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Sp500short

Market Top Within 2 Days Or Less?I am bearish again already (surprise)! The terror in the Red Sea could be the tipping point for future economic calamity now that multiple companies have chosen the longer path to market around South Africa. Going on the premise Minor wave 4 dropped with a quiet whimper, we are possibly in the final Minor wave 5 up. First task is to identify potential tops. The far right percentage levels are the historic retracement levels from a prior analysis for the Cycle wave B top. The solo value to the left is the nearest potential top for Primary wave C (movement extension at 115.13% of Primary wave A). Similar levels for the top of Minor wave 5 are the inner percentage lines on the right. Half of the historic levels are between 4738.57-4794.712. The second study has the most agreement at a top between 4760-4780. Very few models are looking for a top beyond 4785 at this time. Duration models agree the most at 24 hours which was the length of wave 2, but we are in a micro enough of a stage that this level is valid. Another duration pocket is 35-36 trading hours long. Today's close already puts Minor wave 5 at 16 hours long. Third pocket of agreement is 20-22 hours which would occur prior to tomorrow's close. My derivative model has the largest price range at 4770.30-4864.91, tighter range at 4801.75-4854.92, most specific at 4833.20-4844.06. The duration models are at 4-24 hours, 9-22, and 14-18 hours. The final study compares relationships of the other microwaves against similar historical ratios. Minor wave 1 was 0.3174 the movement of Minor wave 3, while Minor wave 2 was 1.1958 times the movement of Minor wave 4. I compared 1:3 values that were 0.28-0.35 and 2:4 values that were 1.1109. This data suggests the length of Minor wave 5 could be between 19-24 hours, with strongest agreement at 22-24 hours. The data suggests the top is no higher than 4797.90, and likely between 4754-4774. I am looking for a possible top in 18-24 hours between 4759-4776. Hour 24 would be the first hour of trading on Wednesday. Last week, when I thought Minor wave 4 was yet to be finished my top was this coming Friday. This move up may be too quick, however, today's new high likely confirms Minor wave 4 had ended prior to my last analysis projecting its end thus making a earlier market top plausible. This theory of the market topping will likely require a few days to confirm which won't be visible until next week, unless the market drops quickly in some regard before this week's end. Happy Holidays as volatility appears ready for a dynamic return!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Safe to forecast next drop yet?Hopefully its time to take another crack at forecasting Primary wave 3 down. Wave 2 started strong and managed to retrace 98% of Primary wave 1 down. I began to have doubts we were in the right place. Still would like a drop below my green trendline here: We finally broke well below the yellow and have created a lower low and lower high. These are early indications we may be in Intermediate wave 1 down inside of the Primary wave 3. A break above 4599 and then 4607 likely puts the market in a different place in wave theory time. Now that Primary wave 2 is longer from a duration standpoint and larger from a movement standpoint, there are some changes to the original Primary wave 3 forecasts. I originally expected Primary wave 3 to bottom in May, but my initial projections a few weeks back placed the bottom in March/April at the latest. The movement extension percentages did not change, nor did their values as that data was predicated on Primary wave 1’s movement. Current forecast is a duration of 900-922 trading hours which would place the bottom around mid- to late-May 2024. The bottom has now risen to a area between 3600-3660. The movement and duration are based on similar wave 1/wave 2 relationships from historical wave theory data. Primary wave 1 was 461 hours long while wave 2 was 162 (as of the high on December 1). This forms a ratio of 2.8457 (461/162). Primary wave 1 moved 503.29 points down while wave 2 gained 495.608 of that back. Ratio is 1.0155 (503.29/495.608). I searched for similar datasets in which the 1:2 duration value was between 2.4 and 3.1; while the movement was between 0.95-1.08. For additional more refined data I shrunk these values to 2.6-2.9 on the duration which provide a tighter grouping of possibilities. These historical wave pointed to an extra 300 hours of duration and bottom around 3550. While I will keep these in mind, I think my historical bottom targets have been too long and too low. I will keep the target around 911 hours near 3630. I have taken the median models to forecast what the movement should look like to get to a bottom of 3630 over 911 trading hours. Intermediate wave 1 appears more realistic as do wave 3. This is more of a perfect world wave placement on the way down but it is based on normal historical movement for Intermediate waves inside of a wave 3. Right now wave 1 could end late this month/early in January around 4220. Wave 2 bounces up near 4475 around mid-January 2024. Intermediate wave 3 should be the big drop we have been looking for and likely drawn out over 2 months. That current bottom aligns beneath 3800. Wave 4 looks to move up toward 4000 by early April and the final bottom is end of May/early June around 3630. At this 3630 bottom there is likely 6 months or less until the final bear market bottom. Things should blast off beginning late in 2024. Here is the current possible path moving forward: I continue to lean on China taking Taiwan as the major driver of downward movement in the first half of 2024 but we shall see. COVID shutdown scares could rattle some industries but likely wont do enough damage this time around as most people desensitized to lockdowns and understand how quickly industries snapped back from COVID declines.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
S&P500 (@ES @MES)We are currently in an upwards rally in the markets With a trend fib being pulled from our larger lows we have a coinciding level of the 50% retracement converging with the top line of our rising wedge which is a bearish pattern (depending on how long this march takes we could meet our golden ratio 61.8% at the top of our wedge creating a yearly double top as a possibility also).....this is purely up to how fast we continue to move higher We must assume price will continue to respect this rising wedge (which is a bearish pattern which breaks to the downside 65%+ of the time) If we break out to the upside we can see a 61.8% retrace and grab a nice throw over or we have a blast of scenario and we march to new all time highs we must wait and see But for now i am expecting a pull back once we hit our 50% fib
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LucrorStrategies
December Selloff No Matter This Week’s MovementWith a few more days of data from the last analysis it is time to lay out the next possible paths. The index and markets are very much so overbought. A downturn is coming. No matter what happens this week, December will likely contain the next selloff. Does it continue tomorrow, or can the market find another new high above 4521 first? I will lay these out along with the reasoning and see which plays out. The continuing theory and first explored here is that Primary wave 2 ended with the top on November 15. If this is true we are somewhere in the early stages of Primary wave 3 which will ultimately move down as covered in the last analysis: Although Thursday continued to move down, Friday nearly lead to a new high which would have completely negated the theory Primary wave 2 was over. That near new high could have been the double top of resistance or a prelude for a new high later. I am trying to determine if the move down on midday Thursday was a micro wave 1 and the preceding move up was a micro wave 2, then at what wave degree was it? Primary wave 3 will be comprised of 5 Intermediate waves which I mark with pink alphanumeric values. The first of the Intermediate waves will contain 5 Minor waves which I mark yellow. The first Minor wave will contain 5 Minute waves which I mark in green. The wave 1 in question moved down 33.34 points after which wave 2 moved up 32.29 points. This was a retracement of 96.8506%. While this movement is common in double-top formations I went to the data to see what could happen next. I sorted my historical datasets to determine when similar retracements in a wave 2 occur in Minute wave series. There were only five occasions thus far in which a retracement greater than 96% occurred. If we just ended Minute wave 3, the likely next stop is a low between 4408 and 4457 over the next 11-49 hours. I then determined how much of the larger wave wave 1 comprises and wave 2 comprise to attempt an early estimate for the placement of Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1’s endpoint. This is the larger white box with the green numeral 5 in it. The estimate is that Minor wave 1 would last between 40-100 hours with a bottom between 4370-4402. This is the theory plotted on the main chart as it is the leading theory, however the movement tomorrow will likely confirm or deny this reality. I further researched the 96% retracement but applied it to one macro level higher. Instead of assuming we were inside of Minor wave 1, I looked at the data if in Intermediate wave 1. I am already thinking we are moving too fast for this scenario, however, using the same data from before and searching Minor wave series there were 10 results. Minor wave 3 could end in the top yellow box and last 9-22 hours ending between 4463-4473. Similar to before, the entire Intermediate wave 1 could end between this Friday and next Tuesday between 4430-4463. This path will greatly shorten the overall length of Primary wave 3 if it plays out. For the third theory, I have moved the end points of Minor wave 3 and 4 around to reflect the ongoing effort of Minor wave 5. On a 30 minute chart, I get a wave 3 signal at 1100 on November 14. While this was originally believed to be a wave 3 signal and where Minor wave 3 ended, it could be the end of Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 3 instead. This could place the end of Minor wave 3 at the current high of 4521.17. Minor wave 4 would