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Bitcoin, Bonds, Gold and StocksIn this educational idea I will talk about the current state of the global economy and how Bitcoin fits in. Most people don't realize how bad the current situation is. It could last for a few more years, as we have reached a new level of madness. Right now people are buying bonds which are so expensive, that there is no way they will get anything out of them. Not only they won't get anything, but they will get less money back at maturity. They do this only because they think somebody else is going to buy them at a higher price. Bonds have risks so they should have a yield, but now they are yielding almost nothing. Even Greek bonds are yielding 2% and they are extremely risky. Imagine paying so much for something that could cost you everything. This is definitely a bubble that could last for quite some time until everything snaps. The on going war on cash will only ramp up and we are on the verge of a cashless society. There is no way banks can survive negative interests rates without collapsing. Low interest rates have damaged them very badly as they are struggling to make a return, and negative interest rates would totally destroy them as people withdraw their money. So a ban on cash is inevitable in order for such an event to be avoided. This will have a profound effect on bonds as people will prefer them from keeping their money in a bank. Not only this, but Central banks will also most likely keep on printing money and buying bonds, pushing their price even higher. All this along with aging population, too much debt and pension funds being unable to make real returns are a very explosive mix that is ready to explode any time. We are seeing this especially with European banks like Deutsche bank, as well as European nation states having problems with growth. With the Fed making its first cut in 10 years, the situation in Hong Kong getting worse and with the HKD and CNH losing their 'pegs' to the dollar also very bad signs. Not only that but there is an on going global USD liquidity crunch that is most likely going to push the dollar higher, and make people that borrowed dollars in a very tough spot. At the same time US is at full employment which is usually a point where things start trending down from that point onward. So far we are seeing US stocks having crazy valuations with their P/E ratios at pretty high levels and with large caps leading the way. This probably due to all the indexes out there, people preferring large names as a 'safe-haven' or simply larger companies having cheap access to capital to buy back their own stocks. This means that smaller companies are not following and this isn't a good sign. It shows weakness and sign that the economy is overleveraged. Central banks have muted returns by supposedly lowering risk and protecting the economy, but this has made lots of people and funds increase their leveraged positions in order to get better returns. Not only that, but US stocks are up 30% over the last 2+ years, while for UK stocks have been pretty much stuck for almost 10 years. The US economy is the biggest in the world and it is struggling, while others have been in serious trouble. The US can't remain unaffected by what is happening around it forever. From Powell's speech it is clear that the global picture is not looking good and the Fed is clearly 'worried' about it. Now let's get to Gold. Since 1460 it became obvious to me that Gold would continue higher. To me Gold's bubble hadn't truly popped (didn't correct completely), but I was totally discounting how much credit and money has come into the global economy through banks and central banks over the last 20 years. Based on that alone someone could say Gold is undervalued and with the current situation it could trend higher as a safety trade. Most fundamentals point to gold being the safety trade and not the Dollar, but so far we don't know how the world react if the dollar starts going higher. Right now it isn't impossible to see both of them go higher as it has happened over the last few months. As the world is moving into more insanity, everything should be expected. In another analysis of mine I mentioned the issues I see with Gold and why we'll never see a functioning gold standard. Long term it is too problematic and during a crisis central banks could end up dumping a lot of it. A dump could come simply due to the fact that many institutions hold it and could be used as collateral. So far many central banks have been buying, but we don't know when will they be forced to sell their stock piles. People think Central Banks can't fail, but they certainly can. They are buying an asset that is actually a threat to them if it keeps appreciating. They buy gold low so that they can regulate their currencies by selling later. Currently trust in central banks is currently at an ATL and many people are questioning their effectiveness in managing monetary policy. So far my analysis is about the current issues I see in the economy. Now let's see what how you could protect yourself in case things turn bad, because just knowing that bad things are coming is pointless. You need to know how to defend yourself. The things I will mention will allow you to capture some upside too and not just protect yourself. It will be a low risk strategy that in my opinion is well diversified. Personally like I mentioned before I am all in on BTC and that won't change, but if I wasn't, here is what I'd be doing: First of all you want something they can't control, they can't censor, they can't inflate, they can't shut down, that you can have anywhere you go with you, that they can't detect, that allows you to pay people worldwide nearly instantaneously, that is easy to verify if it is genuine by yourself, that is impossible to counterfeit or charge back, that you own and hold yourself (there is no counterparty risk), easy to store, provides you with more privacy that paypal, you can buy goods your government might disapprove and so on. Now think which of these things can gold do and which ones Bitcoin can do. Regardless of what you think about Bitcoin viability, it is always good to have some in case it succeeds. Bitcoin will most likely give you nice upside to your entire portfolio while also protecting you from government and central bank madness. You don't know when will they ban cash, You don't know when your government will default. You don't know when hyper inflation will occur. You don't know when the stock market will crash after a 10+ year rally. With all the above you can see why Bitcoin is better than Gold and why you should own some Bitcoin. Its current performance is also