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UNG

NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Chart is Forming a TopBullish factors: NG Natural gas price has been rallying for the past month reaching $2.5 level on increased consumption during summer months, improving LNG flows reaching 5.1 bcf/d in mid-August, and two tropical storms in the Gulf area threatening natural gas production. The fundamentals remain bullish going into mid September. Bearish factors: Production is steady at about 92 bcf/day, while consumption has been declining to 83 bcf/day lately on cooling temperatures. Two tropical storms, Marco and Laura, are not expected to produce substantial disruption to natural gas production, but may produce loss in demand due to cooling temperatures and power outages. Technical analysis: Divergence between price and volume is pointing toward a potential top. On a daily chart, RSI is above 70, approaching overbought territory. We have an unclosed gap at $2.77 level, which may be the next top. National demand is expected to be cooling going into September. Overall demand will be driven largely by LNG exports, which are expected to remain steady at around 5 bcf/day, 10-20% below levels seen in the fall of 2019. The forward curve seems to be pricing in a more robust recovery in demand than actually observed.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
Yeah, its an unfortunate confluence nowAn overhead resistance and a tweaked channel have colluded to make a an area that looks like a strong short for natural gas. The bars have changed colour and I think it could be a nice short play. I have not year decided how far this will go, please remember I have previously stated we are possibly in a bear flag. Also, don't misunderstand - I am bullish on natural gas long term, but since its breakout from its huge decline it could be time for a breather!
AMEX:UNGShort
by DanjaZown
2
The Natural Gas Bull Market May Have BegunUNG had a spectatcular move the other day (once again I was on the wrong side of the trade but I the ship has been corrected). Rather than buying shorts after a rise in UNG, it appears like a bull market is starting so dips must be bought. The massive descending triangle going back to 2017 seems to have been broken with an open and close on the daily charts. Worringly though there appears to be a small bear flag on this breakout, so don't get disheartened. So long as we stay above the maroon line we should be all right.
AMEX:UNGLong
by DanjaZown
4
Natural Gas - Winter ContractsWinter contracts for Natural Gas are already trading near the pivotal $3.00 level. If Winter this year turns out to be average prices will likely sell off towards $2.50 (the 200 Day EMA). However, if production continues to fall and Winter is cold enough, prices can break above $3.00 and complete the parabolic move that is forming. If the latter happens, I see prices for December(Z) contracts topping out around $3.10 - $3.30 February(F) I see topping out around $3.40 - $3.60 I'm looking for a buying opportunity on the December contract and praying for a cold November to sell it in.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ryan-snk
Natural Gas - Winter 2020-21 UpdateOn June 3rd I posted my strategy for trading Natural Gas this coming Winter (linked below). As prices slowly drift lower, it looks like traders are beginning to accumulate long positions. I've opened a long position on the December(Z) E-mini contract and might add 1 or 2 more over the next couple months with the sell target up around $3.30ish. Will see how it plays out. I chose the December contract because the volume on the E-mini is extremely thin on the January and February contracts. +1 @ $2.76
NYMEX:NGZ2020Long
by ryan-snk
Natural Gas - Bought the DipNatural Gas prices got hammered this past week. There's too much supply and not enough demand however, prices are near the bottom of the trading range and Summer heat should give prices a boost soon. It's also worth mentioning that the Dollar DXY is trending lower and which is bullish for all commodities. Prices are breaking out of a downtrend so I've opened a long position on the September(U) contract. It's nearing the end of the month and the August(Q) contract will expire soon. +1 @ $1.725 ($QGU20)
NYMEX:NGU2020Long
by ryan-snk
Natural Gas - Buy the HeatHot weather will likely boost Natural Gas prices in the near term so I opened a long position after price broke above $1.80 again. $QG - E-mini Natural Gas Futures +1 @ $1.815 Sell Limit -1 @ $1.94 Additionally, the MACD is showing bullish momentum on the 4hr chart and prices are being supported by the 50 and 200 EMA. If price clears $1.83 I see the momentum taking it up to $1.94 at the very least and $2.04 at the most. Should prices fall I might buy more and average down my cost basis since I don't think prices will stay down for very long under these conditions. weather.com
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!Long
by ryan-snk
UNG: NG Natural Gas Declining Through Summer on Low DemandNG Natural Gas August futures contract has been declining on cancelled LNG shipments and low national demand. US supply keeps steady outpacing demand. US demand started improving on June 21st due to reopening of NY-NJ-PA economies. However, Texas extended its lockdowns, counteracting positive effect of the East Coast. Seasonal heat is high. But with 40-50 August LNG shipments cancelled, the market may remain in oversupplied state for months to come. August 24th may be a potential turning point for natural gas. Prices are likely to continue decline under current oversupplied conditions. Analysts see target support at $1.25, 1995 low, and then at $1.00, all-time low. Resistance is seen at $1.52, and $1.60 levels. Technicals: Daily chart is pointing to a neat-term bottom with potential upward move within declining channel. NG rolled into August contract, which was trading higher than July contract, which could explain a Friday pop. There is a possibility for a near-term price improvement to $1.65- $1.75 level (tentative), between July 1st and July 17th, with continuing decline after mid July.
NYMEX:NGN2020
by tradexchart
Natural Gas - Summer 2020As of now, expecting lots of chop within a range between $1.50 and $1.83 all Summer. Supply is abundant and demand is slow however, bankruptcies from 25-year low prices will soon take chunks out of production and demand may have bottomed already. Hot weather forecasts in high demand states (the South and Northeast) should also pop prices. Risk to the downside is if New York starts locking down again, signalling more demand loss on the way. Trade strategy: Buy near the bottom of the range and sell near the top and/or on bounces from the 200 (4hr) EMA If there is a daily close below $1.50 or some kind of big push below that level I'll close all positions. Active trades ($QG Natural Gas E-Micro Futures): +1 @ $1.53
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!Long
by ryan-snk
NG: UGAZ: Natural Gas Consolidating Lower. Demand Improving.NG Natural Gas July futures contract continues declining on recent lower demand. Fundamentals are still bearish: low LNG exports, 4 Bcd vs 9 Bcd in the winter, and cooler weather over North East. The temperature is expected go higher on June 25-28, per NatGasWeather. With economy reopening on June 20-21, EIA weekly report may turn bullish in the 1st week of July. The chart is oversold; buyers are coming in at $1.60 level. Last week build was 93 bcf. A build below 90 bcf would be a bullish sign. A short-covering rally may happen soon in anticipation of improving demand. Lower prices are still possible, if LNG exports do not improve, or weather does not prove to be hot enough. Yet, reopening of the economy should boost demand significantly moving into July.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
NG: Natural Gas Further ConsolidationNatural Gas NG July futures bounced last week on warmer weather and production cuts. On Friday we saw a pullback, as weather forecasts lost some CDDs (cooling degree days). UNG fund started August contract roll on June 12 -17. Technicals: Daily and 4 Hr chart are pointing toward lower prices; 1 Hr chart is forming a bottom. We may have a short-term bounce from lower levels, but overall direction is pointing toward lower prices, or consolidation. Fundamentals: demand/supply balance remains bearish in the near-term; prolonged heat is required to produce a rally in prices, although the number of rigs has declined by 7. Second half of June was expected to be hotter per last week's forecast, but on Friday, weather pattern turned cooler, with lower demand for cooling. Until the next heat wave emerges, we may be facing lower prices. Crude oil prices are declining due to high inventories build and worries about slow economic recovery, adding to the bearish picture. On the positive note, economy is reopening in higher consumption states, NY, NJ, and PA on June 20th. Weekly EIA report capturing this period may show higher consumption two weeks from now. Until then, a strong prolonged heat wave is required to change current bearish price pattern.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
UGAZ: NG Demand Rising. Positive Divergence?Natural gas demand is rising due to electric power sector demand increase. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 3.9% compared with the previous report week. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 10.1% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 5.9%. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.3% week over week. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 4.8%. (Data from EIA report, last week). Technicals are showing a positive divergence between momentum and price; MACD is showing higher bottoms (coiling) while NG prices continue to consolidate. A potential for a break to the upside? Waiting for Thursday EIA report. This week residential demand is continuing to rise because of hot weather. Industrial sector is also picking up due to reopening. Hurricane reduced production by 1 bcf, although produced delays with LNG exports. Fundamentals are turning bullish, although we are still oversupplied. May need another 2 weeks of growing demand to overcome high storage build.
NYMEX:NGN2020
by tradexchart