Gap Fill Psychology of Market ParticipantsI know of a lot of traders who only trade gaps due to their high predictability. Whether the move is up or down, the emotions of trapped traders are the same.
If you are part of the range that is trapped, you are only thinking about one thing, how do I exit this trade with as little loss as possible?
The graph above shows that there are too many people trapped above to fit into one small candle. As soon as the price approaches the range, those willing to take a bigger loss get on the life boat first. Those who are holding out to break even continue to hope that the price will go back into the range. When they realize that the price is not coming back into the range, that's when their emotions kick into to hyper drive and they realize the price may never come back into the range.
The thoughts are: This is a scam! Why does this always happen to me! Of course the price would reverse here, I have the worst luck! OMG what if this is the start of a crash!
I usually don't post ideas on gaps, but below you can see the gap idea that I posted for Danaher, a company that made a COVID test that produces results in under 4 hours. The price came right back down to the gap and reversed. Sometimes gaps fill, and sometimes price only reaches the tip of the gap. Two very distinct areas to set stop losses for your trades.
Gap
The Importance of Gaps in Technical AnalysisThree types of gaps: Breakaway, Runaway or Measuring Gap and Exhaustion Gap.
Breakaway gap:
1.At a completion of an important price pattern and generally the breaking of a resistance occurs on a breakaway gap
They sign the beginning of a significant market move
2.Breaking of a major trendline, in a reversal signal can also see a breakaway gap
3.They occur on heavy volume
4. Heavier are the volume, less likely the gap will be filled
5.The gap could be filled (generally not all the gap)
6. Upside gap they can work as support areas for subsequent market corrections
7. During an uptrend, it is important that prices do not follow below the gap, otherwise it is a sign of weakness
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19.2.2020 - Bitcoin (BTC / USD)Hi Traders!
Today we look at a bit specific bitcoin analysis. It will be about bitcoin but on CME futures exchange. Have you heard of CME gaps?
Many people are starting to talk about CME gaps. How do these gaps actually come to existence? There are two options:
CME doesn't trade futures over the weekend and is off. However, crypto exchanges normally work at weekends, so the first way is that there is a strong movement at the weekend and we open Monday at a totally different value than we closed on Friday.
The second way is that bitcoin simply has such a strong up/down movement that it flies through the order book and creates a GAP.
GAP acts as a magnet on the graph. Many people know about this, but they don't know the logic behind it. In the first case (the weekend), there will be many unfulfilled orders at that point. After a strong movement, the graph later gets tired and still comes after these orders. Of course, this does not work 100%, but in the vast majority of cases, it does.
We currently have a GAP blank at a level of $ 8,500. It's extremely difficult to determine whether this gap is filled or not. There came a wick, but exactly to the edge. If the GAP is not completed in a given week, it will usually only be completed after a certain cycle has been completed. Will it be so?
May the crypto be with you!
Looking for a shortWSP had a massive run up yesterday, gaining over 10%. I love seeing when a stock is overextended it just gives me more reason to short it, the mean of WSP is -0.19% so there more negative days than positive. Based on the data its a normal standard deviation of 68%, therefore im looking to trade between $2.19 and $1.78, lets see how it reacts between $2.060 and $1.92.
EW Analysis: Wave structure Suggests Limited Downside For BTCHello traders!
After that deeper corrective decline called double zig-zag W-X-Y pattern on Bitcoin , it's time to take a look at potential support levels.
We decided to take a look at Bitcoin dominance ( BTC .D) against the ALT dominance (OTHERS.D), where we clearly see a corrective decline in wave 4 that can find support soon, ideally around previous wave »iv«, 38,2% Fibonacci retracement and 14.00 – 13.50 area. So, seems like BTC Dominance will come back, which can be supportive for Bitcoin , especially if ALTs are looking for the potential support or bottom, but according to dominance, BTC should be still doing it better than ALTs!
We also decided to take a look on BTC Futures chart, because it's more accurate than those from exchanges. As said above, we are tracking a double zig-zag W-X-Y corrective pattern, which can be approaching the end soon, ideally once BTC .D/OTHERS.D chart finds support. From technical perspective, previous wave 4 and 61,8% Fibonacci retracement are actually ideal support zone and if we also consider an open GAP from May, which usually acts as a reversal point once it gets filled, then we should be really aware of a potential bounce around 7000 area, specifically 7400 – 6300!
As always, the count always needs to be confirmed, so we will be watching very closely when/if comes into the support zone . And, if BTCUSD is really going to rebound in strong and impulsive manner later, then we will be looking for longs, but until then we have to patiently wait!
Trade smart!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Btc -Gap Trading StrategyGap Trading Strategy Rules-How To Trade Gaps
1. You need to choose a currency pair with a high level of volatility. btcusd is a good example but any currency pair that forms a weekend gap should also be good.
2. When the trading day starts on Monday, look to see if there is a gab. Make sure that the gap is at least 5 times the average spread for the pair. For example, if the spread is 3 pips, make sure that the gap is 15 pips or above. Anything less would be considered irreverent
3. If you see that Monday’s candlestick open is below the Friday’s close then the forex gap is negative and you should open a Long position at market price.
4. If you see Monday’s open is above the Friday’s close the forex gap is positive and you should open a Short position at market price.
5. You can apply two stop loss options: (a) apply no stop loss at all INITIALLY but as price moves in favor by say 50 pips, place stop loss above high or low of the Monday Candlestick when it closes (b) Place stop loss above/below nearest swing high/swing low the you can find in 1hr timeframe or 4 hour timeframe.
6. Just 5 minutes before the market closes on Saturday, (e.g., 5 minutes before the end) you need to close your trade.
How to trade a gap? (strategy, short term 1 minute chart)1 we have to analyse what kind of gap was it. ( runaway, breakaway, exhaustion)
2 current gap on a 1 minute chart is a Breakaway, as it has broken through a short term trend line,
3 when we have a breakaway gap, the gap close is less likely, so we're waiting for a consolidation that will nearly fill the gap, in our sample it's 50% Fibonacci area.
4. we're placing a limit orfer to catch a better price
5. in case if the order has not been hit, we're waiting for earlier confirmation of our signal to manually enter a trade.
6. in case if the gap trade has been missed, we can use a gap as a compass for a future trades (short term), for example, current potential target can be a stop order trade, but I will explain it later.