Get started

Trends

QUANTUM SLOWNESS - WHAT NEXT?Hopefully this post is both educational and entertaining. I was having a discussion on line about the advantages of quantum speed trading - and how it has a greater power than the human brain. For sure it is more powerful at number crunching. But quantum slowness is about trends! Look at the lovely 15 min trend. No big muscle computing power required. Just your plain slow eyes. If you had hugged that 15 min amber trend line on the break out of bad news, you would have been sitting very happy, after 24 hours. So - true trend-followers do not care about brute force computing power. The human mind is superior for trends. Any arguments? Some will be asking me what's next? How would I know? I don't have any ownership of the future. Ask your friendly guru out there - not me! :) :) Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
3
Buying vs Selling Pt1- COLOR, Most have it completely backwardsI'm making a little educational series of tutorials to put some of my trading philosophies into writing for myself but also to help teach anyone interested or provide a fresh perspective to others. Let's start with COLOR . From indicator lines, fill regions, background colors, arrows, to barcolors (be it from an indicator or just the basic candle), most traders are looking at a green candle and a red candle in reverse. Novice traders see a big fat candle and think, "Wow, lots of BUYING" then see a huge red candle and think, "Lots of SELLING". I think we inherently associate green with money and like to see lots of green when we have long positions. And then we associate red with emotions of fear and panic, bad things. Let's have a look at a chart of SPY using the "Ehlers Instantaneous Trend" with ribbon and barcolor to help identify trends and paint them the color we are accustomed to seeing- Very quickly I'm sure a lot of people think the coloring makes sense and might be looking up the Ehler indicator right now (it is a really cool one so go ahead). What we're seeing is this- Most of the time the green candles have been when SPY has been rising Most of the time the red candles have been when SPY has been falling Seems natural to buy when you see these green candles going up and sell/avoid buying when you see red candles going down. The problem is that that's what dumb money does! They buy when smart money is SELLING. Those green candles are actually the result of a smart buyer who timed things correctly and bought at the lows and is now 1) holding onto their shares, 2) waiting for sell signals. And when those red candles start showing up, dumb money gets all panicky and starts selling their shares. They might wait for closing cost to fall beneath a moving average or some other indicator, then they start selling and voila- capitulation. The price those sellers get is probably not great and when it's all said and done was not very much above what their entry price was. But as people are selling, smart money is BUYING. They are fishing for a bottom to start accumulating shares. They look for really 'red' days with lots of volume, a perfect cocktail of emotion that gets weak hands to tremble and chase the price down before capitulating and selling for whatever price they can get. And usually when this is occurring, the bottom forms. Let's reverse the colors of the bars and start seeing things through the lens of smart money- Now if you are still associating green with buying and red with selling, the world should make much more sense. When the candles turn green here you're a buyer and when they turn red you're a seller. That doesn't mean buy the first candle and every candle, all the time, every time. It means that is when you are waiting patiently for the most opportune moment to buy. And when these candles are red you aren't freaking out and selling, you tell yourself "I am looking for moments when I can take some profits off the board when we get really crazy moves up, and maybe replace some of those shares with a few new shares I purchase at lows or on some bad days". The point is that this is a selling phase. I will go into depth as to why selling phases go up*, because I know that's a concept that people struggle with psychologically. (* there's two kinds of selling, as well as buying, which we'll get into). Here are some close-ups on candles and their default colors- Same chart, colors flipped -
AMEX:SPYEducation
by chrism665
11
Mistakes not to MakeI'm gonna try and keep this short. Today is the start of a HUGE trading weekend, and I still have to get ready and head up. Anyways. Look at my charts again. This is the 1H tf. I kept all the successful and failed trade setups I entered with annotations for justification, etc. There are a couple things to do that I didn't. 1) Recognize the larger trend. That I did. it's heading down, with rallying points along the way. 2) Always wait for the break and retest. Every move the market makes is a break and retest of some sort. What's the direction? What's the larger trend? Does the market look like it is? Questions to ask yourself when looking at a chart 3) Remember those long candles I mentioned in my last post? Those would be the perfect time to enter the sell. You'll notice too, there's a red harmonic on the chart. That's on the 15min tf. Pull it down, you'll see it. Once that was completed, and the PSAR flipped above the candles, yeah, that was the point when the two long sell candles developed. Those show the breakout. Along bullish or bearish candle is the sign of a breakout, so those are the best times to come in. Me, now, even after seeing that, I entered. That was my big mistake. Before when I entered on a trade it was before the pullback was completed. Here it just looked like it was too late. 4) It also pays to know your trading style, and If you use indicators to know the settings that would work for you with that style. 5) Also, also, it pays to recognize when your chart is getting too complicated for you to read. I know some traders whose charts are *packed*. Others keep things minimal. I think at this point, mine is a bit too much, so i may have to start over my analyses fresh.
