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How much can you make in 5 years? Money makes money . It's an age-old saying, probably because it's generally true. But starting out as a retail trader can be daunting and at times, frustrating. It takes time to build up a sizable account big enough to allow us to take the leap from trading part time, to full time trading. Something that has kept me motivated over the years is an excel spreadsheet a friend of mine made. It demonstrates how consistent monthly returns can lead from a small and humble account balance, to a huge one. Thanks to the compounding effect. Assuming you don't make any withdrawals, let's see where consistent, conservative trading over 5 years could get you. SCENARIO 1: SHRIMP Starting balance: $1,000 You've traded demo for a while, you've developed a winning formula, and you're ready to put your money where your mouth is. Monthly contributions: $100 A hundred bucks is all you can afford at the moment, after bills and overheads Monthly returns: 8% By being selective in your trades and risking between 1-2% per trade, your conservative approach has allowed you to be consistent so far Year 1: Month 3: $1,484.35 Month 6: $2,220.47 Month 9: $3,147.76 Month 12: $4,315.88 Year 2: Month 15: $5,787.38 Month 18: $7,641.04 Month 21: $9,976.13 Month 24: $12,917.66 Year 3: Month 27: $16,623.14 Month 30: $21,290.98 Month 33: $27,171.11 Month 36: $34,578.39 Year 4: Month 39: $43,909.42 Month 42: $55,663.83 Month 45: $70,471.01 Month 48: $89,123.79 Year 5: Month 51: $112,620.92 Month 54: $142,220.53 Month 57: $179,507.52 Month 60: $226,478.39 Behold! The humble $1000 has been transformed into more than 200k. That's just 4 winning trades a month at 2% per trade. SCENARIO 2: FISH Starting balance: $10,000 So you've got a good chunk of savings lying around and you're ready to get serious with your trading. Monthly contributions: $0 You've stumped up all of your available spare resources into your trading account and you want to enjoy spending any surplus money from your other income streams. Fair enough. Monthly returns: 8% By being selective in your trades and risking between 1-2% per trade, your conservative approach has allowed you to be consistent so far Year 1: Month 3: $12,597.12 Month 6: $15,868.74 Month 9: $19,990.05 Month 12: $25,181.70 Year 2: Month 15: $31,721.69 Month 18: $39,960.19 Month 21: $50,338.34 Month 24: $63,411.81 Year 3: Month 27: $79,880.61 Month 30: $100,626.57 Month 33: $126,760.50 Month 36: $159,681.72 Year 4: Month 39: $201,152.98 Month 42: $253,394.82 Month 45: $319,204.49 Month 48: $402,105.73 Year 5: Month 51: $506,537.42 Month 54: $638,091.26 Month 57: $803,811.22 Month 60: $1,012,570.64 Now it's unlikely that in this situation, you'll be trading pip sizes more than what would bank you 100k in 3 months, but the point is that you can trade conservatively and get to a point where you're earning enough to live like a king in just a few years. Happy trading everyone! Hope this has helped to motivate you and think about trading more conservatively to preserve your capital and think about your long term future. AvidTrader P.S. If anyone would like the real spreadsheet, PM me.
Education
by avidtrader89
3
Why bad psychology might be stopping you from succeedingYou are a Human. This is good. You are capable of making complex decisions. You can identify patterns. You can enter excellent trades. This is also bad. Between your ears is a narcotics factory that will put Heisenberg's mobile meth lab to shame. You've entered a trade. This is it. The BIG one. A one-way ticket to infinite infinity pools. Adrenaline dilates your pupils and switches off your digestive system. Suddenly you're not hungry anymore. Endorphins , stronger than morphine, are spewed out of the pituitary gland. Dopamine released from the middle of your brain means you can no longer hold in your excitement. This trade's a winner! Anandoline kicks in, you're hungry again. There's some the leftover beef bourguigion in the fridge. Who needs speed when you've got PEA ? Shit, the trade's gone sour! Suddenly you're anxious. It must be the serotonin . Being Human is something we can't get away from. But we can learn to master our mind. A recent study by DailyFX analyzed 43 million real trades to measure trader performance. They found that across 15 most traded currency pairs, the majority of trades were successful . Yet traders are still losing. Why? They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. So if you're reading this and it applies to you, you're probably very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities. Over 50% of your trades may well be profitable. Because you're Human and you're awesome. So how can we be more profitable? If your trading strategy has a high strike rate, then a low risk-reward ratio will suit - but you have to let the trades play out. If you don't do this, it will ruin your trading edge. If you fall into this category, then a 1:1 or 1:2 trade will suit you fine. remember to give the trade enough room to breath. I've seen traders make amazing calls, yet they place a stop loss 10-20 pips away from their entry. This is simply not enough. If you're not so confident with your trading strategy and you've not been consistently making winning calls, you first might want to learn from people that know more than you. Knowledge is power! The second thing you might want to do is have a slightly higher risk-reward ratio (1:2 or 1:3, even 1:4). If you fall into this category, try identifying excellent setups on the Daily or even Weekly charts. Trading on the hourly charts and expecting 1:4 trades to come in every time simply won't work. Set your stop and take, and leave it alone. Close your laptop and enjoy a caipirinha by the pool. Happy trading everyone, AvidTrader
Education
by avidtrader89
Correlation Trading - How to Trade Forex With Little to No Risk!Tonight we did a live stream on YouTube offering an in-depth explanation of correlation trading. You can watch the stream back in its entirety here www.youtube.com Below will be a written explanation of correlation trading utilizing the AUDJPY vs. NZDJPY as the example: Correlation trading is an amazing way to add diversification to your trading portfolio and in your trade plan. You can continue your trading plan and strategy but take advantage of correlation trading opportunities as they arise to increase your ability to profit from the forex market. In correlation trading the objective is to find currency pairs that are highly correlated, meaning that when one pair moves in any given direction the other pair also moves in that same direction. A great example of this would be the AUDJPY vs. the NZDJPY. Over the past year the correlation between the two pairs has been very positive, 92% of the time over the past year the two pairs have been moving in sync with one another. This correlation can be confirmed by using the Oanda correlation chart: Once you have confirmed that you are looking at two pairs that are highly correlated to one another, you will want to then look into the charts and compare the price action over the past year. TradingView makes this very convenient with the ability to overlay charts. When we overlay the NZDJPY chart on the AUDJPY chart (candlesticks=AUDJPY, bars=NZDJPY) we can clearly see the times of the year when the two pairs were moving very much in sync and the times where the correlation cracked a bit and the two pairs moved oddly in opposing directions. It is during these times when the correlation cracks that provides us with the immensely profitable and essentially risk free trading opportunities. If you notice on the chart throughout the past year you will see highlighted in yellow boxes all of the times when the correlation has cracked and a gap has formed. We can look at these moments and estimate the average maximum gap in correlation and use this information to gauge when to take a correlation trade on this pair. You will notice every time the correlation has cracked and a gap in price action has formed, price inevitably moved back in correlation narrowing and even closing the gap You will also notice if you look back at the widest portion of the gap from every time there was a crack in correlation that it has been roughly anywhere between 400-500 pips . If we look at the second to most recent gap in correlation that we have labeled on the chart you will notice that at its widest point the gap in price was roughly 600 pips; the high being at 85.500 and the low being at 80.700. If we were watching this occur as it was happening and we noticed the gap in correlation approaching 400 pips and then 500 pips and then 600 pips, forming the widest gap in correlation all year, we could then look to take a correlation trade between these pairs. In this given example around 3/11/16 we would look to take equal positions of long NZDJPY and short AUDJPY banking on the fact that the gap in correlation should statistically, with 92% likelihood, narrow and potentially even close completely so that the two pairs are moving back in correlation with one another. You will see that if we did this we covered on 3/30/16 we would have netted ourselves a fruitful profit of 300 pips. Our short position in AUDJPY would have been down about 20 pips or so but our long in NZDJPY would have been up about 340 pips. This profit came with little to no direction risk because as one position goes against you the other statistically should go in your favor and if you are not netting a profit at any given moment your loss should be simnifically reduced as compared to what it would be if you were only holding the losing position.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn261897
13