Natty - Don't fish.There is zero reason to bottom fish here yet. This is where patience on a long entry will save you a lot of headaches. There is still no clear divergence (RSI & MACD) indicating that this "could" be the bottom.
As you can see, the "rally" we had this morning is all gone, suggesting another leg lower. I've updated the natty chart with a clearer channel. I'm waiting on better signals for an entry.
UNG
Natural Gas. Looking it over. How it looks to me.Natural gas is such a great clean source of energy. A favorite for homes. Likely someday will power cars as well. Hard to believe longer term it will not become more expensive. But currently clearly in a shorter term downtrend (down about 5% today so far).
Looking at the daily chart it looks like we have already had a 5 wave up move and are now are in a abc correction. IFFFFFF correct when the correction is over I would expect at least one more 5 wave up. The colored target box seems is where I think the correction may well stop. Will be watching for positive candles or down trend line break.
Hope this will be helpful. Take care. Have a good week.
NG1! - 2hrStrong reaction out of the support box (see prior idea) may indicate wave cir-ii is complete. Stop at last low. Initial target is resistance in wave (i). Hold a corrective pull-back for (ii) and this could fly in wave (iii) of cir-iii of 3.
Green fibs are updated, matching the minute waves. White fibs are measured off of the presumed 1-2.
I'm In! Nat Gas $UNG. See The Trade HereWhat an epic fall on natural gas lately. The commodity tracking ETF $UNG has collapsed from $9.65 to its current $7.00 in the last month. This is a whopping drop of 27%. I love collapses like this because it means there will be a big bounce. If an investor or trader can analyze the commodity chart correctly, there is huge money to be made. I did it. After analyzing the chart, natural gas is a buy here. I am in fact buying $UGAZ, a 3X Long Natural Gas ETF. This is riskier but gives you more payout on a hard bounce. Note the stock chart below to see the awesome support level being hit.
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NG1! - 1hMissed this rally. Saw the possibility but didn't like the probability.
Trade ideas: A corrective pullback in wave (ii) holding support would be an aggressive entry. An impulsive i-ii setup off the (ii) is safer ( better defined stop). Taking out the presumed coming wave (i) high is safest with stop below wave (ii).
NG1! - 2hrGreen count looks busted. Purple/pink count looks low probability. I'm on the sidelines waiting for a decent set-up to trade against. Either a bounce off the lower green 2 target or perhaps pink (ii) after 5-up for wave (i). Open to other ideas if you have them. Nasty corrective slop is what I see at the moment.
NG1! - 4hrRetrace hit c=100% a target and reacted overnight. Possible i-ii set-up formed during trading hours.
Earlier today I attempted a swing trade entry long UNG Sep 7.5 calls. The difference in my green and purple count is academic for this trade as I'll likely exit on wave (iii) of either purple 1 which might be wave iii of (i) in green 3 (not annotated).
FCG: Potential upside is hugeWe can take a long at market, or wait for 26.09 to get hit to jump in this trade. Stops should be below 23.55 to be safe. Target the 38 handle give or take. It's worth considering this setup, specially if NGAS resumes the uptrend.
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Ivan Labrie
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Natural Gas Pullback then LongAfter a mega run, Natural Gas needs to take a break and will be pulling back before beginning a new run upwards, likely toward the $6 range... it might not go that far, but it's going to have a lot of power behind it once it reverses. The daily time frame has broken the uptrend in COG and CMF, so the uptrend should end. I believe that Natural Gas will be one of the top performers in commodities over the next few years and I think that in a few weeks we will have an opportunity to get a great entry. Check out my last natural gas idea from two months ago. It was when I was first implementing my trading strategy and I really liked the Natural Gas chart, but it threw me a curve and I bailed... it has been frustrating to watch it go up like it has, but I've tried to learn from it.
Closing the overgap likely to create resistance $UGAZ We seeing bullish rotation of the "point of control." Be aware of the overhead "gap" that remains as it will be an opportunity for trapped longs to exit trades with minimal losses.
We will likely see longs who accumulated through Mar/Apr/May take some profits. These actions are likely to create some near term resistance. This may also result in prices dropping to confirm support and build additional market structure around $8 base before attempting higher price discovery.
Good Luck!
bulls attempting to absob supply $UGAZ $DGAZ $NG_FBulls are attempting absorb the supply evidence by the higher lows present. The theme remains that demand exceeds supply.
Given that prices closed on support I believe a LONG entry is reasonable with a "tight stop" as shorts are buying into resistance.
I believe we are seeing strong hands maintain their positions while new entries respect that they are chasing while a few shorts sneak in.
I still don't feel rushed to enter carelessly into the "widow maker."
My re-entries are noted below.
Good Luck!
Theme remains bullish but are longs buying risk here The theme remains bullish for "natty" as we rally off of support after identifying bullish absorption. We can see 3 months of ACCUMLATION here so it difficult to estimate an upside target but we can identify some anticipated levels of resistance at $8.00, $8.30 & $8.80 as well as "gaps" created during the "markdown."
We saw a decrease in cumulative selling following buy our first increase in buying demand since March 2016. Again this looks bullish.
Despite this great "rally" the ease at which prices continue to trade higher is contracting while volume remains pretty constant so I speculate we are seeing some profit taking here. We will like return to $7.00 and shake out weak bulls while assessing how much supply remains available to control before we sustain any more gains.
The volume profile (purple area on the right) defines "value" and is showing that prices are entering a "low volume area." This could allow prices to test the $8.00 level then we can appreciate that prices are trading above "value" and likely encounter shorts and long liquidation. This process of test and retest will continue allowing rotation of the "point of control high" allowing balance to be maintained among buyer and sellers.
MY OPINION: New longs are chasing and entering a trade exposed to downside risk. I would wait for an entry confirming support.
Good Luck!