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Natgas

Nov 9,22-NG-Get ready to go long folksNG has dropped a hell of a lot this week already, not sure how much more it can drop. I'm looking at Friday to get into a Long trade...if not then Sun night or Mon morning next week. Why? COLD WEATHER!! It's coming...damn cold weather across the U.S. Friday starts cold weather here in Toronto...in Alberta we already have snow on the ground. And next week in the U.S. it's gonna start getting quite cold, at least for U.S. standards. So I'm thinking price action will probably go back up. I still have my Buy Order at 7 waiting for some profits. I will put in an order maybe at 6, but I'm hoping to get in at 5.7 on a dip in price, sometime before the end of this week. Stay safe all. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
9
WTI oil - Global oil demand is set to fall with deeper recessionIn the recent past, we abstained from setting price targets for the short and medium term. Meanwhile, we became focused on the long-term price target of 70$, which stays in place as we continue to be bearish on USOIL. Our view is based on the deepening recession and falling oil demand. Yesterday, the IEA Executive Director, Faith Birol, said in his interview with Bloomberg during the COP27 summit, "The recent decision of OPEC+ to cut the production by two million barrels a day was definitely not helpful." Additionally, he said that this move by the cartel was fueling inflation in developing countries and may require a "rethink". If his words come true, the world could see temporary stabilization of USOIL prices between 80$ and 90$. However, all depends also on Joe Biden, who currently does not support more drilling activity. Since the stance of the U.S. administration might quickly change (with an even deeper recession and end of midterms) and send prices much lower, we pay close attention to the energy dispute between the U.S. and OPEC. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD show signs of exhaustion. DM+ and DM- are bullish but due to cross each other. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the hourly chart of USOIL and simple sloping support/resistance levels. Interestingly, the immediate sloping support was broken to the downside, which is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
14
Taf's Gun to the HeadTrade Idea : Sell Nat Gas at market Reasoning: broke down from the medium term trenline and retested it with rejection so looking for bearish continuation to target previous resistance which becomes support at 6.300. Entry:6.690 TP:6.305 SL:6.858 RR:2.29 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by Signal_Centre1
Nov 7,22-NG Winner Again-1000 pt profitWhat a beautiful open last night for NG - It had a massive Gap Up where in my last post to you I said I was looking for another 700 pt profit closing at 6.7. Because of the Gap Up I was able to close my Buy Order at 7. Buy at 6 and close at 7 is a 1000 point profit - NICE :-) Last up is my first Buy Order from about a month ago at 7. I'm looking again for a 700 pt profit, but depending what price action is looking like I might close it out at 7.5, we shall see. Anyway, 3 for 3 on some decent profits over the last few weeks - congrats to all who have been following my trades. Stay safe and take care. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
2
The Bogeyman in Futures TradingNYMEX: Dutch Natural Gas ( NYMEX:TTF1! ), Henry Hub Natural Gas ( NYMEX:NG1! ) and WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) Amid a deep energy crisis faced by Europe, Dutch natural gas futures hit a new record of €350 per megawatt hour in August. Governments across the European Union adopted new rules to reduce electricity usage. In just two months, with a dramatic turn of events, natural gas prices in both Europe and the U.S. dipped below zero last week. TTF Next Hour Contract, which reflects real-time European market conditions, fell to -€15.78 on Monday, October 24th. The Waha index — a main indicator of natural gas supplies in the Permian Basin in West Texas, dropped to -54¢/mmBtu on the same day. What has made the highly sought-after energy source worthless? Europe: LNG Overflow and Insufficient Storage TTF contracts are for physical delivery of natural gas through the transfer of rights at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Virtual Trading Point, operated by Gasunie Transport Services (GTS), the transmission system operator in the Netherlands. Due to sanctions on Russia, European countries have been buying natural gas globally to prepare for peak winter consumption and asked the public to conserve energy. With increase in gas supply and decrease in gas usage, their efforts paid off. The average gas storage level in the EU has reached 93.4% of capacity, and the storage level in Germany has reached 97.5%. In addition to near-full storage levels, many LNG tankers are heading to Europe. According to Marine Traffic, out of the 641 liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers in operation worldwide, sixty are already in the north-west Europe, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Iberian Peninsula. Many LNG ships sit idly outside of ports because they cannot be unloaded. Clarksons Securities estimated that the voyage cost of an LNG carrier runs between $276,700 to $313,000 per day. This amounts to $8.3 - $9.4 million a month. In order to stop the bleeding, sellers are so desperate that they would pay someone to take over the shipment. US: Overloaded Pipelines Due to Planned Repairs Waha Index Futures is based upon the mathematical result of subtracting the monthly price published by Inside FERC from the average of the daily prices published by Gas Daily. Permian gas is produced mainly in the form of associated gas, a by-product from crude oil drilling. Crude production from the prolific basin has hit record highs this year, topping 5.4 million barrels per day in October, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Natural gas pipelines in the Permian Basin of West Texas cannot operate normally as they are already fully loaded, and natural gas can only be stockpiled in the Permian Basin. Planned repairs on Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast Express (GCX) pipeline appear to be the tipping point for the negative prices. Flows on GCX were cut by 38% through October 28th. The constraints forced Permian producers to sell gas at wider discounts to the US benchmark, Henry Hub. Spot prices turned negative on October 24th, meaning sellers have to pay buyers to move the gas. Bogeyman in Physical Delivery Specifications for futures contracts are very specific (hence the name). Exchanges strive to include all possible scenarios in contract design. With respect to the most important features, namely, the grade of the underlying commodity and the methods of trade settlement, no alternations are allowed unless they are specifically spelled out in the Rules Book. Both TTF and Waha reflect spot prices of natural gas physically delivered to the contract-specified locations. These designs worked well at normal times. However, under extreme conditions, sellers could not make delivery due to insufficient storage or overloaded pipelines. Negative pricing is the bogeyman in TTF and Waha. This bizarre phenomenon is a lesser evil for sellers, who have to choose between taking a known loss and potentially bigger exposure with holding unfulfilled financial obligations. How did we get here? In recent years, as developed countries are fully committed to combatting global warming, new investments are flowing into renewable energy, and away from traditional fossil fuel such as oil, gas and coal. As a result, gas pipelines and storage facilities are underfunded and lacking maintenance and upgrades. This year’s geopolitical crisis exposed the risk of getting rid of “dirty energy” too soon before clean energy picks up its pace. TTF Next Hour contract serves as a risk management tool for high-frequency gas traders. The benchmark for European natural gas is actually the TTF Calendar Month Futures. It never turned negative and is quoted at €139 on October 28th. The benchmark for US natural gas is not Waha Index, but NYMEX Henry Hub (NG). It peaked at $9.70/MMBtu in August and is trading at $5.625 on October 30th. Remember the Negative Oil Prices? On April 20, 2020, the front-month May 2020 WTI crude contract ( NYMEX:CL1! ) dropped by 306%, or $55.90, for the session, to settle at negative $37.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI first came to the market in 1983. It was the most successful futures contract in the history of NYMEX. Each contract calls for physical delivery of 1,000 barrels of crude oil at any storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma. In the next 30+ years, the exponential growth in WTI trading has outgrown the capacity in Cushing. In April 2020, all storage facilities eligible to take delivery were completely full. Sellers had to pay buyers to take the crude oil shipment off their hands. That was the first time a futures contract closed at a negative value. We could see the same bogeyman at play in TTF and Waha. How to Avoid Getting Caught in Negative Prices Unless you are a commercial trader who could make delivery, take delivery, and store shipment, it is highly risky to hold any open positions (long or short) during a contract expiration month. Futures contracts have two methods of final settlement – physical delivery and cash settlement. All financial futures are cash settled. These include equity indexes, interest rates, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrency futures. Commodities futures, including energy, metals, and agricultural commodities, are a mixed bag. They were all deliverable contracts at the beginning. Newer contracts have adopted cash settlement with the help of cash price index, such as CME Lean Hog Futures. Despite the methods of delivery, be it physical delivery or cash settlement, closing out the positions before expiration month is a prudent strategy. Doing so will also avoid getting caught in the depletion of liquidity. Commodity market liquidity is usually rolled over to the next contract month well before expiration date. Happy trick-or-treating ! *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
11
Oct 27,22-NG Winner AGAIN-700 pt profitThis week is a good week!! Last night I closed out my 5.5 Buy Order for another 700 point profit (officially 695 point profit) to close at 6.2 (officially 6.195). Next up is my Buy Order at 6 which currently is in profit territory. The storage report is today so we shall see what happens. I might get out of my position with a small profit. Not sure. Then there is still my Buy Order at 7, where I was a little early (ok a LOT early) with my bullish prediction. Should be an interesting finish to this year. Stay safe all and trade smart. Heiko
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem