly well. Investing in the stock market is therefore an efficient means of preserving wealth over the long term.
One will always be better off investing in assets that grow in price at a faster rate than the rate at which the money supply grows than investing in assets that do not. When the money supply decreases during periods of monetary tightening, as is happening right now, only assets that outperform the money supply can produce positive returns.
Knowing these facts, we can reach the following conclusion: Generally, investing in the stock market does not intrinsically build wealth, it merely efficiently preserves wealth over time against the perpetual erosion of an ever-increasing money supply. To build wealth one must invest in assets that grow in price faster than the rate at which the money supply grows .
Preserving Wealth vs. Building Wealth
As noted, to build wealth one must invest in assets that move up in price faster than the rate at which the money supply moves up.
Investing in assets that move up in price over time, but at a rate less than that which the money supply moves up over time may seem like a good investment to an investor if the investor is making money, but such investments are not typically wealth-building. These investments are merely some degree of wealth-preserving.
When the price of an investment increases over time at a rate less than the money supply, that investment causes a loss of wealth, despite giving the investor the perception of increased wealth. A loss of wealth occurs because the investor’s purchasing power is decreasing over the period of time which the investment is held.
Purchasing power is the value of a currency expressed in terms of the number of goods or services that one unit of money can buy. It can weaken over time due to inflation. To keep things simple, let’s assume that other elements of inflation, such as money velocity, remain fairly constant and that an increasing money supply is the main cause of inflation.
Let’s consider some case studies.
Case Study #1: REITs
Suppose an investor, John, invests his money in real estate investment trusts (REITs), specifically BRT Apartments Corp.
John is a smart investor and does research before investing. In his research, he sees that BRT has decent profitability and a fair valuation. He also sees that BRT has decent growth potential.
After analyzing fundamentals, John does technical analysis. He sees the below chart which shows a decades-long bull run.
(Chart has been adjusted to include dividends)
He thinks to himself: This asset is a money maker. Despite periods of corrections, price generally goes up over time.
John then buys shares of BRT as part of a long-term investment strategy. John has done his due diligence and indeed he is right that, over the long term, his investment is likely to make quite a bit of money.
However, if John invests in this asset, although he will make money, he will lose wealth or purchasing power. That’s because the Federal Reserve is increasing the money supply at a rate that is faster than John’s investment grows.
Here’s a chart of BRT adjusted for the money supply (and adjusted to include dividends).
Adjusting the price of BRT by the money supply shows a clear downtrend over time. This means that while BRT is growing in price and its investors are making money, BRT’s investors are generally losing purchasing power over time by investing in this asset because the central bank is increasing the money supply at a faster rate than the rate at which BRT's price grows.
By increasing the money supply exponentially over time, central banks trick people into believing that they are building wealth by investing when in fact most investments are, at best, some degree of wealth preserving. Only a minority of assets outperform the money supply, and usually, that outperformance is temporary.
In the era of monetary easing, during which central banks drastically increased the money supply using various monetary tools, perceived wealth skyrocketed. However, actual gains in purchasing power or improvement in living standards, as measured by increased productivity, largely did not occur.
You may be thinking that I simply chose a bad investment to demonstrate my point. While BRT is actually a great investment relative to most other assets, let's move on to the second case study: an asset that has skyrocketed in price in recent years.
You will find that even for assets that have outperformed the growth in the money supply, the period of outperformance is usually temporary.
Case Study #2: Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft is an example of a stock that has outperformed the growth rate of the money supply in recent years. Below is a chart of MSFT adjusted for the money supply.
The chart shows that although the growth in MSFT's price generally outperforms the growth rate of the money supply, it undergoes prolonged periods of underperformance when investors can lose wealth. This wealth loss effect cannot be fully ascertained by looking only at a chart of just MSFT's price. It only becomes fully apparent when one compares the stock's price to the money supply.
Tech stocks have generally outperformed the money supply since the Great Recession. They were excellent wealth-building investments. However, now that the central bank has begun monetary tightening, interest-rate-sensitive tech stocks are especially likely to decline. Investing in these assets while the money supply is decreasing, and while interest rates are surging, may result in loss of wealth.
Case Study #3: Utilities (XLU)
The chart below shows how well the utilities sector performed over the past two decades.
Let’s adjust the chart to the money supply. (See chart below)
You can see that XLU moved horizontally relative to the money supply, meaning that it merely preserves wealth to varying degrees but does not generally build wealth over the long term.
By including the money supply in our charts, we remove the confoundment of monetary policy and elucidate the true intrinsic growth potential of assets.
Case study #4: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)
Look at the chart below which shows ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), managed by Cathie Wood, relative to the money supply.
Cathie Wood’s investment choices have actually caused a loss of wealth since the fund’s inception in 2014. You can see in the above chart that price is slightly below the center zero line, which means that wealth has been lost by those who invested in ARKK in 2014 and held continuously to the current time.
Finally, check out the below chart of SPY relative to the money supply. The entire post-Great Recession bull run in SPY was merely a recovery of the wealth lost since the Dotcom Bust, over 2 decades ago. The stock market is ominously again being resisted at this peak level.
The below chart shows that the stock market has given back much of the wealth built since the pre-Great Recession peak.
In summary, wealth-building requires investing in assets with a growth rate that is greater than the growth rate of the money supply. To accomplish this, an investor should compare an asset against the money supply before choosing to invest. Assets that continuously outperform the money supply over the long term are better investments than those that do not. One can use standard technical analysis on the ratio chart to determine candidates that are most likely to outperform the money supply.
In the face of high inflation, central banks must reduce the money supply. A decreasing money supply pulls the rug out from under the stock market. When the money supply is falling, corporate earnings and the stock market typically fall as well.
Inflation
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world increased the money supply by an unprecedented amount.
Throughout the course of its entire history up until the pandemic, the U.S. money supply moved up predictably within a log-linear regression channel, as shown in the chart below. Before the pandemic, the log-linear regression channel had an exceptionally high Pearson correlation coefficient (over 0.99), which suggests that the regression channel was reliably containing the money supply’s oscillations over time.
