US Dollar under potential threat as de-dollarization sets in.In this screencast, I'm looking ahead for potential moves, possibly south in the US-Dollar. This is about preparedness.
In the video I explore emerging geopolitical and macroeconomic issues that are taking place.
The US-Dollar strength has big influence at this time on:
1. Commodities
2. Metals - especially Gold and Silver
3. Oil
4. Stock markets in the US and elsewhere.
5. US-Dollar currency pairs.
- and more. This thing is big!
There is reliable information about a silent forex war happening largely unseen as China, Russia and Japan are giving up US debt, and moving into Gold and Crytocurrencies. I don't do predictions, so I'm unable to say what this would mean for the future.
Do not take my word for it - check out this stuff on reliable information channels (unable to give further information here - but PM me if you wish).
Index
Are Index Funds overrated?What's up guys, YoungShkreli in the building
Warren Buffett has said that when he dies he wants his family's money to be put into an index fund. Warren Buffett and it seems like everyone else these days is in love with the index fund. I think buying an index fund is stupid - that's right stupid (sometimes).
What is YoungShkreli on about? I mean, does he really think he knows anything? He's an idiot we all know that!
Well guys, I don't mind if anyone thinks I am an idiot because I am not a genius and I am not an original thinker here, I am just applying what I've read and understand.
Here's the deal, my brother and I did the calculations recently (seriously we actually do that) and we found that the average pe ratio of the top american companies was about 23. What does that mean to us? Well, the two books that I base my value investing ideologies (indeed warren buffet does too) are: The Intelligent Investor and Security Analysis. In those books it says that it is UNACCEPTABLE to be buying stocks above ~20 pe ratio and I agree. This doesn't mean you will lose money every time you do, it just means it's not a good strategy.
So, by Warren Buffet's own logic, the index funds are currently not worth investing in because they are overvalued. Full stop. So why does he keep telling people to buy index funds??? (hint: it's not because he is evil) It's because they are generally speaking good investments in the long run. Warren Buffett tells us this because he wants us to think in THE LONG RUN and not about speculating in short moves. It's truly a wise ideology and practical advise, but it's the dumbed down version of the truth.
My job here is not to talk down to you, it's to give you sound advice based on what I know.
SUMMARY:
Index funds are a great option for people because they are diverse and they seem to work in the long run, but the bottom line is that you can't buy something that is overvalued no matter what it is, it just doesn't make sense to do so. Let's not forget, the economy could crash 50% and it could stay below its all time highs for 20 years - what would that mean for you? A bad time.
TL;DR:
Index funds are sometimes overvalued - now is one of those times.
Good luck bros,
Young Shkreli
HYPERBITCOINIZATION: dollar purchasing power down 94% since 1914Purchasing power ( PP -25.00% ) is a measure of strength of a currency. It represents a quantity of goods & services that can be bought by a unit of currency. Since 1914 the purchasing power of the US dollar -0.89% is down 96 %.
The calculation is simple. We take the consumer price index ( CPI 0.24% ) for the USA and divide every value by the value for our base year (1914), then multiply by 100 to get a percentage:
PP -25.00% = CPI_i / CPI_base * 100
The CPI 0.24% is itself a measure of economic strength and its rate of change forms the basis of inflation . From Wikipedia: "The CPI 0.24% is a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are collected periodically."
Since the introduction of a de facto system of free floating fiat currencies in the early 70s, the decline has been slow but persistent 3.66% . It looks very much like an asymptotic decay, where the value will go to zero over an infinite 2.39% amount of time. Inflation may effect the rate of decline, but it seems that the natural process in this case is decline.
NASDAQ The Perfect TrendThe market has been running up since the beginning of 2017. If we traded based on Ichimoku indicator, we could make good profit. You can see 7 long trades and possible entry levels. The main thing you have to note: Ichimoku is a trend indicator. It must be used only with trend market conditions. When markets are in range, there will be a lot of false signals. It does not mean that Ichimoku useless, it means that you use wrong tools. I use DMI indicator for understanding market conditions. If ADX line rises or it's above 20 level, we have trend market conditions and we can trade based on Ichimoku signals. If ADX line is below 20 and falls, it's time to do nothing. As for RSI, it's good for confirmation price reversals from Ichimoku lines.