RTY1!
RTY1! Gold Oil12.1.21 RTY1! Gold Oil: On this video I compared three markets, one of them was contracted and the other two were volatile markets. You do not need to trade many markets to be profitable, but you need to avoid markets that are contracted and don't give you a sense of probability that is to your advantage. Contracted markets are more difficult to have a sense of probability unless they have a fairly well established range with enough distance between buyers and sellers, and that's what will allow you to have a better sense of probability because the vertical range is enough for you to make a decent profit. If you have too many markets that you need to focus on, this can be very counterproductive, and you can waste a lot of time in markets that are likely to deliver a decent risk reward. Most people don't really understand why they can trade profitably for a few weeks or a few trades, and that everything turns sour. They know it doesn't feel right, but they haven't conceptualized with the markets doing. It's a very well-known phenomenon that some traders can have very profitable periods of trading, and then a short time later lose almost all their games. It can be so disconcerting that they will go through cycles of changing their charts and their indicators, but they don't realize the broad difference between expanding markets and contracting markets. This can go on for years. Most traders who start trading, losing the markets, and stop trading. Bobby's Homework Assignment: study the last three or four videos and notice the difference between expanded markets and contracted markets. Make a note to yourself that even in parish markets, even prolonged bearish markets there will be periods of time where taking a long position will be very profitable. This is absolutely a fact. One reason this is important is that most traders are all or nothing, and they're either bullish or bearish, and there is no flexibility in their assessment and their ability to be flexible. Don't Be That Way!
Futures Levels | Head Fake Or Higher? (ES, NQ, ZN, GC)It's nice when a projection comes together. Last week, our outlook suggested that we could see rates breakout, which would likely lead to broader stock index futures weakness. We got it half-right. Rates did breakout, but the rate rise ended up looking more like a head fake, so the selling was contained, with Friday even seeing a strong rebound.
This week there's not much to go on with earnings still a few weeks away. We'll be watching the BTC $50K level, 4400 ES, and if Gold can hold 1750.
Futures Levels | Week Ahead Sept 19 (ES, YM, NQ, RTY, ZN, GC)Yoooo Speculators - let's look at some levels in the futures stock indices following a telegraphed week of selling into last Friday's quad witching.
Overall, the markets have cooperated with our most recent analysis that suggested shorts in the NQ and ZB. Now, I'm gonna go out on a pretty firm limb (you know, since markets never go down), and say that we're probably close to the end of the selling in this cycle.
FOMC policy statement on Wed.
Trade Like You Mean It!
Tutorial | How To Use RSI To Find Turning Points ... or NOT!Hey Speculators - Happy Friday - welcome to another video tutorial, and thanks again to the @TradingView Editors for featuring my last post, which I've linked here, and is related to the topic on hand for today. That topic is how, and when, to not fight a trend.
I'd suspect many traders are familiar with the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), used to measure overbought and oversold conditions. In this video, I discuss what I look for when using RSI to filter trade signals and identify when strong is REALLY strong. The inverse would hold true as well (you know, weak, or really WEAK), but we all know markets never go down. :)
RSI Settings for this video
5 Period
Upper 88
Lower 12
Futures Levels | Look Ahead For The Week of Aug 22The VIX popped and dropped last week making the selling again a very short term event. The S&P ES1! is right back on trend after holding the 55EMA on the daily. Gold GC1! is in balance and crude CL1! continues to look like it wants lower prints.
Economic Calendar Week Starting Sun, Aug 22
Monday, August 23
EU Manufacturing & Services PMI 2:15 AM CST
US Manufacturing & Services PMI 8:45 AM CST
Thursday, August 26
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium All Day
US Preliminary GDP 7:30 AM CST
Friday, August 27
US Core PCE Price Index 7:30 AM CST
Futures Levels | Look Ahead For The Week of Jul 25There is a lot on tap this week including earnings from most of big tech (TSLA, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, FB) and a Fed Meeting/Policy Statement Wednesday. The S&P (ES), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and Dow (YM) all hit all time closing highs on Friday so it's a break out or bust look on several charts.
Let's take a look at the levels for the stock index futures, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin for the week of Jul 25, 2021
Futures Levels | Look Ahead For The Week of Jul 18Stock indices finally broke their uptrends last week, and the small caps (RTYU2021) completely fell apart. In the first of what may become a Sunday evening series, I take a look at what the Volume Profile and price structure may be telling us in terms of levels to watch this week for the ESU2021, NQU2021, RTYU2021, GCQ2021, ZNU2021, ZBU2021, and MBTN2021.
Quick take away is my favorite idea is to fade the strength in notes and bonds looking for rates to bottom in this cycle.