very telling about its future potential. Now in case you want to diversify I'd recommend to mostly stay away from most bonds, stocks, banks, real estate, most fiat currencies and most commodities. Here is what I think is best for those that like diversification and low risk: - 80% in Bitcoin, Gold, US Dollars and Yen - 20% split in several things based on your risk appetite a) USD/USDT loans on crypto currency exchanges like Bitfinex, Poloniex, Liquid and Gate. Better yields than bonds and they pay daily interest . Are also very easy available to convert to any crypto any time. Many are strong, liquid and regulated, meaning the risk of default is pretty low. b) Silver and Gold stocks. Silver has been pretty low compared to gold and its chart looks pretty good. Gold stocks could also perform really well, but you need to pick them very carefully. View these two as a leveraged Gold long position. c) Stocks that historically perform well during a recession or provide services valuable in hard times. Buying already cheap stocks, that have positive cash flows and are not in indexes. Buying some in emerging markets might be a good strategy, like some Greeks stocks which have been right at the bottom for years. Personally I wouldn't put much in here, but if I did buy stocks then emerging markets with low debt or really low P/E ratios is what I'd buy. d) In case you don't wanna buy any stocks, it would ok to get some exposure by buying some call options on certain the S&P500 in case it goes a lot higher over the next couple of years. e) In case you are scared or not feeling like doing c or d because of the risks, it would be also prudent to short some bank stocks. Regardless of whether you long stocks or buy call options, bank stocks in Europe look pretty awful and on the current environment have pretty much 0 upside and plenty of downside. Low leveraged shorts would be a nice hedge against all uncertainty. f) Buying and staking some new cryptocurrencies like Tezos, Algorand, Cosmos. Large, new cryptocurrencies that offer rewards for holding and staking are very attractive as traditional investors will prefer them for multiple reasons. Mainly due to liquidity, accessibility and due to the fact that most want to buy something that has a yield. g) Other established cryptocurrencies that are either new, are connected with real businesses, exchange tokens, privacy and so on. For example I like DOGE, BFT, QASH, GT, LEO, HT, KCS, MCO, DGD, NPXS, DCR, WAXP, FSN, NKN, GRS, BTT, DUSK, ANKR, WTX, REP, MANA, LOOM, NEXO, FTM, TUBE, XMR, RIF, DERO, BCD, SC, KMD, DASH, WAVES. I don't think the right time to invest in them is now, but they will quite attractive to put some BTC in them BTC goes above 20k h) A 1:1 leveraged Bitcoin long. Allocate some capital and long Bitcoin with low leverage. It will be very hard for you to get liquidated. Bitcoin is in a bull market and as long you buy a dip, it will be very hard for you to get stopped out. So essentially the first category is so that you can both increase your purchasing power slowly, as well as protect yourself in case things turn bad. The second is there so that you can take a bit of extra risk and risk max 20% of your capital.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by BitcoinMacro
Bitcoin Trade Signals Review - 1H Since 2018 Jan To 20190730ukBITMEX:XBTUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT Timeframes on Ribbons: 1H -> 45H Indicator: 9 Seasons Rainbow Multi TimeFrames Pattern This Tutorial Idea Indicates some important trading signals of Bitcoin given by the indicator since 2018 January, in order to help users of the indicator learn how to identify opportunities. Some Typical Trigger Signals: Long: Yellow -> Lime: Breakout Blue -> Green: Reverse Purple -> Blue: Fading Breakout downward Short: Blue -> Purple: Breakout downward Yellow -> Red: Reverse Lime -> Yellow: Fading Breakout Signals Pattern Trigger in Short Term: Ribbon 1 - Ribbon 3/4 Context: Ribbon 3/4 - Ribbon 12, which is the most outstanding ribbons with priority: Yellow-Blue, Lime-Purple, Red - Green, else. I appreciate your like or comment. Welcome to share your idea here. PM the author for a one-week free trial of "9 Seasons Rainbow Multi TimeFrames Pattern". DISCLAIMER This idea is only a personal opinion and does NOT serve as investing advice NOR as trading advice. This idea, "9 Seasons Rainbow Multi TimeFrames Pattern" indicators, and all related contents are for the purpose of trading strategies studying or paper trading. If a user or a customer uses any of these related contents for live trading or investment, she/he should take all risks.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by go8686
Bitcoin Trade Signals Review - 1H Since 2018 January To 20190730BITMEX:XBTUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT Timeframes on Ribbons: 1H -> 45H Indicator: 9 Seasons Rainbow Multi TimeFrames Pattern This Tutorial Idea Indicates some important trading signals of Bitcoin given by the indicator since 2018 January, in order to help users of the indicator learn how to identify opportunities. Some Typical Trigger Signals: Long: Yellow -> Lime: Breakout Blue -> Green: Reverse Purple -> Blue: Fading Breakout downward Short: Blue -> Purple: Breakout downward Yellow -> Red: Reverse Lime -> Yellow: Fading Breakout Signals Pattern Trigger in Short Term: Ribbon 1 - Ribbon 3/4 Context: Ribbon 3/4 - Ribbon 12, which is the most outstanding ribbons with priority: Yellow-Blue, Lime-Purple, Red - Green, else. I appreciate your like or comment. Welcome to share your idea here. PM the author for a one-week free trial of "9 Seasons Rainbow Multi TimeFrames Pattern". DISCLAIMER This idea is only a personal opinion and does NOT serve as investing advice NOR as trading advice. This idea, "9 Seasons Rainbow Multi TimeFrames Pattern" indicators, and all related contents are for the purpose of trading strategies studying or paper trading. If a user or a customer uses any of these related contents for live trading or investment, she/he should take all risks.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by go8686
7
Is Bitcoin Going For The Coffee?Hello dear crypto friends, grandpa BTC perfectly broke out yesterday as we had been analysing over the last couple of trades. Since I'm personally in a position, I wanna explain to you how you would've had to play this setup. Have fun watching! ;) If you had some value from my analysis, give it a thumbs-up & comment it, because the mechanism shows my analysis to other people then. Make also sure to follow me so you get notified on my Crypto Analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) Edgy is providing online mentorship & trading metrics only. We are not a financial advisor, nor do we hold any formal qualifications in this area. You're trading at your own risk. No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. Please be aware, that you can lose all your money on the online exchanges.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Edgy_
