Short idea on $SNP500This bullish trend has been going on for more than 80 years, during wars the economy grows against the background of money printing and aggressive infusions. I do not believe that the economy can grow honestly against the background of the global crisis. Only linden growth, which will end very, very not fun. Of course, these are just my thoughts and I could be wrong, but this situation requires hedging (shorts)
Snp500usd
Simple multitimeframe for US500, S&P 500 Index☝️Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!!
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snp a bounce before breaking down further?Just as mentioned about the trendline, once broken more downside to come.
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ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 08 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1! ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 08 WEEK
Are we seeing the bearish ascending triangle already?
As with NQ, tendency to take rotational trades has diminished.
Scenario Planning:
1) Rejection short at 4175 / 4068
2) If market decides to spring a surprise, long on test of break of
4198 and finds support
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
Daily: High vol narrow spread S>D bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4198 4068
3928 3788
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 13
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 13
Scenario1 short yielded 200pts for 2 trades.
Test of breakout level 4084 seen.
Some demand has returned and possibility of formation
of rotation between 4175-4094.
Scenario Planning:
1) Rotational play = trade at boundary of 4175-4094 zone
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = No supply
Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high = minor strength
H4: UHV up bar close toward high = Demand
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4094-4048 3928-3788
3580 3502 3231
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
HI EVERYONE!Cobra here!
Friday's report was quite neutral. The markets did not react much, but they closed with a fall. Let's take a brief look at the current situation:
The index is getting closer to its old GAP, which I wrote about a long time ago and said that it would be closed last. If there will be no additional bad news on the market, the gap will be closed, and then it can continue further downtrend. On Friday the dollar index DXY gave a good candle up, before the markets closed.
You can read next posts about crypto!
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 06ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 06
Last week's Scenario1 short and breakout trade
both offers TP of 50pts each.
Market is back into supply zone (circled), 3 TFs
showing supply coming in. Temporary short
opportunity may arise if market moves up on lower
volume and narrow spread.
Scenario Planning:
1) Short if 4209-4175 is resisted
2) Long on support and acceptance at 4094-4048 level when
breakout level is tested.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: High vol up bar close off high = supply coming in
Daily: Higher vol down bar, possible 2BR formation = supply coming in
H4: High vol down bar close at low (UT) = S>D. If up bar(s) after this
is narrow spread and low volume, we may have a temporary
short opportunity
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4094-4048 3928-3788
3580 3502 3231
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
S&P500 Technical Analysis-2023Hello everyone, hope you all are doing good.
Bullish Probability:(at least one or two weekly candle closes above 4100 than there is a possibility of this playing out).
There is an active Bullish Divergence playing out in RSI, so there are chances S&P500 may put new high above 5k.
If S&P500 put new High, then it can be a Triple Bearish Divergences, so after that it can be a massive dump of markets.
In this case the 1st Bottom will be 3500, so the 2nd Bottom can be massive drop from 5k to 2000, previously S&P500 dropped its 2nd Bottom from 1580 to 670(-57%).
Bearish Probability:(at least one or two Weekly candle closes below 3700 than there is a possibility of this playing out)
Currently the Fractal of SnP500 looks like similar to the previous oct-2001 to july-2002 Fractal.
S&P500 -> falling in a Descending parallel channel -> Breakout/Fake Out little and finally put lower low or 1st Bottom.
If this plays out than RSI may fall below 30 - invalidating the current Bullish Divergences. (Sometimes Divergences get invalidated due to forceful movement of Markets).
Target = around 3200 OR there is a possibility to fall on the sky Blue trendline.
Thank you, please like and share, if you have any questions please comment.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 23
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 23
Market didn't manage to test 4175-4094 area last week indicated
lack of demand, with the weekly bar displaying it more saliently.
Preference will be short on retracement.
Scenario Planning:
1) Short at rejection of trrendline or price levels
2) Long if price breakout of trend line, retraces and is supported
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Low vol up bar close off high = No Demand
Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high = No Demand
H4: Very high vol up bar close toward high = potential selling into
higher prices
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4094 3928-3788
3580 3502 3231
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 01ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 01
After rotation between 3788-3928, market breakout for long opportunity.
Temporary weakness may be expected. Wait at high levels to short is preferred
Scenario Planning:
1) Short at rejection of 4175-4094
2) Long test and accept of rotation area 4175-4094
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Low vol up bar close at high = No Demand
Daily: Low vol level bar close toward high = No Demand
H4: Low Vol narrow spread up bar close off high = No Demand
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4094 3928-3788
3580 3502 3231
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Ultimate Technical Analysis of Bitcoin-Correlation-DXY/Dollar Hello everyone, hope you all are doing good.
As I said I will be posting an idea how Bitcoin is corelated to DXY/Dollar, so in this am going to explain the S&P500+Bitcoin-->Correlation-->DXY/Dollar.
Guys this is very important to understand so please check the chart carefully an if you have any questions, please do comment.
DXY/Dollar:
DXY/Dollar is the ultimate chart to understand the overall markets and analyze the Economy if it is healthy or unhealthy state.
DXY/Dollar (Uptrend) in Macro/Long time frames--> (US economy is outperforming other big economies + Federal Reserve raising interest rates)
Analyse DXY in Past (Macro uptrend/Bull(A)):
-Overall DXY was moving in a massive Descending Triangle Pattern Which Breakout in Jan-2015.
-DXY is in Parallel channel from the year 1988 to 2002.
-I marked the Upper zones (roughly from 120 to 160) and Lower zones (roughly from 70 to 80).
-In the past years 2000 to 2002 DXY was topped out reaching the peak at 120 and failed to breakout from the parallel channel forming a Bearish Divergence
and dropped massively to 70.
(While DXY is forming Bearish Divergence in RSI, S&P500 is topped out and slowly down Trending and S&P500 formed its 1st Lower Low)
-And the momentum of DXY is downwards and keep falling and bottomed out at 70.
(S&P500 slowed down its downtrend momentum forming a Bullish Divergence in RSI -> moved in Uptrend forming Double Top.
-DXY (77 to 70 DXY made Bullish Divergence in RSI) is Bottomed and moved with high volatility in upside direction.
(S&P500 fell massively forming its 2nd Lower Low).
Analyse DXY (Macro uptrend/Bull(A)):
The parallel channel from the year 1988 to 2002 --> is something similar to the current Parallel channel from 2007 to current (2022).
Currently in 2022 DXY in smaller Time Frames formed only 1-layer of Bearish Divergence in RSI compared to past and it is complete.
(But the overall Bearish Divergences is incomplete in longer Time Frames or incomplete in Multiple Layers of Divergence).
Conclusion1:
I see many people saying DXY is inversely corelated to stocks or Bitcoin, but after deeply analyzing the charts,
in macro–Time Frames DXY is directly corelated to other markets (Bitcoin/S&p500), but in micro time frames DXY is inversely corelated (mainly when DXY is in high volatility in small Time Frames).
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
when high volatile move of DXY (upside/downside mainly after Divergences formed and in smaller Time Frames) -> Bitcoin is very high volatile(inversely).
when DXY is in consolidation or moving sideways -> Bitcoin is in slow form of Uptrend.
I found this interesting as:
A. Real world Currencies (Dollar <-----> other currencies).
B. Digital/Crypto Currencies (Bitcoin <----> other Alt coins/other crypto currencies)
The working system of A is almost similar to B.A-system works based on economy, but I didn't get on what basis B works? may be how much money you put in.
Conclusion2:
Bitcoin is a new asset which was not there before 2000's, so we have to see what Bitcoin does as a new class asset.
So, in the past when DXY has Bottomed at 70 -> S&p500 was in sideways for almost 8years with Double Top formation + Bottomed at 2nd Lower low.
1.Is DYX is in Topping process or already Topped or will it Breaksout from the Parallel channel?
As per RSI there is no Divergences formed until now (Jan2023), so Topped or Topping process is not confirmed, but there are chances DXY will create higher highs.
May Breakout also, for this to Analyse DXY need another 6 to 12months time to confirm for Breakout or Breakdown.
2.What will happen if DXY gets topped out during the year 2023 roughly at 120 or something?
If this plays out, then history repeats, not exactly but something similar can happen like the past.
for example, like S&P500 making Double Top formation, create Lower Lows and Bottoming at 2nd lower low.
Bitcoin most probably can also create Double Top Or lower than 69K and 1st lower Low was in 2022-15500usd and 2nd lower Low can be formed in 2023.
3.What will happen if DXY will Breakout massively from the parallel channel to reach 150 or 160?
If DXY Breakouts it forms a new trend, then in Macro Time Frames S&P500 and Bitcoin will be in Uptrend.
Conclusion2:
Actually, compared to past history, after DXY topped out forming Bearish Divergences after than S&P500 formed Bullish Divergences and put its 1st Lower Low.
But currently (Jan2023) DXY did not topped out and did not form Bearish Divergences yet, but S&P500 formed Bullish Divergences (Is this 1st lower low for S&P500?). (Past and current XXX fractal).
Final Thoughts
Will DXY Breaksout to 150 or 160 mark or will it Breakdown to 70 or 80?
For this to confirm DXY needs at least another 6 months duration from now, may be in Q3/Q4 we can get more data to confirm.
Thanks a lot, please like, share and comment if you have any questions or thoughts, please follow me for more updates.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 01
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 01
Welcome us into 2023! May the year bring you much Prosperity!
Market presented scenario (1) Short at rejection of 4094. Due to
the limited movement, levels for the coming week will remain.
Scenario Planning:
1) Short at rejection of 4094 / 3928
2) Long if previous channel + 3502 to 3580 becomes support
(confluence)
Weekly: Low vol down bar close about middle = No supply
Daily: Low vol down bar close at high = No Supply
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4094 3928
3580 3502 3231
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 DEC 12
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 DEC 12
Scenario2 4050 short was good.
Another daily supply bar is observed, with possible
short opportunity
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Short at rejection of 4094 / 3928
2) Long if 3751 / 3580 is supported
3) Rotational trade between 4094 - 3928
4) Take a break for the holiday season - I'll be off for the holidays,
see you in 2023.
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor weakness
Daily: UT supply bar observed for possible short opportunity
H4: Declining volume, chances of whipsaw is high, trade with care
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4094 3928 3751
3580 3502 3350
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 NOV 28
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 NOV 28
Little market participation due to Thanksgiving week.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) If volume is thin, stay out
2) Temporary short if 4050 is rejected
3) Long if support comes in at 3928 / 4050
Weekly: ND up bar close off high = minor weakness
Daily: UT + ND = weakness
H4: Very high vol + narrow spread = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4050 3928 3751
3580 3502 3350
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 NOV 07
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 NOV 07
Market ended the week within an 80pt rotation, pending resolution of
Demand and Supply.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) If market remains in range, trade at boundary of range.
2) Breakout of range: Long if price retrace to test and finds
support
3) Breakdown of range: Short if price retraces to test
breakdown and shows rejection of higher prices.
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand
Daily: Higher vol up bar stopping supply = minor strength
H4: Narrower UHV effort no result down bar followed by
high vol up bar close off high = demand present
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4028 3925 3580
3502 3350
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 OCT 17ES1! SPX500USD 2022 OCT 17
Market testing for demand after breakdown of 3580.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) If market forms a rotation, possible LONG opportunity
with test of 3808
2) Scenario for breakdown: Lower highs observed, or market
hanging around 3580 level. Short on test and reject of
breakdown area (since most breaks are normally false breaks)
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand
Daily: Ave vol down bar closing at low = minor supply
H4: UHV down bar close at low = some demand
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
3903 3808 3580
3502 3350
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profit able trading week.
SNP 500 Short-Term SHORT ExpectationHelp me keep on posting by clicking on BOOST! (it's like "liking")
This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF (IS THE KING)
- ETC
S&P: THE KISS OF DEATH MOVE.Hello traders, welcome to this S&P 500 update. This is my first time analyzing the S&P 500 and I hope it will be helpful.
To analyze this chart, I am using the 21 monthly moving average and the kiss of death pattern.
The S&P 500 is on its way to making a bearish move and it got stronger after the price got rejected below the 21 MA. The actual confirmation came into the picture when the S&P 500 bounce back after the breakdown and got rejected for the second time, this is where the 'kiss of death' pattern took place.
I am not blindly shooting arrows here. In the past, we have seen a similar move happening and that led the S&P 500 to drop around -44% to -53%. Considering the current scenario, if the S&P 500 happens to drop down then we can expect a drop around -50% at 2140 where we have good support.
As we all know that S&P 500 is known to be the best overall measurement of American stock market performance and if this goes down, we know where the market is heading.
That's it from my end. Please do share your thoughts and ideas on S&P 500 in the comments section. I will be honored to know more about it from your end.
Thank you and trade safely.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 25 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 25 Week
ES' short was awesome.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Short on test and reject of 3792 // lower trend line
2) Long if 3540-3600 // 3711 // dotted and solid trend line is supported
Weekly: High vol down bar close off low = minor demand
Daily: High vol down bar close off low = minor demand.
H3: Possible bottom reversal = Demand > Supply
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
3903 3792 3717
3642 3540-3600
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 19 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 19 Week
ES's long trap played out on Monday, later than the other 2 US indices,
before the shorts took over on Tue 13 Sep.
Friday's last 2 H3 up bars happened on very high volume. Keep stops
tight if long as there is likely selling into the up move.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Temporary long opportunity if 3853-3902 is supported
2) Short if test and rejection of rotation area (circled on chart) /
rejection of 4051 / 3981
Weekly: High vol down bar close off high = demand coming in
Daily: Ave vol down bar close toward high = demand > supply
H3: Ultra high vol up demand bar followed by 2 very high vol up bars
= caution as there may be selling into the up bars
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4175 4051
3981 3903-3853 3742
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 12 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 12 Week
Last week's 3903 support provided fruitful long.
We have an engulfing bullish weekly bar. Possibility of continued
upward momentum, for long preference.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Long if 4010 / 4095 is supported
2) Short on trend channel rejection / rejection at 4095 / 4010
Weekly: Ave vol up bar (engulfing bullish) = strength
Daily: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
H4: High vol bar + low vol UT bar = weakenss
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4204 4029
3903 3743
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 05 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 05 Week
Last week's 4071 rejection + channel rejection provided fruitful short.
Currently market is temporarily supported at 3903.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Long if 3903 is supported
2) Short on low vol retracement / rejection at 4080 / 4030 / 3903
Weekly: Higher vol down bar close off low, same spread as previous bar
= demand coming in
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand
H4: Ultra high vol bar + high vol up bar = demand coming in
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4204 4029
3903 3743
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.