The History of the Stock Market: Path of Orwellian ControlThe History of Modern Humanity is flawed. A lie is a better word. Our history starts with the S&P being formed in 1870. We then have the Invention of the Telephone and the lightbulb a few years later... (What a Coincidence)
We see the impossible to construct Worlds Fairs Buildings of 1883 knocked down and our history rewritten. The Market has been turned into a weapon. In fact it has always been a weapon. "New inventions every few years when the time is right" to keep the market on its feet and the people under control.
Snp500
SPY signals danger...Seldom you get to see my SPY chart, and the hand is shown here. A more detailed hand as the situation warrants a good understanding and effort to read too.
Summary line is that there is a retracement in play, already if you had not noticed yet. Furthermore, this retracement should last to November. Good thing is that it is still possible to be shallow, although I rather think not.
Starting with the weekly chart and candelsticks... its kinda bad for now. Last week saw a Dark Cloud Cover / Bearish Engulfing candle. And middle of this week appears to have a follow through to complete a potential three outside down.
The TD Setup already indicates a pull back is due, with the 409 level as the critical support. Primary trend is still bullish, but wait to see how (not) shallow this retracement would be. Based on the techincal indicators MACD and VolDiv, it appears that 400 is a possible target.
For now, MACD is tapering off indicating a shallow retracement, for now. The VolDiv appears more bearish, and already heads up the retacement weeks ago.
Just want to highlight the time lines... Noted the previous time lines, and the decent accuracy of the tops and bottoms correlation.
Based on this only... end August appears to be a bad time for the S&P500, and until mid-November 2023.
At this point, correlating with the VIX/VXX and bond markets, it still appears that the markets are confused into a standstill... and something might be tipping the scales to the bear side in a while later.
Looking forward...
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 7.31-8.05 Last Week : We continued our distribution above 4570 which is our bigger time frame Resistance area. We have been going sideways building up supply here with a few attempts to continue towards upper part of HTF Resistance at 4666 but were met with selling. Key Support and Key Resistance for the week provided great trades up and down the range. Thursday we trapped buyers over 4615-4603 Resistance which gave us a look above and fail, market flushed but wasn't just yet ready to break 4570-62 and who ever got too short Thursday at the lows provided us with buying on Friday to bring us back towards our trapped supply area or start at Key Resistance.
This Week : We have been building Supply in this 4570-4615 range for almost 2 weeks with a failure to get current Key Resistance. We have stops lined up below us and trapped buyers above, this tells us if the market cannot get over 4614 area, hold and then take out 4628-23 then we shouldn't be looking for continuation higher for now.
Previous Day and T2 highs are right above us with trapped time and volume over 4615.
If market cant get over 4615 and accept then we would look for rotation lower as the longs who are buying in this range are not getting the upside and could start selling out. If we start triggering lower stops that can bring more selling. If current Cost basis and Swing Stops below 4562 get taken then we could see a move towards the stops at 4548.75-43 with a look under around 4637 and possibly test our next Key Support at 4532.50-24.
Our next cost basis would be just under that and we could see buying front running that area on first attempts unless we will have size selling that could break it and continue then we could stay around that lower range this week that is IF we break of course.
For the market to continue higher we would need to either see buying to take us over 4615 right away and hold above trapped last weeks shorts under for support or get under 4603, build a base above 4590 and then take out 4603-10 again, after that I think we could target next ranges Resistances and stops.
Levels to Watch :
Current Support : 4603-4598.75
If Broken Could Target 4589.50-84.75 // 4570-62.50
If Broken Could Target 4551.25-48.75-43.75
Next Key Support 4532.50-24.25 Possible to see buyers around 4537 on first tests
Current Key Resistance 4614.50-9.75
IF broken and hold above Could Target 4623-28
Next Key Resistance 4646.25-4336.50
SPY with a Classic RestestTraders,
In my last post I alluded to SPY. I stated that it remained in breakout territory which is still true today. I stated that as long as we remain above 450, I remain bullish. Still true. In fact, all that has happened here is that we have a classic retest of previous resistance taking place currently. If we break below, another story may unfold and I will have to re-assess. But as of this post, 450 is holding strong and the retest (if it holds) is yet another rather bullish signal.
Stay tuned,
Stew
SPX 500 (ES) Bearish and Bullish OpportunitiesThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
Combined US Indexes BREAKOUT!The combined US indexes clearly broke out of the range decisively.