5
Bitcoins consolidation phase, in it or still towards itPast days i have been showing in my channel that we are very likely at an important stage. It's either a continuation of the rally (which i think is too soon, but would fit the parabolic movement and madness of the past 2 months, i mean, it's Bitcoin :) ). A better, healthier scenario would be to make a much bigger consolidation coming period before we move up again. As always, can go both ways, but let me explain my thoughts a bit. Me personally, even if we see 16K next week, to me the chances will remain very big that we can dump just as fast again. Explained this several times past months, even during the 3K prices. When a market moves up extremely fast without a good retest and consolidation, it will always remain very nervous/fragile because there is no real backup (the consolidation before the rally continues) to find support again. Maybe think of it as the 6K zone in 2018. How many times did the price dump to that level and bounced up again. That's what called a real support zone, because everyone can see it and not many people will panic sell when it reaches that level. That the 6K eventually broke is a different story. Simply said, after many retests for 10 months, the market just didn't have enough confidence to go higher. I explained this during the rally to 13.900 as well. We moved up extremely fast since the 7500/8000 and people (retail and pro money) tend to increase the positions when an asset is very bullish and the positions is already at a very comfortable profit and a wide distance from the Break Even point. So when the positions pile up (so getting a higher average price because of increasing at higher prices), what happens when the price makes a big correction? We see a lot more profit taking than usual. So it seems as if the market is super strong, but to me it's not. With that i mean long term. With this i mean, would i prefer to see a parabolic move just to see it dump again? Or would i prefer to see a 3/6 month consolidation above the 8k or maybe even 9k. If we get a level coming period that, with time gives the impression it's impenetrable (like the 6K in 2018), how much more comfortable would traders and investors be to get in at that support. Even new money would be much more likely to get if we get a huge support zone. Think everyone has seen (and prob felt) the 4k drop from the high 2 weeks ago. So in general for me personally, the faster we move up, the more cautious i will be. We should never forget, even though fundamentals have changed a lot past year, this is still a speculation market. Speculating that Bitcoin/crypto might become the real deal. If it were facts, price would have been much higher already. Maybe compare it a bit with Gold, also a speculative market. There is a fundamental part to it as well, just like Bitcoin, but also a lot of speculating. The more experienced traders might remember the Gold Rush of 2005/6. Where so many people were already talking about 5K prices for Gold. I actually talked about this a lot in during the ATH of Bitcoin. Where i compared the Gold rush to Crypto. Back then, we had Gold (Bitcoin) and Silver (maybe ETH) that were extremely hyped and popular. Gold and Silver would replace fiat money, many people were just as convinced as we see now with crypto. What did we have back then as well? The gold and silver mines, you can compare them to the alt coins. There were countless silver/gold mine stocks that made similar gains as alts coins. Moving up from 0.05 cent to a few dollars. Back then i was telling people who asked me for my opinion, almost the same thing as the past year or 2. Most had market caps of 20 to 200 mil and therefore extremely easy manipulated. In my home town there was 1 particular silver mine stock that most talked about. I kept telling them, it's all of you who is pushing up the price. You need to understand, daily volume was like 100k to 1 mil on a good day. So if someone wanted to buy worth 50k, he would prob double the price himself because of it. Something we have seen a lot in crypto with the Pump & Dump schemes. Nowadays, social media is much bigger than 10/12 years ago. I did not see a lot of online talk as we are seeing with crypto nowadays, maybe not even 1% then of what we have now. Without sounding to negative, my general advice was to them was: At least know what your buying and not what OTHERS are telling. In general never trust anyone who tells you to do something when they have (a significant) stake in it themselves as well. Kept saying this countless times during the ATH of Bitcoin as well and i will keep saying it. Of course people who have millions in Bitcoin will tell you that it's the real shit. Of course a crypto fund manager will tell you Bitcoin will go to the moon. Do they even have another choice? Selffulfilling prophecy is a very strong tool!! When enough people believe something will happen, without knowing it, they will buy the price up themselves to make it happen. But this is all short term, because if something isn't for real (settled fundamentals), within a few months to a few years it will eventually come down again. To the chart now, trying to show what i mean with a bigger consolidation, not in price but in time. The 2015/16 rally also shows that real consolidations take much more time, same as the Gold chart above. Now even i can accept that Bitcoin moves much faster than traditional assets, but when look at other moments we can still see that the current consolidation of 2 weeks ia very small. However, what i can't say or know, is this just another small correction before making one more move up for the bigger consolidation. Meaning, are we in the blue or yellow circle of 2016. That i can't know and i don't even dare to make prediction on that. You can say that this post is not to make a prediction of what we will do coming period, but it's to give an impression of what is realistic and to show that we almost always get a second or even third chance to get in again. 