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NQ

NQ is in bear flag, as long as it holds those highs it shouldNQ is in bear flag, as long as it holds those highs it should see lower lows imo Simple distribution and premium kill all day. All the money seems are made during the open, now algo game I would not do options, unless in and out as those loose value quick VIX closed its gap and still in consolidation mode. Ideally we bottom in Nov and see a good rally into Jan high. NQ should see around 8.5k imo, waiting for the capitulation move For now range trade, in and out.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
17
SPY RALLY WEEK - Are you ready for it?I continue to post these SPY Cycle Patterns as a way to help educate and explore my research/results. The interesting part of this research is these patterns originate at an anchor point nearly 5 years ago and continue to produce valuable predictive results for each week going forward - all the way out to 2028 and beyond. Why are they so important? Because they can help you understand how cycles, price patterns, and psychology play a role in future price activity. Of course, they are not 100% accurate as news items, the US Fed, and other (govt) actions may disrupt the cycle pattern trends. Ultimately, these are some of the best predictive solutions I've seen related to preparing for future trends/expectations in a long while. Elliot wave is a great tool, but it adapts to future price movement. Therefore, what you see and believe is going to happen right now may not be valid in 2 to 5 days. Fibonacci is probably the most valuable solution for attempting to develop any type of predictive modeling - besides my Cycle Patterns. Well, this is all just conjecture related to what I believe. Here we go - RALLY WEEK. Let's see what happens. Most of November 2022 is looking quite bullish. So we may see a fairly strong start to a Christmas Rally setting up this week. 11-6: CRUSH - I expect this pattern to push into Monday, driving a fairly strong upward trend. 11-7: Flat-Down - this pattern may transition into early Tuesday, but quickly move towards the BreakAway trend. 11-8: BreakAway - This pattern should carry through most of Tuesday/Wednesday. 11-9: Rally - Off we go. 11-10: Rally - Continued rally (short squeeze) 11-11: Rally - possibly a stalling rally phase headed into the weekend. 11-12: Carryover - the weekend will setup as a pause, rotation, bottom for early next week. 11-13: Bottom Follow my research..
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Weekend Update: SPX Futures AnalysisENDING DIAGONAL BLACK EWT COUNT My primary analysis is the SPX Futures have been mired in an overlapping decline that will conclude on an Ending Diagonal provided we head to new lows soon without breaching the 3928 level first. I will admit my primary analysis has come perilously close to invalidation (as is the nature of Diagonals). Additionally, my black ED path could have academic similarities with an overall ABC to conclude what I'm classifying as a cycle wave IV in a SC wave III. Allow me to make the case for my primary analysis first, then I'll discuss the alternatives. The area where we get a major clue in the ES is a breach of 3590 which is displayed by the thick black line in the above chart. However, as you can see from the below Nasdaq Futures chart, that area has already been breached. The retracement has breached the .786% Fibonacci support area and looks poised to make a new low. I do not analyze the NQ chart but in as much as the index looks similar to the ES structurally, it appears to be further along towards bottoming. The obvious question “Is NQ leading the ES...or vice versa”? Nonetheless, it is a clue we should take note of. Also, the heavily weighted stock of Microsoft at 5% of the SP500 index has already breached its low and is almost complete from a pattern standpoint. This is the same structure I am looking for in the SPX/ES to turn from bearish to bullish. The chart of Apple has yet to strike that new low and is the largest component of the index. SO this bolsters my primary analytical point of view that regardless of what happens in near term, the SPX/ES is not complete in making its bottom despite what the financial news media may or may not report. The below chart is the difference between the life of the Black count and Purple becoming my primary...and it boils down to a breach of 3928. Above 3928 and the ending diagonal count will be taken off the chart. As of today, the SPX/ES has the opportunity to bottom quickly without interjecting more uncertainty. Whether it will do so or not remain to be seen. Nonetheless, it is my primary thesis that the index will head to new local lows and bottom this month. CORRECTIVE RETRACEMENT PURPLE EWT COUNT Below is the purple pathway and my secondary analysis of the path the ES Futures will take. If a breach of the 3928 level is to happen, this is the path price should take . I prefer a quick bottom as outlined in the black count but the purple count manages to do something I am in favor of when discussing stock market bottoms. It features a capitulation ending, only after getting its participants thoroughly confused. This is a slightly lower probability to the black count in my mind, but in truth statistically equal. RED COUNT IMPULSIVE MOVE HIGHER, BULLS RUN WILD TO 5200-5500 The red count is my second alternative and structurally is valid but contains too many unknowns and therefore at this juncture maintains a shaky analytical foundation. First, it features a leading diagonal to start off the next bull run. Diagonals are declines or advances in which the trader sentiment is so UNDECIDED it makes for a choppy pattern that just frustrates participants. Diagonals are not reliable trading patterns and therefore it's hard for me to get behind this next bull run based on such feeble sentiment. Nonetheless, the red count is a 100% viable option within the rules of Elliott Wave and therefore I am including it. The main difference between the red and purple count is where as the purple count concludes in the area of 1.0% to 1.236% Extension area, the red count surpasses that area in just the iii of 3-wave. The red count is an impulsive 5 wave structure that would complete as high as 4500-4600. As an analyst all I can do is wait for the individual components of my analysis to eliminate themselves to finally arrive at a tradeable thesis. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON I HAVE NO REASON TO ABANDON THE BLACK ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN FOR FINAL COMPLETION. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
8
NQ as long its below 10990-11000 its bearishI missed am rally, exited one long from yesterday at the open and didnt re buy again, was too slow Now I have added back to my swing short here (some was sold at my 645 and 685 levels I posted yesterday) Watch that bold support line, its a very important place for the price! Congrats to those who took a long this am! I was saying about this rally yesterday it came super fast. Its Fri, do not over trade! Have stops if you are in green, it can turn against you at any time!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
1
Simple RSI/FIB Price System - BITCOIN BULLISHI've taught this system to hundreds of people over the past few years. It is a simple HIGHER HIGH/LOWER LOW system based on RSI 60/40. It is great for making decisions about longer-term trending and you can apply short-term technical analysis tools to 4 hour or other intervals to catch shorter-term trends. BITCOIN is BULLISH using this system. In fact, I would not be surprised to see $29k to $32k before the end of 2022. The BASE/BOTTOM appears to be already in place and now we are simply waiting for some of that Christmas Rally momentum to push BITCOIN higher. Follow my research and learn how I can help you stay ahead of the biggest market trends.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
Another low in play for Nasdaq?Third quarter results for big tech came out last week and it wasn’t pretty. Is this a harbinger of another low? Look at the price action, the Nasdaq 100 is now sitting just below the .5 Fibonacci Level which has marked a local resistance level. Curiously the price structure looks very familiar when compared with the April to June period. In that episode, prices tried to break upwards (1) but lost momentum. This resulted in a large drop to the next lower Fibonacci level (2), followed by a rally back to the 0.382, Fibonacci level above (3), where resistance was met again, and prices fell (4). Is what we are looking at now a reprise? On the macro side of things, a couple of factors keep us bearish. Firstly, the behemoth federal reserve balance sheet is only in the first innings of its reduction program. This worries us as the effect of this reduction is the removal of liquidity in the financial markets which could lead to higher volatility. We will keep our eyes & ears peeled for this week’s FOMC, to identify any potential changes to the quantitative tightening schedule. Secondly, we point back to our previous research and note that the Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio is still at incredible highs, with further room to fall when compared back to the dot-com bubble in 2000. If we layer the 10-year yield (inverted) onto this Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio, one could argue that the tech outperformance could be driven by the decade-long fall in interest rates. With interest rates sharply higher now, and a few more hikes on the cards, we wonder if Nasdaq can truly hold up against the S&P500. With murmurs of a Fed Pivot driving the Nasdaq higher over the past few days, we think this presents a good opportunity for a short position. As laid out by the price structure we observed and the overhanging bearish macro picture we think another low is in play for the Nasdaq 100 index. With FOMC this week and a packed economic calendar, one way to manage risk is to trade the Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures, which is a smaller and more manageable contract, allowing you the option to average into your position. Entry at 11,540, stop at 12,150. Target at 10,300. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by inspirante
10
Look where NQ closedYou tell me if its bullish setup into next week or not. Gaping up and holding the breakout (white line) support/resistance will be def a breakout, otherwise Im not in that camp, even if its going to gap up on Sunday open. All ES and SPX extensions I was looking, got hit. Monday can be (and I think it will be) a very bearish day, lets say Spooky Monday! Cant say happy Halloween as I dont cheer or celebrate dark/evil holidays, but it def can be one for the markets. Have a great rest of your weekend, I will update SPX chart tomorrow.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by RealTima
16