have followed at the low of 4487 at 1130 on November 16. Based on the models, most of the duration models are already busted last potential viable window is at wave 5 lasting 14-16 hours. The 16th hours is late Monday afternoon. Most models agree on a top between 4545-4555. As mentioned in a prior analysis, the highest ever retracement for this particular wave set was 89.08% which is at 4552.11 in the current case. Just because this is the maximum does not mean it cannot be broken. Before it was the maximum retracement something lower also held that title. I can also apply my new derivative modelling in solving this Minor wave 3 theory for a separate target area. The broadest area for the derivative model places the top between 4516.74-4538.76 between 2-19 hours. The next more specific target in this model is the yellow box. The most specific box is too small to display, however its values are important to note. The placed the length at 8-10 trading hours between 4520.65-4523.12. The derivative model sets a far lower target than the other modelling system. The most specific target is where the current top in this possible Minor wave 5 sits. It is possible the top occurred as this model projected while falling to move 100% of Minor wave 3’s movement. It is possible for a wave 5 to come close but fail to break above Minor wave 3. This circumstance would also mean the market moves down immediately, however, it cannot be confirmed this occurred until the waves in Primary wave 3 Intermediate 1 finalize to see if they have too many waves or not. Although the derivative model is still being tested, it has been highly accurate. I will move the endpoint for Minor wave 5 and Primary wave 2 below 4540 understanding the top could already be in. Going with the leading theory likely makes Primary wave 3 much longer than the last analysis forecasted which could put it more in line with my initial assessment of a bottom around May-June 2024. Theory two seriously shrinks the size, both duration and drop, to much less than initially forecasted. I currently see this as the least likely scenario. The third scenario would likely be confirmed on Monday or Tuesday this week. A holiday shortened week typically comes with larger price movement on low volume. This could see the new high achieved, however, the next key resistance is 4607 and would be tested quickly and appears to look less likely after this analysis. A new high will further move the market into overbought territory continuing the absolute certainty of a massive drop to follow.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
8
First Projection of Next Stock Market DropOperating under the premise Primary wave 2 was finally finished or will soon, this is the preliminary peak at Primary 3 down. Here is the hourly: I am displaying the daily with the play button so it will be viewable forever on TradingView as the hourly will eventually stop loading (years from now). Things to note, Primary wave 2 was the third largest retracement of a Primary wave 2 inside a Cycle wave C in history according to my mapping of the S&P 500. I did not think it would reach this level, however, multiple models had secondary agreement of the top between 4515-4519 which was quite close. Will teach me not to ignore secondaries again. The initial models are looking at Primary wave C lasting 505-690 trading hours. For this initial projection I plotted the end around 600 hours. The final bottom was projected around 3450, but the median model placed future Intermediate wave 5 below 4400. This current wave structure is based on the initial premise of a 600 hour duration and drop of 1071 points. Again the structure is perfect world symmetrical and not likely totally accurate. I am using this as a guide and will update as we move. Bottom line, something major has to happen especially in the Intermediate wave 3. Initial call is down to 4100 for wave 1, up toward 4325 for wave 2, down to 3700 for wave 3, up to 3900 for wave 4 and final Primary wave 3 bottom around 3385. Will provide deeper analysis over the coming days. What is the cause of this massive projected slide? China-Taiwan? Semi-conductor manufacturing issues? Debt Bubble? Baby Boomer House Downsizing (cannot happen that fast)? More credit rating declines? Russia? US political party uncertainties? New wars? Other Black Swan?
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
5
SP500 Santa RallyIf you check our previous post on the SP500 here you'll see we called the top of the B wave in back in July and since then we've moved down in a leading diagonal to complete wave 1 of C, now we're in the middle of a sharp and fast wave 2 and we believe Friday just gone marked the top of the A wave of this wave 2, we're expecting a pretty quick decline for the B wave followed by a sharp rise to complete wave C of 2 in time for the 'santa rally' but we expect things to start turning sour pretty quickly as the new year approaches and this wave 3 of the larger wave C down will get nasty, very fast. So be sensible if you are looking to go long for the santa rally, don't get caught out with your pants down trying to squeeze every ounce of profit out of this counter trend rally, because when this turns, it's going to turn very quickly and will take no prisoners.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RAA_Trading
Is This Rally About To Crumble?Minor wave 4, if it ended was a dud. But the models indicate Minor wave 5 and the Intermediate A top will come quick. The historical models indicate the market can now top as early as the second hour of trading tomorrow. Minor wave 3 is likely already through wave 3 as seen here: Based on a hypothetical top of 4384 the path in the image above outlines the rough movement. So far, the waves are underperforming this model which could indicate a market top below 4383. The overall analysis above is an early projection on Intermediate wave B's movement assuming Minor wave 5 tops at 4381 and within the second hour of trading on Tuesday. If either of these do not prove true, I will update this analysis tomorrow night. A slightly higher or longer duration to the top will likely raise the Intermediate wave B low and possibly extend Intermediate wave B's length. Strongest model agreement for the wave B bottom rests within 25-29 hours in length. The lowest white rectangle contains the area of most model agreement between 4130-4150. The next strongest is the yellow rectangle which is 4210-4230. The green rectangle is my current target box at 4180-4200. These wave Bs have a history of extending greater than 100% of the preceding A wave which could place the bottom below 4103 although the likelihood is not strong. Based on the projection of a bottom near 4188 in 27 bars, the Minor waves A, B, and C are roughly placed based on historical data. These are nominal placements and most of the time are too perfect and unlucky to occur as indicated. Normally wave A could be longer and wave B shorter or vice versa. The final consideration is the location of Intermediate wave B's endpoint. This movement was originally forecasted to take a slower route, however, the weeklong gains of Intermediate wave A are indicating Intermediate wave B can end before the close on Friday. If this occurs, the final end of Intermediate wave C and Primary wave 2 could end before December 1st as seen here: This would indicate December begins the massive downtrend from ~4430 all the way down to 3400 or lower (over the course of 4-6 months). I will continue to post updates on this original analysis or in new analyses as needed. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
9
US500- Keylevels - DailySpectacular comeback for us500, but now let's see what will happen next week. It seems that it manages to close both the week and the day well and thus leaves room for another climb up to the area of 4398-4400. Here we have an ultimate test for buyers, let's see if they want to leave and collect the profits or if they will still stay in the game. Buyers must show strength at that level as well. As I see the price action, I would like to see a rejection from 4400, followed by a retest of the support from where to take new liquidity and where I will also be a buyer.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by sfc95
SPY - S&P500 - ES: Beware of the reactionDid you made some NYSE:S too following my posts? Great. But... ...now is the time to beware of the slingshot. See, price has fallen quite nicely and we are all happy campers. Now we have to defend our short position, the ground we gained. And here's why: Although price still trades within the red down-sloping Fork, there are some signs that, soon price has reached it's Max-Stretch, which is when P5/0 is in. Could be at the sliding parallel below the Center-Line, or if a little panic hit's the Market, at the L-MLH. From there, the swing count start new, but this time to the upside. We know that if price zoomed through a Center-Line, the potential for a pullback to it is a given fact. From there, price could continue to the downside, or jumps above it and closes above it. That will be a very obvious sign that price has turned to the upside-swing again. Facts: 1. Price has reached the red CL 2. RSI is oversold 3. P5 could be in 4. POC of the Volume-Profile acts as Support On the Weekly picture, price still has a long way to go, until it reaches the Center-Line of the Pendulum-Swing Fork. At the time of this writing about another 400 Points, to 3800/3750. For now, just be alert to protect your profits. Remember: You can't always eat the whole Cake! Better letting the S&P500 reload and then shoot from higher levels again and give our self another Christmas Gift. §8-) Peace4TheWorld
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
A massive selldown is potentially coming for #SP500As the chart progresses, old post was shared wayback Dec 2022 when the index has completed the Wave A leading Diagonal, the 1st impulse of the 3-wave corrective of the bigger cycle. Currently, Wave B might have already topped off on the rejected 4600 zone. I'm seeing a potential 3rd and the last impulsive of the greater corrective cycle which is at an unbelievable level estimated to be around 3276 by May of 2024 as target of the time completion. Disclaimer: Not a financial advise. Idea is only based from the analyst's perspective applying Wave and Time Theories.
TVC:SPXShort
by marketpainterPH
Next Leg Down, Top Next WeekLooks like Minor wave A likely finished today, next up is Minor wave B. Models point to 18-22 hours of possible duration which will likely see the bottom on Thursday. There are a three pockets of interest for the bottom. I used the green box (4281-4294) for the more conservative zone, yellow (4255-4275) for the more aggressive zone and my target is the white box (4270-4285) straddling both boxes. Depending how Minor wave B plays out, Minor wave C and Intermediate wave 4 are currently projected to end early next week between 4355-4390. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
S&P500 on the way to the projected levelHere we are, seeing the projection I posted on my site and here becoming reality. P4 was slightly above the Center-Line. How price is falling through it. Next Target is P5. Either the Warning-Line, or the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. In between I expect a bounce up to the Centerline. Also, keep in mind that we could get a HAGOPIAN! That means, if price is not reaching the L-MLH, and pulling back above the CL, then possibilities are up for a huge move to the North. I took partial profits as shown in my last video on YT today. The rest is riding down to one of the targets. Steak & Lobster Baby! §8-) Wish you all a happy day.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Week starts up, before short bear runCurrent assumption is that Minute waves A and B are complete and the final Minute wave C should bring the market up early this week to complete Minor wave 4. The high for the week should occur prior the close on Tuesday. This analysis will point out the levels and locations to monitor for this event. An early peek of Intermediate wave 3’s final projection is also included. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points, but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly more broad, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. MINUTE WAVE C For the Minute wave C finishing points, estimated end is between the final hour of trading on Monday through the final hour on Tuesday. The general level for the top is 4345-4360, quite a bit of data points to the 4355-4360 area, there is another pocket between 4370-4380 which is the red box. I am not looking for the top that high, but the data says it is possible so it is important to be aware of it. MINOR WAVE 4 Minor wave 4's target box is the larger yellow box (Minute wave C in Minor 4 was the green box which included the white box). The yellow box was larger before the Minute waves inside of it traded. The overlap of both Minute wave C and Minor 4 end points favors the white box which is my target. Once Minor 4 is over, the market should head down to finish Intermediate wave 3 with Minor wave 5. I will forecast Minor wave 5, once data is available and pointing to the completion of Minor 4. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 Intermediate wave 3 will finish with Minor wave 5 and the updated forecast places the now doable target box between 4040-4140. Strongest data is between 4080-4105 which I will assign as the current target. Back at 4450, 4150 seemed like a long shot, but time and a strong third wave make it possible. Short-term jubilation could see the upward finish of Minor wave 4 IF a government shutdown is averted as the current downside to this event is a drop in the US credit rating. Typically, government shutdowns are welcomed and positive for the market, but the country has not been under the threat of a credit downgrade should the event occur. Inflation numbers were up on Friday and should continue to look bad through the end of Intermediate wave 3. The $20+ rise in oil over the past 2 months has not significantly impacted the price of goods yet, the OPEC meeting this week could assist in tipping those scales and sending the market into Minor wave 5 down. Still unsure what causes Intermediate wave 4 to take markets upward from mid-October through likely mid-November. SCHEDULED ECONOMIC NEWS: Monday will have manufacturing data and Fed speakers while not much on Tuesday. This could point to the gains being more on Monday and slowing on Tuesday if not already reversing. Wednesday is a heavy news day. United States PPI data comes out October 11, which is around the projected time of the market bottom and end of Intermediate wave 3. CPI is the following day. If this is the start of the market reversal and movement upward, it would appear the September inflation numbers did not rise. Next FOMC meeting is end of October and could be a key event for the end of Intermediate 4’s rise and begin the next monthlong market drop.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
[EN] W Recession in SP500 // GaliortiTradingThe next crisis will be very similar to that of the 2000-2010 period. At first, the economic crisis will condition a bursting of the technology and fast-growing stock bubble, only to be followed by a financial crisis after a short-lived recovery. First floor: first quarter of 2025 . SP:SPX = 2.470 Second floor: second quarter of 2030 : SP:SPX = 2.100 Soft landing for the next quarters? Don't believe it! Bond market losses, office real estate in USA crisis, Citibank surprise indicators plummeting, manufacturing PMI, investment rate curve , real estate crisis and economic slowdown in China, historical record of credit card defaults (consumer collapse), cash flow difficulties of medium and small banks , reduction of the balance sheet of the FED and other major central banks , the effect of higher oil prices on the economy (restriction of oil production by Saudi Arabia/Russia), increase in the cost of r efinancing the huge public debt due to high interest rates, ....
SP:SPXShort
by GaliortiTrading
Mr. S&P500, it's decision time again.So, here we are, below the red Center-Line. What now? If the Bears are successful, then we go south. Target is the at least the white Warning-Line, or the red Lower-Medianline-Parallel. What ever is hit first. On the other hand, P3 could be in and we get a bounce up for a re-test to P4. This is a tricky situation. Even more because the Nasdaq looks ready for a rebound. What shall we do? To me it's clear: - if I short it, then my stop is above the CL. I don't know where yet, but it will not be super close. I rather play it with Options to give my idea more time, even if we get a bounce for a re-test of the L-MLH (gren) or the white WL. - If I wait for more information, I accept the potential for not being on the Submarine if it tanks. What would I loose? Nothing - there's always another trade. - And finally, on a re-test of the green L-MLH/WL, I can stalk a short from there. Isn't that relaxing, to have so much opportunities? §8-) Play it save Tr8dingN3rds.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd