Inflation-Adjusted Price IndicatorThis indicator allows traders to adjust historical prices for inflation using customizable CPI data. The script computes the adjusted price by selecting a reference date, the original price, and the CPI source (US CPI or custom input) and plots it as a line on the chart. Additionally, a table summarizes the adjusted price values and average and total inflation rates.
While the indicator serves as a standalone tool to understand inflation's impact on prices, it is a supportive element in more advanced trading strategies requiring accurate analysis of inflation-adjusted data.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as well as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
CPI
v01 remindersTrading requires focus, discipline, and sometimes a reminder to stay on track.
Many of us know how to take trades and make money - but sometimes struggle to hold on to the gains. By knowing not only when to trade, but also when NOT to trade, we can begin to build better habits.
I built this indicator for my own needs, but I hope this indicator can help someone save money by reminding them when to step away, size down or stay on track.
Inspired by trading psychologists like Mark Douglas, David Paul and others, I decided to make an indicator that deals with the mental aspect of trading.
Dr. David Paul said that you can be 10-15 trades away from the trader you want to be. All it takes is 10-15 trades of doing only the right thing (erasing bad habits). After that time the resistance to execute the trades properly will improve even more.
Good trading should be boring and repetitive. If the trading is exciting and varied it is likely unprofitable (more akin to impulsive gambling).
Perhaps you know how to trade, yet keep trading impulsively sometimes, getting "the itch" to trade or gambling with your gains? Set some reminders and see if you can build better habits. Over time it could make a difference.
You can enable up to 10 different reminders with each instance of the indicator. You can select days of the week and time of day. The visibility is fully customizable to suit any colour theme you may want. They dont actually alert - its a silent visual reminder, which is less intrusive and stays on screen for as long as you want.
Remind yourself when CPI releases or bond auctions are about to hit.
Don't get caught off guard by FED speakers or FOMC announcements.
Manage your emotions by writing a motivational reminder.
Build better habits and stay disciplined with reminders not to gamble.
Remind yourself to stay away from the markets when there is low liquidity, and trade during your best hours.
Wait for the market to establish balance and let the text show when to either wait or when to start trading.
Some basic inspiration:
"FOMC - No trading!"
"CPI Data - Expect Volatility"
"Markets closed tomorrow - Plan ahead"
"Take it slow, it's a marathon, not a sprint." - Dakota
"Wait for cheap risk" - HOAG
"Don't diddle in the middle!" - Brian Watts
You can of course write anything you want. Maybe you would like to remind yourself of a specific algo in crude oil or gold, or have other motivational reminders that work for you. If you have any good suggestions put them in the comments for others to use.
You can also use the script to watermark or put a web link on your charts. The indicator is empty by default - the image is just an example of the different types of labels it can show.
Customize the reminders for specific days, times, and events. Position them anywhere on your chart to suit your workflow. Whether you're a day trader or a long-term investor, theres always things to improve. This lets you keep those reminders right on your charts. You can go into the object tree settings and drag the indicator to the top if you want it to hide the candlesticks, and size up the text to really make it cover the chart for when to really stay away, as in the "FOMC" example in the image. The sample image shows a couple of different labels - but the script has no texts by default. It is up to you what to write and what colours to use. Please share it with others that may benefit.
You can add the script more than once if you need more than 10 alerts. You can also use it on multiple panels in TradingView, and it will remember the reminders for each panel. You can use spaces when positioning text in the top and bottom left corners of the screen, where there is sometimes a logo or ticker name obscuring the text. If two reminders display in the same location it will default to show the higher number of the two. Use specific times to change the reminders to make sure they dont overlap if they have the same position and put them on multiple charts if needed.
This script is dedicated to Brian Watts, who started something in me when he kept repeating "Don't diddle in the middle!" and "Where is purple?". IYKYK. I would like to thank him for the inspiration to better myself.
As above, so below.
v01
Oster's Fair Economy (OFE)Overview:
Oster's Fair Economy (OFE) is a powerful tool designed to give traders and investors a comprehensive assessment of the fair value of major stock indices . Unlike conventional indicators that focus solely on technical analysis, OFE emphasizes economic metrics to offer a deeper understanding of the market's intrinsic value. By applying Oster's method (explained below), OFE determines the fundamental fair price of key indices, making it an invaluable tool for top-down analysis and market confirmation. It is particularly useful for swing trading on indices and as a top-down confirmation for individual stock trades.
Important Note:
OFE is designed for use with indices, not individual stocks : Stocks are often driven by their own fundamental factors, such as earnings, revenue, and dividend yields, which may not align with broad economic metrics. While OFE can sometimes provide insights into individual stocks, particularly those highly correlated with broader market trends, it is specifically intended for index analysis.
OFE is optimized for Weekly Candles (W ): OFE is most effective when used with weekly data, as it aligns with the longer-term outlook of economic analyses. While it can be used with smaller timeframes, weekly data is recommended for the most accurate insights.