Education
by kayleighramesar
4
I have to post this apparently...Not that it will make a difference with 90% people... At least it gives me some practice. Always good. No point for me writting a large textwall explaining everything simply, those that need this do not read it or understand it anyway. I am not a trend expert. I am not a trend trader. I find it simpler to find reversal points at support at the end of corrections and typically miss the meat of the moves. Some people do this, most (successful) follow the trend, whatever works for you is good. What you have ease doing. But I think I am qualified enough to explain what a trend is. Plus I study them all the time to try and figure out where the pullback ends. Let me make a few drawings a 5 years old can understand: Now, let me take this 1 step up, making it a little harder, but still with a simple drawing even the people raging at me can understand. Now, I will make it slightly harder once again. Let's take it one step further. If anyone is having difficulties, start back at point 1. Now, to the next lesson, lets combine the 2: Putting it all together: There are exceptions: Some practical exercises: Are you biased? Or are you not? Trends are easy, corrections are hard. Only 1 type of trend. 21 types of corrections. Can look like this: Or like this: Or like this: Not like this, it cannot look like this: Or like this:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
106
The 3 types of trendSummary Introduction Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Conclusion Introduction Trends are not created equal, there are 3 types of trends, I am not a trend trader that much but I can identify trends and tell the difference. This is what I know about myself: 1- Strong trends Examples: Ways to define these strong trends - Eyesight - With a momentum indicator (not a fan) - With a trendline - With moving averages As you can see, there are not many pullbacks with this type of trend - once it pullsback it is a reversal often, so how best to participate in this? 2- Medium trends Not going as much in detail here, don't care so much. Plus you get the idea anyway. Medium trends are not as awesome, they get quite choppy. Just not as good to participate in, in my opinion. Examples: Same ways to define it, but trendlines have smaller angles, RSI not as high, and use EMA 50 rather than 20. Ideas to trade, similar with 1 big exception: 3- Weak trends Ooooh what's that smell? I could trade it like a consolidation with a bear bias (only go short) in a downtrend? NO! In this EURUSD example you can see tops go lower, then higher, then lower. It is not clear, super choppy. The price is generally going down, but there are no good entries. Unless you do not mind a risk reward of 1 while trading a daily chart... The thing that makes holding weeks > get in and out is you can get high risk rewards, cumulate uncorrelated positions (which reduces overall risk), hence increase your profit without having more risk.. (Bonus) The "I am going to zero" trend Summing up: About the 3/5 group of strategies I have posted: 1/5 (The 4 kinds of bottoms) = Supply & Demand 2/5 (Buying pullbacks style) = Trend following / Troll strategies 3/5 (Trend continuation breaks) = (Strong) Trend following
Education
by MrRenev
S&P 500 entering an ORDER BLOCK | TAPE READINGThe price is edging up. If you look closely, you will see an Elliot 5 Wave impulse. If you know about fractals, you should have that in your trading arsenal because the Elliot Wave principle is a natural, sensational and accurate tool in 'forecasting' price action. The waves move in harmony according to the Fibonacci patterns and spirals. The Fibonacci is the actual backbone of the Elliot wave principle (although i haven't included it in this price level - even though I have, by virtue of Elliot). The US economy is projected to be moving down. With the recent trade wars, French (fuel) tax riots, weakening global demand, drop in oil, and massive debt, the US should start a process of deleveraging soon. The SPX is reflective of the global economy. The markets have been rising this year, the biggest performers in the upcoming quarters should be emerging economies by virtue of the law of diminishing returns. The global landscape is changing right before our eyes as China takes the stage as the the leading super power. Overall, Trump's Trade War was a misdirected battle that's turning out to be a blessing for all emerging economies because it's happening on the backdrop of President Xi's aggressive, futuristic and rather ambitious One Belt One Road Initiative. The global landscape is going to be shaped by the actions of changing global movement and emerging drivers in the global macro economy.
SP:SPXEducation
by Money_Lab
The importance of the trend: SAR indicatorHello all, I could talk about price or something, but I'm not in the mood for that today. Instead, I'd like to share with you all how I use the stop and reverse points (SAR) to identify trends and give me an edge in trading. Of course, we have all heard the phrase, "the trend is your friend." Well, it's true. Of course, trends break and at some point following them can lose you money, but in terms of the big picture, following trends is pretty wise: you will be right more than you are wrong if you manage your downside appropriately. There are a few metrics to identify a trend objectively, and one of them is the SAR indicator I am using. If you had solely been trading off of this indicator, you would be doing well for yourself. Of course, this doesn't always happen in every market this well and it's not perfect like anything else, but it is a very good trend indicator. When the dots are above the price, that means you are in a downtrend and of course, if the dots are below the price, then you are in an uptrend. This is extremely useful and tells you the following: if you are betting against the overall direction of the SAR, you are probably wrong. The SAR is therefore a great tool to be using to see if you have a correct outlook in terms of the big picture. In terms of what it says in this chart, it is saying bitcoin is bearish... well no shit, but look at when it first started saying it was bearish: price was much higher. If you subscribed to the narrative that bitcoin was forming a smooth bottom and was about to moon, this would have been a great head's up. This is a big reason I was able to see this large crash coming and avoid accumulating bitcoin spot at $6,000. Of course, I looked at other factors, SAR just is one of them. As you can see, I was leaning bearish and I saved my ass a ton of money as a result because the price then plummeted 50%. Risk management is a thing, but if you are like me and are looking to accumulate bitcoin at certain levels, then maybe 6k would have been one of them. As a result, you would have been dead wrong. I am not a genie, I do not make money by being able to see the future, I am successful by doing the following well: 1. Not lose money (you can't bet the house on a trade) 2. Get into trades that give you a good probability of winning SAR is a tool to help you do the second. Hope this helps, -YoungShkreli
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by CantorTechnologies
2
VERY IMPORTANT! How to see if a rally is Real or Fake!So many people blame the unpredictable price moves on the whales. (As if the whales aren't investors, too). In lack of better words these people are blaming the unknown for their failure to understand the market's environment. Not to mention spending hours or days over-analyzing a fake rally that is 100% going to deflate So, Dogecoin Shill, what do I do to become a super advanced trading master like you!? Google trends. Go to trends.google.com, type in bitcoin. The bitcoin chart on google trends looks identical to the 1 year chart of bitcoin. As bitcoin's popularity increases, new money comes in and drives up the price. The charts have had one noticeable inconsistency in the last year, which is this recent rally. Bitcoin's price went up 50%, but the popularity stagnated and actually decreased a bit. I took short position at $9k, and tried to post something here at the time but couldn't do it (I'm still figuring out this website) , and I apologize to my followers for that. If you were following me before, I predicted this recent rally in early April when i went long. Leave a like and follow, I do not post on here unless I am extremely confident in my predictions, and if I've already taken the buy or sell position. Peace! -Doge
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Dogecoin_Shill