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NZD (New Zealand Dollar)

NZDUSD - At critical supportNot financial advise. Do your own research. The ideas shared here are the personal opinions of the BitDoctor team. Trade at your risk. As I originally pointed out a couple days ago that NZD was at a decision making point, we are there yet again! I basically called this bottom and we're finding support here. This support is here, but how long will it hold? We can see from the channel we're in that we're punching it repeatedly. Here's what I can see right now: 1. Strong sell pressure got us down to where we are. Very strong sell pressure. Almost all the volume on the way down was selling. 2. We are having a weak reaction. Support levels are only strong if you see a strong reaction. If there's not a strong reaction (there isn't) then we'll likely fall back down some more. 3. The oscillators just look really bad right now. Best case is we move sideways for a few bars (maybe a couple days) but unless there's a reaction here (and soon), we will start trading further outside of this channel causing sells to occur. If we fail this zone, the next area to look for support is .672 or .667 Trade Safely Friends! <3 -CE-
Education
by bitdoctor
Elliot Wave Alternation Elliot Wave Alternation The guideline of alternation states that if wave two of an impulse is a sharp retracement, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. Figure 22 shows the most characteristic breakdowns of impulse waves, both up and down. Sharp corrections never include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave. They are almost always zigzag (single, double or triple); occasionally they are double threes that begin with a zigzag. Sideways corrections include flats, triangles, and double and triple corrections. They usually include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave.
Education
by ImSng
Patience, discipline and a bit of judgementOne of the big issues for many traders is simply patience. In this video I'm showing how one set up could have taken 63 days to deliver around 500 points. What's the rush? Let the charts work for you. Patience and discipline takes time to develop, of course. Do the time. Take the time. Let time work for you. Sometimes a bit of judgement is required. But whatever we do, minimising loss is the big issue. Taking an affordable chance (or loss) is sometimes necessary - as in this game there is no certainty. My own methods therefore do not rely on 'confirmations'. Importantly in this 6H chart, one need not check the trade more than once or twice per week.
Education
by Captain_Walker
When the money is on the floor - take it!In this viog I spotted a set up and did not plan to trail. So, the money is on the floor and I take it. Greed and FOMO are not the ways to go. I share how I use some indicators and price movement to assess the situation before entry. I trade what I see, not what I hear. :)) The most important things in trading: 1. See 2. Assess 3. Calculate if risk is acceptable. 4. Define entry. 5. Decide on exit. Exit strategies do not have to include a target. I know some people who have missed loads of profits because price missed a targets by about 2 - 10 pips. I call that silly. The important issue is to have exit criteria, which could be any set of situations on the chart that you define. A 'target' therefore does not have to be a fixed point. In trend-following trading for example there are no targets at all. But there are exit criteria. But nothing is perfect. If the situation changes and there is doubt about exit, just take the money!
Education
by Captain_Walker
TRADING THE INTRADAY TFs - 8 OPPORTUNITIES IN 1 DAY (MUST READ)I wish I could have posted this with the 5-minute timeframe because patterns appear clearer there, but to my realisation you actually cannot post something less than 15M, which does make sense, although Educational posts should be allowed to do that in my opinion. Anyway the purpose of this post is to basically demonstrate that intraday, or day-trading timeframes are also worth trading, given they fit your trading personality as well as having practiced well enough in order to trade them, because they are a totally different world. For some people these timeframes are way too fast so they rightfully choose not to trade them and instead stick with the higher ones, like the D, W, M etc. What is really frustrating though, is the fact that people who choose not to trade these timeframes, completely dismiss them saying that noone should trade them, because they are completely unreliable and un-tradeable. Now, it is true that these timeframes are harder to trade, and given their fast-paced nature they may seem as unreliable to some people but that does not mean that one cannot or should not trade them. Let's not forget about the fractal nature of the markets, and particularly speaking for Elliott Waves, which happens to be the core of my analysis. As taken from the book "...To say, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is in Minute Wave 'v' of Minor Wave '1' of Intermediate Wave (3) of Primary Wave '5' of Cycle Wave 'I' of Supercycle Wave (V), of the Grand Supercycle, is to identify a specific point along the progression of market history.." (Prechter and Frost, 1978). This chart demonstrates what was quoted above. Even though we are looking at the 15M timeframe something else is occurring in the 5M timeframe, just like something else is occurring in the W timeframe. The point I'm trying to make is the fact that whether it is the 5M, or 15m or even 1M does not constitute them invalid, or wrong or unreliable. Now looking at the chart we can see how valid patterns do form in the lower timeframes as well (again in the 5m it would have been much clearer but they can still be identified on the 15M) and had you been trading on that specific day you would have had 8 different opportunities to jump on a trade, even on a choppy sideways move like this one. Does it mean you should have taken all 8? No but my point is that opportunities do exist day in and day out, and day-trading is very plausible, given you have the right strategy and trading plan for yourself. Even if we take a simple example from other markets, consider Stocks, and particularly Penny Stocks (that are listed on the NYSE, ARCA & NASDAQ). I will not generalise or give this as a fact but judging from what I've seen the trading timeframes with those assets are mainly the 5-minute and 1-minute, which does make sense, because I don't know why one would want to buy and hold a penny stock. Concluding, I am not saying that one should just jump on the lower timeframes after reading this post and start trading them. It will take a lot of practice, and it's always wiser to master the higher timeframes, identify the patterns there and then scale down. But again trading these timeframes is very much possible. P.S I want to give my many thanks to @David_Giraldo, who has opened my eyes and made me realise that these timeframes are indeed tradeable, as I had also dismissed them from what I was hearing other people say. Go have check out his profile as you will learn a lot from him too. Bibliography: Prechter, R. and Frost, A. (1978). Elliott wave principle - A key to market behavior. 11th ed. Gainesville, Georgia USA: New Classics Library, p.28.
Education
by Aqua_Trader
6
Follow the Trend, My Strategy!This is my trading plan. You can look through my published ideas to look at other examples. I need 3 reasons to enter a trade. 1. A clear direction. I use 3 emas 50, 100, and 200 as shown in the chart.(Required) 2. A horizontal support/resistance area. (Required) 3. Price retrace to one of the emas to act as resistance. (preferably than fib) 4. Fib continuation 0.382, 0.5, or 0.618 level. Placing a stop loss. My target for stop loss is between 10-25 pips. I place my stop loss behind the horizontal and/or the next ema. My target price is always 2 times more pips than I risk. ---------------------------- I trade between 15 pairs, and on 30 minute time frame. One reason is to counter F.o.m.o trading(Fear of missing out). Counters Revenge trading because my trade size is smaller, and the opportunities are endless. Counters Gambler's Fallacy because I require 3 reasons to enter a trade, I don't enter a trade and expect to win after losing 3 times in a row, I place a trade based on my strategy. I'm still trying to evolve as a trader, as you can see that throughout my published ideas.
Education
by PavelKarakay
Moving Average - Educational StudyHi guys, I would like to present to you this educational trading method that was adopted by Rayner Teo-1.72% . ( search him up , he is a great trader and mentor ) Basically the moving averages act as a support and resistance levels and can indicate an ongoing trend , you can use them to time your entries and ride the trend. Keep your SL trailed alongside with the trend. You can keep adding positions every time the price hits the EMA's and shows that it respects them as a valid support/resistance area! You collect your profit only when you think the trend has ended and and it's time to close the trades. Update status
Education
by vladisavage
1
Correlation Trading - How to Trade Forex With Little to No Risk!Tonight we did a live stream on YouTube offering an in-depth explanation of correlation trading. You can watch the stream back in its entirety here www.youtube.com Below will be a written explanation of correlation trading utilizing the AUDJPY vs. NZDJPY as the example: Correlation trading is an amazing way to add diversification to your trading portfolio and in your trade plan. You can continue your trading plan and strategy but take advantage of correlation trading opportunities as they arise to increase your ability to profit from the forex market. In correlation trading the objective is to find currency pairs that are highly correlated, meaning that when one pair moves in any given direction the other pair also moves in that same direction. A great example of this would be the AUDJPY vs. the NZDJPY. Over the past year the correlation between the two pairs has been very positive, 92% of the time over the past year the two pairs have been moving in sync with one another. This correlation can be confirmed by using the Oanda correlation chart: Once you have confirmed that you are looking at two pairs that are highly correlated to one another, you will want to then look into the charts and compare the price action over the past year. TradingView makes this very convenient with the ability to overlay charts. When we overlay the NZDJPY chart on the AUDJPY chart (candlesticks=AUDJPY, bars=NZDJPY) we can clearly see the times of the year when the two pairs were moving very much in sync and the times where the correlation cracked a bit and the two pairs moved oddly in opposing directions. It is during these times when the correlation cracks that provides us with the immensely profitable and essentially risk free trading opportunities. If you notice on the chart throughout the past year you will see highlighted in yellow boxes all of the times when the correlation has cracked and a gap has formed. We can look at these moments and estimate the average maximum gap in correlation and use this information to gauge when to take a correlation trade on this pair. You will notice every time the correlation has cracked and a gap in price action has formed, price inevitably moved back in correlation narrowing and even closing the gap You will also notice if you look back at the widest portion of the gap from every time there was a crack in correlation that it has been roughly anywhere between 400-500 pips . If we look at the second to most recent gap in correlation that we have labeled on the chart you will notice that at its widest point the gap in price was roughly 600 pips; the high being at 85.500 and the low being at 80.700. If we were watching this occur as it was happening and we noticed the gap in correlation approaching 400 pips and then 500 pips and then 600 pips, forming the widest gap in correlation all year, we could then look to take a correlation trade between these pairs. In this given example around 3/11/16 we would look to take equal positions of long NZDJPY and short AUDJPY banking on the fact that the gap in correlation should statistically, with 92% likelihood, narrow and potentially even close completely so that the two pairs are moving back in correlation with one another. You will see that if we did this we covered on 3/30/16 we would have netted ourselves a fruitful profit of 300 pips. Our short position in AUDJPY would have been down about 20 pips or so but our long in NZDJPY would have been up about 340 pips. This profit came with little to no direction risk because as one position goes against you the other statistically should go in your favor and if you are not netting a profit at any given moment your loss should be simnifically reduced as compared to what it would be if you were only holding the losing position.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn261897
13