Innovative Approach to Economic Analysis:
OFE integrates a unique combination of key economic metrics , including:
Gross National Product (GNP)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Unemployment Rate (UR)
Interest Rate (e.g., FED)
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
Retail Sales (RS)
Industrial Production (IP)
Balance Of Trade (BOT)
Money Supply M2 (M2)
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
These metrics are tailored for 20 different markets : United States (US), Canada (CA), European Union (EU), Germany (DE), United Kingdom (GB), France (FR), Italy (IT), Switzerland (CH), Spain (ES), Australia (AU), New Zealand (NZ), Japan (JP), China (CN), Hong Kong (HK), South Korea (KR), India (IN), Russia (RU), Brazil (BR), Mexico (MX), and Saudi Arabia (SA).
This comprehensive set of data allows traders to gauge the potential for growth, inflation, and overall market conditions . OFE's weighting system reflects the importance of these metrics in determining the fair value of indices according to Oster's methodology .
How OFE Works:
OFE's calculation methodology is designed to provide insights into whether an index is fundamentally overvalued, undervalued, or trading at fair value by comparing its price dynamics with economic data. Here’s a step-by-step breakdown of how OFE works:
Economic Data Collection : OFE retrieves relevant economic data from the selected region, such as GDP, CPI, and interest rates. If specific market data is unavailable, OFE defaults to the US market as a fallback.
Normalization and Weighting : The collected economic metrics are normalized against historical trends to ensure that the data reflects both current levels and long-term averages. For example, GDP growth rates are normalized based on historical data, allowing for a comparison across different economic periods. Similarly, CPI and unemployment rates are adjusted to account for historical context, ensuring that high inflation or unemployment is appropriately weighed relative to past conditions. However, all other macroeconomic key figures are also processed in the same way.
Relating Economic Metrics to Price Dynamics : OFE calculates specific ratios by comparing the selected index’s price with the normalized economic data. These ratios, such as the GNP ratio, are then analyzed within the context of historical performance. The goal is to establish a relationship between the economic indicators and the index’s historical price behavior. For instance, if the GNP ratio is currently higher than historical norms, it could suggest that the index is overvalued relative to the economy’s actual productivity.
Fair Value Calculation : Based on the derived ratios and their historical correlations with index prices, OFE computes a fair value for the index. This calculation integrates multiple economic indicators, each weighted according to its perceived importance in influencing the index. For example, in a high-growth environment, GDP and industrial production might carry more weight, whereas in a recession, unemployment and interest rates could become more influential. The resulting fair value reflects the index's price adjusted for the current economic environment.
Price Comparison : The calculated fair value is then compared to the current market price of the index. If the market price significantly deviates from the fair value, it suggests that the index is either overvalued or undervalued. For example, if the fair value of the S&P 500 is calculated to be 10% lower than its current market price, OFE would indicate that the index might be overvalued, potentially signaling a market correction. The fair price line basically acts as a kind of magnet that keeps attracting the index price. This is because, in the longer term, the broad market is always guided by the economic health of the country in concerned.
Market Dynamics Consideration : By adjusting the "Strictness" level in OFE, users can control how sensitive the fair value calculation is to economic fundamentals. A higher strictness level would highlight discrepancies between the fair value and the market price more aggressively, suggesting a higher likelihood of market mispricing. Conversely, a lower strictness level allows for greater flexibility, acknowledging that markets can sometimes deviate from fundamental values without immediate correction.
Customizable Parameters for Tailored Analysis:
OFE offers extensive customization options to align with your specific investment strategy. Users can:
Select or deselect economic metrics for inclusion.
Adjust the weighting of each metric to reflect its importance in their analysis.
Fine-tune the strictness of the valuation process (as explained above).
Additionally, users can compare different indices with various macroeconomic data sets . For example, you might select the DAX index and apply US economic data to see how the index would perform if driven by US market fundamentals. This feature enables a highly tailored and region-specific analysis, empowering traders to align OFE with their individual perspectives and market outlooks.
Interpretation:
If the calculated fair price is above the current index value, the index is considered fundamentally undervalued, indicating potential for price increases. Conversely, if the fair price is below the current index value, the index is seen as overvalued, suggesting potential risks or a possible correction. The fair price acts as a gravitational force, pulling the index toward its true economic value over time.
This over- or undervaluation can also serve as an overarching economic confirmation for stock trading . For example, it might be advantageous to buy individual stocks when the broader market is fundamentally undervalued, as the general upward potential of the market could support stock price increases. Conversely, selling or avoiding stocks when the broader market is overvalued could help mitigate potential risks, as the market may be primed for a correction.
Conclusion:
Oster's Fair Economy (OFE) bridges the gap between technical simplicity and the depth of macroeconomic analysis . By integrating complex economic metrics with user-friendly customization, OFE empowers traders and investors to assess the fair valuation of indices confidently . This tool is ideal for confirming market trends and gaining a broader understanding of the economic landscape, making it a valuable asset in any investment toolkit.
[Comparative CPI SGM]Code Explanation
User Inputs:
len: Defines the period over which CPI changes are calculated, with selectable options of 12, 6, and 3 months.
CP1 and CP2: These are the economic zones whose CPI data are being compared. The options include CPI from various regions like the EU, USA, UK, etc.
Calculating and Comparing Changes:
Calculates the annual change for each CPI and then computes the difference between these two changes.
Trading Utility
In trading, CPI variations are key indicators of inflation within different economic regions. Monetary policy decisions by central banks, heavily influenced by these data, significantly impact financial markets, especially in forex and bond markets.
Monetary Policy Forecasting:
If inflation in one region is significantly higher than in another, the central bank might raise interest rates, potentially strengthening that region's currency.
Currency Trading Strategy:
Traders might use this indicator to speculate on currency pair movements. For example, if US CPI is rising faster than the EU CPI, this might suggest a potential appreciation of the USD against the EUR.
Macroeconomic Analysis:
Understanding where inflation pressures are strongest can guide longer-term investment decisions, such as choosing between emerging and developed markets.
[BT] NedDavis Series: CPI Minus 5-Year Moving Average🟧 GENERAL
The script works on the Monthly Timeframe and has 2 main settings (explained in FEATURES ). It uses the US CPI data, reported by the Bureau of Labour Statistics.
🔹Functionality 1: The main idea is to plot the distance between the CPI line and the 5 year moving average of the CPI line. This technique in mathematics is called "deviation from the moving average". This technique is used to analyse how has CPI previously acted and can give clues at what it might do in the future. Economic historians use such analysis, together with specific period analysis to predict potential risks in the future (see an example of such analysis in HOW TO USE section. The mathematical technique is a simple subtraction between 2 points (CPI - 5yr SMA of CPI).
▶︎Interpretation for deviation from a moving average:
Positive Deviation: When the line is above its moving average, it indicates that the current value is higher than the average, suggesting potential strength or bullish sentiment.
Negative Deviation: Conversely, when the line falls below its moving average, it suggests weakness or bearish sentiment as the current value is lower than the average.
▶︎Applications:
Trend Identification: Deviations from moving averages can help identify trends, with sustained deviations indicating strong trends.
Reversal Signals: Significant deviations from moving averages may signal potential trend reversals, especially when combined with other technical indicators.
Volatility Measurement: Monitoring the magnitude of deviations can provide insights into market volatility and price movements.
Remember the indicator is applying this only for the US CPI - not the ticker you apply the indicator on!
🔹Functionality 2: It plots on a new pane below information about the Consumer Price Index. You can also find the information by plotting the ticker symbol USACPIALLMINMEI on TradingView, which is a Monthly economic data by the OECD for the CPI in the US. The only addition you would get from the indicator is the plot of the 5 year Simple Moving Average.
🔹What is the US Consumer Price Index?
Measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers;
Traders care about the CPI because consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
It is measured as the average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics;
FEATURES OF INDICATOR
1) The US Consumer Price Index Minus the Five Year Moving Average of the same.
As shown on the picture above and explained in previous section. Here a more detailed view.
2) The actual US Consumer Price Index (Annual Rate of change) and the Five year average of the US Consumer Price Index. Explained above and shown below:
To activate 2) go into settings and toggle the check box.
HOW TO USE
It can be used for a fundamental analysis on the relationship between the stock market, the economy and the Feds decisions to hike or cut rates, whose main mandate is to control inflation over time.
I have created this indicator to show my analysis in this idea:
What does a First Fed Rate cut really mean?
CREDITS
I have seen such idea in the past posted by the institutional grade research of NedDavis and have recreated it for the TradingView platform, open-source for the community.
Temporal Value Tracker: Inception-to-Present Inflation Lens!What we're looking at here is a chart that does more than just display the price of gold. It offers us a time-traveling perspective on value. The blue line, that's our nominal price—it's the straightforward market price of gold over time. But it's the red line that takes us on a deeper journey. This line adjusts the nominal price for inflation, showing us the real purchasing power of gold.
Now, when we talk about 'real value,' we're not just philosophizing. We're anchoring our prices to a point in time when the journey began—let's say when gold trading started on the markets, or any inception point we choose. By 'shadowing' certain years—say, from the 1970s when the gold standard was abandoned—we can adjust this chart to reflect what the inflation-adjusted price means since that key moment in history.
By doing so, we're effectively isolating our view to start from that pivotal year, giving us insight into how gold, or indeed any asset, has held up against the backdrop of economic changes, policy shifts, and the inevitable rise in the cost of living. If you're analyzing a stock index like the S&P 500, you might begin your inflation-adjusted view from the index's inception date, which allows you to measure the true growth of the market basket from the moment it started.
This adjustment isn't just academic. It influences how we perceive value and growth. Consider a period where the nominal price skyrockets. We might toast to our brilliance in investment! But if the inflation-adjusted line lags, what we're seeing is nominal growth without real gains. On the other hand, if our red line outpaces the blue even during stagnant market periods, we're witnessing real growth—our asset is outperforming the eroding effects of inflation.
Every asset class can be evaluated this way. Stocks, bonds, real estate—they all have their historical narratives, and inflation adjustment tells us if these stories are tales of genuine growth or illusions masked by inflation.
So, as informed traders and investors, we need to keep our eyes on this inflation-adjusted line. It's our measure against the silent thief that is inflation. It ensures we're not just keeping up with the Joneses of the market, but actually outpacing them, building real wealth over time
1995-Present - Inflation and Purchasing PowerGood day, everyone! Today, we're going to look at a chart that's a bit different from the usual price charts we analyse. This isn't just any chart; it's a lens into the past, adjusted for the reality of inflation—a concept we often hear about but seldom see directly applied to our trading charts.
What we have here is an 'Inflation Adjusted Price' indicator on TradingView, and it's doing something quite special. It's showing us the price of our asset, let's say the S&P 500, not just in today's dollars, but in the dollars of 1995. Why 1995, you ask? Well, it's the starting point we've chosen to measure how much actual buying power has changed since then.
So, every point on this red line we see represents what the S&P 500's value would be if we stripped away the effects of inflation. This is the price in terms of what your money could actually buy you back in 1995.
As traders and investors, we're always looking at prices going up and thinking, 'Great! My investment is growing!' But the real question we should ask is, 'Is my money growing in real terms? Can it buy me more than it did last year, or five, ten, or twenty-five years ago?'
This chart tells us exactly that. If the red line is above the actual price, it means that the S&P 500 has not just grown in nominal terms, but it has actually outpaced inflation. Your investment has grown in real terms; it can buy you more now than it could back in 1995.
On the flip side, if the red line is below the actual price, that's a sign that while the nominal price might be up, the real value, the purchasing power, hasn't grown as much or could even have fallen.
This view is crucial, especially for the long-term investors among us. It gives us a reality check on our investments and savings. Are we truly growing our wealth, or are we just keeping up with the cost of living? This indicator answers that.
Remember, the true measure of financial growth is not just the numbers on a chart. It's what you can do with those numbers—how much bread, or eggs, or yes, even houses, you can buy with your hard-earned money
BTC Purchasing Power 2009-20XX! Hello, today I'm going to show you something that shifts our perspective on Bitcoin's value, not just in nominal terms, but adjusted for the real buying power over the years. This Pine Script TAS developed for TradingView does exactly that by taking into account inflation rates from 2009 to the present.
As you know, inflation erodes the purchasing power of money. That $100 in 2009 does not buy you the same amount in goods or services today. The same concept applies to Bitcoin. While we often look at its price in terms of dollars, pounds, or euros, it's crucial to understand what that price really means in terms of purchasing power.
What this script does is adjust the price of Bitcoin for cumulative inflation since 2009, allowing us to see not just how the nominal price has changed, but how its value as a means of purchasing goods and services has evolved.
For example, if we see Bitcoin's price at $60,000 today, that number might seem high compared to its early years. However, when we adjust this price for inflation, we might find that in terms of 2009's purchasing power, the effective price might be somewhat lower. This adjusted price gives us a more accurate reflection of Bitcoin's true value over time.
This script plots two lines on the chart:
The Original BTC Price: This is the unadjusted price of Bitcoin as we typically see it.
BTC Purchasing Power: This line shows Bitcoin's price adjusted for inflation, reflecting how many goods or services Bitcoin could buy at that point in time compared to 2009.
By comparing these lines, we can observe periods where Bitcoin's purchasing power significantly increased, even if the nominal price was not at its peak. This can help us identify moments when Bitcoin was undervalued or overvalued in real terms.
This analysis is crucial for long-term investors and traders who want to understand Bitcoin's value beyond the surface-level price movements. It helps us appreciate Bitcoin's potential as a store of value, especially in contexts where traditional currencies are losing purchasing power due to inflation.
Remember, investing is not just about riding price waves; it's about understanding the underlying value. And that's precisely what this script helps us to uncover
Inflation IndicatorThis script provides a great view of Year-over-Year (YoY) inflation rates for key countries.
The inflation data used per default are TradingView Tickers, but you can change them to anything you want from the settings.
There is no calculation in this script, all it does is providing a overview of inflation rates in a single indicator.
Inflation data for the USA, European Union, Australia, Canada, Switzerland, Japan, United Kingdom, and New Zealand (Inflation Symbols editable in the settings)
Customizable static line to indicate a specific threshold value (default: 2.0).
Table displaying country flags, names, and the latest inflation rates.
Country-representative colors for easy identification.
Economic Events: FOMC, CPI, PPI, NFP, etcThis script plots vertical lines on major U.S. economic events that can impact a trading day. Allowing you to decide if you want to trade on that day or to help with back testing (limited in how far back one can go).
The indicator preview chart doesn't show the vertical lines for whatever reason.
Here is a snapshot image.
This is completely different code from Economic Calendar Events: FOMC, CPI, and more by @jdehorty and uses different logic but provides similar features using the same public library for U.S. economic events.
Differences:
Substantial Improved Performance.
Legend setting to only show when there is an event today.
Abbreviations for events.
More Legend Settings (Position, Text Size, Color...)
WARNING: Does NOT use the same 'built-in logic to retroactively adjust larger time intervals' , so possible there could be differences but shouldn't be. No noticeable difference on USDJPY.
Note: Was purposely made to not work on timeframes greater than one day.
Economic Events
FOMC Meetings
FOMC Minutes
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP)
To read a description of the economic events see Economic Calendar Events: FOMC, CPI, and more by @jdehorty
This script uses economic data from Library "EconomicCalendar" and will be updated when said library is updated.
Offset ProjectIntended for use with CPI symbols like:
CPIAUCNS (all items)
CPILFENS (core)
Shows the CPI values from a year ago, next to the current values. This makes it easier to visualize the base effects .
Has a ' max inflation rate ' parameter. This is shown as a red line. So for example, if it's set to 3, then CPI must stay below the red line in in order for the inflation rate to stay below 3.
[Tommy's Inflation Index]#Inflation #FEDWATCH #FA
Hello dear beloved Traders and Investors around the world! As you are aware, the world is on a fierce battle against the inflation caused by the massive QE (Quantitative Easing) after the pandemic. All we see on the news is about this very world-wide fiscal phenomenon and how central bank of each nation are controlling it with their monetary policies. Consequently, FED’s hawkish stance to maintain tightening position has suppressed our market. The interest rates have spiked more rapidly than ever absorbing all the cash in the market.
The confrontation between Inflation Vs. Recession currently is the most integral and yet complex issue that needs to be wisely dealt with. Anyhow, whether we want it or not, the markets are being directly impacted by the tension of this inflation war. Hence, traders and investors should keep our eyes on the circumstances and trends of macro-economy to possibly comprehend, forecast, and prepare for the upcoming events. Economic indexes and data are always to be regularly monitored. Especially, inflation related indexes such as CPI (Consumer Price Index), PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure), PPI (Produce Price Index) and Michigan inflation have stronger interrelation with the market these days.
Tradingview provides many economic indexes and data as you can see in the economy sector of the symbol search. I have found it quite useful to track the macro economy analyzing these data. As globally, people generally refer to the YoY (Year over year) and MoM (Month over month) since the relative percentage change rate is the key factor. There are raw data of CPI, PCE, PPI as well as the core of all these etc. on Tradingview. But unfortunately, there are no YoY and MoM (Only a few) data. Don’t worry. Today is your lucky day because I made them myself for you.
Today I wish to share the “Inflation Index” that I have been working during the Korean’s New Year Holidays. It automatically computes and visualizes the CPI, core CPI, PCE, core PCE, PPI, and core PPI both YoY and MoM. It might show you wrong values or errors if your chart is not on Monthly timeframe. By the way core inflation is goods and services sectors, excluding food and energy. If you check ‘Core or not?’ box, it distinguishes the regular and core indexes. I am going to regularly update this inflation index on pine script, so go ahead. It’s all yours!
Your subscription, likes, and comments inspire me a lot!
#인플레이션 #연준 #FA
안녕하세요 트레이더 여러분 토미입니다!
과도한 양적완화 여파로 생긴 인플레이션 사태를 잡기 위해 미국 연준을 포함한 각국의 중앙은행은 이례적으로 강력한 긴축정책을 펼치고 있습니다. 특히 그 어느때보다 연준의 FOMC 회의 및 기준 금리 변경 사안에 영향을 미칠 만한 여러 경제 지표들에 시장이 민감하게 반응하는 실정입니다. 여기 계신 분이라면 요즘 CPI(소비자물가지수), PCE(개인소비지출물가지수), PPI(생산자물가지수), 그리고 미시간 물가지수 등 미국 인플레이션 관련 지수들이 얼마나 중요한지 알고 계시리라 생각합니다. 코인, 주식, 선물 등 종목을 불문하고 우리가 원하던 원하지 않던 애네들 발표될 때마다 시장이 미친듯이 요동치는 사실은 부정할 수 없습니다.
최근 트레이딩뷰도 많은 경제 지표들을 제공해주고 있습니다. 우리가 자주 보는 CPI, PCE, 그리고 PPI도 있지만 우리가 통상적으로 참고하는 인플레이션 수치는 해당 지표들의 YoY(전년대비)와 MoM(전월대비)입니다. 아쉽게 트레이딩뷰에는 YoY와 MoM 수치가 없어서 대부분 뭐 인베스팅닷컴이나 구글 이런 곳에서 보셨을 겁니다. 그래서 그냥 제가 트레이딩뷰에서도 쉽게 열람할 수 있게 만들어버렸습니다. CPI, PCE, PPI, 근원 CPI, 근원 PCE, 그리고 근원 PPI의 YoY와 MoM 지수를 쉽게 볼 수 있게 디자인했습니다. 설날에 집에 짱박혀서 코딩만 했네요. 차트 상단 지표(Indicator)에 Tommy’s Inflation Index 검색 후 클릭하시면 사용하실 수 있습니다. 참고로 차트가 월봉으로 되어있지 않으면 오류가 발생할 가능성이 높으니 이 점 양해바랍니다. 지표 즐겨찾기에 추가 해놓고 중간중간 필요할 때 켜서 보시면 될 것 같습니다. 이 지표는 제가 주기적으로 업데이트 할 예정이니 앞으로도 많은 관심 부탁드립니다.
여러분의 구독, 좋아요, 댓글은 저에게 큰 동기부여가 된답니다~
Markets vs Inflation [x7.am]Markets vs Inflation(CPI US) also known as Inflation-Adjusted Return.
The inflation-adjusted return is the measure of return that takes into account the time period's inflation rate. The purpose of the inflation-adjusted return metric is to reveal the return on an investment after removing the effects of inflation.
Removing the effects of inflation from the return of an investment allows the investor to see the true earning potential of the security without external economic forces. The inflation-adjusted return is also known as the real rate of return or required rate of return adjusted for inflation. It is a more accurate measure of investment performance than the nominal rate of return.
The inflation-adjusted return accounts for the effect of inflation on an investment's performance over time.
Also known as the real return, the inflation-adjusted return provides a more realistic comparison of an investment's performance.
Inflation will lower the size of a positive return and increase the magnitude of a loss.
Assume you have saved $10,000 to buy a car but decide to invest the money for a year before buying to ensure that you have a small cash cushion left over after getting the car. Earning 5% interest, you have $10,500 after 12 months. However, because prices increased by 3% during the same period due to inflation, the same car now costs $10,300.
Consequently, the amount of money that remains after you buy the car—which represents your increase in purchasing power—is $200, or 2% of your initial investment. This is your real rate of return, as it represents the amount that you gained after accounting for the effects of inflation.
Markets vs Inflation indicators use in 1 months interval
SP:SPX , INDEX:BTCUSD , TVC:GOLD , TVC:DJI
Odd_mod Econ CalendarA modification of Economic Calendar Events: FOMC, CPI, and more written by jdehorty . Please send all tips his way as he is maintaining the underlying data for the Calendar and the original concept.
List of changes:
Optimized code, will only run once on initialization now(No random line in middle of screen on bar change)
Legend - Added short names
Legend - Removed header
Legend - Made repositionable with selectable top margins
Legend - Removed data name from legend when it is disabled
Legend - Removed border
Original Description by jdehorty :
This script plots major events from the Economic Calendar that often correspond to major pivot points in various markets. It also includes built-in logic to retroactively adjust larger time intervals (i.e. greater than 1 hour) to be correctly aligned with the interval during which the event occurred.
Events are taken from the Economic Calendar and will be updated periodically at the following library:
EconomicCalendar
The above library can be used to conveniently access date-related data for major Meetings, Releases, and Announcements as integer arrays, which can be used in other indicators. Currently, it has support for the following events:
FOMC Meetings
The FOMC meets eight times a year to determine the course of monetary policy . The FOMC's decisions are based on a review of economic and financial developments and its assessment of the likely effects of these developments on the economic outlook.
FOMC Minutes
The FOMC minutes are released three weeks after each FOMC meeting. The minutes provide a detailed account of the FOMC's discussion of economic and financial developments and its assessment of the likely effects of these developments on the economic outlook.
Producer Price Index (PPI) Releases
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures changes in the price level of goods and services sold by domestic producers. The PPI is a weighted average of prices of a basket of goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. PPI is a leading indicator of CPI .
Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) Releases
The Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) measures changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by households. The CPI is a weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. CPI is one of the most widely used measures of inflation .
Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) Releases
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) is a measure of consumer attitudes about the economy. The CSI is based on a monthly survey of U.S. households and reflects the consumers' assessment of present and future economic conditions. The CSI is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Consumer Confidence Index ( CCI ) Releases
The Consumer Confidence Index is a survey that measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation.
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Releases
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) is a measure of the change in the number of employed persons, excluding farm workers and government employees. The NFP is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Economic Calendar (Import from Spreadsheet)This script draws vertical lines to mark Economic Calendar Events.
Datetime of events is defined by user in Settings via a standardized line of text.
Motivation for coding this script:
All traders should be aware of economic calendar events. At times, when you really need to pay attention to an upcoming major event, you might even decide to use the vertical-line drawing tool to mark it. However, this takes manual effort.
This script provides a solution to performing mundane tasks such as drawing vertical lines and dragging them ever so slightly, just to have them approximately aligned with exact time.
Parameters:
(1) Source data - String representation of collection of datetime referencing to Economic Calendar Events
(2) Line color, & (3) Width of line - For displaying vertical lines drawn by script.
Standardized format for Source Data :
Example:
If 'GMT;2022,6,1,14,0,0;2022,6,2,12,15,0;' is provided to PineScript, then two vertical lines will be drawn on June 6, 2022 according to the exact time in 'YYYY,MM,DD,hh,mm,ss' format at the specified timezone (GMT in this case).
Template for Source Data :
Included here, link below, is a shared Google Sheet that systematically processes Economic Calendar data provided in the 'Raw Data' tab.
drive.google.com
Users are advised to use their preferred methods* to format the string (for source data param.), and apply their own criteria to sort down the Events. (ie. only include Events of High Impact, etc.)
* Preferred methods (as mentioned above) does not mean being limited to using the template as provided in this post.
Economic Calendar Events: FOMC, CPI, and moreThis script plots major events from the Economic Calendar that often correspond to major pivot points in various markets. It also includes built-in logic to retroactively adjust larger time intervals (i.e. greater than 1 hour) to be correctly aligned with the interval during which the event occurred.
Events are taken from the Economic Calendar and will be updated periodically at the following library:
The above library can be used to conveniently access date-related data for major Meetings, Releases, and Announcements as integer arrays, which can be used in other indicators. Currently, it has support for the following events:
FOMC Meetings
The FOMC meets eight times a year to determine the course of monetary policy. The FOMC's decisions are based on a review of economic and financial developments and its assessment of the likely effects of these developments on the economic outlook.
FOMC Minutes
The FOMC minutes are released three weeks after each FOMC meeting. The minutes provide a detailed account of the FOMC's discussion of economic and financial developments and its assessment of the likely effects of these developments on the economic outlook.
Producer Price Index (PPI) Releases
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures changes in the price level of goods and services sold by domestic producers. The PPI is a weighted average of prices of a basket of goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. PPI is a leading indicator of CPI.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Releases
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by households. The CPI is a weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. CPI is one of the most widely used measures of inflation.
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) Releases
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is a measure of consumer attitudes about the economy. The CSI is based on a monthly survey of U.S. households and reflects the consumers' assessment of present and future economic conditions. The CSI is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Releases
The Consumer Confidence Index is a survey that measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation.
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Releases
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) is a measure of the change in the number of employed persons, excluding farm workers and government employees. The NFP is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
EconomicCalendarLibrary "EconomicCalendar"
This library is a data provider for important dates and times from the Economic Calendar.
events()
Returns the list of dates supported by this library as a string array.
Returns: array : Names of events supported by this library
fomcMeetings()
Gets the FOMC Meeting Dates. The FOMC meets eight times a year to determine the course of monetary policy. The FOMC announces its decision on the federal funds rate at the conclusion of each meeting and also issues a statement that provides information on the economic outlook and the Committee's assessment of the risks to the outlook.
Returns: array : FOMC Meeting Dates as timestamps
fomcMinutes()
Gets the FOMC Meeting Minutes Dates. The FOMC Minutes are released three weeks after each FOMC meeting. The Minutes provide information on the Committee's deliberations and decisions at the meeting.
Returns: array : FOMC Meeting Minutes Dates as timestamps
ppiReleases()
Gets the Producer Price Index (PPI) Dates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The PPI is a leading indicator of CPI, and CPI is a leading indicator of inflation.
Returns: array : PPI Dates as timestamps
cpiReleases()
Gets the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Rekease Dates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. The CPI is a leading indicator of inflation.
Returns: array : CPI Dates as timestamps
csiReleases()
Gets the CSI release dates. The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is a survey of consumer attitudes about the economy and their personal finances. The CSI is a leading indicator of consumer spending.
Returns: array : CSI Dates as timestamps
cciReleases()
Gets the CCI release dates. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a survey of consumer attitudes about the economy and their personal finances. The CCI is a leading indicator of consumer spending.
Returns: array : CCI Dates as timestamps
nfpReleases()
Gets the NFP release dates. Nonfarm payrolls is an employment report released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that measures the change in the number of employed people in the United States.
Returns: array : NFP Dates as timestamps
Annualizer: New Indicator + CPI AnalysisThis indicator calculates the annualized month-over-month percent change of a cumulative index and plots it alongside the year-over-year percent change for comparison. It was developed for the purpose of analyzing the inflation rate of CPI indexes such as “CPIAUCSL.” It can also be used on M2 money supply and pretty much any cumulative index. It will not produce useful outputs on percent change indexes such as “USCCPI” because it performs percent change calculations which are already applied to those indexes.
This indicator takes data from the monthly chart, regardless of how often the data is reported or what the timeframe of the current chart is. Doing so allows it to work on all timeframes while displaying only monthly data outputs but limits it from recognizing data which might be released more often than once per month. This limitation should be suitable for macroeconomic data such as CPI and M2 money supply which are usually analyzed on a month-to-month basis.
If the ticker symbol is "M2SL" which is M2 money supply, annualized percent change is plotted in green, otherwise, it’s plotted in blue.
CPI analysis:
Upon deploying this indicator, it was observed that the year-over-year (YoY) inflation rate (red) is a lagging indicator of the annualized month-over-month (MoM) inflation rate (blue) and that it appears to almost be a moving average of it. A moving average plot was temporarily added for comparison to the YoY and it was found that the difference between the two plots is negligible and that for the purposes of high-level analysis of inflation, the two plots can be considered to be no different from one another. Below is a screenshot for demonstration. Notice how closely the white 12-month SMA of the annualized rate tracks the YoY rate.
For other indexes which may see more dramatic changes month-over-month such as M2 money supply, the difference between the two signals becomes more pronounced but they are still comparable. The conclusion is that the YoY inflation rate can be considered to be a 12-month simple moving average of the annualized MoM rate.
12-month SMA:
It’s easy to see and stands to reason that if the annualized MoM inflation rate (blue) remains where it has been for the previous 2 months YoY inflation (red) will begin falling and eventually reach similar levels due to its moving-average-like behavior. This will bring us back to the 2% YoY inflation target of the Fed within no more than 10 months. There may be a perception that deflation is required to bring prices back down to the purple channel of CPI to make prices pre-Covid "normal" again. We were headed in that direction in July with a slightly negative MoM CPI read. What may have freaked investors out about the August report (most recent as of this writing) is that the inflation rate, rather than continuing into negative deflationary territory, has bounced back into positive territory.
M2 money supply isn’t an integral part of this analysis, but it helps demonstrate the indicator. It can be observed that CPI growth lags M2 money supply growth which seems to have leveled off.
I’m not a macroeconomist so I’m probably missing some things, but I do not see a lagging indicator such as YoY inflation being at 8.25% while annualized MoM inflation is at 1.42% as something to freak out about as investors have seemingly done. I’m a stock market bear as of last week, but I do not feel this CPI analysis strongly supports a bearish thesis, nor is it bullish. Next month’s annualized MoM % change may begin to sway me one way or the other depending on what this chart looks like when it’s updated.
CPI and PPIMarket tracker of the year-on-year (YoY) change in inflation (both PPI Finished Goods and CPI).
Useful for identifying the turns in market conditions, and therefore helps with anticipation of changes in monitory policy.
This metric can be used to inform about current market conditions and potential risk=reward outcomes in the future.
Quantity Theory of Money (Inflation Growth Rate)Quantity Theory of Money ( Inflation Growth Rate)
Equation:
%ΔM+%ΔV=%ΔP+%ΔY
M - Money Supply , V - Money Velocity , Y - Real GDP, P - Price
This script only takes into account money supply theory and does not account for increases/decreases in inflation due to energy costs. QTM Calculation is compared to USIRYY , USCCPI , and Sticky Price CPI . Flex_CPI and Flex_Core_CPI are not available in Trading View for comparison.
Simple Moving Average Default it set to 3 quarters for smoothing purposes. You can change this via the input window as you see fit.
Taylor RuleThe Taylor rule is a simple formula that John Taylor devised to guide policymakers. It calculates what the federal funds rate should be, as a function of the output gap and current inflation. Here, we measure the output gap as the difference between potential output and real GDP. Inflation is measured by changes in the CPI, and we use a target inflation rate of 2%. We also assume a steady-state real interest rate of 2%.
Total Inflation ModelMeasure of the total economy wide inflation of the US Dollar.
Total Inflation = growth rate of money supply / economic output
Real Interest Rate DifferentialThe Real IRD is a simple indicator built for forex trades that need a long-term view and want to compare currencies in search of high yield. The indicated interest rate maturity is 2 years, since shorter maturities may not price central banks' monetary policy decisions.
Example:
- You need to do an analysis of the AUDUSD
- In the Interest Rate 1 field, we put the interest rate for the base currency, in this case the AUD
- In the Interest Rate 2 field, the interest rate of the other currency, in this case the USD
- In the CPI 1 field, inflation referring to base currency
- In the CPI 2 field, inflation for another currency
CPI Codes:
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_USA < USD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_EUR < EUR
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_JPN < JPY
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_CHE < CHF
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_GBR < GBP
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_CAN < CAD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_RUS < RUB
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_AUS < AUD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_NZL < NZD