Bullish now.
So, by simple geometric projection, there is a potential 10% upside.
Caveat is that the MACD and VolDiv are both weakening slightly. So, might have a retest of the resistance turned support, before the next launch.
On the contrary, IF the resistance turned support is broken (down) then it would tell otherwise.
Watch for it...
Combined US Indexes stick sandwichedQuick review... The combined charts appears to be giving a very clear heads up - with a candlestick sandwich !
Together with falling volumes, or in this case a falling VolDiv indicator, once the two red lines are broken, it is going way down, probably close to 600.
MACD is also supporting a weakening rally that is long in the tooth.
A storm is brewing... you know how you can smell it before you see it? That's where we are now, I think.
Accumulation of VIX to lead to a spike within the next week I'm back with yet another of my VIX bowl action posts.
There's so much going on around the globe that could trigger a spike. Markets are seeing negative RSI divergence across many indices on monthly, weekly and daily charts.
This time we could go even higher and reach the resistance above. But I'm being conservative in my target and aiming at the diagonal trend line.
I've linked my previous VIX bowl post that was extremely successful.
Good luck!
Combined US Indexes hit upside targetThe combined US indexes had spiked as expected, and hit the upside target. This came with good technical indicator support. But the caveat is that the candlestick looks like a dark cloud cover pattern. In this type of pattern, a gap up is reversed and a close is below the halfway mark of the previous candle body. This is exactly what happened so once can expect the outcome of a Dark Cloud Cover to follow, where there is a reversal. Furthermore, the target upside is also the channel Fibonacci 1.62 target.
Therefore, although the MACD and VolDiv appear supportive, it is likely due for a retracement. New support resistances are put in...
S&P500 Crash: Trillions Vaporized in Titanic Fed-Inflated BubbleThe S&P 500 is facing a significant correction due to the potential bursting of the Federal Reserve's asset bubble, which is currently driving its artificially inflated values. Amidst signs of overheating markets, soaring valuations, and unsustainable monetary policies, the equity market is on the brink of a major downturn.
The 2008 financial crisis, a debacle of epic proportions, wreaked havoc on a worldwide scale, decimating trillions of dollars in wealth. Subsequently, the COVID-19 pandemic, an unanticipated black swan event, exacerbated the situation, warranting an even more vigorous response from monetary authorities.
To offset these crises' debilitating effects, the Federal Reserve rapidly escalated its balance sheet from a figure shy of $1 trillion in 2008 to a staggering excess of $8 trillion by 2021. This monumental expansion was effected primarily via the purchase of government securities and other asset classes, essentially serving as the economic bellows to reignite the embers of the economy and replenish market confidence.
My prediction lies at the levels waiting beneath us including the 2.618, 4.236, 6.854, and 11.09....
A notable Fibonacci cluster is at 2,400... onky time will tell.
Charts Show Market Expects Fed to Pause but Big Resistance AheadTraders,
Over 90% of the market is currently pricing in a FED rate pause tomorrow, but beware, the market often moves towards the point of maximum pain. My charts are showing we are at a critical point of resistance as I type this post. The bulls are going to have to conquer 4,370 and confirm it on the daily to convince me that the they are not out of steam just yet. From my perspective and the way I am reading this chart, is that the market may be in for a bit of a surprise pullback here. The blow-off top that I predicted well over a year ago is still currently underway and, IMO, will continue. But the market never goes to any future price point in a straight line. We are due for a pullback. I am not saying this will occur. I am only suggesting that a bit of caution is still very much warranted for the remainder of this week.
Here's a look at a schedule of significant events that have or will yet occur and may cause volatility:
Tuesday:
• US CPI Data
• Hinman Docs Become Public
• SEC's Coinbase Rulemaking Response
• Binance US Hearing
Wednesday:
• US PPI Data
• FOMC Meeting
Thursday:
• US Jobless Claims
• US Retail Sales Data
Take care,
Stew
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 12 WEEKES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 12 WEEK
Price broke 4303. If this becomes support,
next target level will likely be 4584.
Scenario Planning:
1) Long on support at 4303
2) If false break, short on rejection at recent high / lower
high.
Note:
Longer Term: 4150 need to hold as support in order for
long trend to remain intact.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = NTC weakness
Daily: Low(er) vol up bar S>D close off high = NTC weakness
*NTC = Non Trend Changing
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4584-4525 4303 4150
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For educational purpose only.