When the pandemic hit the global economy came to a halt. The Federal Reserve increased the money supply by a magnitude that was so astronomical that it went up vertically even when logarithmically adjusted. (See the chart below)
As a thought experiment, let’s assume that the log-linear regression channel above is valid and that data are normally distributed (typically they are not in financial markets).
If it were the case that such a sudden, astronomical increase in the money supply occurred totally randomly, the event would be a 10-sigma event (meaning 10 standard deviations away from the mean). The chance of such a rare event happening totally randomly is so small that it would occur about once every 500,000 quadrillion years. Since this is much longer than the age of the known universe, a 10-sigma event is essentially equivalent to an event that will statistically never happen. Thus, no one was prepared for the action that the Federal Reserve took.
By exploding the money supply by this extreme amount and flooding the market with so much newly created money, central banks instantly made everyone feel wealthier by giving them more money, but this action would eventually make everyone less wealthy by destroying their purchasing power as inflation ensued.
Once high inflation begins, it can be hard to stop. When inflation stays high for too long the public begins to expect more of it. The public then alters its spending and saving habits. The public also begins to demand higher wages to keep up with high inflation. This creates a negative feedback loop: When workers receive higher wages to keep up with inflation, workers can afford to pay inflated prices which keeps inflation higher for longer. As workers get paid more, keeping demand high, companies also charge more for their goods and services. Eventually, workers again demand higher wages to keep up with yet even higher prices.
At every stage of inflation, the best strategy for central banks is to downplay its true severity. This is because the easiest way to control inflation is by managing the public’s perception of it. The hard way to control inflation is to raise the cost of money – interest rates – which in turn induces economic decline, and which can cause financial crises as highly indebted consumers, companies and governments cannot afford higher interest payments.
Bonds
Government bond yields reached a record low during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The chart below shows that interest rates – or the price of money – reached their lowest level in the nearly 5,000 years for which records exist.
Since the start of 2022, interest rates have surged higher, breaking a multi-decade downtrend, and ushering the market into a new super cycle where interest rates will likely remain higher for the long term.
Interest rates and the money supply are inextricably linked. Few people know why an inverted yield curve predicts a recession. An inverted yield curve reflects the destruction of money. When the yield curve is inverted, banks can no longer profitably borrow at short term rates and lend at long term rates. Bank lending creates the most amount of money. An inverted yield curve is a market perversion that does not occur naturally but occurs only through central bank action. Inverting the yield curve is a highly obfuscated tool that central banks use to decrease the money supply. Furthermore, as we discussed before, since the stock market generally tracks the money supply, an inverted yield curve is a warning that the stock market will fall in the future. Recently, the yield curve (as measured by the 10-year minus the 2-year U.S. treasury bonds) inverted by the most on record.
Below is the chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). TLT tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years.
As you can see from the chart above, which excludes the past two years, it looks like TLT has been a great investment over the past two decades. (For this chart, I included dividends. TLT pays out dividends that derive from interest payments on its bond holdings.)
Look at the chart below to see what happens when we adjust the chart for the money supply.
In the chart above we see that since its inception TLT moved horizontally relative to the money supply. What this means is that holding TLT over this period was not wealth-building, but it was good at preserving wealth. Its price moved up in perfect lockstep with the money supply.
Now, let’s see how TLT performed in the past two years.
As we see in the chart above, until 2021, an investor who held long-term U.S. government bonds would have been preserving their wealth and shielding it from the erosion of perpetual increases in money supply. However, as interest rates on government debt surged higher as central banks fight high inflation, bond investors are now seeing major wealth destruction. In a stable monetary system, investing in government bonds should preserve wealth, since if it fails to do so, no one will buy bonds to finance the government.
The situation is also concerning when we examine investment-grade corporate bonds (LQD) relative to the money supply.
This chart of investment-grade corporate bonds adjusted for the money supply shows that we should be concerned about the current state of even the most high-grade corporate bonds. We see that the value of investment-grade corporate bonds over time, inclusive of their interest payments, has fallen off a cliff relative to the rate at which the money supply is increasing. This chart suggests that those who invested in corporate bonds have recently lost a lot of wealth. Until the current trend reverses, who would want to invest in corporate bonds? This is a problem for corporate finance.
Below is a chart of high-yield corporate bonds (HYG), (which are riskier than investment-grade corporate bonds), as compared to the money supply.
You can see from the chart above that all the wealth built by investing in high-yield corporate bonds since the Great Recession has been completely wiped out.
What I am about to explain next will be somewhat dense. Look again at the two charts below which show investment-grade corporate bonds relative to the money supply and high-yield corporate bonds relative to the money supply.
Recall that bond prices move inversely to bond yields. Thus, if we flip these charts of corporate bond prices, we will get corporate bond yields relative to the money supply.
Now let’s think. These charts show that the yields on corporate bonds are moving up faster than the supply of money. Corporate bond yields reflect the amount of money that corporations must pay on their debt. In other words, the amount of money that corporations will have to pay to service their debt is moving up faster than the money supply. As noted previously, the money supply speaks to corporate earnings since corporations can only ever earn some subset of the total supply of money in the economy. Thus, if the money supply decreases, as it is now, corporate earnings will likely decrease as well. If the interest on corporate debt is moving up much faster than the money supply, and the money supply which reflects corporate earning capacity is decreasing, what might this say about the future?
Mortgages
In the chart below, I analyzed the current median single-family home price in the United States adjusted by the current average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (as a percentage). I then compared this number to the money supply.
This chart gives us a sense of whether or not the Federal Reserve is supplying enough money to the economy to support the current expense of home ownership. As you can see, price is rapidly approaching the upper channel line (2 standard deviations above the mean), which signals that home ownership is the least affordable it has been since the early 1980s – the last time the upper channel line was reached.
If one believes that the 2 standard deviation level is restrictive, then one may conclude that there is not enough money being supplied by the Federal Reserve to sustain such high home prices as coupled with such high mortgage rates. If the Federal Reserve does not pivot back to a less tight monetary policy soon, then there is a high probability that a housing recession will occur in the coming years.
Perhaps what is more alarming is the below chart, which shows the EMA ribbon. The EMA ribbon is a collection of exponential moving averages that tend to act as support or resistance over time. When the ribbon is decisively pierced it reflects a trend change.
We can see in the above chart, that for the first time since the mid-1980s, we have pierced through the EMA ribbon. This could be a signal that a new super cycle has begun, whereby a higher interest rate environment will persist alongside high inflation for the long term, potentially making homes less affordable for the long term. This is one of many charts that seem to validate the conclusion that inflation will remain persistently high for the long term.
Commodities
In the below chart, the price of commodities is measured as a ratio to the money supply.
This chart informs us that commodity prices have broken their long-term downward trend relative to the money supply.
The chart above shows commodities as a ratio to the money supply side-by-side an inverted chart of the S&P 500 as a ratio to the money supply. It appears that the ratio of commodities to the money supply reflects an inverse relationship to the S&P 500 and the money supply. Think about what these charts may be indicating. Could they suggest that in the face of a shrinking money supply, more money will flow out of the stock market into increasingly scarce commodities? In a deglobalizing world facing conflict, climate change, and declining growth in productivity, it’s unlikely that commodity prices will return to the extremely undervalued levels seen in 2020.
One commodity, in particular, deserves its own discussion: Gold.
Gold
During a monetary crisis, the usual winner is physical gold.
Since the dawn of human civilization, gold has played an important role in the monetary system. As a scarce commodity gold is often perceived as inherently valuable.
In his 1912 book, The Theory of Money and Credit, Ludwig von Mises theorized that the value of money can be traced back ("regressed") to its value as a commodity. This has come to be known as the Regression Theorem.
Once paper money was introduced, currencies still maintained an explicit link to gold (the paper being exchangeable for gold on demand). However, the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971 to curb inflation and prevent foreign nations from overburdening the system by redeeming their dollars for gold.
Currently, gold is extremely undervalued when priced in U.S. dollars. The current fair dollar-to-gold ratio is currently about $7,200 per ounce of gold. This number is produced by dividing the year-to-year increases in the money supply by the yearly production of gold in ounces.
Eventually, a monetary crisis will occur, and according to Exter’s Pyramid, investors will scramble for gold, which may force fiat currency to regress back to a gold standard to stabilize markets.
Bitcoin
In this final part, I will give a few thoughts on Bitcoin, as it relates to the money supply.
Below, you will see that when charted as a ratio to the money supply, Bitcoin formed a nearly perfect double top in 2021.
This chart could have warned traders that Bitcoin had topped in November 2021 given Bitcoin's inability to achieve a new high relative to the money supply. This shows that one can use the money supply in their charting as an additional layer of technical analysis.
In the below chart, we see how Bitcoin's market cap is moving relative to the U.S. money supply.
Bitcoin’s yearly chart is a bull flag relative to the money supply. There are very few assets outside of the cryptocurrency class that present as a bull flag relative to the money supply on their yearly chart. What might this chart reveal about Bitcoin's tendency to disrupt central banks' ability to conduct monetary policy?
The Federal Reserve’s inability to stop people from converting dollars into Bitcoin to store wealth is a problem that will likely result in Bitcoin and other forms of decentralized finance coming under the greater scrutiny of the U.S. federal government. In the future, I plan to write a post on investing in cryptocurrency. In that post, I will explore Bitcoin and blockchain technology in much greater depth.
Final thoughts
To build wealth one must invest in assets that grow in price faster than the money supply erodes purchasing power. To become a successful investor, one must revolutionize one’s perception of money and understand that cash – or central bank notes – are worth nothing more than the belief that the government will persist and remain solvent. To build wealth an investor’s goal should not be to make as much cash as possible, rather an investor’s goal should be to convert cash into assets that grow faster than the money supply and to accumulate as much of such assets as possible.
🍀Trading VS Investing🍀
🦥When it comes to making money in the finance world, there are two main paths to choose from: trading and investing. Both of these approaches involve buying and selling financial products in order to generate a profit, but there are some important differences that are worth considering if you're trying to decide which strategy is right for you.
🦧Let's start with trading. Traders are, by definition, people who make frequent short-term transactions in the financial markets. Their goal is to take advantage of fluctuations in market prices in order to make a quick profit. This means that traders are constantly monitoring charts, news sources, and other indicators in order to identify opportunities to buy and sell within a matter of days or even hours.
🐙On the other hand, investors are typically focused on the long-term potential of an asset. They're interested in buying assets that they believe will appreciate in value over a longer period of time, such as several years or even decades. While investors do need to keep an eye on the markets to ensure that they're not buying into overvalued assets, they're generally less concerned with short-term volatility than traders are.
🦋So which approach is right for you? Well, that depends on a variety of factors, including your risk tolerance, your time horizon, and your financial goals. If you're the type of person who loves the thrill of the chase and doesn't mind taking on a bit of risk, then trading might be a good fit for you. On the other hand, if you're more interested in building long-term wealth and aren't too worried about short-term fluctuations, then you might be better off with an investor mindset.
🐝Of course, it's also important to keep in mind that there's no one-size-fits-all solution when it comes to trading versus investing. Some people might find that a hybrid approach, where they mix elements of both strategies, works best for them. Others might prefer to focus on developing a mastery in one area or the other.
🐞Ultimately, the most important thing is to do your research, evaluate your own financial situation, and be honest with yourself about what you're hoping to achieve. With the right approach and a little bit of luck, either trading or investing can be a lucrative way to grow your wealth over time.
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Market efficiencyWhat is market efficiency, how does it affect earning potential?
What does "market efficiency" mean, and how does it affect the chances of making money?
Today, we'll talk about how well the crypto market works. We'll look at how quickly it takes in new information and how you can make money from price changes. We are also looking to the near future, when efficiency will go up and there will be less cash and inefficient niches.
How Does the Market Work?
The speed and accuracy with which information about projects and assets is added to the price shows how efficient the market is. This happens almost right away in markets that work well, but it takes a long time or doesn't happen at all in markets that don't work well.
For instance, the US stock market in 1906 is not very good at what it does. Then there was an earthquake in San Francisco, and only three days later, the shares of the Pacific Railroad fell apart. The news from east to west moved too slowly.
In 2022, the oil market works well. As soon as OPEC and other countries talked about how they could work together to set a high cap on oil prices, the price went up. That is, no one even raised the ceiling. The price goes up right away because OPEC+ lets this happen.
In general, the idea of how well a market works is a theory. Economists have been arguing about whether or not it works for the past 50 years. This idea comes in three different forms.
Weak Efficient Market Hypothesis: All market information from the past is included in the price of an asset.
Average Efficient Market Hypothesis: The price of an asset includes all market information from the past and all publicly available information from the present.
Strong Efficient Market Hypothesis: The price of an asset takes into account all market information from the past, public information from the present, and insider information.
We won't keep going back and forth between ideas. The article only needs to know that efficiency is a measurement of how quickly and accurately the market takes in information. Another question is where this information came from.
What determines how well the market works?
The most important thing is just one thing: the number of trades and how liquid the market is. The market will be more efficient if there are more transactions, and less efficient if there are less.
From the amount of money in the market, other things grow: the speed of transactions, the infrastructure, and the speed at which information comes out. But in general, they show up on their own when there are enough investors for someone to want to make money on investment infrastructure.
For instance, the elite art market doesn't work well. Not a lot of artists charge a lot for their paintings, and not a lot of people are willing to buy them. There, news moves slowly from person to person. The price is not set by the way the market works. Instead, it is set by haggling.
This also works in the stock markets. For "blue chips" like Apple, which are traded by the most investors, the difference in price between buy and sell orders is very small. This means that at any time, the market can very accurately figure out the fair value of the security.
Spreads widen where there is less liquidity, and it can be hard to figure out what a fair price is: it "walks" in the spread gap.
Here, by the way, the ideas of people who believe that markets take in information so quickly that it is impossible to make money on them fall apart.
Everything is simple: if markets are really so efficient that you can't make money by having more information, traders and capital would have left long ago, liquidity would have collapsed, markets would have become inefficient again, and capital would have returned.
But we don't talk about the theory here.
If you are interested in cryptocurrencies, why do you need to know this?
Yes, it is useful even if you are not interested in cryptocurrencies.
By definition, it's hard to make money in markets that work well. If the market is working well, it quickly takes in new information and reacts to what's going on around it. This means that any results of fundamental or technical analysis have already been factored into prices by other market participants. You can buy and sell things, but it will be like a casino.
It's easier to make money when markets don't work well. The less efficient a market is, the more likely it is that you can learn more about the other people in it, act faster, and make more money.
Can cryptocurrency be seen as a market that works well?
The article was written so that this math could be done. No, is the short answer. In one of the most recent studies, experts compared Bitcoin prices to the prices of gold, the S&P500, and the USD/EUR currency pair, which are all well-known assets.
The rate of price change was multiplied by the market capitalization to figure out how well the market worked.
It turned out that the crypto market is much smaller than traditional markets, but here information is "absorbed" much more quickly. This is because trading goes on 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and information spreads quickly. Also, it's not hard to start trading.
But trading in BTC is not as good as trading in traditional assets. It is clear that the efficiency of most other currencies is even lower, and somewhere in the NFT segment, it is much lower.
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✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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6 REASONS (WHY TO LEARN FOREX TRADING)OANDA:XAUUSD
6 Reasons why you need to learn Forex Trading
There are many reasons why trading forex can help individuals grow their wealth. Here are just a few reasons why so many people are choosing this market:
1 .Earn extra income. Supplement your current income. However, be wary that trading forex is not as easy as it seems. It requires a lot of learning and patience. It is important for you to know that it takes time to build up your skills to successfully trade in the forex market.
2.Earn money regardless of the economic situation. Even though the economy is suffering, unemployment is high and businesses are closing down, you can still make money by trading in the forex market. In forex trading, you can still earn by trading “short” or short selling.
3.Choose your own trading schedule. The forex market operates 24 hours a day for a 5-day trading week. This gives traders more opportunities to manage their portfolio. This also means you can choose when to trade unlike in the stock market that operates only 6 hours per day.
4.Low transaction costs. Unlike other types of investments, forex trading has very minimal transaction costs since there are only a few middlemen. To trade forex, you really only need a basic computer and a good internet connection.
5.Trade anywhere. Forex trading can be done anywhere in the world at any time! As mentioned earlier, all you need is a reasonable laptop and a stable internet connection and you’re good to go. You could earn money while travelling the world from your laptop, or make successful trades on your smartphone while at the same time you’re having dinner at your favorite restaurant.
6.Tools can be used to anticipate price movements. Because of the large popularity and high liquidity of the forex market, price movements are easy to forecast without anyone capable of controlling it. Various tools can be used to predict and capitalize on the price movements these using recurring patterns to signal us into successful trades.
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Funds and money in cryptoFunds and money in crypto
First, let's determine why money are required for the project.
Money . The first and most evident thought that occurs to mind. A startup exchanges a portion of its stock or tokens (often a soul) for digital evergreen paper. Is it feasible to grow your business without these funds? Certainly, you can, but why? When a team has operational cash flow, it can stop pursuing profits from day one and instead focus on developing a high-quality product that will bring a lot more profit for everyone in the long run.
Expertise . Every big VC has a whole team of specialists that can assist a new or not-so-young startup with a variety of difficulties, including business model development, tokenomics, marketing, and cost reduction. Even if a developer is a talented coder, this does not guarantee that he or she can create a lucrative firm.
Connections . The fact that funds invest in dozens of initiatives necessitates communication with hundreds of thousands of professionals worldwide. There may be an intriguing project in the investor's portfolio with which one might form a relationship or attract customers.
Quality rating . When a cool fund invests in a firm, the rest of the market receives a signal to keep an eye on them. If stock experts who evaluate hundreds of companies every month opt to invest in the team, then the startup's concept and potential are rather strong. While this does not alter the fact that even market experts occasionally miss the mark.
We have therefore determined why we require a financial investment and will proceed. The following important question is how much was invested in the project.
It would appear that more is better. However, this is not always the case, at least not in our experience as bold speculators.
When 100-200 million dollars are invested in a token, this indicates that the minimum FDV is already trying for a billion dollars, making it considerably more difficult for early investors to obtain Xs with sensible prices on the listing. Therefore, purchasing such enormous items at the beginning of the market is a mediocre idea, however participation in their activities is an excellent idea.
On the other hand, if they invest too little ($100-$300k), this may indicate that they don't trust much in the progress just yet; other funds invested three kopecks just in case. With this alternative, however, there is a substantial potential for X, as was the case with My Neighbor Alice, who, after privately accumulating two lyams, moved to binance and made their early investors and players wealthy. I should emphasize, however, that this is a relatively unusual occurrence, which occurred owing to the bull market's enthusiasm.
Ideally, we are interested in anything that falls between the preceding two criteria. A $5-$20k investment gives ample room for X's on the listing, and is sufficient to form a really cool team and develop the product.
✅ THE ULTIMATE BEGINNER'S GUIDE TO INVESTING 👊There are a lot of myths surrounding investing. Some say that it is too complicated for a beginner, and you can't figure it out on your own. Others portray the image of a successful investor who travels all the time and does almost nothing. So, let's find out how things really are.
What Is Investing?
Investment is the long-term investment of funds, finances and other capitals in a variety of instruments in order to generate income in the future. Furthermore, there are two types of investments in relation to objects of investment. The first type is investment in the real sector (real investments). However, the subject of today's article is related to the second type of investment - financial investments, not investments in the real sector. Let's dot all the i's and and cross the t's to define with you what we mean by financial investments.
Financial investments are long-term investments of finances in securities, shares, bonds, mutual funds, precious metals and other derivative instruments of securities.
Financial investments are also called portfolio investments. Portfolio investing means that an investor can invest in several financial instruments at once, thus forming a specific "portfolio of investments. A portfolio helps an investor to diversify his risks, that is, even if there is a completely failed investment, the investor is able to offset his losses at the expense of more successful instruments from his portfolio.
Structure Of The Financial Investment Market
Before considering investing and financial instruments, it is necessary to understand how this market is structured. The structure of the financial market can be divided into three main segments:
-Stock market
-Debt market
-Foreign exchange market
The stock market is where shares of various issuers and other derivatives that give the right of ownership are traded. The debt market, also called credit market, is characterized by investments in debt instruments, such as government and corporate bonds. It is generally believed that the debt market is the most risk-free and conservative, but low-yielding way of investing, the yield on which will not exceed, and often coincide with the yield on a bank deposit. Here much depends on whose bonds you invest in and at what point. The third and extreme segment in this classification is the foreign exchange market, where it is possible to purchase contracts (both options and futures) for the purchase of currency in the forex market.
In addition, in recent years, a new market is beginning to take shape - the cryptocurrency market. Due to the popularity and rise in the value of Bitcoin, this market has expanded significantly in 2016-2017 and more and more types of cryptocurrencies are coming to the market.
Why Should You Invest Money?
The question of why to invest in various financial assets often arises in people who are just beginning to become interested in ways of making passive income. One could say that this skill belongs to the obligatory skills of a person who wants to come to success, just as one used to need to know how to speak French or ride a horse.
Another thing is that the vast majority of people spend almost all of their money on daily expenses - food, clothes, rent, and often credit as well. This is a kind of dependence on the bank, the state, and the place of work. And professionalism in one area or another is not yet a guarantee of good profits.
Everyone in the modern world just needs to learn how to manage their finances and how to multiply them. Almost everyone periodically thinks about saving and achieving financial freedom, providing a peaceful old age, and investing in the future of their children.
A certain role is played by the state, allocating pensions to elderly people from the pension fund, in which accumulated amounts of deductions from wages for a lifetime. However, the size of pensions is known to all - it is simply impossible to provide a decent old age for them. Many pensioners who have worked all their lives live on the brink of poverty.
Why is the situation different in developed countries? Older people travel around the world and live life to the fullest. And these are not celebrities or oligarchs - they are ordinary average people.
The answer lies in the fact that investments play a huge role in people's lives in developed countries. Up to 80% of Americans invest in shares of large companies and receive dividends on them.
The question of why they need to invest does not arise there - they start investing at a young age. It is enough to look at the figures:
In the US the volume of investments in investment funds is twice as much as the volume of bank deposits;
In Europe, the volume of investments in investment funds is five times less than the volume of bank deposits.
Moreover, do not forget that the investor gets an opportunity to receive dividends from shares - investment income, which in the long run may exceed salaries by several times.
Investing For Beginners: The Power Of Compound Returns
In simple terms, compound return is the re-investment of profits earned during previous successful investments. The process can be represented as the use of dividends, interest paid, and other income distribution options.
Depending on the share of reinvested funds from the total amount of profits, a distinction is made between full or partial reinvestment. It is impossible to predict in advance the profitability of reinvestment, but the investor can control the process by adjusting the timing, amount, selected instruments, and external circumstances.
Reinvestment is the practice of using dividends, interest, or any other form of income received as a result of investments, to obtain new profits through the purchase of shares, units, or other assets, instead of just spending what is earned.
Let's take a closer look at the principles of reinvestment and the factors that affect its result.
If you're planning to reinvest profits to increase your overall income, consider how to do so with minimal risk of loss while earning a steady income. To increase the chances of successful reinvestment, stick to three basic principles:
Use only available funds to invest. If you're not sure you'll need some or all of the money you're investing shortly, don't reinvest profits. For reinvesting, take as much money as you can set aside for the long term.
Diversify your investments. The golden rule for investors is to diversify their capital by diversifying their financial instruments. A balanced portfolio is the best protection against sudden market movements and losses. While one asset falls in value, the rest grow and generate income.
Make sure that investments generate income without exposing your entire capital to excessive risk. A professional investment manager can help with the selection of tools and investment strategies if there is no possibility to study the intricacies of stock trading independently.
As in the case of initial investment, reinvestment should be made competently, choosing the safest and most promising assets, and avoiding excessively risky transactions.
Any action by an investor must produce an ultimate return. You can receive dividends and spend them on your personal needs, or use the extra profits to multiply your invested capital.
Sometimes the external conditions for investments are not so favorable, and an investor prefers to wait out a dangerous period, withdrawing all assets into currency. Such behavior was demonstrated by Warren Buffett, 89, who decided in 2020 to get rid of assets, including investment bank Goldman Sachs, American carriers, and go into "cash", despite positive market dynamics and a relatively weak dollar. This decision analysts explain the preparation of the guru of investments to the stock crash, incomparable even with 2008 when Buffett has maintained an optimistic view of U.S. assets.
The decision on the advisability of reinvestment is based on some factors:
Inflation rate. If money is depreciating rapidly, reinvesting means trying to catch up with inflation while trying to maintain the same capital value. In a hyperinflationary environment, it makes no sense to wait for an investment to yield a limited return or to result in a loss due to the loss of value of the money invested.
Affordable financial instruments. The recent top assets for reinvestment include real estate, currency, and deposits. As the stock market develops, the center of attention has shifted toward stocks, bonds, and indices. U.S. stocks are growing in popularity, with different stock exchanges providing access to them.
Risk appetite. Some companies prefer to close their positions or limit investments to reduce possible negative consequences. Others are prepared to keep risking for the sake of profitability.
Every financial instrument has its profitability and risk limits. The higher the projected return on reinvestment, the more justified this step is.
The situation in the economy can facilitate or limit opportunities for investing and reinvesting. The worse things are in the country's economic sector, the less reason to reinvest profits.
In addition to objective factors that influence the decision to reinvest income, there are subjective features of a person and his circumstances that make him agree or refuse to make further investments.
A person invests his earnings where he can earn the most profit. As a rule, the decision to reinvest is made based on an analysis of alternative returns. If a person buys a car for $100,000 instead of opening a bank deposit with the profits he earns, it means that in addition to that amount over the 5 years the car will lose the amount of unaccrued interest - for example, 5% for each year. And instead of owning a car worth $100,000, one could earn $128,000.
Timing The Market: What Investment Returns Can You Expect?
On the whole, we can say that the world economy is growing at about five percent a year. Of course, in dollars.
Slightly lower should be the currency yield from investments in bonds, but their use is assumed only as a reserve, not strategic growth.
Is it possible to earn more? Yes, if something important happens: technological advances, breakthroughs in new industries - and the investor is at the root of it. Those who first appreciated the prospects of switching from coal to oil in the past are some of the richest clans on the planet today, such as the Rothschild clan. You do not have to go far, it was enough to assess the prospects for the development of electronics and, in particular, computer technology thirty years ago - and we can say a billion is already in the pocket.
Let's look at examples, of how much could be earned on different types of investments. The average annual return on the S&P 500 over the past ten years is about 13.6%. Thus, if an investor were to put into his portfolio the same securities that make up the index, he would get a much higher return than on a deposit in a bank.
During the same period, credit institutions attracted deposits at 4-5 percent. And in the bond market for government securities, the yield was, as we see from the previous example, 5.2 percent per annum. The yield on corporate bonds was even higher - 6-10 percent, depending on the reliability of the companies.
Thus, having placed money through a broker at the exchange, the investor could count on the bond market, if not twice, but one and a half times more than in the bank. At the same time, of course, such investments are not subject to deposit guarantees.
But, on the other hand, if you buy bonds from major companies, their existence is ensured at least access to raw materials. Behind them, unlike credit institutions, there are usually real production assets that generate stable revenues.
And what about other types of investments? Analysts of the real estate market say that properties have risen in price by more than 16% over the year. But these figures should be treated with extreme caution:
Firstly, realtors always, under all circumstances, claim that prices are going up, even if the trend is the opposite.
Secondly, the posted proposals - it is not the real price of an object, to sell something, the cost must be discounted, which remains at the level of non-public agreement between the seller and the buyer. The real estate market is much less transparent and not as liquid as the stock market.
In addition, the cost of admission varies significantly. Investments in real estate most often require at least a few hundred thousand, if it is not a collective scheme, while for the purchase of the same bond on the New York Stock Exchange just a thousand dollars is enough.
It must be said that one of the most profitable types of investment in 2021 was simply buying foreign currency. The dollars rose by more than 20% and the euro by almost 30%.
This suggests that those who invested money in instruments denominated in foreign currencies managed to make the most money on investments. Even though the interest initially looked more than modest.
How Much Money Should Beginners Invest?
The fact is that any investment activity involves a certain risk. Therefore, before engaging in investment activities, it is necessary to create the proverbial financial safety cushion.
This should include all mandatory payments, medicine, food, and even entertainment. Otherwise, an unsuccessful start in investing and the difficulties you will encounter in the absence of a "cushion" will most likely discourage you from continuing to learn to be an investor, and it rarely works out well for anyone the first time.
So, you already have a financial safety cushion. Now you need to invest the first sum of money. But the size of that amount will predetermine the type of instruments available to you. If the bonds have a face value of 50 dollars (please note that we will not take into account brokerage commissions, because our discussion is about the principle of approach to the first investment), then having this very $50, you can go and buy bonds? No, not really! The minimum investment required to purchase a single bond is about $1,000, though bonds are generally sold in $5,000 increments.
You can buy shares for $500 since their prices can start from $10. However, it would be rather unethical of us to recommend to a beginning investor to start investing in such a risky instrument as stocks. The dividend yield on them is not guaranteed, and no one can promise an increase in the price.
This is why our logic leads us to believe that one should begin investing with an amount of about $1000-$3000. Moreover, we advise such a trick. Put every "extra" amount of money on a separate account, not a brokerage account, but a time deposit account with the ability to deposit and withdraw partially, you can even do it on the same account where you "lay" a safety cushion. As soon as you manage to accumulate "extra" $3000, i.e. you don't need them for other vital necessities, you have to withdraw them, transfer them to the brokerage account and buy the next portion of the securities.
Yes, stocks are cheaper and sometimes sold by the lot, but we wouldn't recommend starting with them. Start filling your portfolio with corporate bonds, and try investing some in stocks, let's say 10% of your capital. 10% is an insignificant amount in case of loss, but in case of high returns, can significantly raise the average return of your portfolio.
How Can You Start Investing?
When you finally decide to start investing, you might be wondering what steps you should take. Here are our recommendations:
Decide on an investment horizon. When it comes to bonds, the stock market has a conventional division into short-term securities and long-term securities. For example, Federal Loan Bonds are limited to a specific term (3, 5, 7, and even 10 years). Shares, on the other hand, are considered indefinite assets. They exist as long as the company operates and remains public.
Choose an investment instrument. Decide where best to invest your money. An investor decides which securities he will buy, whether he will invest in business development, entrust his savings to a mutual fund and management company or simply open a deposit in a bank.
Be guided by risk and return. Fixed-income securities (like federal bonds) are considered less risky than stocks and bonds issued by businesses.
To make it easier for you to choose the right investment instrument, first determine your risk profile. This is the type of behavior you have in the financial market. It will take into account your goals, desired returns, investment horizon, and risk tolerance. Depending on your risk attitude, your risk profile may be conservative, rational, or aggressive. Conservative investors prefer low-risk instruments with small returns, aggressive investors are willing to risk capital for the sake of high potential returns, and rational investors choose the golden mean.
The Beginner's Guide To Where To Invest Your Money
By definition, it is necessary to invest in something. There are a great many options where you can invest your capital. Among the most common instruments, we should note the following:
-shares
-bonds
-investment funds
-real estate
-own business
Let us consider different ways to invest your capital according to the risk appetite.
Instruments for the conservative investor
A conservative investor who is not prepared for possible losses can include low-risk instruments in his investment portfolio: bonds, bond exchange traded funds (ETFs), real estate investment funds, deposits, as well as structured products with full capital protection and ISH.
Most often, it is recommended that beginning investors work with conservative instruments at first, and then add other instruments to their portfolios over time.
Instruments for the aggressive investor
Aggressive investors, i.e. investors who are ready to risk a considerable part of their capital for the sake of high potential profitability, invest their entire portfolio in stocks, derivatives (futures, options) and structured products without capital protection.
Such investors often have extensive experience in the stock market, a large amount of capital and will be able to survive a failure painlessly.
Instruments for the moderate risk investor
An investor with a moderate risk profile combines high-risk instruments with conservative ones. Adding conservative instruments to the portfolio reduces risks, while high-risk instruments allow for higher returns. The classic scheme: 50% of the portfolio in conservative instruments, 50% in high-risk instruments.
In addition to the above, the portfolio may also include precious metals in an investor-friendly form, equity ETFs (due to the greater number of shares in one ETF, equity funds are less risky), structured products and ISMs with partial capital protection.
With knowledge of all available financial instruments, each investor can choose the most appropriate ones for his level of expertise and experience, as well as for the comfortable riskiness. The main thing is to approach investments consciously, correlating each instrument to your financial plan and investment objective.
Potential Risks Of Investing
Risks can have an internal or external nature and are not always predictable. Their main types are:
Liquidity risk - the risk that interest in an asset will plummet and the value will be well below the purchase price;
Inflation - decrease in purchasing power and loss of liquidity of all assets;
Currency risk - decrease in the value of assets that are related to foreign currency;
Legal risk - change of risks as a result of changes in the regulatory framework.
There is also the possibility of force majeure, for example, man-made or natural factors. As a rule, they are stipulated in the contract with the investor as separate clauses. Other risks can be adjusted if you constantly monitor changes in the global and domestic financial markets. Another rule that can help reduce the likelihood of losses is the creation of an investment portfolio and its timely adjustment.
Still, there are some ways to reduce the possible risks.
It is easier to manage risks at the planning stage of a portfolio. It's impossible to reduce risks to zero, but a few simple principles will keep your investors and their capital as safe as possible:
Invest evenly in different types of assets. If you choose to invest in securities, invest in different areas.
Don't invest the last of your money. Always leave savings-a "safety cushion." If your assets depreciate, no one will pay you insurance.
Examine projects and assets carefully before investing. Invest in projects that have positive feedback from past investors.
Do not work with those who promise you huge earnings with no risk.
Do not give in to emotions. Act decisively and sensibly, without panicking at the slightest price movement.
Set yourself a limit on the maximum losses. Let's say you choose 25%. If your assets fall in price by 25%, you will sell them to avoid even greater losses.
The key to successful investing is to choose quality assets (reliable stable securities). You should not give in to gambling and invest all of your capital in risky projects.
What To Look For When Choosing An Investment Broker
Before deciding which broker will provide you with services, decide on your investment objectives: have you already decided what markets you are going to enter, and what assets would you like to trade? Before taking any step in investing, it is better to define your goals precisely. Now let's see what to consider when choosing a broker.
Step 1: Check the license
You need to start by checking if your broker has a license. Central banks regularly check the compliance of brokers and can revoke the license if any violations are found. If the license is revoked, the broker will suspend its work and must return the invested funds to the clients.
Step 2: Gather information from open sources
Familiarize yourself with the broker's website. It will be good to check the organization's data on financial performance. A little dive into the history of the company will not be superfluous. Check if there have been any legal proceedings, malfunctions, license suspensions - and for what reasons.
Check what has been written about the broker in the industry media, but do not forget to do fact-checking, i.e. pay attention to the reliability of the source and double-check the data.
Step 3: Check the fees and commissions
Brokers receive a commission on the amount of a transaction. Study the rates on the websites of different brokers. Large organizations usually offer several rate plans. To choose the most appropriate one, determine in advance what markets you plan to trade (stock, futures, over-the-counter) and how often.
Brokers may charge not only transaction fees, but also commissions for depositing and withdrawing funds, using a trading platform, submitting phone orders, and other fees. In addition, it is important to remember the existence of a subscription fee - if there is one, the broker will earn even in the absence of transactions. Consider custody services, which may be fixed and included in the brokerage fee or may vary depending on the number of securities.
Step 4 . Evaluate the convenience of the service
If you are planning to use a trading terminal, i.e. software for making transactions at the exchange - look at what kinds there are and how they work, which one is offered by the broker and whether you understand its interface.
Brokers now have mobile applications for trading. If they are available in the demo version - download and try it, in this way you will understand if the interface is convenient and if you feel comfortable working with the application.
Step 5: Check out the education and analytics sections
Training materials, investment ideas, analysis, and research articles and forecasts are useful for beginners and more advanced investors alike. Many brokers now offer articles, webinars, podcasts, video courses, and more to clients. This can be another factor that will make you pay attention to this particular organization.
Beginner's Tips To Get Started With Investing
It is impossible to completely avoid risk while investing in the financial market. Therefore, the investor is faced with the task - to minimize possible losses, at an optimal level of profitability concerning the goals and horizons of their achievement. For this purpose, studying the experience of famous investors and financiers is suitable. Here are a few tips to help avoid unnecessary mistakes.
Discipline
Even with minimal investments, a sequence of steps, analysis of the situation, and regular additions to the portfolio will lead to the desired income. Do not relax when you get the first earnings - it is better to reinvest them to achieve the goal as soon as possible.
Persistence and calmness
Everyone's journey is a series of ups and downs. Investors are no exception. A cool mind and control of emotions will not allow you to make mistakes in a critical situation. And the accumulated experience will help to avoid their repetition in the future.
The right environment
Communication with like-minded people will put you in the right mood, and monitoring market information and not only - will help you to navigate faster in the situation and make the right decisions. Reading professional literature, visiting topical forums and social networking pages - all will form your thinking.
Constant learning
The world does not stand still, and the world of investments is no exception. Self-education, observations of experienced colleagues, and reading financial literature will expand opportunities and open new promising directions.
Mistakes of beginning investors
It is not possible to avoid mistakes altogether - as in any business in which you are just starting. However, they can be minimized.
Lack of a safety cushion.
No one can guarantee your success in investing. If unforeseen circumstances arise, you must have a safety cushion of 3-6 months' salary.
Lack of funds for the beginning
Often brokers offer to begin from the minimum amount, say 300 dollars, however, such investments without additional permanent deposits will not be effective.
Lack of basic education
After studying, say, three books on the securities market and an economics textbook, many people start to feel self-confidence in the market. This is where the first serious errors begin, such as underestimating the risks or choosing sub-optimal instruments. Remember - knowledge must be gained, updated, and constantly expanded.
The desire to get rich quickly
In the search for super-profits, private investors can often meet crooks and all sorts of fraudsters on their way. A reasonable assessment of the prospects of income and the choice of well-known intermediary companies will reduce the risks as much as possible.
Using substandard sources
Sources of quality information are not difficult to find - to date has written many useful books and created a huge number of training materials.
MONEY MANAGEMENT: The MOST Important Aspect of TradingIf you are a professional trader or plan to become one, Money Management is your #1 job. You could be the best chart reader or statement analyzer in the world but if you have poor money management you will still fail. In order to succeed you first have to last, and to last in the trading business you must be able to handle risk and manage it accordingly.
How you handle Money Management comes down to a few simple things:
Risk limits
- This consist of knowing your risk per trade, your max drawdown, and buying power limitations.
○ Risk per trade: This is the amount you are willing to lose if the trade goes against you and stops out (remember to always have a stop loss). Many traders refer to this as Risk Units or simply 'R'. This should be a defined amount that does not vary based on emotion. If you do use different risk for different trades you should have that clearly defined in your trading plan otherwise each trade should be the same. Risk per trade should be around 1% for experienced traders and $10 for new traders as they work towards slowly raising risk with consistency.
○ Max drawdown: This is the max amount you are able to lose per timeframe. For example, a day trader may have a max drawdown of 3R per day, 7R per week, and 13R per month. Max drawdown demands that if you lose that amount in that timeframe you are to be done trading until the next one. This helps traders from spiraling out of control and blowing up a trading account.
○ Buying Power Limitations: Knowing how many trades you are able to take at one time will help define your strategy.
Expectations
- This consist of knowing your expectancy and timeline
○ Expectancy: Your trade expectancy is the most important stat in all of trading. It tells you what you expect to make per trade. In order to properly manage risk you have to be sure that the strategy is worth it. The expectancy stat is how you do just that. For more info about expectancy check out my post on it here
○ Timeline: Everything takes time. Trading is no different. Having a realistic expectation about your timeline and how much you are going to make is a critical element in helping traders stay focused on their goals and not fall into a get rich quick scheme. If you expect your trading career will take 3-5 years to become profitable you will manage your money much better than someone who expects full time profits in under 1 year.
Yourself
- This consist of knowing your personality and trading plan
○ Personality: What is your personality like? Are you a jittery person or are you robotic. Knowing this will help build a management that you can trust and are able to follow.
○ Trading Plan: Make sure your trading plan fits your trading style. You have to take many things into consideration here such as time constraints, goals, and personality. It takes time to figure out what works for you.
If you can determine how to handle these three factors then you will be well positioned to not struggle with money management. After you have the fundamentals written in your trading plan all it comes down to is staying disciplined and following the rules set for yourself. Clearly define your limits, have an expectation, know thyself.
Thanks for reading, follow @Jlaing for more educational post about Money Management, Trading Stats, and more. I also stream a stock day trading chat room every morning at 9:15 EST right here on TradingView, come check it out and say what's up.