Cycle Patterns for Nov-2022 - Enjoy the November RallyThank you to all of you who have been curious and asking questions. This past week I've been busy taking care of family issues and coding. I'm still deep into researching cycles, frequencies, and cycle trends. Often, I take drives to clear my head and think about things. Just last Wednesday, I came up with the idea that multiple cycles may be operating on different levels within a price chart (almost like the Multiverse) - but slightly different. My thinking is these cycle structures are PAUSED when a primary cycle trend is active. So, there may be 5+ various cycles operating on a chart, but only ONE (the primary) is active at one time with a secondary cycle structure possibly driving shorter-term price structures. I'm going to dig into this to see what I can find out. Here are all of the November Cycle Patterns: 11-1: Bottom 11-2: UP/Down/Up 11-3: Base/Rally 11-4: BreakAway 11-5: Carryover 11-6: CRUSH 11-7: Flat-Down 11-8: BreakAway 11-9: Rally 11-10: Rally 11-11: Rally 11-12: Carryover 11-13: Bottom 11-14: N/A 11-15: N/A 11-16: InsideBreakaway 11-17: BreakAway 11-18: WeekendGap/Flat 11-19: Gap Up-Higher 11-20: Consolidation 11-21: CRUSH 11-22: FlatDown 11-23: BreakAway 11-24: Carryover 11-25: Temp Bottom 11-26: Gap Reversal 11-27: Breakdown 11-28: Momentum Rally 11-29: Gap Up-Lower 11-30: TOP Let's keep the chat going.... Have you found these cycle patterns useful? Have you checked out any of my other research/charts? What would you like my research to focus on? How can I help you improve your trading? Remember, these cycle patterns are mapped out into 2028~2029. They don't change AT ALL. I can tell you what will happen on any specific date based on my research. Are you ready for a fairly big rally in November? It sure looks like the US markets are in for a bit of a momentum rally phase.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
NQ is in clear bear flagI didnt have much time on research today, busy day. But I did spend some time on the NQ, as I didnt do NQ update for a while. I will also add comments to this post after I do my other research and go through few others updates I follow. So stay tuned, high chance this chart will get updated with extra comments several times. So as you can see on the chart, we are in a small (compare to the rest of the year) bear flag and we are already in most overbought conditions for this year including TRIN number and volume. My best extension (if it was not topped yet and they will push it higher before the elections) is at 12110-50NQ, with the top of the channel at 12250-300. But first it has to close above recent highs - 11750NQ I do expect a yo-yo style (outlined on the SPX yesterday) going into EOM and then Midterms. But the ideal target for this year is actually at 8-8.2k zone! I know it sounds crazy, but hey wasnt today's numbers crazy early this year? Some are still in denial. I do not call for a crash any longer, as we are out of that window astrologically and cyclically but I want to see another 25-35% cut from today's levels before this is over and we bounce hard into a bigger B wave No new highs next several years at min, maybe after 2026 if not 2032. I do expect 1999 and 2009 pattern, check it out. Again I might be wrong as anyone else out there, but this is my long term view, gotta stick to it till I see clear changes in trend. My plan for the short term is the same, its short tomorrow (Im already swing short) into EOM or 1-2nd FOMC rate decision) which should spark a rally and ideally mark the temp bottom going into the Midterms. They might make a big hike and stop for this year. Canada already increased .50 points instead of .75 points today, so FED can surprise. After the Midterms is where it gets tricky, I think we will have a last move down into week of 21st of Nov low, that should mark the low for the year. Can we extend into next year, yes we can, I will be updating you with my view going forward into mid of Nov. If something not clear, just shoot a question below this post. Here is zoomed in chart Also please dont forget to press that 🚀 sign under this post to push it up in algos for others to discover.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
6
NAS : Sell 11631.0 SL 11636.0 TP1 11163.8 TP2 10800My current sell bias on NQ Have sellers stepped back in this week? Im always sure to keep a tight stop profile, because more or less if im wrong, then im wrong. But im still short, we just made a new qtrly high. Let's see how this plays out. We may see high price movements into the 2nd Qtr Supply, which is a maybe, but if so then longs could be considered in the short term. This may just be a bear market rally? Sell 11631.0 SL 11636.0 TP1 11163.8 TP2 10800
OANDA:NAS100USD
by SolidWetFX
Three Drives Up Pattern This appears to be a Three Drives Up pattern, which is typically a topping pattern and may not follow through well at the bottom of a bear market; but I still expect some pullback to at least 50% retrace ~11100 or 62% ~11000. 11100 POC should show some support regardless of how far it runs. on a little longer TF there's also a POC around 11.2k. Pattern fails if it makes more than 168% retrace. We've got META and F earnings after the bell which I think will disappoint. Earnings whisper has META missing bad.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Nicklaus68
2
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq Looking to do 7 Swing RallyShort term Elliott Wave view on Nasdaq (NQ) shows an incomplete bearish sequence from 11.22.2021 high favoring further downside in the higher time frame. Near term, cycle from 8.16.2022 high has ended and the Index is now rallying to correct this cycle in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes. Down from 8.16.2022 high, wave (A) has ended at 10485.39 as the 45 minutes chart below shows. Wave (B) rally is now in progress to correct cycle from 8.16.2022 high. Internal subdivision of wave (B) is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (A), wave ((a)) ended at 11185, wave ((b)) ended at 10713, and wave ((c)) of W ended at 11431.75. Pullback in wave X ended at 10935.50 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave W, wave ((a)) ended at 11008, wave ((b)) ended at 11328.75, and wave ((c)) ended at 10935.50. This completed wave X. Wave Y higher is in progress as a zigzag structure. Up from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 11530.25. Index should now pullback in wave ((b)) to correct cycle from 10.21.2022 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast