Ng!1
NATURAL GAS broke the 1D MA50 after +2 months.Last time NG crossed that level was on November 03. But last time it did so coming below with the 1D MA50 as a Resistance, was on July 28 and before that March 09.
On both occasions, the after the break-out, an approximately +20% rise followed. In addition, the RSI just broke the trend-line which also broke during those two events. Everything points towards a Natural Gas value around 3.300.
Most recent NG signal:
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NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Rebounded on Feb 2021 RollNatural Gas prices rebounded after dropping earlier in the week from $2.5 to $2.25 on warm weather. Prices rebounded on tight balances, oversold technical conditions,
and roll into February 2021 contract. Support is expected to hold, as LNG flows are above 11 Bcf/d and balances are tight, with last draw at -152 Bcf.
Technical Analysis: 4 Hr chart shows oversold condition. Support is seen at $2.25. However, double bottom is still possible, before going higher around January 10.
Potential price target for the next leg up is $2.75 - $2.8. Upside potential for NG and BOIL may be limited due to roll into lower March 2021 contract on January 22 -27.
Fundamental Analysis: Bullish picture with tight balances and potential for a deficit is possible going into 2021. Lower 48 state production lost -4 Bcf/d vs. 2020,
while gas exports increased +4 Bcf/d, resulting in net increase in demand of 8 Bcf/d. Lower 48 production is expected to remain at 91 Bcf/d, while LNG flows and
Mexico exports will total 16 Bcf/d. HFIR energy believes, that forward curve is underpriced at avg. of $2.58/MMBtu. Should weather turn colder after January 11, 2021,
as projected by NatGasWeather, we may see NG prices bounce back to $2.7-$2.8 levels. Cash prices are likely to go much higher during winter. However, NG and BOIL,
will start rolling into lower March contract around January 22 -27, which may bring futures prices back to their current support level at $2.3-$2.5 at that time.
Overall picture for NG in 2021 is bullish, given lower production and higher LNG demand and exports remain in place. Traders are bullish EQT and BOIL (day trade).
Short sellers will still have their opportunities on selling 4 Hr tops. KOLD is an inverse daily ETF, that does well during March - April contract timeframe.
NATURAL GAS Hit the 4 month Support. Conditions for a rebound.NG almost made contact with the 2.440 level today, which has been the major Support since August 21. So far we have 3 perfect touches on the Support, which alone creates the conditions for a strong rebound.
A closer look on the 1D time-frame shows that this pattern resembles the March - June 2020 sequence, when NG also made 3 hits on the Monthly Support. As with now, the price was also coming at that time from a 1D MA50 rejection (turned into a Resistance after previously being a Support). Once the 1D MA50 broke and after a final pull-back, the very aggressive rally of August - October took place. The RSI patterns are also similar. I am carefully buying now and after the MA50 breaks, I will add on the next available pull-back the remaining of my position. The long-term target is 3.400.
P.S. It is always helpful to keep a longer-term perspective, having in mind NG's multi-year Cycles within the Channel Down, as shown below:
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NG: UNG: boil: Natural Gas Looking for a Bottom - Mid DecemberNatural Gas futures dropped disproportionately to fundamentals on lower national demand in the first half of December and slightly higher recent production.
However, NatGasWeather forecasts for the storage draw covering next three weeks are not as bearish as the drop in gas prices. LNG flows are consistently
bullish exceeding 10.5 bcf/d. The fundamentals are still strong. It seems that bullish traders are waiting for colder weather patterns to settle in before driving
prices higher.
If we get the forecasted warming next week, the prices may go lower. Expected trough at around December 9-12.
Technicals: The 4 Hr chart is oversold. Yet, this condition may persist for another week. The double bottom is more likely before going higher.
Per NatGasWeather Report:
EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Report Outlook: EIA Weekly Report
Week 1 – December 10 -70 to -80 Bcf Slightly Larger vs Normal Draw
(Nov 27-Dec 3)
Week 2 – December 17 -80 to -90 Bcf Slightly Smaller vs Normal Draw
(Dec 4-10)
Week 3 – December 23 -85 to -100 Bcf Slightly Smaller vs Normal Draw
(Dec 11-17)
NatGasWeather.com Forecast
5-Year Average -61 Bcf -105 Bcf -127 Bcf
ridethepig | Natural Gas Breaking Out!A nice swing cooking right on time for December seasonality flows to kick in.
This leg higher threatens the sacrifice of resistance and creates freedom to manoeuvre towards $4 and $5 in 2021. We have a similar sized move cooking in energy to the leg we traded in Oil, only this time round the swing we are tracking is to the topside. See for example the following breakdown we traded in Oil;
In the ST, play with the flow and continue ride the leg higher towards something like +/- 3.5 and 4.0 as the extension. Sellers are quite paralysed.
For the MT and LT as we know, the philosophy of transition towards a 'Green new Deal' or 'Build back better' in such a short period of time constitutes a pipe dream. Already power grids are coughing badly with so much activity from lockdowns and more people at home, the theory that we will all be driving electric cars and etc looks quite far... one cannot rebuild energy without great difficulties is important to understand.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Oversold, Roll into January ContractNatural gas futures NG moved higher as it started rolling into January contract on Nov 20. Technical conditions are oversold on 4 hr chart. We have an unfilled gap at $3.1 level, a possible target for an upside move. Weather forecasts into early December are less bearish than last week, but still alternate shots of cold air with periods of warming.
Next week EIA report is expected to be on a bullish side, a draw of about 20 Bcf, as demand exceeded supply for the period ending Nov 18. Expecting a gradual move to higher prices, unless weather forecasts change showing more cold temperatures coming.
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Looking for Support NG: Natural gas NG contract may find its support at $2.6 level before moving higher into January contract. Prices dropped on warmer weather forecast Nov 18 -Dec 2. From technical perspective, NG is approaching oversold condition on 4 Hr chart. Lower prices are still possible due to bearish EIA report on Nov 19, as built is expected on the backdrop of low demand through November 20. However, roll into January contract Nov 22 - 25 may provide support for this transition into colder temperatures starting first week of December. Should NG start rolling into January as early as November 19, the dip may not be a slow as expected due to warm weather.
NATURAL GAS Long-term Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price bounced on the 1D MA200 which has been holding and acting as a buy entry since March 31. Also the RSI bounced on its multi-month Support level.
Target: 3.350 (right below the Resistance).
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Natural Gas 9 novembernatural gas has declined significantly but winter is here so demand for it is there.
predicting a bearish movement unless it hits my sl
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NATURAL GAS Still some downside left before recoveryPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy on the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement level.
Target: 3.350 (just below the Resistance).
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NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas testing support before moving higherFundamentals remain bullish. NG Natural gas futures are getting ready for December roll. November contract made a rally up to $3.1 on Wednesday and now is testing support at $2.97 - $2.95 level. A three dollar price level needs some digestion. To break above $3.2 December price will require support from colder weather forecasts and higher LNGs. Rise in seasonal demand is confirmed by weather forecasts for the second half of November and into December - January. Last week in October forecast has now turned colder predicting high national demand for the next week (NatGasWeather). Supply/demand balance is tightening. LNGs are at 8-8.5 bcf/d with expectations to increase to 10 bcf/d within the next a couple of weeks.
Technicals are pointing toward a pullback before the roll begins and prices move higher. Currently, support for November contract is seen at $2.97-$2.95 level. Even if lower prices are seen on Friday, the dip may represent a buying opportunity before the roll.
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Upside Potential vs. Bearish WeatherNatural gas NG is getting ready to roll into higher priced December contract, Oct 25-29. The upside potential on a roll is $3.2 price level vs. current $2.8. However, weather forecast is bearish for the rest of the week and into early November. LNGs are higher at 8 bcf/d, but Cameron facility and Sabine pass are still blocked and expected to stay that way for the next a couple of weeks. NGI predicts trough in demand later this week. NatGasWeather predicts low national demand Tue -Fri on warming in high consumption areas. November contract may dip toward expiration.
Technical Indicators: MACD chart has formed a double bottom pointing to higher prices. RSI has potential for a move higher, but may also form an island top with a dip lower before going higher, should traders react negatively to bearish weather forecast for end of October - beginning of November.
The Volume bars on a price chart (see circle on top chart) showed limited buying at $2.8 level. Support for November contract is seen at around $2.7 level. Some analysts see support at $2.595 - $2.572 levels, should weather models lose TDDs later in October.
Higher prices on Monday afternoon were supported by cold shot over Plains and Rockies and trader optimism.
NG:UNG:BOIL: Natural Gas Futures testing supportNatural gas prices are testing support zone at $2.6-2.5. Price retracement on lighter US demand this week. However, LNG flows are back up to 7 bcf/d and are expected to keep increasing to 10 bcf/d later in October and November - December (NGI). Seasonal demand is expected to improve within the next 2 weeks. A cold shut this weekend, if confirmed, may change price action to bullish.
possible move for naturalgas possible move for natural gas.this is so possible move for this cfd. reason market is over extended buy and re test this 38 area and did not break previous high and back. so i think this move go down as mark. lets see the next week. happy trading.stay with me feature info
Will October be Déjà vu for NATURAL GAS?Quick observation here. NG traders that are deep into the commodity's technical dynamics agree that Natural Gas is trading on patterns that are cyclical on the very long-term.
If cyclical behavior and seasonality play a big part on this, then why should the month of October be any different? Every 4 years since 2012, NG makes a bottom around March-April, then rises aggressively up until October, which initiates a pull-back. That pull-back appears to be a Bull Flag for a new High a few months later.
Will history repeat itself?
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Monthly Structure on Natural Gas / Full analysisToday we will give our technical view on Natural Gas
Main items we can see on the chart:
a) We are working on a weekly timeframe because we are facing structures that come from 2000 until the present
b) The main structures we have are 1- Monthly Support zone and 2-Monthly descending trendline. Those two levels are the edges of the current scenario.
c) Based on past behavior, we can see that after the price reached the support zone and the descending trendline was broken. A significant Bullish movement came after that
d) The idea to think now is: Are we going to see the same behavior?
e) Our Main idea on this scenario is that the price will reach the Monthly descending trendline as the first Bullish Target
f) If we think about taking positions on this asset, we will wait until we can see a clear corrective structure on the 4HS chart, and we will trade towards the monthly trendline ONLY if our Risk Reward Ratio is higher than 1.5
NATURAL GAS Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: (A) Buy as long as he price trades above the 1D MA200 (orange line) (B) Sell if it breaks below it.
Target: (A) 2.700 (right below the Resistance) (B) 1.650 (right above the Support).
*Note: the RSI is near its 1 year Support Zone. Only once this failed to initiate a bullish sequence.
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SELL NATURAL GAS BELOW 20 EMA FOR 50 EMANATURAL GAS MOVING CLOSURE TO 50 EMA, A LITTLE SUPPORT AT 20 EMA. ADVICE TO SELL BELOW 20 EMA FOR TGT OF 50 EMA, A SHAPE OF REVERSE CUP WITH HANDLE IS ALSO FORMED IN MCX ON DAILY CHART. KEEP EARNING.