2 months ago when we first reached the 8K, i could smell the FOMO in everywhere, even in my own chat. So i wrote a big message trying to calm everyone down with the general message: If you were not in already at low prices, go sit on your hands and just watch and be patient. Very likely to see the price come back down again eventually to the current price. At least then you are able to judge if your buying a support instead of buying the high. Since that moment we we crossed the 8K several times, even reaching 6500/7000 after. At the 12k similar thing, posted a similar message. If your not in already, don't buy the high and be patient. We even reached 9700. Now don't think it's easy for me to say this, because when i am wrong and we simply continue to go up, than i am the big idiot preventing them to make profit. But think about and be honest, how many times did a real FOMO buy make you profit (not paper profit but that you really sold for a profit) and how many times did you buy close to the high. Is that 50/50 or is more close to 80% failure. And the moments it did continu to go up, did you take profit at some point or were you still holding after a big dump below your entry? So is does FOMO strategy have a 20% success rate or is it actually more like 5% (because of the non profit taking). I have no idea of course, but my guess is, that the ones who did FOMO or were having a hard time not to FOMO at 13k, maybe max 5% of them bought at 9700/10500. Human nature and when being inexperienced in this game, to feel bullish on the way up and bearish on the way down. Maybe it's time we stop making it so easy for the whales and filling the order book with buys at the highs and sells at the lows? Think long term, like the big boys are doing and plan ahead to prevent emotional decisions. Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :) Previous posts:
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by botje11
10
Theory on Nov crash and 2019 PumpGoing to write about a theory i have on what might have been going on the past 9 months. I have talked about similar things a few times in educational posts, saying that financial markets are NOT here for us, they are here for the brokers and banks to get commission fees and intrest (funding) from leveraged traders. Just like: Casino's: house always wins on the long term. Sports betting: House always wins because most don't have the patience to wait for the good games and gamble preferably 24/7 (just like trading). (online) Poker rooms, taking a percentage (rake) from each played pot (just like brokers/exchanges, guaranteed and no risk). Sometimes doing giveaways and special things to keep the intrest of the players/gamblers/traders alive ;) So those are not around for the gamblers/players/traders to make money. They also don't want them too loose everything, they want them to always be able to play and as long as possible to keep everything alive. Think most people have gambled at least a few times in their life and we all know the saying, beginners luck. It's as if a casino has a special radar to spot a first timer and letting them win the first time. Why? Because once you taste an easy win, you can never go back. Wise people eventually know when to quit gambling before things get out of hand. Others can never let go of that winning feeling and always hope (maybe even pray) that it will come back again (FOMO). Now back to my theory. Think it's safe to say that crypto exchanges had an amazing year in during and since the ATH. With huge volumes all over where they were making big bucks on a daily basis. Since the failed rallies at 8500 and 7400 we can see that volume dropped a lot. The volume candles don't give the correct picture, so i wrote the volumes i remember seeing on average during those periods. Now i can write my thoughts about what might have happened, but it's a bit too much conspiracy theory ish :). So i rather let you think about it yourself and your more than welcome to share what you think might have been going on. Of course eventually i will post my theory on this part as well later on. Only part i will say upfront, during the 3K zone, almost everyone thought Bitcoin was dead and many even started to feel as if, maybe, just maybe it was just one big hoax all along. What is general sentiment now? Oh and before i forget, the Bitfinex/Tether (this one is maybe a bit far fetched) and the Binance hack that happened back at the 5k. Mentioned it back then as well, because we never saw any follow through on that news. Felt like it was being used to eventually short squeeze people who shorted on that news. Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :) The previous post i mentioned:
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by botje11
57
BITCOIN, Analysis According to Wyckoff Method, Must Read!The purpose of technical analysis using the Wyckoff method is to improve the timing of market operations when a speculative position is formed in anticipation of an upcoming move, where there is a favorable profit/risk ratio to justify opening this position. Trading Ranges ( TRs ) are the points where previous movement will be stopped and there will be a balance between supply and demand. Here , within the Trading Range , accumulation or distribution develops and prepares for the further movement. These accumulation/distribution forces "create a cause" that transforms into subsequent movement. Creating the necessary strenght takes time and, since during this period price action is understandable, Trading Ranges represent really nice trading opportunities with potentially very favourable risk/reward ratio. However, to become a successful trader, you must be able to determine correctly the direction and size of the upcoming movement from the Trading Range. Fortunately, Wyckoff method offers us some useful guidelines and models which will help us to explore the Trading Range. In our case we observe the Wyckoff ICE scheme - to fall under the ice. The fall is a relatively wide-spread price movement, at quite high volume, which breaks through external resistance or support. The return is a test that immediately follows the jump, it is characterized by a relatevely narrow spread or rally on a lower volume, which checks and confirms the validity of the previous action of a jump. The Wyckoff method tells us to buy on a return after an upward jump (sign of strength), or to open shorts on a downward jump (sign of weakness) . Also according to the Wyckoff method, you shouldn't buy exactly during the breakout, because that can put you in an vulnerable position for quick movements in the opposite direction if the breakout is false one. Thus, the Wyckoff method offers us to buy on the correction of the downward movement and sell on the correction of upward.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by BillCharison
79
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Insiders Exit Crypto as Shown by USDT SupplyThe chart shows the Bitcoin price and the Tether (USDT) supply, i.e. the number of USDT coins in existence, in blue. As you can see the supply of Tether was increased by 20% in mid-August 2018. This was to provide liquidity to allow insiders to swap their BTC for USDT for the final exit at 6k. One months later, just days before the massive BTCUSD price spike and Tether price drop on 15 October 2018, they started quietly swapping their USDT for real money ($$$) via the Bank of Tether thus cashing out of crypto. During this period the supply of Tether dropped -40%. That was approximately $1.2 billion dollars. All the time the price of Bitcoin was maintained stable at about $6400 on average. This was so that insiders (scammers, criminals and assorted scumbags) could continue to sell their Bitcoin for Tether at a good price. The only instability was an intraday spike to almost $8000. This allowed insiders to load up shorts, but otherwise the price of Bitcoin was stable until the insiders were finished cashing out of crypto in mid-November (bottom of red arrow). THEN and ONLY THEN did the Bitcoin price drop, IMMEDIATELY. WHAT A MIRACULOUS COINCIDENCE. Interesting is that the Network hash rate (yellow) peaks when the the Tether supply (blue) peaks way before in August, i.e. before the price (candles) crashes. The so called hash war with BSV (red) vs BCH and Wright vs Ver was really not relevant imo, in other words just a cover story for dumping. (BTC hash rate in yellow)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by RealMcafee
4
4 Beginner Bitmex Mistakes That Can Ruin Your Whole Portfolio! 4 Beginner Bitmex Mistakes That Are Ruining Your Chances of Profits And What You Should Do Instead 1. Over Leveraged Trades No matter how great of a trader you are or how much experience you have in technical analysis, over leveraging is a sure fire way of racking up loss after loss in BitMEX or any margin exchanges. Bitmex allows you to borrow 100x against your deposited bitcoin. At 100x, a small 0.5% move in price will get you liquidated. That’s right, just half a percent in price movement of the underlying asset at 100x is all you get for safety. Example : If you 100x Long XBT at $5220, your liquidation point would be $5246. That’s only $26 worth of room. The lower the leverage the more room you get per trade. Guide to Success: Keep leverage low, 10x maximum but try to use up to 5x mostly. This ensures you have more room and time to become profitable and take profits. 2. Over Position Size Everyone has done it at one point. You know the price is going to move a certain way and you want to capitalize as much as you can on the opportunity, you type in a big number and hit the long or short button. Bam! Price moves the opposite direction and you get this email: " Your Bitmex Position Has Been Liquidated " Ouch. Guide to Success: Use only a set percent of your total portfolio per trade. Use an amount that you wouldn’t be too worried about losing but would also get a nice return if the trade gets profitable. This ensures all losses are manageable. It’s very critical to not to importantize one specific trade idea. 3. Lack of Patience You haven’t traded in awhile and are itching for a position, you see no good opportunities so you look at the 15 minute chart. You enter a trade that looks great for short term profits. What luck! Your position is in profits, now it's time to exit quick before the market turns the other way. You hit the “Market” button. Uh oh! You just lost more money than you should have made. What happened here? Simple, the BitMEX trading fees are very high if you use market orders. If everyone could make easy money on BitMEX, the platform would not exist. BitMEX makes money from trading fees. When you execute market trades, you pay a hefty 0.075% fee on the total size of the position you are trying to exit. At higher leverage, you pay higher fees. This isn’t the only fee you should expect to pay BitMEX. Guide To Success : Never use just the shorter time frame charts to trade, always look to the further out time frames to see if they all align. Use limit orders to enter/exit a trade and prevent BitMEX from taking a huge chunk of your profits 4. Emotional Trading You finally did it. You made a bunch of money on BitMEX in one trade. You’re euphoric and ecstatic about all your winnings. Knowing you’re on a win streak you go into the market once more with a bigger position. What happens next? Splat! You are liquidated, your winning streak has ended in a bad loss. Why did this happen? One word, emotions. You believed your winning streak would last and let euphoria control your trades. The opposite can happen during a losing streak, in that case it can lead to revenge trading with high capital allocation and high leverage. Win streaks don’t last and losing streaks can last forever. Guide to Success: Always think and be analytical. Do not let winning (greed) or losing affect how you execute your next trade. Conclusion: Trading on BitMEX is not easy. If it was everyone would be Bitcoin millionaires. By recognizing mistakes common traders make, you can prevent yourself from making the same silly mistakes and increase your chances of making consistent profits. Feel free to support this post written by me, Shaggad, with a like! Thanks for reading! -Shaggad
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by shaggad
When Trends of Different Time Frames ConflictTrading is complected, because Price is superimposed wave of price activities on different time frames. When trends on short, medium and long term time frames move in the same direction, price trend is clear, as a whole. On the other hand, when trends on different time frames against each other, range happens and price trend is hard to predict. This happened within the past two days on BTCUSD. On short term to medium term time frames (15 minute -> 2H), there were multiple Oversold/Support (Blue) signals, which indicated strong support. On long term time frames (169 minute, 4H), there were Bear (Red) signals. On 339 minute, there was Overbought/Resistance (Yellow) signal. On 4H, 678 minute, there were Bull Pullback (Light Green) signal. Blue and light green is for Bull, while Red and Yellow is for Bear. The against-each-other pattern reflects the range situation of the market. Bull and Bear both believe their side will win. Nobody has 100% certainty to say which side will win. So a good policy to handle this situation is staying away from trading until the range is broken. A useful signal given by "9 Seasons Rainbow Multiple Time Frames Pattern" is Oversold / Support (Blue) -> Crazy Sold (Fuchsia), which indicates an attempt of break down is going. If it reverses, Fuchsia turns back to Blue, it indicates a failed breakdown. Yesterday, there were two attempts to breakdown the support, the first one failed, while the second did breakdown. Sometimes people make judgement by combining all the information they get, including their experience, signals from the indicator, ideas from other traders, news, or even their emotions. In my latest idea "BITCOIN GOT VALID SUPPORT, BULL MAY TEST 4050 RESISTANCE SOON", I assumed the failed breakdown will lead to retesting 4050 resistance, which has been proven to be the opposite of the real price move. It is a lesson for me: it is important to focus on objective facts and ignore all kinds of noise.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by go8686
Why would anyone good buy PonziCoin?Plenty of self proclaimed experts, or even "legends" calling to invest ("invest") in Bit-con. Let me tell you I would not buy Bitcoin, even if I had a cristal ball. If we assume Bitcoin is really going "to the moon" and keep being as exponentially bullish as the past, the best possible scenario would bring its marketcap to 2 trillion in 4 years (that is ALOT of money going into CrimeCoin). Ok if I had a cristal ball telling me this would happen I would put some money in to be safe & pray my action does not change future events. All these self proclaimed pro's and bosses are so full of it. In my little calculation I took a winrate of 2/3, meaning your Win/Lose is 2. That is pretty ambitious but I am comparing this to a super optimistic Bitcon route. Plus on FX sites & copytrade sites you have plenty of guy that manage 1.5+ over thousands of trades (so RR1 & winrate 60% OR RR2 & winrate 43%). If clowns selling signals and random people on FX sharing sites manage 1.5 and more, 2 is not that crazy to imagine. The result with 1.5 is not as big as 2 but still big and comparable or better than Bitcoin 3000% (buying very bottom selling very top), with still a 0 risk of ruin. And no frozen capital. etc... The risk of ruin misses one thing thought: massive slippage. Well if you risk 2% with a 1 ATR SL, you'll never blow up. NatGas recently had a short squeeze, it went up 3 ATR in 1 hour and killed optionsellers.com. EURCHF in 2015 had a slippage of 15-20 ATR in 1 hour. With 2% risk to lose all you'd need a slippage of 50 ATR! That doesn't even happen on penny stocks. And retail traders are protected so you can't lose more than what you have with a broker. Buying Bitcoin with all your money thought? Hah good luck with that one. So much can go wrong. Let me show you how the risk of ruin is calculated. (1-Edge)/(1+Edge)^U With 66% winrate RR 1 the edge is 0.33 because 0.66666-0.3333 = 0.33333 With the 1.5's the edge is 60% winrate RR1 ==> 0.6-0.4 = 0.2 OR 40% WR RR2 ==> (0.40*2 - 0.6*1) = 0.8-0.6 = 0.2 I just found a 44% WR RR2 on a site visible to everyone, that edge is 0.88-0.56 = 0.32 so don't tell me it's not possible. I don't think I am allowed to post links but it's really easy to find. FX sites with systems and verified trading history and stats... U = the maximum number of risks that can be taken before the individual reaches their threshold for ruin Ok here is one. Only 300 trades thought. Trades: 331 Average Win: 214.39 pips / $68.85 Average Loss: -107.72 pips / -$38.58 Commissions: -$279.02 Longs Won: (65/167) 38% Shorts Won: (83/164) 50% Best Trade($): (Aug 10) 300.56 Worst Trade($): (Feb 14) -115.80 Avg. Trade Length: 1d So, the risk of ruin (considering you're done at 50 losses > wins correct me if I am wrong) with such an example that has an edge of 0.333: (1-0.3333)/(1+0.3333)^50 = very very small number. Sites with calculators just give 0. So why would anyone good at the game waste their time and money with this ponzi? "Oh but the big funds never make huge % gains 3000 is massive" Ok smartass they're not allowed to have drawdowns of 10% so obviously they won't be all in Bitcoin. If you're comparing all in PonziCoin to make 3000% then I think an example where one risks 2% per trade and has a RoR of 0.000000000000000000000000000000000 is actually very biased towards Bitcoin. To have a fair comparison we would have to get a risk of ruin higher and risk much more per trade. The positive outcome would be so much greater than 20,000%. When you actually run the numbers, all these clowns that act like they know something are so full of it. If they're so good and are risking everything on PonziCoin, then why not use their superior legendary mastery of markets to risk everything scalping/daytrading/swinging it and make MASSIVE returns? Risk would be the same but returns immensly greaters. Even if they go 20% in ponzicoin, that 20% capital would be better used trading with their master skillZ. Why don't they do this? Because they're trash and full of it. That's why. Yet hundreds of thousands of sheep follow them and cheer (as well as clowns chasing 50 to 1 risk rewards), why? Because they are brainlets that cannot add 2 numbers. "Investing" in Bitcoin is the stupidest thing anyone could do, regardless of it going up or not. Aren't these wannabee hedge funds down 80% too? Gee that's really good. Typical funds that return consistently 15% a year while having a drawdown limit of 5%, what would they return with a limit at 80%? Funds have tried in the past to hold and wait for recessions to buy like Warren Buffet, but their clients won't let them. What if these guys had cryptards as clients? No limits! Wait 5 years for the crash, then buy with leverage risk it all. Who is the best trader/manager, the guy returning 15% a year but with 5 possible drawdown, or the guy returning 25% but potential drawdown is 15%? Or the guy returning 300% but potential drawdown is 90% (lol...) People are just so awful at maths.... Clowns. No wonder wall street is afraid mathematicians and algo's are dominating the business, how good kids are at maths at school has severly deteriorated the past decades, and now people that have the ability to add 2 numbers are playing against mathematically illiterate brainlets. Also, stock market has also gone up 10000% if you used the right leverage/borrowed money... And don't the FXscamLFidiotsTOsellAcourseTO totally legit traders selling courses all claim they made 5000% returns a year or more? "23 yo 1.5 millionaire that started 2 years ago with 8 grans" that is a 18750% return in 2 years. If you compare 2 things then you should consider an equal risk... So obvious... "I can make way more jumping off a plane with no parachute that working as a bouncer for a bar" Uh then compare jumping off a plane to working as a bouncer for a crimelord then... My brain hurts hearing or reading these cryptoers... Anyone (looking to actively trade) serious about this. Just... write it down and calculate it all. Otherwise just go to the casino at least they have flashy neons and drinks.
BNC:BLXEducation
by MrRenev
5
My Bitcoin (XBT) LONG Hits Perfect +97% ROE (More To Come)Patience is key is the phrase that I've adopted for my trading state of mind. I shared a high leverage, high risk, high profits LONG trade for Bitcoin (XBT) on the 28 Feb., needless to say, I received much love from the community mixed with some doubt, I just want to take the time out to remind us that trading is a patience game and it takes time for our trades to develop, but we now have literally dozens and dozens of trades generating massive profits. Our Bitcoin (XBT) LONG is no exception. We hit our first target for up 97%+ ROE with more to come. You can find this trade here: If you want to see more profitable, high-risk, highly advanced, high rewards trades make sure to hit like. If enough people hit like, I will start sharing more and more. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by AlanSantana
Using Long Term Trend Lines in CryptoI wrote this one 8 Dec 2018, but because i wanted to add more things i kept it on hold in a hidden post. I just did not have the time to complete it, so i will post it as it is now and based on question/comments, i might make a part 2 on this post. Every week i keep seeing this long term LOG chart and i simply just can't stand it anymore. I know most people think TA is about drawing some lines and we can simply trade based on those facts. In many cases that is very true, no doubt, it is just not that simple. I have mentioned many times that i simply do not look back at the period before 2017. I am 100% convinced without a second of doubt, that this long term chart of Bitcoin' is as useless as they come. There is one very simple reason for my assumption, the market dynamic (the buyers and sellers) are completely different back than. - The percentage of professional traders is so much more now than back in those days. - HODLing days are over, who still has the confidence to keep 100% of their portfolio in crypto. - Maybe the most important fact of all, it used to be buy and sell only, nowadays shorting has become a defining factor in this crypto world, do not underestimate this for a second. - Leveraged trading, is much more in 2018 than it was in the past. Of course there are levels where certain early investors, who were smart enough to sell (at least part of their portfolio) during the highs, who might think; "what the heck, lets try a little bit again around 1.000/2.000/3.000 or whatever price they think might be worth the shot. Because they remember certain support levels were important to them back in those days. Current support levels are mostly created because buyers step in, but just as much levels where bears take profit on their shorts (which are also buy orders). Since we usually see shorts squeezes at certain levels, it is maybe even safe to say that the bears determine the support levels nowadays. Just look at how many people kept adjusting trend lines the past months and referring to past support levels around in the 5K and 4K levels. But i think we have all seen what value these levels had the past month, absolutely nothing. They all cracked like it was nothing. Now i am not saying i knew it would go like this, i never expected it to get dumped so much so fast. But it was quite obvious that a break of the 6K would be very bad for the market since it was a huge support for 8 months. Throughout 2018, how many times did we have breakouts on those descending trend lines from the 20K level (yellow circles). The only solid useful line i can see here, is the blue one. For the rest, what is the value of them? You need to look at them upfront, not in hindsight. Crypto is a very young market which still has to mature. So it will take many more years to achieve that level. Only THEN can you think of giving real value to these long term trend lines . The best example is the break of a few weeks ago. Not matter if you were a bull or a bear, but the 6K support zone held as support for more than 8 months. Would you really try to buy long term based on that trend line? Or was it quite clear the bears had won the big fight and we would start to see a crash. Now my message is not that it is pointless, there are enough (mature) assets where it does work, i just want to give the message, do not stare blindly at these long term trend lines . Maybe use them as an extra tool to confirm your analysis, but nothing more than that. I talk with several professional traders on a regularly basis, there is not even 1 of them that even mentions these trend lines . To put it in more simple words, when looking at a chart (no matter which time frame) it's like one big story. And like each story it is divided in chapters. What i am trying to say is, do not mix up the different chapters. For example, the 6K triangle is a chapter, or the current possible triangle as a chapter as well. Many of you follow several analysts here, we all make good, decent and bad analysis, but i don't think i need to remind you what catastrophically bad predictions have been made based on these trend line . I don't want to step on any toes, but i just had to get it of my chest, because it's not fair towards the less experienced traders :) Previous educational post: Another educational post, worth the read, makes you understand my message here better; Don't forget to give a like if you appreciate this :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by botje11
92
BTCUSD D3/W1 charts (3/14/2019)The D3 chart looks a lot more promising than the smaller TFs at this time. A pennant/symmetrical triangle is currently printing and a bullish break should have price targeting the $4150/60 level as well as place price just under the neckline of the possible purple IHS that some people are watching. RSI continues printing an ascending channel but traders should watch for a possible bearish drop through channel support. The W1 chart shows the multi-year ascending channel I spoke about in the smaller TF update I posted.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/14/2019)Good morning, traders. The consolidation for Bitcoin continues along an S/R line (H4 dotted red horizontal line) that's been prevalent since December. I have continued to readjust the H4 RSI descending channel to more correctly fit the price movement. At this point, we see RSI nearing a potential break of the channel's resistance as well as having just recently broken the short-term triangle's resistance. However, price remains just under the 21 EMA after having bounced off the bottom of the ascending channel this morning. This has price at the apex of a triangle created by the descending broadening wedge's resistance and ascending channel's support. The daily chart shows a possible ascending wedge printing in red. Based on the height of the wedge, that would signal a target of around $3590 which also is at an S/R level as noted by the blue horizontal line and another HVN. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. If this were to play out, it would be a strong liquidity grab to fuel that price appreciation. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. The weekly 200 MA is sitting at $3408 right now, so it is possible to see price fall toward that level as that is also the ascending support of the monthly symmetrical triangle. Furthermore, as I have continued to mention, price is not out of the woods yet so we cannot rule out a flash drop to $2400 either. Interestingly, for channel traders, that would confirm a large ascending channel from the 2013 high to the 2015 low to the 2017 high. This kind of drop would need to just appear as a wick on the weekly chart with a close back above the 200 MA, otherwise we could be in for a much longer correction. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD D3/M1 charts (3/13/2019)The D3 chart shows a possible IHS forming for those who subscribe to the idea of an IHS bullish continuation pattern. The shorter term target, as we can see, targets the neckline. A successful completion of the pattern suggests a target of the R3 pivot at least, based on the height of the IHS. The monthly chart shows that a possible symmetrical triangle is printing. A bullish push through that triangle's resistance should create a target of around $5200/$5300, based on the height of the triangle, taking price right into the orange supply and the monthly 21 EMA. A breakdown of the triangle would have price targeting the bottom of the large corrective descending wedge at around $2400.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/12/2019)Good morning, traders. It looks like we had just a tad bit of a drop overnight which price has been rectifying this morning after having dipped below the H4 pivot. Price is now above the 21 EMA on that TF and RSI has continued to print a descending channel. H$ MACD is curled up and looking for a bullish cross. The small descending wedge that printed gives price a target of $3900, bringing it back to the top of the local TR/EQ of the ascending channel. I have readjusted the ascending channel to fit the recent movement. We can also see a HVN in that same area, but once through that then price should be targeting the top of the ascending channel and R1 pivot. It should be a relatively easy move to the R2 pivot/EQ of the overhead supply/EQ of the ascending purple channel once price moves through $4048. However, it is there that we can't be sure what will happen. It seems most likely that price should retrace back down toward $3900 from that point and then push through the descending ATH resistance. However, we can't ignore the possibility that price just takes off all of the sudden without the retracement. There is enough room on the daily RSI for this latter possibility to occur. As far as the purple ascending channel goes, it is preliminary and may not hold, but it aligns pretty well with price movement which is why I'm watching it. The daily candle is currently printing a possible hammer reversal, but traders are cautioned about acting solely on it until the daily close and confirmation. D3 chart continues to look like a pause before continued upward movement. Weekly is not an easy read due to the larger upper wick a few weeks back but it isn't looking awful at this time which is a positive since the lower TFs are looking more bullish for now. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin attempted to push above $3950 this weekend but could not make it happen. As I have been mentioning, there is strong resistance up toward $4000 and overcoming it won't be a walk in the park. Last night's downward move bounced off the daily 21 EMA, finding support on the HVN. An H1 gap was created around $3888 and RSI just bounced off oversold. H4 price is printing higher lows between March 8th and today while RSI is printing lower lows. This all suggests some temporary bottoming and a move up toward $3900 at the least. If we take a look at the H4 channels we can see price attempting to push through the horizontal TR's resistance. Price moved up with four touches on the ascending channel's support. Since the Friday high, it has moved within the descending channel inside it, with some sideways actions happening between the resistance levels of the two horizontal channels. If we see price close above $3900 then we should see it target the ascending channel's resistance. With the H4 RSI touching its descending channel support, and price finding support on the HVN/D1 21 EMA as well as bouncing off the D3 support level, it makes more sense for price to move up from here rather than down. We can also see a bullish hammer printing on the H4 TF signifying a likely reversal. Traders should be cautious around the Friday $3950.25 swing high as price needs to close above it before it can target the mid-$4100s/H4 R2 pivot and nearby swing high of $4190. March 10th saw the daily MACD rejected at the bullish cross. The ascending channel on the D1 chart shows price's possible path toward a double top at the ATH descending resistance. The truth is, there are many paths, down and up, that price can take at this time and many retail traders will lose a lot of money attempting to trade the noise in this area. Lack of patience permeates the retail trading sphere spurred on by emotional get-rich-quick overnight millionaire thoughts. Traders that insist on day trading this level should be much more intent on locking in profits earlier and completing shorter term trades. Those looking to buy in for a longer term run toward $5000 or more are best served by closing the chart once they buy and not looking at it again for a few weeks at least. Finally, as some of you may be aware by now, Binance has scheduled maintenance planned for tomorrow. I have seen "analysis" suggesting that since price dropped through the $6000 level soon after the November 12th Binance maintenance, that price will drop this time as well. While it's always possible, the glaring difference that immediately occurs to me is that price was sitting on support at that time while it is now sitting at resistance. If the same manipulation storyline is followed, then logically it would suggest a push through resistance not a drop in price. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/8/2019)Good morning, traders. Price continues to press upward in spite of the overhead supply. Because this is happening within sideways movement there isn't much to say today other than the weekend is upon us and we usually see a strong move during that time, so traders should be keeping that in mind regardless of the direction of their trade. The H1 chart shows an Adam and Eve double bottom pattern that forms the local TR. Price is printing a slightly ascending channel as it consolidates toward the $3900/$3940 resistance level. RSI continues to print a descending broadening wedge and MACD completed a bullish crossover earlier this morning and is pulling away from the signal line. The targets remain the same with the expectation of a move up to $4134, at least, based on the height of the double bottom pattern and local TR. Traders should be keeping an eye on volume and price action as price pushes through $3950 and $4000 to get a better idea of how price will react as it nears the target. As mentioned previously, the target has the potential to print a cup, followed by a handle, which would then have price targeting $4700+. D1 chart shows two previous days of doji candles printing slightly higher followed by today's candle which is much more significantly bullish at this time. However, there is still more than 1/3 of the day left in the candle and we need to see the expected follow through. MACD is about to cross bullishly. Be sure to refer to my previous analysis for other possible targets. Yesterday's D3 candle completed strongly bullish and engulfing the previous D3 candle while closing above the 21 EMA and pivot. The weekly candle is looking good at this time as well. Price continues to hold above the 50% level of the December move up, which is bullish. As we discussed a month ago, weekly price is finding itself consolidating between the 200 MA on the bottom and 200 EMA on the top. A close above $4100 would put price above that 200 EMA resistance level. A close below $3885, however, would put price below the 200 MA support level. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks